After a stretch of five-of-six weeks well over 50%, the SPM has now been under .500 two weeks in a row and is trying to get its groove back. Last week, it went 25-29 (46.30%) overall, 9-10 (47.37%) over the confidence threshold, and 7-6 (53.85%) on its favorites.

For the season, the SPM is now 326-313 (51.02%) overall, 136-106 (56.20%) over the confidence threshold, and 80-48 (62.50%) for the favorites.

Meanwhile, SP+ crushed it again last week, going 32-22-4 (59%) overall. It’s sitting pretty at 55% for the season.

SPM favorite picks this week

Here are the SPM’s favorite picks for this week:

What do y’all think?

The Tennessee Volunteers conclude the regular season this Saturday at 4:00 on the SEC Network, but it’s Rivalry Week, and there are great games all week long, especially on Saturday. Here’s when and where to find the games that matter most to Vols fans, along with some suggestions on how and why to watch them.

The list curated just for Vols fans is up first, but there’s a full schedule following that so you can curate your own if you like.

Tuesday, November 26, 2019

Here we go again with teams in Ohio playing football on non-Saturdays. I think they’re confused.

Thursday, November 28, 2019

Rivalry Week cracks open Thanksgiving night with Mississippi-Mississippi State. Alexa, why do they call it the Egg Bowl?

Friday, November 29, 2019

There are a lot of games on TV this Black Friday, but most of them aren’t of much interest to Vols fans. So, if you don’t like those choices, just look for the oblong ball on your TV (or consult the entire schedule below) and find whatever floats your boat.

But notice that line of Orange, which is the Vols hoops team playing Florida State at 7:00 on CBS Sports Network. So be sure to catch that. It’s good to chase a little football with a little basketball.

Gameday, November 30, 2019

Wait, we’re on at the same time as the Iron Bowl? Bummer, as I would have liked to have seen that one live. But we’ll be busy trying to pack three years’ worth on revenge on the Commodores into 60 minutes at 4:00 on the SEC Network.

Depending on what happens with Vols hoops Friday night against Florida State, they’ll play again on Saturday either at 4:00 or at 7:00 and against either Purdue or VCU. If it’s on at 4:00, DVR it and watch it later. Hey, I love hoops, but if it comes down to game number 12 of 12 or game number six of 32, I’m going with 12 of 12. If it’s on at 7:00, then DVR that and catch up with it after the Vols-Vandy football game.

Warm up with Ohio State and Michigan at noon on Fox, although I feel the need to voice the opinion here that you can’t give it a name as presumptuous as The Game if it’s on at noon and on Fox. And what is up with Ohio State’s unnatural affection for the word “The” anyway?

There are also a couple of great options in the evening, so have at it.

Enjoy!

Full searchable college football TV schedule

And hey, it’s Rivalry Week, so there’s chaos all around. Here’s where and when to find it your particular flavor:

Tennessee is bowl eligible for just the sixth time in the last 12 years, the first time since 2016, and the first time since 2015 when you’re actually looking forward to it. If the Vols beat Vanderbilt and win their bowl game, an 8-5 finish would be the third-best season for Tennessee in these last dozen years.

There’s a lot to celebrate, some of which includes not just postseason eligibility but the opportunity to play in January. Those two things seemed improbable and impossible after the Vols were blown out at Florida in a 1-3 start. But thanks to the good work of both Tennessee and the SEC’s upper tier, a January 1 date in Florida is the most likely scenario for the Vols if they handle Vanderbilt.

First, how Tennessee gets there. Then, who they might play.

SEC Bowl Tie-Ins: CFP, NY6 & Orlando

We start with the College Football Playoff. LSU is currently atop those rankings, with the regular season finale against Texas A&M and the SEC Championship left to go. Georgia was fourth last week and should stay there; the Dawgs get 3-8 Georgia Tech, then LSU.

If LSU beats Texas A&M, they should be in regardless of what happens in Atlanta. If Georgia beats Georgia Tech, the Dawgs should be in if they beat LSU. If LSU beats Georgia, Alabama could re-enter the fray if they beat Auburn on Saturday. The 11-1 Tua-less Tide would be in the conversation with Utah and the Oklahoma/Baylor rematch victor if they all win out.

Regardless, the SEC will almost certainly have one team in the College Football Playoff, and possibly two.

From there, the Sugar Bowl is required to take the next highest-ranked SEC team in the CFP poll. This will almost certainly be Georgia or Alabama.

The Sugar Bowl will take from the SEC and Big 12, the Rose Bowl from the Big Ten and Pac-12. The Orange Bowl will take the next highest-ranked ACC team (which was none of them last week; the assumption is this will be the winner of Virginia/Virginia Tech after they then lose to Clemson).

The other team in the Orange Bowl is the next-highest-ranked at-large team from the SEC, Big Ten, or Notre Dame. Because of that, it matters less if the league gets two teams in the playoff this year: either one of Georgia/Alabama makes the playoff and the other goes to the Sugar Bowl, or neither of them make the playoff but one goes to the Sugar and one could go to the Orange. You’d need the lesser of Georgia/Alabama to be ranked higher than the lesser of Penn State and the winner of this week’s Wisconsin/Minnesota game.

Finally, the Cotton Bowl will take the top Group of Five team and the highest-rated available at-large team. That could be the aforementioned lesser of Penn State/Wisconsin/Minnesota. But it could also be Florida, currently 11th in the CFP poll.

Translation: the SEC should have either three or four teams in the College Football Playoff and New Year’s Six.

The Citrus Bowl is next, and gets first pick of all the remaining SEC teams. If Florida makes it four in the CFP/NY6, Auburn is the natural choice here. If the Gators are left out of the CFP/NY6, they’re likely to end up in Orlando.

SEC Bowl Tie-Ins: The Group of Six

That’s the Outback, Gator, Music City, Belk, Liberty, and Texas Bowls. And I list them this way because that’s typically been their order of prestige. The league office says, “In consultation with SEC member institutions, as well as these six bowls, the conference will make the assignments for the bowl games in the pool system.”

This has never meant that all six are created equal. The old pecking order puts the Outback at the top of the list, and that’s held form: a ranked SEC team has played in Tampa seven of the last eight years. If Florida is in the Citrus Bowl, Auburn should be the choice here; the Tigers haven’t been to the Outback Bowl since 2014.

But if the league gets four teams in the NY6/CFP and Auburn goes to the Citrus Bowl, the pool of available teams changes:

• Tennessee (7-5 if they beat Vanderbilt)
• Texas A&M (7-5 if they lose to LSU)
• Kentucky (6-5 playing Louisville)
• Missouri (6-6 if they beat Arkansas, but ineligible at the moment)
• Mississippi State (6-6 if they beat Ole Miss)

You already don’t have enough teams to fill the allotment. You’re two short if Missouri remains ineligible. You’re three short if Ole Miss beats Mississippi State.

Given all of the above, Tennessee and Texas A&M are clearly the cream of this crop. Which brings me to the most important point: Texas A&M played in the Gator Bowl last year.

That being the case, if Auburn is in the Citrus Bowl and the league office is deciding between these five teams, it seems obvious to send A&M to Tampa. From there, the Gator Bowl is traditionally the next-highest in the pecking order; Jacksonville hosted ranked SEC teams three of the last six years and Tennessee and Georgia in two of the other three. By contrast, the Music City Bowl has hosted a ranked SEC team once since 2002. The Belk Bowl has hosted a ranked SEC team once since its agreement with the league in 2014. Last year #24 Missouri became the first ranked SEC team to play in the Liberty Bowl since the arrangement was renewed in 2006. And the Texas Bowl has hosted a ranked SEC team once since its arrangement with the league in 2015.

You can argue about the pecking order of Music City, Liberty, Belk, and Texas. But let’s not pretend the Group of Six doesn’t start with January in Florida.

And that being the case, Tennessee is going to Jacksonville.

If Auburn is in the Citrus Bowl, A&M goes to Tampa because they were in Jacksonville last year and the Vols go to Jacksonville. If Florida is in the Citrus Bowl, Auburn goes to Tampa for the first time since 2014, and the Vols go to Jacksonville because A&M was there last year.

Jason Kirk at Banner Society, who has done my favorite bowl projections for years, currently disputes this theory by sending A&M back to Jacksonville, Auburn to Tampa, and the Vols to Charlotte. The last time the Gator Bowl took the same team in consecutive years was West Virginia in 2004-05. The Outback Bowl took the Vols back-to-back in 2006-07. But it has not happened for either bowl in the last 12 years.

People smarter than me on the Tennessee side of things, including writers at VolQuest and the Jaguars’ backup quarterback, believe the Vols are headed to Jacksonville.

What could disrupt this scenario, besides a loss to Vanderbilt? Outside of total chaos like Georgia Tech beating Georgia, here’s the only scenario I can come up with:

• Auburn beats Alabama, Florida State beats Florida, and Oregon beats Utah in the Pac-12 title game
• CFP: LSU, Ohio State, Clemson, Oklahoma
• Sugar: Georgia vs Baylor
• Rose: Minnesota vs Oregon
• Orange: Penn State vs VT/UVA
• Cotton: Group of Five vs Utah

If there were only two SEC teams in the CFP/NY6, then in this scenario let’s say Auburn goes to the Citrus Bowl, but the Outback and Gator could choose Florida AND Alabama. It’s quite a longshot, but I’d imagine it would send Tennessee elsewhere. Given that Alabama is -4 and Florida is -17.5 right now, I think we’ll be alright here.

One other wrinkle, on the positive side. ESPN’s Mark Schlabach puts four SEC teams in the CFP/NY6, then sends Auburn to the Citrus Bowl. But instead of sending Texas A&M to Tampa, he sends them to Houston…to face Texas. Would the Aggies rather see their old rivals or play on January 1? Good question, but I’m sure the other powers that be would love it. If that happened, the Vols could get to the Outback Bowl, where Schlabach has them facing Penn State. Stay tuned.

Who Would We Play in Jacksonville?

Let’s assume it is in fact the Gator Bowl for Tennessee. Who are we likely to face there?

This is the final year of an arrangement between the Gator and Music City Bowls to each take three ACC and three Big Ten teams in a six-year period. Jacksonville took Iowa (and the Vols) in 2014, Penn State in 2015, then three ACC teams in a row. So they are contractually obligated to take a Big Ten team this year.

However, with bowls things like contracts and rules can be relaxed on college football’s selection Sunday. One scenario I’ve seen, including at Banner Society: the best available Big Ten team is Indiana, and the best available ACC team is the loser of Virginia/Virginia Tech. It’s only a four hour drive from Indiana to Nashville for the Music City Bowl, which sent a representative to see the Hoosiers last week. If it makes sense for all parties involved, those rules will be in theory only. Trading with the Music City would bring the #3 ACC team to Jacksonville, behind the Orange Bowl and the Camping World Bowl. Notre Dame can’t take the ACC spot in Miami, but can in the Camping World Bowl, so the theory is is VT/UVA winner to the Orange Bowl, Notre Dame to Camping World, VT/UVA loser to Jacksonville.

So while there’s an outside chance Tennessee might catch Virginia or Virginia Tech in Jacksonville, the more likely scenario is a Big Ten team. That conference also has rules in place to send its teams to as many different bowls as possible in a six year span. Iowa has been a popular pick for the Gator Bowl, but we remember seeing them there in 2014. The Athletic and the Des Moines Register have details on those contracts as they relate to the Hawkeyes.

Let’s look at the Big Ten picture as a whole. Ohio State seems bound for the CFP. The Rose Bowl takes the next highest-ranked Big Ten team, which will either be Penn State (10-2 post-Rutgers) or the Minnesota/Wisconsin winner. If another Big Ten team is ranked above the next-highest SEC team, they’d get the Orange Bowl but then forfeit their Citrus bowl slot to the ACC. This would not happen if a Big Ten team gets the Cotton Bowl.

Banner Society has Minnesota in the Rose and Penn State in the Cotton. Both ESPN projections leave Penn State out of the New Year’s Six, putting the Minnesota/Wisconsin winner in the Rose and SEC teams in the Orange and Cotton.

Once we get beyond there, the Big Ten’s rules about five different teams playing in bowls over six years come into play. Penn State, for example, played in the Citrus Bowl last year, so don’t look for them back in Orlando. If the Nittany Lions don’t earn a New Year’s Six spot, they’ll be in Tampa (not since 2011).

After the Citrus and the Outback, the Holiday Bowl interrupts the SEC/Big Ten love affair. Both Michigan and Iowa would come into play here: the Wolverines haven’t been to San Diego since 1994, the Hawkeyes since 1991. Then the Gator Bowl, which hasn’t had Michigan since 1991.

So the cleanest scenario would go something like this:

• CFP: Ohio State
• Rose: Minnesota/Wisconsin winner
• Citrus: Minnesota/Wisconsin loser
• Outback: Penn State
• Holiday: Iowa
• Gator: Michigan

If you like that look, watch the College Football Playoff poll this week and see where Penn State lands. If they’re behind Florida, that would be really good news for both the SEC and the chances to see Michigan in the Gator Bowl.

As we’ve noted, I still think the Vols will go to Jacksonville even if the Big Ten gets a third team in the CFP/NY6 and Florida goes to Orlando instead. But if that happens via the Cotton Bowl, Indiana (or an ACC team) becomes a possible alternative for the Gator Bowl.

So, to recap:

• Beat Vanderbilt, and the Vols should be in Jacksonville
• …unless Texas and Texas A&M want a piece of each other, which could send Tennessee to the Outback Bowl
• If Penn State ends up in the New Year’s Six, the Gator Bowl could get Indiana or an ACC team
• If Penn State isn’t in the New Year’s Six, Michigan seems most likely for the Gator Bowl
• It’s important for Penn State to be behind Florida in the new College Football Playoff poll if you want Michigan

First thing’s first: beat Vanderbilt.

Below is a look at Tennessee’s national stat rankings side-by-side with the counterpart rankings for the Vanderbilt Commodores. Bottom line for this week: The Vols offense should have more of the same kind of success this week against Vandy that they had last week against Missouri, and the Tennessee defense should have its way with a struggling Commodores offense.

Details below.

When the Vols have the ball

Where’s the opportunity?

Even with Tennessee’s season-long offensive numbers not being especially good, there do appear to be slight advantages in most places against Vandy’s defense. The biggest opportunity looks to be passing the ball, at least when you account for more than just yards. (“Passing Efficiency” is based on passing yards, completion percentage, TDs, and INTs.)

Where’s the danger?

Statistically speaking, it’s on 4th down, but that’s a spurious stat not to be overly concerned with. Something to actually be wary of is Tennessee’s Red Zone Offense versus Vandy’s Red Zone Defense. Things could get hairy there.

Gameplan for the Vols on offense

The Missouri gameplan of Jarrett Guarantano throwing to Jauan Jennings, Marquez Callaway, and Josh Palmer should work nicely here and should result in more than 24 points to boot.

Vols on defense

Where’s the opportunity?

Literally everywhere except tackles for loss. Tennessee’s advantage on defense isn’t just widespread and across the board, it’s deep. Vandy’s offense is TERRIBLE.

Where’s the danger?

Um . . . complacency?

Gameplan for the Vols on defense

Remember the 38-13 loss to Vandy last year. And the 42-24 loss the year before that. And the 45-34 loss in 2016. Don’t get complacent, and right all of those wrongs in one game this weekend.

Special teams

The biggest opportunity here is probably with Callaway returning punts. I’d love to see him get another punt return TD in his final game at Neyland.

Turnovers and penalties

The teams are about the same as far as penalties go, and the turnovers appear to be a bit of a wash. Vandy doesn’t really turn the ball over, but they don’t really force turnovers, either. Don’t let that change this game.

Now on a four-game win streak, how are the Vols’ statistical rankings trending now?

Offense

If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.

Currently doing well: Passing Yards per Completion

Needs attention: Scoring Offense, Red Zone Offense, Rushing Offense, Total Offense, First Downs Offense, 4th Down Conversion Pct

Climbed out of the Bottom 30: Nothing

Fell out of the Top 30: Nothing

Climbed into the Top 30: Nothing, but 3rd Down Conversion Pct is knocking at the door.

Fell into the Bottom 30: Scoring Offense, Rushing Offense

I know it’s hard to move the needle much with one game when you dump it into nearly a season’s worth of data, but I expected to see a bit more movement after that performance against Missouri. Still, there’s improvement on all of the things they’re doing well and kind of well. There’s just not a lot of improvement on the things that need it most. Credit Missouri’s defense for that?

Defense

If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.

Currently doing well: Passes Intercepted, Passing Yards Allowed

Needs attention: There’s nothing in the Bottom 30 here, but Tackles for Loss is being wooed by the darkness. The things to focus on are that, First Downs Defense, Rushing Defense, and third down defense.

Climbed out of the Bottom 30: Nothing in the Bottom 30 last week.

Fell out of the Top 30: 4th Down Conversion Pct Defense. Not worried about this.

Climbed into the Top 30: Nothing.

Fell into the Bottom 30: Nothing, but that Tackles for Loss is worth keeping an eye on.

This whole thing is looking quite good with room still to grow. Step back and look at the whole chart and notice the general trend from more red and yellow to more green and yellow. Good sign.

Special Teams

If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.

Currently doing well: Blocked Punts, Kickoff Return Defense, Punt Returns, Blocked Kicks

Needs attention: Nothing’s in the Bottom 30 here, but several things are dangerously close: Blocked Punts Allowed, Net Punting, Blocked Kicks Allowed, and Kickoff Returns.

I said last week that I wasn’t concerned about the change in Blocked Kicks Allowed because the drop from 1 to 37 was caused by a single blocked kick, but maybe somebody should have been concerned. Two weeks ago, we were tied for 1st; now, we’re at 93. Oof.

Turnovers and Penalties

If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.

Currently doing well: Eh . . .

Needs attention: Turnovers Lost and Fumbles Recovered.

I’ll repeat this because I think it’s important: Penalties can be improved, but you don’t want to do so at the cost of losing your aggression. The team lost some ground on turnovers last week.

A really fun step over the course of a rebuild is The Beat Down: your team has taken a few of those themselves, but now they’re ready and willing to put one on someone else (with a pulse). It kind of happened for Tennessee in 2014, when Josh Dobbs and the Vols beat Kentucky 50-16. But Dobbs was such a revelation against South Carolina the week before, that game still felt like the bigger story a week later. It kind of happened for Jeremy Pruitt’s Vols against Kentucky last season, but then the final two games tainted those memories and left us firmly in stage one or year zero or whatever you like.

So in a sense, the best examples we have of The Beat Down post-Kiffin/Crompton/Georgia came in bowl games: Iowa in the Taxslayer Bowl, then Northwestern in the Outback Bowl in consecutive years. Both times, those beat downs rightly foreshadowed seasons that had every opportunity to be special, though the Vols ultimately missed those moments for different reasons in 2015 and 2016. Bowls are the aftertaste, and can outlast the season’s body of work. The Beat Down is more appropriately applied when it happens in the regular season.

Tennessee beat Missouri by four points. The Tigers blocked two field goals, scored on a well-designed trick play, and recovered a Tim Jordan fumble inside their 30 yard line, to their credit.

To Tennessee’s credit, the Vols gained 526 yards in 73 plays, 7.21 yards per play. Missouri gained 280 yards in 66 plays, 4.24 yards per play. Both of those per-play numbers are the best the Vol offense and defense have done against FBS competition this season. The last time Tennessee out-gained a power five opponent by more than 246 yards was the aforementioned 2014 Kentucky game (+249).

So yeah, we missed The Beat Down, but would enjoy it very much if it showed up Saturday against Vanderbilt. After being underdogs against every power five foe post-BYU, the Vols opened at -20 against the Commodores. Tennessee has covered the spread six weeks in a row for the first time since at least 1990 (via the closing lines at covers.com). We’d have a lot of fun making it seven.

But as long as there’s any positive margin against Vanderbilt, the performance against Missouri should be remembered. Tennessee, on the road against a team with an elite statistical defense and a two-game winning streak by identical 50-17 scores in this series, dominated.

The only opportunity to get a marquee win in this streak was Alabama; the Vols got plenty of juice out of that one anyway. But now, with 7-5 on the horizon, January in Florida seems far more likely than not. And with it could come a match-up against a ranked foe, giving the 2019 Vols a chance to level up before passing the baton to their 2020 brethren.

More on that later. For now, consider how this story is more than just what the Vols have done since losing to Georgia State, BYU, and getting embarrassed at Florida.

• The Vols went 7-5 in 2009 and 8-4 in 2015 & 2016. Those are the only three seasons with 7+ regular season wins in 12 tries since 2008. Beat Vanderbilt, and these Vols will make it four.
• Beat Vanderbilt and win the bowl game, and 8-5 will be the third-best finish behind the two 9-4 seasons under Butch Jones since 2008.
• Beat Vanderbilt, and the Vols will go 4-0 against South Carolina, Missouri, Kentucky, and Vanderbilt for just the second time (2015) since the Tigers joined the SEC in 2012.
• Beat Vanderbilt, and the Vols will have five SEC wins for just the second time (2015) since 2008.

So yes, beat Vanderbilt. But when we do, don’t forget this performance. And don’t be tempted to believe this season is only progress when viewed through the lens of Georgia State. That loss will always be part of this team and Jeremy Pruitt’s story. It has a chance to be more beneficial than anything now. But the opportunity before this team to check off preseason goals and possibly earn a marquee test on January 1 would’ve been progress from the rest of this 12-year hiatus under any circumstances. Turning in a performance like last night’s is both icing on the cake, and a sign of what else could be.

Beat Vanderbilt.

Go Vols.