Category Archives: Football

Happy Thanksgiving, everyone.

In this space last weekend, we published our weekly statsy preview with the subtitle The comps have to be wrong about this game, right? The GRT SPM spit out a (rounded) score of Missouri 40, Tennessee 17, a prediction so offensive to my eyes and guts that I just ignored it and made my official prediction 31-27 notwithstanding any of the comps.

Immediately after the game that ended in a 50-17 Tigers win, the SPM texted me a sticking-out-your-tongue emoji, which was a total shock to me because I had no idea it even had a tongue. Or a face, for that matter. I reminded it that it was wrong about the Kentucky game, and the conversation ended there.

Anyway . . . This week, the SPM mostly agrees with Vegas, my eyes, and my gut, and is expecting a close one between the Vols and Commodores Saturday. So, we can all agree this week that we hope we’re all wrong and end up with a repeat of the game against the Wildcats.

Predictions

SPM: Vanderbilt 20, Tennessee 17.8

Eye- and gut-adjusted: Vanderbilt 21, Tennessee 20

Tennessee rushing yards: 160

Tennessee passing yards: 220

Vanderbilt rushing yards: 140

Vanderbilt passing yards: 180

Tennessee points: 20

Vanderbilt points: 21

Spread: Vanderbilt, -1

Tennessee rushing

Tennessee is averaging 131.5 rushing yards per game. Vanderbilt is giving up 194.9 per game on the ground, which makes them the worst rushing defense the Vols have seen all season. The closest comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent that is better at defending the run than Vanderbilt is South Carolina, which is allowing 192.3. But Tennessee only got 144 on the ground against the Gamecocks.

Based on all of that, my guess for rushing yards for Tennessee against Vanderbilt is 160.

Tennessee passing

Tennessee is averaging 201.6 passing yards per game, and Vanderbilt is allowing 241.1. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is West Virginia, which is giving up 244.1 yards per game through the air. A brand spanking new Tennessee team still finding itself put up only 172 against them in the first game of the season for both teams.

On the other hand, the closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Charlotte, which is allowing 225.0 passing yards per game, and Tennessee got only 172 against them.

My eye and gut tell me that Tennessee can do better through the air than it did against either West Virginia early or Charlotte late, and that’s supported by the numbers when you look at them from Vandy’s perspective. Arkansas is averaging 197.5 passing yards per game, and they got 240 against the ‘Dores. Florida, which averages 213.8, got 284. So, the Vols should do better than their average through the air against Vanderbilt Saturday.

Based on that, I’m saying that Tennessee will get somewhere around 220 passing yards this weekend.

Vanderbilt rushing

The Tennessee defense is allowing 159.5 rushing yards per game, while the Vanderbilt run game is averaging 162.8 yards per game. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is West Virginia, which is getting 162.0 yards per game on the ground, and they got 118 against Tennessee. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Auburn, which is averaging 167.2 rushing yards per game and got 126 against Tennessee.

So, it would appear that Tennessee’s rush defense, with all of its faults, has generally held similar teams to below their average on the ground.

The data from Vandy’s perspective is a mixed bag. On one hand, we’re most like Arkansas (giving up an average of 166.6 rushing yards per game) to them, and they put up 250 against the Hogs. On the other hand, the next closest comp for them is Kentucky (giving up 137.5), and they only got 68 against the Cats. We’re right in the middle.

Based on all of that, I’m guessing Vanderbilt will get about 140 rushing yards against Tennessee’s defense.

Vanderbilt passing

The Tennessee pass defense is allowing 209.8 passing yards per game. Vanderbilt is getting 228.6. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Georgia, which is getting 226.4 yards per game through the air, and they got 190 against Tennessee. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is South Carolina, which is averaging 262.0 passing yards per game and got 152 against Tennessee.

The Vols getting torched last week by Missouri and Drew Lock notwithstanding, I think their secondary is capable, so I’m going with Vanderbilt putting up about 180 passing yards against Tennessee.

Tennessee scoring

Tennessee is averaging 23.6 points per game, and Vanderbilt is allowing 26.2. This makes them nearly identical to Missouri, which is allowing 26.6 points per game. The Vols managed only 17 against the Tigers.

The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is West Virginia. They’re allowing 23.3 points per game, and Tennessee got only 14 against them.

As much as I hate to say it, it appears that the Tennessee offense has a ceiling on the number of points it can score. This feels strange, because at times the offense looks quite capable. But 11 games of data says Tennessee’s not likely to score more than its average of 24 points unless it’s playing ETSU or having an outlier game against Auburn.

And yet, it’s Vanderbilt, it’s the last game of the regular season, and there’s a bowl game on the line, so maybe that’s worth a few points.

My prediction is that Tennessee will put up around 20 against Vanderbilt.

Vanderbilt scoring

Tennessee is allowing 27.0 points per game. Vanderbilt is averaging 26.7.

The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Kentucky, which is averaging 23.9 points, and they got 7 against Tennessee. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Auburn, which is averaging 28.9 points and got 24 against Tennessee.

So, the Vols have done well to really well against opponents with the most similar scoring averages, which is obviously good news.

I’m going with Vanderbilt putting up about 21 points against Tennessee.

Comparison of predictions to other models and Vegas

The Vegas spread favors Vanderbilt by 3-3.5, with an over/under of 50.5-51, which converts to something like 27-24, Vandy.

Bill Connelly’s S&P+ says Tennessee has a 44% chance of winning and puts the score at Vanderbilt 31.6, Tennessee 29, a spread of -2.6.

ESPN’s FPI gives the Vols a 38.7% chance of winning.

Left alone, the SPM says Vanderbilt 20, Tennessee 17.8, a spread of -2.2.

After eye- and gut-adjustments, I’m going with Vanderbilt 21, Tennessee 20, a spread of -1. That’s an even closer prediction than the Tennessee-Kentucky game, so let’s hope for a similar result.

Thursday and Friday

There’s a fun weekend of football ahead to go along with your turkey and shopping. The Egg Bowl kicks Thanksgiving night, and Friday features a couple of Top 25 matchups, including one between former Vols’ opponent No. 13 West Virginia going up against No. 6 Oklahoma.

 

 

Gameday

 

The noon slate features a couple of appetizers, including the big rivalry between No. 4 Michigan and No. 10 Ohio State. There are also a couple of other games that include former Vols’ opponents in case you’re still interested in how the Bulldogs and Gators are doing.

Tennessee plays Vanderbilt at 4:00 on the SEC Network, so that’s your main event as a Vols fan. But the Iron Bowl is going on at the same time. Figure Alabama to roll, but rivalries can get funky, so keep an eye on it just in case.

In the evening, there are a couple of additional rivalry games featuring former Vols’ opponents Kentucky (against Louisville) and South Carolina (against Clemson.)

Full sortable and searchable college football TV schedule

It’s time to check in on the Vols’ rankings in all of the official NCAA statistical rankings. The following compares the team’s rankings after the 2017 season to those so far in 2018. There’s a fair amount of improvement in most places.

Offense

Defense

Special Teams

Turnovers and Penalties

 

In this space each week of the regular season, we update our expected win totals for the season using our projected win total machine. With only one game left, the only remaining question is what odds you’re giving Tennessee to beat Vanderbilt this week in Nashville. I’ve left the calculator in the post in case you want to use it, but mostly I wanted to use the information we’ve been compiling here each week to briefly summarize the season and what the Vols have and have not yet been able to accomplish.

• West Virginia: #17 at the time, #9 now. Loss, 40-14
• ETSU: The FCS Bucs are co-Southern Champs, currently ranked #22 in the FCS, and headed to the playoffs. Win, 59-3
• UTEP: Terrible team with a bad season. Win, 24-0
• Florida: Not ranked at the time, #13 now. Loss, 47-21
• Georgia: #2 at the time, #5 now. Loss, 38-12
• Auburn: #21 at the time, currently not ranked. Win, 30-24
• Alabama: #1 at the time, #1 now. Loss, 58-21
• South Carolina: Not ranked at the time, not ranked now. Loss, 27-24
• Charlotte: Not ranked then or now. Win, 14-3
• Kentucky: #11 at the time, #17 now. Win, 24-7
• Missouri: Not ranked then or now. Loss, 50-17

Best wins: Kentucky and Auburn.

Expected outcomes: Losses to ranked Alabama, Georgia, West Virginia. Wins against ETSU, UTEP, Charlotte.

Lost opportunities: Florida (better team, but undone by turnovers instead of just getting beat), South Carolina, Missouri.

My new expected win total:

• This week: 5.5
• Last week: 6.1
• After Week 10: 5.3
• After Week 9: 5.55
• After Week 8: 6.0
• After Week 7: 6.3
• After Week 6: 5.0
• After Week 5: 4.9
• After Week 4: 4.55
• After Week 3: 5.5

I didn’t think that Missouri would dominate Tennessee like it did last Saturday, but neither was I surprised, because the SPM was within three points of nailing the scores for both teams. Turns out, the comps were right. The thing is, it could just as easily turned out the other way, which is why I put the chances of beating Missouri at 50%. Missouri was just too balanced and too good along the lines, and those advantages translated into a lot of points.

None of that changes my opinion about the Vanderbilt game, though, which I am still putting at 50%. Go Vols. Go bowling.

Use the form below to calculate your expected win total and post it in the comments below the post.

Explanations are below, but here’s the updated chart for this week:

Tennessee Volunteers currently

Current record: 5-6 (2-5), 6th in the SEC East

• Lost to #17 WVU*, 40-14
• Beat ETSU, 59-3
• Beat UTEP, 24-0
• Lost to Florida, 47-21
• Lost to #2 Georgia, 38-12
• Beat #21 Auburn, 30-24
• Lost to #1 Alabama, 58-21
• Lost to South Carolina, 27-24
• Beat Charlotte, 14-3
• Beat No. 11 Kentucky, 24-7
• Lost to Missouri, 50-17
• Vanderbilt

The Vols’ past opponents

West Virginia Mountaineers

Current record: 8-2 (6-2), 2nd in Big 12, #9

• Beat Tennessee*, 40-14
• Beat YSU, 52-17
• NC State, Canceled
• Beat Kansas St, 35-6
• Beat #25 Texas Tech, 42-34
• Beat Kansas, 38-22
• Lost to Iowa State, 30-14
• Bye
• Beat Baylor, 58-14
• Beat #17 Texas, 42-41
• Beat TCU, 47-10
• Lost to Oklahoma State, 45-41
• Oklahoma

East Tennessee State Buccaneers

Current record: 8-3 (6-2), 1st in Southern

• Beat Mars Hill, 28-7
• Lost to Tennessee, 59-3
• Beat VMI, 27-24
• Beat Furman, 29-27
• Beat Chattanooga, 17-14
• Beat Gardner-Webb, 45-0
• Beat The Citadel, 26-23
• Lost to Wofford, 31-17
• Beat Western Carolina, 45-43
• Beat Mercer, 21-18
• Bye
• Lost to Samford, 38-27

UTEP Miners

Current record: 1-10 (1-6), 6th in C-USA – West

• Lost to N Arizona, 30-10
• Lost to UNLV, 52-24
• Lost to Tennessee, 24-0
• Lost to New Mexico St, 27-20
• Lost to UTSA, 30-21
• Lost North Texas, 27-24
• Bye
• Lost to LA Tech, 31-24
• Lost UAB, 19-0
• Beat Rice, 34-26
• Lost to MTSU, 48-32
• Lost to Western Kentucky, 40-16
• Southern Miss

Florida Gators

Current record: 8-3 (5-3), 2nd in SEC – East, #13

• Beat Charleston So, 53-6
• Lost to Kentucky, 27-16
• Beat Colorado St, 48-10
• Beat Tennessee, 47-21
• Beat #14 Miss St, 13-6
• Beat #5 LSU, 27-19
• Beat Vanderbilt, 37-27
• Bye
• Lost to #7 Georgia, 36-17
• Lost to Missouri, 38-17
• Beat South Carolina, 35-31
• Beat Idaho, 63-10
• Florida State

Georgia Bulldogs

Current record: 10-1 (7-1), 1st in SEC – East, #5

• Beat Austin Peay, 45-0
• Beat #24 S Carolina, 41-17
• Beat MTSU, 49-7
• Beat Missouri, 43-29
• Beat Tennessee, 38-12
• Beat Vanderbilt, 41-13
• Lost to #13 LSU, 36-16
• Bye
• Beat Florida, 36-17
• Beat #9 Kentucky, 34-17
• Beat Auburn, 27-10
• Beat UMass, 66-27
• Georgia Tech

Auburn Tigers

Current record: 7-4 (3-4), 4th in SEC – West

• Beat #6 Washington*, 21-16
• Beat Alabama St, 63-9
• Lost to #12 LSU, 22-21
• Beat Arkansas, 34-3
• Beat Southern Miss, 24-13
• Lost to Miss St, 23-9
• Lost to Tennessee, 30-24
• Beat Ole Miss, 31-16
• Bye
• Beat #20 Texas A&M, 28-24
• Lost to Georgia, 27-10
• Beat Liberty, 53-0
• Alabama

Alabama Crimson Tide

Current record: 11-0 (7-0), 1st in SEC – West, #1

• Beat Louisville*, 51-14
• Beat Arkansas St, 57-7
• Beat Ole Miss, 62-7
• Beat #22 Texas A&M, 45-23
• Beat Louisiana, 56-14
• Beat Arkansas, 65-31
• Beat Missouri, 39-10
• Beat Tennessee, 58-21
• Bye
• Beat #3 LSU, 29-0
• Beat # 16 Mississippi State, 24-0
• Beat The Citadel, 50-17
• Auburn

South Carolina Gamecocks

Current record: 6-4 (4-4), 4th in SEC – East

• Beat C. Carolina, 49-15
• Lost to #3 Georgia, 41-17
• Marshall, Canceled
• Beat Vanderbilt, 37-14
• Lost to Kentucky, 24-10
• Beat Missouri, 37-35
• Lost Texas A&M, 26-23
• Bye
• Beat Tennessee, 27-24
• Beat Ole Miss, 48-44
• Lost to Florida, 35-31
• Beat Chattanooga, 49-9
• Clemson

Charlotte 49ers

Current record: 4-7 (3-4), 4th in C-USA – East

• Beat Fordham, 34-10
• Lost to App St, 45-9
• Beat Old Dominion, 28-25
• Lost to UMass, 49-31
• Lost to UAB, 28-7
• Beat Western Kentucky, 40-14
• Lost to MTSU, 21-13
• Beat Southern Miss, 20-17
• Lost to Tennessee, 14-3
• Lost to Marshall, 30-13
• Lost to FIU, 42-35
• FAU

Kentucky Wildcats

Current record: 8-3 (5-3), 2nd in SEC – East, #17

• Beat Cent Michigan, 35-20
• Beat #25 Florida, 27-16
• Beat Murray State, 48-10
• Beat #14 Miss St, 28-7
• Beat S Carolina, 24-10
• Lost to Texas A&M, 20-14
• Bye
• Beat Vanderbilt, 14-7
• Beat Missouri, 15-14
• Lost to Georgia, 34-17
• Lost to Tennessee, 24-7
• Beat MTSU, 34-23
• Louisville

Missouri Tigers

Current record: 7-4 (3-4), 5th in SEC – East

• Beat UT Martin, 51-14
• Beat Wyoming, 40-13
• Beat Purdue, 40-37
• Lost to #2 Georgia, 43-29
• Lost to South Carolina, 37-35
• Lost to Alabama, 39-10
• Beat Memphis, 65-33
• Lost to Kentucky, 15-14
• Beat #11 Florida, 38-17
• Beat Vanderbilt, 33-28
• Beat Tennessee, 50-17
• Arkansas

The Vols’ future opponents

Vanderbilt Commodores

Current record: 5-6 (2-5), 6th in SEC – East

• Beat MTSU, 35-7
• Beat Nevada, 41-10
• Lost to #8 Notre Dame, 22-17
• Lost to S Carolina, 37-14
• Beat Tennessee St, 31-27
• Lost to Georgia, 41-13
• Lost to Florida, 37-27
• Lost to Kentucky, 14-7
• Beat Arkansas, 45-31
• Bye
• Lost to Missouri, 33-28
• Beat Ole Miss, 36-29
• Tennessee

With so much to play for on Saturday, Tennessee’s game against Missouri was a colossal thud.

It should have been the most embarrassed the Volunteers felt all year, and, if they didn’t, something is severely wrong with the program. Mizzou waltzed into Neyland Stadium with former UT head coach Derek Dooley as its offensive coordinator and walked out with a 50-17 annihilation of the Vols.

A team that needed a single win for bowl eligibility will have to wait another week. If they play anything against Vanderbilt like they did against Missouri, they’ll have to wait another year (or more). Yes, with tons of star recruits in town and with so much to play for, the Vols were flatter and forgettable as they’ve been since the Florida loss.

The two setbacks were very similar, too. If anything, the one Saturday was worse. But the true nature of the “Sunday Best” column is to find something positive to talk about. Honestly, we’ll get to a couple of those real good things later, but the best thing I can say about this one is that it’s over.

This was the first time in four trips that my 8-year-old boy has gone to Neyland and come away with a loss, and as he declared afterward, “Well, at least I had fun.”

That makes one of us, kid. But I guess that qualifies for something worth chalking up as a positive for the day; Lord knows I need something good to make me feel better…

But first, the failures…

The offensive line is awful. We all know that, and though we maybe had better vibes after last weekend’s win over Kentucky, it was more of the same against Mizzou. Quarterback Jarrett Guarantano was concussed early in the first quarter, yielding to Keller Chryst for the rest of the day. Few running lanes opened up the rest of the day making UT one-dimensional (and even that dimension wasn’t very good), and the Vols failed to sustain drives for the remainder of the game.

On the other side of the ball, this was — far and away, considering the level of competition — the worst UT’s defense has played all season, too, which disappointed me more than anything. I knew the offensive line sucked. I expected coach Jeremy Pruitt to have his boys on the defensive side of the ball ready to play, and that never was the case.

Needing to pressure Drew Lock to have a chance to win, Tennessee failed to do it hardly ever, and the senior Tigers quarterback dissected the Vols like a frog in 8th-grade science class. He was brilliant, and I’m glad he’s gone. You should be, too, because the Vols had no answer for him. Want to know what should make you feel worse? It could have been even more gruesome; the Tigers dropped two guaranteed touchdown passes where they torched UT defensive backs.

Alontae Taylor looked human all day with his worst performance of his freshman year, and the safeties were atrocious, too. Lock made them look like Will Grier did at the beginning of the season.

Well, how about the rush defense? Yeah, it was nonexistent, as well. Missouri completed 50 percent of its third-down conversions, and that had something to do with Lock’s brilliance, sure, but it also didn’t hurt that the Tigers had 227 rushing yards and put itself in manageable second- and third-down situations throughout the game. The Vols didn’t have any answers.

Need a reminder just how small the margin of error is for this UT team? Look no further than two plays that were gargantuan in the final tally. At the end of the first half, Chryst led UT down the field, and the Vols looked like they’d at the very least get a field goal to trail 19-13 at halftime. They may have even made it 19-17 if they could punch it in the end zone. Instead, Chryst and his receiver failed to be on the same page on a pivotal play, and the senior threw a huge interception that was returned deep into UT territory. Mizzou punched it in for a quick score to end the half, and instead of a one-score game, it was a 26-10 halftime advantage.

Tennessee was driving again near midfield in the third quarter when Carlin Fils-aime fumbled, and it was picked up and returned for a Mizzou touchdown that put the game completely out of reach.

Ugliness ensued.

So, all that happened. It was brutal. It was disappointing. And it not only was awful for the present, but it sucked for the future, too. Tennessee had a slew of high-profile recruits in town, the Vols had built some momentum with 5-star linebacker Owen Pappoe and 5-star offensive tackle Darnell Wright [neither of which was present Saturday, thank God] and others, and they were all feeling the vibes and watching the improvement of the Vols.

Then Saturday happened.

I’m not saying one game should — or will — influence any of those guys’ decisions. The Vols will still have a good recruiting class and may even lead for both those kids who’ll be massive playmakers and first-year starters. But Saturday didn’t help the selling process. You put your resume on paper, and UT didn’t have enough to get hired pumping gas against the Tigers.

If you want some positive things from Saturday, you’ve got to look hard. Again, my kid had a good time, so there’s that, right? Right?

Also, it showed me two things that are important for team (and fan) continuity next week. No. 1, Guarantano needs to be man against the Commodores and (hopefully) in a bowl game, whether the Vols win or lose in Nashville. He is the best quarterback on the roster, and Chryst struggled at times on Saturday. He just doesn’t give you what JG does, plain and simple. But…

The positive thing about Chryst is the kid CAN be a salvageable option if JG can’t go. The deep-ball game was strong again, and he was able to get passes up to Marquez Callaway and Jauan Jennings and let those superior talents do the rest. That’s a major positive. Yes, Chryst threw a pair of interceptions and was just 7-of-19 passing, but it wasn’t all his fault. When you’re one-dimensional — and the Vols definitely were on Saturday — defenses don’t have to work as hard.

We, of all teams, should know that. Remember the Kentucky game just last week?

Tennessee can beat Vanderbilt with Chryst at the helm. There’s a better chance for that to happen if Guarantano is healthy. Hopefully, he will be.

But the best thing about Saturday is we don’t have to watch Lock torch us anymore. Man, that got old. Just forget about this one and move on. It’s a one-game season, and if the Vols can’t beat Vanderbilt, they don’t deserve to go to a bowl game, anyway.

Better days are ahead, but this team is imperfect, inconsistent and continues to be about as hot and cold as any in the country. Let’s just hope they’re the former next weekend, or we’ll be watching bowl season from our couches.

Two years ago Tennessee beat Missouri 63-37, part of a sterling November performance for Josh Dobbs and the Vol offense. Tennessee led the nation in yards per play that month (stats via SportSource Analytics), averaging 8.96 per snap against Tennessee Tech, Kentucky, Missouri, and Vanderbilt. The next-closest team in November was Colorado State at 8.51. It was incredibly impressive.

But against Missouri, some of the post-game press went to what the Tigers did against the Vol defense: 740 yards! 420 on the ground! Oh the humanity!

It was a huge day for the Tigers…mostly because they ran 110 plays.

Mizzou’s 6.73 yards per play that day certainly didn’t represent a great effort by Bob Shoop’s unit. But Texas A&M, Alabama, Kentucky, and Vanderbilt were all more successful per-play against the Vol defense. They just didn’t snap it 110 times while giving up 63 points in just 67 plays on the other end.

Much has changed for Tennessee since then, but not a whole lot for Missouri. Derek Dooley now calls the plays, but the Tigers still love to get up and go. And this is the biggest difference between these two teams: Missouri has run 776 plays, eighth nationally among teams playing 10 games or fewer so far, and the fastest pace in the SEC. Tennessee has run 620 plays, fourth-slowest nationally among teams playing 10 games or more, and dead last in the SEC. Missouri essentially averages two whole drives more than Tennessee per game.

Missouri isn’t so much explosive as they are relentless. In their advanced statistical profile from Bill Connelly, the Tiger offense ranks only 98th in explosiveness but 16th in efficiency. For a team running more plays than almost anyone else, the Tigers are only fifth in the SEC in gains of 10+ yards on the year. Here they have a clear advantage on the Vols, who rank 12th in the league. But when you start increasing the denomination, the gap narrows quickly.

	MIZ	UT
10+	148	122
20+	54	45
30+	28	24
40+	18	12
50+	7	7

With the Tigers averaging 15+ snaps a game more than Tennessee, you would expect these differences to be greater. But Missouri hasn’t been beating people with sheer explosiveness. It’s instead an efficient, relentless offense that’s been good at creating more chances and making the most of them.

Tennessee, on the other hand, is more explosive than we give it credit for because it runs so few plays. We looked at this in-depth after the Charlotte win – Tennessee’s pace of 62 plays per game is still the second-slowest of the post-Fulmer era, bested only by last year at 61 because the offense struggled so much it couldn’t stay on the field. This team is much more deliberate about its pace, averaging 31:02 in time of possession, nearly three minutes more than last season. No doubt the Vols will look to do that again on Saturday, seeking to limit Missouri’s chances. This is exactly what Kentucky did, holding the Tigers to 62 plays. Only two of Kentucky’s five punts in that game came via three-and-outs. The Cats weren’t overly efficient – 3-of-14 on third down, 0-for-3 on fourth down – but they did a good enough job keeping the chains moving to limit Missouri’s chances.

For Tennessee’s offense, the formula for success here is a familiar one: make it count on third down, and sprinkle in enough big plays. I’m not as worried about Missouri decimating Tennessee’s defense over the top as I am about the Tigers simply eating it up one play at a time. When the Vols did well against Kentucky’s offense last week, they did well on first down and put the Cats in situations they didn’t want to be in. There are fewer situations the Tigers don’t want to be in. But I think this will be less about explosive plays allowed, and more about limiting Missouri’s overall chances by way of Tennessee’s own efficiency.