If you’re looking for the best single performance from the last Tennessee team to reach number one, may I suggest the first meeting between the Vols and Commodores.
#6 Tennessee and #16 Vanderbilt met in Knoxville on January 17, 2008, more than a month before the Vols would eventually go to number one. The win that got them there was of obvious merit, beating #1 Memphis 66-62. But if you really wanted to see what the 2008 Vols could do, look to that first Vanderbilt game: an 80-60 blowout, featuring 18 points and 18 rebounds from Wayne Chism. It was a level-up game for #4, more proof he could also be the lead dog on a team with plenty of alpha in Chris Lofton, JaJuan Smith, and Tyler Smith (who added 14 and 9 just for good measure). Vanderbilt shot 3-of-21 from the arc, missed 10 free throws, and turned it over 22 times.
All of that made it easy to forget they were still a Top 20 team when we ran into them the second time around.
The Vols won at Memphis in a 9:00 PM Saturday night tip, then played at #18 Vanderbilt in a 9:00 PM Tuesday tip. The Commodores raced to a 23-9 lead, but Tennessee got it back within three at halftime. The shooting made the longest memories – 32 points from Shan Foster, 25 from Chris Lofton – but going back through the box score and recap at ESPN.com, you find 51 total fouls and 69 total free throw attempts. Down the stretch, Tennessee could not defend without fouling, allowing Vanderbilt to always stay two possessions ahead. The Commodores won 72-69, chasing Tennessee off the number one ranking and, more costly, eventually off the number one seed line.
That Vanderbilt team was a four seed in the NCAA Tournament, their 26 wins the most in Kevin Stallings’ 17 years in Nashville. And in the tournament…they lost to Siena in the first round by 21.
Still: this Vanderbilt team is not that Vanderbilt team.
This Vanderbilt Team
Everything has to start with Darius Garland. The five-star freshman point guard was the 14th-highest rated player in the nation coming in from 247, and the second point guard behind Kentucky’s Ashton Hagans (who is playing like it right now). He injured his knee in the fifth game of the year and was lost for the season. The most recent NBA mock draft I can find still has him going seventh overall. It’s a huge loss.
Whatever momentum Vanderbilt gained by an 81-65 win over Arizona State on December 17 has evaporated in an 0-5 start to league play. They lost to Ole Miss by 10, Georgia by 19, Kentucky by nine, South Carolina by three, and Mississippi State by 16. In conference games the ‘Dores rank 13th in offensive efficiency and 11th in defensive efficiency (via KenPom); Tennessee is number one in both.
By the way, is anyone winning the Kevin Stallings-Vanderbilt divorce? Bryce Drew’s first team was the first in history to earn an at-large bid with 15 losses, then lost an 8-9 game to Northwestern by two points. That team graduated Luke Kornet, but brought back Matthew Fisher-Davis, Riley LaChance, and Jeff Roberson for their senior seasons in 2018. Fisher-Davis was lost for the year in mid-January, but Vandy was already 6-11 (1-4) at the time. They finished 12-20 (6-12). His 2018 recruiting class was ranked 13th nationally, but now without Garland they’re headed toward another sub-.500 year. Stallings, of course, went 16-17 (4-14) then 8-24 (0-18) at Pitt and was done.
Also, Vanderbilt’s luck ratings in KenPom since 2015: 345, 346, 292, 336, and currently 316.
If you want to stay on the right side of luck tonight, don’t put this team on the line. The Commodores are ninth in the nation in free throw rate. Their particular strengths here are Saben Lee, who runs the point in Garland’s absence, and Simi Shittu, an even-higher-rated 6’10” freshman who sees the ball a ton.
Vandy defends the three well in conference play, and doesn’t turn it over a ton. An early whistle going against the Vols is the quickest way the Commodores stay in this game. As Tennessee seeks to improve its defense overall, defending without fouling is a good place to start: the Vols are 226th nationally in opponent free throw rate.
But if it doesn’t happen at the line, it’s tough to see it happening for Vanderbilt. They’re giving up 55.7% from inside the arc in league play, and Tennessee’s offense has become a monster in that department. And last year Grant Williams had 37 in Nashville and 18 more in Knoxville, and attempted 15 free throws in each game. They had no answer for him last year, and I’m not sure one has presented itself this year. Vanderbilt should be a welcome match-up for Williams after facing Alabama.
Anybody can get up to play the number one team in the nation, and Vanderbilt can always get up to play Tennessee. And we won’t know exactly how the Vols will play with that #1 next to their name until we see it. But when you’re 0-5 in league play, you can also catch a case of the oh-no’s real quick. The 2008 Vols peaked just before Nashville. Let’s hope the 2019 version is just getting started.
7:00 PM ET, ESPN2. Go Vols.
Step 1: Play them when they’re less good.
Step 2: ?
Step 3: Profit!
Turns out Step 2 was some combo of get a questionable call in your favor, have an otherworldly performance from your star, and survive by the skin of your teeth.