Category Archives: Football

The win itself doesn’t feel like a total surprise, though definitely a relief. The Vols were +5 at the closing line today, and we’re in no position to be ungrateful, so well done by Jeremy Pruitt and his staff in getting their third SEC win as an underdog.

Tennessee coming away with the win doesn’t feel like the headline. But the way it happened, on both sides of the ball, is breaking news.

Seven sacks against an SEC foe? First time this decade. Only 14 passing attempts? Fewest against any opponent this decade.

Selling out to stop the SEC’s leading rusher on one side of the ball, and suddenly playing without your freshman spark at quarterback on the other side? The Vols had no business finding much success impacting MSU’s passing game, or running the ball when everyone knew it was coming.

And yet.

The Vols had 190 rushing yards on 44 carries; 4.3 yards per carry is the third-best mark under Pruitt in SEC play, behind the Kentucky win last year and the Vanderbilt game when the Vols got only 14 carries in falling behind. On this game’s most crucial drive in the fourth quarter, with the Vols facing their worst field position of the day and awaiting diagnosis on a potential case of the oh-no’s in Neyland Stadium, Ty Chandler immediately ran for 6 and 15 yards, then Tim Jordan for 7 and 12. When everyone knew it was coming and the Vols had to have it anyway, they got it. Easily.

Darrell Taylor had two sacks to bring his career total to 14. Bryce Thompson got one blitzing from the secondary. The other four: the first career sacks at Tennessee for Darel Middleton, Matthew Butler, Kivon Bennett, and Aubrey Solomon. Any one of those guys getting a sack today would’ve felt like a bonus coming in. All of them cashed in.

Other than Texas A&M – only four more years until they come to Knoxville for the first time! – we probably have less of a relationship to Mississippi State than any other team in the SEC. That makes it harder to get a feel for their program, expectations, etc. But I’d say one’s opinion on the trajectories of these two programs has shifted in the last couple weeks:

Today’s game was REAL BAD. Lots of things about today’s game were REAL BAD. Check out all the things that were REAL BAD on https://t.co/Fg5ZIyEyFI https://t.co/GU2weooom0

— For Whom the Cowbell Tolls (@mstatesports) October 12, 2019

Because the Bulldogs lost at home to Kansas State, were obliterated by Auburn, had a bye week, and then turned in this performance today? There’s a part of me that’s wondering if Mississippi State is, in fact, real bad, despite being the favorite and finishing eighth in SP+ last season.

Either way, today was real good for Tennessee.

Bama’s next; we know the drill there. The ask on the other side will be four wins in five games against South Carolina, UAB, at Kentucky, at Missouri, and Vanderbilt. After today, we’re firmly in not-probable-but-possible range.

The Vols and Pruitt are still playing the long game. That exercise looked like giant question marks at quarterback and on both sides of the line not at all long ago, the three worst places for uncertainty in the SEC. Midway through the season, the Vols are still 2-4 with costly losses on the front end. But those most important questions, at least for today (and a little bit of last week), look a little more answerable. We’ll see what happens with Brian Maurer’s concussion protocol; credit Jarrett Guarantano for making every throw he needed to make today. Credit Tennessee’s offensive line for not needing those throws. And credit the defensive line – and so many names therein – for going from an absolute liability in game one to holding the SEC’s leading rusher to 11 carries for 13 yards and seven sacks. Seven!

Any win was a good win today; in isolation, this one deserves all the singing and celebration after what we’ve been through. The schedule presents possibility.

But the biggest news of all today wasn’t the what, but the how. Are the young Vols getting significantly better at quarterback, offensive line, and defensive line? For present and future, that’s the biggest news of all.

Beat Bama.

At the midway point of the season, we’ve finally got a game where the match-up itself is the most interesting story.

Not many of us, including me, took the time to preview Georgia State. Bad idea, it turns out, but we made up for it in word count the next week. Then the end of the BYU game ensured Tennessee and Jeremy Pruitt would be the lead story through Chattanooga and into Gainesville, where the Vols lost 34-3 and it seemed like there was no point in talking about how to beat Georgia.

And there probably wasn’t; the quarterback change got our rightful attention. But with Brian Maurer passing his first test against #3 Georgia, “bowl” has re-entered the vocabulary. It’s still probably a conversation for after a win like this one – I’ve got the Vols at 4.25 in expected win total – but Mississippi State comes to Knoxville at 3-2, not the 5-0 some of us thought possible. One of those losses was at home to Kansas State, the other a 56-23 beat down at Auburn in which they trailed 49-9 90 seconds into the third quarter.

Mississippi State is currently favored at -6.5, making this just the second time in the first six games the line is single digits (BYU +3). Something similar happened last season: the Vols were +10 against West Virginia and +3.5 against Florida, then didn’t see single digits again until +9 at South Carolina.

Last season Mississippi State finished 8-5 but 8th in SP+, due to one of the most difficult schedules in college football after catching Kentucky and Florida from the SEC East. They beat Texas A&M 28-13 then rolled Ole Miss 35-3 in Oxford to end the regular season on a high note, though a loss to Iowa in the Outback Bowl soured that a bit. As is the case with the entire field, Year Two has not been as magical for Joe Moorehead.

With all eyes on Maurer, what have opposing quarterbacks done against the Bulldogs this season?

Team	Cmp	Att	Pct	Yds	YPA	TD	INT	Result
Louisiana	24	39	61.54%	267	6.85	1	1	L 38-28
So. Miss.	18	26	69.23%	234	9.00	2	2	L 38-15
Kansas St.	10	18	55.56%	123	6.83	1	0	W 31-24
Kentucky	15	41	36.59%	232	5.66	0	1	L 28-13
Auburn	16	21	76.19%	335	15.95	2	0	W 56-23

Obviously, Bo Nix skews the totals a bit. But so does Sawyer Smith on the other end of the spectrum. On the year, Mississippi State’s 8.1 YPA allowed ranks 102nd in college football. The Bulldogs also have only nine sacks in five games, three coming against Smith and Kentucky.

What’s been most helpful to Mississippi State’s defense: getting off the field on third down, where opponents are converting just 31.4%, 23rd best for a defense. The Vols went 5-of-12 against Georgia; Guarantano was 1-of-3 in late action, though one of those plays was a 3rd-and-20 after a Maurer sack, so the runs go to him.

The Bulldogs have also turned away the opposition five times in 20 red zone appearances, an impressive 75% scoring percentage allowed. But 13 of those 15 scores were touchdowns, making Bob Shoop’s defense feast or famine in the red zone.

Will this be a breath of fresh air for Tennessee’s freshman quarterback after facing Florida and Georgia? The Vols’ young offensive line is banged up, and Mississippi State had last week off. It’s tough to pick Tennessee when the Vols have only beaten Chattanooga. But if you’re looking for a real live opportunity – on a number of levels – this is it.

Go Vols.

The Bulldogs opened as a 6.5-point favorite over Tennessee, and the line has now moved to 7. Will the Vols cover against Mississippi State?

The SPM’s performance so far in 2019

The SPM went 26-20 (56.52%) in Week 6 on all games. Above the pre-chosen confidence level it was 12-4 (75%) and within the pre-chosen confidence range it was 5-2 (71.43%). That’s a bit odd, as it’s usually better in the range than just over the threshold, but there you are.

For the season, the SPM is doing well in its feel-good spots but still playing catch up overall. It’s 132-143 (48%) overall, 66-58 (53.23%) above the confidence level, and 33-20 (62.26%) within the confidence range. The SPM was feeling confident last week when it predicted that Georgia would cover the 25.5-point spread, and to our dismay it was right.

So what does the SPM have to say about the Tennessee-Mississippi State game? Let’s have a look.

Vols-Bulldogs

From the perspective of Mississippi State

Bulldogs points:

• Mississippi State scoring offense for the season: 30.2
• Tennessee scoring defense for the season: 28.8

The Tennessee scoring defense is most similar to the following prior Mississippi State opponent(s) (FBS only):

• Southern Mississippi 30.4
• Kentucky 24.4

Mississippi State scored 28 points against Kentucky and 38 points against Southern Mississippi. So, against the two best comps, Mississippi State is scoring 1.2 of what those teams usually give up.

Estimated points for Mississippi State against Tennessee: 34.6

Tennessee points:

• Tennessee scoring offense for the season: 23.6
• Mississippi State scoring defense for the season: 28.6

The Tennessee scoring offense is most similar to the following prior Mississippi State opponent(s):

• Kentucky 23.4
• Southern Mississippi 27.6

Against Kentucky, Mississippi State allowed 13 points, and against Southern Mississippi, they allowed 15, meaning Mississippi State allowed only 0.55 of what those teams usually score.

Estimated points for Tennessee against Mississippi State: 13

Estimated score: Mississippi State 34.6, Tennessee 13

From the perspective of Tennessee

Tennessee points:

• Tennessee scoring offense for the season: 23.6
• Mississippi State scoring defense for the season: 28.6

The Mississippi State scoring defense is most similar to the following prior Tennessee opponent(s) (FBS only):

• BYU 31.2
• Georgia State 40.8

Tennessee scored 26 points against BYU and 30 points against Georgia State, which means that Tennessee scored 0.78 of what those teams usually give up.

Estimated points for Tennessee against Mississippi State: 22.3

Mississippi State points:

• Mississippi State scoring offense for the season: 30.2
• Tennessee scoring defense for the season: 28.8

The Mississippi State scoring offense is most similar to the following prior Tennessee opponent(s):

• Florida 32.3
• Georgia State 36.4

Tennessee allowed 34 points to Florida and 38 points to Georgia State. So, against the two best comps, Tennessee allowed 1.05 of what those teams usually score.

Estimated points for Mississippi State against Tennessee: 31.7

Estimated score: Tennessee 22.3, Mississippi State 31.7

SPM Final Estimates

Tossing all of that into the soup, here’s what the SPM cooks up:

SPM Final estimated score: Mississippi State 33.2, Tennessee 17.6

SPM Final estimated spread: Mississippi State -15.6

SPM Confidence level: 9.1

That 9.1 confidence level is in the confidence range that the SPM likes the best this season. In other words, this is one of its favorite picks this week. SPM, I hated you last week, and I hate you again this week.

Eyeball adjustments

Here’s the thing. The SPM is for the most part blissfully unaware of Mississippi State’s game against Auburn. It’s accounted for in the Bulldogs’ offensive and defensive scoring numbers for the year, but it is completely ignored as a comp. Whether it should be or not is, of course, the question. Tennessee is not Auburn. But whether that game revealed some exploitable vulnerability, well, that is the question. The SPM also doesn’t know the names “Jarrett Guarantano” or “Brian Maurer” or how either of those names translates into points.

With that, I’m torn. I trust the machine in that confidence range, but over 15 just seems too high. If I was picking this game with my eyes closed and computer off, I’d probably go with 20 points for the Vols and 24-27 for the Bulldogs. So, my eyeball-adjusted prediction is Mississippi State 27, Tennessee 20, a spread of 7. That’s still a prediction that the Vols won’t cover. I now hate myself, too.

Other predictions from other systems

The Vegas line opened with Mississippi State a 6.5-point favorite, and it has now moved to 7. The over/under of 53 translates to Mississippi State 30, Tennessee 23. ESPN’s FPI gives the Vols a 35% chance of winning.

Bill Connelly’s SP+ likes Georgia, 31-25, and gives the Vols a 37% chance of winning. That’s a spread of -6, so it’s picking Tennessee to cover. SP+ cooled just a wee bit last week, going 26-22 (54%) overall, but it’s still hot enough to scorch at 58% on the season. As I said earlier, our SPM is only 48% on the season, but it was 56.52% this week. It’s over 62% in our feel-good range.

Bottom line

Both I and the SPM think the Vols fail to cover the opening 6.5-point spread this week.

What do y’all think?

The Vols host Mississippi State this Saturday at noon on the SEC Network. In addition to that, there’s the Red River Rivalry, a Top 25 SEC matchup, a Top 10 SEC matchup, and some future Vols opponents in action. Here’s when and where to find those games, along with some suggestions on how and why to watch them.

First up is the list curated just for Vols fans. The full schedule follows that.

Wednesday, October 9, 2019

Thursday, October 10, 2019

Friday, October 11, 2019

There are three maybe-decent games on Friday night, although with the Vols game kicking at noon on Gameday, I wouldn’t recommend the Colorado-Oregon game that starts at 10:00, except for the whipper-snappers who haven’t figured out that sleep is important yet. #GetOffMyLawn

Gameday, October 12, 2019

The Vols kick the day off at noon on the SEC Network against the Mississippi State Bulldogs. At the same time, former opponent Georgia hosts future opponent South Carolina on ESPN. Meanwhile, the casual nation’s eyes will be on the Red River Rivalry on Fox, also at noon.

The main game in the afternoon slot is a Top 25 SEC matchup between No. 1 Alabama and No. 24 Texas A&M on CBS. There are two future Vols opponents in action in that slot, too, in Vanderbilt and UAB, so DVR them for scouting and maybe just check in with them live if the Tide-Aggies game gets out of hand.

The prime time slot features a Top 10 SEC matchup between the No. 7 Florida Gators (boo!) and the No. 5 LSU Tigers (Geaux Tigahs!) That one’s on ESPN at 8:00. Future opponent Missouri is also in action on ESPN2 at 7:00 against Ole Miss.

Enjoy!

Full searchable college football TV schedule

We’ve mentioned the struggles Vol quarterbacks faced when making their first start in the middle of a season: Jarrett Guarantano, Josh Dobbs, Nathan Peterman, and Justin Worley all failed to lead a touchdown drive in their first appearance as a starter. Brian Maurer passed that test with flying colors. So, what do mid-season replacements tend to do in their second start?

Guarantano’s second start was at #1 Alabama in 2017. It’s an unfair data point, but here it is anyway: 9-of-16 (56.3%) for 44 yards (2.8 ypa) with no touchdowns and an interception. For the third game in a row and the second under Guarantano, the Vols failed to score an offensive touchdown (though Rashaan Gaulden got six points and two digits).

If you’ll allow game three, Guarantano got much better. At Kentucky the following Saturday, he was 18-of-23 (78.3%) for 242 yards (10.5 ypa). He didn’t throw a touchdown (or an interception), but Ty Chandler did crack the end zone twice. The Vols attempted six field goals, Cimaglia made four of them, but Kentucky prevailed 29-26.

In 2013, Josh Dobbs also went from the frying pan to the fire in his second start. After failing to produce a touchdown drive in a 31-3 loss at #9 Missouri, the Vols returned home to play #9 Auburn. Dobbs’ numbers were about the same: 16-of-25 (64%) for 128 yards (5.1 ypa) with no touchdowns and an interception, plus 10 carries for 50 yards. The Vols did take a 13-6 lead on the first play of the second quarter on a Rajion Neal run, then used a pick six just before halftime to close within 27-20. But Auburn finished the game on a 28-3 run.

Justin Worley’s second start came against MTSU in 2011, a 2-10 Blue Raiders squad. In the frat house kicker game – shout out Derrick Brodus and Alcoa High School – Worley went 23-of-32 (71.9%) for 291 yards (9.1 ypa) with a touchdown in a 24-0 victory.

So the good news: no one got worse. Guarantano played Bama but was much better in start three, Dobbs played two top ten teams and was about the same, Worley was much better against a bad team. That’s a good precedent for Maurer, who gets to take a breath between Georgia and Alabama in what’s become a big game against Mississippi State. His first start already exceeded historical expectations. The same history says he doesn’t have to take a step backward in start number two.

• Barnes: ‘I love this place’, via SEC Sports
• QB questions surround Tennessee, Mississippi State, via SEC Sports

Below is a look at Tennessee’s national stat rankings side-by-side with the corollary rankings for Mississippi State. If the numbers hold, Maurer shouldn’t be too pressed for time, the Vols defense will have its hands full against the Bulldogs’ run game but shouldn’t have to worry too much about the passing game, and Tennessee could have some opportunities in the game’s third phase.

Vols on offense

If there’s anything happy for the Vols here, it’s that Mississippi State doesn’t appear to be a threat behind our own line of scrimmage, so Maurer should have time to throw and the running backs should have some opportunity to get headed in the right direction before meeting up with the defense.

The Bulldogs are good on both third and fourth downs, though, and they’re stingy in the red zone, and none of these are things Tennessee’s well equipped to do anything about.

Other than that, Mississippi State appears to have advantages in most of the defensive categories, but they are only slight.

Vols on defense

The Bulldogs do not appear to be much of a threat on offense, and they are particularly bad in the passing game. Their numbers make them look like a one-dimensional running team, so the winning strategy would seem to be selling out to stop the run.

Special teams

The bad news is that Tennessee’s special teams regressed last week against Georgia. The good news is that they have a long way to fall to be as bad as Mississippi State, whose numbers suggest that they’ve been struggling on special teams for most of the 2019 season. There are some serious opportunities for the Vols on kickoff and punt returns.

Turnovers and penalties

Both teams look about equal in the penalty department, but the Bulldogs look much better at protecting the ball and taking it from their opponents.