Category Archives: Football

This weekend Tennessee and Head Coach Jeremy Pruitt will finish its 2019 spring practice with a final scrimmage in what is mostly a showcase for the University and the football (and sometimes basketball) program.  As usual there will be plenty of recruits on hand, and for the second year in a row there will actually be a handful of official visitors as some recruits take advantage of that relatively new rule.

When it comes to competing for visitors this weekend, Tennessee is going head to head against the likes of SEC schools Alabama, Florida, Texas A&M, Mississippi State and Missouri; ACC schools North Carolina, NC State and Miami; Big 10 powers Ohio State and Michigan; and Big 12 powers Texas and Oklahoma.  Obviously prospects that Tennessee is recruiting and would love to have on campus this weekend will have to make choices, and while where a prospect visits this weekend doesn’t necessarily mean a thing for where he ends up signing, the Vol staff will absolutely be trying to get some head to head “wins” against many of its primary recruiting competitors. 

As the weekend draws near, here’s what targets we know will be elsewhere:

OLB Reggie Grimes – Alabama

DB Javier Morton – Alabama

OL Paris Johnson – Ohio State (where he is committed)

DB Brian Branch – Oklahoma (Official Visit)

S Major Burns – Oklahoma (Official Visit)

TE Darnell Washington – Florida

OLB Brandon Williams – Florida

DE Desmond Evans – North Carolina

ATH Trenton Simpson – North Carolina

WR Mushin Muhammad – Texas A&M (Official Visit)

DE Will Anderson – Auburn

LB Rodney Groce – Auburn

LB Quandarrius Robinson – Auburn

And here’s who is currently set to visit Knoxville this weekend:

WR Velus Jones (Grad Transfer – USC) – Jones, who has two remaining seasons of eligibility, is an Alabama native recruited to the West Coast by new Tennessee WR Coach Tee Martin.  He’s got some familiarity with Tennessee on his own, having taken an OV to Knoxville in the 2016 cycle.  He hasn’t been incredibly productive so far in his career but is coming off the best season of his career in terms of catches and yards. Additionally, Jones has been the primary KR for USC, averaging just under 24 yards per return.

While it’s unclear if Jones is a grad transfer, assuming he would be immediately eligible and then have two seasons to play makes him an attractive addition.  Both because of the relative lack of quality/experienced depth at the position for 2019 but also because he’d effectively function as a JUCO prospect with high level major conference experience.  Another angle here is that given Tennessee’s absolute lack of projected WR depth in 2020 – currently being used as a major selling point for elite 2020 WR prospects – Jones would also allow Tennessee coaches to keep Georgia transfer Deangleo Gibbs at the Nickel/Star position instead of at WR (again, assuming Gibbs immediately eligible as well).  While Tennessee is very settled at both CB spots and one S position, they don’t have an answer yet at Star.  But in his limited practices on Defense so far Gibbs has shown out at the position – not surprising given his experience there at UGA and also simply the fact that he’s a high level prospect. 

WR EJ Williams (OV) – Williams is an elite WR who has already visited Tennessee once this spring.  As an early enrollee Williams appears to be looking to make a decision on the early side, and the Vols will get the first shot to make a big impression.  The AL native is also very high on Clemson and Alabama, with Auburn in the mix as well, so Tennessee is swimming in deep waters here.  Williams is clearly intrigued by fellow Yellowhammer State native Coach Martin and the Vols will hope to put themselves way ahead of the pack with this official visit

WR Kris Abrams-Draine – The former LSU commit and yet another WR from Alabama that Tennessee is chasing, Abrams-Draine (KAD) will be making his second trip to Knoxville this spring and his first visit anywhere since decommitting from the Tigers.  He’s a smaller WR at 6’0 and around 170 pounds, but with offers from Oregon, Florida, and of course LSU among others, the 4-star prospect has the perfect size/quickness combination for the slot.  After being committed to LSU for over a year it would seem unlikely that KAD is ready to commit somewhere else so quickly, but his return visit certainly bodes well for the Vols to remain a major player 

TE Arik Gilbert – Absolutely elite TE prospect who many are calling a once-every-10 year type of player.  Gilbert is teammates with Tennessee QB commitment Harrison Bailey – who will also be on campus.  UGA and Clemson are believed to be the frontrunners, with the Dawgs considered the leader and Alabama absolutely in the mix as well.  However, Gilbert has been on Tennessee’s campus multiple times and has a great relationship with Bailey which could be a trump card for the Vols.  Tennessee’s best hope is for Gilbert to take his recruitment the distance and give them multiple chances to get him back to Knoxville.  This will be yet another step.

RB (LB?) Tee Hodge – The Maryville product is fresh off a visit last weekend to Florida State’s spring game, and while the Seminoles have yet to offer they are still high on his list.  This will be at least the fifth time Hodge has visited campus since Pruitt took over and his second this year, so he’s very familiar with the staff and the campus.  Hodge was already big for a RB at 6’2, which Tennessee likes, but he’s recently put on a lot of (good) weight and is now at least 230 pounds.  He’s recently picked up offers from Penn State and Ole Miss to go with his Vol offer, and he seems to be blowing up a bit on the recruiting trail.  Given his size one wonders whether, like fellow Vol target Trenton Simpson, he might end up being a better LB prospect when all is said and done.  But either way it’s good for Tennessee to get him back on campus for the O&W Game and keep pushing forward in his recruitment

RB Deondre Jackson – The 3-star former Auburn commit will be making his third visit to Knoxville and second in less than four weeks.  He’s got offers from Alabama, Texas A&M and Florida to go with those from Auburn and Tennessee and brings a solid combination of power and speed with his 6’0 200+ pound frame.  With Ebony Jackson in the fold the Vols can afford to be picky with its 2^nd RB spot, and Jackson is on a relatively short list of realistic targets that includes Daijun Edwards, Tank Bigsby (below), maybe Zachary Evans from Texas, and two others in Hodge and Simpson who could be better LB prospects than RBs

RB Tank Bigsby – The 4-star Bigsby, like Jackson, is a top-shelf RB prospect from Georgia.  LSU, Auburn, and South Carolina are considered the leaders right now, so Tennessee has ground to make up.  This will be Bigsby’s first visit to Knoxville so the Vols will hope to make themselves real players in this recruitment

OL Tate Ratledge – Arguably the top Offensive Tackle in the South and without a doubt one of the top in the country, Ratledge is simply an elite player at one of the most important positions in football.  Despite having grown up a Tennessee fan in a family of hardcore Tennessee fans, the Vols were third on his list as recently as 12 months ago.  However, the departure of Alabama’s Offensive Line Coach Brent Key appears to have knocked the Tide virtually off of his list, and at the same time Coach Pruitt, OL Coach Will Friend, and OC Jim Chaney (who Ratledge was close with when he was at UGA) have led a surge for the Vols.  This is a two-team race between the Vols and the (borderline) instate Dawgs, with uber recruiter Sam Pittman singlehandedly keeping UGA in it.  Ratledge has become close with Cooper Mays and Harrison Bailey, and that peer recruiting (by a potential linemate and QB, no less) along with the family ties could be hard for even Pittman to overcome.  However, UGA surely won’t go away in this one, and in fact Tate is scheduled to be at Georgia’s spring game the following weekend, and he’s no stranger to that campus either.  But make no mistake that this weekend will be a big one in this recruitment as the Vols look to continue that surge and solidify its spot at the top

OL Cooper Mays (OV) – Vol (and now UGA) legacy who has been on campus dozens of times.  Tennessee appears to be in great shape for Mays, who just last weekend one the OL MVP at the Charlotte Rivals Camp.  Tennessee would love to add Mays ASAP, as he’d not only be a strong foundational piece for the 2020 OL class but he’s also very close friends with top Vol targets Ratledge and DL Tyler Baron.  Scheduing Mays for an OV this coming weekend certainly gives off a ‘commitment watch” vibe, so this will be one to watch closely

OL Justin Rogers (OV) – Rogers is, along with Ratledge and Mays, one of Tennessee’s top 5 OL targets in the class.  The Detroit-area native was on campus last spring and then again for the Florida game this past season, making this his third visit to campus in a year.  The 5-star Guard clearly is high on Tennessee, though he does also really like OSU, Michigan, and UGA.  It’s an interesting play bringing Rogers in for an OV this early, as it’s his first of five.  But Tennessee did successfully pull this trick with Wanya Morris last year, so it’s hard to doubt Pruitt’s strategy here.  Like EJ Williams though, the key will be making such an impression that Tennessee pulls way out in front in this recruitment, enough to hold up for eight months until Early Signing Day

DB Kitan Crawford (OV) – The Texas native named a Top 3 of Tennessee, Texas and Baylor and is looking to make a decision fairly shortly.  He’s a Baylor legacy and a take for Texas, so on its face this seems like a tough pull for the Vols.  Hosting a kid from Texas on an official visit in April is a risky play, which suggests that this was the option presented to Tennessee and the staff decided to take it.  Crawford is a great looking prospect and since this will be his first visit to Knoxville so it will be interesting to see his reaction coming out of the weekend

OLB BJ Ojulari – A teammate of both Bailey and Gilbert, Ojulari will once again visit Knoxville, making it nearly a half dozen times in the last year.  Despite being the brother of current UGA player Azeez Ojulari, BJ is clearly very much open to the Vols.  The 4-star prospect also has offers from the likes of Alabama and Oklahoma and would be a perfect fit as a pass-rushing OLB in Pruitt’s defense.  The Vols will ultimately have to overcome both instate and family pressure, but they do have Bailey and familiarity on their side.  This weekend will be yet another step towards landing the kind of impactful edge rusher that is sorely needed for Tennessee’s defense

DL Deontae Craig (OV)– The Fort Wayne, IN native who attends the prestigious Culver Academies in Culver, IN received a Tennessee offer last summer and will be taking his first OV to Knoxville this weekend.  Despite an impressive offer list that includes Notre Dame (the current perceived leader), OSU, Michigan, and others, he’s a bit of an underrated prospect.  He’s an intriguing prospect due to his 6’5, 230 pound frame that has tons of room to add weight.  He’s also a high academic kid so his will likely be a different type of visit than some others.  It will be interesting to hear what Craig has to say after his first visit to Tennessee for what should be a bigtime atmosphere

DB Keshawn Lawrence – One of Tennessee’s top instate and overall targets, the 4-star S from the Midstate will be making his second visit to campus in two weeks.  The Vols seem to be surging here after seeing their stock dip a bit after former DB Coach Terry Fair, with whom Lawrence had a great relationship, left the staff.  New DC (and de facto DB Coach) Derrick Ansley – an ace recruiter – has made great strides with this relationship in a short period of time and that’s paying off with this visit.  A big development for the Vols here 

OL Richard Leonard – The Kentucky commitment from Florida will be making his first trip to Tennessee this weekend. He has instate offers from Florida State and Miami – both of which he’s recently visited – as well as Oregon, West Virginia and others.  His commitment doesn’t seem particularly strong right now, so the Vols will look to size him up, make a good impression so as to get themselves as involved in the recruitment as they want, and go from there

Commitments: Along with Bailey, DL Dominic Bailey, RB Ebony Jackson, and LS Will Albright will all be on campus

That’s obviously an outstanding list, including many of Tennessee’s top targets.  The Vol staff has done a great job all winter/spring of getting prospects to campus and as the culmination of that the Orange & White Game, especially considering the other schools fighting to get many of these same kids to campus, is a huge win.

Elite prospects who the Vols will be fighting to get to campus:

ATH Demarcus Beckwith

ATH Kristian Story

DB Joel Williams

DL Jaquari Wiggles

Memphis natives DL/OL Omari Thomas, WR Darin Turner and RB Jabari Small will be at Memphis on Friday night so their respective weekend plans are up in the air

Instate Prospects who Tennessee would love to have on campus

DL Jay Hardy

DL Tyler Baron

OL Marcus Henderson

DL Tre’vonn Rybka

LB Bryson Eason

LB Martavius French

ATH Elijah Young

Obviously more visitors will be added to Tennessee’s list between now and then, hopefully from the groups above, and the Vols will no doubt host prospects from the 2021 and even 2022 classes as well.  DE Dylan Brooks, the newly ranked #26 overall player in the 2021 class, is one who’s already scheduled to be in attendance.

Tennessee is already off to an outstanding start with the 2020 class with three of its five committed prospects ranked as 4-stars, the fourth likely to end up as a 4-star in RB Ebony Jackson, and he fifth an instate LongSnapper.  Coach Pruitt will certainly be hoping to add to that quality with at worst having made headway with multiple elite prospects and at best that progress as well as more commitments coming out of the weekend.

Team rankings are exciting, but can also be deceiving. The better benchmark is SB Nation’s blue chip ratio: if you want to be in the national championship conversation, at least half of your signees need to be four-or-five star players.

Phillip Fulmer hired Jeremy Pruitt over easier and safer choices because he wanted to be in the national championship conversation. While the Vols were making slow but noticeable progress on the field in his first year, his first full recruiting class is already on the right side of the ratio.

With the additions of Darnell Wright and Henry To’oto’o, 13 of Tennessee’s 23 signees are blue chip prospects in the 247 Composite. That’s 56.5%. And that’s the best Tennessee has done in blue chip ratio in a long, long time.

Here’s the post-Fulmer era in blue chip ratio:

Year	Blue Chip	Signees	Ratio
2019	13	23	0.565
2018	8	22	0.364
2017	5	28	0.179
2016	10	23	0.435
2015	16	30	0.533
2014	16	32	0.500
2013	4	23	0.174
2012	10	22	0.455
2011	9	27	0.333
2010	12	27	0.444
2009	9	21	0.429

It gets a little less reliable in tracking the further you go back, but 2019 appears to be Tennessee’s best performance in blue chip ratio since Fulmer’s 2005 class (17 of 26 in Rivals, which would certainly qualify at 65.4%).

You can see where Butch Jones was putting the pieces together to be in the conversation in 2014 and 2015, both times without much on-field success to stand on yet, to his credit. But it’s also true those 2014 and 2015 classes were unusually high on in-state and legacy prospects. This year’s class includes four-star legacy Jackson Lampley and four-star RB Eric Gray from Memphis. But the other 11 blue chip prospects are from Georgia, North Carolina, West Virginia, Pennsylvania, and California.

Jones never turned those recruiting classes into more than 9-4 seasons, and it remains to be seen if Pruitt can come closer to the championship conversation. But this class is worth more praise than a generic, “12th in the nation/not bad for a 5-7 team.” If what we saw finalized today becomes the norm, the Vols will have one of the most important pieces to the championship puzzle.

We use S&P+ during football season (and KenPom for basketball) a lot on our site. Part of it comes from the 10+ years we spent at SB Nation, where Bill Connelly continues to do great work with advanced statistics. And specific to Tennessee, the longer the Vols struggle, the more I believe it’s important to find good ways to distinguish what’s happening year to year.

S&P+ isn’t the best way to rank teams; I still work for the head-to-head police, still believe Penn State should’ve been in over Ohio State two years ago, etc. But S&P+ is one of the best ways to rate teams. It doesn’t judge wins and losses, but places a value on every play, adjusted for each opponent. You can read all about what goes into it here, but in general it includes five factors:

• Success Rate (staying on schedule with five yards on first down, 70% of what’s left on second down, and converting third/fourth downs).
• Points Per Play
• + Scoring Opportunities (what you did inside the 40), Field Position, and Turnover Margin

Not only does S&P+ assign value to every snap, it gives a percentile performance for each game and, ultimately, the season. It’s a good way to distinguish between seasons that finish with similar records, and track a coach and program over time.

Football Outsiders has S&P+ data going back to 2005, including offensive and defensive unit rankings. But a couple off-seasons ago, Bill Connelly published an estimated S&P+ rating for teams as far back as 1970 (all of those links can be found here from Football Study Hall).

We pointed out at the time how S&P+ didn’t rate 1998 as Tennessee’s best team of the 90’s, but instead leaned toward Heath Shuler’s 1993 squad. The ’98 Vols won five one-possession games, plus a fourth quarter comeback in the SEC Championship Game. The ’93 Vols lost to Florida by seven and tied Alabama before ultimately stumbling in the Citrus Bowl against Penn State. But they also decimated everyone else, including a 32-point win over #22 Georgia and 35 points over #13 Louisville. Shuler finished second in the Heisman balloting and the team set a school record for points per game that still stands.

Again, it’s not the best way to rank seasons – ’93 in particular struggles in that department because it lacks a signature win – but it is a good way to ask yourself, “Who would we least like to face?” And the 50 years (okay, 49) of estimated percentile performance give us a ton of context for where Tennessee was, is, and could go.

So, using the data from Football Study Hall, here’s every Tennessee team since 1970 in S&P+, from best to worst:

Team	S&P+ Percentile	Record
1970	97.94	11-1
1993	97.20	9-2-1
1997	96.48	11-2
2001	96.48	11-2
1999	96.00	9-3
1998	95.87	13-0
1972	95.82	10-2
1985	95.46	9-1-2
1995	94.71	11-1
2007	93.30	10-4
2006	92.80	9-4
1990	92.15	9-2-2
1989	91.81	11-1
2009	91.20	7-6
1992	90.80	9-3
1996	89.89	10-2
1974	89.47	7-3-2
1994	87.96	8-4
1991	87.90	9-3
1971	87.28	10-2
1984	87.26	7-4-1
2004	83.56	10-3
2003	82.74	10-3
2015	82.50	9-4
1979	82.48	7-5
2014	81.40	7-6
2005	81.10	5-6
1987	80.48	10-2-1
1983	80.07	9-3
2016	77.60	9-4
2000	75.71	8-4
1980	75.44	5-6
2012	73.60	5-7
2011	73.20	5-7
1975	72.88	7-5
2002	71.06	8-5
2013	69.80	5-7
2008	68.80	5-7
1973	62.75	8-4
1986	59.51	7-5
1976	59.28	6-5
1977	56.32	4-7
1982	55.46	6-5-1
1978	55.04	5-5-1
2010	55.00	6-7
1988	47.16	5-6
2018	39.00	5-7
1981	35.63	8-4
2017	17.40	4-8

The first data point is the highest: the 1970 Vols lost to #17 Auburn in week two, but didn’t fall again. They beat #13 Georgia Tech 17-6, then beat Alabama 24-0 and Florida 38-7 in consecutive weeks. LSU lost a pair of non-conference games in 1970 but went undefeated in the SEC; as the Vols and Tigers did not meet, #5 LSU won the SEC and got a shot at #3 Nebraska in the Orange Bowl, with an outside chance at the national championship. The #4 Vols went to the Sugar Bowl and beat #11 Air Force 34-13. The Cornhuskers beat LSU to claim the national championship when #1 Texas and #2 Ohio State both lost their bowl games; had the Vols played Nebraska instead they too would’ve been playing for the title.

Shuler’s ’93 Vols are second on the list, meaning the two highest-rated teams of the last 50 years both had first-year coaches in Bill Battle and Phillip Fulmer. From there, it’s the list you expect: the most memorable seasons from the decade of dominance, Condredge Holloway’s 1972 Vols, and the 1985 Sugar Vols.

Here’s what it looks like over time:

And here’s the Google Sheet where you can interact with the data.

So…what can we learn here?

The Last Two Years Really Have Been Rock Bottom

In S&P+, the 2017 season is the worst of the last 50 years by a significant margin. The Vols went 4-8, but it was more than that. The Vols were statistically dominated in the win over Georgia Tech. And UT was both non-competitive in five blowout losses, and failed to measure up play-for-play in close losses to Florida, South Carolina, and Kentucky. The S&P+ win expectancy in those three games: 19%, 23%, and 33%, plus just 23% against Georgia Tech.

Only 1981 kept 2018 from making it back-to-back years at the bottom of S&P+. The ’81 Vols are an interesting example of how S&P+ works: Tennessee went 8-4, but the four losses were by 44 to Georgia, 36 to USC, 19 to Alabama, and 11 to Kentucky. Meanwhile the Vols beat Auburn and Georgia Tech by identical 10-7 scores, beat Vanderbilt by four, and survived Wichita State 24-21. Play-for-play, the ’81 Vols were really bad…but they found a way to win every close game. And that team, and the ones to follow, help teach us a good lesson.

The Early 80’s as a Guide?

The records didn’t show straight-line improvement for Johnny Majors from 1981-84: 8-4, 6-5-1, 9-3, 7-4-1. But in S&P+, the Vols were getting stronger every year, laying the groundwork for the SEC title in 1985.

The 2018 Vols are third-worst in S&P+ in the last 50 years…but they were significantly better than their predecessors. It’s easy to make things pass/fail: if the Vols had beaten South Carolina, Missouri, or Vanderbilt to get bowl eligible at 6-6, it would’ve seemed a lot easier to praise Jeremy Pruitt for his year one work. But play-for-play, Tennessee made progress.

You always start with wins and losses, and in the end, you circle back there. But in between, it’s worth valuing every play. And while there’s a long way to go back to the top, Tennessee took a solid first step away from the bottom in 2018.

The Ups and Downs of Any Program

S&P+ puts 2006 and 2007 in a different light too. After an abundance of close wins in 2003 and 2004 (and close losses in 2005), the Vols were far closer to their 90’s neighbors in 2006: one-point loss to the eventual champs, four-point loss to Top 10 LSU, and significant blowouts of Cal and Georgia. The Vols got blown out three times in 2007, but the weight of the ongoing Fulmer conversation probably made us undervalue Tennessee blowing out Georgia and Arkansas in return.

2008 was still the worst year of the Fulmer era; the last ten years may have changed your mind, but in the moment there were certainly reasonable arguments for moving on in wins and losses. But play-for-play, the Vols weren’t far away in the two years before Fulmer was out, and nearly returned to the same form with Fulmer’s players in Lane Kiffin’s one and only year.

Since then, things have trended downhill in a hurry. Even what some may think of as the good Butch Jones years – 2014-2016 – were, both play-for-play and in the end result, several steps behind Tennessee’s best days.

I’m not sure it’s realistic to make the 90’s the definition of success; in the last 50 years that’s the ceiling, but not always where we live. Since 1970 the Vols are better understood as a program capable of hitting those high notes – and its current athletic director hired a coach with that possibility in mind – but also one that has its ups and downs, and is currently in the middle of a historic down. Progress, for Fulmer and Pruitt, looks first like getting the Vols above the thresholds Dooley and Butch reached but could not surpass. At this point, in these ratings, it’s still a steeper climb than either of them faced. But looking for said progress is part of the fun. It’ll always be easier when the Vols are winning close games instead of losing them. But so far for Jeremy Pruitt, progress is there.

Any program is a roller coaster over the course of 50 years. We come back every fall because we love the ride itself, not just the wins. History suggests we’ve never been as low as in the last two years…but history also shows the heights this program can attain. And we’re in the middle of a basketball season showing us you can always go higher.

For the Vols, and for Pruitt, right now it’s simply about going forward.