Tennessee jumped to a 16-4 lead in the first eight minutes, then stretched it out to 44-29 with a minute to play before halftime; a Bama three made the Vol lead a dozen at the break. Jim Chaney and Tee Martin were introduced to the crowd. No. 2 Michigan was already down. A good day in progress.
The first half left us with comparisons that can still make you a little uncomfortable. The Vols shut down everything Bama wanted to do at the rim, affecting shots the way we’re used to seeing it happen to our own when playing Kentucky. Alabama, a solid bubble team, just wasn’t on Tennessee’s level; good game, good effort, etc., the Vols would roll to their 12th straight victory.
In three minutes and 23 seconds, Alabama lit that script on fire.
Jordan Bone miss, offensive rebound, Admiral Schofield miss
John Petty three
Grant Williams miss
Herbert Jones miss
Kyle Alexander miss
Kira Lewis three
John Petty steal
Herbert Jones layup, Bama leads 45-44
The Tide didn’t go away, and Petty stayed hot for nearly seven more minutes. With 9:52 to play, he splashed his sixth three. Alabama led 59-58. Petty had 30 points.
He didn’t score again. He attempted only two more shots.
Some of that was Jordan Bowden; the Vols tried Bowden, then Lamonte Turner, then went back to Bowden on Petty. Donta Hall’s presence (16 points, 12 rebounds) meant extended action from Kyle Alexander, preventing the Vols from using their Bone-Bowden-Turner-Williams-Schofield lineup. The Vols instead tried to chase down an Alabama team taking 26 threes with only two true guards on the floor for most of the game.
And some of that was Alabama, with that combination of open looks and perhaps a belief that Petty’s fire could spread. Petty and Kira Lewis were 9-of-16 from the arc. The rest of the team was 1-of-10. Four of those ten attempts came in the last ten minutes, when Petty couldn’t get a look.
But all of that shouldn’t have mattered. Alabama wins this game if it shoots even a little bit better than 8-of-18 at the free throw line. Tennessee, which has looked incredibly unbeatable for most of the year, looked human today.
Beatable, but not beaten.
The Vols got an and-one from Schofield with 10:14 to play, then went almost seven minutes without making another shot. Alabama’s size and physicality were bothersome for Grant Williams, who needed 17 shots to score 21 points. Lots of jump shots that went down in the first half didn’t in the second, and the Vols shot just 3-of-12 (25%) from the arc.
But the Vols helped put Alabama in drought conditions as well, getting only one field goal from a dunk at 9:25 to a layup at 3:15. This wasn’t Tennessee’s best defensive effort, but it was good enough to win. Meanwhile a jumper by Jordan Bowden took the lid off, and the Vols hit four shots in the final four minutes, including two from a previously-cold Admiral Schofield.
The end of the game is getting plenty of press: a quick travel call on Petty with three seconds left and the Vols up one. In super slow-mo it looks right, though I get how frustrating it would be to have that go against you in real time. Grant Williams fouled out on the previous possession, again a victim of a couple of iffy offensive fouls (if not the last one, definitely the one before). This is no doubt a tough loss for Alabama.
Rick Barnes: As much as I hate to say it, we were fortunate to win this game. But we needed this kind of game. We need to learn from it.
It was a toughness win for Tennessee, who could still go to number one on Monday depending on how voters feel about the outcome of Duke-Virginia. But Barnes will get to sing some of the same song from the second half against Arkansas: those 20 minutes will get you beat in March, and these 20 minutes get you beat today if Alabama hits their free throws.
We already know the Vols can play with the nation’s best from Kansas and Gonzaga. I don’t know how many other teams will present the same combination of on-fire guards and a tough match-up inside like Hall that prevents Tennessee from playing last season’s crunch time lineup. But the Vols get to learn from victory instead of defeat.
So maybe we should start here with these previews: Tennessee is a 15-point favorite over Alabama in KenPom, 16.7 in ESPN’s BPI. That’s the bar this team has set for itself. So we’ll spend a few words here talking about Alabama – 59th in KenPom, next four out in the Bracket Matrix – but right now the Vols are eating bubble teams for breakfast, lunch, and dinner.
It’s tough to find the right comparison for this team. Their SEC contemporaries in year-end KenPom going back are Final Four caliber squads from Florida and Kentucky. But until Tennessee actually achieves that goal, it will continue to feel premature to compare them someone like the Noah/Horford Gators.
And it’s tough to compare them internally, because in many ways right now this feels like the best team in school history. As they’re actively flirting with what the 2008 team did in the regular season by reaching number one, and that squad doesn’t carry an overly-heavy burden of postseason success…maybe that’s a good place to start.
The 2008 vs 2019 Vols
This comparison probably felt a little unfair in preseason, not wanting to burden this team with number one expectations. But at the midway point of the season, it feels incredibly natural.
For our younger viewers, the 2008 Vols brought almost everyone back (minus Dane Bradshaw) from a Sweet 16 squad in 2007. And they carried the same motivation of March heartbreak: less Sister Jean, more Greg Oden.
The 2008 Vols were ranked seventh in the preseason AP poll, a school record broken this year at sixth. A win on Saturday would match 2008’s 16-1 start; those Vols went to Rupp Arena and lost in their 18th game, then won eight in a row to set up the #1 vs #2 showdown with Memphis on February 23.
Bruce Pearl’s non-conference scheduling drifted more toward the high-mid-major gauntlet: the 2008 Vols didn’t play anyone as good as 2019 Kansas or Gonzaga before facing #1 Memphis, but did take down five Top 50 KenPom teams from West Virginia, Western Kentucky, Xavier, Gonzaga, and Ohio State.
The 2008 SEC schedule opened with Ole Miss, surprisingly undefeated. Tennessee won 85-83 on a Tyler Smith bucket at the rim (Pearl in the postgame: “He stuck it up their nose.”) But from there, it gets familiar: Tennessee beat South Carolina by 24, Vanderbilt by 20, then Georgia by 16 after the loss at Rupp. They weren’t all that way: half of Tennessee’s 14 SEC wins in 2008 were of the single digit variety, plus another in the first game of the SEC Tournament.
Honestly, the biggest difference between these two teams right now? Rick Barnes…who, after (in)famously losing to the Vols in 2006 and 2007, beat the 2008 Vols in November by 19 points. Almost no one remembers this game because it took place on the same day as the four overtime win at Kentucky in football to seal the SEC East. The 2008 season also ended with a 19-point loss to Louisville in the Sweet 16, a bad match-up with a ton of length.
…I can’t see the 2019 Vols losing to anyone by 19. And while there are less favorable match-ups…I’m not sure there’s a bad one right now.
In fact, in advanced stats, the only place the 2008 Vols were clearly better is turnovers: Pearl’s team forced a turnover on 24.5% of opponent possessions, 19th nationally. Barnes’ team does so on just 19.1% of opponent possessions, 175th nationally. Everything else is a push, or to the advantage of the current squad.
There’s a long way to go this year. But with a legitimate chance to get to number one this weekend, the Vols could equal their 2008 brethren…and, right now, are playing at a level beyond them in many measurable ways.
On Alabama
But, if you’re looking to come back down to earth…well, that’s what happened last time we played these guys.
Winners of six straight, including the first win at Rupp Arena since 2006, Tennessee rolled into Tuscaloosa 18-5 and in the conversation for the final one seed. Instead, Alabama led by 10 at halftime and dropped the hammer in the second half, winning 78-50. Grant Williams had 16, but the rest of the team went 11-of-46 (23.9%) from the floor.
Collin Sexton is playing for the Cavs these days, but the other two guys who beat up the Vols last year are back: John Petty is now a sophomore averaging 10.9 points per game, and Donta Hall is back for his billionth season at center. Freshman guard Kira Lewis Jr. leads this team in scoring at 14.4 per game; Texas transfer Tevin Mack adds 9.3 points in just 19.8 minutes.
Last Saturday’s 81-80 home loss to Texas A&M tarnished what was looking like a tournament resume for sure. Bama lost to Northeastern in the third game of the year, but has wins over Wichita State, Murray State, Arizona, Liberty, Penn State, and opened SEC play by beating Kentucky. The loss at LSU is nothing to hang one’s head about, as the Tigers are now 30th in KenPom. Last time out they won at Missouri by 10.
The Tide are great on the glass: 44th nationally in offensive rebounding percentage, 39th in defensive rebounding percentage. It’s a big turnaround when your last opponent was Arkansas. Donta Hall is again a beast here on both ends of the floor, though this year’s version of Tennessee shouldn’t eat seven blocked shots like last year. And in the same physical fashion, Bama excels at getting to the line: 18th nationally in free throw rate, though they shoot only 69.3% once there. Defensively they don’t try to force a lot of steals or turnovers, relying more on solid defense and eliminating second chances.
They already beat Kentucky, so arguments to use talent to simply blow past them aren’t as strong here. You also have to go back to Cuonzo Martin’s last year to find a really good performance against these guys, a 76-59 win in Tuscaloosa. Donnie Tyndall’s Vols lost 56-38, and Barnes would be 0-3 against the Tide if not for second half heroics from Lew Evans in the 2017 regular season finale, a game in which the Vols trailed by 16 points.
Tennessee famously hadn’t played well against Georgia under Barnes, then annihilated them a couple weeks ago. But this Bama team is a lot better than Georgia…which leads us back to the same place in these previews, where I find myself saying, “We should be careful with this team…” while acknowledging the Vols are 15-point favorites.
#2 Michigan travels to Wisconsin at noon (ESPN), so we’ll know in part what we’re getting into when our game tips off at 2:00 PM (ESPN2). Wins by Wisconsin, Duke over Virginia (6:00 PM ESPN), and, of course, Tennessee should get the Vols to number one. There’s a lot to play for, a lot to be excited about…and plenty to be cautious about. We owe this team a beat down.
Tennessee’s quest for #1 takes a backseat this week: #1 Duke and #4 Virginia play Saturday in Durham (6:00 PM ET ESPN), and the winner will almost certainly be ranked ahead of the Vols next Monday. That’s a 1 vs 2 showdown in KenPom; it’s exciting just for a game of that magnitude to be relevant to the Vols. Before we get there, Duke played Syracuse on Monday, and there’s a showdown in the Commonwealth tonight between the Cavaliers and #9 Virginia Tech in Charlottesville. Meanwhile #2 Michigan is off midweek, then travels to Wisconsin (14th KenPom) on Saturday. It’ll be interesting to see how the polls and the bracket matrix shake out after this week.
…and then Duke lost to Syracuse, and lost point guard Tre Jones to a shoulder injury.
So now, if Duke bounces back against Virginia and Michigan falls at Wisconsin? The Vols could get to number one on Monday. Tennessee already had more first-place votes than any other team but Duke. Turns out this isn’t a backseat week after all.
The Vols get the reward of a week in Knoxville after trips to Missouri and Florida last week, and will spend it with more of the bubble. Alabama comes calling Saturday, currently the first team out in the matrix. But first, Arkansas.
Last Year: The Agony & The Ecstasy
Most of Tennessee’s losses last year qualified as frustrating; that’s what happens when you win the SEC. North Carolina in the final minutes, Auburn with their bajillion offensive rebounds, the streak-busting blowout at Alabama, plus narrow defeats at Missouri and Georgia. And then there were painful losses in March: to Kentucky in the SEC Tournament finals, and of course to Sister Jean.
But the one that made me want to punch a wall was Arkansas.
Up nine with 3:53 left, a flurry of foul-outs and turnovers allowed Arkansas to get the game to overtime, where more of the same led to a 95-93 Razorback victory. The loss dropped Tennessee to 9-3, 0-1 to open league play.
The rematch, however, was Tennessee’s best game of the season.
In the SEC Tournament semifinals, the Vols shot 57% from the floor, 11-of-17 (64.7%) from the arc, and 85% from the line. Tennessee buried the Hogs 84-66, an exclamation point on a 16-3 run after starting league play 0-2.
Be careful with this team
Arkansas doesn’t look like a great team on paper at 10-5 (1-2), 55th in KenPom. Their best win is over Indiana, which has lost a little luster with the Hoosiers dropping two straight.
But the five losses? Texas by two in overtime, Western Kentucky by one, Georgia Tech by four, Florida by six, LSU by six in overtime. The Hogs are really close to looking a whole lot better.
What probably makes Arkansas fans want to punch a wall: their free throw shooting. In four of those losses:
Texas: 13-of-24 (54.2%)
Western Kentucky: 9-of-16 (56.3%)
Florida: 15-of-26 (57.7%)
LSU: 17-of-28 (60.7%)
The Hogs are literally a few free throws away from being 14-1.
Their guards really hurt us in the first meeting last year, but this team plays through Daniel Gafford. The 6’11” sophomore had 27 in the win over Indiana and just put 32 on LSU. The weakness here, as you can guess: foul him. Gafford shot 52.8% at the line last year, 58% so far this season. He’s had plenty of experience, ranking 22nd nationally in fouls drawn per 40 minutes (via KenPom). The alternative: Gafford is 102-of-155 from the field this year, 83rd nationally.
The rest of the lineup is new after those guards – Barford, Beard, and Macon – all graduated. Mason Jones continues the three-point shooting threat, New Mexico transfer Jalen Harris runs the point, and freshmen Isaiah Joe and Reggie Chaney log plenty of minutes.
It’s the Arkansas DNA you know and love – 41st nationally in tempo – with an emphasis on getting to the free throw line beyond just Gafford, despite their poor shooting there. Because the Hogs want to get up and go, they’re susceptible on the offensive glass. But they’ve also been really good at forcing turnovers, as Florida was, and teams are shooting just 29.9% from the arc against them. The free throw numbers are significant, but they don’t really beat themselves otherwise.
Tennessee, as we’ve seen, is playing at an elite level. So we can make this whole argument about the Hogs being a bubble team a few free throws away from the Top 25…and the Vols can still be favored by 15 in KenPom.
7:00 PM, ESPN2. To stay in the number one conversation even when the nation’s eyeballs are elsewhere this week? Keep winning, keep playing well.
We use S&P+ during football season (and KenPom for basketball) a lot on our site. Part of it comes from the 10+ years we spent at SB Nation, where Bill Connelly continues to do great work with advanced statistics. And specific to Tennessee, the longer the Vols struggle, the more I believe it’s important to find good ways to distinguish what’s happening year to year.
S&P+ isn’t the best way to rank teams; I still work for the head-to-head police, still believe Penn State should’ve been in over Ohio State two years ago, etc. But S&P+ is one of the best ways to rate teams. It doesn’t judge wins and losses, but places a value on every play, adjusted for each opponent. You can read all about what goes into it here, but in general it includes five factors:
Success Rate (staying on schedule with five yards on first down, 70% of what’s left on second down, and converting third/fourth downs).
Points Per Play
+ Scoring Opportunities (what you did inside the 40), Field Position, and Turnover Margin
Not only does S&P+ assign value to every snap, it gives a percentile performance for each game and, ultimately, the season. It’s a good way to distinguish between seasons that finish with similar records, and track a coach and program over time.
Football Outsiders has S&P+ data going back to 2005, including offensive and defensive unit rankings. But a couple off-seasons ago, Bill Connelly published an estimated S&P+ rating for teams as far back as 1970 (all of those links can be found here from Football Study Hall).
We pointed out at the time how S&P+ didn’t rate 1998 as Tennessee’s best team of the 90’s, but instead leaned toward Heath Shuler’s 1993 squad. The ’98 Vols won five one-possession games, plus a fourth quarter comeback in the SEC Championship Game. The ’93 Vols lost to Florida by seven and tied Alabama before ultimately stumbling in the Citrus Bowl against Penn State. But they also decimated everyone else, including a 32-point win over #22 Georgia and 35 points over #13 Louisville. Shuler finished second in the Heisman balloting and the team set a school record for points per game that still stands.
Again, it’s not the best way to rank seasons – ’93 in particular struggles in that department because it lacks a signature win – but it is a good way to ask yourself, “Who would we least like to face?” And the 50 years (okay, 49) of estimated percentile performance give us a ton of context for where Tennessee was, is, and could go.
So, using the data from Football Study Hall, here’s every Tennessee team since 1970 in S&P+, from best to worst:
Team
S&P+ Percentile
Record
1970
97.94
11-1
1993
97.20
9-2-1
1997
96.48
11-2
2001
96.48
11-2
1999
96.00
9-3
1998
95.87
13-0
1972
95.82
10-2
1985
95.46
9-1-2
1995
94.71
11-1
2007
93.30
10-4
2006
92.80
9-4
1990
92.15
9-2-2
1989
91.81
11-1
2009
91.20
7-6
1992
90.80
9-3
1996
89.89
10-2
1974
89.47
7-3-2
1994
87.96
8-4
1991
87.90
9-3
1971
87.28
10-2
1984
87.26
7-4-1
2004
83.56
10-3
2003
82.74
10-3
2015
82.50
9-4
1979
82.48
7-5
2014
81.40
7-6
2005
81.10
5-6
1987
80.48
10-2-1
1983
80.07
9-3
2016
77.60
9-4
2000
75.71
8-4
1980
75.44
5-6
2012
73.60
5-7
2011
73.20
5-7
1975
72.88
7-5
2002
71.06
8-5
2013
69.80
5-7
2008
68.80
5-7
1973
62.75
8-4
1986
59.51
7-5
1976
59.28
6-5
1977
56.32
4-7
1982
55.46
6-5-1
1978
55.04
5-5-1
2010
55.00
6-7
1988
47.16
5-6
2018
39.00
5-7
1981
35.63
8-4
2017
17.40
4-8
The first data point is the highest: the 1970 Vols lost to #17 Auburn in week two, but didn’t fall again. They beat #13 Georgia Tech 17-6, then beat Alabama 24-0 and Florida 38-7 in consecutive weeks. LSU lost a pair of non-conference games in 1970 but went undefeated in the SEC; as the Vols and Tigers did not meet, #5 LSU won the SEC and got a shot at #3 Nebraska in the Orange Bowl, with an outside chance at the national championship. The #4 Vols went to the Sugar Bowl and beat #11 Air Force 34-13. The Cornhuskers beat LSU to claim the national championship when #1 Texas and #2 Ohio State both lost their bowl games; had the Vols played Nebraska instead they too would’ve been playing for the title.
Shuler’s ’93 Vols are second on the list, meaning the two highest-rated teams of the last 50 years both had first-year coaches in Bill Battle and Phillip Fulmer. From there, it’s the list you expect: the most memorable seasons from the decade of dominance, Condredge Holloway’s 1972 Vols, and the 1985 Sugar Vols.
In S&P+, the 2017 season is the worst of the last 50 years by a significant margin. The Vols went 4-8, but it was more than that. The Vols were statistically dominated in the win over Georgia Tech. And UT was both non-competitive in five blowout losses, and failed to measure up play-for-play in close losses to Florida, South Carolina, and Kentucky. The S&P+ win expectancy in those three games: 19%, 23%, and 33%, plus just 23% against Georgia Tech.
Only 1981 kept 2018 from making it back-to-back years at the bottom of S&P+. The ’81 Vols are an interesting example of how S&P+ works: Tennessee went 8-4, but the four losses were by 44 to Georgia, 36 to USC, 19 to Alabama, and 11 to Kentucky. Meanwhile the Vols beat Auburn and Georgia Tech by identical 10-7 scores, beat Vanderbilt by four, and survived Wichita State 24-21. Play-for-play, the ’81 Vols were really bad…but they found a way to win every close game. And that team, and the ones to follow, help teach us a good lesson.
The Early 80’s as a Guide?
The records didn’t show straight-line improvement for Johnny Majors from 1981-84: 8-4, 6-5-1, 9-3, 7-4-1. But in S&P+, the Vols were getting stronger every year, laying the groundwork for the SEC title in 1985.
The 2018 Vols are third-worst in S&P+ in the last 50 years…but they were significantly better than their predecessors. It’s easy to make things pass/fail: if the Vols had beaten South Carolina, Missouri, or Vanderbilt to get bowl eligible at 6-6, it would’ve seemed a lot easier to praise Jeremy Pruitt for his year one work. But play-for-play, Tennessee made progress.
You always start with wins and losses, and in the end, you circle back there. But in between, it’s worth valuing every play. And while there’s a long way to go back to the top, Tennessee took a solid first step away from the bottom in 2018.
The Ups and Downs of Any Program
S&P+ puts 2006 and 2007 in a different light too. After an abundance of close wins in 2003 and 2004 (and close losses in 2005), the Vols were far closer to their 90’s neighbors in 2006: one-point loss to the eventual champs, four-point loss to Top 10 LSU, and significant blowouts of Cal and Georgia. The Vols got blown out three times in 2007, but the weight of the ongoing Fulmer conversation probably made us undervalue Tennessee blowing out Georgia and Arkansas in return.
2008 was still the worst year of the Fulmer era; the last ten years may have changed your mind, but in the moment there were certainly reasonable arguments for moving on in wins and losses. But play-for-play, the Vols weren’t far away in the two years before Fulmer was out, and nearly returned to the same form with Fulmer’s players in Lane Kiffin’s one and only year.
Since then, things have trended downhill in a hurry. Even what some may think of as the good Butch Jones years – 2014-2016 – were, both play-for-play and in the end result, several steps behind Tennessee’s best days.
I’m not sure it’s realistic to make the 90’s the definition of success; in the last 50 years that’s the ceiling, but not always where we live. Since 1970 the Vols are better understood as a program capable of hitting those high notes – and its current athletic director hired a coach with that possibility in mind – but also one that has its ups and downs, and is currently in the middle of a historic down. Progress, for Fulmer and Pruitt, looks first like getting the Vols above the thresholds Dooley and Butch reached but could not surpass. At this point, in these ratings, it’s still a steeper climb than either of them faced. But looking for said progress is part of the fun. It’ll always be easier when the Vols are winning close games instead of losing them. But so far for Jeremy Pruitt, progress is there.
Any program is a roller coaster over the course of 50 years. We come back every fall because we love the ride itself, not just the wins. History suggests we’ve never been as low as in the last two years…but history also shows the heights this program can attain. And we’re in the middle of a basketball season showing us you can always go higher.
For the Vols, and for Pruitt, right now it’s simply about going forward.
Surprise blowouts are delightful, but perhaps we forgot how much fun one of these can be too.
Florida was 22nd in overall KenPom and fifth in defensive efficiency. The Vols were favored by only a deuce. And to the finish, the Gators lived up to all of that, even if differently than we thought.
The Gators take a lot of threes…but 22 of them in the first half compared to seven attempts from inside the arc? Not sure I’ve seen that ratio against the Vols before. But…it worked. Florida splashed enough of them for a 38-35 halftime advantage, due in large part to their ability to defend well without fouling. Tennessee had just three tries at the free throw line in the first half, and still finished -7 in attempts to the Gators for the game.
Florida was good defensively…but in the end, just not quite good enough.
Tennessee answered a KeVauhgn Allen three to open the second half with an 8-0 run to take the lead. The Vols pushed the lead to five a couple of times around the ten minute mark, but Florida didn’t fold. With eight minutes to play, a wild sequence saw eight consecutive possessions end with points: each time Florida took the lead first, then the Vols immediately tied it up. And by “the Vols”, I mean Jordan Bowden: 12 straight Tennessee points, capped off with a three, a steal, and a slam to give Tennessee the lead.
The Vols held the lead into the final minute, up two. Points came easiest on this night for Grant Williams, who followed up a 23-point performance against Florida last year with 20 tonight. He got the ball near the top of the key, took a step or two…and found Admiral Schofield in the corner. And if you’re looking for a big shot this year, look no further: a three with three on the shot clock put the Vols up five with 45 seconds to play. A couple free throws and a couple steal-and-scores from there, and we got this:
Again, Florida was good. But “good” simply isn’t enough to beat Tennessee right now.
I feel like we’ve been on the other side of this game plenty of times against a top-five Kentucky or Florida squad: played hard, played well, had our chances, couldn’t finish. If you like that comparison, consider this: the Vols go to +28.60 in KenPom, fourth nationally and, insanely, second nationally in offense. Only two of John Calipari’s Kentucky teams finished a year better than +28.60. One won the title with Anthony Davis, the other was undefeated until it lost in the Final Four. Only two of Billy Donovan’s Florida teams finished a year better than that (KenPom goes back to 2002). One won the title in 2007, the other made the Elite Eight in 2013.
There’s a ton of basketball left to play, and plenty of chances for the Vols to go up or down. But right now, the Vols are playing among or above elite company in both Tennessee and recent SEC history.
A week on the road leads to a week at home: Arkansas on Tuesday, Alabama on Saturday. Kermit Davis and Ole Miss inserting themselves into the SEC title race has done nothing to change the back-ended nature of Tennessee’s schedule: the Vols will finish the season with at LSU, at Ole Miss, vs Kentucky, vs Mississippi State, at Auburn. We get the Cats twice, of course, but otherwise those are the only meetings on the calendar with the rest of that list. Florida returns to Knoxville on February 9.
Long way to go. But so far, lots of fun along the way.
Everyone is on the books now in SEC action, and most of the league has played twice. The other teams we believed to be contenders for the SEC Championship – Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, and Mississippi State, all Top 25 in KenPom – have already lost once. Tennessee beat Georgia by 46, then won at Missouri by 24. The Vols are now projected to win the SEC at 14-4 in KenPom. But more than that, the second place team(s) are projected to finish 11-7.
Tennessee, meanwhile, is now fifth nationally in KenPom with a rating of +26.87 (points better than the average team on a neutral floor in 100 possessions). It’s easily the program’s best rating in the 18-year KenPom history. I’ll leave the Ernie & Bernie comparisons to those old enough to have seen both, but otherwise, right now you’ve got statistical backup for, “This is the best Tennessee team I’ve ever seen.”
With that comes an exciting curiosity: now it’s not just if the Vols will win, but can they ascend the blowout ladder? Rebuilding team with a first-year coach, check. Bubble team on the road, check.
What about the Gators? KenPom still only projects the Vols as a two-point favorite in Gainesville, so perhaps we shouldn’t get too greedy. But I’m also not sure this team is done teaching us what greedy actually looks like just yet.
Last Year: After a 9-1 stretch book-ended with victories over Kentucky, the Vols lost two of their next three to fall out of the number one seed conversation. Florida was the return to form: a gritty 62-57 win in Knoxville, which helped us simplify Tennessee’s best basketball to a degree.
This was the game that made us start conversations with, “Does this team have anyone who can guard Grant Williams?” The soon-to-be SEC Player of the Year had 23 points on 8-of-12 shooting and 7-of-8 at the line. A Florida team that found plenty of success leaning on guards Chris Chiozza and KeVaughn Allen had no answer for Williams.
I’m not sure how much that’s changed. The Gators still like putting four guys at 6’5″ and under on the floor with a single big, most often 6’9″ senior Kevarrius Hayes. He’s a good shot-blocker, but he and 6’8″ junior Keith Stone are really the only shot blockers on this team. The Vols remain first in the nation in fewest shots blocked.
Where Florida does make its living is turnovers. The Gators are fifth nationally in defensive efficiency, the Vols fourth in offensive efficiency, which should make this really fun to watch…if Florida has an answer for Williams. Forcing turnovers on 24.6% of opponent possessions (seventh nationally) is a good start. The Gators are 7-2 when forcing 15+ turnovers, 2-3 when they don’t hit that mark.
KeVauhgn Allen is still around, but a pair of freshmen guards – Noah Locke and Andrew Nembhard – are a big part of what they like to do as well. Nembhard is 28th nationally in assist rate, averaging 5.7 per game. Locke is a volume shooter, hitting 42.4% from the arc so far this year.
It’s thankfully the first of two with the Gators this year, who return to Knoxville on February 9 in an already sold out Thompson-Boling. This one will get some national eyeballs – 6:00 PM ET Saturday, ESPN – and represents another big chance for Tennessee to separate themselves from the SEC contenders. We’ll see how much additional separation the Vols can create in Gainesville.
Grant Williams fouled out with four points on 1-of-8 shooting. The Vols lead the nation in assist percentage at 69%. Tonight: only 12 assists on 31 made shots, 38.7%. Missouri made Tennessee beat them with more one-on-one play, and do so without much of anything from its best player.
And…we did. Convincingly. Massively.
Cuonzo remains a Rorschach for Tennessee fans, but what is fact is the way his UT teams played at home against the best competition. His first team beat an Elite Eight Florida squad and lost to Kentucky’s National Championship team by three. His second team saw Marshall Henderson and Ole Miss pull away late for a 92-74 win, but the Vols were within single digits for most of the second half. They beat Wichita State and another Elite Eight Florida squad in Knoxville, plus Kentucky by 30. His final team battled the Gators, undefeated in the SEC, to the final minute in Knoxville.
I’ve never seen a Cuonzo Martin team take a beating like this at home.
If Tennessee can do this, with Grant Williams and effective ball movement handcuffed, to a bubble squad on the road? I’m not sure how many SEC teams on the bubble or below are going to beat the Vols this year. At this point, we get to question how many will even threaten.
When great individual efforts were required tonight, how about Kyle Alexander: 14 points, 17 rebounds, three blocks. Jordan Bowden came off the bench with 20, again. And best of all, Lamonte Turner looked off in his return against Georgia, but not tonight: 3-of-4 from the arc.
Tennessee was favored by seven and won by 24. The good news, in a sense, is the challenge continues to increase: we’re off to Gainesville on Saturday, where the Vols were only favored by one in KenPom before tonight. As was the case after Georgia, I keep trying to remind myself any win is a good win and to appreciate everything about this team. But this team, even outside of what we would consider its best basketball, is giving us far more to appreciate than we thought possible.
The Vols held on to number three in the AP poll, 18 votes behind Michigan for number two, 10 votes ahead of Virginia at number four. Those three and number one Duke are also the one seeds in the most recent Bracket Matrix. The Cavaliers and Blue Devils will square off on January 19, with the winner there likely to jump or stay ahead of the Vols unless they lose somewhere else. The somewhere else possibilities this week:
Duke: at Wake Forest (158 KenPom) Tuesday, at Florida State (20) Saturday
Michigan: at Illinois (106) Thursday, vs Northwestern (51) Sunday
Virginia: at Boston College (104) Wednesday, at Clemson (36) Saturday
It’s clearly the week to be on the road at the top of the polls: Tennessee is at Missouri tonight, at Florida on Saturday. The game with the Gators gets primetime treatment: 6:00 PM Saturday on ESPN, though a little luster is off with Florida’s loss to South Carolina to open SEC play. But first, the Tigers.
Last Year
Missouri built a 10-point lead with 6:47 to play, then didn’t make another shot…but it was enough. Tennessee shot 5-of-21 from the arc (23.8%) and 8-of-13 (61.5%) from the line, and couldn’t put it together in the final minute while the Tigers finished off a 15-of-17 performance at the line in a 59-55 Missouri win.
The Tigers earned an eight seed in the NCAA Tournament, but were vanquished by Florida State in the opening round. Then they essentially lost their top four scorers with the graduation of Kassius Robertson and Jordan Barnett, Michael Porter Jr. heading to the NBA after appearing in just three games, and then his brother Jontay tore his ACL in a preseason scrimmage.
But this is still a veteran team: Jordan Geist and Kevin Puryear are seniors, Jeremiah Tilmon played 19 minutes a game last year and Mark Smith did the same at Illinois before transferring in.
The Cuonzo Rorschach
…looks about the same as last year to me: unexpectedly playing without the guy they would’ve counted on most, Missouri started slow: 17-point loss at Iowa State, 15-point loss to Kansas State on a neutral floor, two-point home loss to Temple, all in November. But when they get hot, they burn it down: a two-point overtime win over Central Florida sparked the current six-game winning streak, including a 15-point win over Xavier and a 16-point win over Illinois. And, as noted by many, they haven’t played since December 29. There will be some rust to knock off, but I’m sure there will also be a long and detailed scouting report.
The Tigers are 74th in KenPom and 66th in NET. The tempo (327th fastest nationally) and defense (69th in defensive efficiency) are what you’d expect. But a few things do stand out about this match-up:
Get dunked on: Jeremiah Tilmon is 6’10” and Kevin Puryear is 6’7″, but the rest of the major contributors on this team are between 6’2″ and 6’4″. Missouri is 311th nationally in shot blocking percentage. That’s bad news, because the Vols are first in the nation in fewest shots blocked.
Opponents average just 62.3% at the line against Missouri. It’s totally random, but does represent the sixth-lowest opponent percentage in college basketball. In their current winning streak, Xavier went 12-of-21 (57.1%) and Illinois 7-of-14 (50%). The Vols shoot 74.2% at the line, 52nd nationally; Grant Williams is 12th nationally in fouls drawn per 40 minutes (via KenPom).
Mark Smith is the primary shooting threat. After shooting just 23.2% from the arc at Illinois, he’s 30-of-65 (46.2%) this year at Missouri.
It’s the first of two with Missouri this year, with the return match in Knoxville on February 5. Don’t expect everything to resemble a 46-point beat down. Vegas likes the Vols -7.5, KenPom -7. If Tennessee is going to distance themselves from a Cuonzo Martin team, expect them to do so on the defensive end: less viper, more boa constrictor tonight.
When you carry the number three next to your name, it’s easy for the enjoyable to get a little too normal. You nitpick, you look ahead, etc.
Tennessee was favored by 15 (via KenPom) over Georgia today in the SEC opener, a team Rick Barnes had beaten once – barely, to win the SEC last year – in his tenure in Knoxville. The Dawgs play a bunch of guys and are still trying to figure it out in Tom Crean’s first year, but had won five of six, including a near-miss with Arizona State and an 11-point win at Georgia Tech. There’s no such thing as a bad win in college basketball, especially to open league play. Getting the W is still at the top of the list, but the Vols are also still trying to stay in the chase for number one, in the polls and the bracket. That’s the standard you get to get judged by in the top five.
Today, Tennessee was incredible by any standard. And we should take the opportunity to appreciate it as much as possible.
A 46-point win is one shy of the program record in an SEC game. It’s the fifth 40+ point win in league play for the Vols, but the first since 1979. Georgia’s Derek Ogbeide, in foul trouble immediately, still finished with 17 points on 6-of-9 shooting with six rebounds. The rest of the team? 11-of-44 (25%), 33 points. Georgia was 1-for-20 from the arc.
Tennessee? Eighteen each from PB&J, 20 from Jordan Bowden off the bench, and a 12-14 from Kyle Alexander. The Vols shot just 6-of-18 from the arc and won by 46, thanks to a lethal 28-of-46 (61%) inside the arc, 22-of-26 at the line, +15 in rebounds and a 25-9 assist-turnover ratio. This was a 40-minute (or like 39.5 minute as the Vols held the ball with a chance to get that record) beat down in every way.
The Vols also got Lamonte Turner back, who went 0-for-3 from the arc but still scored six points. His presence and the blowout allowed the Vols to keep everyone under 30 minutes.
In KenPom, the Vols moved from 11th to eighth. Their current rating there – +24.72 (margin of victory vs the average team in 100 possessions) – is now the best in program history. We could find ourselves saying that a lot more often this year. But first…
It’s a trap!
As Rob Lewis pointed out on VolQuest a few days ago, Missouri is next, and the Tigers will be well-rested. Cuonzo’s squad hasn’t played since December 29, and didn’t open SEC play today because they’re not in the SEC/Big 12 Challenge (neither is Auburn or Mississippi State, a big fail by whoever puts these together). So the Tigers will have ten days of preparation for the Vols, who get the short turnaround for a 7:00 PM Tuesday night tip in CoMo. It’s the first of two between the Vols and Tigers; Mizzou won last year 59-55.
Tennessee is only favored by six over the Tigers in KenPom. They won’t all be 46-point wins. But in the midst of what could be a special season, this was a special chapter. We haven’t seen this level of dominance in my lifetime in conference play. That qualifies as a good start.
It’ll be another sellout, this time to open league play. Thought this was interesting:
#Vols associate HC Rob Lanier: "We have yet to outplay Georgia."
Tennessee lost by 11 at Georgia last season and had to rally late to win at home in regular-season finale with share of SEC title on the line. Lanier said his team was tough enough to find a way to win at home.
Before the split last season, the Vols lost two games (one in the SEC Tournament) to Georgia by three total points in 2017. And in 2016, Georgia won 81-72 in Athens.
Mark Fox is out after nine years, Tom Crean in. The Dawgs made three NIT’s and a one-and-done in the NCAA Tournament from 2014-17, but went 18-15 (7-11) last season, Yante Maten’s last.
This is still a huge team. Rayshaun Hammonds, Nicolas Claxton, and Derek Ogbeide go 6’8″, 6’11”, 6’9″. Like Tennessee, they love blocking shots (18th nationally) and don’t eat many on the other end (24th). Their first-shot defense has been pretty good: teams shoot 29.8% from the arc and 43.1% inside it against them.
But the biggest issue for Georgia has been turnovers. The Dawgs give it away on an astounding 22.4% of their possessions, 319th nationally. Georgia averages 15.7 turnovers per game and forces only 11.3. My math says that’s nearly 4.5 extra possessions for the opposition every night. For a Tennessee team that has struggled to create turnovers so far this year, Georgia should be a welcome sight.
One reason why: this is the longest bench I’ve ever seen. Nine players average double digit minutes, a dozen average six or more. Georgia is playing really fast with a new coach and a bunch of different lineups off the bench, which right now is leading to a bunch of turnovers.
It’ll be interesting to see if Georgia’s defense can slow Tennessee’s offense, but the Vols should have the clear advantage on the other end of the floor. Keep an eye on Tyree Crump, a career 32% shooter from the arc who’s incredibly hot at 43.1% so far this year.
KenPom likes the Vols by 15. That would qualify as a good start to league play. 3:30 PM, SEC Network. Go Vols.
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