Use the form below to calculate your expected win total for the rest of the season.
The GRT Expected Win Total Machine
About the Vols: It was a terrible start for the good guys against Kentucky, but they eventually got it figured out. And it was a bit hairy in the end, but Guarantano got just enough points and the defense got just enough stops to put another W on the board. This bodes well for the team the rest of the way.
About the remaining opponents: Florida made Vandy look even worse, and Georgia appeared to do the same thing against Missouri, although the Tigers were missing Kelly Bryant at quarterback and their leading receiver. I’m still reserving judgment on Missouri for now because of that.
A slight bump for the Vols, Vandy looks worse, Missouri who knows? I now have an expected win total of . . .
5.9 6.4 (thanks to Will, who pointed out on the podcast that that 5.9 wasn’t right. Lazy cut and paste job.) Same as last week. If things change for the better (for the Vols) with Missouri, that number will jump. A win against the Tigers will not only change that number from 60 to 100, it may result in me increasing my Vandy number up from 80. Basically, beat Missouri in two weeks, and I’ll be back to over my preseason expectations, and feeling better about rounding up to boot.
Here’s how I’ve tracked this season:
- Preseason: 6.55
- After Week 0: 6.6
- After Week 1: 2.87
- After Week 2: 2.37
- After Week 3: 3.65
- After Week 4: 2.9
- After Week 5: 3.25
- After Week 6: 3.85
- After Week 7: 4.4
- After Week 8: 4.7
- After Week 9: 5.6
- After Week 10: 5.9
- After Week 11:
Details: I kept Missouri at 60% and dropped Vanderbilt to 80%.
Here’s a table with my expectations this week:
Tennessee Volunteers currently
Current record: 5-5 (3-3), 3rd in the SEC East
The Vols’ future opponents
Current record: 5-4 (2-3), 4th in the SEC East
This one’s going to depend on whether Kelly Bryant plays. Without him (and leading receiver Johnathon Johnson) this week against Georgia, they scored zero points. Two different quarterbacks managed only 148 yards passing, and the team added only 50 yards on the ground.
Current record: 2-7 (1-5), 7th in the SEC East
Yikes, Vandy. A total of 77 yards passing and 51 yards rushing. They gave up 410 yards passing and 150 rushing.
The Vols’ past opponents
Georgia State Panthers
Current record: 6-3 (3-2), 2nd in the Sun Belt East
Current record: 5-4
Current record: 5-5 (4-2), 3rd in the Southern Conference
Current record: 8-2 (5-2), 2nd in the SEC East
Current record: 8-1 (5-1), 1st in the SEC East
Mississippi State Bulldogs
Current record: 4-5 (2-4), 5th in the SEC West
Off this week.
Alabama Crimson Tide
Current record: 8-1 (5-1), 2nd in the SEC West
This week’s Alabama-LSU game was great fun. LSU looked really, really good, although Alabama wasn’t really the same team with a hobbled Tua at quarterback. The rest of the team, too, just looked discombobulated, which was really uncharacteristic for the Tide.
South Carolina Gamecocks
Current record: 4-6 (3-4), 4th in the SEC East
The SPM saw this one coming, but I didn’t really believe it until App. State was up late. The game was pretty even, but the Mountaineers scored a valuable touchdown via pick six, and South Carolina missed a wide open receiver in the end zone late, which would have put them ahead.
Current record: 6-3 (3-2), 3rd in C-USA West
That’s right. UAB scored 2 points this week against Southern Miss.
Current record: 4-5 (2-5), 6th in the SEC East
What about you? Where are your expectations for the Vols now?