Category Archives: Football

In 2010, updates and renovations to Neyland Stadium capped attendance at 102,455. Gone were the days of, “Let’s see just how many human beings we can get in here,” with a new attendance record always, in theory, just one or two more ushers away. That mark will probably forever stand at 109,061 from the 2004 Florida game; the Vols last crossed the 107,000 mark in 2007 against Georgia.

With those updates – and more coming that will shrink attendance further – the sell-out becomes the go-to statistic. Lane Kiffin correctly noted this week that Saturday night will be the first 102,455 in Neyland Stadium since the 2017 Georgia game. But it’s also just the 17th in the last 11 seasons, not counting last year’s pandemic model.

Those 17 include:

• Every Florida and Alabama game from 2010-16, but not 2018 (or 2020)
• Every Georgia game from 2011-17, but not 2019
• 2013 Auburn & 2015 Oklahoma
• The Sunday night Labor Day weekend opener with Utah State in 2014
• 2014 Kentucky, the game after Josh Dobbs exploded at South Carolina
• 2021 Ole Miss

The Rebels being ranked #13 makes it feel like a fair addition to the list. But it was interesting to me, in going back through all the announced attendance figures at UT’s official site, to see how similar contests faired in Neyland:

• 2018 vs #11 Kentucky: 95,258
• 2014 vs #19 Missouri: 95,821
• 2013 vs #11 South Carolina: 95,736
• 2011 vs #9 South Carolina: 96,655

As you can see, we’re well past the threshold of, “Ranked non-rival opponent with chance for upset.” Tennessee, of course, did get two of those games. But the house wasn’t quite full to see it.

And it’s not just Kiffin, though he doens’t hurt. But if it was only Kiffin, this game would’ve been sold out long before this week.

When it comes to attendance, here’s the most noteworthy piece of data to me:

Lowest Attendance at Neyland 2010-21

• 2021 Tennessee Tech: 80,053
• 2012 Akron: 81,719
• 2012 Kentucky: 81,841 (shout out Jim Chaney)
• 2021 Pittsburgh: 82,203
• 2017 Vanderbilt: 83,117 (SHOUT OUT BRADY HOKE)
• 2012 Troy: 84,189
• 2021 Bowling Green: 84,314 (Thursday night)

Our first three home games this year are three of the seven least-attended games of the last 11 years. The other four on the list are from a fired-or-soon-to-be coach’s final season.

Certainly a factor: the pandemic. It’s why I haven’t really worried about it, or thought the comparison really valid. And it’s great that numbers in Knox County and elsewhere are trending in the right direction.

But Tennessee football has been fighting more than just the virus to get people to come. And you could see it start to happen last week. Look at the company last week’s South Carolina game finds itself in on the attendance charts of the last 11 seasons:

• 2021 South Carolina: 89,437
• 2011 Vanderbilt: 91,367 (Eric Gordon OT walk-off)
• 2019 BYU: 92,475
• 2019 Georgia: 92,709
• 2014 UTC: 93,097
• 2011 Cincinnati: 94,207

Last Saturday was already on pace with meaningful games from two seasons ago, when there was no pandemic. It’s also not far from an early temperature-check game from 2011 against Cincinnati, when we’d only been trying to get this thing right for a few years.

And either way, to me there’s nothing more telling than this: the Vols had 82,203 on September 11 against Pittsburgh. And we’ll have 102,455 on October 16 against Ole Miss.

I think the biggest factor isn’t the virus, or Kiffin, or the Rebels’ ranking.

The biggest factor is Tennessee.

The Vols have played their way to this opportunity tomorrow night. And the people have responded.

No matter what happens from here, I’m not sure how many people will come to the South Alabama game; Saturdays like that are probably more likely to be lower, even if case counts continue to decline into November. There are things we’ve just gotten used to, including the luxuries of staying home.

But there is no substitute for being there. And tomorrow night, there won’t be an empty seat in the house.

This season began with more reason to stay home than ever. But in no time at all, Josh Heupel’s team brought people to the threshold, even more than we’re used to seeing against this kind of opponent.

Again, what an incredible job by these guys so far to create this opportunity Saturday night.

It’s going to be a lot of fun in there.

Go Vols.

On the Monday of Bowling Green week, we wrote our season preview: What Is Possible Today. It was post-idiot optimist, but still preseason, still time for plenty of regular old optimism to creep in. Our community expected win total was 6.74.

We talked about what might take place: struggles, early losses, more patience required. We talked about how patience would make perfect sense, but would likely lead to disengagement.

And then we talked about what might be possible. What could happen for Tennessee to surprise. That list included:

• Joe Milton as a significant upgrade at quarterback
• Junior college transfers Tiyon Evans and Byron Young made immediate impacts
• The offensive line won’t suffer additional significant injuries
• The transfer portal speeds up some of the rebuilding process
• The window of opportunity to enjoy this team is wider than usual

At the midway point of the season, Joe Milton is no longer the starting quarterback, and Cooper Mays – perhaps the most important offensive lineman to the work of the whole – has missed significant time from the get-go.

And yet.

I’m not sure even the optimists among us saw where we are right now as possible today. And the window of opportunity to enjoy this team is due for some renovation.

Here’s our updated community expected win totals, higher in Week 7 than Week 1 for the first time since probably 2006:

Our community gives the Vols a 47.2% chance to beat #13 Ole Miss on Saturday night.

In SP+, here’s every Tennessee team of the last 14 seasons:

By tenths of a point, the current squad is playing at a more efficient level than the full-season version of 2016, and Lane Kiffin’s year one squad in 2009, just two seasons removed from Atlanta. Only the 2015 Vols have been better over the course of an entire year than the 2021 Vols have played, snap-for-snap, to this point.

Sure, we’re only halfway home, and sure, it’s tenths of a point. But if you’ve been through what we’ve been through, you celebrate anything. And this team is giving us something much closer to everything than we thought we’d come this year.

This Tennessee team has already made Saturday night possible. It is the most anticipated game in Neyland Stadium since 2016 Alabama. And it carries glorious purpose: the opportunity to announce one’s presence. Do it to Mizzou and South Carolina, okay. Win this game, and…

Well, that’s one thing about it. So often, we’ve come to a game like this and missed the opportunity for something more. Last year at Georgia. Butch Jones in a pair of checkered Neylands, against the Gators in 2014 and Oklahoma in 2015. Derek Dooley against Florida in 2012.

But we didn’t see any of those in year one.

There’s little pressure here; we’re not even entirely sure what we’re doing with this team as fans. But most of us were unsure a game like this was even possible in this year one especially.

It’s a credit to Lane Kiffin too, for getting Ole Miss to #13 in year two. Voices I trust and respect say to make this week about this Tennessee team and not about Kiffin, and I wholeheartedly agree with the sentiment. But I also don’t think the healthiest break-ups are between two people who totally ignore each other when their paths cross a dozen years later.

One thing we’ve always loved about blog form is the way words can last. Within that, there’s plenty of room for the ways we were wrong to last, for sure.

You can also go back and see something like the night Kiffin left unfolding in real time in the comments at Rocky Top Talk. It’s not as exciting as you might think: it’s mostly confusion, and lots of, “Maybe we’ll hire This Guy!” when almost none of the This Guys look like good ideas in hindsight.

There was a period there, somewhere in the Derek Dooley years, where seeing if Kiffin lost at USC felt like the best we could hope for. Then the first time he returned, as an Alabama assistant in 2014 – now seven long years ago – Josh Dobbs impressively grabbed our attention and held it for another two years.

The idea then, and now, was that the best revenge is living well. It was, of course, a lot to ask for the kind of living that comes from beating Alabama.

On Wednesday evening, Tennessee is +2.5 against Ole Miss.

We’ve seen big upsets in year one. Butch Jones got #11 South Carolina at +7, Jeremy Pruitt got #21 Auburn at +14.5. They were incredible surprises on a Saturday afternoon. But Josh Heupel and his team, in a very short span, have created a virtual toss-up opportunity with a Top 15 team in year one. The kind, like 2012/14 Florida and 2015 Oklahoma, where you know what victory would mean…and know you’ve got a chance to do it.

Just to have this opportunity this week has been a gift, a delightful surprise. Great job by Heupel and these guys to get here. There are plenty of Saturdays out in front of them for their story to be told. We’re already living well.

But what is possible now is to win Saturday night. To speak some words into Tennessee football and make a memory that would have a chance to live for a long time.

Just the thought of it makes me smile. And whatever you think of Kiffin, that’s the dominant emotion for me this week. What a ridiculous, delightful notion that this kind of game even exists for us in Week 7 of Year 1 of Year 13 of trying to get this right. What an incredible opportunity.

Might as well win it.

Go Vols.

When you look at Tennessee’s stat rankings, start at the bottom. In the last few years, there’s always been so much to choose from in how the Vols could improve: 125th in completion percentage allowed. 119th in third down conversions. 105th in throwing touchdowns in the red zone. We could go on.

The 2021 Vols having a glaring weakness in allowing sacks: 117th nationally, giving up 20 in the first six games. One silver lining: Tennessee’s shallow pocket means the Vols are giving up only four yards per loss, so a sack puts you in 2nd-and-14 instead of 2nd-and-20. But clearly, there’s much to improve here. For what it’s worth, Missouri and South Carolina were both stronger than Ole Miss in this department coming in.

But after sacks allowed? The rest of Tennessee’s areas for greatest improvement in major statistical categories aren’t hanging out in the 100s anymore. Most of them aren’t hanging out beyond the Top 75.

And in addition to all the things Tennessee is doing exceptionally well – playing fast, scoring points, converting third downs, tackles for loss – the Vols are playing winning, Neyland maxim football in a way we haven’t seen in a long time.

One stat we came across last year in trying to explain what was suddenly going wrong with UT’s offense: Tennessee had a -44 turnover margin from 2011-20 in SEC play. The Vols haven’t broken even in turnover margin in league play since 2010, haven’t finished in the black since 2009. Why did it feel like things were always going against us? Because in one of football’s most telling stats, they were, for a long time.

But this year, through three SEC games? The Vols are +5, with zero giveaways.

That +5 number is sixth nationally in conference play; shout out to Iowa at +11. Since the Pitt game, I’m not sure Hendon Hooker has thrown a ball that even had a chance to be intercepted.

These two stats could be on a collision course: the best way to force turnovers is to hit the quarterback. Tennessee cannot continue to allow Hooker to be hit 3.33 times per game and think they won’t turn it over. Meanwhile, Matt Corral is one of three quarterbacks in college football with 100+ passing attempts and zero interceptions (Hendon Hooker is one of 14 with 100+ and less than two picks).

But overall, the Vols aren’t just winning and aren’t just fun because they’re playing so fast and scoring so many points. Tennessee, so far, is dominating the turnover battle. They are the team making the fewest mistakes, still created in the image of General Neyland while playing a brand of football he’d barely recognize.

And for the first time in a long time, that leads to a small-but-growing feeling that things can indeed go for us, not against us.

Go Vols.

Goodness. I am digging this whole Heuper Speed offense and the complementary defense. Plus, a good special teams unit and improvement in penalties and turnovers. It’s all making emotions fun again.

Offense

If that looks wonky on your device, try this link.

High fives: I don’t think I’ve ever had this problem before. There are seven categories in which the Vols’ offense is in the Top 25, and I don’t want to write them all down. Idea: shorter synonyms. Clean, on schedule, running, scoring, total. Woo. Yeah, that’ll do it.

Attaboys (improving): Um, completion percentage?

Fix this next: The offense is still allowing an embarrassing amount of sacks. I’m flummoxed as to how the offense is so good despite wasting so many plays due to sacks.

Defense

If that looks wonky on your device, try this link.

High fives: The Vols are third in the nation in TFLs. They’re also very good at intercepting passes and converting turnovers into touchdowns.

Attaboys (improving): Total defense (yards), sacks, and red zone defense.

Fix this next: Still more work to do on each of the attaboys, plus we’ve slipped a bit on first (and third) downs.

Special Teams

If that looks wonky on your device, try this link.

High fives: Protecting our kickers, blocking punts, punt return defense.

Attaboys (improving): Kickoff returns, punt returns, kickoff return defense.

Fix this next: Net punting.

Turnovers and Penalties

If that looks wonky on your device, try this link.

Penalties. Okay, so the number of penalties is improving, but the ones we do have are of larger denominations. Still, good progress this week and last. We dug a big hole early in the season.

Turnovers. Everything got better again this week, although we still have much ground to make up on fumbles lost.

Here comes a fun week:

It’s the midway point of the regular season, and chances are you’re projecting Tennessee to finish with more wins than you did in Week 1. It’s especially impressive considering the way optimism tends to sneak its way in during fall camp, no matter how far down you’ve been, or for how long. We’re living all that good news right now.

When’s the last time you were more optimistic overall in Week 7 than Week 1? Speak of the devil, Lane Kiffin’s 2009 season kicked into high gear with the 45-19 beat down of Georgia on October 10, but by that point the Vols were 3-3 with a disappointing loss to UCLA. So you felt much better at this point 12 years ago, but probably weren’t projecting a better finish for that team than you did in August.

I think you have to go back 15 years to 2006, when the Vols rebounded from a 5-6 disappointment the year before to blow out #9 Cal in the opener. The Vols lost to eventual national champion Florida by one, but played the perfect fourth quarter in rallying to beat #10 Georgia 51-33 in Athens on October 7. That team was ranked #23 in the preseason AP poll, and was #7 at this point in the season.

Back in the present day, it was a Saturday of mixed results for the rest of Tennessee’s schedule. Alabama’s loss and Tennessee’s continued success should drive those numbers up north of…well, 1% or so. But how far? Not sure we’re ready for that yet.

Meanwhile, after disparaging Kentucky’s win over Florida in this space last week, you’ll find no such thing from me this week. The Cats got an incredibly efficient performance from Will Levis and ran for 7.3 per carry on the Tiger defense in a 42-21 win.

And what do we do with Ole Miss?

We’ll spend the rest of the week answering that one. As always, leave your win totals in the comments, and we’ll see just how good we’re feeling this week.

Go Vols.

It’s just hard to know what to expect, at least for me. What’s an appropriate level of cynicism after all these years? What are healthy boundaries around our hearts: still beating orange blood, but hey, our doctor said to take it easy?

Even after last week. And even after last week set up this week as a gatekeeper of sorts: just win it, by any form or fashion, and six wins are there for the taking. A month of opportunity on the other side. Just avoid the letdown. Just find a way to win. Just.

Turns out, ain’t much just about this team.

Tennessee was efficient: 14 plays, 66 yards to open, converting three times on 3rd-and-3-or-less. Tennessee was explosive: a nice playcall got Velus Jones 15 yards on the first snap of the next series, then they lulled Carolina’s defense to the right before throwing back left, 39 yards to a w-i-d-e open JaVonta Payton.

Carolina’s offense has struggled all year, so a 14-0 lead felt huge. But, to their credit, here came the Gamecocks, gashing the defense to 1st-and-Goal at the 1. Then they went backwards. Then they got cute.

What happened after Jaylen McCullough’s interception is the best sequence of football I’ve seen from Tennessee this season:

• Hooker to Tillman for 20 yards
• Hooker run for 8 yards
• Evans run for 10 yards
• Hooker to Velus for 31 yards
• Hooker run for 11 yard TD
• Total drive: 5 plays, 80 yards, 1:18

What was one yard away from a 14-7 game was also 78 seconds away from a 21-0 hole. Then Carolina graciously fumbled their next snap, and the Vols scored on 3rd-and-7. Two drives later, the Vols converted 3rd-and-8, then Tiyon Evans went 45 yards on the next snap.

Remember last year, when the Vols went 1-of-11 on third down at South Carolina? Today: 12-of-17. That puts the Vols at 40-of-81 on the year, absurdly close to breaking 50%.

Also impressive: the way Tennessee is diverse in the passing game. After throwing to the tight end at a historic rate through the first two Saturdays, wide receivers caught 16 of 17 passes today. Velus Jones and Cedric Tillman remain threats all over the field, with JaVonta Payton now rocking nine catches for 216 yards (24 per catch!) for 4 touchdowns.

So we’re up 38-7 at halftime and mostly begging Ole Miss to hang on in their game. Then the Vols opened the second half with four straight punts, starting with a pair of three-and-outs.

One difference from last week: Carolina got home a lot in this sequence. The Vols ran it 11 times in 17 plays (64.7%) en route to those four punts, with the six passing plays resulting in three sacks. Carolina’s defense was solid coming in: much better than Mizzou’s, but better than Ole Miss’s too.

Still, credit Tennessee’s defense: without the fake punt, the Gamecocks finished with just 13 points offensively. And when they turned Carolina away on fourth down, the Vols did respond with a great run by Hendon Hooker to set up the final touchdown of the day.

Hooker was on pace early to vastly eclipse the 22 passes per game he attempts coming in. Then in the second half, sacks and score left him with…23. But he hit 17 of those (73.9%) for 225 yards (9.8 ypa) for three touchdowns and zero interceptions. Accurate, explosive, and clean, again.

It’ll get dirtier now: depending on what Kentucky does with LSU, Georgia, and Mississippi State, the Vols may face four ranked opponents in a row. But we’ll face them with our orange hearts beating a little louder; especially so next Saturday night, in what will be the most anticipated home game since Alabama five years ago. There will still be nerves, especially with so little depth. There will still be caution, especially because we’ve been down for so long.

There’s always hope; that’s why we’re here. But today, there was just joy. Unexpected, unfiltered joy.

There will be a lot of emotions this week. We’ll get to all of them.

But the Vols enter it with more optimism than we thought we’d see this season. Full credit to Josh Heupel and this team: so far, these guys are a delightful surprise.

Now let’s see how much fun we can really have.

Go Vols.

It’s been easy, in hindsight, to frame a lot of last week as, “LOL Mizzou’s defense.” I’ve done it too. And now, that’s leading us head first into, “LOL Carolina’s offense,” on the front end this week.

And sure: take away pick sixes, and the Gamecock offense scored 13 points against East Carolina, 13 against Georgia, 10 against Kentucky, and 16 against Troy. Meanwhile, Tennessee’s defensive performance in holding Pitt to 4.84 yards per play looks better by the Saturday. And Mizzou’s 5.35 yards per play featured 154 of the Tigers’ 396 yards (38.8%) coming after Tennessee built a 55-17 lead.

So there’s a version of this where we pump the brakes on Tennessee’s defense, saying we’ll get a much bigger data point next week against Ole Miss. Fair enough. But despite the good vibes, and assumed advantage – our community had the Vols at 61.9% to win this game in the preseason expected win total machine, but 73.9% this week – that same upgraded test is coming for Tennessee’s offense tomorrow.

South Carolina’s defense is 36th in SP+ this week: not enough to offset the offensive concerns, but enough to make life difficult on Tennessee. And really, life hasn’t been overly difficult for Tennessee’s offense much this year.

There’s still so much about watching Heupel’s team that we’re getting used to, especially pace-related. The Vols are at 75.8 plays per game. In our last year one, the Vols ran 59.7 plays per game, last in the nation by an unhealthy margin.

The Vols are also currently rocking essentially a 240-to-140 run-to-pass ratio, keeping it on the ground 63% of the time. Last year the Vols ran it 56.8% of the time, 56.2% of the time in 2019. When Tennessee last had a running quarterback and potent offense in 2016: 57.7% on the ground. Three of Tennessee’s five games have been non-competitive to the good in the fourth quarter, so I’m not sure we’re running 63% of the time by the end of the year. But it’s still an uptick from what we’ve seen in the past.

Running it so often this year defies much of the Heupel stereotypes, which he tried to tell us coming in. But I think it’s also masking some really good quarterback play from Hendon Hooker.

In the four weeks he has played, Hooker is throwing it 22 times per game (plus 8-10 carries per game, excluding sacks). For context: last year JG threw it 24 times per game, Josh Dobbs was at 27 in 2016, Tyler Bray at 38 in 2012. At UCF, Dillon Gabriel hit 41 per game last year, but just 31 per game in 2019.

So no matter how you slice it, Hooker’s on the low end so far. He had 21 pass attempts against Pitt and 23 against Florida, but didn’t play the entire game in either. There’s a chance South Carolina’s defense requires more from him.

But even with a smaller sample size? What Hooker actually has done is particularly impressive in three ways. He’s fifth nationally in overall QB rating, but that’s often a less trustworthy stat. However:

• Completion Percentage: 68.5%, 24th nationally
• Recent UT leader: Erik Ainge 2006 67%

• Yards Per Attempt: 9.4, `15th nationally
• Recent UT leader: Erik Ainge 2006 8.6

• Interception Percentage: 1.1%
• Recent UT leader: Peyton Manning 1995 1.1%

So far, Hooker is accurate, explosive, and clean. That last part might feel a little out of place because his only pick on the year was on the final drive against Pittsburgh (and he also threw a bad one in the Orange & White Game). Hooker also threw five picks on 150 attempts (3.3%) last season at Virginia Tech. But so far this year, he’s rocking a 10-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio, and hasn’t really thrown many balls that had a chance to go the other way.

We go into Saturday almost back where we started in win totals, despite having two losses:

And if the Vols win this game – which again, we’re favored to do – optimism should hit a high-water mark next week. When’s the last time we were more optimistic in Week 7 than in Week 1?

Coming into the year, we thought this game would be the best comparison to where the Vols were, and the most important one to get in the quest for six wins. If the name of the game is volatility, both for a year one coach and college football this season, maybe we’ll go back to expecting the unexpected with this team.

But a win tomorrow allows us to keep having the much more fun conversations about this team, and would set up a highly anticipated showdown next Saturday night. It’s a big game in the way it enables other games to be big.

Carolina’s offense hasn’t been a challenge. Will their defense challenge Hendon Hooker, and will he continue to rise to the occasion?

Go Vols.

The good vibes live on into Wednesday, the non-stop highlight reel of last Saturday turning the corner to reframe a visit from the Gamecocks this week. The Vols are -10.5 as I type. In the last four meetings, the Vols have been -2.5, +9, +4, and -4.5 last year. What felt like a match-up of two programs starting over in similar spots has become an opportunity for Tennessee to separate themselves not only from South Carolina, but much of the year one narrative we thought we’d get.

If six wins is a good goal, a win on Saturday gets you to 4-2. We say it every week: the rhythm is just different this year, Tennessee’s schedule operating in a way we’re very unfamiliar with. Instead of a slew of high-profile matchups to open, the Vols got relative toss-ups. But South Alabama and Vanderbilt are still there at the end too, meaning a 4-2 start would lead to the assumption of wins five and six, readily available on the season’s final Saturdays.

It’s the in between part that has a chance to be reimagined.

If the Vols struggle and/or lose, we’ll go back to what one probably should expect: volatility begets volatility. College football overall is more roller-coastery than usual this season, and no one would understand the inherent thrills and nausea more than Tennessee’s program. Struggle and/or lose, and unexpected remains the theme, with the Vols needing to find another win before late November to earn a 13th game.

But because last Saturday was so very unexpected indeed, now we’re willing to believe in something a little bigger…especially if the Vols play well again this week.

The 62-24 triumph at Missouri was the first reason to believe. Josh Heupel is the fifth Tennessee coach in a Year One in the last 13 seasons. And, to their credit, each of his predecessors gave us a real reason to believe in Year One. His predecessors are also just that: those initial reasons to believe ultimately flamed out.

They’ve each done it a bit differently, and each offer something we can learn in reflection. We’ve been through a lot, and we’ve developed some callouses and boundaries along the way. What’s a healthy, appropriate response to the first sign of life? Let’s see how it’s gone before:

Lane Kiffin 2009: Blew out a rival in Week 6 (plus recruiting)

It’s strange to type, “If you’re old enough to remember,” but if you are, Kiffin left little opportunity for a wait-and-see stance. He put himself in position to need defending, and man, we did it. He also signed Nu’keese Richardson, Janzen Jackson, Bryce Brown, and a host of other freshmen who would play right away, building instant credibility that the Vols would have enough talent to get the job done. In 2009, Tennessee was also just two years removed from Atlanta: it felt like a remodel, not a rebuild.

Then he lost to UCLA in truly puzzling and disappointing fashion. He turned a +30 line into a 10-point loss in The Swamp against #1 Florida. And the Vols just missed against Auburn, also starting over with Gene Chizik, in Week 5. “Sooner than later, we’ve got to win one of these,” we thought.

Sooner: the Vols hammered Georgia 45-19 the very next week, getting a religious experience from Jonathan Crompton at quarterback. Last Saturday’s win at Missouri is the most the Vols have over-performed the Vegas line in the post-Fulmer era (and maybe ever) at +40.5; this one is fifth on that list at +27, but that number means a lot more against Georgia.

Again, we were only two seasons removed from huge, meaningful wins. But this one certainly felt like validation, and validation traveled. The Vols almost beat #1 Bama two weeks later and rolled out the black jerseys in rolling #21 South Carolina. They hadn’t fully arrived: the Vols also got Dexter McClustered 42-17 at Ole Miss, and played a game fairly similar to what we just saw at Florida against #12 Virginia Tech in the Chik-fil-A Bowl, dropping a wide-open touchdown late in the third quarter that would’ve cut it to one possession, before ultimately losing by 23.

Still, even at 7-6, Kiffin’s year inspired a ton of confidence (and fun) going forward, stemming much from that huge Saturday in Week 6. The same scenario isn’t necessarily available to Josh Heupel this year, as Tennessee’s biggest rivals are all much better than Georgia was in 2009. But I think we’d be more than happy to make the comparison should Ole Miss or Kentucky arrive as a ranked opponent.

How long did it last: Let’s talk more about that next week.

Derek Dooley 2010: We found a quarterback in Week 9 (and beyond)

Knew it coming in, and it indeed happened: a front-loaded Tennessee schedule meant the Vols started 2-6, with five of those losses to Top 20 teams plus Georgia in Athens. The last of them, at #17 South Carolina, featured the appearance of freshman Tyler Bray in the second half.

He threw a pick six, but then almost rallied Tennessee to victory. Not only did the Vols get bowl eligible from there, Bray made an assault on Tennessee’s freshman passing records, held by both Peyton Manning and Casey Clausen.

It was a testament to the power of getting the right guy, then knowing that guy is still going to be around. Bray felt like a legitimate future first-round pick at that point, and for all the struggle of going Fulmer-Kiffin-Dooley in three years, getting quarterback right covers a multitude of sins.

How long did it last: The problem with putting so much of it on your quarterback is that quarterback can get hurt. After one of the best performances any Tennessee quarterback has ever put on vs Cincinnati in Week 2 of 2011, Justin Hunter tore his ACL on the opening drive at Florida in Week 3, and Bray broke his thumb on a Georgia helmet in Week 5. There was still enough optimism for 2012, and rightfully so on offense. But the defense couldn’t hold up their end, and Bray’s presence ultimately led to a bunch of close losses to ranked opponents.

Butch Jones 2013: Almost beat a rival in Week 6, beat a ranked team two weeks later (plus recruiting)

To his credit, Butch Jones – received with plenty of arms folded in front when he was hired – won people over by March with his work in securing an unusually high number of in-state and legacy talents in recruiting. Jones got Jalen Hurd, Todd Kelly Jr., etc. in the boat, making you believe good things were coming, even if we had to wait.

Then he almost beat #6 Georgia while all those guys were still in high school, the original Smokey Gray Saturday that is still among the most fun anyone has had in Neyland in the last ten years.

Then he did beat #11 South Carolina two weeks later.

We talked about this on our podcast this week: the 2013 season was ultimately another struggling Year One against probably the most difficult schedule Tennessee has ever faced. But it was one of the more fun seasons of these last 13, both because of what Tennessee was building in those brick-by-brick recruiting classes, and because the performances against Georgia and South Carolina made you believe the Vols could win now, even against such a daunting schedule.

How long did it last: It’s the Ballad of Butch Jones: had big moments along the way, but missed the chance for them to truly become lasting memories when those seasons themselves failed to land on their feet. Tennessee cost itself bowl eligibility in a 14-10 loss to Vanderbilt in late November. Good vibes continued through a strong early stretch in 2014…then the Vols lost to Florida in excruciating fashion. Josh Dobbs came on soon after to build even more momentum…then see 2015 Oklahoma and Florida, etc.

Jeremy Pruitt 2018: A historic upset in Week 7

The Vols took three 26-point losses to West Virginia, Florida, and Georgia, building little optimism. Then the Vols went to #21 Auburn and won 30-24 at +14.5, the program’s third-biggest upset via Vegas since 1985.

After getting past the requisite Bama blowout, the Vols lost a close game at South Carolina and were uninspiring against Charlotte…then busted up #12 Kentucky 24-7.

It wasn’t true in terms of week-to-week performance (another good reason to value what Tennessee is doing in things like SP+). But according to the head-to-head police, Tennessee’s wins over Auburn and Kentucky gave Pruitt the best two wins of any of these year one coaches (though Kiffin’s were probably more fun because of who and how).

However…

How long did it last: On the doorstep of bowl eligibility after that Kentucky win…Tennessee lost 50-17 to Missouri and 38-13 to Vanderbilt to finish the season 5-7. It was more confusing than anything else, then completely and rightfully overshadowed by the Georgia State loss to open 2019. In the end, 2018 had the most volatility: the biggest wins, and the worst losses.

So, as we’ve learned, no matter how good the first piece of belief is, it’s only the first. Sometimes it can last into year three, sometimes it fades by November. One must continue to taste and see.

But it’s not all coachspeak to believe in things like valuing the process over the results, especially early…and especially after you’ve just won by 38, instead of the other way around. The Mizzou blowout gave us reason to believe, and happened earlier than any of these other data points. But Tennessee’s relative stability in every performance so far this season – one in which there should probably be more volatility than ever – is also an encouraging sign.

And if the Vols are steady again on Saturday, they can put the bowl eligibility conversation to the side for a month. Because if Tennessee’s opponents also take care of business, the Vols could face four straight ranked foes after Saturday.

Beat South Carolina, and we’ll face them with far more reason to believe than we thought possible.

Go Vols.