Author Archives: Will Shelton

Context is king, but it’s hard to find after this one my friends.

But let’s start here: back in August, we looked at the best and worst surprises for the Vols in the post-Fulmer era. We used Vegas as the measuring stick: what were Tennessee’s most noteworthy performances playing above and below the line at kickoff?

The four worst surprises have come in the last four years: losing by 33 to Missouri in 2018 at +5.5, getting shutout 41-0 by Georgia in 2017 (+10), losing to Georgia State as a 24.5-point favorite, bottoming out with last year’s Kentucky debacle at -6.5.

So how much, we wondered, could a good surprise be worth for Josh Heupel?

Turns out, that looks like today:

Year	Opponent	Line	Outcome	Difference
2021	at Missouri	+2.5	62-24	40.5
2010	Ole Miss	-2.5	52-14	35.5
2015	vs Northwestern	-9.5	45-6	29.5
2014	Utah State	-3.5	38-7	27.5
2009	Georgia	+1	45-19	27

It’s a fun comparison, that 2010 Ole Miss game. That was freshman Tyler Bray’s second start, and the first against someone other than 1-11 Memphis. That Ole Miss team ultimately wasn’t much good either, but the Vols were only -2.5 at kickoff with the Rebels 4-5 coming in.

And that’s the biggest difference from today: that game happened on November 13, the Vols scrambling and, on that day, dominating en route to bowl eligibility. This is October 2. We already knew the rhythm of this season would be different than the other year ones we’ve seen recently due to the schedule, and the presence of multiple toss-ups early.

But now we’re feeling some feelings both rare and in a hurry.

Of additional historical note today, via the media guide:

• 35 first downs ties the school record (UGA 97, Troy 2012, South Carolina 2014).
• If the Vols had punched it in on the final drive of the first half, they would’ve tied the school record for points in a half (49 vs Louisiana-Monroe in 2000).
• Tiyon Evans’ 92-yard touchdown run is the third-longest in school history.

On Missouri’s second drive, the Tigers converted 3rd-and-8, 3rd-and-9, and 2nd-and-17. They only got three points, but it felt like a missed opportunity to build on an early 7-0 lead. But the Vol offense immediately responded with 75 yards in seven plays. Four plays later was Evans’ 92-yard run. And somewhere in there, Missouri started looking like they wished they were somewhere else.

Tennessee ran 18 plays for 263 yards and 28 points before they faced a single third down. Then they converted that one for a 35-yard touchdown to Velus Jones on 3rd-and-12. And then, and then, and then.

There’s winning, then there’s blowing someone out, and then there’s today.

And it was today: week five, year one.

Who knows where such things are headed; that year one moment for Tyler Bray and Derek Dooley ultimately led to a lot of close losses in year three. There’s no proof available so soon. But I do know it’s better to be Josh Heupel in year one right now than Eli Drinkwitz in year two. Like 40.5 points above the spread better.

I also know the Vols now have a chance next Saturday to put the bowl eligibility conversation aside for an entire month. Beat South Carolina in Knoxville, and you’re at four wins. And you close with South Alabama and Vanderbilt. The path to success in year one is much more clear today. Win next week, and we get to test the ceiling again for a bit.

That’ll come. For now, the word of the day is surprise. And as long as we’ve been trying to put this thing back together, we’ve never seen one quite as pleasant as today.

Go Vols.

Our community expected win total lands at 5.92 this week. Through four weeks of the season, Tennessee has been incredibly steady as it relates to expectations. The biggest difference we’ve seen in expected win totals was losing a 50/50 game to Pittsburgh:

In our three games vs FBS competition, the Vols have come within six points of the line:

• -37 vs Bowling Green; won by 32
• +3.5 vs Pittsburgh; lost by 7
• +18 at Florida; lost by 24

“Predictable” would not have been your word of choice coming into this season, for a million reasons. But a third of the way through the regular season, the Vols are a lot of who we thought they’d be. And that’s a good thing, considering we tend to think a little more highly of our teams as Week 1 approaches.

Josh Heupel’s first team continues to follow a path that was largely unavailable to his predecessors. Jeremy Pruitt’s year one Vols in 2018 caught a ranked West Virginia squad in the opener, then Florida, Georgia, Auburn, and Alabama in a row. November would be the month they had their chances, we thought.

Butch Jones’ 2013 squad faced what still might be the toughest schedule in school history, playing seven Top 20 (and six Top 11) teams from September 14-November 9. Other than Austin Peay, Western Kentucky, and South Alabama, the Vols were underdogs every Saturday until they played Vanderbilt and Kentucky to finish.

Derek Dooley’s Vols had the same problem, never facing a one-possession line until November. That 2010 group knew it might face a 2-6 start with a chance to finish 6-6, and that’s exactly what they did.

Pruitt and Jones were able to score the big upset, and Dooley almost did at LSU. Pruitt’s Vols beat Auburn on October 13, Jones’ Vols beat South Carolina on October 19, and Dooley’s Vols had LSU the first time the game ended on October 2. It’s been the month for year one magic, real and almost.

Josh Heupel’s season has already faced a different set of challenges with a true toss-up in Week 2, where the Vols left feeling okay about themselves with a seven-point loss despite three turnovers and 13 penalties. But instead of running the SEC gauntlet early and getting those wins back late, Heupel’s Vols now enter their most crucial stretch of the season. Another 50/50 game, this time at Missouri. A chance to be a home favorite in the SEC, non-Vanderbilt division, against South Carolina. And the most realistic big upset opportunity left on the table against Ole Miss.

The Vols have two wins in the bag, and we assume two more at the end of the season from South Alabama and Vanderbilt. Good news about those two being there: you literally can’t look past them. In between, the Vols need two more wins to secure bowl eligibility. The best and most important chance to get one should be next week against South Carolina, a program also starting over. That would leave either at Missouri, or at Kentucky left: split those and beat the Gamecocks, and you’re home. So while it’s not a necessary win, tomorrow is a tremendous opportunity to get ahead of the curve.

In this regard too, optimism has increased since the season opener. In the week leading up to Bowling Green, our readers gave the Vols a 44.2% chance to win at Missouri. This week, despite Tennessee’s loss at Florida and uncertainty surrounding the health of Hendon Hooker, our readers give the Vols a 52% chance to get it done in CoMo. The Tigers only beat Central Michigan by 10, then lost a pair of high-scoring games by a touchdown to Kentucky and at Boston College. There’s still plenty of time for a year two ascent under Eli Drinkwitz, it just hasn’t happened yet.

We’ll spend plenty of time talking about Lane Kiffin in a couple of weeks, but so far Josh Heupel’s year one path again most closely resembles his. A should’ve-been-different loss to a mid-tier non-conference foe. A that-wasn’t-as-bad-as-we-thought loss at Florida. And now, another opportunity in a toss-up game.

Kiffin’s Vols needed one more Saturday to bear fruit: on October 3, they lost to Auburn 26-22 in Neyland Stadium. We may be in for another Saturday with thin margins tomorrow. But so far, these Vols have been about what we thought, with plenty of opportunity left to become what we hoped.

Go Vols.

The thing Tennessee was worst at last season was allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 68.2% of their passes, 125th of 127 teams that played. After Emory Jones went 21-of-27, we’re not seeing grand improvement in this category: opposing quarterbacks have now hit 64% of their passes against the Vols this season, 103rd nationally.

But here again, one difference is glaring: last season those quarterbacks hit 68% of their passes at a whopping 8.5 yards per attempt, 110th nationally. So far this season, QBs are hitting 64% of their passes, but for only 6.1 yards per attempt, 26th nationally.

In short: the Vols are doing a good job keeping everything in front of them.

There are lots of stats that will be affected by Tennessee’s pace of play, which increases the total number of snaps for both teams. One, perhaps, is this: opponents have completed 38 passes of 10+ yards against the Vol defense, 98th nationally (all data from SportSource Analytics). But through four games, opponents have landed only one 40+ yard pass play, putting UT in a tie for 18th nationally.

Shout out to this preview from Nate Edwards at Rock M Nation for a stat I hadn’t seen: the Vol defense is fifth nationally in forcing three-and-outs. Tennessee is really good at getting off the field early. But when they don’t, it’s a lot of bending and, so far, very little breaking. One key place for improvement: the end of drives. Opponents have scored on all 13 red zone trips (that’s 100%, kids), with 9 touchdowns in 13 appearances (69.23%, 93rd nationally).

There is an imbalance throughout. The Vols are particularly good at snuffing out the run and blowing up screens: 8.5 tackles per loss per game is good for seventh nationally (aided, again, by pace of play). But the Vols have just nine sacks in four games, four of them against Tennessee Tech.

And, of course: the defense has created a single turnover all year that didn’t come against TTU. One turnover in FBS competition is good for 120th nationally.

Tim Banks and company have done a great job forcing three-and-outs, and a great job keeping teams away from the big play when a drive does advance. The Vols, of course, will need to create something more on the back end of drives, whether through red zone stops or forcing more turnovers. If bend-but-don’t-break is the plan, the defense is absolutely living up to it. I’ll be curious to see just how far it can take them.

So, this is a much less reliable week because we’re unsure of the situation at quarterback, at least until Josh Heupel speaks today at noon. And, if it’s like last week, we’re not likely to know who’s going to start against Missouri until kickoff.

If it’s not Hendon Hooker, that should only be due to injury. But head injuries don’t all behave alike, and Tennessee obviously should take all the necessary precautions with him.

You can let us know in the comments how you filled out your total this week as it relates to who would be playing quarterback.

Elsewhere this week:

• You always get a mixed bag when future opponents face each other, so what are we taking away from Kentucky’s 16-10 win over South Carolina? The Cats are 4-0, but get the Gators this week. South Carolina has an opportunity to right themselves against Troy before coming to Knoxville next Saturday.
• Right now, the Vols have four past or future opponents in the Top 12 of the AP Poll. We’ll learn a lot more about Alabama, Georgia, and especially Ole Miss this week.
• The game that had the biggest potential to move the needle last week did: Missouri lost at Boston College in overtime. Last week, fans gave the Vols a 45.9% chance of winning in Columbia. Does that drift closer to 50% after their loss on Saturday?

In the weeks leading up to the season the last two years, we’ve put Tennessee’s outlook into tiers based on SP+ projections. Leading up to 2020, for instance, the most common comparisons were Tennessee teams you felt like had a realistic chance to have a shot every game. For this year, there was the hope of progress, and the idea that the Vols might not get blown out so often.

Tennessee’s final margin last night was 24 points, twice as many as what we saw in this match-up last year. But no one would argue which game was more competitive: last year Florida built a three-possession lead five plays and 75 yards into the third quarter, and the Vols didn’t score again until there were only five minutes left in the game, then down 31-7. So yes, the outcome was two possessions, but the experience was mostly non-competitive.

Last night, not only did the Vols build a 14-10 lead in the second quarter (and follow it up with a stop). But Tennessee had 4th-and-5 at the Florida 30 with six minutes to play in the third quarter, down 24-14. The drop by Jimmy Calloway was indeed crushing, turning what could’ve been a 24-21 game into a change in possession.

Tennessee also got Florida in 1st-and-20 a minute later, but couldn’t hold as the Gators converted 3rd-and-3, then 3rd-and-1 for a touchdown. The game went to three possessions with two minutes to play in the third quarter; Florida tacked on one more in the fourth.

But by this metric, Tennessee was in the game – ahead, tied, or behind by 1-2 possessions – for 43 of the game’s 60 minutes, or 72% of the outcome. And in this manner, the Vols showed immediate improvement.

In the last three years against the Gators:

• 2018: A safety and a 65-yard touchdown pass on the very next snap turned a 14-3 game into a 23-3 hole with 11 minutes to play in the second quarter. The Vols were in this game for 19 minutes.
• 2019: Florida scored on 4th-and-goal at the 1 on the final play of the second quarter for a 17-0 lead. Brian Maurer got the Vols downfield for three to open the third, but Florida answered with 75 yards in six plays to push it back to three possessions, and the Vols didn’t score again. Tennessee was technically in this game for 32 minutes, but failed to score a touchdown in 60.
• 2020: The Florida score to open the third quarter means the Vols were likewise in this game for 32 minutes.

Comparisons to Georgia and Alabama are increasingly unfair, but in the last administration, consider how quickly they built three-possession leads:

• 2018 Georgia: Dawgs up 17-0 on the last drive of the second quarter. Tennessee scored twice to get it back within 24-12 with 11 minutes to play, but Georgia ground us to death with a 13-play drive requiring nothing more than 3rd-and-4 to make it three scores again. Vols were in this game for 38 minutes.
• 2018 Alabama: Tua Tagovailoa hit Jaylen Waddle for 77 yards on the first play of Alabama’s third drive for the Tide’s third touchdown. Tennessee was in this game for all of seven minutes.
• 2019 Georgia: The one most similar to last night: Brian Maurer hit a big play and made a great throw to give the Vols a 14-10 lead early in the second quarter. Tennessee didn’t score again, but did have 1st-and-10 at midfield down 29-14 before throwing an interception, then stopped Georgia on fourth down but went three-and-out. The Dawgs made it three possessions with 8:02 to play in the fourth, putting Tennessee in this one for 52 minutes.
• 2019 Alabama: You know this one. Down 21-10 at the half, the Vols cut it to 21-13 in the third quarter. Bama responded with six, then the teams traded three-and-outs. The Vols had 4th-and-goal at the 1 with 7:21 to play when Jarrett Guarantano fumbled and Alabama ran it back for a touchdown. So the Vols were in this one for 52 minutes too.
• 2020 Georgia: Vols led 21-17 at halftime, then all Georgia. The Dawgs made it 16 points with 10:30 to go in the fourth, then scoop-and-scored to make it three possessions thirty seconds later. The Vols were in it for 50 minutes, but obviously it only felt like 30.
• 2020 Alabama: A second quarter score made it 21-3, but the Vols did answer with six. Bama was right back to work in five plays and 75 yards. The Vols were in this one for 24 minutes.

By this metric, Josh Heupel’s debut in a rivalry game was Tennessee’s best performance against the Gators in four years. And I’d put it on the list with the Brian Maurer Georgia game, the 2019 Alabama game until JG’s fumble, and the first half in Athens last year as one of Tennessee’s better performances in any rivalry game of the last three years.

This is, of course, no ultimate prize. But the Vols looked more coherent, longer, with fewer familiar faces. The game plan made sense on both sides of the ball. And so too, for now, did the outcome.

Tennessee moves to its most important stretch now, and will do so with continued uncertainty about the health of its quarterbacks. The Vols are +3 at Missouri, a virtual toss-up on a neutral field. The success of 2021 will rise and fall quite a bit between now and the next time we see one of our biggest rivals.

But for the long-term success of the program…last night was a decent step in the right direction, especially considering how many coaches have tried to take that first step over the last dozen years. There’s a lot left to learn. But not only could it have been a lot worse, it has been before. And there were signs that, perhaps, it might get better.

Go Vols.

Our community expected win total creeps back over six this week. Using our GRT Expected Win Total Machine, we’ve got Tennessee’s projected regular season win total at 6.06 this week. That’s up from 5.94 last week, which followed 6.74 in preseason and 6.60 after Bowling Green.

Even if the Vols fall on Saturday, we may see next week’s total stay north of 5.5 wins. Tennessee’s path to bowl eligibility won’t be threatened tomorrow night; only the fast-forward button is at stake.

This week our community gives the Vols a 19.9% chance against the Gators, down from 22.7% last weekend before they almost got the Tide. That’s down a hair from the 23% chance SP+ gives the Vols, which is, incidentally, Tennessee’s winning percentage since this rivalry’s been played annually the last 31 years.

SP+ provided one of the best data points coming out of the Tennessee Tech game: the Vols now boast a Top 10 special teams unit, and a Top 25 defense (19.6 defensive SP+ rating, good for 21st nationally). Tennessee’s defense made a lengthy climb in this department two years ago, going from the Georgia State debacle to a 7-1 finish. Take out the loss to Alabama in that latter stretch, and no team scored more than 22 points in those seven Tennessee wins. The 2019 defense finished the year 19th in SP+, the program’s highest rating since the 2015 group finished 13th.

That group was led by seniors at every level, from Darrell Taylor to Daniel Bituli to Nigel Warrior. This Tennessee defense has been led largely by a cast of characters we don’t really know well. Through three games Theo Jackson leads the team with a ridiculous 8.33 tackles per game; if he kept that pace all year it would be the best season at Tennessee since A.J. Johnson in 2013. Jackson joins lots of other names in the secondary we’ve heard before, but never with such enthusiasm. There are intriguing possibilities, old and new, on the defensive line.

And even in the middle of the field – where the Vols struggled more than anywhere else last year in a season defined by struggle – there are signs of hope.

The Vols allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 68.2% of their passes last season, 125th of 127 teams who played in 2020. It hasn’t been a total turnaround so far: the Vols are 74th in that stat after holding Tennessee Tech to 47.2%. But in the one live fire test we’ve seen, there were a couple of key differences.

Kenny Pickett went 24-of-36 (66.7%) against the Vols, joining four quarterbacks from last season who completed at least two-thirds of their passes against UT on at least 20 attempts. But you’ll note the improvement:

QB	Year	CMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	YPA
Kenny Pickett	2021	24	36	66.7%	285	7.9
Mac Jones	2020	25	31	80.6%	387	12.5
Felipe Franks	2020	18	24	75.0%	215	9
Kyle Trask	2020	35	49	71.4%	433	8.8
Kellen Mond	2020	26	32	81.3%	281	8.8

It may not have been great against Pickett, but it was a step in the right direction by comparison, in both completion percentage and yards per attempt. The Vols were very bad at this last year. I don’t know how many games just being…maybe below average at it now will win.

But if you’re looking for real progress: last year the Vols were 114th nationally in third down conversions allowed, giving up 47.62% on the year. So far this year, Tennessee is 12th nationally, giving up 27.45%.

Again, Bowling Green and Tennessee Tech, sure. But if you want the better comparison: Pitt went 8-of-20 (40%) on third down. That’s exactly the number the Vol defense hit against South Carolina and Missouri in the first two weeks of last season, both going 6-of-15. After that:

• Georgia: 8-of-16, 50%
• Kentucky: 6-of-12, 50%
• Alabama: 7-of-12, 58.3%
• Arkansas: 9-of-17, 52.9%
• Auburn: 9-of-15, 60%
• Florida: 6-of-13, 46.2%
• Vanderbilt: 3-of-18, 16.7%
• Texas A&M: 10-of-14, 71.4%

Yeah, that’s gross.

So yeah, things are better. “They’ll need to be against Florida,” sounds like the next sentence, and probably so. But the Gators went just 4-of-12 in this department against Alabama. Tennessee’s defense was masterful in getting out of bad situations against Pittsburgh, giving the offense every opportunity to win.

Can they do the same tomorrow night?

The mostly likely outcome here is we take what we learn from Saturday night, and see if it can translate into victory in a very important stretch of at Missouri and vs South Carolina.

But if you’re looking for magic – and not the kind that appears out of thin air, like the Vols suddenly connecting on a high percentage of deep balls – it may in fact come from the defense, and their significant improvement in getting off the field when it matters most.

Go Vols.

Two years ago this week, the Vols headed to Gainesville after losing to Georgia State and BYU. In the middle of that week, it looked like the line in Vegas might become the second-worst of the then 30 years Tennessee and Florida had met consecutively. It settled at +12.5 by kickoff; the Vols lost by 31.

We are trending, shall we say, in the wrong direction:

In now 32 years of playing this rivalry annually, the Vols have been favored seven times, and we’ve won seven times. Vegas doesn’t miss much. When they do, it can be comical: you’ll note the 30-point spread in the, “Urban Meyer might actually attempt murder on Lane Kiffin,” game. Or what was the second-highest line the Vols faced in this rivalry, until last year: 2001, when the Vols went to The Swamp and won anyway.

That +16.5 at kickoff remains the biggest upset in the last 35+ years for Tennessee, a stat we pulled when Jeremy Pruitt’s year one team did the deed at Auburn:

Based on the closing lines at https://t.co/ZGtqgJ50S9, Tennessee's biggest wins as an underdog since 1985:

1. 2001 at Florida (+16.5)
2. 1989 at UCLA (+15.5)
3. 2018 at Auburn (+14.5)
4. 2004 at Georgia (+13)
5. 2003 at Miami (+12.5)

— Will Shelton (@wshelton2) October 14, 2018

2001 Florida has always been a stupid line all around: we don’t think of that win as the program’s biggest upset, because the Vols were good enough to be in the national championship conversation themselves. The rest of that list looks more like it, with Pruitt’s inclusion proof that it is always possible…and it may not necessarily mean everything.

What we do know is the Vols broke that +16.5 number last year at +18.5, and are headed that way as I write this on Wednesday afternoon this season, currently +19.5. If it stays there, the Vols will face their toughest odds against Florida at any point other than a throwaway line from 2009, and victory would require the program’s biggest upset in Vegas of the last 35 years.

We’re spending less energy worried about Bama these days, which is good. But Florida – vanquished five years ago, should’ve been vanquished four years in a row then, and just 3.5 points away three short (long?) years ago – remains a relevant conversation. “Always within reach, seldom grasped,” is how this usually goes.

But now, even the reach is getting longer. And so perhaps it’s a good moment to frame a couple of conversations.

For Tennessee’s present, six wins will not be lost on Saturday night. On that front, the Gators represent only opportunity. Lose to Florida by 1 or 10 or 30 again, and Tennessee can still find their way to bowl eligibility. In this way, this Tennessee season feels a bit like what I assume it used to be in the Bluegrass: if you can get Florida, Georgia, or Tennessee (Alabama for us), fantastic. But you can still get to six wins without any of them.

Tennessee’s season, so far, has gone about the way you’d think: 32 points on Bowling Green, 56 on Tennessee Tech, and losing to Pitt when -3 in turnovers with a baker’s dozen penalties. In SP+, the Vols are actually up from their preseason projections, with a Top 25 defense and Top 10 special teams.

But it’s in this – the way we think – that opportunity remains stubbornly available to idiots and optimists alike.

The two highest lines the Vols have faced against Florida both took place in December. Where we know this game is here, in September, the SEC opener. It is, most often, the first thing you can talk yourself into. And, most recently, it’s felt like the last thing you could talk yourself into.

If the Vols are not who we think – in a good way – Saturday night is the best opportunity for it to present itself. To be surprised. To be delighted.

I don’t know how to not come to this game with hope, foolish or not. The only way not to, as we learned last year, is to move it to December. And I don’t know how long it will take to move that Vegas line back towards something more reasonable in this series. Or, with Texas and Oklahoma coming, I suddenly don’t know how much longer we’ll be doing this with them every year any way. And unlike the Alabama series, we haven’t been beaten badly enough, recently enough, to make me something other than sad about that for now.

The past has clearly trended in the wrong direction for Tennessee in this rivalry. The present can’t be overly harmed by Saturday night. It’s only the future – the tantalizing, probably improbable fast-forward button on all this business – that’s really up for grabs. And maybe that’s always how it was when Kentucky played these guys under Rich Brooks: we can move the program forward without this one, but hey, we’ll shoot our shot and see if we can’t move it forward faster anyway.

It’s opportunity, somewhere between nowhere and now here. It may not last long Saturday night, and we may get right back to the business of finding six wins.

But it’s still the Wednesday of Florida week. For three decades now, and who knows how much longer, it’s the week to get your hopes up, because those hopes have paid off juuuuuuuuuuuuust enough to do it one more time.

And it’s only Wednesday.

Go Vols.

Here’s where we’ve stood heading into the first three Saturdays of the year in expected win totals:

• Week 1: 6.74 wins
• Week 2: 6.60
• Week 3: 5.94

The Vols had no problem with Tennessee Tech, but are still more of a mystery than we were counting on after three weeks. Tennessee now has a Top 25 defense and a Top 10 special teams unit in SP+. But the offense continues to face question marks at just about every position group that isn’t…tight end, which was probably the least certain coming into the year. Jacob Warren leads the Vols in receptions with nine, and Princeton Fant is tied for second with six.

Last week, our community gave the Vols a 22.7% chance to beat Florida. Let’s see how you’re feeling about that, and everything else, this week:

You can’t go back, of course, but Pittsburgh’s 44-41 loss to Western Michigan certainly didn’t give us the warm fuzzies. Looking forward:

• Worse, but we’ll talk ourselves into it anyway: Florida was impressive and had very real chances to take down Alabama. The Gators can easily tell themselves they still control their own destiny: get to Atlanta, get revenge, make the playoff. Or, you know, they could still be let down and come out slow against us on Saturday night.
• Better by way of the above: I don’t know that anyone is giving Tennessee a significant chance to beat Alabama, but your number probably isn’t going down this week.
• Better by way of Chattanooga: Kentucky made Tennessee’s win over a Volunteer State FCS foe look even better, as the Mocs took away their running attack and had their chances to score a monumental upset.
• About the same: Lots here this week: Georgia did what you thought they would to South Carolina, Missouri handled their FCS business, Vanderbilt lost 41-23 to Stanford, and Ole Miss beat Tulane past my bedtime.

Last season, Princeton Fant caught 12 passes for 103 yards. Jacob Warren had six for 73, a grand tight end total of 18 catches for 176 yards.

This season, in two games between them: 11 catches for 112 yards.

Those 11 catches currently represent 35% of Tennessee’s total receptions, a truly wild statistic that surely will come down as the season plays on. This is not a specific feature of a Josh Heupel offense; quite the opposite, in fact. Via SportSource Analytics, last year Jake Hescock led all UCF tight ends with…9 catches for 42 yards. The year before: 9 for 87.

If you track Tennessee’s pass distribution from 2010-20, it averages out to 63% of receptions going to wide receivers, 23% to running backs, and 14% to tight ends. The biggest outliers at tight end during that time: 2016, when Jason Croom shifted to tight end and joined Ethan Wolf in getting 21 catches apiece for 19% of the receptions. And 2010, when Luke Stocker caught 39 passes by himself, and tight ends accounted for 21% of the total.

Those 39 for Stocker in 2010 are two behind the school record, held by Chris Brown with 41 in 2007. Also tied for second place with 39: Mychal Rivera in 2012, and Jason Witten in 2002. That’s the three catches per game pace both Warren and Fant are chasing early.

How long will it last? The most important thing for Tennessee’s offense, obviously, is to start connecting with receivers downfield. At UCF, Heupel’s offense averaged 76% of completions to wide receivers, with 18% to backs and just 6% to tight ends. Those opportunities have been there for the Vol receiving corps, but so far have fallen incomplete. Credit the coach for adaptation, and both Princeton Fant and Jacob Warren for not just being ready, but being difference makers against Pitt when their number was called.

With the loss to Pitt, it’s a pretty safe bet that our community expected win total is going south of 7 after rounding up. We’ve spent the first two weeks at 6.74 and 6.60, but now the real question will be how many of us will dip into the 5’s this week. You know the drill:

If Pitt is good-to-great, we probably won’t know it for a minute. The Panthers’ next four weeks go Western Michigan, New Hampshire, Georgia Tech, bye week. Until then, here’s how you might be feeling about the rest of Tennessee’s schedule this week:

• About the same: Florida, probably, depending on how many Anthony Richardson highlights you watch and/or how much you think Dan Mullen will play him and/or how much you value non-Central directional Florida schools as opponents. You know how to value Alabama, which is to say we may not learn anything about the Gators this week either. South Carolina struggled early but rallied late to beat East Carolina. Georgia ran through UAB.
• Probably worse: Ole Miss, and definitely worse since we last turned loose the win total machine before their game against Louisville last Monday night. The Rebels get Tulane, Alabama, and Arkansas before coming to Neyland, so there’s some time for opinion forming still. Somehow Kentucky and Missouri accomplished the rare feat of playing against each other and making me feel worse about our chances of beating either of them. The Tigers become the next big opportunity to move toward six wins; they’re at Boston College the week before hosting us, so we’ll see if things change between now and then on their end. And a late-night kudos to Vanderbilt, undefeated in FBS play.