Author Archives: Will Shelton

Where 2018 Ranks in the Last 50 Years of Tennessee Football

We use S&P+ during football season (and KenPom for basketball) a lot on our site. Part of it comes from the 10+ years we spent at SB Nation, where Bill Connelly continues to do great work with advanced statistics. And specific to Tennessee, the longer the Vols struggle, the more I believe it’s important to find good ways to distinguish what’s happening year to year.

S&P+ isn’t the best way to rank teams; I still work for the head-to-head police, still believe Penn State should’ve been in over Ohio State two years ago, etc. But S&P+ is one of the best ways to rate teams. It doesn’t judge wins and losses, but places a value on every play, adjusted for each opponent. You can read all about what goes into it here, but in general it includes five factors:

  • Success Rate (staying on schedule with five yards on first down, 70% of what’s left on second down, and converting third/fourth downs).
  • Points Per Play
  • + Scoring Opportunities (what you did inside the 40), Field Position, and Turnover Margin

Not only does S&P+ assign value to every snap, it gives a percentile performance for each game and, ultimately, the season. It’s a good way to distinguish between seasons that finish with similar records, and track a coach and program over time.

Football Outsiders has S&P+ data going back to 2005, including offensive and defensive unit rankings. But a couple off-seasons ago, Bill Connelly published an estimated S&P+ rating for teams as far back as 1970 (all of those links can be found here from Football Study Hall).

We pointed out at the time how S&P+ didn’t rate 1998 as Tennessee’s best team of the 90’s, but instead leaned toward Heath Shuler’s 1993 squad. The ’98 Vols won five one-possession games, plus a fourth quarter comeback in the SEC Championship Game. The ’93 Vols lost to Florida by seven and tied Alabama before ultimately stumbling in the Citrus Bowl against Penn State. But they also decimated everyone else, including a 32-point win over #22 Georgia and 35 points over #13 Louisville. Shuler finished second in the Heisman balloting and the team set a school record for points per game that still stands.

Again, it’s not the best way to rank seasons – ’93 in particular struggles in that department because it lacks a signature win – but it is a good way to ask yourself, “Who would we least like to face?” And the 50 years (okay, 49) of estimated percentile performance give us a ton of context for where Tennessee was, is, and could go.

So, using the data from Football Study Hall, here’s every Tennessee team since 1970 in S&P+, from best to worst:

TeamS&P+ PercentileRecord
197097.9411-1
199397.209-2-1
199796.4811-2
200196.4811-2
199996.009-3
199895.8713-0
197295.8210-2
198595.469-1-2
199594.7111-1
200793.3010-4
200692.809-4
199092.159-2-2
198991.8111-1
200991.207-6
199290.809-3
199689.8910-2
197489.477-3-2
199487.968-4
199187.909-3
197187.2810-2
198487.267-4-1
200483.5610-3
200382.7410-3
201582.509-4
197982.487-5
201481.407-6
200581.105-6
198780.4810-2-1
198380.079-3
201677.609-4
200075.718-4
198075.445-6
201273.605-7
201173.205-7
197572.887-5
200271.068-5
201369.805-7
200868.805-7
197362.758-4
198659.517-5
197659.286-5
197756.324-7
198255.466-5-1
197855.045-5-1
201055.006-7
198847.165-6
201839.005-7
198135.638-4
201717.404-8

The first data point is the highest: the 1970 Vols lost to #17 Auburn in week two, but didn’t fall again. They beat #13 Georgia Tech 17-6, then beat Alabama 24-0 and Florida 38-7 in consecutive weeks. LSU lost a pair of non-conference games in 1970 but went undefeated in the SEC; as the Vols and Tigers did not meet, #5 LSU won the SEC and got a shot at #3 Nebraska in the Orange Bowl, with an outside chance at the national championship. The #4 Vols went to the Sugar Bowl and beat #11 Air Force 34-13. The Cornhuskers beat LSU to claim the national championship when #1 Texas and #2 Ohio State both lost their bowl games; had the Vols played Nebraska instead they too would’ve been playing for the title.

Shuler’s ’93 Vols are second on the list, meaning the two highest-rated teams of the last 50 years both had first-year coaches in Bill Battle and Phillip Fulmer. From there, it’s the list you expect: the most memorable seasons from the decade of dominance, Condredge Holloway’s 1972 Vols, and the 1985 Sugar Vols.

Here’s what it looks like over time:

And here’s the Google Sheet where you can interact with the data.

So…what can we learn here?

The Last Two Years Really Have Been Rock Bottom

In S&P+, the 2017 season is the worst of the last 50 years by a significant margin. The Vols went 4-8, but it was more than that. The Vols were statistically dominated in the win over Georgia Tech. And UT was both non-competitive in five blowout losses, and failed to measure up play-for-play in close losses to Florida, South Carolina, and Kentucky. The S&P+ win expectancy in those three games: 19%, 23%, and 33%, plus just 23% against Georgia Tech.

Only 1981 kept 2018 from making it back-to-back years at the bottom of S&P+. The ’81 Vols are an interesting example of how S&P+ works: Tennessee went 8-4, but the four losses were by 44 to Georgia, 36 to USC, 19 to Alabama, and 11 to Kentucky. Meanwhile the Vols beat Auburn and Georgia Tech by identical 10-7 scores, beat Vanderbilt by four, and survived Wichita State 24-21. Play-for-play, the ’81 Vols were really bad…but they found a way to win every close game. And that team, and the ones to follow, help teach us a good lesson.

The Early 80’s as a Guide?

The records didn’t show straight-line improvement for Johnny Majors from 1981-84: 8-4, 6-5-1, 9-3, 7-4-1. But in S&P+, the Vols were getting stronger every year, laying the groundwork for the SEC title in 1985.

The 2018 Vols are third-worst in S&P+ in the last 50 years…but they were significantly better than their predecessors. It’s easy to make things pass/fail: if the Vols had beaten South Carolina, Missouri, or Vanderbilt to get bowl eligible at 6-6, it would’ve seemed a lot easier to praise Jeremy Pruitt for his year one work. But play-for-play, Tennessee made progress.

You always start with wins and losses, and in the end, you circle back there. But in between, it’s worth valuing every play. And while there’s a long way to go back to the top, Tennessee took a solid first step away from the bottom in 2018.

The Ups and Downs of Any Program

S&P+ puts 2006 and 2007 in a different light too. After an abundance of close wins in 2003 and 2004 (and close losses in 2005), the Vols were far closer to their 90’s neighbors in 2006: one-point loss to the eventual champs, four-point loss to Top 10 LSU, and significant blowouts of Cal and Georgia. The Vols got blown out three times in 2007, but the weight of the ongoing Fulmer conversation probably made us undervalue Tennessee blowing out Georgia and Arkansas in return.

2008 was still the worst year of the Fulmer era; the last ten years may have changed your mind, but in the moment there were certainly reasonable arguments for moving on in wins and losses. But play-for-play, the Vols weren’t far away in the two years before Fulmer was out, and nearly returned to the same form with Fulmer’s players in Lane Kiffin’s one and only year.

Since then, things have trended downhill in a hurry. Even what some may think of as the good Butch Jones years – 2014-2016 – were, both play-for-play and in the end result, several steps behind Tennessee’s best days.

I’m not sure it’s realistic to make the 90’s the definition of success; in the last 50 years that’s the ceiling, but not always where we live. Since 1970 the Vols are better understood as a program capable of hitting those high notes – and its current athletic director hired a coach with that possibility in mind – but also one that has its ups and downs, and is currently in the middle of a historic down. Progress, for Fulmer and Pruitt, looks first like getting the Vols above the thresholds Dooley and Butch reached but could not surpass. At this point, in these ratings, it’s still a steeper climb than either of them faced. But looking for said progress is part of the fun. It’ll always be easier when the Vols are winning close games instead of losing them. But so far for Jeremy Pruitt, progress is there.

Any program is a roller coaster over the course of 50 years. We come back every fall because we love the ride itself, not just the wins. History suggests we’ve never been as low as in the last two years…but history also shows the heights this program can attain. And we’re in the middle of a basketball season showing us you can always go higher.

For the Vols, and for Pruitt, right now it’s simply about going forward.

Tennessee 78 Florida 67: Put Your Hands Together

Surprise blowouts are delightful, but perhaps we forgot how much fun one of these can be too.

Florida was 22nd in overall KenPom and fifth in defensive efficiency. The Vols were favored by only a deuce. And to the finish, the Gators lived up to all of that, even if differently than we thought.

The Gators take a lot of threes…but 22 of them in the first half compared to seven attempts from inside the arc? Not sure I’ve seen that ratio against the Vols before. But…it worked. Florida splashed enough of them for a 38-35 halftime advantage, due in large part to their ability to defend well without fouling. Tennessee had just three tries at the free throw line in the first half, and still finished -7 in attempts to the Gators for the game.

Florida was good defensively…but in the end, just not quite good enough.

Tennessee answered a KeVauhgn Allen three to open the second half with an 8-0 run to take the lead. The Vols pushed the lead to five a couple of times around the ten minute mark, but Florida didn’t fold. With eight minutes to play, a wild sequence saw eight consecutive possessions end with points: each time Florida took the lead first, then the Vols immediately tied it up. And by “the Vols”, I mean Jordan Bowden: 12 straight Tennessee points, capped off with a three, a steal, and a slam to give Tennessee the lead.

The Vols held the lead into the final minute, up two. Points came easiest on this night for Grant Williams, who followed up a 23-point performance against Florida last year with 20 tonight. He got the ball near the top of the key, took a step or two…and found Admiral Schofield in the corner. And if you’re looking for a big shot this year, look no further: a three with three on the shot clock put the Vols up five with 45 seconds to play. A couple free throws and a couple steal-and-scores from there, and we got this:

Again, Florida was good. But “good” simply isn’t enough to beat Tennessee right now.

I feel like we’ve been on the other side of this game plenty of times against a top-five Kentucky or Florida squad: played hard, played well, had our chances, couldn’t finish. If you like that comparison, consider this: the Vols go to +28.60 in KenPom, fourth nationally and, insanely, second nationally in offense. Only two of John Calipari’s Kentucky teams finished a year better than +28.60. One won the title with Anthony Davis, the other was undefeated until it lost in the Final Four. Only two of Billy Donovan’s Florida teams finished a year better than that (KenPom goes back to 2002). One won the title in 2007, the other made the Elite Eight in 2013.

There’s a ton of basketball left to play, and plenty of chances for the Vols to go up or down. But right now, the Vols are playing among or above elite company in both Tennessee and recent SEC history.

A week on the road leads to a week at home: Arkansas on Tuesday, Alabama on Saturday. Kermit Davis and Ole Miss inserting themselves into the SEC title race has done nothing to change the back-ended nature of Tennessee’s schedule: the Vols will finish the season with at LSU, at Ole Miss, vs Kentucky, vs Mississippi State, at Auburn. We get the Cats twice, of course, but otherwise those are the only meetings on the calendar with the rest of that list. Florida returns to Knoxville on February 9.

Long way to go. But so far, lots of fun along the way.

Go Vols.

Tennessee at Florida Preview

Everyone is on the books now in SEC action, and most of the league has played twice. The other teams we believed to be contenders for the SEC Championship – Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, and Mississippi State, all Top 25 in KenPom – have already lost once. Tennessee beat Georgia by 46, then won at Missouri by 24. The Vols are now projected to win the SEC at 14-4 in KenPom. But more than that, the second place team(s) are projected to finish 11-7.

Tennessee, meanwhile, is now fifth nationally in KenPom with a rating of +26.87 (points better than the average team on a neutral floor in 100 possessions). It’s easily the program’s best rating in the 18-year KenPom history. I’ll leave the Ernie & Bernie comparisons to those old enough to have seen both, but otherwise, right now you’ve got statistical backup for, “This is the best Tennessee team I’ve ever seen.”

With that comes an exciting curiosity: now it’s not just if the Vols will win, but can they ascend the blowout ladder? Rebuilding team with a first-year coach, check. Bubble team on the road, check.

What about the Gators? KenPom still only projects the Vols as a two-point favorite in Gainesville, so perhaps we shouldn’t get too greedy. But I’m also not sure this team is done teaching us what greedy actually looks like just yet.

Last Year: After a 9-1 stretch book-ended with victories over Kentucky, the Vols lost two of their next three to fall out of the number one seed conversation. Florida was the return to form: a gritty 62-57 win in Knoxville, which helped us simplify Tennessee’s best basketball to a degree.

This was the game that made us start conversations with, “Does this team have anyone who can guard Grant Williams?” The soon-to-be SEC Player of the Year had 23 points on 8-of-12 shooting and 7-of-8 at the line. A Florida team that found plenty of success leaning on guards Chris Chiozza and KeVaughn Allen had no answer for Williams.

I’m not sure how much that’s changed. The Gators still like putting four guys at 6’5″ and under on the floor with a single big, most often 6’9″ senior Kevarrius Hayes. He’s a good shot-blocker, but he and 6’8″ junior Keith Stone are really the only shot blockers on this team. The Vols remain first in the nation in fewest shots blocked.

Where Florida does make its living is turnovers. The Gators are fifth nationally in defensive efficiency, the Vols fourth in offensive efficiency, which should make this really fun to watch…if Florida has an answer for Williams. Forcing turnovers on 24.6% of opponent possessions (seventh nationally) is a good start. The Gators are 7-2 when forcing 15+ turnovers, 2-3 when they don’t hit that mark.

KeVauhgn Allen is still around, but a pair of freshmen guards – Noah Locke and Andrew Nembhard – are a big part of what they like to do as well. Nembhard is 28th nationally in assist rate, averaging 5.7 per game. Locke is a volume shooter, hitting 42.4% from the arc so far this year.

It’s thankfully the first of two with the Gators this year, who return to Knoxville on February 9 in an already sold out Thompson-Boling. This one will get some national eyeballs – 6:00 PM ET Saturday, ESPN – and represents another big chance for Tennessee to separate themselves from the SEC contenders. We’ll see how much additional separation the Vols can create in Gainesville.

Tennessee 87 Missouri 63: Each Surprise More Pleasant

Isn’t this the game Cuonzo would’ve wanted?

Grant Williams fouled out with four points on 1-of-8 shooting. The Vols lead the nation in assist percentage at 69%. Tonight: only 12 assists on 31 made shots, 38.7%. Missouri made Tennessee beat them with more one-on-one play, and do so without much of anything from its best player.

And…we did. Convincingly. Massively.

Cuonzo remains a Rorschach for Tennessee fans, but what is fact is the way his UT teams played at home against the best competition. His first team beat an Elite Eight Florida squad and lost to Kentucky’s National Championship team by three. His second team saw Marshall Henderson and Ole Miss pull away late for a 92-74 win, but the Vols were within single digits for most of the second half. They beat Wichita State and another Elite Eight Florida squad in Knoxville, plus Kentucky by 30. His final team battled the Gators, undefeated in the SEC, to the final minute in Knoxville.

I’ve never seen a Cuonzo Martin team take a beating like this at home.

If Tennessee can do this, with Grant Williams and effective ball movement handcuffed, to a bubble squad on the road? I’m not sure how many SEC teams on the bubble or below are going to beat the Vols this year. At this point, we get to question how many will even threaten.

When great individual efforts were required tonight, how about Kyle Alexander: 14 points, 17 rebounds, three blocks. Jordan Bowden came off the bench with 20, again. And best of all, Lamonte Turner looked off in his return against Georgia, but not tonight: 3-of-4 from the arc.

Tennessee was favored by seven and won by 24. The good news, in a sense, is the challenge continues to increase: we’re off to Gainesville on Saturday, where the Vols were only favored by one in KenPom before tonight. As was the case after Georgia, I keep trying to remind myself any win is a good win and to appreciate everything about this team. But this team, even outside of what we would consider its best basketball, is giving us far more to appreciate than we thought possible.

Onward and upward. Go Vols.

Tennessee at Missouri Preview

The Vols held on to number three in the AP poll, 18 votes behind Michigan for number two, 10 votes ahead of Virginia at number four. Those three and number one Duke are also the one seeds in the most recent Bracket Matrix. The Cavaliers and Blue Devils will square off on January 19, with the winner there likely to jump or stay ahead of the Vols unless they lose somewhere else. The somewhere else possibilities this week:

  • Duke: at Wake Forest (158 KenPom) Tuesday, at Florida State (20) Saturday
  • Michigan: at Illinois (106) Thursday, vs Northwestern (51) Sunday
  • Virginia: at Boston College (104) Wednesday, at Clemson (36) Saturday

It’s clearly the week to be on the road at the top of the polls: Tennessee is at Missouri tonight, at Florida on Saturday. The game with the Gators gets primetime treatment: 6:00 PM Saturday on ESPN, though a little luster is off with Florida’s loss to South Carolina to open SEC play. But first, the Tigers.

Last Year

Missouri built a 10-point lead with 6:47 to play, then didn’t make another shot…but it was enough. Tennessee shot 5-of-21 from the arc (23.8%) and 8-of-13 (61.5%) from the line, and couldn’t put it together in the final minute while the Tigers finished off a 15-of-17 performance at the line in a 59-55 Missouri win.

The Tigers earned an eight seed in the NCAA Tournament, but were vanquished by Florida State in the opening round. Then they essentially lost their top four scorers with the graduation of Kassius Robertson and Jordan Barnett, Michael Porter Jr. heading to the NBA after appearing in just three games, and then his brother Jontay tore his ACL in a preseason scrimmage.

But this is still a veteran team: Jordan Geist and Kevin Puryear are seniors, Jeremiah Tilmon played 19 minutes a game last year and Mark Smith did the same at Illinois before transferring in.

The Cuonzo Rorschach

…looks about the same as last year to me: unexpectedly playing without the guy they would’ve counted on most, Missouri started slow: 17-point loss at Iowa State, 15-point loss to Kansas State on a neutral floor, two-point home loss to Temple, all in November. But when they get hot, they burn it down: a two-point overtime win over Central Florida sparked the current six-game winning streak, including a 15-point win over Xavier and a 16-point win over Illinois. And, as noted by many, they haven’t played since December 29. There will be some rust to knock off, but I’m sure there will also be a long and detailed scouting report.

The Tigers are 74th in KenPom and 66th in NET. The tempo (327th fastest nationally) and defense (69th in defensive efficiency) are what you’d expect. But a few things do stand out about this match-up:

  • Get dunked on: Jeremiah Tilmon is 6’10” and Kevin Puryear is 6’7″, but the rest of the major contributors on this team are between 6’2″ and 6’4″. Missouri is 311th nationally in shot blocking percentage. That’s bad news, because the Vols are first in the nation in fewest shots blocked.
  • Opponents average just 62.3% at the line against Missouri. It’s totally random, but does represent the sixth-lowest opponent percentage in college basketball. In their current winning streak, Xavier went 12-of-21 (57.1%) and Illinois 7-of-14 (50%). The Vols shoot 74.2% at the line, 52nd nationally; Grant Williams is 12th nationally in fouls drawn per 40 minutes (via KenPom).
  • Mark Smith is the primary shooting threat. After shooting just 23.2% from the arc at Illinois, he’s 30-of-65 (46.2%) this year at Missouri.

It’s the first of two with Missouri this year, with the return match in Knoxville on February 5. Don’t expect everything to resemble a 46-point beat down. Vegas likes the Vols -7.5, KenPom -7. If Tennessee is going to distance themselves from a Cuonzo Martin team, expect them to do so on the defensive end: less viper, more boa constrictor tonight.

7:00 PM ET, ESPN2. Go Vols.

Tennessee 96 Georgia 50: This Was Not Normal

When you carry the number three next to your name, it’s easy for the enjoyable to get a little too normal. You nitpick, you look ahead, etc.

Tennessee was favored by 15 (via KenPom) over Georgia today in the SEC opener, a team Rick Barnes had beaten once – barely, to win the SEC last year – in his tenure in Knoxville. The Dawgs play a bunch of guys and are still trying to figure it out in Tom Crean’s first year, but had won five of six, including a near-miss with Arizona State and an 11-point win at Georgia Tech. There’s no such thing as a bad win in college basketball, especially to open league play. Getting the W is still at the top of the list, but the Vols are also still trying to stay in the chase for number one, in the polls and the bracket. That’s the standard you get to get judged by in the top five.

Today, Tennessee was incredible by any standard. And we should take the opportunity to appreciate it as much as possible.

A 46-point win is one shy of the program record in an SEC game. It’s the fifth 40+ point win in league play for the Vols, but the first since 1979. Georgia’s Derek Ogbeide, in foul trouble immediately, still finished with 17 points on 6-of-9 shooting with six rebounds. The rest of the team? 11-of-44 (25%), 33 points. Georgia was 1-for-20 from the arc.

Tennessee? Eighteen each from PB&J, 20 from Jordan Bowden off the bench, and a 12-14 from Kyle Alexander. The Vols shot just 6-of-18 from the arc and won by 46, thanks to a lethal 28-of-46 (61%) inside the arc, 22-of-26 at the line, +15 in rebounds and a 25-9 assist-turnover ratio. This was a 40-minute (or like 39.5 minute as the Vols held the ball with a chance to get that record) beat down in every way.

The Vols also got Lamonte Turner back, who went 0-for-3 from the arc but still scored six points. His presence and the blowout allowed the Vols to keep everyone under 30 minutes.

In KenPom, the Vols moved from 11th to eighth. Their current rating there – +24.72 (margin of victory vs the average team in 100 possessions) – is now the best in program history. We could find ourselves saying that a lot more often this year. But first…

It’s a trap!

As Rob Lewis pointed out on VolQuest a few days ago, Missouri is next, and the Tigers will be well-rested. Cuonzo’s squad hasn’t played since December 29, and didn’t open SEC play today because they’re not in the SEC/Big 12 Challenge (neither is Auburn or Mississippi State, a big fail by whoever puts these together). So the Tigers will have ten days of preparation for the Vols, who get the short turnaround for a 7:00 PM Tuesday night tip in CoMo. It’s the first of two between the Vols and Tigers; Mizzou won last year 59-55.

Tennessee is only favored by six over the Tigers in KenPom. They won’t all be 46-point wins. But in the midst of what could be a special season, this was a special chapter. We haven’t seen this level of dominance in my lifetime in conference play. That qualifies as a good start.

Go Vols.

Tennessee vs Georgia Preview

When last we met:

It’ll be another sellout, this time to open league play. Thought this was interesting:

Before the split last season, the Vols lost two games (one in the SEC Tournament) to Georgia by three total points in 2017. And in 2016, Georgia won 81-72 in Athens.

Mark Fox is out after nine years, Tom Crean in. The Dawgs made three NIT’s and a one-and-done in the NCAA Tournament from 2014-17, but went 18-15 (7-11) last season, Yante Maten’s last.

This is still a huge team. Rayshaun Hammonds, Nicolas Claxton, and Derek Ogbeide go 6’8″, 6’11”, 6’9″. Like Tennessee, they love blocking shots (18th nationally) and don’t eat many on the other end (24th). Their first-shot defense has been pretty good: teams shoot 29.8% from the arc and 43.1% inside it against them.

But the biggest issue for Georgia has been turnovers. The Dawgs give it away on an astounding 22.4% of their possessions, 319th nationally. Georgia averages 15.7 turnovers per game and forces only 11.3. My math says that’s nearly 4.5 extra possessions for the opposition every night. For a Tennessee team that has struggled to create turnovers so far this year, Georgia should be a welcome sight.

One reason why: this is the longest bench I’ve ever seen. Nine players average double digit minutes, a dozen average six or more. Georgia is playing really fast with a new coach and a bunch of different lineups off the bench, which right now is leading to a bunch of turnovers.

It’ll be interesting to see if Georgia’s defense can slow Tennessee’s offense, but the Vols should have the clear advantage on the other end of the floor. Keep an eye on Tyree Crump, a career 32% shooter from the arc who’s incredibly hot at 43.1% so far this year.

KenPom likes the Vols by 15. That would qualify as a good start to league play. 3:30 PM, SEC Network. Go Vols.

SEC Basketball Preview

Last year the SEC rose from its slumber: after placing three teams in the 2017 Elite Eight, the league sent eight to the dance floor last March. Six won in the first round. And then, disappointment.

No. 3 seed Tennessee lost to No. 11 Loyola-Chicago. No. 4 seed Auburn lost to Clemson by 31 points. Only two SEC teams made it through to the Sweet 16, where No. 5 seed Kentucky lost to No. 9 seed Kansas State, and Texas A&M was routed by Michigan after routing North Carolina in the second round.

In KenPom, the league had no teams in the Top 10 but five ranked between 13-29. No one was special, but plenty were really good. And at the bottom, only Ole Miss was ranked outside the Top 100 (108th).

Entering league play in 2019, the league looks a little better in KenPom: still no one in the Top 10, but five teams between 11-20. The AP voters think even more highly of the league’s best: the Vols are third and receiving first-place votes, Auburn and Kentucky sit at 12 and 13, Mississippi State at 17, and Florida is receiving votes.

Those five look like safe bets for the NCAA Tournament; they’re joined by LSU with a Top 35 NET rating and in the most recent Bracket Matrix:

The Vols and a Number One Seed

At this point, chasing the first No. 1 seed in program history is a reasonable goal. Last year we looked at the records of the last No. 1 seed and all four No. 2 seeds since 2012. Six times in the last seven years, the lowest No. 1 seed either had six or seven losses, or was Gonzaga. Only in 2015 (undefeated Kentucky, 32-2 Villanova, 31-3 Wisconsin, 29-4 Duke) have we seen four truly elite No. 1 seeds.

Tennessee already has a leg up on Gonzaga via head-to-head; keep an eye on Nevada at 13-0, but right now the Vols are on pace to be in this conversation all year. KenPom projects Tennessee to win the SEC at 13-5, which would send the Vols to the SEC Tournament at 25-6. Tennessee is one of seven power conference teams projected to go to their conference tournament with between four and seven losses. We’ll see if anyone can separate themselves from the pack, but matching last year’s 13-5 SEC run could be enough to both win the league and get a one seed.

Something else to keep an eye on for the NCAA Tournament: the closest first-and-second-round venue is Columbia, SC. That will also be the closest option for any ACC Champion from North Carolina or Virginia. The bigger prize: the regional final in Louisville. Those same ACC teams would prefer Washington DC, and the Jayhawks would love Kansas City. So you might want to keep an eye on Big Ten teams like Michigan who would also prefer Louisville. The Final Four is in Minneapolis, if you’re into 14-hour drives.

What to Expect From the SEC

Rebuilding/Reloading:

  • South Carolina (5-7, 126 KenPom) – Somehow Chris Silva is still in school, but the Gamecocks have losses to Stony Brook, Providence, Wofford, and Wyoming, plus Michigan and Virginia.
  • Georgia (8-4, 108 KenPom) – Tom Crean’s first team is 319th in turnovers and 310th in turnovers forced.
  • Texas A&M (6-5, 97 KenPom) – A 15-point loss to Texas Southern ended a five-game winning streak after a 1-4 start. The Aggies are one of the worst three-point shooting teams in the country (29.1%).

The Bubble:

  • Missouri (9-3, 72 KenPom) – It’s what you expect from Cuonzo: 322nd in tempo, early struggles against Iowa State, Kansas State, and Temple, but now on a six-game win streak including UCF and Xavier. The Tigers have also benefited from teams shooting just 62.3% from the free throw line against them. Appearing in 2.8% of the Bracket Matrix.
  • Alabama (9-3, 63 KenPom) – Losses to Northeastern and Georgia State, but wins over five Top 100 teams. 6’7″ sophomore Herbert Jones is 34th nationally in free throw rate, and Donta Hall is 28th in true shooting percentage. Appearing in 8.6% of the Bracket Matrix.
  • Vanderbilt (9-3, 59 KenPom) – Lost freshman Darius Garland for the year to a knee injury, but fellow freshman Simi Shittu has done a nice job picking up the slack from the post. The names you know and love are gone (Fisher-Davis, LaChance, Roberson), but these guys are young and get after it inside the arc on both ends. Double-digit losses to NC State and Kansas State, a double-digit win over Arizona State. Bracket Matrix next four out.
  • Arkansas (9-3, 57 KenPom) – Three losses by seven total points to Georgia Tech, Western Kentucky, and Texas in overtime. A one-point win over Indiana is currently their only selling point. Still fast (47th in tempo), but actually more efficient on the defensive end this year. Appearing in 11.4% of the Bracket Matrix.
  • Ole Miss (10-2, 47 KenPom) – The biggest mystery in the league entering conference play. Kermit Davis’s first team lost to Butler and Cincinnati but beat Baylor and San Diego, all in November. In December they went 6-0 against teams rated between 173-301 in KenPom. At Vanderbilt to open league play on Saturday, then play Auburn and Mississippi State the following week, so we’re about to find out a lot more about them. Bracket Matrix first four out.

Might Be Contenders, Might Be On the Bubble

  • LSU (10-3, 40 KenPom) – Will Wade’s team has neutral-site losses to Oklahoma State and Florida State in overtime, plus a six-point loss at Houston. They beat Saint Mary’s on December 15. Much like Tennessee, their SEC schedule is extremely back-loaded: they won’t play any of the next tier until February. Third nationally in steals. Bracket Matrix nine seed.

The Contenders

  • Mississippi State (12-1, 20 KenPom) – It might have taken Ben Howland one more year than Rick Barnes to get them here, but they’re here: a five-point loss to Arizona State on a neutral floor is the only blemish, but they have six wins over Top 100 teams, including a pair of 11-point wins over Clemson and Cincinnati and a 23-point beat down of BYU last time out. Eighteenth in offensive efficiency, 19th in effective FG%, 21st in offensive rebounding percentage. The Brothers Weatherspoon are doing their thing, and point guard Lamar Peters is 13th nationally in assist rate. Bracket Matrix five seed.
  • Florida (8-4, 17 KenPom) – A 21-point loss to Florida State in the opener put them on most people’s back burner. Then they lost close games to Oklahoma, Butler, and Michigan State. But they beat West Virginia by 10, and in a rematch with Butler they won 77-43 (!). KeVaughn Allen is still around, and the Gators are sixth nationally in KenPom defense. We’re in Gainesville on January 12. Bracket Matrix ten seed, but 31.4% of brackets haven’t updated since that beat down of Butler.
  • Kentucky (10-2, 13 KenPom) – Got run over by Duke in the opener, and lost to Seton Hall in overtime. Throw in Quade Green’s transfer, and plenty were hitting the panic button. But the Cats beat North Carolina and won at Louisville by 13. Stanford transfer Reid Travis gives them an unusual veteran presence, and PJ Washington is back too. Freshman Keldon Johnson is shooting 43.2% from the arc. Bracket Matrix five seed.
  • Auburn (11-2, 12 KenPom) – Bruce Pearl’s team is first in the nation in forcing turnovers, first in shot-blocking, and fifth in offensive rebounding percentage. This is now a veteran team, and a healthy one at that: Austin Wiley, Jared Harper, Bryce Brown, Chuma Okeke, and Anfernee McLemore all play their roles well. There’s a six-point loss to Duke and a seven-point loss to NC State, but Pearl still knows how to schedule: wins over Washington, Xavier, Arizona, Dayton, UAB, and Murray State. These guys are plenty tested and plenty good. We’ll only see them once, on the last day of the regular season. Bracket Matrix three seed.
  • Tennessee (11-1, 11 KenPom) – Where do the Vols stand out, other than an overtime loss to Kansas and a win over then-#1 Gonzaga? Tennessee is sixth in KenPom offense and first in the nation in fewest shots blocked. The Vols are good at some of the same stuff from last year – second nationally in assist rate, same cast of characters – but are much improved inside the arc, now 13th nationally in two-point field goal percentage. Lamonte Turner’s health remains a question. The Vols play Florida twice (Jan. 12 and Feb. 9), but don’t face any of the rest of this tier or LSU until February 16. The top No. 2 seed in the Bracket Matrix.

Where Can The Vols Improve?

With apologies to our friends from Cookeville, I’m not sure how much is left to learn about the Vols entering conference play. Tomorrow, Tennessee hosts Tennessee Tech: 330th in KenPom, where the Vols are projected to win by 30. From there, we begin at last season’s end: Georgia comes to Knoxville next Saturday to open SEC play.

There’s plenty of consternation about the #3 Vols not being #2 this week, but the Vols already cleared the biggest hurdle to getting to #1 by beating Gonzaga. The rigors of conference play offer plenty of opportunities for Duke, Michigan, and Virginia to stumble, which would not have been the case for the Zags.

Tennessee’s rigors are extraordinarily back-ended this season. Right now there are six SEC teams in the KenPom Top 50, led by the Vols at #11. Tennessee plays Florida (KenPom #27) on January 12 and February 9. Every other match-up with the top of the SEC is in the last seven games:

  • 2/16 at Kentucky (KenPom #15)
  • 2/19 vs Vanderbilt (#62)
  • 2/23 at LSU (#41)
  • 2/27 at Ole Miss (#54)
  • 3/02 vs Kentucky (#15)
  • 3/05 vs Mississippi State (#23)
  • 3/09 at Auburn (#13)

If form holds, a significant chunk of the argument for or against Tennessee will be made down the stretch. Before then, and before the grind of league play begins, here are two ways the Vols can improve:

Create Turnovers

Last year defense was Tennessee’s calling card: sixth in KenPom defensive efficiency and 14th in effective FG% allowed. The offense was good – 36th in KenPom – but the Vols were winning with defense.

This year, the script has flipped: Tennessee is eighth nationally in offense, a number I’m not sure many of us thought the Vols could get to. Meanwhile the defense is good – 31st in KenPom – but hasn’t been Tennessee’s ace card.

Some of the numbers are down, but not alarmingly so: the Vols are still 38th in effective FG% allowed, 63rd in three-point percentage allowed, and continue to excel at shot blocking (38th). The biggest difference so far this year? Last year Tennessee created a turnover on 20.4% of opponent possessions, 53rd nationally. This year? Just 17.9% of opponent possessions, 238th nationally.

The Vols averaged 14.9 turnovers forced in the first seven games, including 16 from Kansas. But in the last four games, the Vols forced only 40 turnovers, including a possession-heavy affair with Memphis.

This leads us to…

Lamonte Turner gets healthy (or the Vols grow playing small ball without him)

I’m still not exactly sure what this means:

Turner, last season’s SEC Sixth Man of the Year, is definitely a component of Tennessee’s best basketball. He’s best known for the big-shot quality that helped the Vols beat Purdue and Kentucky last season; Tennessee clearly has that in Admiral Schofield and the reigning SEC Player of the Year Grant Williams, but Turner provided it in Tennessee’s back court.

But something we may have underestimated about not only Turner, but the graduation of James Daniel: Tennessee can’t pressure opposing guards with the same efficiency right now.

Some of it is just math: the Vols are playing a glorified seven-man rotation right now, getting 32+ minutes from Bone, Schofield, and Williams. Bone only played 23 minutes last year, Schofield and Williams 28. Throw in recurring issues with foul trouble, and your defense has to be a little more tentative (and the offense has been good enough to make up the difference).

But without Turner, the Vols are leaning heavily on Bone and Jordan Bowden in the traditional guard role. Yves Pons is clearly a disruptor, but trails only John Fulkerson in fouls per 40 minutes. The longer Turner is out, the more important Jalen Johnson becomes. He didn’t play at all in Brooklyn when Turner briefly returned, but since then he’s averaged nine minutes per game.

Remember, Tennessee’s most frequent lineup at the end of last season put Bone, Bowden, and Turner on the floor together with Schofield and Williams. We’re all glad to see Kyle Alexander carrying a heavier load this year, but the Vols really haven’t put anything resembling that three-guard small-ball lineup on the floor (Bone, Bowden, Johnson plus two forwards and no Alexander).

Again: Tennessee is ranked third, beat Gonzaga and went to overtime with Kansas on neutral floors. We’re plenty capable. But there’s still room to grow on the defensive end, with or without Lamonte Turner’s return.