Throughout the off-season and especially with a 10-game SEC schedule, we’ve talked about Tennessee’s final record being a less reliable indicator of progress this year. Instead, how about, “Do we have a chance to win every week?”

Did Tennessee have a chance to win today? Not when it turns the ball over three times in the second half. Not against Georgia.

It might be tempting to cut this game in half, but we need the data from all four quarters. For a time, Tennessee was wearing out the underdog playbook: defensive touchdown, make them kick field goals, a pair of fourth down stops. It felt like the kind of game Georgia might regret.

But then, Georgia wore Tennessee out. Literally: the Dawgs snapped it 77 times, the Vols 63, with a dozen of those on the final drive. The Vol defense, heroic deep into the afternoon, was asked to do far too much too often. And Georgia, despite running a less efficient version of it early, got to play their game: limit turnovers, lean on you offensively, and let that defense do the damage.

All of these things are true at the same time:

• Georgia might have the best defense in the country. They do in SP+, by a significant margin, and that may only grow next week.
• Tennessee’s offensive line got a reality check. I’ll be curious to see where they go from here, but their ceiling was not as high as it needed to be to beat Georgia, plain and simple. Ty Chandler and Eric Gray ran 16 times for 36 yards (2.25 per carry).
• Tennessee’s passing game shares the blame. It includes Jarrett Guarantano, but is not his exclusively. JG was sensational in the first half, then self-destructive on Tennessee’s first two turnovers in the second. On the third, I’m not sure what he’s supposed to do when the backs fail to pick up the blitz like that. Guarantano was part of the problem, but there’s plenty of blame to go around.

How many of those problems will show up when we’re not playing Georgia? Ask Alabama in two weeks.

I said on the radio on Friday that it felt like these Vols skipped a step: all that winning to get back to a game like this, but now you’re playing it at #3 Georgia instead of against, say, #21 Texas A&M or #13 Auburn. Those chances will come. We’ll see if the full picture of this team will still look like progress; that starts with Kentucky next week, and will still include plenty of chances for meaningful wins. If Georgia falls at Alabama next week, the Vols can still hang out in the SEC East conversation, thanks in part to Texas A&M’s win today.

We’ve mentioned this stat a bunch, and it’s painfully worth repeating: since 2001, only the 2015 Vols haven’t lost a three-possession game. Those typically come from being too far behind in talent. That’s true with Georgia; credit Tennessee, particularly its defense, for giving itself a chance for a long time today. But when those chances ran out, Georgia ran by us again.

Progress is not a straight line, though we thought it might look that way for a minute or two today. We’ll see what it looks like next week.

That photo is from three years ago, the last time Tennessee played in a game like this. Georgia came in ranked seventh, the Vols out of the poll after their hail mary loss at Florida. The Dawgs came out on the other side of a 41-0 victory in the top five, and ended the year a breath away from a national championship. Tennessee left that day knowing the program had probably climbed as high as it would climb under Butch Jones, not yet knowing how swiftly or how far it would fall from there.

It was also the day Jarrett Guarantano became Tennessee’s best option at quarterback, taking over for Quinten Dormady in the third quarter with the Vols down 31-0. Tomorrow will be the 35th game Guarantano has played in at Tennessee. He is eighth on Tennessee’s all-time passing list, and will pass Jeff Francis sometime this month if he stays healthy, leaving a string of last-name-only quarterbacks in front of him: Manning, Clausen, Ainge, Bray, Dobbs, Kelly.

But Jarrett Guarantano has never played in a game like this. There’s a fullness to the circle that it’s Georgia tomorrow.

To be sure, Guarantano has played elite teams; to be Tennessee’s quarterback is to see them on the schedule every year. And he’s gotten it done as the two-touchdown underdog, his performance at Auburn two years ago maybe his best. That Auburn was not this Georgia. But those Vols were not this Tennessee.

Stetson Bennett has played in a game like this, because he just did it last week. And he gave exactly the kind of performance Georgia wants while riding its elite defense: 17-of-28 (60.7%) for 240 yards (8.6 ypa), one touchdown, no interceptions. Nothing spectacular, everything solid.

This kid is still a mystery, and some percentage of Tennessee’s best chance to win is in revealing it, and discovering Stetson Bennett IV is some percentage of Joe Tereshinski III. Tereshinski was a good story until he went 12-of-20 for 164 yards with two picks against the Vols, the last time Tennessee beat a Top 10 team all of 14 years ago. Good stories have a way of being replaced by great talent in this league; Matthew Stafford had the offense not long after.

There’s some historical harmony for Tennessee on the table tomorrow. The Vols have beaten 11 ranked teams since that 2006 game in Athens, including a handful of almost-Top-10 opponents: #12 Georgia the following year, which went on to finish #2. #11 South Carolina in 2013. #12 Kentucky in Pruitt’s first season. But a win tomorrow would be Tennessee’s first Top 10 victory since #10 Georgia in 2006, its first Top 5 win since #4 LSU the year before, and its highest win over a ranked foe since #3 Georgia the year before that.

Since 1985, Tennessee’s wins against the top five:

• 1985 #1 Auburn
• 1985 #2 Miami
• 1989 #4 Auburn
• 1991 #5 Notre Dame
• 1992 #4 Florida
• 1995 #4 Ohio State
• 1998 #2 Florida
• 1998 #2 Florida State
• 2001 #2 Florida
• 2004 #3 Georgia
• 2005 #4 LSU

That’s eleven Top 5 wins in 35 years, none in the last 15 years. And only six Top 3 wins in 35 years.

This is the first time Tennessee has played in a game like this in three years, which makes us all kinds of eager. Understand how rarified the air of victory would be.

How do we get there? Two years ago the Vols punted on each of their five first half drives, down 17-0 at the break at #2 Georgia. The Dawgs opened the second half with a 10-play, 75-yard drive to make it 24-0. Tennessee, to their credit and Jeremy Pruitt’s delight, had some fight in them: the Vols responded with a 10-play, 75-yard touchdown drive in kind, then made Georgia punt twice in a row before responding with another score to make it 24-12 with 11 minutes to play. The Dawgs did their thing: 13 plays, 75 yards, converting three third downs but none longer than 3rd-and-4. Then Tennessee fumbled on its next snap, adding one on in a 38-12 Georgia win.

Last year with Brian Maurer at the helm, the Vols fell behind 7-0 before hitting a big play to Marquez Callaway to tie it, then took the lead on a 10-play drive, ending on the first snap of the second quarter. They held Georgia to three again, then traded punts for three series before the Dawgs scored again to take a 20-14 lead. Brent Cimaglia missed a 47-yard field goal with a minute to play in the second quarter, and Georgia pounced with a quick-strike touchdown to make it 26-14 instead of 20-17.

Tennessee’s defense actually held it at two possessions longer than I remembered: Georgia’s first three second half drives produced a three-and-out, field goal, and turnover on downs. But the offense got no traction, with Maurer throwing a costly first down pick at midfield with four minutes left in the third quarter. Georgia put on another 10-play, 75-yard drive in the fourth, then another late fumble pushed the margin to 43-14.

Tennessee’s defense is built around denying big plays: best in the nation in not giving up 30+ yard plays last year, tied for 10th in that stat so far this year. Georgia’s offense has been good enough to play that game and win it against the Vols.

Their touchdown drives against Jeremy Pruitt’s defense the last two years:

• 8 plays, 86 yards
• 12 plays, 70 yards
• 10 plays, 75 yards
• 13 plays, 75 yards
• 2 plays, 31 yards (late fumble 2018)
• 12 plays, 84 yards
• 6 plays, 60 yards
• 5 plays, 70 yards (final minute of first half 2019)
• 10 plays, 75 yards

When they had to have it in a hurry before halftime last season, they got it. Otherwise they’ve grinded the Vols down with third down efficiency: 8-of-14 in 2018, 5-of-11 last year.

And they don’t turn it over, and don’t take sacks: Darrell Taylor got them three times by himself in 2018, but no one touched Jake Fromm last season. Stetson Bennett was sacked once last week. It’s not much different from what Tennessee wants to get from Jarrett Guarantano, only with a more elite defense behind it.

Can Tennessee’s defense make up that difference? The Vols don’t have the talent advantage to simply beat Georgia playing Georgia’s game. So much hype, and rightfully so on both sides, is on Tennessee’s offensive line vs. Georgia’s defense. But I think the biggest way the Vols can impact this game is with their defense vs Stetson Bennett. Those magic numbers again: for all the flaws of the post-Fulmer era, the Vols are 18-4 since 2009 when they get at least four sacks, 25-2 with a +2 turnover margin.

Can Tennessee’s defense impact this game the way Auburn’s couldn’t? Can they force Georgia off their schedule and put more of the game on Bennett’s shoulders? Because that’s a trade I’d take with Guarantano, the one experience advantage the Vols have in this fight beyond offensive line: our quarterback has never played in a game like this, but might have more big third down throws under his belt than any quarterback in the nation.

Tennessee is going to need some. Can they make Georgia need some too?

Below is a look at Tennessee’s national stat rankings side-by-side with the counterpart rankings for the Georgia Bulldogs. Details below.

When the Vols have the ball

Link to table

Where’s the opportunity?

Um . . . doing better against their defense than they do against ours? Expect things to look bad on offense for the Vols and know that it’s not us, it’s them. Hope Jarrett Guarantano continues to keep the ball safe from interceptions against a team much more likely to get one. Celebrate any and all successes, and when Tennessee does get into the red zone, hope they score.

Where’s the danger?

The danger is everywhere with these guys: first down, third down, in every facet of the defense. I would like to see how our rushing offense impacts their rushing defense numbers; maybe that’s not as dangerous as it seems.

Gameplan for the Vols on offense

Protect the ball. Try to establish the run. Play-action pass. When you get in the red zone, get in the end zone.

Vols on defense

Link to table

Where’s the opportunity?

Most everywhere. These numbers suggest we can get these guys off schedule and then play them straight up the rest of the series.

Where’s the danger?

There are a couple of important areas where this looks like an even matchup, most importantly third down.

Gameplan for the Vols on defense

Win first down. Get them off schedule to get an advantage on third down and then win third down. Any turnover in our favor will be really, really valuable.

Special teams

Link to table

This looks pretty even, although Georgia appears to have an advantage in the punting game. Big opportunity for the Vols’ punter.

Turnovers and penalties

Link to table

There appear to be a lot of hidden yards for the Vols here, provided they continue to be disciplined and Georgia continues to do what it’s been doing. And Tennessee has shown through two games that it is not inclined to give the ball away. The Vols must continue that trend Saturday.

It’s #3 Georgia and #14 Tennessee in the 3:30 CBS slot on Saturday. That number next to Tennessee’s name may still look a little new; the Vols haven’t been in the Top 15 since 2016, and not before then since 2007. It’s true the poll is a bit sideways these days: any team can be ranked, and Ohio State, Penn State, and Oregon are all north of the Vols while yet to take the field. Wisconsin and Michigan are behind us; maybe they’d be ahead if we all started on the same day, maybe not.

But Tennessee’s case as a Top 15 team is built on both its eight game winning streak, now tied with Notre Dame for the nation’s longest among the power five, and the way we arrived at wins seven and eight. The Vols are 22nd overall in SP+, but their 13.6 (points better than an average team on a neutral field) rating is just barely behind a bunch of teams just in front of them. Auburn is 15th in SP+ at 14.9, making that game a virtual pick-’em if played in Knoxville.

The number might look strange, but Tennessee has a legitimate argument as a Top 15 team right now. The bigger issue long-term is what Tennessee will do when it gets in a game like this one Saturday.

During the offseason, we looked at Tennessee’s recent history in SP+ and grouped the last 15 years in tiers. At 13.6 in SP+ through two weeks, the 2020 Vols aren’t yet on the “competing for championships” level, last seen in 2015 and in 2006-07 before that. A lot can change there on Saturday. But for now, Tennessee finds itself firmly in the “we have a chance to win this game” tier, similar to what we saw from the 2009, 2012, and 2016 Vols.

We got wildly different outcomes from those groups, who each came into the year with wildly different expectations. But the common thread in Lane Kiffin’s year, Derek Dooley’s year three, and Butch Jones’ year four: you went into and came out of almost every game believing Tennessee had a real chance to win.

Case in point: here’s #3 Georgia, who looked as monstrous as they’ve ever looked under Kirby Smart last Saturday. Via covers.com, last year Tennessee was a 24-point underdog in this game, 30.5 in Athens the year before that. But right now, the Vols are only +13.5. In SP+, the Vols are +12 on a neutral field.

This game is the kind of opportunity we haven’t seen since Kirby and the Dawgs took control in this rivalry three years ago, effectively ending Tennessee’s chances to ascend any further under Butch Jones. It’s been long enough, and it was hard enough getting back here, that I’m taking this thing as all opportunity on Saturday. And not the house money kind, the “we have a chance to win this game,” kind. So now isn’t the time to get into the value of just keeping it close with a late score in garbage time.

But as a measuring stick for the entire season, we’ve long viewed every-week competitiveness as a great benchmark. Since 1998, the 2015 Vols are the only team without a two-possession loss. Since 2001, the 2015 Vols are the only team without a three-possession loss.

I don’t know if we’re ready to beat Georgia; statistically we’re not on par with 2015 just yet either. But are we ready to truly compete? Are we ready to have a real chance to win?

Enjoy the week. This is just the eighth ranked vs ranked game the Vols have played in the last 13 years. And half of those came on consecutive Saturdays in 2016. Other than that stretch, the list is 2012 Florida, 2015 Oklahoma, 2017 Florida, and this week. Eight opportunities like this in 13 years. The Vols played 10 such games in 2006-07 alone.

We took the long way around getting back here, more than once. Getting to a game like this is an accomplishment. Having a chance to win it is the next step.

I don’t know if we’ll beat Georgia. But for the first time in the Jeremy Pruitt era, I believe we have an actual, real live chance. And I can’t wait to find out what we do with it.

Go Vols.

Here’s our weekly color-coded look at how the Vols’ national rankings are trending in each of the official NCAA stat categories. A word of warning: With the pandemic causing conferences and teams to start their respective seasons at different times, what used to rank 130 or so teams is currently ranking only 75. These apples are not those apples.

Offense

If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.

Currently doing well: Passes had intercepted, tackles for loss allowed, 4th down conversion percentage, rushing offense, passing yards per completion

Currently needs improvement: 3rd down conversion percentage, first downs offense,

Defense

If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.

Currently doing well: Defensive TDs, first downs defense, scoring defense, total defense, rushing defense

Currently needs improvement: Red zone defense, 4th down conversion percentage defense

Special Teams

If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.

Currently doing well: Punt returns, kickoff returns, kickoff return defense, punt return defense

Currently needs improvement: Net punting is currently last on the list, although it’s not in danger territory.

Turnovers and Penalties

If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.

Currently doing well: Pretty much everything, except taking the ball away.

Appears to need improvement: Turnovers gained and fumbles recovered, although they’re not bad at intercepting passes, which is in the defense category.

Tennessee opened as a 14.5-point underdog to Georgia this week, and the line is currently at 12.5. So . . . does the Statsy Preview Machine think Georgia beats the Vols Saturday? Here’s what the stupid numbers say and why my gut is shaking its head.

From the perspective of Tennessee

Both Tennessee and Georgia have played two games this year, so the SPM will only be using 2020 data.

Tennessee’s Scoring Offense this year: 33
Georgia’s Scoring Offense this year: 32

Tennessee’s Scoring Defense this year: 19.5
Georgia’s Scoring Defense this year: 8

The Georgia scoring defense is most similar to the following prior Tennessee opponent(s) (FBS only) and using 2020 data:

• South Carolina 34.5
• Missouri 36.5

Tennessee scored 35 points against Missouri and 31 points against South Carolina. That’s 93% of what those teams average giving up.

Estimated points for Tennessee against Georgia: 7.4

The Georgia scoring offense is most similar to the following prior Tennessee opponent(s) (FBS only) and using 2020 data:

• South Carolina 25.5
• Missouri 15.5

Tennessee allowed 12 points against Missouri and 27 points against South Carolina, 95% of what those teams are averaging.

Estimated points for Georgia against Tennessee: 30.4

Estimated score: Tennessee 7.4, Georgia 30.4

From the perspective of Georgia

The Tennessee scoring defense is most similar to the following prior Georgia opponent(s) (FBS only) and using 2020 data:

• Auburn 20
• Arkansas 25.5

Georgia scored 37 points against Arkansas and 27 points against Auburn. That’s 141% of what those teams average giving up.

Estimated points for Georgia against Tennessee: 27.5

The Tennessee scoring offense is most similar to the following prior Georgia opponent(s) (FBS only) and using 2020 data:

• Auburn 17.5
• Arkansas 15.5

Georgia allowed 10 points to Arkansas and 6 points to Auburn, 48% of what those teams usually score.

Estimated points for Tennessee against Georgia: 15.8

Estimated score: Georgia 27.5, Tennessee 15.8

SPM Final Estimates

Throw all that in the pot, turn up the heat, and here’s what’s for dinner:

SPM Final estimated score: Tennessee 11.6, Georgia 29

SPM Final estimated spread: Georgia -17.4

Difference between the SPM and the Vegas opening spread: 2.9

That makes this a Category 1 game for the Statsy Preview Machine, meaning it’s not overly confident about its conclusion that Georgia will cover because it is not far off from the Vegas spread.

Eyeball adjustments

I don’t find anything wrong with the numbers on this one, but for some reason, I just think the spread is too high. The SPM is basically showing that both defenses are going to be a drag on the respective offenses, but that Georgia’s defense is going to have more of an impact on Tennessee’s offense than the Vols’ defense is going to have on the Bulldogs’ offense. That makes sense, and it may be the case, because Georgia’s offense is national-championship-caliber elite. The thing my gut is yelling at the numbers, though, is that Tennessee’s offense is currently better-equipped to handle a frustrating defense than is Georgia’s. I don’t think either team is scoring 30 points in this game. More like 20-24, and I think either or both could do it.

So, my eyeball-adjustments this week are more like gut-adjustments, and I’m predicting a score of Georgia 24, Tennessee 20. The Statsy Preview Machine likes the Bulldogs to cover, but I don’t.

Other predictions from other systems

Vegas: As I said before, the Bulldogs opened as 14.5-point favorites and are currently 12.5-point favorites. With an over/under of 44.5, that translates to something like Georgia 29, Tennessee 15.

Bill Connelly’s SP+ likes Georgia, 28-15 (Bulldogs -13), and gives the Vols a 23% chance of winning. He’s using a 12-point spread, and he likes Georgia to cover that.

Bottom line

The GRT Statsy Preview Machine thinks Georgia is going to cover, regardless of whether you use a 14.5-point or 12-point spread. My gut says no either way. Nobody’s feeling especially confident about any of it.

• Vegas: Georgia, -14.5 (~Georgia 29, Tennessee 15)
• SP+: Georgia 28, Tennessee 15 (doesn’t cover the opening spread)
• GRT’s SPM: Georgia 29, Tennessee 12 (covers)
• Me: Georgia 24, Tennessee 20 (doesn’t cover)

Season results on Tennessee games

• Week 4: The SPM and I were both right (albeit overconfident) in saying the Vols would cover against South Carolina.
• Week 5: The SPM and I were both wrong in thinking the Vols would not cover and would win by only 6 points. They won by 23.

What do y’all think?