Category Archives: Football

Opt-outs will make us rethink the way a list like this works, but Joe Milton will find his way to the spirit of the idea here:

Tennessee Full-Season Starters at QB, Last 20 Years

• Joe Milton, 2023 (regular season)
• Josh Dobbs, 2015 & 2016
• Tyler Bray, 2012 (Justin Worley subbed in during the loss to Vandy in Derek Dooley’s last game)
• Jonathan Crompton, 2009
• Erik Ainge, 2007

Andy Kelly, Heath Shuler, Peyton Manning, Tee Martin, and Casey Clausen gave the Vols the same face at quarterback every Saturday for 11 of 14 seasons from 1990-2003. Since then, it’s technically only happened with Ainge, Crompton, and Dobbs four times in 20 years. As Milton finishes his Tennessee career on his own terms, a tip of the cap to his steadfast nature. Other than Hendon Hooker, the last starting quarterback to throw 20+ TD passes with five or fewer interceptions was Peyton Manning. All the best to him in pursuit of the NFL.

As for Nico Iamaleava, he’ll pursue the Iowa defense. The Hawkeyes are second nationally in SP+ in that department, giving the five-star freshman real live first in his first meaningful action. Given our strength of schedule around here, a new QB facing a good team isn’t exactly a new idea:

Vol QB First Starts vs Ranked Teams, Post-Fulmer Era

• 2023 Nico Iamaleava vs #20 Iowa
• 2020 Harrison Bailey vs #6 Florida
• 2019 Brian Maurer vs #3 Georgia
• 2013 Josh Dobbs at #9 Missouri
• 2013 Nathan Peterman at #19 Florida
• 2011 Justin Worley vs #13 South Carolina

The Georgia team Maurer faced finished the 2019 season with the best defense in the country in SP+; Iowa’s currently rates higher (8.2 points allowed vs the average team, compared to 10.0 for 2019 Georgia). So the Hawkeyes, at least in the spreadsheets, present as stiff of a defensive challenge as any Vol QB has seen in their first start (give or take your opinion of Peyton Manning vs ’94 Washington State if anyone wants to remember those days of 10-9 glory).

When we researched some of this as the Vols were trying to find their way at quarterback in 2019 & 2020, we found that sometimes that first step is a real doozy, where even future greats like Dobbs fail to produce a single offensive touchdown. If Iowa’s defense lives up to their name and controls the Citrus Bowl, it won’t spell certain doom for the 2024 Vol offense.

The biggest difference here, of course, is Tennessee.

This isn’t a struggling Vol team making a mid-season change at QB. Even at 8-4, this Tennessee team is plenty capable…and it’ll be exciting to see how Nico impacts the math.

If you want a semi-relevant historical comparison, the closest we can come is probably 2006, when Jonathan Crompton took over for an injured Erik Ainge to face LSU (who finished #1 in SP+ and #2 in defense) then Arkansas (15th in defense). Those Vols were good, game, and a bad call on a fumble away from taking down the Tigers in Knoxville. Those opponents obviously offered more in terms of offense than Iowa should as well, etc.

But in terms of an exciting young quarterback playing on a good Tennessee team going against a great defense? And just in terms of pure intrigue, the ways this performance could color the conversation headed into 2024?

This match-up is a pretty good one.

Go Vols.

Congrats to longtime friend of the blog birdjam for taking home the 2023 regular season picks contest trophy! It was a really tight race this season, with his 2,309 confidence points narrowly eclipsing boro wvvol (2,302) and wedflatrock (2,301). Full Top 10 at the bottom of this post.

We’re on to the postseason (and Orlando!). You can find our bowl pick ’em back at Fun Office Pools; previous players should’ve received an email invite today. Find us in the comments if you have any questions – good luck out there!

Regular Season Top 10

1. birdjam 2309
2. boro wvvol 2302
3. wedflatrock 2301
4. UNDirish60 2295
5. PAVolFan 2292
6. Jahiegel 2282
7. cnyvol 2276
8. joeb_1 2259
9. TennRebel 2254
10. jfarrar90 2251
11. mmmjtx 2251

Tennessee opened as a 26-point favorite over Vanderbilt this week with an over/under of 55.5. Currently, those numbers are 27 and 57. Hat Guy thinks the spread is right on the nose, but he likes the over.

Tennessee vs Vanderbilt, according to Hat Guy

From Tennessee’s perspective

Vanderbilt’s defense is allowing an average of 35.1 points per game. The best scoring defense comps are:

• Virginia 31.8
• Connecticut 30.9
• Florida 27.9
• South Carolina 27.3
• UTSA 24.3
• Kentucky 24.3

Tennessee’s points against those teams:

• Virginia 49
• Connecticut 59
• Florida 16
• South Carolina 41
• Kentucky 33
• UTSA 45

Tennessee’s offensive premium/discount: 146%

Vanderbilt’s offense is scoring an average of 22.7 points per game. The best scoring offense comps are:

• Virginia 23.8
• Connecticut 18
• South Carolina 27.7
• Kentucky 27.7
• Florida 29.6
• Missouri 32.8

Tennessee’s defensive performance against those teams:

• Virginia 13
• Connecticut 3
• South Carolina 20
• Kentucky 27
• Florida 29
• Missouri 36

Tennessee’s defensive premium/discount: 80%

Estimated score: Tennessee 51.2, Vanderbilt 18.2

From Vanderbilt’s perspective

Tennessee’s defense is allowing an average of 21.8 points per game. The best scoring defense comps are:

• Auburn 21.5
• Missouri 23.1
• Mississippi 23.7
• Kentucky 24.3
• UNLV 24.5
• Wake Forest 26.5

Vanderbilt’s points against those teams:

• Auburn 15
• Missouri 21
• Mississippi 7
• Kentucky 28
• UNLV 37
• Wake Forest 20

Vanderbilt’s offensive premium/discount: 89%

Tennessee’s offense is scoring an average of 30 points per game. The best scoring offense comps are:

• Florida 29.6
• Kentucky 27.7
• South Carolina 27.7
• Auburn 27.5
• Missouri 32.8
• UNLV 35.9

Vanderbilt’s defensive performance against those teams:

• Florida 38
• South Carolina 47
• Kentucky 45
• Auburn 31
• Missouri 38
• UNLV 40

Vanderbilt’s defensive premium/discount: 132%

Estimated score: Vanderbilt 19.4, Tennessee 39.6

Combined Estimated Score

Home	Home Points	Away	Away Points	Favorite	Spread	Home RY	Away RY	Home PY	Away PY
Tennessee	45.4	Vanderbilt	18.8	Tennessee	-26.6	241.9	71.5	279.1	235.3

Hat Guy thinks this one is a push, but he likes the over.

Guts and Eyeballs

That looks about right to me.

Other predictions from other systems

Vegas’ opening numbers suggest a score of something like Tennessee 41, Vanderbilt 15, give or take. Bill Connelly’s SP+ projects a score of Tennessee 42, Vandy 14 (Vols -25.5.)

Bottom line

• Vegas opening: Tennessee -26 (~Vols 41, Commodores 15)
• Vegas current: Tennessee -27 (Vols 42, Commodores 15)
• Hat Guy: Tennessee -26.6 (Vols 45, Commodores 19) (Vols barely cover opening, but barely not closing)
• SP+: Tennessee -25.5 (Vols 42, Commodores 14 (Vols don’t cover either spread, but only barely)
• Guts and Eyeballs: Same as Hat Guy

What do y’all think?

Happy Thanksgiving, y’all. It’s Rivalry Week as the No. 21 Tennessee Volunteers host the Vanderbilt Commodores this afternoon at 3:30 on the SEC Network. It’s up against the Iron Bowl, as No. 8 Alabama travels to Auburn at the same time on CBS.

The day kicks off with a huge Top 5 matchup with playoff implications as No. 2 Ohio State goes to No. 3 Michigan. That one’s on Fox at noon. The evenling slate includes games between No. 5 Florida State and Florida (7:00, ESPN), No. 1 Georgia and Georgia Tech (7:30, ABC), and No. 24 Clemson and South Carolina (7:30, SECN).

The full GRT college football TV schedule for today is at the bottom of the post, but first is our suggested viewing schedule curated just for Vols fans.

Gameday, November 25, 2023

Full searchable college football TV schedule

Here’s the entire searchable and sortable college football TV schedule for this week:

The No. 18 Tennessee Volunteers host the No. 1 Georgia Bulldogs this afternoon at 3:30 on CBS. Other than that, it’s slim pickings today. There are two Top 25 matchups, the first at the awkward time of 2:30 ET between No. 22 Utah and No. 17 Arizona on the PAC12 network. The other is No. 5 Washington traveling to No. 11 Oregon State at 7:30 on ABC. If you don’t want to wait until 2:30 for football, your best bet may be No. 10 Louisville going to Miami at noon on ABC. And if you don’t care much about the Pac12, you can watch what No. 9 Missouri might or might not do at home to the Florida Gators at 7:30 on ESPN.

The full GRT college football TV schedule for today is at the bottom of the post, but first is our suggested viewing schedule curated just for Vols fans.

Gameday, November 11, 2023

Full searchable college football TV schedule

Here’s the entire searchable and sortable college football TV schedule for this week:

Tennessee opened as a 10-point underdog to Georgia this week with an over/under of 59.5. Currently, those numbers are 10.5 and 58.5. Hat Guy is rooting for the Vols but expecting Georgia to cover.

Tennessee vs Georgia, according to Hat Guy

From Tennessee’s perspective

Georgia’s defense is allowing an average of 15.6 points per game. The best scoring defense comps are:

• Alabama 18.1
• Texas A&M 20.4
• Missouri 22.3
• UTSA 24.6
• Kentucky 25
• Florida 27.4

Tennessee’s points against those teams:

• Alabama 20
• Texas A&M 20
• Missouri 7
• UTSA 45
• Kentucky 33
• Florida 16

Tennessee’s offensive premium/discount: 102%

Georgia’s offense is scoring an average of 40.6 points per game. The best scoring offense comps are:

• Texas A&M 34.2
• Alabama 33.6
• Missouri 32.8
• UTSA 31.5
• Florida 29.5
• Kentucky 29.1

Tennessee’s defensive performance against those teams:

• Texas A&M 13
• Alabama 34
• Missouri 36
• UTSA 14
• Florida 29
• Kentucky 27

Tennessee’s defensive premium/discount: 80%

Estimated score: Tennessee 15.9, Georgia 32.5

From Georgia’s perspective

Tennessee’s defense is allowing an average of 20.2 points per game. The best scoring defense comps are:

• Auburn 20.5
• Missouri 22.3
• Kentucky 25
• Mississippi 25.8
• Ball State 27.3
• Florida 27.4

Georgia’s points against those teams:

• Auburn 27
• Missouri 30
• Kentucky 51
• Mississippi 52
• Ball State 45
• Florida 43

Georgia’s offensive premium/discount: 167%

Tennessee’s offense is scoring an average of 32 points per game. The best scoring offense comps are:

• Missouri 32.8
• Florida 29.5
• Auburn 29.3
• Kentucky 29.1
• South Carolina 28.8
• UAB 28.3

Georgia’s defensive performance against those teams:

• Missouri 21
• Florida 20
• Auburn 20
• Kentucky 13
• South Carolina 14
• UAB 21

Georgia’s defensive premium/discount: 61%

Estimated score: Georgia 33.7, Tennessee 19.5

Combined Estimated Score

Home	Home Points	Away	Away Points	Favorite	Spread	Home RY	Away RY	Home PY	Away PY
Tennessee	17.7	Georgia	33.1	Georgia	-15.4	182.4	149.4	185.1	287.6

Hat Guy likes Georgia to cover tomorrow, and he likes the under.

Guts and Eyeballs

I don’t like it, but those comps all look solid to me. How much of a difference does Neyland Stadium make? I’m thinking not enough in the end.

Other predictions from other systems

Vegas’ opening numbers suggest a score of something like Georgia 35, Tennessee 25, give or take. Bill Connelly’s SP+ projects a score of Georgia 33, Tennessee 22 (Dawgs -10).

Bottom line

• Vegas opening: Georgia -10 (~Dawgs 35, Vols 25)
• Vegas current: Georgia -10.5 (~Dawgs 34, Vols 24)
• Hat Guy: Georgia -15 (Dawgs 33, Vols 18) (Dawgs cover)
• SP+: Georgia -10.8 (Dawgs 33, Vols 22) (Dawgs cover)
• Guts and Eyeballs: Same as Hat Guy

What do y’all think?

Here’s the same question in a different week: in a 12-team playoff, Saturday’s game would (still) mean even more.

It wouldn’t necessarily mean entirely less if you’re #1 Georgia; the Dawgs will likely need to go through Alabama either way. Losses in Knoxville and Atlanta would mean missing it all this year; losses in those two games next year might put Georgia on the road in the first round, etc.

But for #18 Tennessee and the quest for meaningful football – for being in the national conversation – this game would be not just an opportunity to beat number one, but play yourself back into fringe playoff talk.

“How can you say that after the way we lost to Missouri? We can’t seriously entertain beating Georgia now!”

Thanks for asking!

Saturday will be the 25th time the Vols play a Top 5 opponent in the post-Fulmer era, and the 12th time that opponent is ranked number one. As of Wednesday morning the Vols are +10.5 against Georgia.

It’s easy to forget because we won one of them and were ranked number one in the other, but that’s almost exactly where the Vols were when they played Alabama and Georgia last year, closing at +9.5 in both of those games.

And other than those two, +10.5 this week is as close as the Vols have been against the Top 5 in the post-Fulmer era (data via Phil Steele & covers.com).

Tennessee vs Top 5, 2009-2023

Year	Opponent	AP Rank	Line	Outcome
2022	Georgia	1	9.5	L 27-14
2022	Alabama	3	9.5	W 52-49
2023	Georgia	1	10.5
2020	Georgia	3	12	L 44-21
2020	Texas A&M	5	13	L 34-13
2016	Alabama	1	13	L 49-10
2012	Georgia	5	14	L 51-44
2009	Alabama	1	14	L 12-10
2014	Ole Miss	3	16	L 34-13
2011	LSU	1	17	L 38-7
2021	Georgia	1	19	L 41-17
2014	Alabama	4	19	L 34-20
2014	Oklahoma	4	20	L 34-10
2012	Alabama	1	20	L 44-13
2020	Alabama	2	21	L 48-17
2019	Georgia	3	24	L 43-14
2021	Alabama	4	24.5	L 52-24
2013	Oregon	2	28	L 59-14
2013	Alabama	1	28	L 45-10
2018	Alabama	1	29	L 58-21
2011	Alabama	2	29	L 37-6
2018	Georgia	2	30	L 38-12
2009	Florida	1	30	L 23-13
2019	Alabama	1	34	L 35-13
2017	Alabama	1	36	L 45-7

Even after the 36-7 loss at Missouri, these Vols have better odds against an elite team than any of their recent predecessors other than last season.

These wins are, by nature, very hard to come by. I use the Top 25 era a lot (1989-present), in part because it coincides with my own memories. In these 35 seasons, the Vols have ten Top 5 wins:

Tennessee Wins vs Top 5 in the Top 25 era (1989-present)

• 2022 vs #3 Alabama, 52-49
• 2005 at #3 LSU, 30-27 (OT)
• 2004 at #3 Georgia, 19-14
• 2001 at #2 Florida, 34-32
• 1998 vs #2 Florida, 20-17 (OT)
• 1998 vs #2 Florida State, 23-16
• 1995 vs #4 Ohio State, 20-14
• 1992 vs #4 Florida, 31-14
• 1991 at #5 Notre Dame, 35-34
• 1989 vs #4 Auburn, 21-14

In these past 35 seasons, the Vols have played a Top 5 opponent 53 times. They’ve been favored just three times…and lost all three:

• 1990 vs #1 Notre Dame in Knoxville with the Vols ranked #9, one of the best football games I’ve ever seen. Tennessee was -3 and lost 34-29 on an interception in the end zone.
• 1996 vs #4 Florida in front of a record-breaking NCAA crowd. The Gators scored the game’s first 35 points before a Tennessee comeback fell short 35-29; Tennessee was -3.
• 2005 vs #5 Georgia, two weeks after The Rally at Death Valley. With the quarterback situation still unresolved, the Dawgs won 27-14 with Tennessee at -3.

Wins against this level of competition are rare and almost never predictable. But this Tennessee team, even after last week, has a better opportunity than we’re used to seeing around here in the last 15 years. It could still mean everything a year from now. And it would absolutely define this season in the present.

I’m excited to see what we’ll do with it.

Go Vols.

When the lines opened this week, Tennessee was a 1-point favorite over Missouri with an over/under of 59. Currently, it is -1.5 and 57.5. Hat Guy agrees that it’s going to be close, but he likes the Vols to win and cover. Here’s why.

Missouri vs Tennessee, according to Hat Guy

From Missouri’s perspective

Tennessee’s defense is allowing an average of 18.4 points per game. The best scoring defense comps are:

• Kansas State 17.8
• Georgia 15.4
• Kentucky 22.3
• Memphis 27.9
• LSU 28.2
• Middle Tennessee 30.9

Missouri’s points against those teams:

• Kansas State 30
• Georgia 21
• Kentucky 38
• Memphis 34
• LSU 39
• Middle Tennessee 23

Missouri’s offensive premium/discount: 130%

Tennessee’s offense is scoring an average of 34.8 points per game. The best scoring offense comps are:

• Kansas State 36.6
• Memphis 39.2
• Georgia 39.3
• Kentucky 30
• South Carolina 26.8
• Vanderbilt 24.4

Missouri’s defensive performance against those teams:

• Kansas State 27
• Memphis 27
• Georgia 30
• Kentucky 21
• South Carolina 12
• Vanderbilt 21

Missouri’s defensive premium/discount: 70%

Estimated score: Missouri 24, Tennessee 24.3

From Tennessee’s perspective

Missouri’s defense is allowing an average of 24 points per game. The best scoring defense comps are:

• Florida 24.7
• Kentucky 22.3
• UTSA 25.8
• Texas A&M 21.6
• Alabama 17.8
• South Carolina 31.1

Tennessee’s points against those teams:

• Florida 16
• Kentucky 33
• UTSA 45
• Texas A&M 20
• Alabama 20
• South Carolina 41

Tennessee’s offensive premium/discount: 122%

Missouri’s offense is scoring an average of 32.4 points per game. The best scoring offense comps are:

• Texas A&M 32.3
• Alabama 31.9
• UTSA 31.2
• Kentucky 30
• Florida 28.9
• South Carolina 26.8

Tennessee’s defensive performance against those teams:

• Texas A&M 13
• Alabama 34
• UTSA 14
• Kentucky 27
• Florida 29
• South Carolina 20

Tennessee’s defensive premium/discount: 76%

Estimated score: Tennessee 29.3, Missouri 24.7

Combined Estimated Score

Home	Home Points	Away	Away Points	Favorite	Spread	Home RY	Away RY	Home PY	Away PY
Missouri	24.4	Tennessee	26.8	Tennessee	-2.4	100.8	192.8	252.1	240.3

As I’ve said before, Hat Guy is home-field agnostic, so if you disagree with that, then it’s basically a pick ’em. But Hat Guy likes the Vols to win and cover this weekend, although nobody’s feeling particularly good about these margins. Hat Guy does like the under.

Guts and Eyeballs

In Week 11 now, Hat Guy moved from four to six comps. I’m a bit uncomfortable with the fifth and sixth comps from each perspective, but using only four comps produces essentially the same result: Vols -2.1. Two comps results in Missouri -1.2. All comps turns Tennessee into a touchdown favorite.

Other predictions from other systems

Vegas’ opening numbers suggest a score of Tennessee 30, Missouri 29. Bill Connelly’s SP+ projects a score of Tennessee 29, Missouri 26 (Vols -2.2).

Bottom line

• Vegas opening: Tennessee -1 (Vols 30, Tigers 29)
• Vegas current: Tennessee -1.5 (~Vols 30, Tigers 28)
• Hat Guy: Tennessee -2.4 (Vols 27, Tigers 24) (Vols cover)
• SP+: Tennessee -2.2 (Vols 29, Tigers 26) (Vols cover)
• Guts and Eyeballs: Nauseous and blurry (Tennessee -6; Vols 30, Tigers 24)

What do y’all think?

The No. 13 Tennessee Volunteers travel to Columbia to take on the Missouri Tigers Saturday afternoon at 3:30 on CBS. Assuming that one goes as hoped, the game between No. 9 Ole Miss and No. 2 Georgia right afterward at 7:00 on ESPN will be nearly as important to Vols fans.

Gameday kicks off at noon on Fox with the No. 3 Michigan Wolverines traveling to No. 10 Penn State. If you’re a multi-tasker, there’s a Top 20 matchup between No. 18 Utah and No. 5 Washington on at the same time as the Vols in the afternoon slot. Pull for the Utes in that one in case it matters. And if you still have the energy, there’s an opportunity for USC to knock off No. 6 Oregon at 10:30 on Fox.

The full GRT college football TV schedule for the week is at the bottom of the post, but first is our suggested viewing schedule curated just for Vols fans.

Gameday, November 11, 2023

Full searchable college football TV schedule

Here’s the entire searchable and sortable college football TV schedule for this week: