Tennessee-Ole Miss Four Factors Forecast: Imposed futility and dueling pickpockets

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Here’s the GRT Four Factors Forecast for Tennessee’s game against Ole Miss tonight.

What to Watch

Happy thoughts: The Rebels haven’t shot particularly well over the course of the season, and the Vols’ shooting defense has the potential to make them look downright silly this evening. Combine that with a posse of elite-level burglars and an advantage at getting to the free throw line, and Tennessee should get what they want tonight.

Challenges: But the Rebs are a rival gang of elite burglars themselves, and they appear to have an advantage on the offensive glass as well, so this is a no-coasting zone for the Vols.

Score Prediction

Vegas has Tennessee as a 4.5-point favorite, and with an over/under of 124.5, a score prediction of something like Tennessee 64, Ole Miss 60.

KemPom projects a 5-point win for the Vols (Tennessee 63, Ole Miss 58), which equates to a 64% chance of winning.

Our Hoops Statsy Preview Machine is slightly more optimistic, liking the Vols by 8 (Tennessee 69, Ole Miss 61). The Vols are scoring 111% of what their opponents usually allow, and allowing only 87% of what their opponents usually get.

Details below.


Baseline

Current numbers:

Tennessee looks better across the board, with the exception of offensive rebounds. That one is close enough to essentially be a push.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

Conclusion: Among prior Vols’ opponents, Ole Miss looks most like Tennessee Tech and Cincinnati in effective field goal shooting percentage.

Turnover %

Conclusion: Most like Florida and Mississippi State here.

Offensive Rebound %

Conclusion: Hmm. Another very good offensive rebounding team. Most like Arkansas. The good news is that among other good offensive rebounding teams, only Florida has resulted in a loss, and that may have been for other reasons.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusion: Most like App State at getting to the free throw line, and not as good as the Vols.

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

Conclusions

The Vols dropped shots against Kansas, but it’s going to take several games like that to erase a season’s worth of shooting woes. Ole Miss’ defense shouldn’t make progress in that department too difficult this evening.

On the other end, not only do the Rebels shoot poorly, the Vols’ defense has the very real potential to make them look downright silly.

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Turnover %

Conclusions

Hey, look. It’s Ocean’s 11 versus the Night Fox. We shall see about that, especially since we have our stuff locked up a little tighter than do the Rebs.

Offensive Rebounding %

Conclusions

Okay, a possible slight advantage here for Ole Miss. Both teams are decent on the offensive glass, but the Rebels are slightly better, and the teams look pretty much the same on the defensive end.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusions

Advantage, Tennessee.

Go Vols.

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