Gameday on Rocky Top

Another game, another ouch. The Vols’ 30-17 loss to the Auburn Tigers Saturday night was another gut punch to players, coaches, and fans, as mistakes erased forever some measure of real progress. Pro tip: Don’t season your Thanksgiving meal with poop flakes. Only a little will ruin the whole day.

History will record this one as the game where Tennessee lost when Jarrett Guarantano threw yet another pick six, this one a 100-yarder. It was essentially a mashup of the worst of this year’s Kentucky game — where Guarantano threw back-to-back pick-sixes — and the worse of last year’s Alabama game — where Guarantano’s goal-line fumble was returned for a touchdown.

A turnover is bad enough. A turnover that results in points for the other team is worse. And a turnover that results in points for the other team while also depriving you of yours, well, that’s almost as bad as it gets. I say almost, because when that single play is the difference in the scoreboard at the end of the game, that’s as bad as it gets.

There were other mistakes. A usually-reliable but currently-gimpy Brent Cimaglia missed two field goals. And the defense totally blew coverage on a play to gift Auburn one of its touchdowns.

But if the only thing you erase is the pick-six, you would add 3 or 7 points to the Vols’ ledger and subtract 7 from Auburn’s, and you’d end up with either a single-point Vols victory or a 3-point game that could go either way in the fourth-quarter.

Instead, the pick-six will be the headline and it’s the progress that will be erased. Because part of what made this result so painful is that it came in a game where the team actually played well. You know, except for the mistakes.

The Vols had 28 first downs to Auburn’s 23. They converted 60% of their third downs. They racked up 222 rushing yards to Auburn’s 165 and 242 passing yards to Auburn’s 220. They committed fewer penalties and were even on the number of turnovers.

Eric Gray ran 22 times for 173 yards, averaging 7.9 yards per carry, and added another 49 yards on three catches. Guarantano was 15-of-23 for 156 yards and Harrison Bailey was 7-of-10 for 86. Eight different players had double-digit receiving yards. And the offensive line was creating holes all night long like we’ve expected them to do all season long.

But all of it was erased by a 14-point swing in a 13-point game on a single play. Oof.

For much of the summer, we hoped for any football at all, and there are now only three Tennessee games remaining in the 2020 season. Sure, any or all of them could continue to disappoint. But it’s also possible that they could be enjoyable, if only this team can keep the progress and begin to erase the mistakes instead.

The Vols’ impoverishment on the money down in 2020 is well-documented and well-known. But just how bad is the situation, and could the Vols get a little richer this week against Auburn?

First, the bad news:

Some helpful context: The average third-down conversion percentage in 2020 is about 41%. The Vols’ current rate of 27% ranks them as No. 119 in the nation. That’s bad.

But Tennessee’s played some pretty good defenses, right? Um . . .

. . . yes and no? When it comes to defending third down, Missouri and Georgia are better than average, but Alabama, Kentucky, and Arkansas are all right at the average, and South Carolina is worse. So Tennessee’s dismal 27% third-down conversion percentage was basically compiled against average competition.

Wait, I thought you said there was good news

If you’re looking for something to be hopeful about, here it is: Tennessee’s offense may currently be ranked among the worst in the nation at converting third downs, but Auburn’s defense is currently ranked among the worst in the nation at defending them as well.

Here’s the same table with Auburn added:

So what, right? What’s an extra third down conversion or two really worth? Maybe more than you think.

The average offense in the SEC right now is converting only six third downs per game. Texas A&M — the best team in the SEC at converting third downs and also the second-best in the nation — only converts just over eight per game. With so few per game, third down conversions are at an absolute premium. While converting a third down doesn’t necessarily mean that drive is going to result in a score, the opposite is usually true: every failure to convert one means a lost opportunity for more points. Perhaps you can save the day with a fourth-down attempt and conversion, but that’s a high risk/reward strategy (depending on factors like field position and time remaining), and maybe you can settle for a field goal, but doing so is still a missed opportunity at four more points. Convert the third down, and you don’t have to consider any of that; you just keep going.

Tennessee’s offense is averaging just under four third-down conversions per game. That’s bad, but it’s only two away from average and four away from the best in the nation. If the Vols can just get one or two more against an Auburn defense struggling on third downs, it could make a dramatic difference.

Go Vols.

It’s hard to find a good comparison to this football season in Tennessee’s history. That’s fitting, given there is no comparison to the way the virus has impacted this year. A good question for all of us, and one we struggled with on the podcast after the Arkansas loss, is how to even discuss the role of the virus in this team’s struggles. Every team in America is dealing with it, so while it may be a unique challenge for some players – most notably Harrison Bailey’s situation in trying to get a freshman quarterback ready – it’s a shared experience in college football. I think if we ended this year with a bunch of random results, it would now feel almost natural to shrug our shoulders and say, “Who knows, let’s see what happens next year.”

But Tennessee’s results, after the first ten quarters, haven’t been random. They’ve been, so far, among some of the worst we’ve ever seen in Knoxville: the Vols and their offense continue to be operating at historic lows, with #23 Auburn and two Top 6 teams still to come. The narrative of the season, so far, has been that when the Vols faced adversity, they fell down a steep hill.

Even last season, as unique as it felt at the time, found some natural comparisons to 1988. To be fair, that’s a comparison we wanted to make, because of what it led the Vols to the following season and beyond. That team was resilient, not just in the second half of the season, but in the second half of games:

• Down 21-17 at half vs South Carolina, won 41-21
• Down 13-3 at half at Kentucky, won 17-13
• Down 22-9 in the fourth quarter vs Indiana, won 23-22

The fall from where we were at halftime of the Georgia game this year to where we are now is dizzying. Tennessee scored 12 touchdowns in the first 10 quarters this season. They’ve scored four touchdowns in the last 14 quarters, one of those down 42-10 to Alabama. It feels like, “We could beat Georgia,” has become, “Can we beat anybody?”

Here are Tennessee’s offensive and defensive numbers from the first and second half this season (stats via SportSource Analytics):

Rushing Off.	1H	2H
Attempts	127	113
Yards	517	346
YPC	4.07	3.06
Rushing Def.	1H	2H
Attempts	124	128
Yards	438	525
YPC	3.53	4.1
Passing Off.	1H	2H
Completions	52	45
Attempts	83	80
Completion %	62.7	56.3
Yards	586	462
YPA	7.06	5.78
Passing Def.	1H	2H
Completions	57	57
Attempts	86	82
Completion %	66.3	69.5
Yards	680	805
YPA	7.9	9.82

Getting just three yards per carry in the second half while allowing nearly ten yards per pass attempt in the second half is still jarring to look at. The Vols have not allowed a touchdown pass in the first half…and have allowed seven in the second half.

Why does this team struggle to respond to adversity, especially when last year’s team was so good at it? Does the virus play a role here in any human being’s ability to respond, especially an 18-22 year old who did not sign up for any of this in their SEC football experience? If so, how much?

When the conversation shifts so far from random to bad football, it’s simply hard to find the right words to call it much of anything else. As we learned last season, there is certainly still time. The Vols still have meaningful opportunities left this season if they can play meaningful football themselves. Perhaps Harrison Bailey will provide some hope, or a healthy Jarrett Guarantano will find the same magic he delivered at Auburn two years ago.

We would settle for weirdness, because we would at least understand it. In an uncertain year, will these last four games contain any surprises? And can Tennessee find a way to make any of them go our way?

Below is a look at Tennessee’s national stat rankings side-by-side with the counterpart rankings for the Auburn Tigers. If you’re looking for hope, you may find some here, as the teams are more even in some of the key matchups than you might expect.

But this game is probably coming down to third downs. Both Tennessee’s offense and Auburn’s defense are struggling on the money down, so fixing that first could go a long way toward a victory. On the other side of the ball, there’s a terrifying disparity between Auburn’s offense and Tennessee’s defense on third down, so when the Vols are on defense, they’re going to have to figure out how to tip the scales on third down by winning first and second.

When the Vols have the ball

Link to table

Where’s the opportunity?

Advantage may be too strong of a word, but there do appear to be a couple of areas that are even because Auburn’s defense is not particularly good at them. For instance, they’re not especially adept on first downs, and they are about as bad defending on third downs as the Vols are at converting them. Their numbers against the pass and the run aren’t great, but Tennessee’s offense is better at running the ball, so that’s probably the Vols’ best bet.

Where’s the danger?

It’s hard to say, to be honest. Somehow, Auburn’s defense is quite good at keeping points off the board (and to a lesser degree, good at keeping yards out of the box score) despite not being great at defending the pass or the run. It could be due to being decent at getting interceptions and defending in the red zone.

Gameplan for the Vols on offense

Based on these numbers, Tennessee’s best bet is to run the ball. It’s the closest thing to an even matchup. Being effective on first down will be crucial, and whichever team best mitigates its third down problems may have the advantage.

Vols on defense

Link to table

Where’s the opportunity?

Again, not so much an “advantage” for the Vols, but in the key defensive stat categories that matter most, this is much closer to a push than I had anticipated. Tennessee’s defense appears pretty evenly matched against Auburn’s offense in yards and scoring and in both the running and passing game.

Where’s the danger?

All of that goes out the window on third down, though, as Auburn is very good at converting them and the Vols’ defense is very bad at defending them.

Gameplan for the Vols on defense

Win first and second down to force third-and-long situations and mitigate the disadvantage on third downs.

Special teams

Link to table

Tennessee should be able to hold its own on special teams, and has an actual advantage in net punting.

Turnovers and penalties

Link to table

The teams are currently about equal when it comes to penalties, but the Tigers are winning on turnover margin, mostly because they don’t give the ball up much.

Tennessee opened as an 11.5-point underdog to Auburn this week, and as of Wednesday morning, the line is currently Tennessee +11. Here’s what the GRT Statsy Preview Machine thinks about that.

Scoring Offense and Scoring Defense for both teams

Tennessee’s Scoring Offense this year: 20.7
Auburn’s Scoring Offense this year: 28.3
Tennessee’s Scoring Defense this year: 31.5
Auburn’s Scoring Defense this year: 22.8

From the perspective of Tennessee

The Auburn scoring defense of 22.8 is most similar to the following prior Tennessee opponents:

• Alabama 22
• Kentucky 21.3

Tennessee scored 17 points against Alabama and 7 points against Kentucky. Combined, that’s 55% of what those teams usually give up, which puts the estimated points for Tennessee against Auburn at 12.6.

The Auburn scoring offense of 28.3 is most similar to the following prior Tennessee opponents:

• Georgia 29
• South Carolina 27.3

Tennessee allowed 44 points to Georgia and 27 points to South Carolina. Combined, that’s 126% of what those teams usually get, which puts the estimated points for Auburn against Tennessee at 35.7.

Estimated score: Tennessee 12.6, Auburn 35.7

From the perspective of Auburn

The Tennessee scoring defense of 31.5 is most similar to the following prior Auburn opponents:

• Arkansas 31.4
• LSU 33.6

Against Arkansas, Auburn scored 30 points against the Hogs and 48 points against the Tigers, which combined is 120% of what those teams usually give up. That makes the estimated points for Auburn against Tennessee 37.8.

The Tennessee scoring offense of 20.7 is most similar to the following prior Auburn opponents:

• Kentucky 23.3
• Arkansas 26

Against Kentucky, Auburn allowed 13 points to Kentucky and 28 points to Auburn. Combined, that’s 83% of what those teams usually get, which puts the estimated points for Tennessee against Auburn at 17.2.

Estimated score: Auburn 37.8, Tennessee 17.2

SPM Final Estimates

Combining the results from both perspectives, here’s what we get:

SPM Final estimated score: Auburn 36.8, Tennessee 14.9

SPM Final estimated spread: Auburn, -21.9

Difference between the SPM and the Vegas opening spread: 10.4

All of that puts this game into the Statsy Preview Machine’s sweet spot, meaning if it had a chest, it would beat it.

Just for fun, we’ve also added Passing and Rushing Yards predictions to the Machine this week. Those numbers for this week:

• Tennessee Rushing Yards: 114
• Tennessee Passing Yards: 139
• Auburn Rushing Yards: 144
• Auburn Passing Yards: 191

Eyeball adjustments

Tennessee’s offensive performance against Kentucky’s defense is as bothersome as a comp as it was on the field. If you run the Machine with three comps instead of two, that 55% number increases to 70%, and Tennessee’s overall points increases from 14.9 to 17.6. Interestingly, running with three comps also decreases Auburn’s points from 36.8 to 31.8, perhaps due to Tennessee’s varied defensive performance against Georgia and South Carolina and/or Auburn’s varied offensive performance against Arkansas and LSU. But even with the score spit out by three comps — Auburn 31.8, Tennessee 17.6 — you have a spread of Auburn -14.2, still covering. Just for fun, running the machine with no limit on comps spits out a score of Auburn 29.8, Tennessee 16.3 and makes Auburn a 13.5-point favorite.

Because both teams have been pretty inconsistent this season, I’m going with the no-limit-on-comps result: Auburn 30, Tennessee 16, which has Auburn winning by 14 points. Both I and the Statsy Preview Machine agree that Auburn covers against the Vols this week.

Other predictions from other systems

With the Vols an 11.5-point underdog and an over/under of right around 50, Vegas is predicting a score of something like Auburn 31, Tennessee 19.

Bill Connelly’s SP+ likes Auburn by 13.7, so he’ll be picking Auburn to cover as well.

Bottom line

The GRT Statsy Preview Machine doesn’t know it’s a Vols fan, so it has no emotion about being so confident of another disappointing Saturday for the good guys. I am a sentient being with mostly orange and smokey grey laundry, and so I am able to come to the same conclusion and yet hope we are both wrong, wrong, wrong.

• Vegas: Auburn 31, Tennessee 19 (Auburn -11.5)
• SP+: Auburn -13.7 (Auburn covers)
• GRT’s SPM: Auburn 37.8, Tennessee 14.9 (Auburn covers)
• Me: Auburn 30, Tennessee 16 (Auburn covers)

Season results on Tennessee games

• Week 4: The SPM and I were both right (albeit overconfident) in saying the Vols would cover against South Carolina.
• Week 5: The SPM and I were both wrong in thinking the Vols would not cover and would win by only 6 points. They won by 23.
• Week 6: The SPM was right, but I was wrong. The SPM predicted Georgia to cover a 14.5-point spread with a score of Georgia 29, Tennessee 12, while my eyeball adjustment revised that to say the Bulldogs would not cover with a score of Georgia 24, Tennessee 20. Georgia covered with a score of Georgia 44, Tennessee 21.
• Week 7: Both the SPM and I were wrong in thinking the Vols would cover 6.5 points as a favorite over the Kentucky Wildcats. The Vols lost 34-7. Oof.
• Week 8: Both the SPM and I were right in predicting that Alabama would cover the 20-point spread, the machine calling it 47-22 and me calling it 47-24. Alabama won 48-17.
• Week 10: The SPM was right and I was wrong about the Arkansas game. The Machine predicted the Vols would not cover a 1-point spread against Arkansas, and I predicted a 1-point win. Arkansas won 24-13.

What do y’all think?

The Vols play at 7:00 on ESPN opposite a Big 12 rivalry game this week, and the rest of the day features a couple of important Big 10 games and a couple involving past and future Tennessee opponents. Here’s the GRT college football TV schedule for the week, first curated just for Vols fans and with the full searchable schedule for the entire week following at the bottom of the post.

Tuesday, November 17, 2020 – Friday, November 20, 2020

The games start early again this week. Take your pick of Buffalo-Bowling Green and Akron-Kent State tonight. The rest of the week, we’ve picked games with the closest spreads.

Gameday, November 21, 2020

The Vols’ game against No. 23 Auburn is on ESPN at 7:00, and there are several other options worth your time this Gameday as well. The noon slate features a Top 10 Big 10 matchup with surprising and scrappy Indiana perhaps giving Ohio State more trouble than expected on Fox. We’ve included Florida-Vanderbilt on ESPN, but I think at this point, we know who both Florida and Vanderbilt are. Arkansas is also in action (on the SEC Network), and we’re hoping Arkansas looks good against LSU.

The afternoon slate features former Vols’ opponent Kentucky vs. former Vols’ opponent Alabama. Surely, the Tide will roll over Kentucky much the way they rolled over us, right? Also on at this time is a Top 20 Big 10 matchup between Wisconsin and Northwestern.

And then it’s time for the Vols, as we said, at 7:00 on ESPN. Bedlam gets the national ABC prime time spotlight as No. 14 Oklahoma State takes on No. 18 Oklahoma at 7:30, so if you’re so inclined, keep your eye on that one way or another.

Full searchable college football TV schedule

Here’s the entire 2020 college football TV schedule for this week:

Here are the results from last week:

Against Vegas opening spreads last week, the GRT Statsy Preview Machine held to form, hitting just over 50% overall but nailing the high-confidence games and the sweet spot. The actual numbers: 22-21 (51.16%) overall, 12-2 (85.71%) in Category 2, and 5-0 (100%) in Category 3. For the season, the SPM is now 171-149 (53.44%) in Category 1, 68-57 (54.40%) in Category 2, and 32-28 (53.33%) in Category 3.

Using the same spreads as SP+, the SPM was 23-20 (53.49%) overall for the week.

For the sake of comparison, SP+ was 18-24-1 (43%) officially, using its own spreads. For the season, it is 165-150-6 (52.3%). Against our spreads, it was 21-22 (48.84%) for the week and is 181-139 (56.56%) for the season.

Below are the GRT Statsy Preview Machine’s picks for Week 12 of the 2020 college football season. As always, if you’re wondering why we do this or what I mean when I refer to “confidence” and when I place game predictions into different categories, check out this post. Also, in case it’s not perfectly clear from the above results, spreads matter.

GRT SPM 2020 Week 12 Picks

According to that, which uses the opening spreads for the week, there are nine Category 3 games that the SPM likes particularly well. Of those, SP+ agrees on the following:

• Tennessee at Auburn (Auburn -11.5) (ugh)
• Washington State at Stanford (Washington State +1.5)
• Liberty at North Carolina State (Liberty +3)
• Indiana at Ohio State (Indiana +19.5)