Below is a look at Tennessee’s national stat rankings side-by-side with the counterpart rankings for the Vanderbilt Commodores. Bottom line for this week: The Vols offense should have more of the same kind of success this week against Vandy that they had last week against Missouri, and the Tennessee defense should have its way with a struggling Commodores offense.

Details below.

When the Vols have the ball

Where’s the opportunity?

Even with Tennessee’s season-long offensive numbers not being especially good, there do appear to be slight advantages in most places against Vandy’s defense. The biggest opportunity looks to be passing the ball, at least when you account for more than just yards. (“Passing Efficiency” is based on passing yards, completion percentage, TDs, and INTs.)

Where’s the danger?

Statistically speaking, it’s on 4th down, but that’s a spurious stat not to be overly concerned with. Something to actually be wary of is Tennessee’s Red Zone Offense versus Vandy’s Red Zone Defense. Things could get hairy there.

Gameplan for the Vols on offense

The Missouri gameplan of Jarrett Guarantano throwing to Jauan Jennings, Marquez Callaway, and Josh Palmer should work nicely here and should result in more than 24 points to boot.

Vols on defense

Where’s the opportunity?

Literally everywhere except tackles for loss. Tennessee’s advantage on defense isn’t just widespread and across the board, it’s deep. Vandy’s offense is TERRIBLE.

Where’s the danger?

Um . . . complacency?

Gameplan for the Vols on defense

Remember the 38-13 loss to Vandy last year. And the 42-24 loss the year before that. And the 45-34 loss in 2016. Don’t get complacent, and right all of those wrongs in one game this weekend.

Special teams

The biggest opportunity here is probably with Callaway returning punts. I’d love to see him get another punt return TD in his final game at Neyland.

Turnovers and penalties

The teams are about the same as far as penalties go, and the turnovers appear to be a bit of a wash. Vandy doesn’t really turn the ball over, but they don’t really force turnovers, either. Don’t let that change this game.

Now on a four-game win streak, how are the Vols’ statistical rankings trending now?

Offense

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Currently doing well: Passing Yards per Completion

Needs attention: Scoring Offense, Red Zone Offense, Rushing Offense, Total Offense, First Downs Offense, 4th Down Conversion Pct

Climbed out of the Bottom 30: Nothing

Fell out of the Top 30: Nothing

Climbed into the Top 30: Nothing, but 3rd Down Conversion Pct is knocking at the door.

Fell into the Bottom 30: Scoring Offense, Rushing Offense

I know it’s hard to move the needle much with one game when you dump it into nearly a season’s worth of data, but I expected to see a bit more movement after that performance against Missouri. Still, there’s improvement on all of the things they’re doing well and kind of well. There’s just not a lot of improvement on the things that need it most. Credit Missouri’s defense for that?

Defense

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Currently doing well: Passes Intercepted, Passing Yards Allowed

Needs attention: There’s nothing in the Bottom 30 here, but Tackles for Loss is being wooed by the darkness. The things to focus on are that, First Downs Defense, Rushing Defense, and third down defense.

Climbed out of the Bottom 30: Nothing in the Bottom 30 last week.

Fell out of the Top 30: 4th Down Conversion Pct Defense. Not worried about this.

Climbed into the Top 30: Nothing.

Fell into the Bottom 30: Nothing, but that Tackles for Loss is worth keeping an eye on.

This whole thing is looking quite good with room still to grow. Step back and look at the whole chart and notice the general trend from more red and yellow to more green and yellow. Good sign.

Special Teams

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Currently doing well: Blocked Punts, Kickoff Return Defense, Punt Returns, Blocked Kicks

Needs attention: Nothing’s in the Bottom 30 here, but several things are dangerously close: Blocked Punts Allowed, Net Punting, Blocked Kicks Allowed, and Kickoff Returns.

I said last week that I wasn’t concerned about the change in Blocked Kicks Allowed because the drop from 1 to 37 was caused by a single blocked kick, but maybe somebody should have been concerned. Two weeks ago, we were tied for 1st; now, we’re at 93. Oof.

Turnovers and Penalties

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Currently doing well: Eh . . .

Needs attention: Turnovers Lost and Fumbles Recovered.

I’ll repeat this because I think it’s important: Penalties can be improved, but you don’t want to do so at the cost of losing your aggression. The team lost some ground on turnovers last week.

A really fun step over the course of a rebuild is The Beat Down: your team has taken a few of those themselves, but now they’re ready and willing to put one on someone else (with a pulse). It kind of happened for Tennessee in 2014, when Josh Dobbs and the Vols beat Kentucky 50-16. But Dobbs was such a revelation against South Carolina the week before, that game still felt like the bigger story a week later. It kind of happened for Jeremy Pruitt’s Vols against Kentucky last season, but then the final two games tainted those memories and left us firmly in stage one or year zero or whatever you like.

So in a sense, the best examples we have of The Beat Down post-Kiffin/Crompton/Georgia came in bowl games: Iowa in the Taxslayer Bowl, then Northwestern in the Outback Bowl in consecutive years. Both times, those beat downs rightly foreshadowed seasons that had every opportunity to be special, though the Vols ultimately missed those moments for different reasons in 2015 and 2016. Bowls are the aftertaste, and can outlast the season’s body of work. The Beat Down is more appropriately applied when it happens in the regular season.

Tennessee beat Missouri by four points. The Tigers blocked two field goals, scored on a well-designed trick play, and recovered a Tim Jordan fumble inside their 30 yard line, to their credit.

To Tennessee’s credit, the Vols gained 526 yards in 73 plays, 7.21 yards per play. Missouri gained 280 yards in 66 plays, 4.24 yards per play. Both of those per-play numbers are the best the Vol offense and defense have done against FBS competition this season. The last time Tennessee out-gained a power five opponent by more than 246 yards was the aforementioned 2014 Kentucky game (+249).

So yeah, we missed The Beat Down, but would enjoy it very much if it showed up Saturday against Vanderbilt. After being underdogs against every power five foe post-BYU, the Vols opened at -20 against the Commodores. Tennessee has covered the spread six weeks in a row for the first time since at least 1990 (via the closing lines at covers.com). We’d have a lot of fun making it seven.

But as long as there’s any positive margin against Vanderbilt, the performance against Missouri should be remembered. Tennessee, on the road against a team with an elite statistical defense and a two-game winning streak by identical 50-17 scores in this series, dominated.

The only opportunity to get a marquee win in this streak was Alabama; the Vols got plenty of juice out of that one anyway. But now, with 7-5 on the horizon, January in Florida seems far more likely than not. And with it could come a match-up against a ranked foe, giving the 2019 Vols a chance to level up before passing the baton to their 2020 brethren.

More on that later. For now, consider how this story is more than just what the Vols have done since losing to Georgia State, BYU, and getting embarrassed at Florida.

• The Vols went 7-5 in 2009 and 8-4 in 2015 & 2016. Those are the only three seasons with 7+ regular season wins in 12 tries since 2008. Beat Vanderbilt, and these Vols will make it four.
• Beat Vanderbilt and win the bowl game, and 8-5 will be the third-best finish behind the two 9-4 seasons under Butch Jones since 2008.
• Beat Vanderbilt, and the Vols will go 4-0 against South Carolina, Missouri, Kentucky, and Vanderbilt for just the second time (2015) since the Tigers joined the SEC in 2012.
• Beat Vanderbilt, and the Vols will have five SEC wins for just the second time (2015) since 2008.

So yes, beat Vanderbilt. But when we do, don’t forget this performance. And don’t be tempted to believe this season is only progress when viewed through the lens of Georgia State. That loss will always be part of this team and Jeremy Pruitt’s story. It has a chance to be more beneficial than anything now. But the opportunity before this team to check off preseason goals and possibly earn a marquee test on January 1 would’ve been progress from the rest of this 12-year hiatus under any circumstances. Turning in a performance like last night’s is both icing on the cake, and a sign of what else could be.

Beat Vanderbilt.

Go Vols.