Expected Win Totals, Basketball, & AP Top 5 History at UT

We’ve reached the final two games of the regular season, which means our boundaries are pretty clearly defined in expected wins. That’s usually true for Tennessee when we close the season with Vanderbilt; it’s especially true for this Tennessee team, playing with an inevitability they’ll take on the road to South Carolina this week. The Gamecocks just got drilled in Gainesville 38-6, and have beaten only Vanderbilt since a brief appearance in the Top 25.

The Vols remain at #5 in the polls this week, continuing to lead the pack among one-loss teams. Yesterday, we also got an old reminder of the intersection between football and basketball when football is having a good year. Tennessee’s unexpected loss to Colorado in Bridgestone Arena – with the Vols shooting just 16-of-63 (25.4%) from the floor – will fall to the outer edges of the radar while the playoff chase is on. It happens in ways we tend not to remember, which is the point: Bruce Pearl’s 2008 squad that eventually went to #1 lost 97-78 to Rick Barnes’ Texas squad on November 24, 2007…but it barely registered, because the Vols beat Kentucky to win the SEC East in football the same day. Buzz Peterson’s first team, coming off four straight NCAA Tournament appearances, lost to Marquette and St. John’s while the 2001 Vols were climbing the BCS ladder.

Barnes’ team will command a little more attention; the program’s rise under his watch has earned it. The Thanksgiving tournament next week should make for a great weekend build as the Vols prepare to close out the regular season with Vanderbilt. Between now and then, our eyes will continue to follow the teams around the Vols in the playoff chase this upcoming Saturday: TCU at Baylor at noon, USC at UCLA at 8:00 PM.

The football team continues to tread not only 90s ground, but best-of-the-90s ground. At five weeks in the Top 5, the 2022 Vols have been in the national conversation longer than many of the seasons we know and love. And with wins over South Carolina and Vanderbilt, they’ll have a chance to move into at least third place on this list:

(Shout out to the 1967 Vols, quickly becoming a modern-era benchmark, who spent seven weeks in the Top 5 themselves):

Tennessee Most Weeks in the Top 5 (since 1967):

  • 13 weeks in 1998: September 19 through end of season (went to #4 after beating #2 Florida, finished #1)
  • 9 weeks in 1997: Preseason through September 20 (lost to #2 Florida), November 8 through Orange Bowl (returned after beating #24 Southern Miss, finished #7 after loss to #2 Nebraska)
  • 8 weeks in 1995: October 14 through end of season (went to #5 after beating #12 Alabama, finished #3)
  • 7 weeks in 1999: Preseason through September 18 (lost to #4 Florida), October 9 through November 13 (returned after beating #10 Georgia, left after loss at Arkansas)
  • 5 weeks in 2022 (and counting): October 15 through present

Enjoy the week. Don’t stop now.

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VolsDeep
VolsDeep
1 year ago
Reply to  Will Shelton

95% at Vandy?

HixsonVol
HixsonVol
1 year ago

Drinking the Orange Kool Aid while wearing my Big Orange tinted sunglasses. GBO.

Your expected win total is 11.0.
Your details:
vs Ball State: 100%
at Pittsburgh: 100%
vs Akron: 100%
vs Florida: 100%
at LSU: 100%
vs Alabama: 100%
vs UT-Martin: 100%
vs Kentucky: 100%
at Georgia: %
vs Missouri: 100%
at South Carolina: 98%
at Vanderbilt: 99%

VolsDeep
VolsDeep
1 year ago

Your expected win total is 10.9.Your details:
vs Ball State: 100%
at Pittsburgh: 100%
vs Akron: 100%
vs Florida: 100%
at LSU: 100%
vs Alabama: 100%
vs UT-Martin: 100%
vs Kentucky: 100%
at Georgia: %
vs Missouri: 100%
at South Carolina: 95%
at Vanderbilt: 99%

Mr B
Mr B
1 year ago

10.7… I am always impressed with SEC road wins. A motivated SEC defense with a little hope in the second half can make a game interesting. Also, a team that has nothing to lose. This game, the next game “it just means more”. Go Vols!

Sam Hensley
Sam Hensley
1 year ago
Reply to  Will Shelton

I wonder why we dislike Florida so much around here…

Tom Turley
Tom Turley
1 year ago

Thanks for the shout-out to the ’67 Vols. I still recall my disappointment when Karl Kremser’s kick to win the Orange Bowl sailed wide right. This week, my confidence is back: 10.8 (85% at South Carolina, 90% at Vanderbilt). Sadly, the ‘Dores made our Kentucky win look a little less impressive.

Harley
Harley
1 year ago

10.9… with 95 at SC and Vandy. Keep focus and keep pouring on the points. Go Vols!

Sam Hensley
Sam Hensley
1 year ago

Your expected win total is 10.9
90% and 97%

Last edited 1 year ago by Sam Hensley
Isaac Bishop
Isaac Bishop
1 year ago

Your expected win total is 10.9.
Your details:

at South Carolina: 90%

at Vanderbilt: 95%

South Carolina
They’re missing their top two RBs for the game. Also, the punter scares me more than Rattler as a passer.

52-14 Vols

Vandy
Happy they finally got an SEC win! Unfortunately for them it was against a team that lost by nearly 40 to the Vols.