With pretty much every future Vols’ opponent but Vanderbilt looking better during Tennessee’s bye week, the weekly reassessment of expected win totals is not a happy exercise. You can get your own expected win total (and have your number used in our community results) using the GRT Expected Win Total Machine.

I did not dream of Nick Saban showing me up on the cornet in front of the other band nerds last night. So there’s that.

Statsy Preview Machine Current Predictions for the Remainder of the season

Well, the good news is that the Vandy game looks the same and that the Arkansas game is back to a toss-up. The bad news is . . . every other game looks worse this morning, which sounds about right.

My assessment

My expected win total for this season is now 4.0.

Here’s how I’ve tracked this season:

• Preseason: 5.4
• After beating South Carolina: 5.8
• After beating Missouri: No analysis, but would have gone up
• After the loss to Georgia: 5.45
• After the loss to Kentucky: 4.3
• After the loss to Alabama: 4.25
• After the bye week: 4.0

Details: I have Florida at 10%, Auburn at 25% (big mover this week), Texas A&M at 35% (down from 40%), Arkansas at 50%, and Vanderbilt at 80%.

Here’s a visual:

Tennessee Volunteers currently

Current record: 2-3, 3rd in the SEC East

Again, nothing new to analyze for the Vols this bye week so any adjustments to expectations will come from the results of other games.

The Vols’ future opponents

Arkansas Razorbacks

Current record: 2-3, 4th in the SEC West

Hmm. A tough one right out of the gate. A&M looked really good, but so did Arkansas at times, and an 11-point loss to a team ranked No. 8 in the nation is nothing to be ashamed of. I had this game at 50% last week, and although the Hogs looked good, I’m sticking with that, largely because the SPM is also calling this one a toss-up. 50%.

Texas A&M

Current record: 4-1, 2nd in the SEC West

As I said, A&M looked good, and they looked good against an Arkansas team that didn’t look bad. I had this one at 40% last week, and although that seems maybe kinda right, I’m actually going to move it to 35% until I see some improvement from the Vols. 35%.

Auburn Tigers

Current record: 4-2, 3rd in the SEC West

Yikes. After getting quite lucky in a couple of games this season, Auburn made LSU look terrible and clobbered them 48-11. LSU has problems, I know, but you can’t watch that game and not think Auburn’s going to be more of a challenge than you thought last week. So, I’m moving this one from 45% to 25%, which makes me weepy.

Vanderbilt Commodores

Current record: 0-4, 7th in the SEC East

No news here, as the Commodores got blown out by Ole Miss, 54-21. Keeping this game at 80%.

Florida Gators

Current record: 3-1, 2nd in the SEC East

Well, crud. It appears that the Gators made good use of their double bye week to patch a leaky defense. Great. If this game wasn’t already at 10%, I’d change it. As it is, though, I’m keeping it at 10%.

The Vols’ past opponents

South Carolina Gamecocks

Current record: 2-3, 3rd in the SEC East

The Gamecocks were off this week as well. But just try to make sense of that resume. A loss to Tennessee, a win over Auburn, a blow-out loss to LSU, which just got blown out by Auburn. This kind of chaos might actually be good news for the Vols, as it suggests that most any team can beat (or lose to) any team any given week (Alabama excluded, naturally). Or it could mean that early season results mean little during a pandemic.

Missouri Tigers

Current record: 2-3, 3rd in the SEC East

Again, chaos. A loss to Tennessee. A win over Kentucky, who beat Tennessee. A blow-out loss to Florida, which may say more about Florida than anything else, but who really knows? Trying to draw conclusions about Tennessee from that loss or from that resume generally is a fool’s errand.

Georgia

Current record: 4-1, 1st in the SEC East

Due to the idea that general chaos renders any confidence about such things imprudent, I’ll just ask a question: Is Georgia’s offense perhaps struggling as much as maybe we thought it might (except against Tennessee and a brand-spanking-new Arkansas team), or is Kentucky’s defense just really good?

Kentucky Wildcats

Current record: 2-4, 6th in the SEC East

See Georgia above. I think Kentucky is better than its schedule will allow the Wildcats to show. Which could be good news for the Vols, as they need an extra win to erase a tiebreaker with Kentucky.

Alabama Crimson Tide

Current record: 6-0, 1st in the SEC West

Who hates these guys?

Don’t forget to submit your own ballot to the GRT Win Total Machine.

It’s Post-Game Monday, which means that it’s time to re-assess our expected win totals in light of Tennessee’s loss to Alabama on Saturday. You can submit your own ballot at the GRT Expected Win Total Machine page.

But first, a diversion: I dreamed last night that I was in a sort of marching band. Not odd yet, as I was Marching Band Nerd Royalty for a time in my small high school in rural Illinois.

The odd stuff begins with the fact that our marching routine included following these weird patterns on the ground. It was kind of like the Yellow Brick Road, but not yellow. Or brick, really, but more brick-ish. Anyway, I was feeling bad because I got lost following some blue shape in circles while everyone else knew what they were doing.

But more weird: Nick Saban was our instructor, and he was pissed at me. So, feeling like a miserable failure, I tried to line up for the next exercise and, as can only happen in dreams, I ended up at the back of a school bus holding a cornet (it’s like a smaller trumpet.) Saban’s standing next to me. Everybody’s watching. Saban looks at me with disdain (or maybe it’s his regular expession — who knows, right? And, of course, he says, “Give me that. I bet I can play that better than you.”

Dude doesn’t even bother to sanitize the mouthpiece. (Like we’re not in a pandemic!) Saban plays Oh, Delta Dawn perfectly and hands my cornet back to me with a smug expression. I don’t even know whether I am capable of playing Delta Dawn in my dream, but I’m embarrassed regardless.

Getting shown up by Nick Saban on the cornet in a dream feels roughly the same as getting shown up by him on the football field in real life. Worse, I’ve been singing Oh, Delta Dawn most of the day. Why couldn’t it have been something by Bon Jovi or Journey or something?

Anyway . . .

Statsy Preview Machine Current Predictions for the Remainder of the season

Yes, the SPM is currently favoring the Vols in only one more game this year.

My assessment

My expected win total for this season is now 4.3.

Here’s how I’ve tracked this season:

• Preseason: 5.4
• After beating South Carolina: 5.8
• After beating Missouri: No analysis, but would have gone up
• After the loss to Georgia: 5.45
• After the loss to Kentucky: 4.3
• After the loss to Alabama: 4.25

Details: I have Florida at 10%, Texas A&M at 40% (no longer at odds with the SPM on this one), Auburn at 45%, Arkansas at 50%, and Vanderbilt at 80%.

Here’s a table with my expectations this week:

Tennessee Volunteers currently

Current record: 2-3, 4th in the SEC East

The pre-game facts: Vegas thought Tennessee would lose to Alabama by 21. SP+ thought they’d lose by 18.5, and the GRT Statsy Preview Machine thought they’d lose by 25. The Vols lost by 31. The facts always seems worse when accompanied by emotions, but objectively speaking, what we saw on Saturday isn’t really much different from what we expected. So for me, Saturday’s result had some impact on how I feel but little to no impact on my expectations going forward.

The Vols’ future opponents

Arkansas Razorbacks

Current record: 2-2, 4th in the SEC West

Off. No change. Still a toss up at 50%.

Texas A&M

Current record: 3-1, 2nd in the SEC West

Off. No change. Still at 40%.

Auburn Tigers

Current record: 3-2, 3rd in the SEC West

Auburn’s 7-point win over Ole Miss was actually closer than it seemed. No real change in my opinion of Auburn this week, and I’m keeping this game at 45%.

Vanderbilt Commodores

Current record: 0-3, 7th in the SEC East

Off. No change. Still at 80%.

Florida Gators

Current record: 2-1, 2nd in the SEC East

Off. No change. 10%.

The Vols’ past opponents

South Carolina Gamecocks

Current record: 2-3, 4th in the SEC East

Hmm. A blow-out loss to a struggling LSU team might have me thinking less of Tennessee’s win over the Gamecocks. For now, though, no. At least not yet.

Missouri Tigers

Current record: 2-2, 3rd in the SEC East

Oh, boy. What do we do when a team that we beat by 23 beats a team that beat us by 27 by 10? Shake our heads and conclude that an All-SEC schedule in 2020 is going to produce results like that.

Georgia

Current record: 3-1, 1st in the SEC East

Off. No change.

Kentucky Wildcats

Current record: 2-3, 4th in the SEC East

See Missouri above. Shrug.

Alabama Crimson Tide

Current record: 5-0, 1st in the SEC West

Huh. When you look at the rest of Alabama’s resume, you might feel a bit better. We didn’t give up 63. We only scored one touchdown less than a couple of ranked teams. As good as Georgia is, they only gave up one fewer touchdown and scored one more. Alabama’s just good. End of story. Call it reaching if you want, but it’s the truth.

Don’t forget to submit your own ballot to the GRT Win Total Machine.