Category Archives: Expected Win Totals

It’s Post-Game Monday, which means that it’s time to re-assess our expected win totals in light of Tennessee’s loss to Alabama on Saturday. You can submit your own ballot at the GRT Expected Win Total Machine page.

But first, a diversion: I dreamed last night that I was in a sort of marching band. Not odd yet, as I was Marching Band Nerd Royalty for a time in my small high school in rural Illinois.

The odd stuff begins with the fact that our marching routine included following these weird patterns on the ground. It was kind of like the Yellow Brick Road, but not yellow. Or brick, really, but more brick-ish. Anyway, I was feeling bad because I got lost following some blue shape in circles while everyone else knew what they were doing.

But more weird: Nick Saban was our instructor, and he was pissed at me. So, feeling like a miserable failure, I tried to line up for the next exercise and, as can only happen in dreams, I ended up at the back of a school bus holding a cornet (it’s like a smaller trumpet.) Saban’s standing next to me. Everybody’s watching. Saban looks at me with disdain (or maybe it’s his regular expession — who knows, right? And, of course, he says, “Give me that. I bet I can play that better than you.”

Dude doesn’t even bother to sanitize the mouthpiece. (Like we’re not in a pandemic!) Saban plays Oh, Delta Dawn perfectly and hands my cornet back to me with a smug expression. I don’t even know whether I am capable of playing Delta Dawn in my dream, but I’m embarrassed regardless.

Getting shown up by Nick Saban on the cornet in a dream feels roughly the same as getting shown up by him on the football field in real life. Worse, I’ve been singing Oh, Delta Dawn most of the day. Why couldn’t it have been something by Bon Jovi or Journey or something?

Anyway . . .

Statsy Preview Machine Current Predictions for the Remainder of the season

Yes, the SPM is currently favoring the Vols in only one more game this year.

My assessment

My expected win total for this season is now 4.3.

Here’s how I’ve tracked this season:

• Preseason: 5.4
• After beating South Carolina: 5.8
• After beating Missouri: No analysis, but would have gone up
• After the loss to Georgia: 5.45
• After the loss to Kentucky: 4.3
• After the loss to Alabama: 4.25

Details: I have Florida at 10%, Texas A&M at 40% (no longer at odds with the SPM on this one), Auburn at 45%, Arkansas at 50%, and Vanderbilt at 80%.

Here’s a table with my expectations this week:

Tennessee Volunteers currently

Current record: 2-3, 4th in the SEC East

The pre-game facts: Vegas thought Tennessee would lose to Alabama by 21. SP+ thought they’d lose by 18.5, and the GRT Statsy Preview Machine thought they’d lose by 25. The Vols lost by 31. The facts always seems worse when accompanied by emotions, but objectively speaking, what we saw on Saturday isn’t really much different from what we expected. So for me, Saturday’s result had some impact on how I feel but little to no impact on my expectations going forward.

The Vols’ future opponents

Arkansas Razorbacks

Current record: 2-2, 4th in the SEC West

Off. No change. Still a toss up at 50%.

Texas A&M

Current record: 3-1, 2nd in the SEC West

Off. No change. Still at 40%.

Auburn Tigers

Current record: 3-2, 3rd in the SEC West

Auburn’s 7-point win over Ole Miss was actually closer than it seemed. No real change in my opinion of Auburn this week, and I’m keeping this game at 45%.

Vanderbilt Commodores

Current record: 0-3, 7th in the SEC East

Off. No change. Still at 80%.

Florida Gators

Current record: 2-1, 2nd in the SEC East

Off. No change. 10%.

The Vols’ past opponents

South Carolina Gamecocks

Current record: 2-3, 4th in the SEC East

Hmm. A blow-out loss to a struggling LSU team might have me thinking less of Tennessee’s win over the Gamecocks. For now, though, no. At least not yet.

Missouri Tigers

Current record: 2-2, 3rd in the SEC East

Oh, boy. What do we do when a team that we beat by 23 beats a team that beat us by 27 by 10? Shake our heads and conclude that an All-SEC schedule in 2020 is going to produce results like that.

Georgia

Current record: 3-1, 1st in the SEC East

Off. No change.

Kentucky Wildcats

Current record: 2-3, 4th in the SEC East

See Missouri above. Shrug.

Alabama Crimson Tide

Current record: 5-0, 1st in the SEC West

Huh. When you look at the rest of Alabama’s resume, you might feel a bit better. We didn’t give up 63. We only scored one touchdown less than a couple of ranked teams. As good as Georgia is, they only gave up one fewer touchdown and scored one more. Alabama’s just good. End of story. Call it reaching if you want, but it’s the truth.

Don’t forget to submit your own ballot to the GRT Win Total Machine.

It’s Post-Game Monday, which means that it’s time to re-assess our expected win totals in light of Tennessee’s loss to Kentucky on Saturday. You can submit your own ballot at the GRT Expected Win Total Machine page.

Statsy Preview Machine Current Predictions for the Remainder of the season

My assessment

My expected win total for this season is now 4.3.

Here’s how I’ve tracked this season:

• Preseason: 5.4
• After beating South Carolina: 5.8
• After beating Missouri: No analysis, but would have gone up
• After the loss to Georgia: 5.45
• After the loss to Kentucky: 4.3

Details: I have Alabama at 5%, Florida at 10%, Texas A&M at 40% (I’m at odds with the SPM on this one), Auburn at 45%, Arkansas at 50%, and Vanderbilt at 80%.

Here’s a table with my expectations this week:

Tennessee Volunteers currently

Current record: 2-2, 3rd in the SEC East

I poured out my heart in the slow-cooked post-game but didn’t draw any conclusion about how it impacted my assessment of the team. I think if they fix the turnovers, they’ll basically be okay but still not quite as good as I was hoping/expecting this season. Plus, I don’t know whether they can fix the turnover problem. So, I am not feeling nearly as good about the ability of Tennessee itself to do what we all want it to do the rest of the way. That’s going to result in lowering of expectations independent of what any other opponent did this week.

The Vols’ future opponents

Alabama Crimson Tide

Current record: 4-0, 1st in the SEC West

Although I did pick Georgia to finally win against Alabama Saturday night, I wasn’t surprised that the Tide pulled it out. I was, however, somewhat surprised that they also pulled away and won by 17. Shaking my head. I had this game at 25% last week, and I am depressed to inform you that I have now moved it down to 5%. Just like old times.

Arkansas Razorbacks

Current record: 2-2, 3rd in the SEC West

Ole Miss scored 48 points against Alabama two weeks ago but could only muster 21 against Arkansas. Let that sink in a minute. And remember — that loss to Auburn was a direct result of a bad call that would have changed the outcome of the game to give Arkansas the win. I had the Hogs at 60% last week but am now calling it a toss up at 50%.

Texas A&M

Current record: 3-1, 2nd in the SEC West

Mississippi State is a mess, but A&M still looked pretty good. There’s no shame in losing to Alabama. Mostly, it’s that win over Florida that makes these guys look good. My opinion of them hasn’t really changed, but I’m still moving this game from 45% to 40% just because I’m currently a bit deflated about the Vols themselves.

Auburn Tigers

Current record: 2-2, 3rd in the SEC West

Auburn basically losing to Arkansas last week (but getting a W for it) and losing to South Carolina this week makes me feel a bit better about this game, but Bo Nix is going to be frustrating for our defense, which will be chasing him around all night. I would move them from 45% to a toss up, but with the Vols putting up a stinker as well, I’m keeping this one right where it is, especially because the loss came at the hands of a South Carolina team that looked good against the Tigers but lost to Tennessee.

Vanderbilt Commodores

Current record: 0-3, 7th in the SEC East

Vandy didn’t play this week due to COVID. But because the Vols had a bad week, I’m moving this game from 90% to 80%.

Florida Gators

Current record: 2-1, 2nd in the SEC East

Florida’s game with LSU was also postponed due to COVID, but I’m moving this one from 20% to 10%.

The Vols’ past opponents

South Carolina Gamecocks

Current record: 2-2, 3rd in the SEC East

See Auburn above. Although I’m feeling a bit better about Auburn, I’m also feeling a bit better about Tennessee having beaten South Carolina, because they looked really good.

Missouri Tigers

Current record: 1-2, 6th in the SEC East

The Tigers’ game with Vandy was postponed due to COVID this week.

Georgia

Current record: 3-1, 1st in the SEC East

See Alabama above. Georgia beating us by 23 and losing to Alabama by 17 is frightening.

Kentucky Wildcats

Current record: 2-2, 3rrd in the SEC East

Hats off to the Wildcats for not only beating the Vols Saturday, but for making us look bad while doing it.

Don’t forget to submit your own ballot to the GRT Win Total Machine.

It’s Post-Game Monday, which means that it’s time to re-assess our expected win totals in light of what happened this past weekend. You can submit your own ballot at the GRT Expected Win Total Machine page.

My assessment

I’m writing this early Sunday morning, so what I’m writing may be a bit amplified by the proximity to yesterday’s disappointment.

My expected win total for this season is now 5.45.

Here’s how I’ve tracked this season:

• Preseason: 5.4
• After beating South Carolina: 5.8
• After beating Missouri: No analysis, but would have gone up
• After the loss to Georgia: 5.45

Details: I have Florida at 20%, Alabama at 25%, A&M and Auburn at 45%, Kentucky and Arkansas at 60%, and Vanderbilt at 90%.

Here’s a table with my expectations this week:

Tennessee Volunteers currently

Current record: 2-1, 2nd in the SEC East

I’m sure I’m no different than most Vols fans in that I was feeling pretty good about Tennessee after wins over South Carolina and Missouri. I didn’t think the Vols would beat Georgia, but I did think it wouldn’t feel like a replay of the past several years. In the first half, it didn’t feel like that, as the offense appeared to be doing just enough to hang with the Bulldogs and maybe even win and the defense was frustrating Georgia’s offense.

But Georgia’s superb defense was just too much in the second half, having its way with Tennessee’s talented offensive line over and over and over again while the Vols’ defense slowly gave out.

I’m cautioning myself not to overreact too much. Georgia is a national title contender, after all, and if Tennessee can still take care of business against the SEC East’s second tier, it still has plenty of opportunities (Alabama, Florida) to maybe get one of those elusive wins against elite teams. And even without that, there’s room to grow with additional opportunities against teams like A&M and Auburn that appear to be somewhere in between the elite and the SEC East’s second tier.

The question, of course, is whether I think any of that is actually reasonable. At this point, I do, although my certainty about it has waned significantly after this weekend.

Bottom line: I’m only slightly more concerned about the Vols themselves this week than I was last week.

The Vols’ future opponents

Kentucky Wildcats

Current record: 1-2, 4th in the SEC East

I’m feeling worse about the Kentucky Wildcats, and not just because they had six (!) interceptions this weekend. After watching Ole Miss score almost at will against Alabama last night, that one-point loss in overtime to the Rebels is looking pretty good as well. I’m moving them from 70% to 60%.

Alabama Crimson Tide

Current record: 3-0, 1st in the SEC West

Again, I’m not sure whether last night’s back-and-forth with Ole Miss is more credit to Lane Kiffin or concern about Alabama’s defense. For now, I’m splitting the difference on that. So, I’m feeling slightly better about Alabama this week. Sure, they also scored 63 points, but it’s beginning to become clear that Ole Miss can’t stop anybody so maybe that’s not quite as impressive as it seems. I’m moving the Tide from 20% to 25%.

Arkansas Razorbacks

Current record: 1-2, 4th in the SEC West

Arkansas would have beaten Auburn if not for a botched call that replay wasn’t able to overturn. I’m feeling much worse about these guys. They no longer seem like the Vanderbilt of the West; they look like either a member of the second tier in the SEC East or, gulp, like us. I’m moving them to 60% and just below Kentucky.

Texas A&M

Current record: 2-1, 2nd in the SEC West

A&M exposed Florida’s problems on defense. Whether that means they are finally now who we thought they were preseason, I don’t know. I do know that I feel worse about them today than I did two days ago. I’m moving them from 50% to 45%.

Auburn Tigers

Current record: 2-1, 2nd in the SEC West

See Arkansas above. Auburn lost this on a botched snap that Bo Nix then attempted to spike backward, basically making it a lateral. Arkansas recovered, but the refs on the field got it wrong, and the rules say that replay couldn’t correct it, probably because the whistle blew and players stopped playing. Still, the Tigers are dangerous. I’m feeling like these guys are essentially the same as Texas A&M, so I’m making both of them 45% and giving the Tigers the edge.

Vanderbilt Commodores

Current record: 0-3, 7th in the SEC East

See South Carolina above. No change in perception of the ‘Dores: 90%.

Florida Gators

Current record: 2-1, 2nd in the SEC East

See A&M above. I’m not sure whether to credit A&M for the win or be a little less concerned about the Gators because of their defense. Bottom line, I think I feel a little less concerned about them this week than last. That offense is really good, but yes, the defense does make them vulnerable. I’m keeping them at 20% and making them the most difficult game remaining due to dropping Alabama to 25%.

The Vols’ past opponents

South Carolina Gamecocks

Current record: 1-2, 4th in the SEC East

South Carolina basically did what it was supposed to do against Vanderbilt this week. That means no change in perception and no impact on perception of Tennessee for me.

Missouri Tigers

Current record: 1-2, 4th in the SEC East

Who knows whether Missouri beating LSU says more about Missouri or more about LSU? I feel maybe slightly better about Tennessee now that Missouri has beaten LSU, but I wonder if LSU is just as much of a mess as I thought they would be preseason. Of course, I also thought the Georgia offense would struggle and I appear to have been wrong about that, so maybe Missouri deserves more credit than I’m giving them.

Georgia

Current record: 3-0, 1st in the SEC East

We’ll see how Georgia does against Alabama next week. I really thought their offense would struggle more this season and that Tennessee’s offensive line would be closer to an even match against that defense than it turned out to be.

What about you? Where are your expectations for the Vols now? You can post your current thoughts and details here, but don’t forget to submit your ballot to the GRT Win Total Machine.

It’s Post-Game Monday, which means that it’s time to re-assess our expected win totals in light of what happened this past weekend. You can submit your own ballot at the GRT Expected Win Total Machine page. Here’s how everything shakes out for me.

My assessment

As we said on the GRT Podcast this week, the Vols’ 31-27 win over the Gamecocks was a Big, Beautiful Ugly. There are some things that the team definitely needs to get corrected — third down conversions, defending the slant route, etc. — but there were glimpses of something special, and the team did avoid blowing up in an upset minefield.

My expected win total for this season is now 5.8.

Here’s how I’ve tracked this season:

• Preseason: 5.4
• After South Carolina: 5.8

Details: I have Vanderbilt at 90%, Arkansas at 80%, Missouri and Kentucky at 70%, A&M at 50%, Georgia and Auburn at 40%

Here’s a table with my expectations this week:

Tennessee Volunteers currently

Current record: 1-0 (1-0), T-1st in the SEC East

The Vols’ future opponents

Missouri Tigers

Current record: 0-1 (0-1), T-4th in the SEC East

There is no shame in losing to an already-humming Alabama team. I feel pretty much the same about Missouri as I did last week, so I’m keeping them at 70%.

Georgia

Current record: 1-0 (1-0), T-1st in the SEC East

So, 37-10 looks better on Monday than it did during the game on Saturday. Georgia’s offense is having problems, and, in my opinion, it has more to do with the offensive line than anything else. I also think that is hard to fix in-season. Still, I am moving them only slightly toward the green, from 35% to 40%.

Kentucky Wildcats

Current record: 0-1 (0-1), T-4th in the SEC East

It’s hard to say what to do with this information. You feel better about Kentucky, but worse about Auburn. Maybe. For now, I’m changing Kentucky from 60% to 70%.

Alabama Crimson Tide

Current record: 1-0 (1-0), T-1st in the SEC West

I had Alabama at 25%, but I’m moving them down to only 20%. The way they looked like they hadn’t missed a beat, that may still be too high.

Arkansas Razorbacks

Current record: 0-1 (0-1), T-5th in the SEC West

These guys looked better earlier than I thought they would, so I’m moving them from 90% to 80%.

Texas A&M

Current record: 1-0 (1-0), T-1st in the SEC West

We have the same problem with Texas A&M/Vanderbilt as we do with Kentucky-Auburn. For now, I’m docking A&M more than giving Vandy credit. I’m moving the Aggies from 40% to 50%.

Auburn Tigers

Current record: 1-0 (1-0), T-1st in the SEC West

See Kentucky above. I’m keeping the Tigers where they were, at 40%.

Vanderbilt Commodores

Current record: 0-1 (0-1), T-4th in the SEC East

See A&M above. I’m keeping the Commodores where they were, at 90% for now.

Florida Gators

Current record: 1-0 (1-0), T-1st in the SEC East

Oof. These guys look maybe as tough as Alabama. Moving them from 30% to 20%.

What about you? Where are your expectations for the Vols now? You can post your current thoughts and details here, but don’t forget to submit your ballot to the GRT Win Total Machine.

We fired up our Expected Win Total Machine this week as soon as the SEC released the new 2020 schedule. If you haven’t already, you can go there and put in your win probabilities for every game on Tennessee’s new schedule, and the machine will give you how many games you think the Vols will win this season. It’s one thing to say you think the Vols will go 6-4 with wins over abc and losses to xyz. But we find it to be a better, healthier exercise to assign win probabilities for each game to get a record projection.

What does a successful season look like now? Our community projects the Vols to win 5.82 games against this schedule. If you round up to a 6-4 finish, that would guarantee Tennessee beat at least one of its five preseason Top 15 opponents. Pre-pandemic, an 8-4 finish against the original schedule felt like the head-nod verdict: yep, okay, that’s probably what we should expect, moving on. But whereas an 8-4 finish against the original schedule didn’t guarantee you a marquee win, a 6-4 finish against a 10-game SEC slate should include at least one signature win.

As we know, not all 8-4’s are created equal, and neither will all 6-4’s this year. But some of the things we use to measure success – like a traditional January 1 bowl – may not be available this season. Signature wins will be more important than ever, but so too will overall progress in metrics like SP+. It still holds that one of the best ways to measure progress for the 2020 Vols is the, “We have a chance to win this game,” test. After 2001, the only Tennessee team not to lose at least one three-possession game is 2015. That would be a good list for the 2020 Vols to be on.

Everything is about the SEC East race. That should really always be the case. The original move of the Georgia game to November would’ve kept the Vols in the SEC East chase much longer than usual, just for the hope of knocking off the Dawgs in Athens towards the end of the season. Now Georgia is in week three, but I think Tennessee actually benefits from that trade: Florida is the season finale instead of a mid-November date, and the Gators’ schedule offers them a better chance to be the team to beat. Lose in week three to Georgia and you’re behind, but the Dawgs are in Tuscaloosa the very next week, where Tennessee could instantly get a game back. Simply by playing Alabama, Georgia is the easier team to catch in the standings if you don’t beat them head-to-head. And even if the Gators do find success against their lighter load, Tennessee can still knock them off in Knoxville in December. The Vols should stay in the race for a long time this season, and that in and of itself will feel very much like progress.

Trap opponents out of trap weeks. If we assume Vanderbilt and Arkansas don’t qualify as trap games because the Vols should be able to overwhelm them with talent, the remaining candidates are South Carolina, Missouri, and Kentucky…and the Cats only qualify because they haven’t won in Knoxville since 1984. But now, Tennessee gets trap opponents in weeks one and two. If we learned anything at all from Georgia State, the Vols shouldn’t be caught off guard out the gate. So while we didn’t want to play two non-Top 15 opponents back-to-back to help with the schedule’s overall rhythm, it’s a really good setup on the front end.

Here’s how our community rates Tennessee’s chances in each game:

• at South Carolina: 67.1%
• Missouri: 76.1%
• at Georgia: 30.0%
• Kentucky: 68.0%
• Alabama: 23.6%
• at Arkansas: 85.3%
• Texas A&M: 50.4%
• at Auburn: 46.9%
• at Vanderbilt: 88.6%
• Florida: 46.1%

The SEC finally (re-)released the 2020 SEC football schedule yesterday, so we now have something to talk about other than just whether we’re actually going to make it to the starting line. That means it’s time to fire up the Gameday on Rocky Top Expected Win Total Machine.

The 2020 Expected Win Total Machine

---

My assessment

My expected win total is 5.4.

If I was just assigning wins and losses, I’d be at 5-5.

Details

at South Carolina: 70%

Missouri: 70%

at Georgia: 35%

Kentucky: 60%

Alabama: 25%

at Arkansas: 90%

Texas A&M: 35%

at Auburn: 35%

at Vanderbilt: 90%

Florida: 30%

And here’s how it looks with its church clothes on:

There’s only one regular season game remaining for the Vols, and you don’t need a machine to help you figure out what it means for your expected overall regular season record. So this week, we’ve added an unknown bowl game to the mix. Does it depend on who we might play? Of course! Do we know who that will be? No! Are we going to ask you to submit an answer anyway? Yes!

Use the form below to calculate your expected win total for the rest of the season.

The GRT Expected Win Total Machine

---

My assessment

On the scoreboard, Tennessee’s 24-20 win over Missouri doesn’t really look all that impressive, but they left several points on the table. If you look at the rest of the stats, they dominated, and that is how it felt to me. And that was a really good defense they just put 500 yards on. I’m feeling better about the Vols than I have since October 7, 2016.

We’ve been tracking only regular season expectations to this point, and my expected win total for that is now 6.8.

With the bowl, my expected win total is 7.3.

Here’s how I’ve tracked this season:

• Preseason: 6.55
• After Week 0: 6.6
• After Week 1: 2.87
• After Week 2: 2.37
• After Week 3: 3.65
• After Week 4: 2.9
• After Week 5: 3.25
• After Week 6: 3.85
• After Week 7: 4.4
• After Week 8: 4.7
• After Week 9: 5.6
• After Week 10: 5.9
• After Week 11: 6.4
• After Week 12: 6.4
• After Week 13 (regular season): 6.8
• After Week 13 (with bowl): 7.3

Details: I have Vanderbilt at 80% and the bowl game at 50%.

Here’s a table with my expectations this week:

Tennessee Volunteers currently

Current record: 6-5 (4-3), 3rd in the SEC East

The Vols’ future opponents

Vanderbilt Commodores

Current record: 3-8 (1-6), 7th in the SEC East

These guys beat ETSU 38-0 this week., and they do have a good win over a then-ranked Missouri team. Other than that, though, that’s a lot of Ls.

The Vols’ past opponents

Georgia State Panthers

Current record: 7-4 (4-3), 2nd in the Sun Belt East

It’s no excuse for the Vols’ loss to these guys to open the 2019 season, but Georgia State is better than we were giving them credit for.

BYU Cougars

Current record: 7-4

Also probably better than we were giving them credit for.

Chattanooga Mocs

Current record: 6-6 (5-3), 3rd in the Southern Conference

Florida Gators

Current record: 9-2 (6-2), 2nd in the SEC East

Off this week, but they are currently ranked No. 8 in the nation.

Georgia Bulldogs

Current record: 10-1 (7-1), 1st in the SEC East

Everything that everybody is saying about Georgia is true: They’re not explosive and may run into problems against teams that also have good defenses but are explosive on offense to boot. We’ll find out in the SEC Championship Game, I guess. But that defense . . . woo-boy.

Mississippi State Bulldogs

Current record: 5-6 (2-5), 5th in the SEC West

Alabama Crimson Tide

Current record: 10-1 (6-1), 2nd in the SEC West

Looked fine without Tua . . . against Western Carolina.

South Carolina Gamecocks

Current record: 4-7 (3-5), 4th in the SEC East

Off this week. Off the rails this season. A game against Clemson remaining. Oof.

UAB Blazers

Current record: 8-3 (5-2), 1st in C-USA West

Kentucky Wildcats

Current record: 6-5 (3-5), 4th in the SEC East

Missouri Tigers

Current record: 5-6 (2-5), 6th in the SEC East

What about you? Where are your expectations for the Vols now?

Use the form below to calculate your expected win total for the rest of the season.

The GRT Expected Win Total Machine

---

My assessment

The Vols were off this week, so there’s no change in expectations there. And Vanderbilt looked about the same as usual, so there’s no change there. Missouri, well . . . Kelly Bryant played, so that made me more uncomfortable about him playing next week against the Vols, but the Tigers offense still struggled even with him at the helm and the team at home. So no change for me there, either.

My current expected win total is still 6.4. I think 6 wins is pretty safe, and hitting the preseason goal of 7-5 will all come down to the Missouri game. That, by the way, would also mean that the team beat our GRT 2019 magazine preseason goals of finishing 4th in the SEC East behind Missouri despite playing much of the season without the guy on the cover. Win both remaining games, and the Vols finish 5-3, and the closest Missouri could get would be 4-4. These are eggs and not chickens, though, so Tennessee needs to keep them safe and warm for two more weeks.

Here’s how I’ve tracked this season:

• Preseason: 6.55
• After Week 0: 6.6
• After Week 1: 2.87
• After Week 2: 2.37
• After Week 3: 3.65
• After Week 4: 2.9
• After Week 5: 3.25
• After Week 6: 3.85
• After Week 7: 4.4
• After Week 8: 4.7
• After Week 9: 5.6
• After Week 10: 5.9
• After Week 11: 6.4
• After Week 12: 6.4

Details: I still have Missouri at 60% and Vanderbilt at 80%.

Here’s a table with my expectations this week:

Tennessee Volunteers currently

Current record: 5-5 (3-3), 3rd in the SEC East

Off this week.

The Vols’ future opponents

Missouri Tigers

Current record: 5-5 (2-4), 4th in the SEC East

Kelly Bryant played this week for Missouri against the Gators, and he was slippery but the offense was still mostly ineffective, and the team is now on a four-game losing streak. The Tigers defense was tough in the first half, but Florida still ended up getting 23 against them. The SPM hasn’t liked Tennessee in this one all season — until this week, and now it’s looking like it’s going to come down to keeping Bryant from getting back on track.

Vanderbilt Commodores

Current record: 2-8 (1-6), 7th in the SEC East

As Will has been fond of saying the past several weeks, Vanderbilt is just a bad football team. Against Kentucky this weekend, they managed only 198 yards of offense while giving up 528 yards to the Wildcats. If it weren’t for the recent history of struggles, we wouldn’t be worried about these guys at all.

The Vols’ past opponents

Georgia State Panthers

Current record: 6-4 (3-3), 3rd in the Sun Belt East

There’s no shame in losing to App State, and sitting at 6-4 with two winnable games to go after a 2-10 season last year has to feel good for the Panthers.

BYU Cougars

Current record: 6-4

Chattanooga Mocs

Current record: 6-5 (5-2), 3rd in the Southern Conference

Florida Gators

Current record: 9-2 (6-2), 2nd in the SEC East

Georgia Bulldogs

Current record: 9-1 (6-1), 1st in the SEC East

Georgia looked good against Auburn and had the game well in hand until Auburn caught some lightning and made a game of it. The Tigers actually ended up with more yards and more first downs than the Bulldogs, but it was too late. With the Gators and Tigers now behind them, Georgia looks ready to roll the rest of the way home into the post-season.

Mississippi State Bulldogs

Current record: 4-6 (2-5), 5th in the SEC West

Alabama Crimson Tide

Current record: 9-1 (6-1), 2nd in the SEC West

Prayers for Tua. To make the SEC Championship Game again this year, Alabama would have to win out (including the Iron Bowl) and have LSU lose twice. The former is possible, even without Tua, but one of LSU’s remaining games is against Arkansas. In other words, LSU is not going to lose twice.

South Carolina Gamecocks

Current record: 4-7 (3-5), 4th in the SEC East

We warned in our preseason magazine that South Carolina had the toughest schedule in the SEC and that the Gamecocks could struggle even if they were good. It’s hard to say at this point whether they’re actually good, but there can be no doubt that they have succumbed to that brutal schedule. They’ve lost 7 games already with only No. 3 Clemson left, and they’re likely to finish this season 4-8 and home for the holidays.

UAB Blazers

Current record: 7-3 (4-2), 3rd in C-USA West

Kentucky Wildcats

Current record: 5-5 (3-5), 4th in the SEC East

What about you? Where are your expectations for the Vols now?

Use the form below to calculate your expected win total for the rest of the season.

The GRT Expected Win Total Machine

---

My assessment

About the Vols: It was a terrible start for the good guys against Kentucky, but they eventually got it figured out. And it was a bit hairy in the end, but Guarantano got just enough points and the defense got just enough stops to put another W on the board. This bodes well for the team the rest of the way.

About the remaining opponents: Florida made Vandy look even worse, and Georgia appeared to do the same thing against Missouri, although the Tigers were missing Kelly Bryant at quarterback and their leading receiver. I’m still reserving judgment on Missouri for now because of that.

A slight bump for the Vols, Vandy looks worse, Missouri who knows? I now have an expected win total of . . . 5.9 6.4 (thanks to Will, who pointed out on the podcast that that 5.9 wasn’t right. Lazy cut and paste job.) Same as last week. If things change for the better (for the Vols) with Missouri, that number will jump. A win against the Tigers will not only change that number from 60 to 100, it may result in me increasing my Vandy number up from 80. Basically, beat Missouri in two weeks, and I’ll be back to over my preseason expectations, and feeling better about rounding up to boot.

Here’s how I’ve tracked this season:

• Preseason: 6.55
• After Week 0: 6.6
• After Week 1: 2.87
• After Week 2: 2.37
• After Week 3: 3.65
• After Week 4: 2.9
• After Week 5: 3.25
• After Week 6: 3.85
• After Week 7: 4.4
• After Week 8: 4.7
• After Week 9: 5.6
• After Week 10: 5.9
• After Week 11: 5.9 6.4

Details: I kept Missouri at 60% and dropped Vanderbilt to 80%.

Here’s a table with my expectations this week:

Tennessee Volunteers currently

Current record: 5-5 (3-3), 3rd in the SEC East

The Vols’ future opponents

Missouri Tigers

Current record: 5-4 (2-3), 4th in the SEC East

This one’s going to depend on whether Kelly Bryant plays. Without him (and leading receiver Johnathon Johnson) this week against Georgia, they scored zero points. Two different quarterbacks managed only 148 yards passing, and the team added only 50 yards on the ground.

Vanderbilt Commodores

Current record: 2-7 (1-5), 7th in the SEC East

Yikes, Vandy. A total of 77 yards passing and 51 yards rushing. They gave up 410 yards passing and 150 rushing.

The Vols’ past opponents

Georgia State Panthers

Current record: 6-3 (3-2), 2nd in the Sun Belt East

BYU Cougars

Current record: 5-4

Chattanooga Mocs

Current record: 5-5 (4-2), 3rd in the Southern Conference

Florida Gators

Current record: 8-2 (5-2), 2nd in the SEC East

Georgia Bulldogs

Current record: 8-1 (5-1), 1st in the SEC East

Mississippi State Bulldogs

Current record: 4-5 (2-4), 5th in the SEC West

Off this week.

Alabama Crimson Tide

Current record: 8-1 (5-1), 2nd in the SEC West

This week’s Alabama-LSU game was great fun. LSU looked really, really good, although Alabama wasn’t really the same team with a hobbled Tua at quarterback. The rest of the team, too, just looked discombobulated, which was really uncharacteristic for the Tide.

South Carolina Gamecocks

Current record: 4-6 (3-4), 4th in the SEC East

The SPM saw this one coming, but I didn’t really believe it until App. State was up late. The game was pretty even, but the Mountaineers scored a valuable touchdown via pick six, and South Carolina missed a wide open receiver in the end zone late, which would have put them ahead.

UAB Blazers

Current record: 6-3 (3-2), 3rd in C-USA West

That’s right. UAB scored 2 points this week against Southern Miss.

Kentucky Wildcats

Current record: 4-5 (2-5), 6th in the SEC East

What about you? Where are your expectations for the Vols now?

Use the form below to calculate your expected win total for the rest of the season.

The GRT Expected Win Total Machine

---

My assessment

About the Vols: I wouldn’t characterize my concern about UAB this weekend as worry, but I was quite wary. Even that was misplaced, though, as Tennessee looked mostly really good Saturday night against the Blazers. With three games to go, they can afford only one slip up for bowl eligibility, and they have a chance to run the table and meet preseason expectations. If they do that, it will mean that they both lost two games and won two games they shouldn’t have. I’m thinking they have a chance, as it appears they will be favorites against Kentucky and Vanderbilt, and they may well be favorites against Missouri after the Tigers play Georgia and Florida in consecutive weeks.

I’ve made no adjustments this week, but with UAB becoming 100% instead of 70%, I now have an expected win total of . . . 5.9.

Here’s how I’ve tracked this season:

• Preseason: 6.55
• After Week 0: 6.6
• After Week 1: 2.87
• After Week 2: 2.37
• After Week 3: 3.65
• After Week 4: 2.9
• After Week 5: 3.25
• After Week 6: 3.85
• After Week 7: 4.4
• After Week 8: 4.7
• After Week 9: 5.6
• After Week 10: 5.9

Details: I kept everybody right where they were at last week: Kentucky and Missouri at 60%, and Vanderbilt at 70%.

Here’s a table with my expectations this week:

Tennessee Volunteers currently

Current record: 4-5 (2-3), 4th in the SEC East

The Vols’ future opponents

Kentucky Wildcats

Current record: 4-4 (2-4), 6th in the SEC East

Kentucky was off this week while the Vols took on UAB.

Missouri Tigers

Current record: 5-3 (2-2), 3rd in the SEC East

The Tigers were also off this week, but they’re coming off two consecutive losses to Vanderbilt and Kentucky and now have two consecutive games against Georgia and Florida. They’re likely to come to Neyland on November 23 hurting, both physically and mentally.

Vanderbilt Commodores

Current record: 2-6 (1-4), 7th in the SEC East

Vanderbilt looked good early this week against South Carolina, but faded fast.

The Vols’ past opponents

Georgia State Panthers

Current record: 6-2 (3-1), 2nd in the Sun Belt East

Off this week.

BYU Cougars

Current record: 4-4

Good win for the Cougars this week against Utah State.

Chattanooga Mocs

Current record: 4-5 (3-2), 4th in the Southern Conference

Florida Gators

Current record: 7-2 (4-2), 2nd in the SEC East

This year’s edition of the Florida-Georgia game was a good one with both teams showing like they deserved their Top 10 rankings.

Georgia Bulldogs

Current record: 7-1 (4-1), 1st in the SEC East

Hard-fought game for Georgia this week against the Gators, but Jake Fromm was money on third down. Former Tennessee tight end Eli Wolf sealed the deal with a huge catch for a first down that allowed the Bulldogs to run out the clock.

Mississippi State Bulldogs

Current record: 4-5 (2-4), 5th in the SEC West

Kylin Hill, the SEC’s leading rusher, had 21 carries for 234 yards and 3 touchdowns against the Razorbacks this week. Against Tennessee, he had 11 carries for 13 yards. Woo.

Alabama Crimson Tide

Current record: 8-0 (5-0), 1st in the SEC West

Off in advance of a big showdown with LSU next week.

South Carolina Gamecocks

Current record: 4-5 (3-4), 4th in the SEC East

Expected result this week for the Gamecocks.

UAB Blazers

Current record: 6-2 (3-1), 2nd in C-USA West

What about you? Where are your expectations for the Vols now?