A Game Like This

It’s #3 Georgia and #14 Tennessee in the 3:30 CBS slot on Saturday. That number next to Tennessee’s name may still look a little new; the Vols haven’t been in the Top 15 since 2016, and not before then since 2007. It’s true the poll is a bit sideways these days: any team can be ranked, and Ohio State, Penn State, and Oregon are all north of the Vols while yet to take the field. Wisconsin and Michigan are behind us; maybe they’d be ahead if we all started on the same day, maybe not.

But Tennessee’s case as a Top 15 team is built on both its eight game winning streak, now tied with Notre Dame for the nation’s longest among the power five, and the way we arrived at wins seven and eight. The Vols are 22nd overall in SP+, but their 13.6 (points better than an average team on a neutral field) rating is just barely behind a bunch of teams just in front of them. Auburn is 15th in SP+ at 14.9, making that game a virtual pick-’em if played in Knoxville.

The number might look strange, but Tennessee has a legitimate argument as a Top 15 team right now. The bigger issue long-term is what Tennessee will do when it gets in a game like this one Saturday.

During the offseason, we looked at Tennessee’s recent history in SP+ and grouped the last 15 years in tiers. At 13.6 in SP+ through two weeks, the 2020 Vols aren’t yet on the “competing for championships” level, last seen in 2015 and in 2006-07 before that. A lot can change there on Saturday. But for now, Tennessee finds itself firmly in the “we have a chance to win this game” tier, similar to what we saw from the 2009, 2012, and 2016 Vols.

We got wildly different outcomes from those groups, who each came into the year with wildly different expectations. But the common thread in Lane Kiffin’s year, Derek Dooley’s year three, and Butch Jones’ year four: you went into and came out of almost every game believing Tennessee had a real chance to win.

Case in point: here’s #3 Georgia, who looked as monstrous as they’ve ever looked under Kirby Smart last Saturday. Via covers.com, last year Tennessee was a 24-point underdog in this game, 30.5 in Athens the year before that. But right now, the Vols are only +13.5. In SP+, the Vols are +12 on a neutral field.

This game is the kind of opportunity we haven’t seen since Kirby and the Dawgs took control in this rivalry three years ago, effectively ending Tennessee’s chances to ascend any further under Butch Jones. It’s been long enough, and it was hard enough getting back here, that I’m taking this thing as all opportunity on Saturday. And not the house money kind, the “we have a chance to win this game,” kind. So now isn’t the time to get into the value of just keeping it close with a late score in garbage time.

But as a measuring stick for the entire season, we’ve long viewed every-week competitiveness as a great benchmark. Since 1998, the 2015 Vols are the only team without a two-possession loss. Since 2001, the 2015 Vols are the only team without a three-possession loss.

I don’t know if we’re ready to beat Georgia; statistically we’re not on par with 2015 just yet either. But are we ready to truly compete? Are we ready to have a real chance to win?

Enjoy the week. This is just the eighth ranked vs ranked game the Vols have played in the last 13 years. And half of those came on consecutive Saturdays in 2016. Other than that stretch, the list is 2012 Florida, 2015 Oklahoma, 2017 Florida, and this week. Eight opportunities like this in 13 years. The Vols played 10 such games in 2006-07 alone.

We took the long way around getting back here, more than once. Getting to a game like this is an accomplishment. Having a chance to win it is the next step.

I don’t know if we’ll beat Georgia. But for the first time in the Jeremy Pruitt era, I believe we have an actual, real live chance. And I can’t wait to find out what we do with it.

Go Vols.