The GRT Expected Win Total Machine: With two games to go

Use the form below to calculate your expected win total for the rest of the season.

The GRT Expected Win Total Machine


My assessment

About the Vols: It was a terrible start for the good guys against Kentucky, but they eventually got it figured out. And it was a bit hairy in the end, but Guarantano got just enough points and the defense got just enough stops to put another W on the board. This bodes well for the team the rest of the way.

About the remaining opponents: Florida made Vandy look even worse, and Georgia appeared to do the same thing against Missouri, although the Tigers were missing Kelly Bryant at quarterback and their leading receiver. I’m still reserving judgment on Missouri for now because of that.

A slight bump for the Vols, Vandy looks worse, Missouri who knows? I now have an expected win total of . . . 5.9 6.4 (thanks to Will, who pointed out on the podcast that that 5.9 wasn’t right. Lazy cut and paste job.) Same as last week. If things change for the better (for the Vols) with Missouri, that number will jump. A win against the Tigers will not only change that number from 60 to 100, it may result in me increasing my Vandy number up from 80. Basically, beat Missouri in two weeks, and I’ll be back to over my preseason expectations, and feeling better about rounding up to boot.

Here’s how I’ve tracked this season:

  • Preseason: 6.55
  • After Week 0: 6.6
  • After Week 1: 2.87
  • After Week 2: 2.37
  • After Week 3: 3.65
  • After Week 4: 2.9
  • After Week 5: 3.25
  • After Week 6: 3.85
  • After Week 7: 4.4
  • After Week 8: 4.7
  • After Week 9: 5.6
  • After Week 10: 5.9
  • After Week 11: 5.9 6.4

Details: I kept Missouri at 60% and dropped Vanderbilt to 80%.

Here’s a table with my expectations this week:

Tennessee Volunteers currently

Current record: 5-5 (3-3), 3rd in the SEC East

The Vols’ future opponents

Missouri Tigers

Current record: 5-4 (2-3), 4th in the SEC East

This one’s going to depend on whether Kelly Bryant plays. Without him (and leading receiver Johnathon Johnson) this week against Georgia, they scored zero points. Two different quarterbacks managed only 148 yards passing, and the team added only 50 yards on the ground.

Vanderbilt Commodores

Current record: 2-7 (1-5), 7th in the SEC East

Yikes, Vandy. A total of 77 yards passing and 51 yards rushing. They gave up 410 yards passing and 150 rushing.

The Vols’ past opponents

Georgia State Panthers

Current record: 6-3 (3-2), 2nd in the Sun Belt East

BYU Cougars

Current record: 5-4

Chattanooga Mocs

Current record: 5-5 (4-2), 3rd in the Southern Conference

Florida Gators

Current record: 8-2 (5-2), 2nd in the SEC East

Georgia Bulldogs

Current record: 8-1 (5-1), 1st in the SEC East

Mississippi State Bulldogs

Current record: 4-5 (2-4), 5th in the SEC West

Off this week.

Alabama Crimson Tide

Current record: 8-1 (5-1), 2nd in the SEC West

This week’s Alabama-LSU game was great fun. LSU looked really, really good, although Alabama wasn’t really the same team with a hobbled Tua at quarterback. The rest of the team, too, just looked discombobulated, which was really uncharacteristic for the Tide.

South Carolina Gamecocks

Current record: 4-6 (3-4), 4th in the SEC East

The SPM saw this one coming, but I didn’t really believe it until App. State was up late. The game was pretty even, but the Mountaineers scored a valuable touchdown via pick six, and South Carolina missed a wide open receiver in the end zone late, which would have put them ahead.

UAB Blazers

Current record: 6-3 (3-2), 3rd in C-USA West

That’s right. UAB scored 2 points this week against Southern Miss.

Kentucky Wildcats

Current record: 4-5 (2-5), 6th in the SEC East

What about you? Where are your expectations for the Vols now?

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HTGavin DriskillJayyyyWill SheltonIsaac Bishop Recent comment authors
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Isaac Bishop
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Isaac Bishop

6.5 this week

Screw Mizzou we’re going 7-5 this year

Will Shelton
Will Shelton

I’m at 6.2. Nevermind anything I said about feeling uncomfortable putting Vandy at like 80%. Those dudes are bad. That’s a W.

Jayyyy
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Jayyyy

6.1, getting detroyed by mizzou in the past still makes me nervous about going to columbia

Gavin Driskill
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Gavin Driskill

I’m…on the optimistic side now?

Up to 6.3. Mizzou, even with Kelly Bryant, feels like just under a coin flip (45%) and Vandy is awful. Like really awful. 85% there.

HT
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HT

July 25, 2019 (pre-season): 5.96
August 26, 2019 (after “Week Zero”): 5.92
September 3, 2019 (post-Georgia St.): 3.86
September 9, 2019 (post-BYU): 3.09
September 16, 2019 (post-Chattanooga): 3.61
September 24, 2019 (post-Florida): 2.71
September 30, 2019 (post open date): 2.61
October 10, 2019 (post-Georgia): 2.76
October 14, 2019 (post-Mississippi St.): 3.87
October 21, 2019 (post-Alabama): 4.00
October 29, 2019 (post-South Carolina): 5.35
November 4, 2019 (post-UAB): 5.70
November 11, 2019 (post-Kentucky): 6.35

Broken down like so: @Mizzou: 50%, Vandy 85%.