Gameday on Rocky Top

Well, that was satisfying.

Whatever your experience of the last week or six weeks of uncertainty with Tennessee football, and the smidge of uncertainty that crept into this basketball team in losses to Florida and Missouri…this, tonight, was (Fulmerized) certain.

Josiah-Jordan James hit a three at the 12:53 mark of the first half to give the Vols a 17-8 lead, a shot in the arm for Tennessee’s offense and its confidence. Kansas got it back to six with six minutes to play in the first half, then didn’t make another shot until the Vols turned it over in the final seconds before the break.

The defense is what we expect when Yves Pons is on the floor. Baylor played Bruce Pearl earlier today, which meant they lost their status as KenPom’s best defense even before the Vols tipped off tonight. Kansas was cold from three early, and that helped. But they also seemed extraordinarily aware of Pons, even though he didn’t block a single shot. There were no good looks available, and they didn’t force any bad ones at the rim.

The defense is what we expect. The offense is what we wanted. And oh baby, it delivered.

In those last six minutes of the first half, Tennessee went to the well:

• Fulkerson two
• Pons two
• Springer and-one
• Pons three
• Keon two
• Josiah three
• This right here:

In those six minutes, Tennessee shot 7-of-10 against Kansas – 10th in KenPom defense coming in – and turned a six point game into 16.

To start the second half, Kansas went right in to David McCormack, who cut it to 12. Right back to the well:

• Pons and-one
• Pons two
• Keon two
• Springer two free throws
• Fulkerson two
• Fulkerson, feeling it, two more

Then Victor Bailey, who came into the game taking more shots than anyone in orange, took his first. A three. He splashed it, and suddenly the Vols were up 21. Then he made five straight free throws for good measure.

A Kansas run never came. The Vols led by as many as 26 and won by 19. Yep.

Defensively, the thing Tennessee is best at is forcing turnovers and blocking shots. Tonight: one block (a spectacular one from Josiah), and only seven Kansas turnovers. Yet the Jayhawks shot just 37.7% from the floor, 6-of-24 from the arc, and only grabbed five offensive rebounds on all those misses. A sterling performance from an already-elite defense, now the best in the land in KenPom.

Offensively, mercy.

The hope that Tennessee’s good shots from good ball movement would just start falling came partially true tonight: 52.8% from the floor, a disciplined 8-of-13 from the arc, helped along by a tidy 16-of-17 from the line.

But it was who took those shots that stood out most:

• Pons 7-of-9, 17 points in 23 minutes
• Fulkerson 5-of-8, 11 points
• Keon 3-of-8, 8 points
• Springer 3-of-7, 13 points (7-of-7 at the line)

And the Vols made a shift in their rotation, going solely with Olivier Nkamhoua as the backup post option/eighth man, and giving him a green light. He only went 2-of-7 and had four fouls in 15 minutes, but it felt like there was affirmation in it from the coaching staff: if you’re going to play Nkamhoua, let him play.

We wondered what would happen if the Vols started and played the freshmen more. Small sample size, but good opponent, and the returns were excellent.

The hill remains steep: at Ole Miss Tuesday, at Rupp, a Florida team we already knew was dangerous that looked even more so today, then at LSU. The resume will be written over these next two weeks.

But the Vols made a statement tonight, and did so in such a way that makes you believe this offense has plenty left to give.

We’ll get to that. For now, at the end of this crazy set of weeks in the athletic department…I believe we’ll take every bit of this W tonight.

Excellent work.

Go Vols.

The Cuonzo Maritn school of, “We didn’t make shots,” is still in session in Knoxville. The Vols continue to have the second-best defense in the nation via KenPom, but the offense has plummeted in the last three games, two of them losses, one of them to Cuonzo’s current employer. In that span the Vols dropped to the three line in yesterday’s Bracket Matrix, and are a four in Bart Torvik’s predictive bracketology. It’s been true all year that Gonzaga and Baylor are clearly the best two teams in the land. That means there’s great value in getting a three seed or higher, because you guarantee you’re not running into one of those teams in the Sweet 16. The goal remains to get your best basketball by March, and give yourself the easiest possible path through the bracket along the way. So what does Tennessee’s best basketball look like right now?

We’ll get back to Jaden Springer in a moment, but in general, what’s gone most wrong for the Vols in conference play is, of course, that they’re not making shots – 11th in the SEC in effective field goal percentage, just 29.9% from the arc – and they get no second chances, ranking dead last in offensive rebounding. Tennessee still leads the league in assist rate, getting the most made baskets off of assists. But with lineups still in flux and trending toward more minutes for the five star freshmen, it’ll be interesting to see if that number rises as the Vols make more of those good looks, or falls because the freshmen utilize their skills to get more on their own.

Per minute, Jaden Springer has been Tennessee’s best offensive player all season, now at 19.4 points per game per 40 minutes. Victor Bailey’s volume shooting is second in points per minute, with Keon Johnson third (16.4). And right behind those three guards is John Fulkerson, who still possesses good numbers offensively and is excellent at drawing fouls…but against Mississippi State, he took three shots and three free throws in 29 minutes. The Vols still used their defense to get exactly the kind of win they’ll still need some nights in this league. But the Vols still believe there’s more out there from Fulkerson.

That brings us to Kansas, who got off to an 8-1 start with their only loss to Gonzaga, no shame there. Then they were blown out 84-59 by Texas on their home floor, took two games from TCU, and otherwise went into the Big 12 meat grinder: beat Oklahoma by four, went 0-3 on a road trip at Oklahoma State, Baylor, and Oklahoma.

The Big 12 has lost some of its shine, with the Big Ten, at least in KenPom, now laying claim to best conference in the land status. Alabama and Tennessee are the only two SEC teams in the KenPom Top 20. The Big 12 has six. As such, there are significant opportunities for the league tomorrow:

• #9 Alabama at #24 Oklahoma – 12:00 PM – ESPN
• Florida at #11 West Virginia – 2:00 PM – ESPN
• #10 Texas Tech at LSU – 2:00 PM – ESPN2
• Auburn at #2 Baylor – 4:00 PM – ESPN
• Arkansas at Oklahoma State – 4:00 PM – ESPN2
• #15 Kansas at #18 Tennessee – 6:00 PM – ESPN
• #5 Texas at Kentucky – 8:00 PM – ESPN

That’s a great slate of basketball, one with meaningful opportunities not just for the Tide and Vols at the top, but the handful of SEC teams trying to play their way up the seed line, plus relative season-making opportunities for Auburn and Kentucky squads that won’t make the tournament.

Monday is February. This season will get short in a hurry, and this upcoming stretch for Tennessee – Kansas, at Ole Miss, at Kentucky, Florida, at LSU – will speak loudest on our resume. I do believe there’s a game out there where Tennessee knocks down a bunch of these open looks and we win by more than we were anticipating. I’m not sure if Kansas will be that game, but in a Top 20 showdown with a national power, you take any victory any how. If it’s the defensive slugfest from earlier this week, great.

But if the Vols are trending more toward the freshmen into the teeth of this schedule, this will absolutely be an interesting three weeks. Johnson and Springer haven’t played a bunch on the floor at the same time, in part due to Springer’s ankle. Will the Vols lean on Vescovi, Johnson, Springer, Fulkerson, and Pons? Will they throw Josiah-Jordan James into that mix instead of Vescovi and play a super-talented and athletic perimeter game? What’s happening with Fulkerson in these lineup shifts, especially when dealing with 6’10” David McCormack?

The big picture questions with lineups, freshmen, and offensive identity are still unfolding, and now the toughest part of Tennessee’s schedule will demand answers. This is a big game at the outset of a big three weeks for this team. I’m excited to see what comes next.

Go Vols.

Here’s the GRT Four Factors Forecast for Tennessee’s game against the Kansas Jayhawks tomorrow.

Summary and Score Prediction

Happy thoughts: The Vols appear to have an advantage in turnovers on both ends of the court. It also looks like they have a distinct advantage in shooting defense, which is good because . . .

Challenges: . . . Tennessee’s shooting has run away from home. Or it’s on Rumpsringa or something. It’s gone, is what I’m saying. Like Al Pacino’s cash. Fortunately, it looks like it might have eloped with Kansas’ shooting defense. Maybe they’re seeing a fertility specialist together? Have I over-milked this metaphor? Yes? Okay!

Although the two teams are clones on the offensive glass, Kansas appears to have an advantage in defensive rebounding.

Predictions: The line is not yet out, but KenPom projects a 2-point win for the Vols with a score of 66-64 and a 57% chance of winning. Our new Hoops Statsy Preview Machine, using 10 comps, likes the Vols by 6 (Tennessee 67, Kansas 61). Using all comps, it’s Tennessee 73, Kansas 68.

Details below.

Baseline

Here’s what each team looks like at this point of the season. Everything that follows includes a global caveat that these are season numbers, and both Tennessee and Kansas have been in a bit of a slump.

So, without accounting for opponent impact (see below for that), Kansas shoots better from three (no surprise there, right?), and Tennessee’s defense is quite a bit better. Vols have a slight edge at getting to the free throw line, but rebounding looks even.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

Conclusion: Among prior Vols’ opponents, Kansas looks most like Missouri, Vanderbilt, and App State.

Turnover %

Conclusion: Most like Alabama, App State, and Missouri in turning the ball over. Not bad, but not especially good, either.

Offensive Rebound %

Conclusion: Twinsies! Most like Florida and Texas A&M among prior Vols’ opponents.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusion: Ooh. They’re really not good at getting to the line. Most like Colorado and Vanderbilt here.

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

Conclusions

Goodness, fellas. Time to put a poster on a pole because we’ve gone and lost our stroke. Fortunately, Kansas’ defense appears to be missing as well. And Kansas isn’t much better at shooting, but they’ll be going up against Tennessee’s defense, which remains safely at home on the sofa.

Turnover %

Conclusions

The Vols are still doing pretty well at protecting the ball and exceptionally well at relieving their opponents of their most prized possessions. Kansas is not particularly good at either of those things, so chalk this up as a distinct advantage for the good guys.

Offensive Rebounding %

Conclusions

As I noted earlier, Tennessee and Kansas are identical twins on the offensive glass. However, the Jayhawks’ defensive rebounding appears to be better than Tennessee’s, so give this one to the Clown Birds. I don’t know how they jump with those puffy shoes, but hey.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusions

Tennessee gets to the foul line on a pretty regular basis, but Kansas is good at defending without fouling, so we’ll just have to see how that shakes out. On the other end, the Jayhawks don’t get nearly as many trips to Freeland, but the Vols have been fouling more often lately. So let’s consider this category a double shrug, meaning it could well be the deciding factor.

Go Vols.

Here’s the GRT Four Factors Forecast for Tennessee’s game against the Mississippi State Bulldogs tonight.

Summary and Score Prediction

Happy thoughts: In most categories, Mississippi State looks a lot like several teams that Tennessee has already beaten. Plus, the Vols appear to have a distinct advantage in turnovers on both ends of the court. Yeah, I know what you’re thinking. Keep reading.

Challenges: In many categories, Mississippi State looks a lot like the teams to which Tennessee just lost. In the midst of an uncharacteristic two-game skid, what should have been an advantage for Tennessee in turnovers has suddenly sprung a giant, gushing leak. Patching that thing pronto will be especially important this evening because the Bulldogs are exceptional on the offensive glass.

This game may simply come down to which team can earn the most extra opportunities — the Vols through turnovers or the Bulldogs through offensive rebounds.

The line is Tennessee -9.5, and with an over/under of 129.5, Vegas projects a score of something like Tennessee 69, Mississippi State 60. KenPom’s projection is also 69-60, Vols, which translates into an 81% chance of winning.

Our new Hoops Statsy Preview Machine likes the Vols by one additional point (Tennessee 70, Mississippi State 60). Using only the two closest comps, it’s Tennessee 72, Mississippi State 64.

Details below.

Baseline

Here’s what each team looks like at this point of the season. Everything that follows includes a global caveat that these are season numbers, and Tennessee is currently on a skid in many categories.

Hmm. More even than I was hoping. The Bulldogs shoot better from three, but they also allow opponents to hit more of them, so that could even out.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

Conclusion: From the standpoint of effective field goal percentage, the Vols have played a lot of teams that look nearly identical to Mississippi State. They beat all of them, with the exception of the rematch against Missouri during the aforementioned skid.

Turnover %

Conclusion: Uh-oh. I see a theme developing here. Among prior Vols opponents, the Bulldogs are most like Saint Joseph’s, Florida, and . . . Missouri. That would be just fine, thank you very much, except for the car fishtailing at the moment.

Offensive Rebound %

Conclusion: Ugh. This is not the best time to have to deal with the best offensive rebounding team we’ve played so far this season.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusion: Most like Florida at getting to the free throw line. Also not the best news at this time.

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

Conclusions

The Vols are really struggling to hit their shots, but fortunately, Mississippi State doesn’t appear to present too much of an obstacle to getting back in the groove. On the other end, it may be approaching time to drop the “elite” from the description of Tennessee’s defense, but they’re still plenty good. But see The Skid.

Turnover %

Conclusions

Just a few games ago, the Vols were exceptional at not turning the ball over. Now, their numbers are still decent but far from exceptional, thanks to an all-you-can-eat turnover binge during The Skid. They are still exceptional at forcing opponents into turnovers.

Offensive Rebounding %

Conclusions

When the Vols have the ball, things look pretty even on the boards. On the other end, though, the Bulldogs appear to have a decided advantage. They’re going to earn extra shots for themselves with offensive rebounds. The Vols can’t also give them extra opportunities via turnovers.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusions

Mississippi State defends well without fouling, so trips to the free throw line for the Vols could be few and far between. On the other end, it looks like business as usual.

Go Vols.

If you were looking for a pick-me-up this week with all the football drama, the basketball trip to Gainesville was not it. Maybe fewer of us were looking with all the football stuff going on. Either way, the Vols get another shot against a good team tomorrow night, as Missouri comes to Knoxville for the return match.

I wouldn’t expect another 20-point blowout; both Missouri and Tennessee were woeful at the free throw line the first time, so the game could go lots of different ways. And we’re unsure about the status of Jaden Springer, who continues to be Tennessee’s most productive option offensively on a per-minute basis.

What went wrong in Gainesville was similar to what went wrong against Alabama from a lineup perspective: Springer was hurt and Pons got two fouls early. In terms of efficiency, those are Tennessee’s best players on offense and defense. Unlike the battle with the Tide, the Vols never got back within striking distance in the second half against the Gators.

Tennessee’s defense is still second in the nation. When Pons is on the floor, it’s elite. I’m not worried about that part.

But Tennessee’s offense plummeted to 54th nationally in KenPom. It’s not a death sentence – the 2010 Elite Eight Vols finished 75th, though they played much of the SEC calendar at less than full strength – but it needs to improve if the Vols are going to get back into the conversation for the bracket’s top line. In that regard, the Vols were passed by Alabama in the span of about four hours Tuesday night: a 26-point loss in Gainesville followed by a 30-point win for Bama in Baton Rouge, and now the Tide are the SEC’s best team by any metric you’d like. And because of some scheduling advantages the rest of the way home, KenPom projects the Tide to finish a blistering 16-2 in league play, with the Vols at 13-5. We’ll see about all of that, but if you want to have that conversation, Tennessee needs to figure out its offense.

The four factor numbers aren’t bad: 21st in turnovers, 50th in offensive rebounding percentage, 52nd in free throw rate. Much of Tennessee’s struggle has been the old Cuonzo Martin frustration: “We didn’t make shots.”

Optimism alert!

Tennessee’s offense is still based in getting good shots through good ball movement. It’s not as white-hot in this department as it’s been the last three years; the Vols were fourth nationally in assist rate last season, it’s not purely a product of having Grant Williams and Admiral Schofield on your team. Tennessee is currently 47th nationally in that stat, but just 156th in effective field goal percentage. Hard to get assists when the shots won’t fall.

So if we like most of the looks, but want to do more than just hope for the law of averages, how can Tennessee get their most productive scorers more opportunities?

Among the top seven players, who takes the most shots for Tennessee?

Victor Bailey had something straight out of his nightmares against Florida: 1-of-10 in the first half, 1-of-12 overall, 0-of-6 from three, 2-of-6 at the line, and five turnovers. Gross.

Bailey’s turnovers and missed free throws were unusual, he’s been good in both departments this season. Do the Vols want him taking more shots than anyone else?

This happens in part because he’ll score from inside and outside the arc, and can be used in different ways more than John Fulkerson. And it may be happening because some of the perimeter alternatives are freshmen who may not have or feel the greenest of lights; Keon Johnson tried to assert himself early in the second half and it worked well in that initial spurt.

But in particular from three, Bailey’s volume shooting hasn’t helped the Vols: he’s currently the fourth-best three-point shooter on the team (behind Springer’s small sample size, Vescovi, and James), but he takes the second-most threes, trailing only Vescovi. Vescovi is 26-of-66 (39.4%) on the year. Bailey is 17-of-55 (30.4%).

Tennessee needs Springer to play, obviously. And so far, they really only want Vescovi to shoot threes and distribute, even off penetration: he’s 10-of-24 inside the arc. If you’re looking for better scoring inside the arc, that’s the same old answer: John Fulkerson.

Fulkerson is the team’s best scorer from two at 54.7%. He doesn’t turn it over very often when he gets it. And he gets to the free throw line (84th nationally) and knocks them down once there (77.8%). As Rick Barnes loves to point out, the Vols need more from Fulkerson. He steadied their ship when the waters got bumpy last year, and turned in an elite performance at Rupp Arena. It’s a different kind of bumpy early this season, with so many parts producing an offense that needs to get better. But a huge piece of that puzzle on this team will always be John Fulkerson from two.

Get Springer healthy. Have a more even distribution of who’s taking your threes. Get Fulkerson going from two. And maybe those averages will start feeling a little more friendly.

Here’s the GRT Four Factors Forecast for Tennessee’s game against the Missouri Tigers tomorrow night.

Summary and Score Prediction

The good news: When these two teams last met, Tennessee dominated. They won primarily on the strength of turnovers, excellent shooting, and terrific defense. While the shooting tends to ebb and flow, turnovers and defense appear to be pretty consistent and reliable characteristics of this team, the last game against the Gators notwithstanding.

The bad news: On paper, Tennessee and Missouri are almost strikingly similar, and they are exceptional at getting to the free throw line and on defense, the last game against the Vols notwithstanding. And Tennessee went Jekyll and Hyde earlier this week and somehow turned all of their pretties into big, fat uglies against the Gators. The last time out, Tennessee played well and Missouri played poorly. If both teams are on, this contest should be much, much closer. And the Vols are plenty capable of turning in a clunker.

The line isn’t out yet, but KenPom likes the Vols by 6 and puts the score at Tennessee 68, Missouri 62, which translates into a 71% chance of winning.

Our new Hoops Statsy Preview Machine likes the Vols by 7 (Tennessee 67, Missouri 60).

Details below.

Baseline

Here’s what each team looks like at this point of the season.

That looks remarkably even. Tennessee does appear to protect the ball better than Missouri, although that certainly wasn’t the case against Florida earlier this week.

Here’s how things played out the last time these two teams met:

The Vols dominated that game. Rebounding and getting to the free throw line were even, but Tennessee won on turnovers and shooting percentages on both ends of the floor.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

Conclusion: Among prior Tennessee opponents, Missouri’s effective shooting percentage is most like that of Colorado and Arkansas.

Turnover %

Conclusion: Most like Saint Joseph’s, Cincinnati, and USC Upstate. But Florida is the next-best.

Offensive Rebound %

Conclusion: Most like Vandy and Cincinnati on the offensive boards.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusion: These guys know how to get to the line. Only Texas A&M (among prior Vols’ opponents) is better.

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

Conclusions

Yikes. A little defense for you, and a little defense for me. Both teams really make it difficult on opposing offenses. Looking at those numbers, it should be the case that Tennessee’s offense struggles more than Missouri’s, but that’s not how it turned out the last time they played.

Turnover %

Conclusions

Turnovers were a big factor in the last matchup, and they could be again, as the Vols both protect the ball well and force opponents into a lot of turnovers, while Missouri appears to be generally bad at doing anything about it.

Offensive Rebounding %

Conclusions

On the boards, Tennessee should be able to create an advantage for itself by eating up more offensive rebounds than usual. Under the other basket, things look pretty even.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusions

Tennessee is getting to the free throw line surprisingly (to me, anyway) well, and Missouri does like to foul. And although the Tigers generally make a ton of trips to the stripe, they’re going up against a Tennessee team that does a pretty good job not fouling. Missouri did get six more trips than Tennessee the last time out.

Go Vols.