Tennessee-Alabama, according to GRT’s Hat Guy

When the lines came out this week, Vegas had Tennessee as a 9.5-point underdog to the Crimson Tide with an over/under of 48. As I write this, the Vols are now +8.5, and the over/under is 47.5. Hat Guy thinks it’s more of a coin flip.

Tennessee vs Alabama, according to Hat Guy

From Alabama’s perspective

Tennessee’s defense is allowing an average of 17 points per game. The best scoring defense comps are:

  • Texas 16.3
  • Texas A&M 19.9
  • Mississippi 23.8
  • Arkansas 25.1

Alabama’s points against those teams:

  • Texas 24
  • Texas A&M 26
  • Mississippi 24
  • Arkansas 24

Alabama’s offensive premium/discount: 115%

Tennessee’s offense is scoring an average of 32.5 points per game. The best scoring offense comps are:

  • Texas A&M 32.3
  • Mississippi State 30.2
  • Texas 35
  • Arkansas 29.9

Alabama’s defensive performance against those teams:

  • Texas A&M 20
  • Mississippi State 17
  • Texas 34
  • Arkansas 21

Alabama’s defensive premium/discount: 72%

Estimated score: Alabama 19.6, Tennessee 23.4

From Tennessee’s perspective

Alabama’s defense is allowing an average of 16 points per game. The best scoring defense comps are:

  • Texas A&M 19.9
  • Florida 20
  • UTSA 27.7
  • South Carolina 31.3

Tennessee’s points against those teams:

  • Texas A&M 20
  • Florida 16
  • UTSA 45
  • South Carolina 41

Tennessee’s offensive premium/discount: 123%

Alabama’s offense is scoring an average of 30.1 points per game. The best scoring offense comps are:

  • Florida 29.1
  • South Carolina 29
  • Texas A&M 32.3
  • UTSA 27.8

Tennessee’s defensive performance against those teams:

  • Florida 29
  • South Carolina 20
  • Texas A&M 13
  • UTSA 14

Tennessee’s defensive premium/discount: 64%

Estimated score: Tennessee 19.7, Alabama 19.3

Combined Estimated Score

SPM Final Estimates

Throw it in, cook it up, take a peek:

HomeHome PointsAwayAway PointsFavoriteSpreadHome RYAway RYHome PYAway PY
Alabama19.5Tennessee21.6Tennessee-2.1109.3169.3195.5144.9

Hat Guy actually likes the Vols to win a squeaker this weekend. He disagrees with the Vegas opening spread by 11.6 points. His over/under, by the way, is 41.1, which is far below the over/under according to Vegas.

Guts and Eyeballs

Hat Guy is home-field agnostic. A traditional 3-point bump for the home team would make Alabama a 1-point favorite with Hat Guy’s numbers. The only thing that causes concern is that Tennessee’s offensive premium is based on putting up strong numbers against overmatched teams. Against good defensive teams, there isn’t really a premium at all, which would put the Vols’ points right at Alabama’s average scoring defense of 16. That’s still a 3-point game, 6 if you add the home field advantage. But even under this scenario, the Vols still cover and are still within a touchdown of winning. So guts and eyeballs tell me Alabama 20, Tennessee 16.

Other predictions from other systems

Vegas’ opening numbers suggest a score of something like Alabama 29, Tennessee 19 or . Bill Connelly’s SP+ likes Alabama 28, 23 (Tide -4.9).

Bottom line

  • Vegas opening: Alabama -9.5 (~Alabama 29, Tennessee 19)
  • Vegas current: Alabama -8.5 (~Alabama 28, Tennessee 19)
  • Hat Guy: Vols -2.1 (Tennessee 21.6, Alabama 19.5; Vols 22, Tide 20) (Alabama does not cover)
  • SP+: Alabama – 4.9 (Alabama 28, Tennessee 23) (Alabama does not cover)
  • Guts and Eyeballs: Alabama -4 (Alabama 20, Tennessee 16)

What do y’all think?

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SpeedyWillie
SpeedyWillie
7 months ago

Alabama’s offense has been impressively consistent against good defenses (24, 26, 24, 24). I’m going to go out on a limb and project 24 points for them tomorrow.