Jauan Jennings
Football

Final projected win total for the Vols for 2018: One final tossup game

Written by Joel Hollingsworth on

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In this space each week of the regular season, we update our expected win totals for the season using our projected win total machine. With only one game left, the only remaining question is what odds you’re giving Tennessee to beat Vanderbilt this week in Nashville. I’ve left the calculator in the post in case you want to use it, but mostly I wanted to use the information we’ve been compiling here each week to briefly summarize the season and what the Vols have and have not yet been able to accomplish.

  • West Virginia: #17 at the time, #9 now. Loss, 40-14
  • ETSU: The FCS Bucs are co-Southern Champs, currently ranked #22 in the FCS, and headed to the playoffs. Win, 59-3
  • UTEP: Terrible team with a bad season. Win, 24-0
  • Florida: Not ranked at the time, #13 now. Loss, 47-21
  • Georgia: #2 at the time, #5 now. Loss, 38-12
  • Auburn: #21 at the time, currently not ranked. Win, 30-24
  • Alabama: #1 at the time, #1 now. Loss, 58-21
  • South Carolina: Not ranked at the time, not ranked now. Loss, 27-24
  • Charlotte: Not ranked then or now. Win, 14-3
  • Kentucky: #11 at the time, #17 now. Win, 24-7
  • Missouri: Not ranked then or now. Loss, 50-17

Best wins: Kentucky and Auburn.

Expected outcomes: Losses to ranked Alabama, Georgia, West Virginia. Wins against ETSU, UTEP, Charlotte.

Lost opportunities: Florida (better team, but undone by turnovers instead of just getting beat), South Carolina, Missouri.

My new expected win total:

  • This week: 5.5
  • Last week: 6.1
  • After Week 10: 5.3
  • After Week 9: 5.55
  • After Week 8: 6.0
  • After Week 7: 6.3
  • After Week 6: 5.0
  • After Week 5: 4.9
  • After Week 4: 4.55
  • After Week 3: 5.5

I didn’t think that Missouri would dominate Tennessee like it did last Saturday, but neither was I surprised, because the SPM was within three points of nailing the scores for both teams. Turns out, the comps were right. The thing is, it could just as easily turned out the other way, which is why I put the chances of beating Missouri at 50%. Missouri was just too balanced and too good along the lines, and those advantages translated into a lot of points.

None of that changes my opinion about the Vanderbilt game, though, which I am still putting at 50%. Go Vols. Go bowling.

Use the form below to calculate your expected win total and post it in the comments below the post.

Explanations are below, but here’s the updated chart for this week:

Tennessee Volunteers currently

Current record: 5-6 (2-5), 6th in the SEC East

The Vols’ past opponents

West Virginia Mountaineers

Current record: 8-2 (6-2), 2nd in Big 12, #9

East Tennessee State Buccaneers

Current record: 8-3 (6-2), 1st in Southern

UTEP Miners

Current record: 1-10 (1-6), 6th in C-USA – West

Florida Gators

Current record: 8-3 (5-3), 2nd in SEC – East, #13

Georgia Bulldogs

Current record: 10-1 (7-1), 1st in SEC – East, #5

Auburn Tigers

Current record: 7-4 (3-4), 4th in SEC – West

Alabama Crimson Tide

Current record: 11-0 (7-0), 1st in SEC – West, #1

South Carolina Gamecocks

Current record: 6-4 (4-4), 4th in SEC – East

  • Beat C. Carolina, 49-15
  • Lost to #3 Georgia, 41-17
  • Marshall, Canceled
  • Beat Vanderbilt, 37-14
  • Lost to Kentucky, 24-10
  • Beat Missouri, 37-35
  • Lost Texas A&M, 26-23
  • Bye
  • Beat Tennessee, 27-24
  • Beat Ole Miss, 48-44
  • Lost to Florida, 35-31
  • Beat Chattanooga, 49-9
  • Clemson

Charlotte 49ers

Current record: 4-7 (3-4), 4th in C-USA – East

Kentucky Wildcats

Current record: 8-3 (5-3), 2nd in SEC – East, #17

Missouri Tigers

Current record: 7-4 (3-4), 5th in SEC – East

The Vols’ future opponents

Vanderbilt Commodores

Current record: 5-6 (2-5), 6th in SEC – East

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HT
HT
5 years ago

Well, here we are… if we lose we will be right where I thought we would be before the season started. If we win, a bowl season will be a pleasant year-one surprise. Pre-season: 5.12 Post-WVU: 4.98 Post-ETSU: 4.84 Post-UTEP: 4.65 Post-Florida: 4.01 Post-Georgia: 4.20 Post-bye: 4.63 Post-Auburn: 5.58 Post-Alabama: 5.48 Post-South Carolina: 5.08 Post-Charlotte: 5.00 Post-Kentucky: 6.00 Now: 5.50 I put Vandy right at 50/50. I think on any given Saturday we have a better team, but our inconsistency and the game being on the road makes it a total toss-up for me. How I have picked each UT… Read more »

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Gavin Driskill
Gavin Driskill
5 years ago

I’ve got UT with a 40% chance to win on Saturday, basically in line with ESPN’s FPI (haven’t seen a line set yet). Recency bias is very real; Vandy is coming off of a win (and almost beat Mizzou in Columbia the week before) while the Vols just get blasted. On the other hand, Vandy lost to Kentucky a few weeks ago while the Vols handled them. Vandy has been more consistent, especially on offense, so I expect them to score 20+ on Saturday. Is Guarantano healthy? What kind of defensive effort do the Vols get? Are they motivated to… Read more »

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Gavin Driskill
Gavin Driskill
5 years ago
Reply to  Gavin Driskill

Vandy favored by 3.5, btw.

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Pete
Pete
5 years ago

Coin Flip for a bowl game. Hey, Vandy, “Heads I Win, Tails You Lose”. Prolific offense doesn’t usuall come to mind but Vandy has scored 45-28-36 in its last 3. Scares me. But iff we play like we did vs. Kentucky, we win. If we play like we did against Missouri or Charlotte, we lose. Bowling anyone?

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Harley
Harley
5 years ago

The “Bottom Bowl”… winner takes all. Please Vols don’t let “Candy” win this one… show a little pride and drive to end the regular season on a high note. Go Vols!!

PS: I forecast that the guys are mentally drained and momentum is in Vandy’s favor with an overtime win last week and playing at home… I hate to say it, but I am prepared for a probable loss.

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