Projecting the finish: three games to go

After another week of sitting on the sofa and watching other teams play, here’s the record of what went down and how it might impact the Vols the rest of the way. As always, you can log your own expectations with the GRT Expected Win Total Machine.

Statsy Preview Machine Current Predictions for the Remainder of the season

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Opponent	Preseason	W7	W8	W9	W10	W11	W12	W13
SC	TN -21.9
MO	TN -10.1
GA	GA -26.2
KY	KY -.7
AL	AL -27.9	AL -25.1
AR	TN -14.1	AR -.2	AR -4.1	TN -.5
AUB	AUB -9.6	AUB -4.8	AUB -6.9	AUB -18.7	AUB -15.7	AUB -21.9
FL	FL -22.8	FL -13.6	FL -14.4	FL -21.8	FL -24.9	FL -30.8	FL -33.7	FL -29.6
TAMU	TAMU -6.4	TN -1	TAMU -3.7	TAMU -9.7	TAMU -29.8	TAMU -27.2	TAMU -29.2	TAMU -22.4
VAN	TN -9.4	TN -21	TN -21.2	TN -21	TN -24	TN -18.7	TN -16.3	TN -12.1

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A little improvement this week. Let’s see why.

My assessment

My expected win total for this season is 3.1.

Here’s how I’ve tracked this season:

Preseason: 5.4
After beating South Carolina: 5.8
After beating Missouri: No analysis, but would have gone up
After the loss to Georgia: 5.45
After the loss to Kentucky: 4.3
After the loss to Alabama: 4.25
After the bye week: 4.0
After the loss to Arkansas: 2.95
After the A&M postponement bye: 2.95
After the loss to Auburn: 2.8

Details: Some slight movement this week over last: Florida from 5% to 10%, Texas A&M from 15% to 20%, and Vanderbilt from 60% to 80%.

Here’s a visual:

Tennessee Volunteers currently

Current record: 2-5, 4th in the SEC East


Date	Opponent	Result	Score
Sat, Sep 26	@ South Carolina	W	31-27
Sat, Oct 3	vs Missouri	W	35-12
Sat, Oct 10	@ 3 Georgia	L	44-21
Sat, Oct 17	vs Kentucky	L	34-7
Sat, Oct 24	vs 2 Alabama	L	48-17
Sat, Nov 7	@ Arkansas	L	24-13
Sat, Nov 21	@ 23 Auburn	L	30-17
Sat, Dec 5	vs 6 Florida
Sat, Dec 12	vs 5 Texas A&M
Sat, Dec 19	@ Vanderbilt (??)

The game against Vanderbilt was bumped in favor of maximizing the odds that all 14 SEC teams can still play 10 games this season. It’s not showing on ESPN’s scheduling page, but it’s probably safe to assume that the plan is to reschedule Vanderbilt for December 19.

The Vols’ future opponents

Florida Gators

Current record: 7-1, 1st in the SEC East


Date	Opponent	Result	Score
Sat, Sep 26	@ Ole Miss	W	51-35
Sat, Oct 3	vs South Carolina	W	38-24
Sat, Oct 10	@ 21 Texas A&M	L	41-38
Sat, Oct 31	Missouri	W	41-17
Sat, Nov 7	vs 5 Georgia	W	44-28
Sat, Nov 14	vs Arkansas	W	63-35
Sat, Nov 21	@ Vanderbilt	W	38-17
Sat, Nov 28	vs Kentucky	W	34-10
Sat, Dec 5	@ Tennessee
Sat, Dec 12	vs LSU

So this is odd. The Gators’ offense was steamrolling teams . . . but has gotten slightly worse against Vanderbilt and Kentucky. It’s not like they’re struggling to score points or anything, it’s just that they don’t look quite as invincible as they did a few short weeks ago. But all of that still only explains a revision of the SPM projected margin from 33 points to 29. I’m bumping this game from 5% to 10%. Woo.

Texas A&M

Current record: 6-1, 2nd in the SEC West


Date	Opponent	Result	Score
Sat, Sep 26	vs Vanderbilt	W	17-12
Sat, Oct 3	@ 2 Alabama	L	52-24
Sat, Oct 10	vs 4 Florida	W	41-38
Sat, Oct 17	@ Mississippi State	W	28-14
Sat, Oct 31	vs Arkansas	W	42-31
Sat, Nov 7	@ South Carolina	W	48-3
Sat, Nov 21	vs Ole Miss	Postponed
Sat, Nov 28	vs LSU	W	20-7
Sat, Dec 5	@ 22 Auburn
Sat, Dec 12	@ Tennessee

Same. Rolling right along, but only put up 20 points against LSU this week. That result was good for a revision of basically a touchdown to the SPM projected margin, from 29 points to 22. And yes, that’s still three touchdowns. Moving this one from 15% to 20%.

Vanderbilt Commodores

Current record: 0-8, 7th in the SEC East


Date	Opponent	Result	Score
Sat, Sep 26	@ 10 Texas A&M	L	17-12
Sat, Oct 3	vs 20 LSU	L	41-7
Sat, Oct 10	vs South Carolina	L	41-7
Sat, Oct 31	vs Ole Miss	L	54-21
Sat, Nov 7	@ Mississippi State	L	24-17
Sat, Nov 14	@ Kentucky	L	38-35
Sat, Nov 21	vs 6 Florida	L	38-17
Sat, Nov 28	@ Missouri	L	41-0
Sat, Dec 5	@ 9 Georgia
Sat, Dec 12	???

Um, wonky warning. The Vols went from 16-points in the SPM to only 12 against Vanderbilt in a week where Tennessee didn’t play and Vanderbilt lost to Missouri 41-0. That made me shake my head, so I ran the game through the SPM with all of the detail switched on to see why it was arriving at that conclusion. All it did was wink at me. I’m assigning a shrug emoji to this one and moving the game from 60% to 80% in defiance of the machine.

The Vols’ past opponents

South Carolina Gamecocks

Current record: 2-7, 6th in the SEC East


Date	Opponent	Result	Score
Sat, Sep 26	vs 16 Tennessee	L	31-27
Sat, Oct 3	@ 3 Florida	L	38-24
Sat, Oct 10	@ Vanderbilt	W	41-7
Sat, Oct 17	vs Auburn	W	30-22
Sat, Oct 24	@ LSU	L	52-24
Sat, Nov 7	vs 7 Texas A&M	L	48-3
Sat, Nov 14	@ Ole Miss	L	59-42
Sat, Nov 21	vs Missouri	L	17-10
Sat, Nov 28	vs 9 Georgia	L	45-16
Sat, Dec 5	@ Kentucky

Looks about right.

Missouri Tigers

Current record: 4-3, 3rd in the SEC East


Date	Opponent	Result	Score
Sat, Sep 26	vs 2 Alabama	L	38-19
Sat, Oct 3	@ 21 Tennessee	L	35-12
Sat, Oct 10	@ 17 LSU	W	45-41
Sat, Oct 17	vs Vanderbilt	Postponed
Sat, Oct 24	vs Kentucky	W	20-10
Sat, Oct 31	@ 10 Florida	L	41-17
Sat, Nov 14	vs 5 Georgia	Postponed
Sat, Nov 21	@ South Carolina	W	17-10
Sat, Nov 28	vs Vanderbilt	W	41-0
Sat, Dec 5	vs Arkansas
Sat, Dec 12

Georgia

Current record: 6-2, 2nd in the SEC East


Date	Opponent	Result	Score
Sat, Sep 26	@ Arkansas	W	37-10
Sat, Oct 3	vs 7 Auburn	W	27-6
Sat, Oct 10	vs 14 Tennessee	W	44-21
Sat, Oct 17	@ 2 Alabama	L	41-24
Sat, Oct 31	@ Kentucky	W	14-3
Sat, Nov 7	vs 8 Florida	L	44-28
Sat, Nov 14	@ Missouri	Postponed
Sat, Nov 21	vs Mississippi State	W	31-24
Sat, Nov 28	@ South Carolina	W	45-16
Sat, Dec 5	vs Vanderbilt

Kentucky Wildcats

Current record: 3-6, 4th in the SEC East


Date	Opponent	Result	Score
Sat, Sep 26	@ 8 Auburn	L	29-13
Sat, Oct 3	vs Ole Miss	L	42-41 (OT)
Sat, Oct 10	vs Mississippi State	W	24-2
Sat, Oct 17	@ Tennessee	W	34-7
Sat, Oct 24	@ Missouri	L	20-10
Sat, Oct 31	vs 5 Georgia	L	14-3
Sat, Nov 14	vs Vanderbilt	W	38-35
Sat, Nov 21	@ 1 Alabama	L	63-3
Sat, Nov 28	@ 6 Florida	L	34-10
Sat, Dec 5	vs South Carolina

Not a terrible result against the Gators. Hopefully, the Vols can do much better, though.

Alabama Crimson Tide

Current record: 8-0, 1st in the SEC West


Date	Opponent	Result	Score
Sat, Sep 26	@ Missouri	W	38-19
Sat, Oct 3	vs 13 Texas A&M	W	52-24
Sat, Oct 10	@ Ole Miss	W	63-48
Sat, Oct 17	vs 3 Georgia	W	41-24
Sat, Oct 24	@ Tennessee	W	48-17
Sat, Oct 31	vs Mississippi State	W	41-0
Sat, Nov 14	@ LSU	Postponed
Sat, Nov 21	vs Kentucky	W	63-3
Sat, Nov 28	vs 22 Auburn	W	42-13
Sat, Dec 5	@ Arkansas

They did to Auburn pretty much what they did to the Vols.

Arkansas Razorbacks

Current record: 3-5, 6th in the SEC West


Date	Opponent	Result	Score
Sat, Sep 26	vs 4 Georgia	L	37-10
Sat, Oct 3	@ 16 Mississippi State	W	21-14
Sat, Oct 10	@ 13 Auburn	L	30-28
Sat, Oct 17	vs Ole Miss	W	33-21
Sat, Oct 31	@ 8 Texas A&M	L	42-31
Sat, Nov 7	vs Tennessee	W	24-13
Sat, Nov 14	@ 6 Florida	L	63-35
Sat, Nov 21	vs LSU	L	27-24
Sat, Dec 5	@ Missouri

Auburn Tigers

Current record: 5-3, 3rd in the SEC West


Date	Opponent	Result	Score
Sat, Sep 26	vs 23 Kentucky	W	29-13
Sat, Oct 3	@ 4 Georgia	L	27-6
Sat, Oct 10	vs Arkansas	W	30-28
Sat, Oct 17	@ South Carolina	L	30-22
Sat, Oct 24	@ Ole Miss	W	35-28
Sat, Oct 31	vs LSU	W	48-11
Sat, Nov 21	vs Tennessee	W	30-17
Sat, Nov 28	@ 1 Alabama	L	42-13
Sat, Dec 5	vs 5 Texas A&M
Sat, Dec 12	@ Mississippi State

Don’t forget to submit your own ballot to the GRT Win Total Machine.