Use the form below to calculate your expected win total for the rest of the season.
The GRT Expected Win Total Machine
My assessment
About the Vols: It was a terrible start for the good guys against Kentucky, but they eventually got it figured out. And it was a bit hairy in the end, but Guarantano got just enough points and the defense got just enough stops to put another W on the board. This bodes well for the team the rest of the way.
About the remaining opponents: Florida made Vandy look even worse, and Georgia appeared to do the same thing against Missouri, although the Tigers were missing Kelly Bryant at quarterback and their leading receiver. I’m still reserving judgment on Missouri for now because of that.
A slight bump for the Vols, Vandy looks worse, Missouri who knows? I now have an expected win total of . . . 5.9 6.4 (thanks to Will, who pointed out on the podcast that that 5.9 wasn’t right. Lazy cut and paste job.) Same as last week. If things change for the better (for the Vols) with Missouri, that number will jump. A win against the Tigers will not only change that number from 60 to 100, it may result in me increasing my Vandy number up from 80. Basically, beat Missouri in two weeks, and I’ll be back to over my preseason expectations, and feeling better about rounding up to boot.
Here’s how I’ve tracked this season:
- Preseason: 6.55
- After Week 0: 6.6
- After Week 1: 2.87
- After Week 2: 2.37
- After Week 3: 3.65
- After Week 4: 2.9
- After Week 5: 3.25
- After Week 6: 3.85
- After Week 7: 4.4
- After Week 8: 4.7
- After Week 9: 5.6
- After Week 10: 5.9
- After Week 11:
5.96.4
Details: I kept Missouri at 60% and dropped Vanderbilt to 80%.
Here’s a table with my expectations this week:
Tennessee Volunteers currently
Current record: 5-5 (3-3), 3rd in the SEC East
| Sat, Aug 31 | Lost to Georgia State, 30-38 |
| Sat, Sep 7 | Lost to BYU, 29-26 2OT |
| Sat, Sep 14 | Beat Chattanooga, 45-0 |
| Sat, Sep 21 | Lost @ No. 9 Florida, 34-3 |
| Sat, Oct 5 | Lost to No. 3 Georgia, 43-14 |
| Sat, Oct 12 | Beat Mississippi State, 20-10 |
| Sat, Oct 19 | Lost @ 1 Alabama, 35-13 |
| Sat, Oct 26 | Beat South Carolina, 41-21 |
| Sat, Nov 2 | Beat UAB, 30-7 |
| Sat, Nov 9 | Beat Kentucky, 17-13 |
| Sat, Nov 23 | Beat Missouri, 24-20 |
| Sat, Nov 30 | vs Vanderbilt |
The Vols’ future opponents
Missouri Tigers
Current record: 5-4 (2-3), 4th in the SEC East
| Sat, Aug 31 | Lost to Wyoming, 37-31 |
| Sat, Sep 7 | Beat West Virginia, 38-7 |
| Sat, Sep 14 | Beat Southeast Missouri State, 50-0 |
| Sat, Sep 21 | Beat South Carolina, 34-14 |
| Sat, Oct 5 | Beat Troy, 42-10 |
| Sat, Oct 12 | Beat Ole Miss, 38-27 |
| Sat, Oct 19 | Lost to Vanderbilt, 21-14 |
| Sat, Oct 26 | Lost @ Kentucky, 29-7 |
| Sat, Nov 9 | Lost @ No. 6 Georgia, 27-0 |
| Sat, Nov 16 | Lost to No. 11 Florida, 23-6 |
| Sat, Nov 23 | Lost to Tennessee, 24-20 |
| Fri, Nov 29 | @ Arkansas |
This one’s going to depend on whether Kelly Bryant plays. Without him (and leading receiver Johnathon Johnson) this week against Georgia, they scored zero points. Two different quarterbacks managed only 148 yards passing, and the team added only 50 yards on the ground.
Vanderbilt Commodores
Current record: 2-7 (1-5), 7th in the SEC East
| Sat, Aug 31 | Lost to No. 3 Georgia, 30-6 |
| Sat, Sep 7 | Lost to Purdue, 42-24 |
| Sat, Sep 21 | Lost to No. 4 LSU, 66-38 |
| Sat, Sep 28 | Beat Northern Illinois, 24-18 |
| Sat, Oct 5 | Lost to Ole Miss, 31-6 |
| Sat, Oct 12 | Lost to UNLV, 34-10 |
| Sat, Oct 19 | Beat No. 22 Missouri, 21-14 |
| Sat, Nov 2 | Lost @ South Carolina, 24-7 |
| Sat, Nov 9 | Lost @ No. 10 Florida, 56-0 |
| Sat, Nov 16 | Lost to Kentucky, 38-14 |
| Sat, Nov 23 | Beat ETSU, 38-0 |
| Sat, Nov 30 | @ Tennessee |
Yikes, Vandy. A total of 77 yards passing and 51 yards rushing. They gave up 410 yards passing and 150 rushing.
The Vols’ past opponents
Georgia State Panthers
Current record: 6-3 (3-2), 2nd in the Sun Belt East
| Sat, Aug 31 | Beat Tennessee, 38-30 |
| Sat, Sep 7 | Beat Furman, 48-42 |
| Sat, Sep 14 | Lost to Western Michigan, 57-10 |
| Sat, Sep 21 | Lost @ Texas State, 37-34 3OT |
| Sat, Oct 5 | Beat Arkansas State, 52-38 |
| Sat, Oct 12 | Beat Coastal Carolina, 31-21 |
| Sat, Oct 19 | Beat Army, 28-21 |
| Sat, Oct 26 | Beat Troy, 52-33 |
| Sat, Nov 9 | Lost @ UL Monroe, 45-31 |
| Sat, Nov 16 | Lost to No. 25 Appalachian State, 56-27 |
| Sat, Nov 23 | Beat South Alabama, 28-15 |
| Sat, Nov 30 | @ Georgia Southern |
BYU Cougars
Current record: 5-4
| Thu, Aug 29 | Lost to No. 14 Utah, 12-30 |
| Sat, Sep 7 | Beat Tennessee, 29-26 2OT |
| Sat, Sep 14 | Beat No. 24 USC, 30-27 OT |
| Sat, Sep 21 | Lost to No. 22 Washington, 45-19 |
| Sat, Sep 28 | Lost @ Toledo, 28-21 |
| Sat, Oct 12 | Lost @ South Florida, 27-23 |
| Sat, Oct 19 | Beat No. 14 Boise State, 28-25 |
| Sat, Nov 2 | Beat Utah State, 42-14 |
| Sat, Nov 9 | Beat Liberty, 31-24 |
| Sat, Nov 16 | Beat Idaho State, 42-10 |
| Sat, Nov 23 | Beat UMass, 56-24 |
| Sat, Nov 30 | @ San Diego State |
Chattanooga Mocs
Current record: 5-5 (4-2), 3rd in the Southern Conference
| Thu, Aug 29 | Beat Eastern Illinois, 24-10 |
| Sat, Sep 7 | Lost to Jacksonville State, 41-20 |
| Sat, Sep 14 | Lost at Tennessee, 45-0 |
| Sat, Sep 21 | Lost to James Madison, 37-14 |
| Sat, Sep 28 | Beat Western Carolina, 60-36 |
| Sat, Oct 5 | Beat Mercer, 34-17 |
| Thu, Oct 17 | Beat East Tennessee State, 16-13 |
| Sat, Oct 26 | Lost @ Wofford, 35-34 OT |
| Sat, Nov 2 | Lost to Furman, 35-20 |
| Sat, Nov 9 | Beat Samford, 35-27 |
| Sat, Nov 16 | Beat The Citadel, 34-33 |
| Sat, Nov 23 | Lost to VMI, 31-24 |
Florida Gators
Current record: 8-2 (5-2), 2nd in the SEC East
| Sat, Aug 24 | Beat Miami, 24-20 |
| Sat, Sep 7 | Beat UT Martin, 45-0 |
| Sat, Sep 14 | Beat Kentucky, 29-21 |
| Sat, Sep 21 | Beat Tennessee, 34-3 |
| Sat, Sep 28 | Beat Towson, 38-0 |
| Sat, Oct 5 | Beat No. 7 Auburn, 24-13 |
| Sat, Oct 12 | Lost @ No. 5 LSU, 42-28 |
| Sat, Oct 19 | Beat South Carolina, 38-27 |
| Sat, Nov 2 | Lost to No. 8 Georgia, 24-17 |
| Sat, Nov 9 | Beat Vanderbilt, 56-0 |
| Sat, Nov 16 | Beat Missouri, 23-6 |
| Sat, Nov 30 | vs Florida State |
Georgia Bulldogs
Current record: 8-1 (5-1), 1st in the SEC East
| Sat, Aug 31 | Beat Vanderbilt, 30-6 |
| Sat, Sep 7 | Beat Murray State, 63-17 |
| Sat, Sep 14 | Beat Arkansas State, 55-0 |
| Sat, Sep 21 | Beat No. 7 Notre Dame, 23-17 |
| Sat, Oct 5 | Beat Tennessee, 43-14 |
| Sat, Oct 12 | Lost to South Carolina, 20-17 2OT |
| Sat, Oct 19 | Beat Kentucky, 21-0 |
| Sat, Nov 2 | Beat No. 6 Florida, 24-17 |
| Sat, Nov 9 | Beat Missouri, 27-0 |
| Sat, Nov 16 | Beat No. 12 Auburn, 21-14 |
| Sat, Nov 23 | Beat Texas A&M, 19-13 |
| Sat, Nov 30 | @ Georgia Tech |
Mississippi State Bulldogs
Current record: 4-5 (2-4), 5th in the SEC West
| Sat, Aug 31 | Beat Louisiana, 38-28 |
| Sat, Sep 7 | Beat Southern Mississippi, 38-15 |
| Sat, Sep 14 | Lost to Kansas State, 31-24 |
| Sat, Sep 21 | Beat Kentucky, 28-13 |
| Sat, Sep 28 | Lost @ No. 7 Auburn, 56-23 |
| Sat, Oct 12 | Lost @ Tennessee, 20-10 |
| Sat, Oct 19 | Lost to No. 2 LSU |
| Sat, Oct 26 | Lost @ Texas A&M, 49-30 |
| Sat, Nov 2 | Beat Arkansas, 54-24 |
| Sat, Nov 16 | Lost to No. 5 Alabama, 38-7 |
| Sat, Nov 23 | Beat Abilene Christian, 45-7 |
| Thu, Nov 28 | vs Ole Miss |
Off this week.
Alabama Crimson Tide
Current record: 8-1 (5-1), 2nd in the SEC West
| Sat, Aug 31 | Beat Duke, 42-3 |
| Sat, Sep 7 | Beat New Mexico State, 62-10 |
| Sat, Sep 14 | Beat South Carolina, 47-23 |
| Sat, Sep 21 | Beat Southern Miss, 49-7 |
| Sat, Sep 28 | Beat Ole Miss, 59-31 |
| Sat, Oct 12 | Beat No. 24 Texas A&M, 47-28 |
| Sat, Oct 19 | Beat Tennessee, 35-13 |
| Sat, Oct 26 | Beat Arkansas, 48-7 |
| Sat, Nov 9 | Lost to No. 2 LSU, 46-41 |
| Sat, Nov 16 | Beat Mississippi State, 38-7 |
| Sat, Nov 23 | Beat Western Carolina, 66-3 |
| Sat, Nov 30 | @ No. 11 Auburn |
This week’s Alabama-LSU game was great fun. LSU looked really, really good, although Alabama wasn’t really the same team with a hobbled Tua at quarterback. The rest of the team, too, just looked discombobulated, which was really uncharacteristic for the Tide.
South Carolina Gamecocks
Current record: 4-6 (3-4), 4th in the SEC East
| Sat, Aug 31 | Lost to North Carolina, 24-20 |
| Sat, Sep 7 | Beat Charleston Southern, 72-10 |
| Sat, Sep 14 | Lost to No. 2 Alabama, 47-23 |
| Sat, Sep 21 | Lost @ Missouri, 34-14 |
| Sat, Sep 28 | Beat Kentucky, 24-7 |
| Sat, Oct 12 | Beat No. 3 Georgia, 20-17 2OT |
| Sat, Oct 19 | Lost to No. 9 Florida, 38-27 |
| Sat, Oct 26 | Lost @ Tennessee, 41-21 |
| Sat, Nov 2 | Beat Vanderbilt, 24-7 |
| Sat, Nov 9 | Lost to Appalachian State, 20-15 |
| Sat, Nov 16 | Lost @ Texas A&M, 30-6 |
| Sat, Nov 30 | vs 4 Clemson |
The SPM saw this one coming, but I didn’t really believe it until App. State was up late. The game was pretty even, but the Mountaineers scored a valuable touchdown via pick six, and South Carolina missed a wide open receiver in the end zone late, which would have put them ahead.
UAB Blazers
Current record: 6-3 (3-2), 3rd in C-USA West
| Thu, Aug 29 | Beat Alabama State, 24-19 |
| Sat, Sep 7 | Beat Akron, 31-20 |
| Sat, Sep 21 | Beat South Alabama, 35-3 |
| Sat, Sep 28 | Lost @ Western Kentucky, 20-13 |
| Sat, Oct 5 | Beat Rice, 35-20 |
| Sat, Oct 12 | Beat UTSA, 33-14 |
| Sat, Oct 19 | Beat Old Dominion, 38-14 |
| Sat, Nov 2 | Lost @ Tennessee, 30-7 |
| Sat, Nov 9 | Lost @ Southern Miss, 37-2 |
| Sat, Nov 16 | Beat UTEP, 37-10 |
| Sat, Nov 23 | Beat Louisiana Tech, 20-14 |
| Sat, Nov 30 | @ North Texas |
That’s right. UAB scored 2 points this week against Southern Miss.
Kentucky Wildcats
Current record: 4-5 (2-5), 6th in the SEC East
| Sat, Aug 31 | Beat Toledo, 38-24 |
| Sat, Sep 7 | Beat Eastern Michigan, 38-17 |
| Sat, Sep 14 | Lost to No. 8 Florida, 29-21 |
| Sat, Sep 21 | Lost @ Mississippi State, 28-13 |
| Sat, Sep 28 | Lost @ South Carolina, 24-7 |
| Sat, Oct 12 | Beat Arkansas, 24-20 |
| Sat, Oct 19 | Lost to No. 10 Georgia, 21-0 |
| Sat, Oct 26 | Beat Missouri, 29-7 |
| Sat, Nov 9 | Lost to Tennessee, 17-13 |
| Sat, Nov 16 | Beat Vanderbilt, 38-14 |
| Sat, Nov 23 | Beat UT Martin, 50-7 |
| Sat, Nov 30 | vs Louisville |
What about you? Where are your expectations for the Vols now?
6.5 this week
Screw Mizzou we’re going 7-5 this year
I’m at 6.2. Nevermind anything I said about feeling uncomfortable putting Vandy at like 80%. Those dudes are bad. That’s a W.
6.1, getting detroyed by mizzou in the past still makes me nervous about going to columbia
I’m…on the optimistic side now?
Up to 6.3. Mizzou, even with Kelly Bryant, feels like just under a coin flip (45%) and Vandy is awful. Like really awful. 85% there.
July 25, 2019 (pre-season): 5.96
August 26, 2019 (after “Week Zero”): 5.92
September 3, 2019 (post-Georgia St.): 3.86
September 9, 2019 (post-BYU): 3.09
September 16, 2019 (post-Chattanooga): 3.61
September 24, 2019 (post-Florida): 2.71
September 30, 2019 (post open date): 2.61
October 10, 2019 (post-Georgia): 2.76
October 14, 2019 (post-Mississippi St.): 3.87
October 21, 2019 (post-Alabama): 4.00
October 29, 2019 (post-South Carolina): 5.35
November 4, 2019 (post-UAB): 5.70
November 11, 2019 (post-Kentucky): 6.35
Broken down like so: @Mizzou: 50%, Vandy 85%.