Author Archives: Will Shelton

It’s been easy, in hindsight, to frame a lot of last week as, “LOL Mizzou’s defense.” I’ve done it too. And now, that’s leading us head first into, “LOL Carolina’s offense,” on the front end this week.

And sure: take away pick sixes, and the Gamecock offense scored 13 points against East Carolina, 13 against Georgia, 10 against Kentucky, and 16 against Troy. Meanwhile, Tennessee’s defensive performance in holding Pitt to 4.84 yards per play looks better by the Saturday. And Mizzou’s 5.35 yards per play featured 154 of the Tigers’ 396 yards (38.8%) coming after Tennessee built a 55-17 lead.

So there’s a version of this where we pump the brakes on Tennessee’s defense, saying we’ll get a much bigger data point next week against Ole Miss. Fair enough. But despite the good vibes, and assumed advantage – our community had the Vols at 61.9% to win this game in the preseason expected win total machine, but 73.9% this week – that same upgraded test is coming for Tennessee’s offense tomorrow.

South Carolina’s defense is 36th in SP+ this week: not enough to offset the offensive concerns, but enough to make life difficult on Tennessee. And really, life hasn’t been overly difficult for Tennessee’s offense much this year.

There’s still so much about watching Heupel’s team that we’re getting used to, especially pace-related. The Vols are at 75.8 plays per game. In our last year one, the Vols ran 59.7 plays per game, last in the nation by an unhealthy margin.

The Vols are also currently rocking essentially a 240-to-140 run-to-pass ratio, keeping it on the ground 63% of the time. Last year the Vols ran it 56.8% of the time, 56.2% of the time in 2019. When Tennessee last had a running quarterback and potent offense in 2016: 57.7% on the ground. Three of Tennessee’s five games have been non-competitive to the good in the fourth quarter, so I’m not sure we’re running 63% of the time by the end of the year. But it’s still an uptick from what we’ve seen in the past.

Running it so often this year defies much of the Heupel stereotypes, which he tried to tell us coming in. But I think it’s also masking some really good quarterback play from Hendon Hooker.

In the four weeks he has played, Hooker is throwing it 22 times per game (plus 8-10 carries per game, excluding sacks). For context: last year JG threw it 24 times per game, Josh Dobbs was at 27 in 2016, Tyler Bray at 38 in 2012. At UCF, Dillon Gabriel hit 41 per game last year, but just 31 per game in 2019.

So no matter how you slice it, Hooker’s on the low end so far. He had 21 pass attempts against Pitt and 23 against Florida, but didn’t play the entire game in either. There’s a chance South Carolina’s defense requires more from him.

But even with a smaller sample size? What Hooker actually has done is particularly impressive in three ways. He’s fifth nationally in overall QB rating, but that’s often a less trustworthy stat. However:

• Completion Percentage: 68.5%, 24th nationally
• Recent UT leader: Erik Ainge 2006 67%

• Yards Per Attempt: 9.4, `15th nationally
• Recent UT leader: Erik Ainge 2006 8.6

• Interception Percentage: 1.1%
• Recent UT leader: Peyton Manning 1995 1.1%

So far, Hooker is accurate, explosive, and clean. That last part might feel a little out of place because his only pick on the year was on the final drive against Pittsburgh (and he also threw a bad one in the Orange & White Game). Hooker also threw five picks on 150 attempts (3.3%) last season at Virginia Tech. But so far this year, he’s rocking a 10-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio, and hasn’t really thrown many balls that had a chance to go the other way.

We go into Saturday almost back where we started in win totals, despite having two losses:

And if the Vols win this game – which again, we’re favored to do – optimism should hit a high-water mark next week. When’s the last time we were more optimistic in Week 7 than in Week 1?

Coming into the year, we thought this game would be the best comparison to where the Vols were, and the most important one to get in the quest for six wins. If the name of the game is volatility, both for a year one coach and college football this season, maybe we’ll go back to expecting the unexpected with this team.

But a win tomorrow allows us to keep having the much more fun conversations about this team, and would set up a highly anticipated showdown next Saturday night. It’s a big game in the way it enables other games to be big.

Carolina’s offense hasn’t been a challenge. Will their defense challenge Hendon Hooker, and will he continue to rise to the occasion?

Go Vols.

The good vibes live on into Wednesday, the non-stop highlight reel of last Saturday turning the corner to reframe a visit from the Gamecocks this week. The Vols are -10.5 as I type. In the last four meetings, the Vols have been -2.5, +9, +4, and -4.5 last year. What felt like a match-up of two programs starting over in similar spots has become an opportunity for Tennessee to separate themselves not only from South Carolina, but much of the year one narrative we thought we’d get.

If six wins is a good goal, a win on Saturday gets you to 4-2. We say it every week: the rhythm is just different this year, Tennessee’s schedule operating in a way we’re very unfamiliar with. Instead of a slew of high-profile matchups to open, the Vols got relative toss-ups. But South Alabama and Vanderbilt are still there at the end too, meaning a 4-2 start would lead to the assumption of wins five and six, readily available on the season’s final Saturdays.

It’s the in between part that has a chance to be reimagined.

If the Vols struggle and/or lose, we’ll go back to what one probably should expect: volatility begets volatility. College football overall is more roller-coastery than usual this season, and no one would understand the inherent thrills and nausea more than Tennessee’s program. Struggle and/or lose, and unexpected remains the theme, with the Vols needing to find another win before late November to earn a 13th game.

But because last Saturday was so very unexpected indeed, now we’re willing to believe in something a little bigger…especially if the Vols play well again this week.

The 62-24 triumph at Missouri was the first reason to believe. Josh Heupel is the fifth Tennessee coach in a Year One in the last 13 seasons. And, to their credit, each of his predecessors gave us a real reason to believe in Year One. His predecessors are also just that: those initial reasons to believe ultimately flamed out.

They’ve each done it a bit differently, and each offer something we can learn in reflection. We’ve been through a lot, and we’ve developed some callouses and boundaries along the way. What’s a healthy, appropriate response to the first sign of life? Let’s see how it’s gone before:

Lane Kiffin 2009: Blew out a rival in Week 6 (plus recruiting)

It’s strange to type, “If you’re old enough to remember,” but if you are, Kiffin left little opportunity for a wait-and-see stance. He put himself in position to need defending, and man, we did it. He also signed Nu’keese Richardson, Janzen Jackson, Bryce Brown, and a host of other freshmen who would play right away, building instant credibility that the Vols would have enough talent to get the job done. In 2009, Tennessee was also just two years removed from Atlanta: it felt like a remodel, not a rebuild.

Then he lost to UCLA in truly puzzling and disappointing fashion. He turned a +30 line into a 10-point loss in The Swamp against #1 Florida. And the Vols just missed against Auburn, also starting over with Gene Chizik, in Week 5. “Sooner than later, we’ve got to win one of these,” we thought.

Sooner: the Vols hammered Georgia 45-19 the very next week, getting a religious experience from Jonathan Crompton at quarterback. Last Saturday’s win at Missouri is the most the Vols have over-performed the Vegas line in the post-Fulmer era (and maybe ever) at +40.5; this one is fifth on that list at +27, but that number means a lot more against Georgia.

Again, we were only two seasons removed from huge, meaningful wins. But this one certainly felt like validation, and validation traveled. The Vols almost beat #1 Bama two weeks later and rolled out the black jerseys in rolling #21 South Carolina. They hadn’t fully arrived: the Vols also got Dexter McClustered 42-17 at Ole Miss, and played a game fairly similar to what we just saw at Florida against #12 Virginia Tech in the Chik-fil-A Bowl, dropping a wide-open touchdown late in the third quarter that would’ve cut it to one possession, before ultimately losing by 23.

Still, even at 7-6, Kiffin’s year inspired a ton of confidence (and fun) going forward, stemming much from that huge Saturday in Week 6. The same scenario isn’t necessarily available to Josh Heupel this year, as Tennessee’s biggest rivals are all much better than Georgia was in 2009. But I think we’d be more than happy to make the comparison should Ole Miss or Kentucky arrive as a ranked opponent.

How long did it last: Let’s talk more about that next week.

Derek Dooley 2010: We found a quarterback in Week 9 (and beyond)

Knew it coming in, and it indeed happened: a front-loaded Tennessee schedule meant the Vols started 2-6, with five of those losses to Top 20 teams plus Georgia in Athens. The last of them, at #17 South Carolina, featured the appearance of freshman Tyler Bray in the second half.

He threw a pick six, but then almost rallied Tennessee to victory. Not only did the Vols get bowl eligible from there, Bray made an assault on Tennessee’s freshman passing records, held by both Peyton Manning and Casey Clausen.

It was a testament to the power of getting the right guy, then knowing that guy is still going to be around. Bray felt like a legitimate future first-round pick at that point, and for all the struggle of going Fulmer-Kiffin-Dooley in three years, getting quarterback right covers a multitude of sins.

How long did it last: The problem with putting so much of it on your quarterback is that quarterback can get hurt. After one of the best performances any Tennessee quarterback has ever put on vs Cincinnati in Week 2 of 2011, Justin Hunter tore his ACL on the opening drive at Florida in Week 3, and Bray broke his thumb on a Georgia helmet in Week 5. There was still enough optimism for 2012, and rightfully so on offense. But the defense couldn’t hold up their end, and Bray’s presence ultimately led to a bunch of close losses to ranked opponents.

Butch Jones 2013: Almost beat a rival in Week 6, beat a ranked team two weeks later (plus recruiting)

To his credit, Butch Jones – received with plenty of arms folded in front when he was hired – won people over by March with his work in securing an unusually high number of in-state and legacy talents in recruiting. Jones got Jalen Hurd, Todd Kelly Jr., etc. in the boat, making you believe good things were coming, even if we had to wait.

Then he almost beat #6 Georgia while all those guys were still in high school, the original Smokey Gray Saturday that is still among the most fun anyone has had in Neyland in the last ten years.

Then he did beat #11 South Carolina two weeks later.

We talked about this on our podcast this week: the 2013 season was ultimately another struggling Year One against probably the most difficult schedule Tennessee has ever faced. But it was one of the more fun seasons of these last 13, both because of what Tennessee was building in those brick-by-brick recruiting classes, and because the performances against Georgia and South Carolina made you believe the Vols could win now, even against such a daunting schedule.

How long did it last: It’s the Ballad of Butch Jones: had big moments along the way, but missed the chance for them to truly become lasting memories when those seasons themselves failed to land on their feet. Tennessee cost itself bowl eligibility in a 14-10 loss to Vanderbilt in late November. Good vibes continued through a strong early stretch in 2014…then the Vols lost to Florida in excruciating fashion. Josh Dobbs came on soon after to build even more momentum…then see 2015 Oklahoma and Florida, etc.

Jeremy Pruitt 2018: A historic upset in Week 7

The Vols took three 26-point losses to West Virginia, Florida, and Georgia, building little optimism. Then the Vols went to #21 Auburn and won 30-24 at +14.5, the program’s third-biggest upset via Vegas since 1985.

After getting past the requisite Bama blowout, the Vols lost a close game at South Carolina and were uninspiring against Charlotte…then busted up #12 Kentucky 24-7.

It wasn’t true in terms of week-to-week performance (another good reason to value what Tennessee is doing in things like SP+). But according to the head-to-head police, Tennessee’s wins over Auburn and Kentucky gave Pruitt the best two wins of any of these year one coaches (though Kiffin’s were probably more fun because of who and how).

However…

How long did it last: On the doorstep of bowl eligibility after that Kentucky win…Tennessee lost 50-17 to Missouri and 38-13 to Vanderbilt to finish the season 5-7. It was more confusing than anything else, then completely and rightfully overshadowed by the Georgia State loss to open 2019. In the end, 2018 had the most volatility: the biggest wins, and the worst losses.

So, as we’ve learned, no matter how good the first piece of belief is, it’s only the first. Sometimes it can last into year three, sometimes it fades by November. One must continue to taste and see.

But it’s not all coachspeak to believe in things like valuing the process over the results, especially early…and especially after you’ve just won by 38, instead of the other way around. The Mizzou blowout gave us reason to believe, and happened earlier than any of these other data points. But Tennessee’s relative stability in every performance so far this season – one in which there should probably be more volatility than ever – is also an encouraging sign.

And if the Vols are steady again on Saturday, they can put the bowl eligibility conversation to the side for a month. Because if Tennessee’s opponents also take care of business, the Vols could face four straight ranked foes after Saturday.

Beat South Carolina, and we’ll face them with far more reason to believe than we thought possible.

Go Vols.

And now for the fun part:

There’s a reason we wait til Mondays on these things: not too high, not too low, etc. But I’m very curious to see where our community will land after Saturday’s beat down.

In addition, our next two opponents didn’t exactly cover themselves in glory. South Carolina beat Troy 23-14, their anemic offense again aided by a pick six. And Ole Miss was down 35-0 to Alabama after the opening drive of the third quarter. Again, it’s Bama; I don’t expect our win percentage against the Tide will rise significantly, even after what we did to Missouri. But the Rebels don’t come out of that performance looking like a bigger challenge than they did a week ago.

Even Kentucky, who vanquished Florida in Lexington, did so in a fashion that doesn’t cause additional concern for the Vols (so long as you don’t let them block a field goal and run it back for a touchdown). You’ll note Hendon Hooker in the upper right quadrant from Saturday here:

Here are the Week 5 QB performances for the P5. Jayden Daniels hello! Also another great Adrian Martinez performance #CFB #CollegeFootball pic.twitter.com/mTtRUGzbRr

— CFBNumbers (@CFBNumbers) October 3, 2021

And Will Levis waaaaaaaaaaaaaaayyyyy down there at the bottom. And they still won! Congrats!

But is your number for Kentucky going up or down this week?

It was a very good weekend around here. Curious to see how good and very good the win totals look this week in response.

Go Vols.

Don’t look now:

✨ WEEK 6 SP+ RANKINGS ✨

* The B1G surges with increased conference adjustments
* Ohio State sure has started to look like Ohio State again #2014vibes
* TOP! 15! PITT!
* TOP! 20! TENNESSEE!
* I promise it's not personal, Wake Forest
* You too, Pac-12https://t.co/KH6ybesqUU

— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) October 3, 2021

We love SP+ in part for the value it places on every snap, and the way it helps differentiate two teams with the same record. As you might expect, when you announce your presence with such authority as the Vols did against Mizzou, you go up in the ratings.

Same with KenPom, coming into the last few seasons we’ve used Bill Connelly’s preseason projections in an attempt to figure out the right tier for that year’s team. For instance, this year we thought progress for Tennessee would look like something better on the field than we saw in 2017, 2018, and 2020.

That might still, of course, be the case. But through five weeks, Josh Heupel’s first team has moved itself up a tier or two in these conversations.

Here’s Tennessee’s history in SP+ in the last 14 years, including the current rating for 2021:

If the 2021 squad holds its current position, it would be the fifth-best Tennessee team of the last 14 seasons. That would be a really good start for Josh Heupel in year one.

(I assume you know the part that follows by heart – “…especially considering everything we’ve been through,” – but I’m going to keep saying it, because it was and is monumental, and is so far an even greater testament to what these guys are doing through five weeks.)

The 2015 Vols are rightfully atop these ratings in the post-Fulmer era. But the next three teams are in the tier we thought Jeremy Pruitt’s Year Three Vols would land among: the full-season edition of 2016, Lane Kiffin’s 2009 season, and Derek Dooley’s final year in 2012. You felt like each of those teams generally had a chance to win every Saturday.

Right now, the 2021 Vols have positioned themselves just beneath that tier, but above what I thought would already end up representing progress for them: the year two efforts of both Butch Jones (2014) and Jeremy Pruitt (2019). Again, that would be an incredible accomplishment for Josh Heupel in year one…especially considering everything we’ve been through.

It’s five weeks; we’ll see. But in this metric at least, the Vols have moved from “Better than most of the last five years,” to “Faster pace than Dooley’s early rebuild,” to “On pace with Butch and Pruitt in year two,” to “…Okay, I don’t know what to do with this team, but I’m excited about the possibilities.”

It’s five weeks. But…especially considering everything we’ve been through…I will write all the words you want when good news presents itself.

Go Vols.

Context is king, but it’s hard to find after this one my friends.

But let’s start here: back in August, we looked at the best and worst surprises for the Vols in the post-Fulmer era. We used Vegas as the measuring stick: what were Tennessee’s most noteworthy performances playing above and below the line at kickoff?

The four worst surprises have come in the last four years: losing by 33 to Missouri in 2018 at +5.5, getting shutout 41-0 by Georgia in 2017 (+10), losing to Georgia State as a 24.5-point favorite, bottoming out with last year’s Kentucky debacle at -6.5.

So how much, we wondered, could a good surprise be worth for Josh Heupel?

Turns out, that looks like today:

Year	Opponent	Line	Outcome	Difference
2021	at Missouri	+2.5	62-24	40.5
2010	Ole Miss	-2.5	52-14	35.5
2015	vs Northwestern	-9.5	45-6	29.5
2014	Utah State	-3.5	38-7	27.5
2009	Georgia	+1	45-19	27

It’s a fun comparison, that 2010 Ole Miss game. That was freshman Tyler Bray’s second start, and the first against someone other than 1-11 Memphis. That Ole Miss team ultimately wasn’t much good either, but the Vols were only -2.5 at kickoff with the Rebels 4-5 coming in.

And that’s the biggest difference from today: that game happened on November 13, the Vols scrambling and, on that day, dominating en route to bowl eligibility. This is October 2. We already knew the rhythm of this season would be different than the other year ones we’ve seen recently due to the schedule, and the presence of multiple toss-ups early.

But now we’re feeling some feelings both rare and in a hurry.

Of additional historical note today, via the media guide:

• 35 first downs ties the school record (UGA 97, Troy 2012, South Carolina 2014).
• If the Vols had punched it in on the final drive of the first half, they would’ve tied the school record for points in a half (49 vs Louisiana-Monroe in 2000).
• Tiyon Evans’ 92-yard touchdown run is the third-longest in school history.

On Missouri’s second drive, the Tigers converted 3rd-and-8, 3rd-and-9, and 2nd-and-17. They only got three points, but it felt like a missed opportunity to build on an early 7-0 lead. But the Vol offense immediately responded with 75 yards in seven plays. Four plays later was Evans’ 92-yard run. And somewhere in there, Missouri started looking like they wished they were somewhere else.

Tennessee ran 18 plays for 263 yards and 28 points before they faced a single third down. Then they converted that one for a 35-yard touchdown to Velus Jones on 3rd-and-12. And then, and then, and then.

There’s winning, then there’s blowing someone out, and then there’s today.

And it was today: week five, year one.

Who knows where such things are headed; that year one moment for Tyler Bray and Derek Dooley ultimately led to a lot of close losses in year three. There’s no proof available so soon. But I do know it’s better to be Josh Heupel in year one right now than Eli Drinkwitz in year two. Like 40.5 points above the spread better.

I also know the Vols now have a chance next Saturday to put the bowl eligibility conversation aside for an entire month. Beat South Carolina in Knoxville, and you’re at four wins. And you close with South Alabama and Vanderbilt. The path to success in year one is much more clear today. Win next week, and we get to test the ceiling again for a bit.

That’ll come. For now, the word of the day is surprise. And as long as we’ve been trying to put this thing back together, we’ve never seen one quite as pleasant as today.

Go Vols.

Our community expected win total lands at 5.92 this week. Through four weeks of the season, Tennessee has been incredibly steady as it relates to expectations. The biggest difference we’ve seen in expected win totals was losing a 50/50 game to Pittsburgh:

In our three games vs FBS competition, the Vols have come within six points of the line:

• -37 vs Bowling Green; won by 32
• +3.5 vs Pittsburgh; lost by 7
• +18 at Florida; lost by 24

“Predictable” would not have been your word of choice coming into this season, for a million reasons. But a third of the way through the regular season, the Vols are a lot of who we thought they’d be. And that’s a good thing, considering we tend to think a little more highly of our teams as Week 1 approaches.

Josh Heupel’s first team continues to follow a path that was largely unavailable to his predecessors. Jeremy Pruitt’s year one Vols in 2018 caught a ranked West Virginia squad in the opener, then Florida, Georgia, Auburn, and Alabama in a row. November would be the month they had their chances, we thought.

Butch Jones’ 2013 squad faced what still might be the toughest schedule in school history, playing seven Top 20 (and six Top 11) teams from September 14-November 9. Other than Austin Peay, Western Kentucky, and South Alabama, the Vols were underdogs every Saturday until they played Vanderbilt and Kentucky to finish.

Derek Dooley’s Vols had the same problem, never facing a one-possession line until November. That 2010 group knew it might face a 2-6 start with a chance to finish 6-6, and that’s exactly what they did.

Pruitt and Jones were able to score the big upset, and Dooley almost did at LSU. Pruitt’s Vols beat Auburn on October 13, Jones’ Vols beat South Carolina on October 19, and Dooley’s Vols had LSU the first time the game ended on October 2. It’s been the month for year one magic, real and almost.

Josh Heupel’s season has already faced a different set of challenges with a true toss-up in Week 2, where the Vols left feeling okay about themselves with a seven-point loss despite three turnovers and 13 penalties. But instead of running the SEC gauntlet early and getting those wins back late, Heupel’s Vols now enter their most crucial stretch of the season. Another 50/50 game, this time at Missouri. A chance to be a home favorite in the SEC, non-Vanderbilt division, against South Carolina. And the most realistic big upset opportunity left on the table against Ole Miss.

The Vols have two wins in the bag, and we assume two more at the end of the season from South Alabama and Vanderbilt. Good news about those two being there: you literally can’t look past them. In between, the Vols need two more wins to secure bowl eligibility. The best and most important chance to get one should be next week against South Carolina, a program also starting over. That would leave either at Missouri, or at Kentucky left: split those and beat the Gamecocks, and you’re home. So while it’s not a necessary win, tomorrow is a tremendous opportunity to get ahead of the curve.

In this regard too, optimism has increased since the season opener. In the week leading up to Bowling Green, our readers gave the Vols a 44.2% chance to win at Missouri. This week, despite Tennessee’s loss at Florida and uncertainty surrounding the health of Hendon Hooker, our readers give the Vols a 52% chance to get it done in CoMo. The Tigers only beat Central Michigan by 10, then lost a pair of high-scoring games by a touchdown to Kentucky and at Boston College. There’s still plenty of time for a year two ascent under Eli Drinkwitz, it just hasn’t happened yet.

We’ll spend plenty of time talking about Lane Kiffin in a couple of weeks, but so far Josh Heupel’s year one path again most closely resembles his. A should’ve-been-different loss to a mid-tier non-conference foe. A that-wasn’t-as-bad-as-we-thought loss at Florida. And now, another opportunity in a toss-up game.

Kiffin’s Vols needed one more Saturday to bear fruit: on October 3, they lost to Auburn 26-22 in Neyland Stadium. We may be in for another Saturday with thin margins tomorrow. But so far, these Vols have been about what we thought, with plenty of opportunity left to become what we hoped.

Go Vols.

The thing Tennessee was worst at last season was allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 68.2% of their passes, 125th of 127 teams that played. After Emory Jones went 21-of-27, we’re not seeing grand improvement in this category: opposing quarterbacks have now hit 64% of their passes against the Vols this season, 103rd nationally.

But here again, one difference is glaring: last season those quarterbacks hit 68% of their passes at a whopping 8.5 yards per attempt, 110th nationally. So far this season, QBs are hitting 64% of their passes, but for only 6.1 yards per attempt, 26th nationally.

In short: the Vols are doing a good job keeping everything in front of them.

There are lots of stats that will be affected by Tennessee’s pace of play, which increases the total number of snaps for both teams. One, perhaps, is this: opponents have completed 38 passes of 10+ yards against the Vol defense, 98th nationally (all data from SportSource Analytics). But through four games, opponents have landed only one 40+ yard pass play, putting UT in a tie for 18th nationally.

Shout out to this preview from Nate Edwards at Rock M Nation for a stat I hadn’t seen: the Vol defense is fifth nationally in forcing three-and-outs. Tennessee is really good at getting off the field early. But when they don’t, it’s a lot of bending and, so far, very little breaking. One key place for improvement: the end of drives. Opponents have scored on all 13 red zone trips (that’s 100%, kids), with 9 touchdowns in 13 appearances (69.23%, 93rd nationally).

There is an imbalance throughout. The Vols are particularly good at snuffing out the run and blowing up screens: 8.5 tackles per loss per game is good for seventh nationally (aided, again, by pace of play). But the Vols have just nine sacks in four games, four of them against Tennessee Tech.

And, of course: the defense has created a single turnover all year that didn’t come against TTU. One turnover in FBS competition is good for 120th nationally.

Tim Banks and company have done a great job forcing three-and-outs, and a great job keeping teams away from the big play when a drive does advance. The Vols, of course, will need to create something more on the back end of drives, whether through red zone stops or forcing more turnovers. If bend-but-don’t-break is the plan, the defense is absolutely living up to it. I’ll be curious to see just how far it can take them.

So, this is a much less reliable week because we’re unsure of the situation at quarterback, at least until Josh Heupel speaks today at noon. And, if it’s like last week, we’re not likely to know who’s going to start against Missouri until kickoff.

If it’s not Hendon Hooker, that should only be due to injury. But head injuries don’t all behave alike, and Tennessee obviously should take all the necessary precautions with him.

You can let us know in the comments how you filled out your total this week as it relates to who would be playing quarterback.

Elsewhere this week:

• You always get a mixed bag when future opponents face each other, so what are we taking away from Kentucky’s 16-10 win over South Carolina? The Cats are 4-0, but get the Gators this week. South Carolina has an opportunity to right themselves against Troy before coming to Knoxville next Saturday.
• Right now, the Vols have four past or future opponents in the Top 12 of the AP Poll. We’ll learn a lot more about Alabama, Georgia, and especially Ole Miss this week.
• The game that had the biggest potential to move the needle last week did: Missouri lost at Boston College in overtime. Last week, fans gave the Vols a 45.9% chance of winning in Columbia. Does that drift closer to 50% after their loss on Saturday?

In the weeks leading up to the season the last two years, we’ve put Tennessee’s outlook into tiers based on SP+ projections. Leading up to 2020, for instance, the most common comparisons were Tennessee teams you felt like had a realistic chance to have a shot every game. For this year, there was the hope of progress, and the idea that the Vols might not get blown out so often.

Tennessee’s final margin last night was 24 points, twice as many as what we saw in this match-up last year. But no one would argue which game was more competitive: last year Florida built a three-possession lead five plays and 75 yards into the third quarter, and the Vols didn’t score again until there were only five minutes left in the game, then down 31-7. So yes, the outcome was two possessions, but the experience was mostly non-competitive.

Last night, not only did the Vols build a 14-10 lead in the second quarter (and follow it up with a stop). But Tennessee had 4th-and-5 at the Florida 30 with six minutes to play in the third quarter, down 24-14. The drop by Jimmy Calloway was indeed crushing, turning what could’ve been a 24-21 game into a change in possession.

Tennessee also got Florida in 1st-and-20 a minute later, but couldn’t hold as the Gators converted 3rd-and-3, then 3rd-and-1 for a touchdown. The game went to three possessions with two minutes to play in the third quarter; Florida tacked on one more in the fourth.

But by this metric, Tennessee was in the game – ahead, tied, or behind by 1-2 possessions – for 43 of the game’s 60 minutes, or 72% of the outcome. And in this manner, the Vols showed immediate improvement.

In the last three years against the Gators:

• 2018: A safety and a 65-yard touchdown pass on the very next snap turned a 14-3 game into a 23-3 hole with 11 minutes to play in the second quarter. The Vols were in this game for 19 minutes.
• 2019: Florida scored on 4th-and-goal at the 1 on the final play of the second quarter for a 17-0 lead. Brian Maurer got the Vols downfield for three to open the third, but Florida answered with 75 yards in six plays to push it back to three possessions, and the Vols didn’t score again. Tennessee was technically in this game for 32 minutes, but failed to score a touchdown in 60.
• 2020: The Florida score to open the third quarter means the Vols were likewise in this game for 32 minutes.

Comparisons to Georgia and Alabama are increasingly unfair, but in the last administration, consider how quickly they built three-possession leads:

• 2018 Georgia: Dawgs up 17-0 on the last drive of the second quarter. Tennessee scored twice to get it back within 24-12 with 11 minutes to play, but Georgia ground us to death with a 13-play drive requiring nothing more than 3rd-and-4 to make it three scores again. Vols were in this game for 38 minutes.
• 2018 Alabama: Tua Tagovailoa hit Jaylen Waddle for 77 yards on the first play of Alabama’s third drive for the Tide’s third touchdown. Tennessee was in this game for all of seven minutes.
• 2019 Georgia: The one most similar to last night: Brian Maurer hit a big play and made a great throw to give the Vols a 14-10 lead early in the second quarter. Tennessee didn’t score again, but did have 1st-and-10 at midfield down 29-14 before throwing an interception, then stopped Georgia on fourth down but went three-and-out. The Dawgs made it three possessions with 8:02 to play in the fourth, putting Tennessee in this one for 52 minutes.
• 2019 Alabama: You know this one. Down 21-10 at the half, the Vols cut it to 21-13 in the third quarter. Bama responded with six, then the teams traded three-and-outs. The Vols had 4th-and-goal at the 1 with 7:21 to play when Jarrett Guarantano fumbled and Alabama ran it back for a touchdown. So the Vols were in this one for 52 minutes too.
• 2020 Georgia: Vols led 21-17 at halftime, then all Georgia. The Dawgs made it 16 points with 10:30 to go in the fourth, then scoop-and-scored to make it three possessions thirty seconds later. The Vols were in it for 50 minutes, but obviously it only felt like 30.
• 2020 Alabama: A second quarter score made it 21-3, but the Vols did answer with six. Bama was right back to work in five plays and 75 yards. The Vols were in this one for 24 minutes.

By this metric, Josh Heupel’s debut in a rivalry game was Tennessee’s best performance against the Gators in four years. And I’d put it on the list with the Brian Maurer Georgia game, the 2019 Alabama game until JG’s fumble, and the first half in Athens last year as one of Tennessee’s better performances in any rivalry game of the last three years.

This is, of course, no ultimate prize. But the Vols looked more coherent, longer, with fewer familiar faces. The game plan made sense on both sides of the ball. And so too, for now, did the outcome.

Tennessee moves to its most important stretch now, and will do so with continued uncertainty about the health of its quarterbacks. The Vols are +3 at Missouri, a virtual toss-up on a neutral field. The success of 2021 will rise and fall quite a bit between now and the next time we see one of our biggest rivals.

But for the long-term success of the program…last night was a decent step in the right direction, especially considering how many coaches have tried to take that first step over the last dozen years. There’s a lot left to learn. But not only could it have been a lot worse, it has been before. And there were signs that, perhaps, it might get better.

Go Vols.

Our community expected win total creeps back over six this week. Using our GRT Expected Win Total Machine, we’ve got Tennessee’s projected regular season win total at 6.06 this week. That’s up from 5.94 last week, which followed 6.74 in preseason and 6.60 after Bowling Green.

Even if the Vols fall on Saturday, we may see next week’s total stay north of 5.5 wins. Tennessee’s path to bowl eligibility won’t be threatened tomorrow night; only the fast-forward button is at stake.

This week our community gives the Vols a 19.9% chance against the Gators, down from 22.7% last weekend before they almost got the Tide. That’s down a hair from the 23% chance SP+ gives the Vols, which is, incidentally, Tennessee’s winning percentage since this rivalry’s been played annually the last 31 years.

SP+ provided one of the best data points coming out of the Tennessee Tech game: the Vols now boast a Top 10 special teams unit, and a Top 25 defense (19.6 defensive SP+ rating, good for 21st nationally). Tennessee’s defense made a lengthy climb in this department two years ago, going from the Georgia State debacle to a 7-1 finish. Take out the loss to Alabama in that latter stretch, and no team scored more than 22 points in those seven Tennessee wins. The 2019 defense finished the year 19th in SP+, the program’s highest rating since the 2015 group finished 13th.

That group was led by seniors at every level, from Darrell Taylor to Daniel Bituli to Nigel Warrior. This Tennessee defense has been led largely by a cast of characters we don’t really know well. Through three games Theo Jackson leads the team with a ridiculous 8.33 tackles per game; if he kept that pace all year it would be the best season at Tennessee since A.J. Johnson in 2013. Jackson joins lots of other names in the secondary we’ve heard before, but never with such enthusiasm. There are intriguing possibilities, old and new, on the defensive line.

And even in the middle of the field – where the Vols struggled more than anywhere else last year in a season defined by struggle – there are signs of hope.

The Vols allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 68.2% of their passes last season, 125th of 127 teams who played in 2020. It hasn’t been a total turnaround so far: the Vols are 74th in that stat after holding Tennessee Tech to 47.2%. But in the one live fire test we’ve seen, there were a couple of key differences.

Kenny Pickett went 24-of-36 (66.7%) against the Vols, joining four quarterbacks from last season who completed at least two-thirds of their passes against UT on at least 20 attempts. But you’ll note the improvement:

QB	Year	CMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	YPA
Kenny Pickett	2021	24	36	66.7%	285	7.9
Mac Jones	2020	25	31	80.6%	387	12.5
Felipe Franks	2020	18	24	75.0%	215	9
Kyle Trask	2020	35	49	71.4%	433	8.8
Kellen Mond	2020	26	32	81.3%	281	8.8

It may not have been great against Pickett, but it was a step in the right direction by comparison, in both completion percentage and yards per attempt. The Vols were very bad at this last year. I don’t know how many games just being…maybe below average at it now will win.

But if you’re looking for real progress: last year the Vols were 114th nationally in third down conversions allowed, giving up 47.62% on the year. So far this year, Tennessee is 12th nationally, giving up 27.45%.

Again, Bowling Green and Tennessee Tech, sure. But if you want the better comparison: Pitt went 8-of-20 (40%) on third down. That’s exactly the number the Vol defense hit against South Carolina and Missouri in the first two weeks of last season, both going 6-of-15. After that:

• Georgia: 8-of-16, 50%
• Kentucky: 6-of-12, 50%
• Alabama: 7-of-12, 58.3%
• Arkansas: 9-of-17, 52.9%
• Auburn: 9-of-15, 60%
• Florida: 6-of-13, 46.2%
• Vanderbilt: 3-of-18, 16.7%
• Texas A&M: 10-of-14, 71.4%

Yeah, that’s gross.

So yeah, things are better. “They’ll need to be against Florida,” sounds like the next sentence, and probably so. But the Gators went just 4-of-12 in this department against Alabama. Tennessee’s defense was masterful in getting out of bad situations against Pittsburgh, giving the offense every opportunity to win.

Can they do the same tomorrow night?

The mostly likely outcome here is we take what we learn from Saturday night, and see if it can translate into victory in a very important stretch of at Missouri and vs South Carolina.

But if you’re looking for magic – and not the kind that appears out of thin air, like the Vols suddenly connecting on a high percentage of deep balls – it may in fact come from the defense, and their significant improvement in getting off the field when it matters most.

Go Vols.