Expected Win Total Machine – Week 7

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Here comes a fun week:

It’s the midway point of the regular season, and chances are you’re projecting Tennessee to finish with more wins than you did in Week 1. It’s especially impressive considering the way optimism tends to sneak its way in during fall camp, no matter how far down you’ve been, or for how long. We’re living all that good news right now.

When’s the last time you were more optimistic overall in Week 7 than Week 1? Speak of the devil, Lane Kiffin’s 2009 season kicked into high gear with the 45-19 beat down of Georgia on October 10, but by that point the Vols were 3-3 with a disappointing loss to UCLA. So you felt much better at this point 12 years ago, but probably weren’t projecting a better finish for that team than you did in August.

I think you have to go back 15 years to 2006, when the Vols rebounded from a 5-6 disappointment the year before to blow out #9 Cal in the opener. The Vols lost to eventual national champion Florida by one, but played the perfect fourth quarter in rallying to beat #10 Georgia 51-33 in Athens on October 7. That team was ranked #23 in the preseason AP poll, and was #7 at this point in the season.

Back in the present day, it was a Saturday of mixed results for the rest of Tennessee’s schedule. Alabama’s loss and Tennessee’s continued success should drive those numbers up north of…well, 1% or so. But how far? Not sure we’re ready for that yet.

Meanwhile, after disparaging Kentucky’s win over Florida in this space last week, you’ll find no such thing from me this week. The Cats got an incredibly efficient performance from Will Levis and ran for 7.3 per carry on the Tiger defense in a 42-21 win.

And what do we do with Ole Miss?

We’ll spend the rest of the week answering that one. As always, leave your win totals in the comments, and we’ll see just how good we’re feeling this week.

Go Vols.

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HixsonVol
HixsonVol
13 days ago

Your expected win total is 7.2.
Your details:
vs Mississippi: 58%
at Alabama: 5%
at Kentucky: 59%
vs Georgia: 2%
vs South Alabama: 100%
vs Vanderbilt: 100%

Probably being way too optimistic on Mississippi and Kentucky. GBO.

Drew
Drew
13 days ago

Your expected win total is 6.7. Your details: vs Mississippi: 40% at Alabama: 10% at Kentucky: 25% vs Georgia: 4% vs South Alabama: 96% vs Vanderbilt: 96% This is the most optimistic I’ve been all season. Kentucky is looking better and better, but it looks like Ole Miss’s weaknesses fit our strengths pretty well. Could our defense hold up a little bit better than Arkansas? Maybe. I miss the statsy previews. The rest of it is pretty clear cut at this point. I don’t think we’re beating Alabama or Georgia, and I don’t think South Alabama’s much of a challenge, and… Read more »

SpeedyWillie
SpeedyWillie
13 days ago

What to make of Kentucky? I’m not going to pretend to understand everything that goes into FPI. But even with Kentucky’s wins against Florida and LSU, they’re only ranked #34 vs. UT at #23. They struggled to put away weaker opponents like SC, UTC, and Missouri, and were probably fortunate to beat Florida. But obviously they put together a complete performance against LSU.

They’ll be coming off a road game at Miss St, while we’ll be coming off a bye. FPI gives us a 56% chance.

Isaac Bishop
Isaac Bishop
13 days ago

7.2 projected wins

vs Mississippi: 50%

at Alabama: 10%

at Kentucky: 50%

vs Georgia: 8%

vs South Alabama: 100%

vs Vanderbilt: 99%

Not much change. Slid UK and Ole Miss to tossups. Alabama chances went up because of the loss.

OKVol
OKVol
13 days ago

Your expected win total is 6.6.

vs Mississippi: 45%

at Alabama: 1%

at Kentucky: 20%

vs Georgia: 3%

vs South Alabama: 99%

vs Vanderbilt: 90%

The percentages of the last two are low. But at the rate players are getting injured, who knows who we will field by the end of the season.

Harley
Harley
13 days ago

Up this week to a cautiously optimistic 7 wins, thanks to running past SC. We’ve got a tough stretch ahead with what I think are two 50/50 games. Wow… we are at a real crossroads to an outstanding season or the “as expected” season. Go Vols!

Your expected win total is 7.1.

Your details:

at Bowling Green: 100%

vs Pittsburgh: %

vs Tennessee Tech: 100%

at Florida: %

at Missouri: 100%

vs South Carolina: 100%

vs Mississippi: 50%

at Alabama: 10%

at Kentucky: 50%

vs Georgia: 0%

vs South Alabama: 100%

vs Vanderbilt: 100%

Gavin Driskill
Gavin Driskill
13 days ago

6.5 for me, I think the first time I’ve rounded up to 7?

I guess I’m projecting 1-3 in the next 4, but I’m not really sure where that’ll come from. Not convinced we can match Ole Miss blow for blow, and Kentucky just seems destined to grind on us.

vs Mississippi: 30%

at Alabama: 5%

at Kentucky: 25%

vs Georgia: 5%

vs South Alabama: 90%

vs Vanderbilt: 90%

HT
HT
13 days ago

One of us! One of us! One of us! Welcome me to the optimistic pack.

Your expected win total is 6.8.

vs Mississippi: 35%

at Alabama: 5%

at Kentucky: 45%

vs Georgia: 2%

vs South Alabama: 92%

vs Vanderbilt: 98%

HT
HT
12 days ago
Reply to  Will Shelton

I couldn’t believe it either. And our chances against Georgia have DOUBLED!

Sam Hensley
Sam Hensley
13 days ago

Your expected win total is 6.8.

vs Mississippi: 30%

at Alabama: 4%

at Kentucky: 45%

vs Georgia: 3%

vs South Alabama: 98%

vs Vanderbilt: 95%

I still don’t think we have much of a prayer against Bama and UGA, but I feel better than ever about our near automatic wins against little Bama and Vandy. I feel less confident about UK this week, and more confident about Ole Miss, though not as confident as Vegas or Will. Am I a Nega-vol!!?? 🙁

JustinTipton
JustinTipton
12 days ago

I’m happy to have a much higher number this week!
Your expected win total is 6.7.

Your details:

at Bowling Green: 100%

vs Pittsburgh: %

vs Tennessee Tech: 100%

at Florida: %

at Missouri: 100%

vs South Carolina: 100%

vs Mississippi: 50%

at Alabama: 1%

at Kentucky: 25%

vs Georgia: 1%

vs South Alabama: 100%

vs Vanderbilt: 95%

Isaac Bishop
Isaac Bishop
11 days ago

Just for fun I just ran ESPN’s FPI numbers and surprisingly they’re probably the most optimistic about our chances.

Your expected win total is 7.3.
vs Mississippi: 54%

at Alabama: 11%

at Kentucky: 56%

vs Georgia: 12%

vs South Alabama: 96%

vs Vanderbilt: 98%

Jayyyy
Jayyyy
9 days ago

Your expected win total is 6.8.

Your details:

at Bowling Green: 100%

vs Pittsburgh: %

vs Tennessee Tech: 100%

at Florida: %

at Missouri: 100%

vs South Carolina: 100%

vs Mississippi: 40%

at Alabama: 10%

at Kentucky: 40%

vs Georgia: 5%

vs South Alabama: 97%

vs Vanderbilt: 90%