Tennessee is playing for bowl eligibility on Saturday, but also to even its record this decade. The Vols are 55-56 since 2010. A win would tie them with Ole Miss and Arkansas for the decade as the only SEC teams with a better winning percentage than the usual basement dwellers from Kentucky and Vanderbilt. Kentucky is obviously up this year, but still trails over the decade at 47-63. Vanderbilt sits at 49-62.
But head-to-head, the Vols and Dores have split the decade so far. And more often than not, what Tennessee has done against the Commodores has played a significant role in the success or failure of their season. It’s not the measuring stick we envisioned at the start of the decade. The Vols can take an important step in leveling up by getting past the Commodores tomorrow.
Here’s a look back at how the last eight meetings have defined Tennessee’s season:
2010: At 4-6, Tyler Bray made his third start and led the Vols to a 24-10 win in Nashville to keep bowl eligibility alive. The Vols beat Kentucky the following week for a successful end to Derek Dooley’s first regular season.
2011: This decade is full of wildly entertaining games in the moment that didn’t stand the test of time because the season was ultimately unsuccessful. One of the best examples: after Tyler Bray missed five games with a broken thumb, he led the 4-6 Vols to a 14-7 halftime lead over a 5-5 James Franklin squad. But a 100-yard pick six tied the score, then Vandy took the lead with 12 minutes to play. A 13-play drive was capped with a fourth-and-goal touchdown pass to Da’Rick Rogers, setting the stage for overtime. Eric Gordon pick-sixed Jordan Rodgers (after a lengthy review) for the win. It was a great step forward in Bray’s return, and positioned Dooley to earn bowl eligibility again…and then the Vols lost at Kentucky.
2012: Dooley’s final game as head coach was a 41-18 beat down from Franklin and the Commodores. His fate was likely already sealed and Tennessee fans were simply interested in moving on. But while losing to Vanderbilt is uncomfortably common now, this loss was the first in the series since 2005 and the second since 1982, and the margin was jarring.
2013: Butch Jones came to his first Vanderbilt game in the exact position Jeremy Pruitt finds himself in now. A Josh Dobbs you’d never recognize now went 11-of-19 for 53 yards, the Vols failed to convert a faked field goal up 10-7 with 12 minutes to play, and after a fourth-and-one stop was overturned, Patton Robinette capped a 12-play, 92-yard drive with a touchdown with 16 seconds to play. It cost the Vols bowl eligibility and dampened some of the good memories of a near miss vs Georgia and a win over #4 South Carolina.
2014: Back in the same boat at 5-6, this time the Vols made it work. An 11-play, 94-yard third quarter drive put Tennessee in front 17-10, and a late score from Dobbs pushed the margin to 24-10 before a Vanderbilt score in the final seconds made the final margin 24-17. The Vols earned bowl eligibility for the first time in three years, and dominated Iowa in Jacksonville.
2015: The only business-as-usual Tennessee-Vanderbilt game of the decade. The Vols won 53-28 over a 4-7 Vanderbilt team behind 331 rushing yards, carrying Tennessee to the Outback Bowl.
2016: The most costly of any of these losses. With a clear path to the New Year’s Six, Tennessee led 34-24 with four minutes to play in the third quarter. From there: Vanderbilt touchdown, Tennessee fumble, Vanderbilt touchdown, Tennessee missed field goal, Vanderbilt touchdown, Tennessee turnover on downs. An already contentious season for Butch Jones took a hard turn into disappointment, setting the stage for his exit the following season.
2017: Jones was out, but the Vols still had a chance to avoid the first 4-8 season in program history. It was not to be: despite a 14-7 lead and trailing only 21-17 with five minutes to play in the third quarter, the defense again surrendered three straight touchdowns down the stretch. Vanderbilt finished 5-7, the Vols 4-8.
Four wins, four losses. The 2011 win was lost in the disaster in Lexington the following week, but I’d say you can draw a straight line between relatively successful regular seasons in 2010, 2014, and 2015 and beating the Commodores. A regular season that might feel more successful than any since 2010 will turn on what the Vols do against Vanderbilt one more time tomorrow.