Congrats to longtime friend of the blog birdjam for taking home the 2023 regular season picks contest trophy! It was a really tight race this season, with his 2,309 confidence points narrowly eclipsing boro wvvol (2,302) and wedflatrock (2,301). Full Top 10 at the bottom of this post.
We’re on to the postseason (and Orlando!). You can find our bowl pick ’em back at Fun Office Pools; previous players should’ve received an email invite today. Find us in the comments if you have any questions – good luck out there!
Tennessee opened as a 26-point favorite over Vanderbilt this week with an over/under of 55.5. Currently, those numbers are 27 and 57. Hat Guy thinks the spread is right on the nose, but he likes the over.
Tennessee vs Vanderbilt, according to Hat Guy
From Tennessee’s perspective
Vanderbilt’s defense is allowing an average of 35.1 points per game. The best scoring defense comps are:
Virginia 31.8
Connecticut 30.9
Florida 27.9
South Carolina 27.3
UTSA 24.3
Kentucky 24.3
Tennessee’s points against those teams:
Virginia 49
Connecticut 59
Florida 16
South Carolina 41
Kentucky 33
UTSA 45
Tennessee’s offensive premium/discount: 146%
Vanderbilt’s offense is scoring an average of 22.7 points per game. The best scoring offense comps are:
Virginia 23.8
Connecticut 18
South Carolina 27.7
Kentucky 27.7
Florida 29.6
Missouri 32.8
Tennessee’s defensive performance against those teams:
Virginia 13
Connecticut 3
South Carolina 20
Kentucky 27
Florida 29
Missouri 36
Tennessee’s defensive premium/discount: 80%
Estimated score: Tennessee 51.2, Vanderbilt 18.2
From Vanderbilt’s perspective
Tennessee’s defense is allowing an average of 21.8 points per game. The best scoring defense comps are:
Auburn 21.5
Missouri 23.1
Mississippi 23.7
Kentucky 24.3
UNLV 24.5
Wake Forest 26.5
Vanderbilt’s points against those teams:
Auburn 15
Missouri 21
Mississippi 7
Kentucky 28
UNLV 37
Wake Forest 20
Vanderbilt’s offensive premium/discount: 89%
Tennessee’s offense is scoring an average of 30 points per game. The best scoring offense comps are:
Florida 29.6
Kentucky 27.7
South Carolina 27.7
Auburn 27.5
Missouri 32.8
UNLV 35.9
Vanderbilt’s defensive performance against those teams:
Florida 38
South Carolina 47
Kentucky 45
Auburn 31
Missouri 38
UNLV 40
Vanderbilt’s defensive premium/discount: 132%
Estimated score: Vanderbilt 19.4, Tennessee 39.6
Combined Estimated Score
Home
Home Points
Away
Away Points
Favorite
Spread
Home RY
Away RY
Home PY
Away PY
Tennessee
45.4
Vanderbilt
18.8
Tennessee
-26.6
241.9
71.5
279.1
235.3
Hat Guy thinks this one is a push, but he likes the over.
Guts and Eyeballs
That looks about right to me.
Other predictions from other systems
Vegas’ opening numbers suggest a score of something like Tennessee 41, Vanderbilt 15, give or take. Bill Connelly’s SP+ projects a score of Tennessee 42, Vandy 14 (Vols -25.5.)
Happy Thanksgiving, y’all. It’s Rivalry Week as the No. 21 Tennessee Volunteers host the Vanderbilt Commodores this afternoon at 3:30 on the SEC Network. It’s up against the Iron Bowl, as No. 8 Alabama travels to Auburn at the same time on CBS.
The day kicks off with a huge Top 5 matchup with playoff implications as No. 2 Ohio State goes to No. 3 Michigan. That one’s on Fox at noon. The evenling slate includes games between No. 5 Florida State and Florida (7:00, ESPN), No. 1 Georgia and Georgia Tech (7:30, ABC), and No. 24 Clemson and South Carolina (7:30, SECN).
The full GRT college football TV schedule for today is at the bottom of the post, but first is our suggested viewing schedule curated just for Vols fans.
Gameday, November 25, 2023
Away
Home
Time
TV
NOON
2 Ohio State
3 Michigan
12:00 PM
FOX
AFTERNOON
Vanderbilt
21 Tennessee
3:30 PM
SECN
8 Alabama
Auburn
3:30 PM
CBS
EVENING
5 Florida State
Florida
7:00 PM
ESPN
1 Georgia
Georgia Tech
7:30 PM
ABC
24 Clemson
South Carolina
7:30 PM
SECN
Full searchable college football TV schedule
Here’s the entire searchable and sortable college football TV schedule for this week:
Tennessee lost its chance at the SEC East two weeks ago with a clunker against Missouri and then followed it up with another against Georgia Saturday. What remains is a regular-season closer against 0-7 Vanderbilt and a bowl game. Most are projecting a trip to the Gator Bowl against North Carolina or NC State. For those making Christmas plans, the Gator Bowl is in Jacksonville, Florida on December 29 at 2:00 p.m. Just remember, it’s not official yet.
For the record, here are the current SEC East standings.
Georgia
8-0
Missouri
5-2
Tennessee
3-4
Kentucky
3-5
Florida
3-5
South Carolina
3-5
Vanderbilt
0-7
Season Resume: Tennessee and Hat Guy
Here’s how Hat Guy has done so far this year and how he views the Vanderbilt game.
Preseason
W1
W2
W3
W4
W5
W6 (Bye)
W7
W8
W9
W10
W11
W12
VA
TN -36
TN 49-13
AP
TN 30-13
FL
TN -13
FL 29-16
UTSA
TN -8
TN 45-14
SC
TN -15
TN 41-20
TAMU
TAMU -14
TN -1.5
TN 20-13
AL
AL -7
AL -3.8
TN -2.1
AL 34-20
KY
KY -8
TN -7.7
TN -10.7
TN -6.2
TN 33-27
UCONN
TN -32
TN -28
TN -26
TN -25.1
TN -21.7
TN 59-3
MO
MO -3
TN -10.5
TN -4.2
MO -2.6
MO -1.6
TN -2.4
GA 36-7
GA
GA -6
GA -8.8
GA -6.3
GA -9.3
GA -13.3
GA -8.1
GA -15.4
GA 38-10
VAN
TN -17
TN -26.9
TN -25.7
TN -22.9
TN -29.8
TN -27.9
TN -26.6
The Alabama and Missouri games were essentially toss-ups that the Vols instead lost big. Florida remains the shocker, as the Vols were fairly heavy favorites heading into that loss. The Georgia game, well, Tennessee was expected to lose, just not expected to be so inept, especially on offense.
For the sake of posterity, here are the records and schedules for the Vols and their future and past opponents:
The No. 18 Tennessee Volunteers host the No. 1 Georgia Bulldogs this afternoon at 3:30 on CBS. Other than that, it’s slim pickings today. There are two Top 25 matchups, the first at the awkward time of 2:30 ET between No. 22 Utah and No. 17 Arizona on the PAC12 network. The other is No. 5 Washington traveling to No. 11 Oregon State at 7:30 on ABC. If you don’t want to wait until 2:30 for football, your best bet may be No. 10 Louisville going to Miami at noon on ABC. And if you don’t care much about the Pac12, you can watch what No. 9 Missouri might or might not do at home to the Florida Gators at 7:30 on ESPN.
The full GRT college football TV schedule for today is at the bottom of the post, but first is our suggested viewing schedule curated just for Vols fans.
Gameday, November 11, 2023
Away
Home
Time
TV
NOON
10 Louisville
Miami (Florida)
12:00 PM
ABC
22 Utah
17 Arizona
2:30 PM
PAC12
AFTERNOON
1 Georgia
18 Tennessee
3:30 PM
CBS
EVENING
5 Washington
11 Oregon State
7:30 PM
ABC
Florida
9 Missouri
7:30 PM
ESPN
Full searchable college football TV schedule
Here’s the entire searchable and sortable college football TV schedule for this week:
Tennessee opened as a 10-point underdog to Georgia this week with an over/under of 59.5. Currently, those numbers are 10.5 and 58.5. Hat Guy is rooting for the Vols but expecting Georgia to cover.
Tennessee vs Georgia, according to Hat Guy
From Tennessee’s perspective
Georgia’s defense is allowing an average of 15.6 points per game. The best scoring defense comps are:
Alabama 18.1
Texas A&M 20.4
Missouri 22.3
UTSA 24.6
Kentucky 25
Florida 27.4
Tennessee’s points against those teams:
Alabama 20
Texas A&M 20
Missouri 7
UTSA 45
Kentucky 33
Florida 16
Tennessee’s offensive premium/discount: 102%
Georgia’s offense is scoring an average of 40.6 points per game. The best scoring offense comps are:
Texas A&M 34.2
Alabama 33.6
Missouri 32.8
UTSA 31.5
Florida 29.5
Kentucky 29.1
Tennessee’s defensive performance against those teams:
Texas A&M 13
Alabama 34
Missouri 36
UTSA 14
Florida 29
Kentucky 27
Tennessee’s defensive premium/discount: 80%
Estimated score: Tennessee 15.9, Georgia 32.5
From Georgia’s perspective
Tennessee’s defense is allowing an average of 20.2 points per game. The best scoring defense comps are:
Auburn 20.5
Missouri 22.3
Kentucky 25
Mississippi 25.8
Ball State 27.3
Florida 27.4
Georgia’s points against those teams:
Auburn 27
Missouri 30
Kentucky 51
Mississippi 52
Ball State 45
Florida 43
Georgia’s offensive premium/discount: 167%
Tennessee’s offense is scoring an average of 32 points per game. The best scoring offense comps are:
Missouri 32.8
Florida 29.5
Auburn 29.3
Kentucky 29.1
South Carolina 28.8
UAB 28.3
Georgia’s defensive performance against those teams:
Missouri 21
Florida 20
Auburn 20
Kentucky 13
South Carolina 14
UAB 21
Georgia’s defensive premium/discount: 61%
Estimated score: Georgia 33.7, Tennessee 19.5
Combined Estimated Score
Home
Home Points
Away
Away Points
Favorite
Spread
Home RY
Away RY
Home PY
Away PY
Tennessee
17.7
Georgia
33.1
Georgia
-15.4
182.4
149.4
185.1
287.6
Hat Guy likes Georgia to cover tomorrow, and he likes the under.
Guts and Eyeballs
I don’t like it, but those comps all look solid to me. How much of a difference does Neyland Stadium make? I’m thinking not enough in the end.
Other predictions from other systems
Vegas’ opening numbers suggest a score of something like Georgia 35, Tennessee 25, give or take. Bill Connelly’s SP+ projects a score of Georgia 33, Tennessee 22 (Dawgs -10).
Bottom line
Vegas opening: Georgia -10 (~Dawgs 35, Vols 25)
Vegas current: Georgia -10.5 (~Dawgs 34, Vols 24)
Hat Guy: Georgia -15 (Dawgs 33, Vols 18) (Dawgs cover)
Here’s the same question in a different week: in a 12-team playoff, Saturday’s game would (still) mean even more.
It wouldn’t necessarily mean entirely less if you’re #1 Georgia; the Dawgs will likely need to go through Alabama either way. Losses in Knoxville and Atlanta would mean missing it all this year; losses in those two games next year might put Georgia on the road in the first round, etc.
But for #18 Tennessee and the quest for meaningful football – for being in the national conversation – this game would be not just an opportunity to beat number one, but play yourself back into fringe playoff talk.
“How can you say that after the way we lost to Missouri? We can’t seriously entertain beating Georgia now!”
Thanks for asking!
Saturday will be the 25th time the Vols play a Top 5 opponent in the post-Fulmer era, and the 12th time that opponent is ranked number one. As of Wednesday morning the Vols are +10.5 against Georgia.
It’s easy to forget because we won one of them and were ranked number one in the other, but that’s almost exactly where the Vols were when they played Alabama and Georgia last year, closing at +9.5 in both of those games.
And other than those two, +10.5 this week is as close as the Vols have been against the Top 5 in the post-Fulmer era (data via Phil Steele & covers.com).
Tennessee vs Top 5, 2009-2023
Year
Opponent
AP Rank
Line
Outcome
2022
Georgia
1
9.5
L 27-14
2022
Alabama
3
9.5
W 52-49
2023
Georgia
1
10.5
2020
Georgia
3
12
L 44-21
2020
Texas A&M
5
13
L 34-13
2016
Alabama
1
13
L 49-10
2012
Georgia
5
14
L 51-44
2009
Alabama
1
14
L 12-10
2014
Ole Miss
3
16
L 34-13
2011
LSU
1
17
L 38-7
2021
Georgia
1
19
L 41-17
2014
Alabama
4
19
L 34-20
2014
Oklahoma
4
20
L 34-10
2012
Alabama
1
20
L 44-13
2020
Alabama
2
21
L 48-17
2019
Georgia
3
24
L 43-14
2021
Alabama
4
24.5
L 52-24
2013
Oregon
2
28
L 59-14
2013
Alabama
1
28
L 45-10
2018
Alabama
1
29
L 58-21
2011
Alabama
2
29
L 37-6
2018
Georgia
2
30
L 38-12
2009
Florida
1
30
L 23-13
2019
Alabama
1
34
L 35-13
2017
Alabama
1
36
L 45-7
Even after the 36-7 loss at Missouri, these Vols have better odds against an elite team than any of their recent predecessors other than last season.
These wins are, by nature, very hard to come by. I use the Top 25 era a lot (1989-present), in part because it coincides with my own memories. In these 35 seasons, the Vols have ten Top 5 wins:
Tennessee Wins vs Top 5 in the Top 25 era (1989-present)
2022 vs #3 Alabama, 52-49
2005 at #3 LSU, 30-27 (OT)
2004 at #3 Georgia, 19-14
2001 at #2 Florida, 34-32
1998 vs #2 Florida, 20-17 (OT)
1998 vs #2 Florida State, 23-16
1995 vs #4 Ohio State, 20-14
1992 vs #4 Florida, 31-14
1991 at #5 Notre Dame, 35-34
1989 vs #4 Auburn, 21-14
In these past 35 seasons, the Vols have played a Top 5 opponent 53 times. They’ve been favored justthree times…and lost all three:
1990 vs #1 Notre Dame in Knoxville with the Vols ranked #9, one of the best football games I’ve ever seen. Tennessee was -3 and lost 34-29 on an interception in the end zone.
1996 vs #4 Florida in front of a record-breaking NCAA crowd. The Gators scored the game’s first 35 points before a Tennessee comeback fell short 35-29; Tennessee was -3.
2005 vs #5 Georgia, two weeks after The Rally at Death Valley. With the quarterback situation still unresolved, the Dawgs won 27-14 with Tennessee at -3.
Wins against this level of competition are rare and almost never predictable. But this Tennessee team, even after last week, has a better opportunity than we’re used to seeing around here in the last 15 years. It could still mean everything a year from now. And it would absolutely define this season in the present.
When the lines opened this week, Tennessee was a 1-point favorite over Missouri with an over/under of 59. Currently, it is -1.5 and 57.5. Hat Guy agrees that it’s going to be close, but he likes the Vols to win and cover. Here’s why.
Missouri vs Tennessee, according to Hat Guy
From Missouri’s perspective
Tennessee’s defense is allowing an average of 18.4 points per game. The best scoring defense comps are:
Kansas State 17.8
Georgia 15.4
Kentucky 22.3
Memphis 27.9
LSU 28.2
Middle Tennessee 30.9
Missouri’s points against those teams:
Kansas State 30
Georgia 21
Kentucky 38
Memphis 34
LSU 39
Middle Tennessee 23
Missouri’s offensive premium/discount: 130%
Tennessee’s offense is scoring an average of 34.8 points per game. The best scoring offense comps are:
Kansas State 36.6
Memphis 39.2
Georgia 39.3
Kentucky 30
South Carolina 26.8
Vanderbilt 24.4
Missouri’s defensive performance against those teams:
Kansas State 27
Memphis 27
Georgia 30
Kentucky 21
South Carolina 12
Vanderbilt 21
Missouri’s defensive premium/discount: 70%
Estimated score: Missouri 24, Tennessee 24.3
From Tennessee’s perspective
Missouri’s defense is allowing an average of 24 points per game. The best scoring defense comps are:
Florida 24.7
Kentucky 22.3
UTSA 25.8
Texas A&M 21.6
Alabama 17.8
South Carolina 31.1
Tennessee’s points against those teams:
Florida 16
Kentucky 33
UTSA 45
Texas A&M 20
Alabama 20
South Carolina 41
Tennessee’s offensive premium/discount: 122%
Missouri’s offense is scoring an average of 32.4 points per game. The best scoring offense comps are:
Texas A&M 32.3
Alabama 31.9
UTSA 31.2
Kentucky 30
Florida 28.9
South Carolina 26.8
Tennessee’s defensive performance against those teams:
Texas A&M 13
Alabama 34
UTSA 14
Kentucky 27
Florida 29
South Carolina 20
Tennessee’s defensive premium/discount: 76%
Estimated score: Tennessee 29.3, Missouri 24.7
Combined Estimated Score
Home
Home Points
Away
Away Points
Favorite
Spread
Home RY
Away RY
Home PY
Away PY
Missouri
24.4
Tennessee
26.8
Tennessee
-2.4
100.8
192.8
252.1
240.3
As I’ve said before, Hat Guy is home-field agnostic, so if you disagree with that, then it’s basically a pick ’em. But Hat Guy likes the Vols to win and cover this weekend, although nobody’s feeling particularly good about these margins. Hat Guy does like the under.
Guts and Eyeballs
In Week 11 now, Hat Guy moved from four to six comps. I’m a bit uncomfortable with the fifth and sixth comps from each perspective, but using only four comps produces essentially the same result: Vols -2.1. Two comps results in Missouri -1.2. All comps turns Tennessee into a touchdown favorite.
Other predictions from other systems
Vegas’ opening numbers suggest a score of Tennessee 30, Missouri 29. Bill Connelly’s SP+ projects a score of Tennessee 29, Missouri 26 (Vols -2.2).
The No. 13 Tennessee Volunteers travel to Columbia to take on the Missouri Tigers Saturday afternoon at 3:30 on CBS. Assuming that one goes as hoped, the game between No. 9 Ole Miss and No. 2 Georgia right afterward at 7:00 on ESPN will be nearly as important to Vols fans.
Gameday kicks off at noon on Fox with the No. 3 Michigan Wolverines traveling to No. 10 Penn State. If you’re a multi-tasker, there’s a Top 20 matchup between No. 18 Utah and No. 5 Washington on at the same time as the Vols in the afternoon slot. Pull for the Utes in that one in case it matters. And if you still have the energy, there’s an opportunity for USC to knock off No. 6 Oregon at 10:30 on Fox.
The full GRT college football TV schedule for the week is at the bottom of the post, but first is our suggested viewing schedule curated just for Vols fans.
Gameday, November 11, 2023
Away
Home
Time
TV
NOON
3 Michigan
10 Penn State
12:00 PM
FOX
AFTERNOON
13 Tennessee
14 Missouri
3:30 PM
CBS
18 Utah
5 Washington
3:30 PM
FOX
EVENING
9 Mississippi
2 Georgia
7:00 PM
ESPN
USC
6 Oregon
10:30 PM
FOX
Full searchable college football TV schedule
Here’s the entire searchable and sortable college football TV schedule for this week:
Rushing defense, creating havoc in the Tigers’ backfield, both through sacks and TFLs.
Where’s the danger?
Pass defense and red zone defense.
Gameplan for the Vols on defense
Rob the rush defense a bit to shore up the pass defense. Contain Missouri’s quarterback, who can turn bad plays into good one with his legs. Derail them early to try to keep them out of the red zone.
Missouri’s good at protecting the ball, but not so good at creating turnovers. Tennessee needs to not help them this weekend. Expect both teams to give each other yards and opportunities via penalties.