Tennessee vs Alabama (and 2008 Tennessee) Preview

So maybe we should start here with these previews: Tennessee is a 15-point favorite over Alabama in KenPom, 16.7 in ESPN’s BPI. That’s the bar this team has set for itself. So we’ll spend a few words here talking about Alabama – 59th in KenPom, next four out in the Bracket Matrix – but right now the Vols are eating bubble teams for breakfast, lunch, and dinner.

It’s tough to find the right comparison for this team. Their SEC contemporaries in year-end KenPom going back are Final Four caliber squads from Florida and Kentucky. But until Tennessee actually achieves that goal, it will continue to feel premature to compare them someone like the Noah/Horford Gators.

And it’s tough to compare them internally, because in many ways right now this feels like the best team in school history. As they’re actively flirting with what the 2008 team did in the regular season by reaching number one, and that squad doesn’t carry an overly-heavy burden of postseason success…maybe that’s a good place to start.

The 2008 vs 2019 Vols

This comparison probably felt a little unfair in preseason, not wanting to burden this team with number one expectations. But at the midway point of the season, it feels incredibly natural.

For our younger viewers, the 2008 Vols brought almost everyone back (minus Dane Bradshaw) from a Sweet 16 squad in 2007. And they carried the same motivation of March heartbreak: less Sister Jean, more Greg Oden.

The 2008 Vols were ranked seventh in the preseason AP poll, a school record broken this year at sixth. A win on Saturday would match 2008’s 16-1 start; those Vols went to Rupp Arena and lost in their 18th game, then won eight in a row to set up the #1 vs #2 showdown with Memphis on February 23.

Bruce Pearl’s non-conference scheduling drifted more toward the high-mid-major gauntlet: the 2008 Vols didn’t play anyone as good as 2019 Kansas or Gonzaga before facing #1 Memphis, but did take down five Top 50 KenPom teams from West Virginia, Western Kentucky, Xavier, Gonzaga, and Ohio State.

The 2008 SEC schedule opened with Ole Miss, surprisingly undefeated. Tennessee won 85-83 on a Tyler Smith bucket at the rim (Pearl in the postgame: “He stuck it up their nose.”) But from there, it gets familiar: Tennessee beat South Carolina by 24, Vanderbilt by 20, then Georgia by 16 after the loss at Rupp. They weren’t all that way: half of Tennessee’s 14 SEC wins in 2008 were of the single digit variety, plus another in the first game of the SEC Tournament.

Honestly, the biggest difference between these two teams right now? Rick Barnes…who, after (in)famously losing to the Vols in 2006 and 2007, beat the 2008 Vols in November by 19 points. Almost no one remembers this game because it took place on the same day as the four overtime win at Kentucky in football to seal the SEC East. The 2008 season also ended with a 19-point loss to Louisville in the Sweet 16, a bad match-up with a ton of length.

…I can’t see the 2019 Vols losing to anyone by 19. And while there are less favorable match-ups…I’m not sure there’s a bad one right now.

In fact, in advanced stats, the only place the 2008 Vols were clearly better is turnovers: Pearl’s team forced a turnover on 24.5% of opponent possessions, 19th nationally. Barnes’ team does so on just 19.1% of opponent possessions, 175th nationally. Everything else is a push, or to the advantage of the current squad.

There’s a long way to go this year. But with a legitimate chance to get to number one this weekend, the Vols could equal their 2008 brethren…and, right now, are playing at a level beyond them in many measurable ways.

On Alabama

But, if you’re looking to come back down to earth…well, that’s what happened last time we played these guys.

Winners of six straight, including the first win at Rupp Arena since 2006, Tennessee rolled into Tuscaloosa 18-5 and in the conversation for the final one seed. Instead, Alabama led by 10 at halftime and dropped the hammer in the second half, winning 78-50. Grant Williams had 16, but the rest of the team went 11-of-46 (23.9%) from the floor.

Collin Sexton is playing for the Cavs these days, but the other two guys who beat up the Vols last year are back: John Petty is now a sophomore averaging 10.9 points per game, and Donta Hall is back for his billionth season at center. Freshman guard Kira Lewis Jr. leads this team in scoring at 14.4 per game; Texas transfer Tevin Mack adds 9.3 points in just 19.8 minutes.

Last Saturday’s 81-80 home loss to Texas A&M tarnished what was looking like a tournament resume for sure. Bama lost to Northeastern in the third game of the year, but has wins over Wichita State, Murray State, Arizona, Liberty, Penn State, and opened SEC play by beating Kentucky. The loss at LSU is nothing to hang one’s head about, as the Tigers are now 30th in KenPom. Last time out they won at Missouri by 10.

The Tide are great on the glass: 44th nationally in offensive rebounding percentage, 39th in defensive rebounding percentage. It’s a big turnaround when your last opponent was Arkansas. Donta Hall is again a beast here on both ends of the floor, though this year’s version of Tennessee shouldn’t eat seven blocked shots like last year. And in the same physical fashion, Bama excels at getting to the line: 18th nationally in free throw rate, though they shoot only 69.3% once there. Defensively they don’t try to force a lot of steals or turnovers, relying more on solid defense and eliminating second chances.

They already beat Kentucky, so arguments to use talent to simply blow past them aren’t as strong here. You also have to go back to Cuonzo Martin’s last year to find a really good performance against these guys, a 76-59 win in Tuscaloosa. Donnie Tyndall’s Vols lost 56-38, and Barnes would be 0-3 against the Tide if not for second half heroics from Lew Evans in the 2017 regular season finale, a game in which the Vols trailed by 16 points.

Tennessee famously hadn’t played well against Georgia under Barnes, then annihilated them a couple weeks ago. But this Bama team is a lot better than Georgia…which leads us back to the same place in these previews, where I find myself saying, “We should be careful with this team…” while acknowledging the Vols are 15-point favorites.

#2 Michigan travels to Wisconsin at noon (ESPN), so we’ll know in part what we’re getting into when our game tips off at 2:00 PM (ESPN2). Wins by Wisconsin, Duke over Virginia (6:00 PM ESPN), and, of course, Tennessee should get the Vols to number one. There’s a lot to play for, a lot to be excited about…and plenty to be cautious about. We owe this team a beat down.

Beat Bama.