Tennessee vs Arkansas Preview

Here’s what I wrote Monday afternoon:

Tennessee’s quest for #1 takes a backseat this week: #1 Duke and #4 Virginia play Saturday in Durham (6:00 PM ET ESPN), and the winner will almost certainly be ranked ahead of the Vols next Monday. That’s a 1 vs 2 showdown in KenPom; it’s exciting just for a game of that magnitude to be relevant to the Vols. Before we get there, Duke played Syracuse on Monday, and there’s a showdown in the Commonwealth tonight between the Cavaliers and #9 Virginia Tech in Charlottesville. Meanwhile #2 Michigan is off midweek, then travels to Wisconsin (14th KenPom) on Saturday. It’ll be interesting to see how the polls and the bracket matrix shake out after this week.

…and then Duke lost to Syracuse, and lost point guard Tre Jones to a shoulder injury.

So now, if Duke bounces back against Virginia and Michigan falls at Wisconsin? The Vols could get to number one on Monday. Tennessee already had more first-place votes than any other team but Duke. Turns out this isn’t a backseat week after all.

The Vols get the reward of a week in Knoxville after trips to Missouri and Florida last week, and will spend it with more of the bubble. Alabama comes calling Saturday, currently the first team out in the matrix. But first, Arkansas.

Last Year: The Agony & The Ecstasy

Most of Tennessee’s losses last year qualified as frustrating; that’s what happens when you win the SEC. North Carolina in the final minutes, Auburn with their bajillion offensive rebounds, the streak-busting blowout at Alabama, plus narrow defeats at Missouri and Georgia. And then there were painful losses in March: to Kentucky in the SEC Tournament finals, and of course to Sister Jean.

But the one that made me want to punch a wall was Arkansas.

Up nine with 3:53 left, a flurry of foul-outs and turnovers allowed Arkansas to get the game to overtime, where more of the same led to a 95-93 Razorback victory. The loss dropped Tennessee to 9-3, 0-1 to open league play.

The rematch, however, was Tennessee’s best game of the season.

In the SEC Tournament semifinals, the Vols shot 57% from the floor, 11-of-17 (64.7%) from the arc, and 85% from the line. Tennessee buried the Hogs 84-66, an exclamation point on a 16-3 run after starting league play 0-2.

Be careful with this team

Arkansas doesn’t look like a great team on paper at 10-5 (1-2), 55th in KenPom. Their best win is over Indiana, which has lost a little luster with the Hoosiers dropping two straight.

But the five losses? Texas by two in overtime, Western Kentucky by one, Georgia Tech by four, Florida by six, LSU by six in overtime. The Hogs are really close to looking a whole lot better.

What probably makes Arkansas fans want to punch a wall: their free throw shooting. In four of those losses:

• Texas: 13-of-24 (54.2%)
• Western Kentucky: 9-of-16 (56.3%)
• Florida: 15-of-26 (57.7%)
• LSU: 17-of-28 (60.7%)

The Hogs are literally a few free throws away from being 14-1.

Their guards really hurt us in the first meeting last year, but this team plays through Daniel Gafford. The 6’11” sophomore had 27 in the win over Indiana and just put 32 on LSU. The weakness here, as you can guess: foul him. Gafford shot 52.8% at the line last year, 58% so far this season. He’s had plenty of experience, ranking 22nd nationally in fouls drawn per 40 minutes (via KenPom). The alternative: Gafford is 102-of-155 from the field this year, 83rd nationally.

The rest of the lineup is new after those guards – Barford, Beard, and Macon – all graduated. Mason Jones continues the three-point shooting threat, New Mexico transfer Jalen Harris runs the point, and freshmen Isaiah Joe and Reggie Chaney log plenty of minutes.

It’s the Arkansas DNA you know and love – 41st nationally in tempo – with an emphasis on getting to the free throw line beyond just Gafford, despite their poor shooting there. Because the Hogs want to get up and go, they’re susceptible on the offensive glass. But they’ve also been really good at forcing turnovers, as Florida was, and teams are shooting just 29.9% from the arc against them. The free throw numbers are significant, but they don’t really beat themselves otherwise.

Tennessee, as we’ve seen, is playing at an elite level. So we can make this whole argument about the Hogs being a bubble team a few free throws away from the Top 25…and the Vols can still be favored by 15 in KenPom.

7:00 PM, ESPN2. To stay in the number one conversation even when the nation’s eyeballs are elsewhere this week? Keep winning, keep playing well.

Go Vols.