Author Archives: Will Shelton

We’re less attuned to it at number one, but teams hovering around the top five taking a loss continues to be a big deal. We’re focused on staying atop the AP poll right now, but the real chase is for the four number one seeds (and, if Tennessee continues to play well, the hunt for the number one overall seed and the Columbia/Louisville road to the Final Four). This weekend it was #6 Michigan State, dropped by 10 at Purdue.

This is oversimplification and using too much football logic for basketball, but until everyone has at least four losses or so, it’s helpful to look at things this way:

• One-Loss Teams: Tennessee, Virginia, Michigan (plus Nevada and Houston)
• Two-Loss Teams: Duke, Gonzaga (plus Buffalo)
• Three-Loss Teams: Michigan State, Virginia Tech, Kentucky, LSU, Cincinnati, Marquette (plus five mid-majors)

Here are the number one seeds from the last three years:

The average one seed in the last three years has 4.67 losses, an even five if you remove Gonzaga from the equation. 2016 and beyond is a good measure, because it includes all the major conference expansion, and keeps an anomaly from 2015 out of the equation, when all four one seeds had nine total losses. Remember, these numbers include conference tournaments, when most teams will take an additional loss.

As we turn toward February, six teams continue to separate themselves from the pack: Duke, Gonzaga, Michigan, Michigan State, Tennessee, and Virginia. There’s some distance between these six (and Virginia and everyone else) in KenPom. They’re the top six teams in the polls and the Bracket Matrix. Three blue bloods – Kansas, Kentucky, and North Carolina – could still get hot and make their way onto the one line, but are a step behind for now. Kentucky has the best chance there, with only three losses to four for Kansas and UNC, head-to-head wins over both, and two shots at the number one team in the nation. But KenPom still currently projects all of the top six to go to their conference tournaments with between three and five losses.

Long way to go, and the Vols can only handle the business in front of them. Tennessee doesn’t need any help to climb the polls, but any time a team like Michigan State loses, it helps them on Selection Sunday.

Hopefully not the last time we’re in Columbia

When league play began, Tennessee’s schedule looked solid: you always know what you’re getting into with Kentucky, the Gators were back in a home-and-home, and Vanderbilt & Missouri were on the bubble. South Carolina looked like an obvious rebuild, and maybe the worst team in the conference.

Instead, Vanderbilt and South Carolina have switched places: the Commodores have lost seven in a row, and the Gamecocks are 5-1 in league play.

These guys are battle tested, having faced Michigan and Virginia (back-to-back!) in the non-conference. And they didn’t get to 5-1 in the SEC because of their schedule: the Gamecocks have beaten Florida, Mississippi State, and Auburn.

What’s been the difference for South Carolina in January opposed to their 5-7 start in the non-conference? For one, opponents cooled off from the arc a little: after giving up 100-of-268 (37.3%) from three in non-conference play, the Gamecocks are allowing just 47-of-144 (32.6%) in league play. South Carolina has also been the victim of some really good performances at the free throw line (via Sports Reference):

• Stony Brook 19-of-23 (82.6%), Carolina lost by 2
• Providence 28-of-34 (82.4%), Carolina lost by 9
• LSU 32-of-35 (91.4%), Carolina lost by 22, but still, 32-of-35!
• Oklahoma State 23-of-29 (79.3%), Carolina lost by 4

As you can see, that’s a lot of free throw attempts. This may not be what you associate with a Frank Martin team, but South Carolina will get up and go: 26th in tempo overall, and fastest in the SEC in average offensive possession length. As a result, they foul a lot and get fouled a lot.

Tennessee put Lamonte Turner in the starting lineup against West Virginia; he clearly liked it with a sizzling 8-of-10 from the field and 23 points in 33 minutes. Yves Pons scaled back to only 10 minutes. So right now Tennessee is giving six players 25-32 minutes, basically playing a primary lineup with Kyle Alexander and the three guard crunch-time lineup from last year. I haven’t seen the Vols look fatigued yet, which is something worth keeping an eye on. If you’re in good enough shape for a glorified six-man rotation, the biggest problem obviously becomes foul trouble. And that we’ve seen plenty of this season.

Any given game could come down to what the Vols get from Yves Pons and John Fulkerson in extended minutes if someone else is in foul trouble. That may seem like a minor thing to worry about now, but it becomes a big worry if it happens in the tournament. In our own history, we’ve seen Tennessee on the other side of beating an elite team playing a short bench: the Vols don’t have anyone as talented as Evan Turner, but Tennessee beat that Ohio State team by getting more from their 10-man rotation than Ohio State got from its glorified six. In an up-tempo game with a Gamecock team prone to foul and get fouled, we might get another look at how the Vols function when one or more of those top six have to stay off the floor for longer periods of time. File it away.

South Carolina, of course, is a lot of Chris Silva – 13.1 points and 6.9 rebounds in only 24.7 minutes, because he too can’t stay out of foul trouble – but freshman A.J. Lawson is giving them quite a bit as well with 13.2 points. As a freshman playing fast, his shot selection is sometimes an issue (averaging more than five threes a game despite shooting 29.9% from the arc). But we’ve already seen Tennessee catch a cold-shooting team on a hot night.

Despite the 5-1 start, South Carolina is a very long way from the bubble if the NET ratings work at all the same way as RPI. The Gamecocks are currently 111th in NET. Best way to climb the ladder, of course, is beat the number one team in the country. As we enter week two atop the polls, the Vols should have a better idea of what kind of energy and performance they’ll get from every opponent, especially on the road. This team should be playing with more confidence than Vanderbilt and West Virginia as well. KenPom likes the Vols by a dozen, but the Vegas line is only -8.5.

Earlier start tonight: 6:30 PM on the SEC Network. Go Vols.

After three consecutive wins for the Big 12 from 2014-16 (and I’m sure a sense of, “Why are we doing this?” from their league), the SEC forged a tie in 2017 and won this event 6-4 last season. The bad news: three of the SEC’s six ranked teams – #16 Auburn, #22 Mississippi State, and red-hot #25 LSU – will not participate this year. For reasons beyond me, former Big 12 member Missouri has sat out four years in a row.

The Vols sat out the first year in 2014, but are 3-1 since then: wins over Kansas State in Knoxville for Donnie Tyndall in 2015 and Rick Barnes in 2017, a loss at TCU in Barnes’ first year, and a beat down of Iowa State in Ames last season. Those teams aren’t the names you get excited about playing in this thing. We thought this year would change that…but West Virginia hasn’t exactly held up their end of the bargain.

But first, let’s talk about Tennessee’s defense.

Good Isn’t Good Enough When You’re #1

If we’re trying to win the whole thing, which I’m pretty sure we are when atop the polls, I keep coming back to something I first saw on Villanova’s SB Nation blog last February: with the exception of 7-seed champion UConn in 2014, every national champion in the KenPom era (2002-present) has finished the year in the Top 20 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Tennessee flirted with this for much of last season, ultimately finishing sixth in defense and 36th in offense. And the Vols were there for much of the early portion of this season, but are currently second in offense and 34th in defense.

The change on the offensive end has been tremendous, was so before Grant Williams scored 43 the other night, and continues to deserve press and praise. Anyone who says they envisioned Tennessee turning into that kind of offensive threat while shooting 35.7% from the arc is a liar.

It seems strange to type, “Why has the defense gotten worse?” After all, it’s hard to think in terms of “worse” when you’re still 34th nationally in defensive efficiency and 30th in effective field goal percentage allowed. But what is most notably different right now?

• Three-Point Shooting: throw out Georgia’s 1-for-20 performance in the league opener; the other five conference games rank in the top seven in percentage allowed beyond the arc. The other two are then-#1 Gonzaga and now-#23 Louisville. Vanderbilt’s 47.6% was a season-high, but it doesn’t stand alone: put the Commodores in there with Missouri, Florida, Arkansas, and Alabama, and the Vols have allowed 50-of-127 (39.3%) from three in the last five games. That’s basically 10-of-25 per night. Will Warren has a good thread on the number of catch-and-shoot threes the Vols are allowing.
• Trading Steals for Blocks: if you’re looking for the thing Tennessee is very best at, it’s still shot-blocking: 4.6% of Tennessee’s attempts get blocked, best in the nation, and the Vols send back 15.7% of opponent attempts, seventh nationally. That’s impressive, and fits the makeup of this team. I have no idea if this is happening on purpose or not, but being so good at the rim is correlating with a drop in efficiency in creating steals. Last year the Vols averaged 6.4 steals per game and took it away on 9.4% of opponent possessions, 104th nationally. This year the Vols average 5.8 steals per game despite playing at a faster pace, taking it away on 7.9% of opponent possessions, 255th nationally. Again: this is where the Vols miss James Daniel most. Is fatigue an issue here as well? It doesn’t seem that way watching games, but Jordan Bone is averaging 32 minutes after just 23 last year, and Lamonte Turner may still be playing his way back to 100% on both ends of the floor. The Vols have to get more from whoever is on opposing guards off the dribble.

The best offenses in the SEC belong, for the most part, to the best teams in the league. That means Tennessee’s defense won’t see a bunch of great offenses until the much-talked-about last three weeks of the season. Until then, the best offense they’ll face is the one coming here Saturday.

Avenge the Belk Kickoff!

West Virginia made three Sweet 16’s in the last four years, bounced by a one seed each time. They lost their two leading scorers to graduation, plus freshman Teddy Allen to transfer. Then they lost their leading returning scorer, center Sagaba Konate, to a knee injury in December; he could return this season, but no signs point to this weekend. In his absence 6’10” freshman Derek Culver has stepped in, and currently leads the Big 12 in defensive rebounding percentage.

If Tennessee is looking to improve defensively, here’s a good place to start: West Virginia has 249 assists to 289 turnovers this year. That’s more than 15 turnovers per game; they give it away on 21.3% of possessions and are especially vulnerable via steal, 341st nationally in steal percentage allowed (11.4% of possessions). Without Konate, 6’0″ guard James Bolden is the leading scorer at 12.8 per game, with 2.6 assists to 2.2 turnovers.

What West Virginia does well: get on the offensive glass (10th nationally), and get to the line (14th nationally). They will routinely run a 6’8″+ front line out there; 6’8″ senior Esa Ahmad is their best at getting to the stripe.

Their profile is not that different than Vanderbilt’s: injury derailed their hopes, mostly competitive but always on the wrong end in conference play. The Mountaineers lost to Texas Tech by three, at Texas by seven, at Kansas State by two and Oklahoma State by eight to open Big 12 play. Then they were blown out by 31 at TCU. But just when you wanted to write them off…they beat Kansas, something Tennessee did not do, 65-64 in Morgantown.

So, yes, KenPom likes the Vols by 18. That’s the mantle Tennessee has earned, even after the last two near-misses. We don’t want to get into that thing where we criticize every performance that isn’t a 20-point blowout just because we’re number one; there was plenty to enjoy from that win over Vanderbilt. Hopefully we find more of the same tomorrow.

Here’s the full schedule for the SEC/Big 12 Challenge:

• #24 Iowa State at #20 Ole Miss – 12:00 PM – ESPN
• Florida at TCU – 12:00 PM – ESPN2
• Alabama at Baylor – 12:00 PM – ESPNU
• Kansas State at Texas A&M – 2:00 PM – ESPN
• Texas at Georgia – 2:00 PM – ESPN2
• South Carolina at Oklahoma State – 2:00 PM – ESPNU
• West Virginia at #1 Tennessee – 4:00 PM – ESPN
• Vanderbilt at Oklahoma – 4:00 PM – ESPN2
• #9 Kansas at #8 Kentucky – 6:00 PM – ESPN
• Arkansas at #14 Texas Tech – 6:00 PM – ESPN2

This team wants to make sure you keep the media guide handy.

When Admiral Schofield put 30 on #1 Gonzaga, we called it the best performance of the post-Chris Lofton era. We mentioned Grant Williams’ 37 points in Memorial Gymnasium last season – the most for any Vol since Ron Slay’s 38 in 2003 – as a footnote. In his two games against Vanderbilt last year, Williams attempted 15 free throws each time.

I feel like any attempt to say something clever about what happened tonight is a disservice to its greatness. Here it is:

Grant Williams: 10-of-15 FG, 23-of-23 FT, 43 points, 8 rebounds, 4 blocks.

The school record for points at Tennessee is 51 by Tony White vs Auburn in 1987. White also had 49 against Florida State the same year. Ron Widby scored 50 against LSU in 1967. Carl Widseth scored 47 against Auburn in 1956.

Next on the list is 43 points, which is the career high of Allan Houston, Reggie Johnson, Bernard King, Ernie Grunfeld…and now, Grant Williams.

And #1 Tennessee beat Vanderbilt 88-83 in overtime.

Teams Won’t Lay Down For Tennessee

The Vols jumped Alabama 16-4 in the first eight minutes, Vanderbilt 15-2 in the first five minutes. Perhaps you, like me, were kicking back to enjoy another beat down.

It didn’t happen Saturday, and certainly didn’t happen tonight. Credit Vanderbilt; Alabama is on the bubble, but the Commodores were 0-5 in SEC play and staring swiftly down the barrel of 0-6 after those first five minutes. But what a difference being hot from three makes.

Vanderbilt was shooting 33% on the year from the arc coming in. In SEC play:

• 6-of-20 (30%) vs Ole Miss
• 6-of-25 (24%) at Georgia
• 7-of-25 (28%) at Kentucky
• 7-of-21 (33%) vs South Carolina
• 5-of-19 (26%) vs Mississippi State

Tonight: 10-of-21 (48%). Aaron Nesmith, Saben Lee, Matt Ryan, and Joe Toye went 10-of-18.

It made a huge difference, and the Vols had no answer on the other end: 5-of-20 (25%) from the arc, including 0-for-6 from Admiral Schofield. It’s the same percentage the Vols shot against Alabama. Yet the Vols walked away winners both times.

There was some reffin’ going on in both games, no doubt. Tennessee benefitted from a lightning-fast travel call on John Petty against Bama, and a hook-but-maybe-not-a-hold, letter-of-the-law flagrant foul in the final minutes of regulation tonight. But if you’re looking for why Tennessee won, look to the guy who knocked down both those free throws, then immediately scored on the ensuing inbounds.

Also, before that sequence, with the Vols down five and in need of a spark, this happened:

When Bone threw that ball, I swear I thought it was meant for Alexander. I’m glad we won to preserve a number one ranking, and I’m glad for Williams’ 43 points. But also, this dunk could not happen in a game Tennessee lost.

This game got bananas in the final minute, then again in overtime. But with the game on the line after a Saben Lee free throw put Vandy up one with 20 seconds to play, Grant Williams had one more and-one in him, then a great close out in the corner without fouling on a Vanderbilt three.

Vanderbilt shot way above their average, to their credit, and found ways to disrupt what Tennessee wanted to do. The Vols got nothing from Schofield offensively and stayed cold from the arc.

But Grant Williams was enough.

He scored all of Tennessee’s points in overtime (10) until Jordan Bone’s free throws with six seconds left. In the last ten minutes of regulation, he scored all of Tennessee’s points except Bowden’s dunk and Schofield’s runner. That’s 27 of Tennessee’s last 33 points in 15 minutes of game time.

That dude is going in the rafters. Tennessee plays on as number one.

If you’re looking for the best single performance from the last Tennessee team to reach number one, may I suggest the first meeting between the Vols and Commodores.

#6 Tennessee and #16 Vanderbilt met in Knoxville on January 17, 2008, more than a month before the Vols would eventually go to number one. The win that got them there was of obvious merit, beating #1 Memphis 66-62. But if you really wanted to see what the 2008 Vols could do, look to that first Vanderbilt game: an 80-60 blowout, featuring 18 points and 18 rebounds from Wayne Chism. It was a level-up game for #4, more proof he could also be the lead dog on a team with plenty of alpha in Chris Lofton, JaJuan Smith, and Tyler Smith (who added 14 and 9 just for good measure). Vanderbilt shot 3-of-21 from the arc, missed 10 free throws, and turned it over 22 times.

All of that made it easy to forget they were still a Top 20 team when we ran into them the second time around.

The Vols won at Memphis in a 9:00 PM Saturday night tip, then played at #18 Vanderbilt in a 9:00 PM Tuesday tip. The Commodores raced to a 23-9 lead, but Tennessee got it back within three at halftime. The shooting made the longest memories – 32 points from Shan Foster, 25 from Chris Lofton – but going back through the box score and recap at ESPN.com, you find 51 total fouls and 69 total free throw attempts. Down the stretch, Tennessee could not defend without fouling, allowing Vanderbilt to always stay two possessions ahead. The Commodores won 72-69, chasing Tennessee off the number one ranking and, more costly, eventually off the number one seed line.

That Vanderbilt team was a four seed in the NCAA Tournament, their 26 wins the most in Kevin Stallings’ 17 years in Nashville. And in the tournament…they lost to Siena in the first round by 21.

Still: this Vanderbilt team is not that Vanderbilt team.

This Vanderbilt Team

Everything has to start with Darius Garland. The five-star freshman point guard was the 14th-highest rated player in the nation coming in from 247, and the second point guard behind Kentucky’s Ashton Hagans (who is playing like it right now). He injured his knee in the fifth game of the year and was lost for the season. The most recent NBA mock draft I can find still has him going seventh overall. It’s a huge loss.

Whatever momentum Vanderbilt gained by an 81-65 win over Arizona State on December 17 has evaporated in an 0-5 start to league play. They lost to Ole Miss by 10, Georgia by 19, Kentucky by nine, South Carolina by three, and Mississippi State by 16. In conference games the ‘Dores rank 13th in offensive efficiency and 11th in defensive efficiency (via KenPom); Tennessee is number one in both.

By the way, is anyone winning the Kevin Stallings-Vanderbilt divorce? Bryce Drew’s first team was the first in history to earn an at-large bid with 15 losses, then lost an 8-9 game to Northwestern by two points. That team graduated Luke Kornet, but brought back Matthew Fisher-Davis, Riley LaChance, and Jeff Roberson for their senior seasons in 2018. Fisher-Davis was lost for the year in mid-January, but Vandy was already 6-11 (1-4) at the time. They finished 12-20 (6-12). His 2018 recruiting class was ranked 13th nationally, but now without Garland they’re headed toward another sub-.500 year. Stallings, of course, went 16-17 (4-14) then 8-24 (0-18) at Pitt and was done.

Also, Vanderbilt’s luck ratings in KenPom since 2015: 345, 346, 292, 336, and currently 316.

If you want to stay on the right side of luck tonight, don’t put this team on the line. The Commodores are ninth in the nation in free throw rate. Their particular strengths here are Saben Lee, who runs the point in Garland’s absence, and Simi Shittu, an even-higher-rated 6’10” freshman who sees the ball a ton.

Vandy defends the three well in conference play, and doesn’t turn it over a ton. An early whistle going against the Vols is the quickest way the Commodores stay in this game. As Tennessee seeks to improve its defense overall, defending without fouling is a good place to start: the Vols are 226th nationally in opponent free throw rate.

But if it doesn’t happen at the line, it’s tough to see it happening for Vanderbilt. They’re giving up 55.7% from inside the arc in league play, and Tennessee’s offense has become a monster in that department. And last year Grant Williams had 37 in Nashville and 18 more in Knoxville, and attempted 15 free throws in each game. They had no answer for him last year, and I’m not sure one has presented itself this year. Vanderbilt should be a welcome match-up for Williams after facing Alabama.

Anybody can get up to play the number one team in the nation, and Vanderbilt can always get up to play Tennessee. And we won’t know exactly how the Vols will play with that #1 next to their name until we see it. But when you’re 0-5 in league play, you can also catch a case of the oh-no’s real quick. The 2008 Vols peaked just before Nashville. Let’s hope the 2019 version is just getting started.

7:00 PM ET, ESPN2. Go Vols.

Almost eight years ago, I sat in a hotel room in Lexington, KY and wrote this:

This marriage is worth saving. We can survive without each other, but it will not be the same. And I do not believe that Bruce Pearl and Tennessee Basketball will ever be as good apart as we are together.

Save Bruce Pearl – Rocky Top Talk, March 18, 2011

Do this for any length of time, and you get to be wrong. And sometimes, you get to be wrong in ways that delight you.

With Tennessee going to number one, I’ve thought about those last few days at the end of Pearl’s tenure, when it felt like we were giving away something we wouldn’t get back. And I’ve also thought about those few days in November of 2017, when a basketball team picked to finish 13th in the SEC upset #18 Purdue in the Bahamas, four days before the football team almost hired Greg Schiano. In a relatively short period of time, we’ve experienced the worst of football – and the potential to stay there had things gone any number of ways with the head coach and athletic director hires – and now the very best of basketball.

Living at the extremes of football and basketball is another reminder of why we do this as fans: for all the moments along the journey, not just the peaks.

I don’t know how many times we’ve thought we were at rock bottom in football in the last decade. Nothing would be harder than saying goodbye to Fulmer. Nothing could be worse than losing your head coach in the middle of the night in January. Whoever followed Dooley would surely help the program ascend. Whoever we hired next would be more well-received than Butch. It can always get worse.

And I do know what Tennessee basketball achieved under Pearl was special, in a way that seemed impossible to duplicate. Yet here we are, back at the top of the polls and playing even better than the 2008 team, at least according to KenPom. It can always get better.

Follow the Vols (or any team) long enough, and you get the relative highs and lows. The whole of it brings us back, the relationship itself. That relationship hasn’t been boring the last ten years, in either sport. We’ve all had our moments, but we’re still here…and right now, here to the tune of 21,000+ at Thompson-Boling for Tennessee Tech, Georgia, and Alabama, with a multitude of sellouts to come.

I don’t know where this is going, or how far. Can the Vols stay healthy? Hungry? As good as we are, KenPom still projects three losses left in the regular season, even before we try to slay a 40-year dragon in the SEC Tournament. We’ve only made the Elite Eight once. We’ve never made the Final Four.

I only know it’s going to Vanderbilt on Wednesday night. And I know we’ll keep following.

It’s great. To be.

Tennessee jumped to a 16-4 lead in the first eight minutes, then stretched it out to 44-29 with a minute to play before halftime; a Bama three made the Vol lead a dozen at the break. Jim Chaney and Tee Martin were introduced to the crowd. No. 2 Michigan was already down. A good day in progress.

The first half left us with comparisons that can still make you a little uncomfortable. The Vols shut down everything Bama wanted to do at the rim, affecting shots the way we’re used to seeing it happen to our own when playing Kentucky. Alabama, a solid bubble team, just wasn’t on Tennessee’s level; good game, good effort, etc., the Vols would roll to their 12th straight victory.

In three minutes and 23 seconds, Alabama lit that script on fire.

Here’s how ESPN’s play-by-play data shows the start of the second half:

• Grant Williams miss
• John Petty three
• Admiral Schofield miss
• John Petty two
• Jordan Bone miss, offensive rebound, Admiral Schofield miss
• John Petty three
• Grant Williams miss
• Herbert Jones miss
• Kyle Alexander miss
• Kira Lewis three
• John Petty steal
• Herbert Jones layup, Bama leads 45-44

The Tide didn’t go away, and Petty stayed hot for nearly seven more minutes. With 9:52 to play, he splashed his sixth three. Alabama led 59-58. Petty had 30 points.

He didn’t score again. He attempted only two more shots.

Some of that was Jordan Bowden; the Vols tried Bowden, then Lamonte Turner, then went back to Bowden on Petty. Donta Hall’s presence (16 points, 12 rebounds) meant extended action from Kyle Alexander, preventing the Vols from using their Bone-Bowden-Turner-Williams-Schofield lineup. The Vols instead tried to chase down an Alabama team taking 26 threes with only two true guards on the floor for most of the game.

And some of that was Alabama, with that combination of open looks and perhaps a belief that Petty’s fire could spread. Petty and Kira Lewis were 9-of-16 from the arc. The rest of the team was 1-of-10. Four of those ten attempts came in the last ten minutes, when Petty couldn’t get a look.

But all of that shouldn’t have mattered. Alabama wins this game if it shoots even a little bit better than 8-of-18 at the free throw line. Tennessee, which has looked incredibly unbeatable for most of the year, looked human today.

Beatable, but not beaten.

The Vols got an and-one from Schofield with 10:14 to play, then went almost seven minutes without making another shot. Alabama’s size and physicality were bothersome for Grant Williams, who needed 17 shots to score 21 points. Lots of jump shots that went down in the first half didn’t in the second, and the Vols shot just 3-of-12 (25%) from the arc.

But the Vols helped put Alabama in drought conditions as well, getting only one field goal from a dunk at 9:25 to a layup at 3:15. This wasn’t Tennessee’s best defensive effort, but it was good enough to win. Meanwhile a jumper by Jordan Bowden took the lid off, and the Vols hit four shots in the final four minutes, including two from a previously-cold Admiral Schofield.

The end of the game is getting plenty of press: a quick travel call on Petty with three seconds left and the Vols up one. In super slow-mo it looks right, though I get how frustrating it would be to have that go against you in real time. Grant Williams fouled out on the previous possession, again a victim of a couple of iffy offensive fouls (if not the last one, definitely the one before). This is no doubt a tough loss for Alabama.

It was a toughness win for Tennessee, who could still go to number one on Monday depending on how voters feel about the outcome of Duke-Virginia. But Barnes will get to sing some of the same song from the second half against Arkansas: those 20 minutes will get you beat in March, and these 20 minutes get you beat today if Alabama hits their free throws.

We already know the Vols can play with the nation’s best from Kansas and Gonzaga. I don’t know how many other teams will present the same combination of on-fire guards and a tough match-up inside like Hall that prevents Tennessee from playing last season’s crunch time lineup. But the Vols get to learn from victory instead of defeat.

So maybe we should start here with these previews: Tennessee is a 15-point favorite over Alabama in KenPom, 16.7 in ESPN’s BPI. That’s the bar this team has set for itself. So we’ll spend a few words here talking about Alabama – 59th in KenPom, next four out in the Bracket Matrix – but right now the Vols are eating bubble teams for breakfast, lunch, and dinner.

It’s tough to find the right comparison for this team. Their SEC contemporaries in year-end KenPom going back are Final Four caliber squads from Florida and Kentucky. But until Tennessee actually achieves that goal, it will continue to feel premature to compare them someone like the Noah/Horford Gators.

And it’s tough to compare them internally, because in many ways right now this feels like the best team in school history. As they’re actively flirting with what the 2008 team did in the regular season by reaching number one, and that squad doesn’t carry an overly-heavy burden of postseason success…maybe that’s a good place to start.

The 2008 vs 2019 Vols

This comparison probably felt a little unfair in preseason, not wanting to burden this team with number one expectations. But at the midway point of the season, it feels incredibly natural.

For our younger viewers, the 2008 Vols brought almost everyone back (minus Dane Bradshaw) from a Sweet 16 squad in 2007. And they carried the same motivation of March heartbreak: less Sister Jean, more Greg Oden.

The 2008 Vols were ranked seventh in the preseason AP poll, a school record broken this year at sixth. A win on Saturday would match 2008’s 16-1 start; those Vols went to Rupp Arena and lost in their 18th game, then won eight in a row to set up the #1 vs #2 showdown with Memphis on February 23.

Bruce Pearl’s non-conference scheduling drifted more toward the high-mid-major gauntlet: the 2008 Vols didn’t play anyone as good as 2019 Kansas or Gonzaga before facing #1 Memphis, but did take down five Top 50 KenPom teams from West Virginia, Western Kentucky, Xavier, Gonzaga, and Ohio State.

The 2008 SEC schedule opened with Ole Miss, surprisingly undefeated. Tennessee won 85-83 on a Tyler Smith bucket at the rim (Pearl in the postgame: “He stuck it up their nose.”) But from there, it gets familiar: Tennessee beat South Carolina by 24, Vanderbilt by 20, then Georgia by 16 after the loss at Rupp. They weren’t all that way: half of Tennessee’s 14 SEC wins in 2008 were of the single digit variety, plus another in the first game of the SEC Tournament.

Honestly, the biggest difference between these two teams right now? Rick Barnes…who, after (in)famously losing to the Vols in 2006 and 2007, beat the 2008 Vols in November by 19 points. Almost no one remembers this game because it took place on the same day as the four overtime win at Kentucky in football to seal the SEC East. The 2008 season also ended with a 19-point loss to Louisville in the Sweet 16, a bad match-up with a ton of length.

…I can’t see the 2019 Vols losing to anyone by 19. And while there are less favorable match-ups…I’m not sure there’s a bad one right now.

In fact, in advanced stats, the only place the 2008 Vols were clearly better is turnovers: Pearl’s team forced a turnover on 24.5% of opponent possessions, 19th nationally. Barnes’ team does so on just 19.1% of opponent possessions, 175th nationally. Everything else is a push, or to the advantage of the current squad.

There’s a long way to go this year. But with a legitimate chance to get to number one this weekend, the Vols could equal their 2008 brethren…and, right now, are playing at a level beyond them in many measurable ways.

On Alabama

But, if you’re looking to come back down to earth…well, that’s what happened last time we played these guys.

Winners of six straight, including the first win at Rupp Arena since 2006, Tennessee rolled into Tuscaloosa 18-5 and in the conversation for the final one seed. Instead, Alabama led by 10 at halftime and dropped the hammer in the second half, winning 78-50. Grant Williams had 16, but the rest of the team went 11-of-46 (23.9%) from the floor.

Collin Sexton is playing for the Cavs these days, but the other two guys who beat up the Vols last year are back: John Petty is now a sophomore averaging 10.9 points per game, and Donta Hall is back for his billionth season at center. Freshman guard Kira Lewis Jr. leads this team in scoring at 14.4 per game; Texas transfer Tevin Mack adds 9.3 points in just 19.8 minutes.

Last Saturday’s 81-80 home loss to Texas A&M tarnished what was looking like a tournament resume for sure. Bama lost to Northeastern in the third game of the year, but has wins over Wichita State, Murray State, Arizona, Liberty, Penn State, and opened SEC play by beating Kentucky. The loss at LSU is nothing to hang one’s head about, as the Tigers are now 30th in KenPom. Last time out they won at Missouri by 10.

The Tide are great on the glass: 44th nationally in offensive rebounding percentage, 39th in defensive rebounding percentage. It’s a big turnaround when your last opponent was Arkansas. Donta Hall is again a beast here on both ends of the floor, though this year’s version of Tennessee shouldn’t eat seven blocked shots like last year. And in the same physical fashion, Bama excels at getting to the line: 18th nationally in free throw rate, though they shoot only 69.3% once there. Defensively they don’t try to force a lot of steals or turnovers, relying more on solid defense and eliminating second chances.

They already beat Kentucky, so arguments to use talent to simply blow past them aren’t as strong here. You also have to go back to Cuonzo Martin’s last year to find a really good performance against these guys, a 76-59 win in Tuscaloosa. Donnie Tyndall’s Vols lost 56-38, and Barnes would be 0-3 against the Tide if not for second half heroics from Lew Evans in the 2017 regular season finale, a game in which the Vols trailed by 16 points.

Tennessee famously hadn’t played well against Georgia under Barnes, then annihilated them a couple weeks ago. But this Bama team is a lot better than Georgia…which leads us back to the same place in these previews, where I find myself saying, “We should be careful with this team…” while acknowledging the Vols are 15-point favorites.

#2 Michigan travels to Wisconsin at noon (ESPN), so we’ll know in part what we’re getting into when our game tips off at 2:00 PM (ESPN2). Wins by Wisconsin, Duke over Virginia (6:00 PM ESPN), and, of course, Tennessee should get the Vols to number one. There’s a lot to play for, a lot to be excited about…and plenty to be cautious about. We owe this team a beat down.

Beat Bama.

Here’s what I wrote Monday afternoon:

Tennessee’s quest for #1 takes a backseat this week: #1 Duke and #4 Virginia play Saturday in Durham (6:00 PM ET ESPN), and the winner will almost certainly be ranked ahead of the Vols next Monday. That’s a 1 vs 2 showdown in KenPom; it’s exciting just for a game of that magnitude to be relevant to the Vols. Before we get there, Duke played Syracuse on Monday, and there’s a showdown in the Commonwealth tonight between the Cavaliers and #9 Virginia Tech in Charlottesville. Meanwhile #2 Michigan is off midweek, then travels to Wisconsin (14th KenPom) on Saturday. It’ll be interesting to see how the polls and the bracket matrix shake out after this week.

…and then Duke lost to Syracuse, and lost point guard Tre Jones to a shoulder injury.

So now, if Duke bounces back against Virginia and Michigan falls at Wisconsin? The Vols could get to number one on Monday. Tennessee already had more first-place votes than any other team but Duke. Turns out this isn’t a backseat week after all.

The Vols get the reward of a week in Knoxville after trips to Missouri and Florida last week, and will spend it with more of the bubble. Alabama comes calling Saturday, currently the first team out in the matrix. But first, Arkansas.

Last Year: The Agony & The Ecstasy

Most of Tennessee’s losses last year qualified as frustrating; that’s what happens when you win the SEC. North Carolina in the final minutes, Auburn with their bajillion offensive rebounds, the streak-busting blowout at Alabama, plus narrow defeats at Missouri and Georgia. And then there were painful losses in March: to Kentucky in the SEC Tournament finals, and of course to Sister Jean.

But the one that made me want to punch a wall was Arkansas.

Up nine with 3:53 left, a flurry of foul-outs and turnovers allowed Arkansas to get the game to overtime, where more of the same led to a 95-93 Razorback victory. The loss dropped Tennessee to 9-3, 0-1 to open league play.

The rematch, however, was Tennessee’s best game of the season.

In the SEC Tournament semifinals, the Vols shot 57% from the floor, 11-of-17 (64.7%) from the arc, and 85% from the line. Tennessee buried the Hogs 84-66, an exclamation point on a 16-3 run after starting league play 0-2.

Be careful with this team

Arkansas doesn’t look like a great team on paper at 10-5 (1-2), 55th in KenPom. Their best win is over Indiana, which has lost a little luster with the Hoosiers dropping two straight.

But the five losses? Texas by two in overtime, Western Kentucky by one, Georgia Tech by four, Florida by six, LSU by six in overtime. The Hogs are really close to looking a whole lot better.

What probably makes Arkansas fans want to punch a wall: their free throw shooting. In four of those losses:

• Texas: 13-of-24 (54.2%)
• Western Kentucky: 9-of-16 (56.3%)
• Florida: 15-of-26 (57.7%)
• LSU: 17-of-28 (60.7%)

The Hogs are literally a few free throws away from being 14-1.

Their guards really hurt us in the first meeting last year, but this team plays through Daniel Gafford. The 6’11” sophomore had 27 in the win over Indiana and just put 32 on LSU. The weakness here, as you can guess: foul him. Gafford shot 52.8% at the line last year, 58% so far this season. He’s had plenty of experience, ranking 22nd nationally in fouls drawn per 40 minutes (via KenPom). The alternative: Gafford is 102-of-155 from the field this year, 83rd nationally.

The rest of the lineup is new after those guards – Barford, Beard, and Macon – all graduated. Mason Jones continues the three-point shooting threat, New Mexico transfer Jalen Harris runs the point, and freshmen Isaiah Joe and Reggie Chaney log plenty of minutes.

It’s the Arkansas DNA you know and love – 41st nationally in tempo – with an emphasis on getting to the free throw line beyond just Gafford, despite their poor shooting there. Because the Hogs want to get up and go, they’re susceptible on the offensive glass. But they’ve also been really good at forcing turnovers, as Florida was, and teams are shooting just 29.9% from the arc against them. The free throw numbers are significant, but they don’t really beat themselves otherwise.

Tennessee, as we’ve seen, is playing at an elite level. So we can make this whole argument about the Hogs being a bubble team a few free throws away from the Top 25…and the Vols can still be favored by 15 in KenPom.

7:00 PM, ESPN2. To stay in the number one conversation even when the nation’s eyeballs are elsewhere this week? Keep winning, keep playing well.

Go Vols.

Surprise blowouts are delightful, but perhaps we forgot how much fun one of these can be too.

Florida was 22nd in overall KenPom and fifth in defensive efficiency. The Vols were favored by only a deuce. And to the finish, the Gators lived up to all of that, even if differently than we thought.

The Gators take a lot of threes…but 22 of them in the first half compared to seven attempts from inside the arc? Not sure I’ve seen that ratio against the Vols before. But…it worked. Florida splashed enough of them for a 38-35 halftime advantage, due in large part to their ability to defend well without fouling. Tennessee had just three tries at the free throw line in the first half, and still finished -7 in attempts to the Gators for the game.

Florida was good defensively…but in the end, just not quite good enough.

Tennessee answered a KeVauhgn Allen three to open the second half with an 8-0 run to take the lead. The Vols pushed the lead to five a couple of times around the ten minute mark, but Florida didn’t fold. With eight minutes to play, a wild sequence saw eight consecutive possessions end with points: each time Florida took the lead first, then the Vols immediately tied it up. And by “the Vols”, I mean Jordan Bowden: 12 straight Tennessee points, capped off with a three, a steal, and a slam to give Tennessee the lead.

The Vols held the lead into the final minute, up two. Points came easiest on this night for Grant Williams, who followed up a 23-point performance against Florida last year with 20 tonight. He got the ball near the top of the key, took a step or two…and found Admiral Schofield in the corner. And if you’re looking for a big shot this year, look no further: a three with three on the shot clock put the Vols up five with 45 seconds to play. A couple free throws and a couple steal-and-scores from there, and we got this:

Again, Florida was good. But “good” simply isn’t enough to beat Tennessee right now.

I feel like we’ve been on the other side of this game plenty of times against a top-five Kentucky or Florida squad: played hard, played well, had our chances, couldn’t finish. If you like that comparison, consider this: the Vols go to +28.60 in KenPom, fourth nationally and, insanely, second nationally in offense. Only two of John Calipari’s Kentucky teams finished a year better than +28.60. One won the title with Anthony Davis, the other was undefeated until it lost in the Final Four. Only two of Billy Donovan’s Florida teams finished a year better than that (KenPom goes back to 2002). One won the title in 2007, the other made the Elite Eight in 2013.

There’s a ton of basketball left to play, and plenty of chances for the Vols to go up or down. But right now, the Vols are playing among or above elite company in both Tennessee and recent SEC history.

A week on the road leads to a week at home: Arkansas on Tuesday, Alabama on Saturday. Kermit Davis and Ole Miss inserting themselves into the SEC title race has done nothing to change the back-ended nature of Tennessee’s schedule: the Vols will finish the season with at LSU, at Ole Miss, vs Kentucky, vs Mississippi State, at Auburn. We get the Cats twice, of course, but otherwise those are the only meetings on the calendar with the rest of that list. Florida returns to Knoxville on February 9.

Long way to go. But so far, lots of fun along the way.

Go Vols.