Tennessee-Mississippi State Four Factors Forecast: Vols in search of traction

Here’s the GRT Four Factors Forecast for Tennessee’s game against the Mississippi State Bulldogs tonight.

Summary and Score Prediction

Happy thoughts: In most categories, Mississippi State looks a lot like several teams that Tennessee has already beaten. Plus, the Vols appear to have a distinct advantage in turnovers on both ends of the court. Yeah, I know what you’re thinking. Keep reading.

Challenges: In many categories, Mississippi State looks a lot like the teams to which Tennessee just lost. In the midst of an uncharacteristic two-game skid, what should have been an advantage for Tennessee in turnovers has suddenly sprung a giant, gushing leak. Patching that thing pronto will be especially important this evening because the Bulldogs are exceptional on the offensive glass.

This game may simply come down to which team can earn the most extra opportunities — the Vols through turnovers or the Bulldogs through offensive rebounds.

The line is Tennessee -9.5, and with an over/under of 129.5, Vegas projects a score of something like Tennessee 69, Mississippi State 60. KenPom’s projection is also 69-60, Vols, which translates into an 81% chance of winning.

Our new Hoops Statsy Preview Machine likes the Vols by one additional point (Tennessee 70, Mississippi State 60). Using only the two closest comps, it’s Tennessee 72, Mississippi State 64.

Details below.

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Baseline

Here’s what each team looks like at this point of the season. Everything that follows includes a global caveat that these are season numbers, and Tennessee is currently on a skid in many categories.

Hmm. More even than I was hoping. The Bulldogs shoot better from three, but they also allow opponents to hit more of them, so that could even out.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

Conclusion: From the standpoint of effective field goal percentage, the Vols have played a lot of teams that look nearly identical to Mississippi State. They beat all of them, with the exception of the rematch against Missouri during the aforementioned skid.

Turnover %

Conclusion: Uh-oh. I see a theme developing here. Among prior Vols opponents, the Bulldogs are most like Saint Joseph’s, Florida, and . . . Missouri. That would be just fine, thank you very much, except for the car fishtailing at the moment.

Offensive Rebound %

Conclusion: Ugh. This is not the best time to have to deal with the best offensive rebounding team we’ve played so far this season.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusion: Most like Florida at getting to the free throw line. Also not the best news at this time.

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

Conclusions

The Vols are really struggling to hit their shots, but fortunately, Mississippi State doesn’t appear to present too much of an obstacle to getting back in the groove. On the other end, it may be approaching time to drop the “elite” from the description of Tennessee’s defense, but they’re still plenty good. But see The Skid.

Turnover %

Conclusions

Just a few games ago, the Vols were exceptional at not turning the ball over. Now, their numbers are still decent but far from exceptional, thanks to an all-you-can-eat turnover binge during The Skid. They are still exceptional at forcing opponents into turnovers.

Offensive Rebounding %

Conclusions

When the Vols have the ball, things look pretty even on the boards. On the other end, though, the Bulldogs appear to have a decided advantage. They’re going to earn extra shots for themselves with offensive rebounds. The Vols can’t also give them extra opportunities via turnovers.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusions

Mississippi State defends well without fouling, so trips to the free throw line for the Vols could be few and far between. On the other end, it looks like business as usual.

Go Vols.