Gameday on Rocky Top

The Vols remained at #5 in the College Football Playoff poll this week after two overtimes and many of our bedtimes. Shout out to Michigan State, giving the Vols an early transitive scrimmage win over Kentucky in basketball.

The top four speak for themselves, all undefeated at 10-0. LSU trails the Vols at six, and will get their chance against number one Georgia in a few weeks. USC is seven, with Clemson (#9) and North Carolina (#13) also still alive as potential one-loss conference champions.

While the Vols don’t control their own destiny, there are certainly clear-cut scenarios left out there. The happiest of those would include four of these five outcomes:

• The Ohio State/Michigan game is a blowout
• TCU loses at Baylor, then loses again in the Big 12 Championship Game
• Georgia beats LSU in the SEC Championship Game
• USC loses one of its remaining games (at UCLA, Notre Dame, Pac 12 Championship)
• Clemson (Miami, South Carolina) or North Carolina (Georgia Tech, NC State) loses one of its remaining regular season games, then beats the other in the ACC Championship Game

If all of those things happened, there would be no one-loss conference champions. Georgia is number one, the Ohio State/Michigan winner is number two, and the Vols have the no-doubt next best resume. Even if only four of those things happened, Tennessee would still be in excellent position to earn one of the top four spots.

The messiness comes with more and more of those outcomes falling through. TCU obviously controls its own fate and would get no arguments here. But you would get plenty of argument surrounding a group that looked like this:

• 11-1 Ohio State/Michigan loser in a close game
• 11-2 LSU beats Georgia in the SEC Championship Game
• 12-1 USC as Pac 12 Champion
• 12-1 Clemson or UNC as ACC Champion

If TCU is undefeated, you’ve got those four plus 11-1 Tennessee for the final spot. That’s a mess. It’s one the Vols still might come out on top of, currently sitting at number five and thus primed to move to number four after Ohio State/Michigan. But it would be a lengthy conversation.

The most likely outcome is, of course, somewhere between our best and worst case scenarios. But a couple of those would still present brand new scenarios for the committee to consider.

Here’s a look at the eight-year history of the College Football Playoff, from Wikipedia:

A couple things stand out here:

• Two teams made the playoffs without appearing in their conference championship game: 2016 Ohio State and 2017 Alabama. Both of those teams got in without a one-loss conference champion being left out. This made things much cleaner. But this also means if we’re comparing 11-1 Tennessee to 12-1 USC/TCU/Clemson on selection Sunday? Picking the Vols over a one-loss conference champion would represent a scenario that hasn’t happened before.
• 2016 Ohio State does give some precedent to the Vols getting in over SEC Champion LSU. That year, Penn State actually beat the Buckeyes head-to-head, then won the Big Ten. But their two losses – including 49-10 to Michigan – kept them out over Ohio State’s lone 24-21 loss in Happy Valley.

I count eight one-loss power five teams who got left out in the history of the playoff. Half of them involve the Big Ten. All of them seem to make sense:

• 2014 Baylor & 2014 TCU were famously left out in the first year of the playoff for four other undefeated or one-loss conference champions, which directly led to the return of the Big 12 Championship Game. That year is also the only non-covid time any one-loss team was seeded higher than an undefeated power five champion (Florida State), though the Noles still made the playoffs at #3.
• 2015 Iowa lost to Michigan State in the Big Ten Championship Game, putting 12-1 Sparty in and giving the Hawkeyes their first loss, leaving them out. Ohio State was also 11-1 this year with a narrow loss to Michigan State, but ended the season with just one ranked win. It didn’t matter for making the playoff, but the committee did put them behind 11-2 Pac-12 Champion Stanford in their final ranking.
• 2017 Wisconsin, like 2015 Iowa, was undefeated going to the Big Ten title game, but lost to Ohio State. The Buckeyes still didn’t get in at 11-2, left out for 11-1 (and eventual national champs) Alabama who didn’t make Atlanta. The committee went Alabama #4, Ohio State #5, Wisconsin #6.
• 2018 Ohio State won the Big Ten, but lost to Purdue 49-20 in the regular season. That year three teams finished the regular season undefeated, plus 12-1 Oklahoma, who got in at #4. Georgia was 11-2 and finished #5, then the Buckeyes.
• 2020 Texas A&M finished 8-1 in the pandemic year. They lost 52-24 to Alabama in the regular season, and finished #5 behind three undefeated/one-loss conference champions and 10-1 Notre Dame.
• 2021 Notre Dame lost head-to-head to Cincinnati in the regular season; the Bearcats got in as the first Group of Five teams to make the playoffs while Notre Dame finished fifth.

Purely based on historical precedent, Tennessee’s biggest competition at present among one-loss teams is USC. But I wouldn’t even completely rule out Clemson or North Carolina just yet, or TCU if it loses just one game. The good news is, we’re still talking about two theoretical spots left if/when TCU loses and not just one.

The Vols have to keep winning, and looking good doing it doesn’t hurt. We’d certainly prefer not to be in a situation where the committee has to do something they’ve never done before to put Tennessee in. But the Vols should still have an amazing resume if that conversation ultimately takes place.

We’ll cross more of that bridge when we need to. For now: Go Vols, Go Baylor, Go Bruins.

We’ve reached the final two games of the regular season, which means our boundaries are pretty clearly defined in expected wins. That’s usually true for Tennessee when we close the season with Vanderbilt; it’s especially true for this Tennessee team, playing with an inevitability they’ll take on the road to South Carolina this week. The Gamecocks just got drilled in Gainesville 38-6, and have beaten only Vanderbilt since a brief appearance in the Top 25.

The Vols remain at #5 in the polls this week, continuing to lead the pack among one-loss teams. Yesterday, we also got an old reminder of the intersection between football and basketball when football is having a good year. Tennessee’s unexpected loss to Colorado in Bridgestone Arena – with the Vols shooting just 16-of-63 (25.4%) from the floor – will fall to the outer edges of the radar while the playoff chase is on. It happens in ways we tend not to remember, which is the point: Bruce Pearl’s 2008 squad that eventually went to #1 lost 97-78 to Rick Barnes’ Texas squad on November 24, 2007…but it barely registered, because the Vols beat Kentucky to win the SEC East in football the same day. Buzz Peterson’s first team, coming off four straight NCAA Tournament appearances, lost to Marquette and St. John’s while the 2001 Vols were climbing the BCS ladder.

Barnes’ team will command a little more attention; the program’s rise under his watch has earned it. The Thanksgiving tournament next week should make for a great weekend build as the Vols prepare to close out the regular season with Vanderbilt. Between now and then, our eyes will continue to follow the teams around the Vols in the playoff chase this upcoming Saturday: TCU at Baylor at noon, USC at UCLA at 8:00 PM.

The football team continues to tread not only 90s ground, but best-of-the-90s ground. At five weeks in the Top 5, the 2022 Vols have been in the national conversation longer than many of the seasons we know and love. And with wins over South Carolina and Vanderbilt, they’ll have a chance to move into at least third place on this list:

(Shout out to the 1967 Vols, quickly becoming a modern-era benchmark, who spent seven weeks in the Top 5 themselves):

Tennessee Most Weeks in the Top 5 (since 1967):

• 13 weeks in 1998: September 19 through end of season (went to #4 after beating #2 Florida, finished #1)
• 9 weeks in 1997: Preseason through September 20 (lost to #2 Florida), November 8 through Orange Bowl (returned after beating #24 Southern Miss, finished #7 after loss to #2 Nebraska)
• 8 weeks in 1995: October 14 through end of season (went to #5 after beating #12 Alabama, finished #3)
• 7 weeks in 1999: Preseason through September 18 (lost to #4 Florida), October 9 through November 13 (returned after beating #10 Georgia, left after loss at Arkansas)
• 5 weeks in 2022 (and counting): October 15 through present

Enjoy the week. Don’t stop now.

When Missouri hit a 38-yard pass to make it 28-24 midway through the third quarter, were you worried?

Tennessee still had a sizeable statistical advantage, turned away twice on fourth down inside the Missouri 40 in the first half. The Tigers, meanwhile, had already gone three-and-out four times. It felt like Tennessee was in control.

And even after last week, Tennessee feeling in control has suddenly become normal.

I know this feeling, from my own childhood. We treated Florida one way, but just about everybody else the other: no matter what happens, we’ve got this. The number of times we’ve sat in Neyland Stadium and watched an underdog show some fight, still knowing the Vols have it under control because that’s what the Vols do…

It stopped being that way for a long time, of course. But again today, the comparisons are less about how different this is than the last 15 years. That’s how long it’s been since we went undefeated in Neyland. That’s how long it’s been since we won nine games in the regular season.

No, the better comparisons are now about how short the list is. This team isn’t just like the 90s. This team would hold its own against just about any of them.

9-1 Starts at Tennessee since 1970

• 1989: Finished 11-1, SEC Champions
• 1995: Finished 11-1, #3 Final Ranking
• 1997: Finished 11-2, SEC Champions
• 1998: Finished 13-0, National Champions
• 2001: Finished 11-2, SEC East Champions
• 2022: Currently 9-1

The Vols will almost certainly add “New Year’s Six”, at least, to that list. The playoff chase continues outside of Neyland Stadium; Oregon and TCU both find themselves in tight games as I write. All of that will or won’t work itself out. But Tennessee, asserting itself in a game it always had control of with national stakes in November?

There’s such comfort with this team.

By asserting itself, I mean three touchdowns in the next seven minutes of game time, 21 points in 13 offensive snaps. That sequence included two more Missouri three-and-outs, just for good measure. Tennessee just moves with such purpose; they are not perfect, but they are coming on every drive. The Vols punted twice today, staying on their average of two punts per SEC contest. One was with a 25-point lead. The other was because a holding penalty put Tennessee in 1st-and-20. Again, the only way to make this offense punt is to make it go backward.

And today, it went forward for 724 yards, a school record. The old record belonged to the 2012 Troy game, a “why aren’t we taking control?!” affair with a coach on his way out. Long live the new record, and this team on its way up.

We took our five year old son to the game today, his first. The weather could’ve been better, but I’m not sure anything else missed. Do I tell him, “Hey, 66 points doesn’t happen every week!” Or, “Hey, 724 yards has never happened, so maybe don’t get used to it?”

Because this – old and new and all of it – oh, we could get used to this.

What a gift this season is.

And it’s not at all over yet.

Go Vols.

Of all the benchmarks we can use for this turnaround, the happiest one is Missouri.

On October 2, 2021, the Vols went to Columbia at 2-2. Vanquished at Florida the week before in a second half that got out of hand, 38-14. An announced attendance of 82,203 to watch them fight but fall to Pittsburgh two weeks before that. The surest thing was status quo, and Missouri was a 2.5-point favorite.

And then somewhere in here, something started:

Lots of things have started here over the last 15 years, and some of them even took those next few steps. But they all ultimately faltered, making those first steps more easily forgotten, and harder to appreciate the next time.

These Vols have more than followed through on theirs, climbing so high it’s hard to even connect all the dots on the fly. But that first one – just 13 months ago, the first fruits of labors begun just 22 months ago – it’s hard to miss. Tennessee outperformed the spread by 40.5 points, the program’s best mark since 1994. They did it effortlessly.

And in these next three weeks, making it look that easy would go a long way again.

Fans think the Vols will get to that 11-1 finish. But it’s not as clear-cut as it might seem on the surface. Maybe it’s the ghosts of 2016, maybe it’s trying to find our footing after the Georgia loss. But in this week’s expected win total machine, fans give the Vols an 82.7% chance of victory against Missouri, 80.5% at South Carolina, and 93.8% at Vanderbilt. Add all that up, and you get an expectation of 11 wins…barely.

We’ve come a long way not just since Missouri last year, but since week two this year, when fans believed 7-5 was a hair more likely than 9-3. And now, we’ve been feeling 11-1 since beating Bama…it’s just a matter of hanging on to it.

And for Tennessee to get where they want to go in the College Football Playoff poll, they may need to do more than hang on.

The good news: Josh Heupel and this team tend not to discriminate. Tennessee stays on the accelerator against all comers, as both Missouri and South Carolina can attest to from last year. The Tigers never stopped Tennessee on that glorious afternoon. The following week, South Carolina found a brief respite in the third quarter by doing the one thing you have to try to do against this offense: make it go backward.

Hooker was sacked on three consecutive drives, allowing South Carolina to turn a 38-7 game into a 38-20 game, plus get the ball back one more time. The defense held, and the Vols punched it in a final time for the final margin. But putting the Vols in negative situations remains the best and perhaps only way to get past this offense.

Here’s an updated version of our question from the Georgia preview last week:

What Made Tennessee Punt?

• Florida: never punted
• LSU: 2Q Leading 20-0, three straight incompletions from the LSU 38
• LSU: 3Q Leading 30-7, offensive pass interference created 1st-and-19, punted on 4th-and-6
• Alabama: 2Q Leading 21-10: no gain, incomplete, complete to Fant for 7, punted on 4th-and-3 (muffed)
• Kentucky: 1Q Leading 7-0, offensive pass interference created 1st-and-25, punted on 4th-and-27 after holding penalty
• Kentucky: 2Q Leading 20-6, sack on first down created 2nd-and-18, punted on 4th-and-8
• Kentucky: 3Q Leading 37-6, false start on first down created 1st-and-15, sack on third down created 4th-and-20
• Georgia: 1Q Trailing 7-3, false start on first down, punted on 4th-and-6
• Georgia: 1Q Trailing 7-3, 75-yard punt leads to sack on 3rd-and-6, punted from the end zone
• Georgia: 1Q Trailing 14-3: run for 2, run for 3, incomplete, punted on 4th-and-5 at the UT 41
• Georgia: 3Q Trailing 24-6: sacked on first down at the UGA 41, sacked again on 3rd down

In Tennessee’s 10 punts in five SEC contests, seven have come because of a sack or a penalty. No teams have had consistent success stopping this offense from going forward. But if you can make it go backward – or if the Vols do that to themselves via penalties – you can get it off the field.

Is this Missouri defense good enough to make the Vols go backward? Will we see them sell out to try, especially after last week? It’s a good test right away to see how the Vol offense will continue to adapt and go forward; they’ll get another chance next week to face a hostile environment and put those skills to the test on the road as well.

We’ve come a very long way, those first steps taken, over and over again, at Missouri and vs South Carolina last fall. Can the Vols take them again in these last few weeks? Can Tennessee learn and grow from Athens, and extend itself against these two defenses once more?

Do that, and the biggest goals – the ones we still dreamed of somewhere deep in our hearts and our memories all those months ago, even after all those years – will still be right in front of this team.

Go Vols.

Here’s the question now: how confident are you the Vols will go 3-0 the next three weeks?

That starts this week with Mizzou, who was blown out 40-12 at Kansas State in week two. The Wildcats are #23 in the land this week, so we probably weren’t giving them enough credit back then. Since then, Missouri has four one-possession losses to Auburn, Georgia, Florida, and Kentucky. The Tigers also beat Vanderbilt 17-14, and won at South Carolina in their best performance, 23-10. In each of those six SEC games, the Tigers scored between 17-23 points, and gave up between 10-26 points.

Much of the conversation about Tennessee will come into picture once we see the playoff poll tomorrow night. There are no opportunities left for quality wins on Tennessee’s regular season schedule (unless South Carolina beats Florida and Clemson on the way in, but that might get in the way of Florida becoming a quality win if they win out). But if Tennessee’s resume was good enough for #1 last week, one would assume it’s not going to fall so far to remove the Vols from the conversation this week.

Just keep winning.

I’ve been down with the flu for the past few days, and I feel like this game fit that mood perfectly: stuffy, sleepy, body aches, all that. Credit the defending champs for playing like it: Georgia’s defense may or may not have the first round picks of the 2021 squad, but they were a force today. Where Alabama largely tried to create pressure from its front and failed, Georgia got Tennessee out of rhythm – and the Vols did that to themselves plenty too – then blitzed repeatedly. It worked: Hooker was sacked seven times, and finished with 17 yards rushing on 18 attempts. In last year’s matchup: six sacks, 17 carries for 7 yards.

No disrespect to the 12:00 PM Baton Rouge crowd, but this was the first championship-level test for this group of players on the road, and like many things, we’re not great at it on the first try. The Vols did do some good things, especially defensively. I’m not sure how we properly rate the second half, or how much Georgia wanted to push the issue in the rain, wary of what Tennessee’s own offense had done coming in. But though the Vol offense struggled on this day, the defense held the Dawgs to 3.5 yards per carry, their lowest total in two years. Georgia, again, made several big third down conversions early, finishing 7-of-12. And they hit the big plays the Vols were never able to find.

#Vols coach Josh Heupel: We just weren't good enough today. We didn't make critical plays in critical spots.

— Wes Rucker (@wesrucker247) November 5, 2022

So, a tip of the cap to the champs for a well-deserved win. The Vols will be big favorites over Missouri, South Carolina, and Vanderbilt; win those, and the New Year’s Six is the worst thing that’s going to happen to you. The program goal is getting ready to be, “Can you make a 12-team playoff?” These Vols would be on their way.

Can this team make a four-team playoff? Sure. Here’s what we need now:

• Losses from Clemson and TCU. The Tigers are at Notre Dame tonight, then finish by hosting Louisville, Miami, and South Carolina. TCU is at Texas, at Baylor, then hosts Iowa State, plus a potential Big 12 Championship Game. Keep an eye on the playoff poll on Tuesday; the Vols starting at #1 is an obvious advantage, let’s see where UT lands in proximity to these other teams. (Notre Dame blocked punt right on cue let’s gooooooooooooooooo)
• Does Alabama really matter now? If the Tide win out, they’re in. If they lose anywhere along the way, that’s two losses. So I’m not sure how concerned we should be with Alabama’s placement as it relates to Tennessee (though sure, it would be crazy to have the Vols behind them, even if Bama blows LSU out…which we’ve already done).
• Is 11-1 Tennessee more attractive than the loser of Ohio State/Michigan? This part may not matter by Thanksgiving Weekend anyway, but if the field is still crowded, you’d like a blowout in that game if both teams arrive undefeated.

If you pencil in Georgia and the OSU/Michigan winner, two spots are left. An 11-1 Tennessee wouldn’t get in over an undefeated Clemson or TCU. But they’ll have a good case otherwise.

Lots of story left to be written here, and a good ending is still out there.

Y’all know what to watch today — No. 1 Tennessee at No. 3 Georgia on CBS at 3:30 — but we haven’t had much reason lately to also watch The Race, which adds a great deal to the fun of a college football season. So here are some other games to watch that could impact Tennessee’s place in the postseason.

The full GRT college football TV schedule for the week is at the bottom of the post, but first is our suggested viewing schedule curated just for Vols fans.

Gameday, November 5, 2022

Full searchable college football TV schedule

Here’s the entire searchable and sortable college football TV schedule for this week:

Tennessee opened as an 8- to 11.5-point underdog to Georgia this week, with most being around the -8.5 mark. As I’m writing this, the line has settled to Georgia -7.5 to -8.5. Hat Guy’s un-eyeballed numbers had Georgia as a 16-point favorite. Let’s take a closer look at how he got there, why we should probably call in the replay officials, and what the pick should be.

First, how he got there:

From the perspective of Tennessee

Tennessee’s points

The Georgia scoring defense of 10.5 is most similar to the following prior FBS Tennessee opponents this year:

• Alabama 16.6
• Kentucky 19.9

Tennessee scored 52 points against Alabama and 44 points against Kentucky, a combined 263% of what those teams usually give up. Applying that to Georgia’s scoring defense of 10.5 results in a prediction of 27.6 points for the Vols.

Georgia’s points

The Georgia scoring offense of 41.8 is most similar to the following prior FBS Tennessee opponents this year:

• Alabama 43.1
• LSU 35.1

Tennessee gave up 49 points to Alabama but only 13 to LSU. Taken together, that’s 79% of what those teams usually score. Applying that to Georgia’s scoring offense of 41.8 results in a prediction of 33 points for Georgia against the Vols.

Estimated score: Tennessee 27.6, Georgia 33

From the perspective of Georgia

Georgia’s points

Tennessee’s scoring defense of 21 is most similar to the following prior Georgia FBS opponents this year:

• Missouri 21.5
• South Carolina 24.6

Georgia scored 26 points against Missouri and 48 points against South Carolina. Taken together, that’s 160% of what those teams usually give up, which when applied to the Vols results in a prediction of 33.6 points for the Bulldogs.

Tennessee’s points

The Tennessee scoring offense of 49.4 is most similar to the following prior Georgia FBS opponents this year:

• Oregon 42.4
• South Carolina 30.3

Georgia allowed only 3 points to Oregon and only 7 to South Carolina, a frightening 14% of what those teams usually put on the board. Applied to Tennessee, that results in a mere 6.9 points for the Vols against the Dawgs.

Estimated score: Georgia 33.6, Tennessee 6.9

Combined Estimated Score

If you put those two score predictions in a blender and mix ’em up, you end up with this:

Georgia 33.3, Tennessee 17.3 (Georgia -16)

Difference between Hat Guy’s prediction and the Vegas opening spread (UGA -8.5): 7.5

That makes this one an uneasy one for Hat Guy, meaning he’s only kinda confident about his conclusion that Georgia will cover at -8.5 points.

Eyeball adjustments

I honestly can’t tell whether its my eyeballs, my heart, my mind, or my hunger that object so strongly to the idea that this Tennessee offense is going to score only 7 points. Or 17. Or even 28, although that is at least approaching reasonableness. So let’s look closer at those numbers.

First, the analysis from Georgia’s perspective predicts only 6.9 points for the Vols. Why? Because they held an Oregon offense now averaging 42 points to a single field goal and a South Carolina offense now averaging 30 points to a single touchdown. As Hat Guy points out, the Georgia defense limited the two best offensive comps to 14% of their usual capacity. But if you don’t limit the comps to two games and instead include all games, that 14% number goes up to 41%. That’s still good, but it’s not a bankruptcy sale. Applied to Tennessee, that would mean a little over 20 points for the Vols, not 7. It would also change the combined estimated points for the Vols from 17.3 to 24. So call it Georgia 33, Vols 24 (UGA -9).

But what about that prediction of 27.6 points for the Vols from their own perspective? Is that correct? The math is right, and Tennessee’s offense scoring 263% of what the two next-best defenses usually give up sounds impressive. But when it’s applied to Georgia’s current average points allowed per game of 10.5, it still only adds up to 27.6. The fewest points Tennessee has scored this season is 34 against Pitt in Week 2. Alabama’s defense was allowing only 12.5 points per game when they played the Vols, and the Vols put 52 on them. Kentucky’s defense was allowing only 16.4 when they ran into the Heuper Drive and gave up 44. So forget the percentages and just look at what Tennessee did against really, really good defenses (hopefully) not that much different than Georgia’s: They averaged 48 points. That would make the combined points prediction for Tennessee 36 instead of 24. Even if you scraped another 10 points off the top just because it’s Georgia, you’d get a combined points prediction for the Vols of 31, three points less than any game they’ve played so far this season.

I think Tennessee’s offense has exposed disembodied Hat Guy’s Achilles Heel, namely applying percentages to super low numbers. I do think Georgia gets 33 points, give or take, and Tennessee ends up somewhere between 31 and 38. My mind says Georgia 33, Tennessee 31. Everything else in me is saying, “Nope.” Final answer: Tennessee 38, Georgia 35.

Other predictions from other systems

Vegas mostly had Georgia as an 8.5-point favorite when the lines opened this week. With an over/under of 65-66, that translates to something like Georgia 37, Tennessee 29.

Bill Connelly’s SP+ likes Georgia by 9.2 (Bulldogs 33.5, Vols 24.3) and gives the Vols a mere 14% chance of winning.

Summary

• Vegas: Georgia 37, Tennessee 29 (Bulldogs -8.5)
• SP+: Georgia 33.5, Tennessee 24.3 (Georgia covers)
• Hat Guy: Georgia 33.3, Tennessee 17.3 (Georgia covers easily)
• Me: Tennessee 38, Georgia 35 (Vols win a close one)

What do y’all think?

In a four-team playoff, there may still be opportunity for the loser on Saturday. Because of that, it’s hard to quantify exactly where this game falls on the list of, you know, “biggest ever.”

But I do know this: if Clemson, TCU, and the Ohio State/Michigan winner remain undefeated, it’s very unlikely the loser is getting in. You give up control of your own destiny. So I don’t know if this will end up being remembered as the biggest game since xyz…but it very well might be. Might as well win it.

The calendar is always such a factor, and the truth is, we never really know. Other than the BCS Championship Game, we didn’t really know our favorite memories from 1998 could become some of our favorite memories ever at kickoff. This is how 2001 Florida, the only non-98 comparison to what we’ve seen this year, gets so high up the list: you knew all the stakes, the rewards and the consequences.

We don’t know all the consequences here. But we absolutely know the rewards. So how can the Vols get them?

Tennessee may be evolving beyond its most reliable predictor of success: Hendon Hooker’s rushing/sacks allowed. The Vols remain 11-1 when Hooker averages 3+ yards per carry as a starter, with the lone loss coming against Ole Miss last year. He averaged 8.6 per carry against Florida, 5.6 at LSU, and 4.0 against Alabama.

But the Vols are now 3-4 when he doesn’t. One of those wins is the Pitt game, which turned ugly early and stayed that way for much of the day, an overtime affair the Vols won. But against Kentucky, Hooker ran just 10 times for 23 yards…and Tennessee rolled.

Clearly, the Vol offense can get it going even without Hooker’s legs. But I do still think pass protection is a huge piece of the equation.

Here’s a fun game I like to call:

What made Tennessee punt?

• Florida: never punted
• LSU: 2Q Leading 20-0, three straight incompletions from the LSU 38
• LSU: 3Q Leading 30-7, offensive pass interference created 1st-and-19, punted on 4th-and-6
• Alabama: 2Q Leading 21-10: no gain, incomplete, complete to Fant for 7, punted on 4th-and-3 (muffed)
• Kentucky: 1Q Leading 7-0, offensive pass interference created 1st-and-25, punted on 4th-and-27 after holding penalty
• Kentucky: 2Q Leading 20-6, sack on first down created 2nd-and-18, punted on 4th-and-8
• Kentucky: 3Q Leading 37-6, false start on first down created 1st-and-15, sack on third down created 4th-and-20

Of those seven punts in Tennessee’s four SEC wins, six came with the Vols already in front by at least two possessions. The other, of course, is the 4th-and-27 punt from last week. But you can sense a pattern: two drives stopped by OPIs, two others by sacks.

Again, not rocket science: the best way to slow down this offense is to put them in negative yardage, or hope the officials agree with your interpretation. Tennessee does remain one of the most penalized teams in the nation (122nd in penalties per game, 124th in penalty yards per game). The defending champs are fifth in flags per game and 15th in penalty yards per game. Something to keep an eye on, especially on the road.

One big question this week is impossible to answer until gametime: how much better was last year’s historic Georgia defense compared to this one? If you’re looking for Hooker’s worst performance as a runner, it’s easily that game last season: 17 carries for seven yards, sacked six times.

And yet, the Vols scored 17 points and had their chances for more:

• 1Q 7-7: 3rd-and-1 at the UT 34, Hooker run for no gain, punt
• 3Q 24-10 UGA: 4th-and-4 at the UGA 17, incomplete
• 3Q 27-10 UGA: 4th-and-13 at the UGA 39 (after sacked on 2nd-and-6), incomplete
• 4Q 34-10 UGA: 3rd-and-6 at the UGA 7, Hooker sacked and fumbled

Where’s the line between the improvement of Tennessee’s offense and the rebuild/reload of Georgia’s defense?

Perhaps more important to victory on Saturday: how often can Tennessee’s own defense get off the field?

Here’s how the Vols let Georgia off the hook last year:

• 1Q 7-0 UT: 3rd-and-7 at the UGA 44, Stetson Bennett run for 13 yards
• 2Q 10-7 UT: 3rd-and-8 at the UT 38, Bennett to McConkey for 14 yards
• 2Q 17-10 UGA: 3rd-and-7 at the UGA 30, Bennett to Mitchell for 11 yards
• 2Q 17-10 UGA: 3rd-and-5 at the UT 32, Bennett to Mitchell for 9 yards
• 3Q 24-10 UGA: 3rd-and-10 at the UT 40, Bennett to Bowers for 14 yards

The Dawgs ended the day just 5-of-12 on third down, but each of their five conversions was at 5+ yards to go. When you get the chance to get off the field against this bunch, you have to take it.

Georgia also gashed the Vols in the red zone last year, with no real down-and-distance opportunities for the Vols to stop them. I’ll be curious to see if Tennessee’s much-improved red zone defense can make that part a factor in this year’s game.

In our expected win total machine, fans are giving the Vols a 46.1% chance of victory. On the road, that feels like a toss-up number, which says a lot about how far we’ve come. Can the Vols protect Hooker and avoid going backwards on offense? And can the defense get off the field on third-and-medium?

Do that, and we’ll be projecting 12 regular season wins come Monday.

Go Vols.

For a while this season, I found myself waiting for enough distance to be sure we were out of the wilderness. Some of this is the ghosts of 2016, for sure. But coming in, that was a good goal for the 2022 season: put together the best year in 15 years, win 9 or 10 games, compete. Make progress. Have a season where, when it ended, we could all look back at it and say, “Yep, good job.”

And now, in part I find myself reminded of the Israelites: fresh out of Egypt, but because that was all they knew for so long, they still find themselves looking back. Meanwhile, the miraculous is happening all around them. And you don’t want to miss a single step of it.

That’s still the problem, in part: we believed there were steps to this, and maybe these Vols could take one or two this year. There are certainly supposed to be steps between 7-6 and 8-0. None of us ever dreamed it could happen so fast.

In fact, that’s one of my favorite things about blogging: there are more easily accessible ways to go back and see what you thought two years ago, or fifteen years ago, or whatever. And to do so is often humbling.

After a series of low points – Kiffin leaving, Kentucky in 2011, the back half of 2016, the vulnerability of Schiano Sunday – the Vols hit the last of these places in 2020. From halftime of the Georgia game, it was a steep fall to Kentucky, still the worst loss in terms of underperforming the spread in 40 years.

But after that, two trips to Arkansas and Auburn in November 2020 really put things in perspective. Against a Razorback team that went 2-10 in consecutive years in 2018 and 2019, Sam Pittman’s year one squad turned a 13-0 halftime deficit into a 24-13 Arkansas win. In that second half, Tennessee went three-and-out three times, then four-and-out, then three-and-out, then two interceptions. (Pittman’s Arkansas teams are a good example of the kind of step-based success that would’ve been welcomed here!)

At Auburn two weeks later (the covid year had all these bye weeks that made everything, you know, longer) the Vols again jumped to a two-possession lead, watched Auburn go back in front 13-10, then fired a 100-yard pick six late in the third quarter.

Around this time, we started writing about things in terms of exile, and not just wilderness. How a stiff neck won’t get you out any faster. And not to believe the prophets who tell you this can all be over soon.

And that, of course, is the thing.

Not only are the Vols clearly out of the wilderness, two years later.

Tennessee is the number one team in the country.

The miraculous is happening all around us.

It’s in my nature to be supportive, to rally around current coaches, all that. And I come up short on that plenty still.

And sometimes we just get it wrong. I was wrong about the amount of time it would take Tennessee to move forward from two years ago.

But I’m not sure I should have been.

We fans all want the sure thing, which never really exists. No one believed Josh Heupel was it two Januarys ago. And the longer you’ve been away, the more your stomach growls.

You don’t get out of the wilderness with a stiff neck. I think it’s more about simple obedience. Which, in this case, was the very non-rocket science answer of:

• Hire an athletic director who is really good at their job
• Let them hire a football coach who is also really good at his job

For all the ups and downs of a season that, if Tennessee makes it to the national championship game, is still only 53% over? My most emotional moment remains the morning of the Alabama game, watching the opening of College Gameday. Watching a song I’ve poked fun at more often than not. A song Tennessee used to be in, and then they took us out.

Even if Tennessee wins it all this year and Heupel stays forever, we won’t always be ranked number one. You can also miss the miracle of the moment by looking too far ahead. But right now, Tennessee is in the national championship conversation. One that’s getting ready to expand to 12 teams.

That’s the goal. Be there. And right now, the Vols certainly are.

And then when you make it all the way to the top? Man, be grateful.

I have no idea what’s left in these last 5-7 games. But we’re way past belief now, and into expectation. It’s Heupel’s own line about not putting a timetable on ourselves, just being as good as we can as fast as we can.

And this team is much better, much faster than it had any right to be.

There will be more time in the off-season to dive into all that. I simply use it today as a way of helping us not miss the miraculous.

Because it is happening all around us.

Go Vols.