Author Archives: Joel Hollingsworth

Here are the results from last week:

Against Vegas opening spreads last week, the GRT Statsy Preview Machine held to form, hitting just over 50% overall but nailing the high-confidence games and the sweet spot. The actual numbers: 22-21 (51.16%) overall, 12-2 (85.71%) in Category 2, and 5-0 (100%) in Category 3. For the season, the SPM is now 171-149 (53.44%) in Category 1, 68-57 (54.40%) in Category 2, and 32-28 (53.33%) in Category 3.

Using the same spreads as SP+, the SPM was 23-20 (53.49%) overall for the week.

For the sake of comparison, SP+ was 18-24-1 (43%) officially, using its own spreads. For the season, it is 165-150-6 (52.3%). Against our spreads, it was 21-22 (48.84%) for the week and is 181-139 (56.56%) for the season.

Below are the GRT Statsy Preview Machine’s picks for Week 12 of the 2020 college football season. As always, if you’re wondering why we do this or what I mean when I refer to “confidence” and when I place game predictions into different categories, check out this post. Also, in case it’s not perfectly clear from the above results, spreads matter.

GRT SPM 2020 Week 12 Picks

According to that, which uses the opening spreads for the week, there are nine Category 3 games that the SPM likes particularly well. Of those, SP+ agrees on the following:

• Tennessee at Auburn (Auburn -11.5) (ugh)
• Washington State at Stanford (Washington State +1.5)
• Liberty at North Carolina State (Liberty +3)
• Indiana at Ohio State (Indiana +19.5)

Against Vegas opening spreads last week, the GRT Statsy Preview Machine went 36-12 (75%) overall, 11-6 (64.71%) in Category 2, and 4-4 (50%) in Category 3. For the season, the SPM is now 149-128 (53.79%) in Category 1, 56-55 (50.45%) in Category 2, and 27-28 (49.09%) in Category 3.

Using the same spreads as SP+, the SPM was 29-17 (63.04%) overall for the week.

For the sake of comparison, SP+ was 31-16-1 (65.95%) officially, using its own spreads. (That should make it 147-126-5 (53.85%) for the season.) It did better against our spreads: 32-16 (66.67%).

Below are the GRT Statsy Preview Machine’s picks for Week 11of the 2020 college football season. As always, if you’re wondering why we do this or what I mean when I refer to “confidence” and when I place game predictions into different categories, check out this post. Also, in case it’s not perfectly clear from the above results, spreads matter.

GRT SPM 2020 Week 11 Picks

Below are the machine’s picks this week.

According to that, which uses the opening spreads, there are five Category 3 games that the SPM likes particularly well this week. Beware, though, that the sweet spot that has done so well the past several years has shifted just a bit this year. So far in 2020, the sweet spot has shifted from between 9 and 14 (points away from the Vegas opening spread) to between 11 and 15. If we’d been using 11-15 all season, the Category 3 games would be 25-16 (60.98%) instead of just under 50%. I’m wary of introducing a moving target into the equation, though, so we’ll continue tracking 9-14. Also, the lines obviously move by Thursday of each week when I post this, and the sweet spot, of course, moves with them.

Bottom line, the games the SPM feels best about as of the time I’m drafting this (just before Wednesday evening’s games), both because they are currently in the sweet spot and because SP+ agrees, are these:

• Central Michigan at Northern Illinois (Central Michigan -6.5)
• Baylor at Texas Tech (Baylor +1.5)
• Colorado at Stanford (Colorado +6.5)

What are you favorite games this week?

The Vols’ game against Texas A&M scheduled for this Saturday has been postponed and re-scheduled for December 12. Alabama-LSU, Auburn-Mississippi State, and Georgia-Missouri have all been postponed as well. But that doesn’t mean there isn’t anything to watch this weekend. Here’s the college football TV schedule for the week. As always, a list curated just for Vols fans comes first, with the full searchable schedule for the entire week following at the bottom of the post.

Tuesday, November 10, 2020 – Friday, November 13, 2020

There are games every night this week, starting tonight, and these are the ones we deem most worth watching. Mostly, it’s just “it’s football” games, but Friday does feature Iowa-Minnesota and Top 10 (!) Cincinnati.

Gameday, November 14, 2020

The Vols’ game against Texas A&M kicks off at 3:30 on ESPN. Prior to that, there is a noon SEC appetizer, with future opponent Vanderbilt taking on Kentucky on the SEC Network.

The evening slate features South Carolina traveling to Ole Miss at 7:30 on the SEC Network.

Full searchable college football TV schedule

Here’s the entire 2020 college football TV schedule for this week:

UPDATE: The Tennessee-Texas A&M game has been postponed until December 12. We’ll leave this here for contemplation but re-run the numbers the week before the game.

Below is a look at Tennessee’s national stat rankings side-by-side with the counterpart rankings for the Texas A&M Aggies. The Vols better be up for a challenge this weekend, as the Aggies appear to have advantages all over the place.

On offense, Tennessee is going to need to make the most of first downs to stay out of third-and-long situations, and they’ll likely need to do it with a safe passing game, as rushing yards may be hard to come by.

On defense, the team is going to have its hands full against a very good passing-oriented offensive attack that is lethal on third down and particularly well-suited to have a good day against a Tennessee defense struggling mightily on third down. Expect the Vols to roll out a bend-and-hope-we-don’t-also-break game plan, utilizing nickel and dime packages most of the day and being thrifty about sending extra rushers against an offensive line good at preventing sacks.

When the Vols have the ball

Link to table

Where’s the opportunity?

If only we can get to fourth down! 🙂

Seriously, though, the only real opportunity looks to be on first downs. Team passing efficiency is basically a push as well, but most everything else leans toward the Aggies.

Where’s the danger?

Apart from A&M basically just being better on defense than the Vols are on offense, the biggest challenges are going to be running the ball, third downs (gulp), and not throwing interceptions.

Gameplan for the Vols on offense

Make the most of first downs. Pass the ball, but don’t get reckless through the air, and stay out of third-and-long situations (gulp).

Vols on defense

Link to table

Where’s the danger?

Tennessee’s defense is stronger than its offense, but it’s not as strong as A&M’s offense, which appears to have an advantage everywhere you look. The biggest monster here? Third downs, where the Aggies are No. 2 in the nation and will be going against a defense that ranks No. 103rd in that category. Generally speaking, the strength of A&M’s offense is its passing attack.

Where’s the opportunity?

If only we can get them to fourth down! 🙂

As I said above, the Aggies’ offense appears to have every advantage. The smallest of those advantages? Interceptions, rushing.

Gameplan for the Vols on defense

Coach up that secondary and that defensive line. Play nickel or dime. Get as much pressure on the quarterback as you can, but be selective on blitzes, because they’re really good at not allowing sacks, so sending extra guys may be wasted effort. Use those guys to keep all receivers in front of you. This may be a bend-don’t-break Saturday.

Special teams

Link to table

The Vols are pretty good on special teams, but so are the Aggies, mostly. Perhaps Tennessee can pick up some extra yards on kickoff returns.

The kickers appear about equal, with Seth Small 4-5 on the season and Brent Cimaglia 4-6, but with a couple of longer kicks on his resume so far.

Turnovers and penalties

Link to table

Both Tennessee and Texas A&M are about as likely to commit penalties. A&M appears to be a little less turnover-prone. There could be some hidden yards and opportunities if the Vols are able to limit penalties, and turnovers could decide the game if they start bouncing the Vols’ way.

Here’s our weekly color-coded look at how the Vols’ national rankings are trending in each of the official NCAA stat categories.

Offense

If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link. If it still looks bad, that’s because of the data that’s in it. 🙂

Currently in the Top 30: There is no green here.

Fell out of the Top 30 this week: Nothing was in the Top 30 last week.

Climbed out of the Bottom 30 this week: Nothing got better this week, so . . .

Currently in the Bottom 30: 3rd down conversion percentage, total offense, passing offense, scoring offense, team passing efficiency, passing yards per completion, passes had intercepted

Defense

If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.

Currently in the Top 30: Defensive TDs, 4th down conversion percentage defense

Fell out of the Top 30 this week: Nothing

Climbed out of the Bottom 30 this week: Nothing was in the Bottom 30 last week.

Currently in the Bottom 30: 3rd down conversion percentage defense, team passing efficiency defense

Special Teams

If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.

Currently in the Top 30: Blocked kicks allowed, blocked punts allowed, punt return defense, kickoff returns, net punting

Fell out of the Top 30 this week: Punt returns

Climbed out of the Bottom 30 this week: Nothing was in the Bottom 30 last week

Currently in the Bottom 30: Kickoff return defense

Turnovers and Penalties

If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.

Currently in the Top 30: Fumbles recovered

Fell out of the Top 30 this week: Nothing

Climbed out of the Bottom 30 this week: Nothing was in the Bottom 30 last week

Currently in the Bottom 30: Turnovers lost