Happy Thanksgiving, everyone.
In this space last weekend, we published our weekly statsy preview with the subtitle The comps have to be wrong about this game, right? The GRT SPM spit out a (rounded) score of Missouri 40, Tennessee 17, a prediction so offensive to my eyes and guts that I just ignored it and made my official prediction 31-27 notwithstanding any of the comps.
Immediately after the game that ended in a 50-17 Tigers win, the SPM texted me a sticking-out-your-tongue emoji, which was a total shock to me because I had no idea it even had a tongue. Or a face, for that matter. I reminded it that it was wrong about the Kentucky game, and the conversation ended there.
Anyway . . . This week, the SPM mostly agrees with Vegas, my eyes, and my gut, and is expecting a close one between the Vols and Commodores Saturday. So, we can all agree this week that we hope we’re all wrong and end up with a repeat of the game against the Wildcats.
Predictions
SPM: Vanderbilt 20, Tennessee 17.8
Eye- and gut-adjusted: Vanderbilt 21, Tennessee 20
Tennessee rushing yards: 160
Tennessee passing yards: 220
Vanderbilt rushing yards: 140
Vanderbilt passing yards: 180
Tennessee points: 20
Vanderbilt points: 21
Spread: Vanderbilt, -1
Tennessee rushing
Tennessee is averaging 131.5 rushing yards per game. Vanderbilt is giving up 194.9 per game on the ground, which makes them the worst rushing defense the Vols have seen all season. The closest comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent that is better at defending the run than Vanderbilt is South Carolina, which is allowing 192.3. But Tennessee only got 144 on the ground against the Gamecocks.
Based on all of that, my guess for rushing yards for Tennessee against Vanderbilt is 160.
Tennessee passing
Tennessee is averaging 201.6 passing yards per game, and Vanderbilt is allowing 241.1. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is West Virginia, which is giving up 244.1 yards per game through the air. A brand spanking new Tennessee team still finding itself put up only 172 against them in the first game of the season for both teams.
On the other hand, the closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Charlotte, which is allowing 225.0 passing yards per game, and Tennessee got only 172 against them.
My eye and gut tell me that Tennessee can do better through the air than it did against either West Virginia early or Charlotte late, and that’s supported by the numbers when you look at them from Vandy’s perspective. Arkansas is averaging 197.5 passing yards per game, and they got 240 against the ‘Dores. Florida, which averages 213.8, got 284. So, the Vols should do better than their average through the air against Vanderbilt Saturday.
Based on that, I’m saying that Tennessee will get somewhere around 220 passing yards this weekend.
Vanderbilt rushing
The Tennessee defense is allowing 159.5 rushing yards per game, while the Vanderbilt run game is averaging 162.8 yards per game. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is West Virginia, which is getting 162.0 yards per game on the ground, and they got 118 against Tennessee. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Auburn, which is averaging 167.2 rushing yards per game and got 126 against Tennessee.
So, it would appear that Tennessee’s rush defense, with all of its faults, has generally held similar teams to below their average on the ground.
The data from Vandy’s perspective is a mixed bag. On one hand, we’re most like Arkansas (giving up an average of 166.6 rushing yards per game) to them, and they put up 250 against the Hogs. On the other hand, the next closest comp for them is Kentucky (giving up 137.5), and they only got 68 against the Cats. We’re right in the middle.
Based on all of that, I’m guessing Vanderbilt will get about 140 rushing yards against Tennessee’s defense.
Vanderbilt passing
The Tennessee pass defense is allowing 209.8 passing yards per game. Vanderbilt is getting 228.6. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Georgia, which is getting 226.4 yards per game through the air, and they got 190 against Tennessee. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is South Carolina, which is averaging 262.0 passing yards per game and got 152 against Tennessee.
The Vols getting torched last week by Missouri and Drew Lock notwithstanding, I think their secondary is capable, so I’m going with Vanderbilt putting up about 180 passing yards against Tennessee.
Tennessee scoring
Tennessee is averaging 23.6 points per game, and Vanderbilt is allowing 26.2. This makes them nearly identical to Missouri, which is allowing 26.6 points per game. The Vols managed only 17 against the Tigers.
The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is West Virginia. They’re allowing 23.3 points per game, and Tennessee got only 14 against them.
As much as I hate to say it, it appears that the Tennessee offense has a ceiling on the number of points it can score. This feels strange, because at times the offense looks quite capable. But 11 games of data says Tennessee’s not likely to score more than its average of 24 points unless it’s playing ETSU or having an outlier game against Auburn.
And yet, it’s Vanderbilt, it’s the last game of the regular season, and there’s a bowl game on the line, so maybe that’s worth a few points.
My prediction is that Tennessee will put up around 20 against Vanderbilt.
Vanderbilt scoring
Tennessee is allowing 27.0 points per game. Vanderbilt is averaging 26.7.
The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Kentucky, which is averaging 23.9 points, and they got 7 against Tennessee. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Auburn, which is averaging 28.9 points and got 24 against Tennessee.
So, the Vols have done well to really well against opponents with the most similar scoring averages, which is obviously good news.
I’m going with Vanderbilt putting up about 21 points against Tennessee.
Comparison of predictions to other models and Vegas
The Vegas spread favors Vanderbilt by 3-3.5, with an over/under of 50.5-51, which converts to something like 27-24, Vandy.
Bill Connelly’s S&P+ says Tennessee has a 44% chance of winning and puts the score at Vanderbilt 31.6, Tennessee 29, a spread of -2.6.
ESPN’s FPI gives the Vols a 38.7% chance of winning.
Left alone, the SPM says Vanderbilt 20, Tennessee 17.8, a spread of -2.2.
After eye- and gut-adjustments, I’m going with Vanderbilt 21, Tennessee 20, a spread of -1. That’s an even closer prediction than the Tennessee-Kentucky game, so let’s hope for a similar result.
Happy Thanksgiving! Sounds like this is going to be a “mental” game of who wants it more and can execute. Mistakes will probably be the deciding factor. Hope the Vols leave the penalties, fumbles and interceptions at home. Go Vols!!