Gameday on Rocky Top Podcast – Episode 158 – Brian Maurer, Jack Bauer edition

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Joel:
This is the Gameday on Rocky Top podcast episode one fifty eight. I'm Joel Hollingsworth and I'm with Will Shelton, will we? Okay. So the Florida game after right after the Florida game, I had said I think it was on this podcast that Tennessee had done the impossible, that they'd gone into a game with low expectations and failed to meet them, sort of making a joke, you know, but it was kind of kind of true. And then last night against the number three Georgia Bulldogs were recording this Sunday night. So I'm talking about Saturday night. Of course, they kind of did the impossible. Again, they they they were huge underdogs. I think it was at kickoff. It was like a twenty five and a half point spread. They failed to cover it. And yet we kind of came out of the game kind of feeling that everything was a little bit better. And that seems to be not just me, but sort of the theme among the media and some of the fans. So what do you think? Do you feel that same way? Or are. Am I just in my own little bubble here?

Will:
Oh, no, I don't think you're in the bubble at all. I a piece I'm working on for tomorrow. I said that. You know, the answer still needs to be after every game. We need more data that needs that needs to still be the answer. Like we go into these games knowing, OK, whatever happens here, there's gonna be another one that's going to tell us a little more about what's going on and a better one, too, than playing number three, Georgia. So we need to remember eyes by we I mean, I I need to remember after Florida. Yes, we need more data. We know we don't have enough. It's only been 16 games, whatever. And after a performance that I think does make all of us feel better about things, we need more data. Let's let's see where this goes and all that. So I don't think I liked what you wrote. I don't think we have to define it as a turning point. Capital T. Capital P. It feels a little bit to me like the Oklahoma game in 2014. So when you have a game like that Oklahoma game in 2014, where I don't know, on the front end, we'd have to get in a time machine and go back five years. If on the front end you said Oklahoma is gonna beat you by twenty four. Well, I don't know that we're gonna feel great about that. And certainly on the front end of this thing, if you said, hey, there's gonna be another four plus possession loss, you know, even if you gave us the same weirdnesses having against Georgia two years in a row where the score gets inflated by a fumble, ran back for a touchdown it at the end of the game, you know, that makes three possession of the into a four possession of air.

Will:
But I think that's. There is now some excitement just because of the nature of the quarterback position itself. Bauer did a thing that I don't even think Garen Tanno could have done this year because he's a redshirt junior that could be a graduate transfer. He could could've gone early to the NFL, that sort of thing. I've been saying for months and months and months, even before the loss of Georgia State, that Jeremy Pruitt s fate isn't going to be decided by Jarrett Guarantano, good or bad. But I just think we all assumed that Harrison Bailey or some other recruit would be the one that helped decide that fate and not Brian Mauer. But once you see Mauer, you enter into this this new realm of possibility opens up that this guy could possibly possibly be an answer for you at quarterback in future years when Pruitt really needs to come through. When when the rent's going to come due on this guy, maybe maybe you've got a guy that possibly could be the quarterback in that situation.

Will:
And that just makes you feel a whole lot different there. At least it does for me about a lot of the other young guys, because if we can, at least in pencil, write in Brian Bauer, question mark at quarterback. Now I'm starting to feel better about some of the other pieces where before it was like, hey, Eric Gray is great and Toto is great. And all these guys like, is it gonna matter if we can't find a quarterback? It's not going to matter if Tennessee can't find guys to get to the defensive linemen, to get to the passer and I going to matter. So there's still plenty work to be done. We need more data, but just the nature of what some semblance of hope for present and future. Most importantly for Tennessee right now, some semblance of hope at the quarterback position makes a lot of this feel very different to me. Did you I mean, you know, you talked about last week, you thought, let's keep playing Garen's Hannah. Let's let's get the crumbs and turn around. Cheney's done that before. How how did you experience all this with with Mauer? Because I was I was more. OK, well, let's at least, you know, it'll spark some interest, that kind of stuff. What was your take on? That's the emotion of that whole seeing the backup come in and play well.

Joel:
Ok. So it's like you're reading my notes here because that's actually

Will:
Ok.

Joel:
My next question

Will:
This

Joel:
Here.

Will:
Is a long term relationship, you and I,

Joel:
They

Will:
You

Joel:
Can't

Will:
Know.

Joel:
Finish each other's sentences here. So I don't have this actually all the way planned out. So you're going to have to bear with me and just listen to me, try to formulate it on the fly. OK. But there's a lot of optimism coming from that change. And I am all for that. I was glad to see the guy play well. I'd rather be wrong and have the team play well than be right and have haven't be bad. Right. But here's the thing. What? After Florida, after they lost Franks, we were having this conversation about Tennessee and backup quarterbacks. Right.

Will:
It's.

Joel:
You know, I'm going,

Will:
No.

Joel:
But.

Will:
I'm intrigued.

Joel:
Ok. So we're having this conversation. We're like, oh, no. You know, Tennessee's got to play a backup quarterback and ask the question, what is it about backup quarterbacks that sort of do a team in in? It's kind

Will:
Yeah.

Joel:
Of it's kind of like one or two things. It's it's either the juice because the guy comes in and he's you know, he's still got all these hopes and dreams, none of which have been dashed. Right. And he's excited. He comes in with this huge level of enthusiasm and inspiration and motivation. He's he's juiced. Right. And then the rest of the team is like, oh, no, we got we get this brand new guy and we we better play well to to make up for any mistakes he might make. Right. So it's the extra juice, not just the quarterback, but the rest of the team. And then also the other thing is that the defensive game plan basically goes out the window, at least when the guy comes in in the middle of the game or before you know that he's going to play. Right. You've never seen the guy, especially if he's brand new. You haven't seen the guy play. You don't know what he does. Well, even if they're going to play the same system, he might be faster. He might be shift year. He might make different decisions and different scenarios and things like that. So you got the juice and you got the the destruction of the defensive game plan.

Joel:
And then I think you brought up that. Oh, don't worry, because a lot of times these guys don't generally play that well the next game. And the rationale behind that is you lose a little bit of juice if they've lost. But mostly the defense now has something to look at, something the game plan for. And now it's the new quarterback who has to adjust on the fly. OK. So so here's what I'm thinking. Did that happen to Mauer in the second half? And is it going to happen the next game or for a couple of more games? So I think that Cheney and Pruitt in the in the coaching staff, they have this dilemma. They've got two quarterbacks that are sort of at this plateau and you don't know whether or not they can get any higher. So you got Garen Tanno. And I still think the guarantee antenna's only problem is that he's still getting used to Cheney. And I think that it would just take another couple of games for him to get there. But what's the you know, what's the benefit of that? Maybe we get to a bowl game and maybe next year we go in thinking that we can get eight wins and then he's gone.

Will:
Right.

Joel:
Or do you go with Mauer? And his challenge is that he's got to learn how to play well when the other team isn't surprised anymore. They know what you're going to do. And that's that's a that's a big leap for a guy to make. And I think he can do it. But how many games is going to take? I don't know. But he does have more time. All right. So, anyway, I was wondering what you thought about all of that in which you would choose. Although I also have to say in my notes as I was abbreviate and all the stuff I was using, j.g, you know, because they call tanno j.g. Right. And I made a mental note to not call Brian Maurer B.M..

Will:
Right. Yes.

Joel:
I don't think

Will:
That's.

Joel:
That's a good idea.

Will:
No, that's that's not a good idea. I've been trying to find a way to tie him into Jack Bauer. Brian Bauer

Joel:
Oh,

Will:
And Jack

Joel:
Okay.

Will:
Bauer, but

Joel:
That it work.

Will:
Not have nots. I just really loved that show

Joel:
Added to.

Will:
And I anyway, that has not come to me, but. OK. So

Joel:
But not B.M..

Will:
I've I've I would write I was trying to make some joke about Jack Bauer saying there's no time. But even that is not. It's late. I've been traveling this. We can go braves. But anyway, I think a couple things about that. One, after we talked on the podcast, I did pull those numbers and we wrote this on Friday of here's what Tennessee quarterbacks have done as mid-season replacements in their first starts. And if you didn't read that,

Joel:
I read

Will:
It was

Joel:
It.

Will:
Terrible like the last four guys. Tanno against South Carolina in in 2017 at a point when Tennessee was still you know, it was three and two, they had just gotten whacked by Georgia. But three in two. It was not everything was lost. And Tennessee didn't score a touchdown. Lost fifteen to nine. And most of his whole stat line was on the last drive where they came down and almost scored, but they didn't. So Guantanmo, no touchdowns lost. Fifteen to nine. DOBs at Missouri, when we spent a lot of time, we saw DOBs in the second half against Alabama. And Missouri, that's the first year that they the first of their two back to back division titles. So even though they were ranked ninth, we weren't buying Missouri. That's the infamous five to 30 percent chance of winning a game for long time readers of the site.

Joel:
I love that game.

Will:
And we spent all week I remember going on Sports 180 on that Friday and being like, I feel like people are coming up to me and saying things like, he doesn't have to be Michael Vick. But I'm like, dude, it's don't don't even put him in that same strategy. It's one freshman guy against a top ten defense in his first start on a team that's been kind of bad all year. So I think we talked ourselves into a lot of the idea of DOBs, which came true eventually, but not against Missouri. They lost thirty one to 3, didn't score a touchdown. Peterman, no need to go into that again against Florida. Certainly Worley came in and led touchdown drives, but Peterson did not. And then Worley at a real at a crucial juncture for their dooly when breh is hurt. You've just gotten waxed. Back to back by LSU and Alabama. Here's South Carolina, who is a top 15 team, and they burned Worley's red shirt. So now let's go ahead and start him. And Tennessee lost 14 to 3. They had a they were had an interception at the five yard line and had a chance to take the lead. And Worley threw it right back to them. And then South Carolina went on a 20 play drives it. Folks who remember I was there. It was awful. And South Carolina won 40 to three. So all that to say, the standard for what Tennessee quarterbacks have done in their first start as a midseason replacement was excruciatingly low. So when Mauer came in and threw a touchdown on the sixth snap, it it changed that.

Will:
And then when it wasn't a fluke, I thought, OK. You know, Cheney found himself in coverage. Good double move by Callaway. Good job. By now, I put it on the money. Maybe we snuck one over on him then. The rest of it, you know, really validated the idea that just in comparison to other Tennessee quarterbacks in a similar situation, some of whom went on to be Nathan Peterman, one of them went on to become Josh Dobbs. Mauer did much, much better. The next question which I'll research and write for this week is what do those guys do in their second start? I know Dobbs was Auburn in that death streak of playing a bunch of top 10 teams. Tennessee scored twenty three points of that game. They did give up fifty five, but there was at least some life there. Peterman never got a second shot. I think Worley played like CSU or some like that. What's it got to go back and look at all that? But anyway, there is there's yeah, there's a part of me that is concerned that what we saw in the second half was Georgia figuring him out. And that juice and that surprise element won't be there against Mississippi State. One of my biggest hopes is that everything that we thought about this team at the start of the year, not not we know every one picked Tennessee to go to a ballgame. Everyone was thinking this is a six win team. At least not many folks thought they were a, you know, six or seven. That was everybody's thought. So is there a school of thought here where if you just get adequate quarterback play doesn't need to be spectacular? Because Mauer I mean, he was spectacular in the first half.

Will:
That was spectacular. And then the second half was below average. So if you just get adequate, if you get the mixture of those two things, you just get adequate the rest of the way against South Carolina. Alabama's only opportunity slash don't get hurt. And then the rest of that schedule depending on what's going on with Kelly Bryan at Missouri. Then is Tennessee the rest of the team going to look like a six or seven win football team with adequate quarterback play? I'm hopeful for that. The problem with that is one of those six or seven wins is always going to be Georgia State. I still think, you know, I think if they got to five and seven, that would be an accomplishment. It wouldn't feel that way. But I think if they if they get from one and four to five and seven, knowing that one of those losses is going to be Alabama, I think I think that would be a good job at this point. So I don't know to downplay five and seven or pooh-poohed or anything like that, but I'm just hopeful that that not just for the future expectations of what Tennessee might have, but just for the present that the rest of those pieces, enough pieces to be a six or seven win football team if you beat Georgia State and ah, have been there all along. We'll see again. We need more data.

Joel:
I have missed what's going on with Kelly Bryant. What can you fill me in on that?

Will:
Got hurt in the Missouri game and I don't know the status of that injury, so I have not I've that that may be out by the time people notice or listen to this on Monday. But at the time you are talking, I don't know what its statuses.

Joel:
That's that's a big deal. I mean, that's you know, they're there. Do they have any backup? How did the backup do once he got hurt? Any idea?

Will:
I don't know. I read about it when Bill did the S.P. ratings this morning. He was talking about Missouri's defense, how well Missouri had played after the Wyoming game, but that everything was kind of riding on if Bryant's could go and what that would be like. So I don't know.

Joel:
I did see that they snuck into the top 10 and SB Plus.

Will:
Yeah. Yeah. Not I mean. So the conversation we we're going to want to have here is. If we need to take this in small doses, Tennessee needs to see if they can beat Mississippi State, if they can beat Mississippi State, then we'll play Alabama. Bad things will happen. But after that, then we can have the larger conversation, which is going to be if they beat Mississippi State, you get one freebie. After the Alabama game of Tennessee, Mississippi say there would be two and five, which means you got one loss left if you want to be bowl eligible. Missouri is just operating on a different level than the rest of those teams on Tennessee's schedule. There is the scheduling component itself where Tennessee is on a bye week and Missouri is coming off plan. Georgia and Florida back to back. So that helps. But I know we just talked about it. I know we're not used to giving Missouri as much credit because they're Missouri and they're new to the conference. And I know that they're Dooley is there. And that makes us also want to give them less credit than they deserve. But Missouri's pretty good. And that's so when we say if they beat Mississippi State and they lose Alabama and we say, all right, well, you know, they need to. They've got one freebie that's probably going to be the freebie. So now you're asking them, can they run the table against South Carolina, UAB at Kentucky and Vanderbilt to get the six? Maybe. But in a week that that conversation, we don't need to talk about bowl eligibility this week. I think we need to talk about Mississippi State and let's start there and just see this is still a team that lost the Georgia state. Let's see. Let's let's see what they can do. Mississippi State's coming off the by men. Those guys looked awful against Auburn. So we'll see if this was a big fat data point already before Mauer gave you the possibility that he might be an answer not just for this fall. So.

Joel:
Yeah, they I I haven't looked actually at the spread yet. My. I did run my machine quick this morning and it it liked the Bulldogs by like 15, which I think is high, but it's probably seven would be my guess. I'll look that up in a minute. So what do you think the danger is of of getting Mauer put through the wringer a little too early, you know? I don't know whether I just feel bad for Garran Tanno. And I think this old juice thing. I think it's hard to keep your juice when you have three seasons worth of disappointment. You know, nothing like that can sap your juice any better than that, right? So what what happens with Mauer if he says he's going to lose to Alabama? Probably look terrible, but you know, everybody's survived that. But if he does get through this season and loses all of them, but UAB or all of them, but UAB and one other, does that do any lasting damage to him that we'd have to work to overcome next year? Do you think?

Will:
Good question. And there's really no. We're in uncharted water with with Tennessee in terms of that kind of losing, because the only quarterbacks that have done it are half of Quint Dormandy and half of Jarrett Guarantano. So we don't have anything to compare it to at Tennessee historically, if you're talking about like a 3 and 9. Obviously, that's never happened before. So and even DOBs, you know, DOBs didn't win much when he came in there. But Dobbs's is losing to the second half of Alabama. Number nine, Missouri, the Auburn team that almost won the national championship. You know, Dobsons losing that game and he regressed. We talked about before he game against Vanderbilt at the end of the year. I thought he would never, ever be the answer quarterback for Tennessee. So I think some of it is that I just also the messaging we talk about feeling bad for and tanno the messaging between the seniors on this team and the freshmen just has to be so different. I mean, Garran Tanno is a redshirt junior. He signed and was present here. In 2016? Yeah. Like he was on the team in 16 as a red shirt, so he was around for all of that stuff, same as a Jauan Jennings was around. So he knows what it's like to be at Tennessee when you at least for the first half of the season are chasing a national championship. Or at the very least, and s._e._c East Championship. And now here at the end, you know, there's a bunch of guys on this team who their whole they were recruited to and are now playing through the sense of we're building it, we're building it, it's come in, we're working hard.

Will:
We know we just lost by 20 whatever for the X number of times in a row or whatever. But it's come in. We're building we're we're going to lot of these guys. Joe, I know you're not on Twitter, but a lot of these guys are tweeting today as if I'm sure someone told them to thank you to the fans. We're working hard to get players are tweeting. Thank you to the fans. We're working hard. Don't give up on us, that sort of thing. So in that sense, I feel bad for Tanno because he's you can't sell that to him. You know that literally it's not just what he signed up for. It's not what he experienced his first year at Tennessee. And it's not what he experienced when Dormandy got picked to start over him against Georgia. Georgia Tech in 2017. And so, you know, he's he's from that mindset and it just hasn't paid off. So can Mauer take some lumps and then come out of it on the other side knowing, well, this was just the basement and now we're going to build on it? I don't know if this is a 3 and 9 or worse situation three and that which would be three a night or two in 10 or one and eleven, then whatever warm fuzzies we have about now are going to go away. If he if he can't get a couple of those wins along the way.

Joel:
Yeah.

Will:
Otherwise, you know, even even if there look, even if they're four and eight but competitive after Alabama, then I think you can still say, look, we you know, we lost two games at the start of the year that we never should've lost that aren't on his rap sheet. And and we lost to Florida. That won't be the Gators if he played, but, you know, that's that's not on him either. And we're building it. I think that that can be OK, because that's still the message they're selling to everybody else on the team and in high schools that we're just building from here.

Joel:
Yeah, it's not just if the team goes three and nine, how does Mauer feel about it? It's what happens during the 3 and nine. Like you say, the warm fuzzies are gonna go away. It's gonna be worse than that. It's gonna be you suck. And we never should have recruited you, you know, and that's not fair. You know how he handles it. And you know, it's gonna it's gonna be key. Mississippi State is, by the way, a six and a half point favorite. So, again, my machine says we won't cover. But I kind of want to look closer at the underlying assumptions on that to see whether it makes sense. But how are you? I know it's it's only Sunday night right now. How are you feeling about Mississippi State? We can talk about it more later in the week. But how are you feeling right now about him?

Will:
What I want to say, and I'm afraid this is me believing something I want to be true instead of something that's actually true. I want to say it's a toss up. I would love to say that, you know, on the winning, I think I put 40 percent of the expected win total thing. But you know that it is closer to 50 that we just don't know. Mississippi State lost at home to Kansas State and then looked as bad. I mean, as bad as Tennessee looked against Florida. I thought Mississippi State was worse against Auburn.

Joel:
I think Cockburn's good, though, man.

Will:
Yeah, I get, but I mean, Florida, you know, I know it was close and close and close and a body blow to him and then Piron had a long run and so they went by eleven or whatever. But, you know, I think Florida's good

Joel:
Yeah, I think they're both

Will:
With

Joel:
Good.

Will:
This, which is not some consolation on Tennessee. Like that's a problem for us in the welcome, Arun. Hey, Dan Mullen is a good coach and these guys are good. And we have to play every year. So, yeah, I think they're both good. I think you're right. But what what. Auburn isn't is. Auburn is the best version of themselves that everyone thought they were the playoffs all burnt like that. That ain't it. But they I mean, that was a hot knife through butter against Mississippi State. So, yeah. Part of me wants to say this is a toss up crowd is fans are interested and invested. He hasn't been anybody but Chattanooga this year. And so you know this. We need a win of consequence. And this would be one at this point of the story. So there's lots of lots of folks are looking for reasons to believe on that. Also, it may be the sort of game where Tennessee does something dumb early. And Mississippi State jumps ahead. And now Tennessee thinks, oh, we're we just suck. We're bad. And we get into some of that. So I don't know. But there's nothing we need more data on. Mauer and Mississippi State has not done anything to inspire me to pick them on the road so that I don't know. Yeah. I mean, that's what my gut wants to say is this is a 50 50 toss-up situation.

Joel:
All right, so pop quiz, what was worse Tennessee's loss to Georgia state or the officiating crew in the third quarter last night?

Will:
At least I appreciated the officiating crews honesty. I appreciate that they didn't try to. The guy was like ever further discussion, we changed our mind. This

Joel:
Like 2 2

Will:
Just.

Joel:
Times in a row.

Will:
Yeah,

Joel:
Yeah.

Will:
It's just what happened. They need to make a face mask, needs to be a reviewable penalty. That's not hard. If we can review targeting and we can review passenger fares in the NFL, which is a terrible idea, but facemask is not a judgment call. I mean, I know officials are making it as a judgment call, but en route on review. There should be evidence, your honor, Like it, we should be able to figure that out so that that needs to be reviewable, but. Yeah. You know, I've. It felt like the substitute teacher coming into the classroom and being like, we're going to cross all the T's and dot all the I's baby and everything. That is a penalty. All of it's getting called tonight. So.

Joel:
Yeah. All in like 10 minutes. It was like every play there was a flag thrown.

Will:
Yeah. What haven't we called it? Yeah. Yeah. I

Joel:
And

Will:
Don't

Joel:
Then

Will:
Know

Joel:
There was.

Will:
The Blore, the root. The ref on the fumble, return for a touchdown, call some people some money. Tennessee covers the spread of that refs slip away. So,

Joel:
I have

Will:
You know,

Joel:
To I

Will:
That's

Joel:
Have to.

Will:
That's another friend. Like not not to go back and beat on Garen Tanno any more than we have in the past. But first and goal to 5 at the end of the game and you can't get in the endzone on four tries against Georgia's backups. It is a microcosm of what has been happening with him all season. And you know that that's just. I don't know when you say if we leave him and he'll eventually get it. I just I know he's playing with some backup wide receivers too. But man like that, there is just so little confidence with him in those situations compared to the throw Mauer made. I mean, that was bananas that throw and for for a freshman gets a number three team in the country. So, yeah, I just think confidence is worth a lot more than we're giving it credit for. And Bauers, I would think, still has to be high coming out of that and getting Santo just less so.

Joel:
That is probably true, although wasn't there a series of events that happened before that where we had three of our key guys go out on consecutive plays?

Will:
Offensive lineman, yes.

Joel:
Yeah, there were two two offensive linemen and then there was somebody else who was I don't remember, need to go back and look at that. But yeah, I mean, just then then they cut the Pruitt and he's like, you know, this faces like he can't even believe this is happening because losing all his guys on top of everything else.

Will:
Yeah, and that I mean, that matters. Bauer needs those guys to keep him up right here again, not against Alabama, but against teams like the one we're getting ready to play on Saturday.

Joel:
All right. Anything I missed freestyle freestyle will. I need a rap name for you.

Will:
I think that's. Sometimes on this pike, as we've talked about. Like here's the real worst case scenario. One teeny tiny I mean, not teeny tiny, but one kind of background best case scenario. Consider that all of your really great memories of Marquez Callaway other than catching a Hail Mary against Kentucky last year. All of your really great Marquez Callaway memories are either a punt return or they are associated with Quintin Dermody. Gehrt Tanno and Callaway. Like we never saw the Callaway that we saw against Georgia Tech. With Garran Tanno ever. And so I wonder if there's just something about that dynamic between the two of them or just something great about Mauer and Calloway. But that was refreshing to not have it just be the Jauan Jennings show and be like, oh yeah, this guy's really good. That kid's hemade on third down on the drive. That's the Jenning score. The touchdown on was an unbelievable catch to me. So I am hopeful that maybe Mauer brings out something in Marquez Callaway that for whatever reason, just Garen's and I wasn't bringing out. I would love for that. Calloway from the Georgia Tech game to show up here in the last half of his senior season.

Joel:
Yeah, I will say this, too. Mauer just seems faster, quicker twitch here. You know, the game is is going faster when he's in there. It's the juice. I

Will:
Yeah.

Joel:
Think it's the juice. Yeah. All right. Well, that'll do it for this episode of the Gameday on Rocky Top podcast. Thanks for tuning in. Do us a favor. Subscribe, give us a rating, leave a review. Bonus points tonight if you include in your review. The secret word B.M.. I think we're just gonna go with that. So.

Will:
I'm working on the Jack Bauer stuff. It's been a long time, but I've got a lot of I got a lot of that stored in my memory banks up there. So I'll have to see what I can what I can come up with.

Joel:
I love that show. I would watch. I think I've watched every single episode. It's great. I don't know why it went off, but it needs to come back on. It was great. I watched even it wasn't there. One without Kiefer Sutherland.

Will:
Yeah, I watched the one episode of that, then I was out, but it hit

Joel:
Oh, it was pretty

Will:
My

Joel:
Good.

Will:
Wife. My wife never watched the show. And then the one where he came back, we watched it together. And it was so much fun to watch that show with someone who had never seen 24 before because she was so nervous for Jack Bauer would be like, oh, he's gonna be fine. Like everyone else is in danger every episode and could die at any moment. But

Joel:
Yeah,

Will:
He's going to just fine. So

Joel:
It is.

Will:
That

Joel:
But

Will:
Season and she goes, what did you make me watch this?

Joel:
My wife is the same way. She can't stand all that anxiety is like it's a TV show, you know, it's gonna work, you

Will:
Yeah,

Joel:
Know?

Will:
That

Joel:
I mean.

Will:
Was that was the one. It wasn't the anxiety, it was the spoiler alert. You should turn this off and you've never seen any. 24. That's the one where Audrey dies.

Joel:
Ok.

Will:
That's Alex is like. Like, why? Why? Like, I got invested in these people and then they died. I was like, yes, this is the show. Welcome.

Joel:
Yeah, my my daughter was mad at me for recommending Odd Thomas to her, have you read those?

Will:
I have not.

Joel:
Ok. Dinard Koonce books. Whole series on Odd. Thomas Read. Really good stuff. But yeah, in the very first book is The Love of His Life Dies and she's so mad at me. And then she has to read like 15 more books in order to get the answer on that. But

Will:
I

Joel:
She she thanked

Will:
Do

Joel:
Me later.

Will:
A. I used to when 24 was on the air back in like this would have been like 0 3 0 4. Early on I was going to a worship service on Monday nights at Fellowship Church in Knoxville, Shoutouts of Fellowship Church in Knoxville, and Greg

Joel:
We

Will:
Pinkner, who was

Joel:
Wish

Will:
The pastor

Joel:
To go

Will:
There.

Joel:
There.

Will:
Did you really?

Joel:
Yeah, we did.

Will:
Greg pinkner employed there at the time.

Joel:
No, it was Doug Bannister.

Will:
He may still be on the step of the pinger was leading the college worship services hillarious is. I am a United Methodist pastor. His theology and mine are probably not going to get along all the time these days, but he used to like the worship service would end. It was on Monday nights and it would end at like 8:30. And he would always say some form of like, listen, don't hang out here. Like I'm trying to get home and watch 24 like don't's.

Joel:
Yeah.

Will:
Don't hang out here too long. Dude, you need to do and then leave because people tried to get out of here and watch Jack Bauer and I was one of those people. And so I always

Joel:
Yeah.

Will:
I always appreciate that.

Joel:
Yeah.

Will:
So.

Joel:
Love you. Get out.

Will:
Shout out. That's. Yeah. Shout out Fellowship Church.

Joel:
All right. So we're gonna change the bonus points phrase to Jack Bauer instead of being

Will:
Yeah, well,

Joel:
Jack

Will:
We'll find a way

Joel:
Bauer.

Will:
To work.

Joel:
Yeah. All right. So for Will Shelton, I'm Joel Hollingsworth. This has been the Gameday on Rocky Top podcast. All right, well. Oh, I was the one more thing I was going to say while we were actually still before the close. But yeah, that whole anxiety thing that you feel on 24 only feels that in a little house is like, is it going to be all right? So.

Will:
That's right.

Joel:
Yeah.

Will:
Yeah, I. I love. I never went back and watched because they were just they were always on. I did shut down when I was a youth director this season when the one that starts with. Everybody getting killed. President Palmer and Season 5, I think where the first episode everybody does. You know, and love. I was leading a youth retreat weekend and me and other chevre and we're like, we're watching this. Don't come. Bother's is the last night of the retreat. Everybody's tired. We're like, you talk to these other people from 8:00 tonight. Don't come, bother's. Then everybody dies. The first 50 minutes, you'll be like, hey, man, sharp, leave, leave, leave. No doubt. That was that was an events like maybe it's just the age you are at a certain time. But that stretch of years when twenty four and lost.

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The GRT Expected Win Total Machine: After Georgia

Use the form below to calculate your expected win total for the rest of the season.

The GRT Expected Win Total Machine


My assessment

The Vols appear to have improved despite failing to cover a huge spread against the Bulldogs at home. For that reason, I’m giving them a slight bump.

Meanwhile, Missouri’s looking better, Vanderbilt’s looking worse, and Mississippi State, Alabama, South Carolina, and Kentucky were all resting comfortably.

With this week’s adjustments, I now have an expected win total of . . . 3.85. Continuing to inch up.

  • Preseason: 6.55
  • After Week 0: 6.6
  • After Week 1: 2.87
  • After Week 2: 2.37
  • After Week 3: 3.65
  • After Week 4: 2.9
  • After Week 5: 3.25
  • After Week 6: 3.85

Details: Alabama remains at 5% and Missouri stays at 25%. South Carolina and Mississippi State both move to 40%, Kentucky and Vanderbilt move to 50%, and UAB moves to 75%.

Here’s a table with my expectations this week:

Tennessee Volunteers currently

Current record: 1-4 (0-2), 5th in the SEC East

The Vols’ past opponents

Georgia State Panthers

Current record: 3-2 (1-1), 2nd in the Sun Belt East

The Panthers had 722 yards of offense! It’s not that this loss wasn’t bad, but maybe not quite so horrendous as maybe we thought? Maybe?

BYU Cougars

Current record: 2-3 (0-0)

Off this week.

Chattanooga Mocs

Current record: 3-3 (2-0), 2nd in the Southern Conference

Florida Gators

Current record: 6-0 (3-0), 1st in the SEC East

Raise your hand if you hate the Gators! Will and I disagree a bit about how good Auburn is, but the Gators are looking good, so I’m giving the Vols a bit of a bump because this loss is looking (but not feeling) better.

Georgia Bulldogs

Current record: 5-0 (2-0), 2nd in the SEC East

Again, my thoughts on this one are here.

The Vols’ future opponents

The Bulldogs were also off this week.

Mississippi State Bulldogs

Current record: 3-2 (1-1), 5th in the SEC West

The Bulldogs were off last week, so getting stomped by Auburn the prior week is the last thing we have to go on. If this game moves on my list, it’s because of the Vols.

Alabama Crimson Tide

Current record: 5-0 (2-0), 1st in the SEC West

Alabama was also off.

South Carolina Gamecocks

Current record: 2-3 (1-2), 4th in the SEC East

Did anybody play this week besides us?

UAB Blazers

Current record: 4-1 (1-1), 4th in C-USA West

Rice has lost 17 of its last 18 games, so . . . .

Kentucky Wildcats

Current record: 2-3 (0-3), 6th in the SEC East

Off.

Missouri Tigers

Current record: 4-1 (1-0), 3rd in the SEC East

Missouri looking really good. QB Kelly Bryant left with an injury, but the reports are that he’s going to be ready to roll again this week. Linebacker Cale Garrett, who’s scored three defensive touchdowns this year alone, is out indefinitely, though.

Vanderbilt Commodores

Current record: 1-4 (0-3), 6th in the SEC East

Commodores not looking good. They gave up 413 rushing yards to Ole Miss in this game.

What about you? Where are your expectations for the Vols now?

Corners and continuums: Tennessee 14, Georgia 43

I lightheartedly said on our group therapy podcast after the Florida game that Tennessee had done the impossible, that they’d gone into a game for which the fans really had no expectations and still failed to live up to them. Against No. 3 Georgia Saturday night, the Vols once again did something almost unimaginable, although this time it was on the positive side of the ledger.

Tennessee was a 25.5-point underdog at home to the Georgia Bulldogs. In the end, they got beat by 29 points and failed to cover a monster spread. In a season that was supposed to serve as a turning point for the Jeremy Pruitt Era, they instead fell to 1-4 with another near-certain loss looming in two weeks.

And yet, despite all of that they made you think that maybe they weren’t quite as far away from that proverbial and elusive corner as you’d thought. They made you feel that maybe they were actually improving more rapidly than it had seemed. They made you believe that everything was going to be okay, and maybe sooner rather than later.

It wasn’t just the beginning

It wasn’t just the surprising start to the game, although that was certainly fun. Right after Georgia took its opening drive 84 yards in 12 plays to the end zone for a touchdown, Tennessee matched them with a 75-yard touchdown in two plays. And when the Bulldogs added three points on their next drive, the Vols one-upped them with a touchdown to take the lead, 14-10. The score was 14-13 until under two minutes to go in the first half.

But even when the wheels came off on the scoreboard, you never really felt like there weren’t good, valid, and fixable reasons for Georgia scoring all of the remaining points. The deeper and therefore stronger team leveraged that depth and strength for two touchdowns in the last two minutes of the first half. After that, they managed only a single field goal during a third-quarter penalty plague and then once again leveraged depth and strength for two more touchdowns in the fourth quarter, one of them a defensive score on a fumble and return resulting from a brutal sack that true freshman quarterback Brian Maurer never saw coming. What was indisputably a blowout on the scoreboard never felt like anything but a national championship contender doing what it should do against a rebuilding program.

The Vols had 20 first downs to Georgia’s 26. They were 5-12 on third downs while holding Georgia to 5-11. They had 273 passing yards to Georgia’s 288. Maurer not only had the extra juice the team needed, he hit key throws and kept one of the nation’s best defenses on its heels for most of the first half. Marquez Callaway and Jauan Jennings were big, both getting over 100 yards and touchdowns. The offensive line looked better, and the secondary made some beautiful plays. Everywhere you looked, the guys in orange were absolutely refusing to back down right until the final whistle.

What if there is no corner?

The record books will never identify this game as any kind of turning point for the Tennessee program. But maybe there is no corner, no clear delineation between then and now, today and tomorrow, bad and better and good and elite. Maybe it’s just one long winding road without any signs to let you know where you are until after you get there.

It would be nice if there was an actual metaphorical corner, someplace where you could in one motion turn out of the shadow and into the sun. But maybe it’s just one long continuum of gradients and the sunlight arrives first among the shadows.

I do know one thing for sure, though: Regardless of the data on the dashboard, last night our team put some distance between them and the past.

Your Gameday Gameplan: Tennessee-Georgia

It’s Gameday on Rocky Top, with the Vols hoping to get their legs under them while warding off threats from every angle courtesy of the No. 3 Georgia Bulldogs. Here’s the Gameday Gameplan for Tennessee fans. Where and when to find the Vols game on TV, what other games to watch as well, and what to listen to and read as you wait for kickoff.

When is the Vols game, and what TV channel is it on?

Here are the particulars for today’s Tennessee game:

The best games for Vols fans to watch today

Here’s our list of games to watch today, curated just for Vols fans:

Away Home Time TV How Why
NOON
14 Iowa 19 Michigan 12:00 PM FOX Live Top 25 matchup
AFTERNOON
7 Auburn 10 Florida 3:30 PM CBS Live Top 10 matchup
EVENING
3 Georgia Tennessee 7:00 PM ESPN Live Go Vols

And here’s a searchable version of this week’s entire college football TV schedule:

Date Away Home Time TV
10/3/19 Georgia Southern South Alabama 7:30 PM ESPNU
10/3/19 Temple East Carolina 8:00 PM ESPN
10/4/19 UCF Cincinnati 8:00 PM ESPN
10/4/19 New Mexico San Jose State 10:00 PM CBSSN
10/5/19 Utah State LSU 12:00 PM SECN
10/5/19 Oklahoma Kansas 12:00 PM ABC
10/5/19 Kent State Wisconsin 12:00 PM ESPNU
10/5/19 Purdue Penn State 12:00 PM ESPN
10/5/19 Iowa Michigan 12:00 PM FOX
10/5/19 Oklahoma State Texas Tech 12:00 PM FS1
10/5/19 South Florida UConn 12:00 PM
10/5/19 TCU Iowa State 12:00 PM ESPN2
10/5/19 Maryland Rutgers 12:00 PM BTN
10/5/19 Tulane Army 12:00 PM CBSSN
10/5/19 Boston College Louisville 12:30 PM ACCNX
10/5/19 Eastern Michigan Central Michigan 3:00 PM ESPN+
10/5/19 Auburn Florida 3:30 PM CBS
10/5/19 Bowling Green Notre Dame 3:30 PM NBC
10/5/19 Texas West Virginia 3:30 PM ABC
10/5/19 Ohio Buffalo 3:30 PM ESPN+
10/5/19 Western Michigan Toledo 3:30 PM ESPN+
10/5/19 Ball State Northern Illinois 3:30 PM ESPN3
10/5/19 Arkansas State Georgia State 3:30 PM ESPN+
10/5/19 Baylor Kansas State 3:30 PM ESPN2
10/5/19 Illinois Minnesota 3:30 PM BTN
10/5/19 Air Force Navy 3:30 PM CBSSN
10/5/19 Virginia Tech Miami 3:30 PM ESPN
10/5/19 Marshall Middle Tennessee 3:30 PM
10/5/19 Memphis UL Monroe 3:45 PM ESPNU
10/5/19 Northwestern Nebraska 4:00 PM
10/5/19 North Carolina Georgia Tech 4:00 PM ACCN
10/5/19 Troy Missouri 4:00 PM SECN
10/5/19 Arizona Colorado 4:30 PM
10/5/19 Western Kentucky Old Dominion 6:00 PM ESPN+
10/5/19 Georgia Tennessee 7:00 PM ESPN
10/5/19 Rice UAB 7:00 PM ESPN+
10/5/19 UMass Florida International 7:00 PM ESPN3
10/5/19 Michigan State Ohio State 7:30 PM ABC
10/5/19 Tulsa SMU 7:30 PM ESPNU
10/5/19 Vanderbilt Ole Miss 7:30 PM SECN
10/5/19 California Oregon 8:00 PM FOX
10/5/19 Pittsburgh Duke 8:00 PM ACCN
10/5/19 Liberty New Mexico State 8:00 PM
10/5/19 UTSA UTEP 8:00 PM ESPN+
10/5/19 Oregon State UCLA 9:00 PM
10/5/19 San Diego State Colorado State 10:00 PM ESPN2
10/5/19 Washington Stanford 10:30 PM ESPN
10/5/19 Boise State UNLV 10:30 PM CBSSN

GRT games and contests

While you’re waiting for the games to begin, make sure that you submit your answers to the GRT Guessing Game questions (hey, it’s always the second mouse who gets the cheese) and update your picks for the GRT Pick ‘Em.

GRT game-week audio

Here’s the GRT Podcast from earlier this week:

And here is Will’s regular Friday appearance with Josh Ward and Heather Harrington on WNML’s Sports 180.

Pre-game prep

To catch up on your pre-game reading, have a look at our game preview posts from earlier this week:

And here’s the best of the stuff we curated from other sites this week:

Go Vols!

Mid-Season Replacement QBs at Tennessee

We’ll probably all find out who’s starting for Tennessee within an hour of kickoff. If it’s Brian Maurer, interest will certainly rise, regardless of #3 Georgia on the other sideline. But Tennessee’s recent history suggests the magic bullet usually isn’t:

2017: Jarrett Guarantano vs South Carolina

  • 11-of-18 (61.1%) for 133 yards (7.4 ypa), zero TD/INT

Four of those completions and 72 of those yards came in the final 1:13, with Guarantano taking advantage of South Carolina’s prevent defense. The Vols got looks at the end zone but couldn’t get in. Tennessee ran the ball 39 times to 19 passing attempts, kicked three field goals, and lost 15-9.

2013: Josh Dobbs at #9 Missouri

  • 26 of 42 (61.9%) for 240 yards (5.7 ypa), zero TD, 2 INT

Dobbs also ran the ball seven times for 45 yards, but Tennessee never threatened in a 31-3 loss to a Missouri program we were probably still learning to take seriously. He was also forced into action due to injury.

2013: Nathan Peterman at #19 Florida

  • 4-of-11 (36.3%) for 5 yards (0.5 ypa), zero TD, 2 INT

No need to beat a dead horse here.

2011: Justin Worley vs #13 South Carolina

  • 10-of-26 (38.5%) for 105 yards (4.0 ypa), zero TD, 2 INT

The Vols turned a muffed South Carolina punt into a 3-0 early lead, then didn’t score again. Tennessee was turned away on 4th-and-1 at the South Carolina 44 late in the first half, then had 1st-and-Goal at the Carolina 2 after an interception by Prentiss Waggner. Worley threw an interception two plays later, and Carolina responded with an infamous 20-play drive for an insurmountable 14-3 lead.

2010: Tyler Bray at Memphis

  • 19-of-33 (57.6%) for 333 yards (9.8 ypa), 5 TD, 0 INT

Pro tip: it helps to play 2010 Memphis in your first career start!

2008: Nick Stephens at #10 Georgia

  • 13-of-30 (43.3%) for 208 yards (6.9 ypa), 2 TD, 0 INT

Though no one would master the Clawfense, this wasn’t bad, really. Georgia easily took away the run (15 carries, 1 yard) but Stephens kept Tennessee around all day.

2006: Jonathan Crompton at #11 Arkansas

  • 16-of-34 (47.1%) for 174 yards (5.1 ypa), 2 TD, 1 INT

Crompton’s first glimpse is remembered fondly when he replaced a gimpy Erik Ainge the week before against LSU, then almost led the Vols to victory on the strength of throwing deep to Robert Meachem. The next week at Arkansas he was far less successful; Ainge returned from injury to guide the Vols to the Outback Bowl.

The combined stat line in the first-time starts from Guarantano, Dobbs, Peterman, and Worley (three of them coming against Top 20 teams): 51-of-97 (52.6%) for 483 yards (4.98 ypa), zero touchdowns, six interceptions. And it’s not just passing touchdowns: JG, Dobbs, Peterman, and Worley failed to lead a single offensive touchdown drive in those four games.

If it’s Maurer, we should take the same long view for the program and place it on his shoulders. Anything he does well would be progress compared to his contemporaries. And if it’s nothing but struggle? He might still grow into anything from Worley’s respectable performances under Butch Jones or Peterman’s under Chaney at Pitt. And hey, that Dobbs kid did pretty well the next time he was a mid-season replacement starter.

You absolutely never know. But for a mid-season replacement against a ranked team, we are unfortunately good at guessing. As with everything else Tennessee right now, there’s definitely the opportunity to surprise. Maybe he will. If Maurer does, delightful. If he doesn’t, the better data point will come next week.

The Gameday on Rocky Top Guessing Game: 2019 Week 6

It’s Friday before Gameday, and that means it’s time for the Gameday on Rocky Top Guessing Game. If you’ve played before, you know the deal, and you can skip to the questions below. If not, catch up here.

Let’sa go!

  1. Submit your answers to our three questions below.
  2. Click the “Submit” button.
  3. Copy and paste your answers in the comments below.

Good luck!

Georgia Game a Chance for Vols to Get a Recruiting Boost

The Georgia game was always the first home game that the Tennessee staff was targeting as a big recruiting weekend, but unfortunately it’s not as big of a game associated with the Vols were expecting or hoping for thanks to the disastrous start to the season.  At 1-3 Tennessee is over a 3-touchdown underdog to the Dawgs and has slipped with many of its elite-level targets.  The staff spent the off week broadening its board, and added a few more offers over the weekend in OT Alex Harrison and DL Tui Tuipulotu, two West Coast kids with multiple high level Pac-12 offers.  The Vols also checked back in with dynamic ATH Jimmy Holiday, a TCU commitment from Mississippi who got a Tennessee offer over the summer. Importantly, Tennessee went all-in for the Whitehaven Three of Linebackers Martavius French (an Arkansas commitment), Tammarion McDonald (a Mississippi State commitment) and longtime Vol target Bryson Eason

Despite the rough start, Tennessee will still be hosting a nice group of prospects in Knoxville over the weekend.  Notably, the three Whitehaven LBs will be taking their official visits, the timing of which is certainly interesting from Tennessee’s perspective.  Neither Arkansas nor Mississippi State can feel very comfortable with the state of their respective commitments at this point, nor can the Hawg staff like where this seems to be heading with Eason either.  All three were on campus together over the summer for a 7on7 event but this will be each of their first times seeing a game.  Expect the Vols to make a huge impression on all three, and even if none of them are on commitment watch this weekend it could be a matter of time.  And with the state of Tennessee’s LB corps – lacking in bodies though full of young talent between Henry To’oto’to, JJ Peterson, Jeremy Banks, and Aaron Beasley –adding these three would absolutely upgrade the position starting immediately in 2020. 

Bigtime DL target Omari Thomas also plans to join his fellow Memphians in tripping to Knoxville, though his will be a visit of the unofficial variety.  This will allow the Vols to have an OV in its back pocket in December when the early signing period gets closer, which is a big deal.  Thomas is reportedly close with the Whitehaven kids, particularly Eason, which makes them all being on campus together and even bigger deal.  Thomas would be an absolutely massive get at a position of annual need, and Tennessee currently sits in a good spot for him.  A successful weekend would go a long way toward locking him down.

Speaking of large DL, Alabama (soft) commitment Jayson Jones will be traveling to Knoxville for an unofficial visit after Vol TE Coach Brian Niedermeyer visited his school during the bye week.  Jones is a massive human being – think freshman Vol DL Elijah Simmons but 6’6 instead of 6’0 – and is incredibly talented.  The Vols will look to make a strong impression that convinces Jones to set up an return, official visit later in the fall.

The only other official visitor as of this writing will be Midstate native OLB Reggie Grimes.  It’s been since January that Grimes has been to Knoxville, and right now South Carolina holds the lead for him with Alabama lurking.  A Tide legacy, it’s well-known that were Alabama to give him the green light he’d commit there.  But if they don’t, this is a Vols-Gamecocks battle.  Interestingly, Tennessee’s staff has been wishy-washy when it comes to this recruitment, and though he’s a borderline 5-star ranked player based on his elite measurables he hasn’t exactly wowed people with his onfield performance.  That said, he’s got the kind of size and speed combination that the Vols simply don’t have enough of across the roster, so the possibility of Pruitt and Ansley molding that very talented clay is very appealing.

Although it hasn’t been confirmed, one can assume that the Vol staff is trying very hard to get as many of the Tennessee commitments to Knoxville for the game.  For one, it should be a great atmosphere and with it being a night game the entire day should be a great reminder of what is so special about Tennessee football.  So to the extent that any of them are feeling the slightest bit hesitant about their commitments being back on campus will be a good thing.  In addition, having Vol commitments do some peer recruiting with the uncommitted prospects on campus is always helpful. 

It’s likely that more names will end up on the visitor list.  Speculating at this point, but with the strong contingent of Memphians coming to town and with his OV to Texas A&M scheduled for the following weekend (although 3 are likely flying in for their OV), the Vols would love to get OL Chris Morris in for the game.   Pruitt stopped by his game last Friday night after attending the Whitehaven game, so it’s entirely possible that there could be a little momentum here for a prospect who’s been assumed to be an Aggie lean since the summer.  DL Jay Hardy has been at each of Tennessee’s home games so far this season and is as strong of a Vol lean as there is on Tennessee’s board – getting him here again for a big game will be important, especially since he could be close to making a decision in light of his injury suffered last Friday night.  LB/RB Len’neth Whitehead is fresh of his OV to South Carolina, which came off the heels of an UV he took to Columbia two weeks prior, and the Gamecocks have made a move there.  The Vols would love to get the Athens native back in town to see what presumably will be a much better atmosphere than he saw on his OV for the Georgia State game and in turn try to turn that recruitment back in its favor.  Finally, WR Arik Gilbert, for whom the Vols appear to have faded a bit thanks to the poor onfield performance so far this season, is probably a longshot to come.  But given that both of his presumed current leaders – Alabama and Clemson – are off this week and his two other finalists are playing in Knoxville, along with the fact that (hopefully) his two committed teammates will be driving up, perhaps Tennessee can convince him to visit.

Two other OVs to watch this weekend are bigtime Vol target OLB Tyler Baron visiting Ohio State – the Vols main competitor – and new OL target Harrison visiting Nebraska. 

It goes without saying that a strong showing on the field – just being competitive let alone winning – will go a long way towards showing recruits that Pruitt has this thing headed in the right direction.  For those that are in attendance it will be even more important, especially when it comes to the atmosphere and showing them that Vol fans stick with their team no matter what and don’t let opposing fans take over Neyland Stadium.  All of that remains to be seen, of course.  But while this won’t necessarily be the star-studded visitor list that the Tennessee staff probably envisioned before the season started – one can imagine them trying to get guys like LB Noah Sewell and OLB Sa’vell Smalls and the like to see what a gameday experience in Knoxville is all about – there will still be a strong group of players in attendance.  Making a move with all of them will go a long way towards securing Pruitt’s second straight recruiting class that significantly improves the roster for 2020 and beyond. n

Gameday on Rocky Top Podcast – Episode 157 – Perception-y stuff and the Georgia Bulldogs

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Joel:
This is the Gameday on Rocky Top podcast, episode 157. Joel Hollingsworth and as always, I am joined by Will Shelton. The Vols are coming off a bye week this week and Saturday night. They are hosting number three, Georgia in Eli Stadium. I think that's at 7:00 on ESPN, if I remember correctly last.

Will:
This.

Joel:
Good, good. Last year, the Georgia game, if I remember right, was actually sort of the first glimpse of some degree of hope. It was the one where after the game, Jeremy Pruitt got all choked up because it was the first time he'd seen fight out of his guys. And we're kind of hoping for something similar this season. Hope has been hard to find in 20, 19 so far. So we're hoping to see sort of the first glimpse of glimpse of something that will make us believe that the whole thing isn't just going down the toilet. But here's the thing. They can have. They could have had the best bye week ever. They could actually be improved. They could actually be better. And they might still look worse just because they're playing the number three team in the country. So I know we just played number nine, Florida, but I think there is a world of difference between number nine, Florida. Number three, Georgia. So let me start there, Will. Do you agree with that statement? How much? If so, how much better do you think the Georgia Bulldogs are than the Florida Gators this year?

Will:
I do agree with that statements. So I think. Notre Dame is an interesting piece of this puzzle. How good do we think Notre Dame is? I think pretty good. I think Notre Dame was weird spot last week coming off of loss in Athens. It was really important to him. And playing a feisty Virginia bunch that hit some plays in the first half, did some good things at Notre Dame, still just took care of business in the second half and really turned him away. So I think that's the mark of a good program. Brian Kelly's had a role in there for a long time now, so I think Notre Dame's pretty, pretty solid. So I think that means Georgia is even more solid and the best information we have on the Gators. Is Miami and Tennessee teams that don't particularly look great. And a Kentucky team that looks worse each week. Some of that is a quarterback issue there, too. But so listen. By kickoff, we can answer that question much better because you're going to get Florida against the team that has the best resume of anyone in the country right now at three thirty. So Auburn will tell us quite a bit that does create a bad scenario for Tennessee if Auburn steamrolled the Gators and then Georgia steam rolls us. That's not a fun Saturday. And the other the other half of that really to go back and say, yes, I agree with all this. Tennessee could be better. Tennessee could do a lot of things and Tennessee could lose to Georgia. Tennessee could not be within 12 points of Georgia in the fourth quarter like they were last year in Athens. The real kicker here now to me is how bad Mississippi State looked last week, because now a game that I don't think any one has in the old expected win total machine that anybody said that about 50 percent since Tennessee lost at Georgia State. I mean, the assumption was Mississippi State was really good, or at least above average. And I mean, they just Auburn decimated them in the first half of that game and coasted. I thought from there. So now.

Joel:
Yeah, they scored like, what, twenty three points or something. But those were those were not real points. I don't think.

Will:
I mean, Auburn was at thirty five in a heartbeat in that game. So now the thing I said, I think a couple of weeks ago or maybe even last week on this podcast was, hey, it's important that Tennessee competes with Mississippi State. Not not so far as to say that that's a must win for anything other than like bowl hopes. But you lose this Mississippi state team by like 10 or 14 in Neil and Stadium, who looks a lot worse now than it did this time last week. So,

Joel:
Mm mm mm mm.

Will:
Yeah, lots of lots of perception, a stuff. That's Tennessee. Tennessee could be better and still look bad this week. And I think Tennessee could even beat Mississippi State at this point and still not necessarily be a whole lot better. So, yeah, I think a lot of this and I know we're going to talk about the quarterback situation. A lot of the perception on Tennessee I think is going to hinge on how much of that plan. Brian Mauer, because if you're if you're making a full switch here, there's no such thing as resetting the clock in a year when you lost the Georgia state in the season opener. But you can you can you can change the narrative a little bit here, too. Now, we can at least find out if this guy is going gonna be a live option for Tennessee going forward here in the future. So I don't I don't know how much you're going to see him or if he's going to start to play the whole time or whatever. But, you know, lots of lots of narrative stuff on the line here and a game where no matter which narrative you pick, it's likely that Georgia is going to take care of business.

Joel:
Yeah, we'll get to the quarterback a little bit more here in a minute, but first I want to say that I'm really interested to see what the robo transcriber thinks of the word perception. I might actually call the podcast the perception, the podcast, because I like that word. So.

Will:
There's love. That's one of my favorite things to do each week is go back and read with the robo transcriber, thinks of all kinds of things. There was a good I've forgotten what it was and I don't have access to my tablet right at the second to look it up while we're talking here. But there is a good phrase.

Joel:
Something about a women rush or something, a five woman rush.

Will:
Well, it was a fright, Noto is a phrase a couple of weeks ago that we kept using or I think I kept using over and over and a Kivon Bennett can't translate. It is something different every time. But I don't remember. So sorry. I promise it was funny.

Joel:
All right.

Will:
Read the transcript for entertainment and not for this. That's for pleasure and not for business.

Joel:
Yeah, I used to go through and corrected all of it. You know?

Will:
Oh, it's way more fun this way.

Joel:
Yes, it is. And it takes a lot less time, sir.

Will:
It's right.

Joel:
All right. So before we got on, you had mentioned that you were monitoring Twitter because you you still you still look at Twitter. And I avoided like a plague. So I don't I don't I didn't see this. But something about former coming out and saying, no, no, no, I'm not going to. I'm not going to coach. And that comes, of course, from something we mentioned as nonsense. I think in the last episode, which was from Pete family at Yahoo! And then I think it came up again this week because there was an article by some writer at ESPN with a list of hot seat coaches and Jeremy Pruitt was first on the list, which again, is ridiculous. And the thing is, they're saying that all of this is just an opportunity for Fulmer to get back on the sideline, which is what he's really wanting to do. His whole goal, like he's this devious schemer and it's been his whole plan for 10 years and he's now just executed it. So anyway, you know, the thing is, those those articles quote these sources, you know, but I am pretty sure that the guy from ESPN as source was Pete family and and vice versa. So I think what you and I should do right now on record and the podcast is we should. I'm going to tell you that Pete family was that ESPN guy's source. So now you can go write an article quoting a source that Pete Bama was that guy's source. So that's the plan. Does.

Will:
Yeah. Say something about those hot seat rankings before we get to the former thing. I guess there may not be any more disappointed fan base. Well, disappointment is relative. I think the line between how we thought things were going to go and how things have actually gone here, I think Tennessee is at or near the top of that list. These are not the conversations we thought we were going to have about record and about quarterback, which is the position that most impacts your record. So, sure,

Joel:
Here

Will:
Tennessee is there,

Joel:
You

Will:
But just

Joel:
Can I just

Will:
Got.

Joel:
Time out just on that. So hold that thought in book market. But we always think that because we're that's what we're paying the most attention to. But Michigan fans got to feel terrible. Nebraska fans maybe, you know, there's a whole lotta heartache and misery out there on the landscape, too. Although I do think we we win that race right now.

Will:
Yeah, I think the difference in perception this he still has a chance to win the disappointments component. That's got to be Michigan, right? That because that's a team you're thinking about. Can we make the college football playoff

Joel:
Yep,

Will:
This year?

Joel:
Yep.

Will:
Urban's out. Can we beat Ohio State? And not only is the answer, no, but wow, Wisconsin emphatically no. That was my favorite line that someone had on Twitter. And I'm sorry, I said it's a lot on the podcast that I can't hear on the fly. It was on Twitter. So kudos to whoever it was on Twitter when Wisconsin, where they alternate unis the following week with the brown pants that someone in Wisconsin so thoroughly dominated Michigan that now they're allowed to wear khakis when they play their game. I feel that those tremendous whoever that was. Kudos to that person. So. Yeah, most disappointed would be a team like Michigan that had a college football playoff aspirations, national championship aspirations fairly legitimately and now has them no longer and might think about, you know, what is the future with this coach perception versus reality. Tennessee's in that conversation of how we thought this would go. But all that to say, it's ridiculous to have Pruitt number one on your hot seat rankings simply because he's only been here for 16 games. I can assure you, living in southwest Virginia that Justin Fenty has a hotter seat than Jeremy Pruitt right now simply because this is year four for one day and he's not supposed to be getting blown out by Duke at home. So, yeah, that's you can say that Tennessee's perception versus reality is worse than Virginia Tech's think Virginia Tech did and wasn't sure what they had, but they were hoping it was this. Whereas Tennessee, we thought we were making progress. And turns out not not yet. But just by the nature of him being the head coach for only 16 games, it's unrealistic to say he's on the hottest seat in America.

Will:
That's just absurd. He might next year, but not right now. So on the former stuff, he's on board calls earlier tonight. We're taking this on Wednesday night, vocals just went off the air. It's where the best Tennessee information gets passed around. Former would know that his vocals is a very former, very Tennessee way to say this. He came on and did the typical A.D. support of embattled head coach with some specific points about former saying before Pruitt got here, we didn't know how to practice and that we didn't have any 300 pound guys. And now we know how to practice. Now we have 300 pound guys, little passive aggressive shot there. Butch Jones, which I think is fine and former included saying that the coaching portion of his career, the coaching chapter of his career is closed. So I think that's I think that's fine. I think that's obvious. Sometimes we we tell ourselves stories long enough that, you know, we believe they can come true. I think for for that narrative of, well, former wants to show everyone that they were wrong. Isn't that point already made? I just I just feel like. And look, I'm I'm still young enough to have a lengthy argument with anyone that wants to have this argument for people that will say, well, we absolutely still should have fired former. We just made the wrong choices from their. A little fast and loose with the word absolutely there. I think we should not talk about things being such a sure thing or absolutely the right decision, given the length and breadth and width and height of our disaster here in the last eleven years and trying to get it fixed.

Will:
So I listen. I wrote at the time, I thought the guy should have said, you know what, 2009 will be my last season. I was a former forever back then or anything like that. I do think some of the historic advance stats, stuff like SB Plus, if you turn the page back, look a little more fondly on 2006 and 2007 than we did at the time. And I think that, you know, that inability in 2008 to stop that snowball from rolling down the hill couldn't get a win to stop the bleeding the way it did in 0 7. Over and over again. Oh, it certainly hurt. But I think the point is made. I don't think former needs to come back and win some games here for us to say, hey, things were better when you were our head coach. That's a lot of the hope now, right? Things will be better because he's the athletic director. So I think that former is doubling down on Pruitt being his guy and that and outright saying he is not ever coming back to coach again. So I think that should help close an unnecessarily open door. And again, the very best things for Tennessee would be Jeremy Pruitt figuring this out and learning on the job and going from there. And the former knows that, too. So hopefully that's that's what continues to happen.

Joel:
Yeah, it's it's kind of interesting that two, five and seven seasons in four years was enough to do him in, and we traded that for pretty much nothing. But if in seven seasons for many years in a row. Anyway, back to this year. Jarrett Guarantano. He got pulled against Florida. Then he got put back in. So for two weeks, we've had this question about who's going to play quarterback against Georgia. Most everybody just thought, well, you know, it's gonna be Garrett Johnson. Now that we we pulled him and got, you know, got his attention, which is what we needed to do and all the stuff. But apparently there is some growing chatter that it might actually be Mauer. My source on that is Will again paying attention to Twitter. When I was somewhere else. So what is where is that chatter coming from? Well, and what are your thoughts on it?

Will:
Well, that and let me say that is not Twitter. That's that's some stuff that vol quests.

Joel:
Oh,

Will:
Just something

Joel:
Okay.

Will:
To good point on Vault Quest earlier today to say and Vault Quest is great. I'm a subscriber. You should be a subscriber to all that good stuff. But at one point he was making is to say, look, we don't want to the media doesn't get to see much of practice. So you want to take any practice observations with a grain of salt, but observing practice today. So things seem to be trending a little more in Bowers direction in terms of division of repetitions. And some of that may just be a package. Are they going to put in a package for him? That is a little more athletic oriented than what Garen Tanto has. So I don't know. I think, again, from from the narrative of the season and all that stuff, you can't hit the reset button at this point if you're Pruitt on this year, but you can't at least just reignite some interest and some curiosity. Even if he looks bad against Georgia, anybody might look bad. Quarterbacking this team against Georgia right now. So really, if we're talking about now are the questions for me is how do you look next week? How would you look against South Carolina? Tennessee needs wins. I just don't think you can say if you're still trying to get the six wins. If you're trying to make this season matter, if you're trying to spark something that could carry forward into the future, you need to beat Mississippi State.

Will:
So, you know, I think it's it's there's it's an even more lost cause if you subscribe to that school of thought of let's hold him out until South Carolina so he doesn't have to play Alabama. And I just don't know. I don't think anybody knows what to think of Garen Snow at this point. I mean, there's sort of some of this, too, is message boards stuff. But just the growing kind of assumption here that. It just doesn't seem like him coming back to Tennessee next year is in anybody's best interests at this point. This sense that he could graduate and transfer and go somewhere else. It's shocking to me that we're talking about that here in the first week of October. But, you know, the idea that guaranteed it would be the starting quarterback at Tennessee next year, which he technically has the eligibility to do. That seems far away from anybody's radar right now. So we've talked to plenty on his podcast about Crompton and about other turnarounds in the past. And I would love to see that from him. But we don't see a lot of signs pointing in that direction right now.

Joel:
I'm still holding hope that that's what's going to happen. By might be the only one, but that's kind of what I want to see. Did did you see it? There was a paywall thing at 2 4 7 with West Rucker interviewing the Georgia 2 4 7 guy, I guess. Did you see that piece?

Will:
I'd say that.

Joel:
Ok. So it was really interesting. Kind of funny, too, by the way. If you have access to sugary that one. But one of the things that really jumped out at me was he asked a question, you know, what do you do to try to try to beat Georgia? I know every team has some vulnerabilities. What's the thing? And he goes, well, I don't know, you know. It seems like when we struggle, it's against mobile quarterbacks. No team ever says, I'm really glad to play a team whose quarterback can run. Right. And I don't know really know whether that's true or not. But the Georgia beat guy 4 2 4 7 thinks that. So that might be one reason why they might want to go with Mauer, Maurer, Mauer, Mauer,

Will:
Mauer is what I

Joel:
Mauer.

Will:
Keep saying that does that just get right? But I think that's Brian Mauer.

Joel:
He'll tell us three years from now if we're mispronouncing

Will:
That's right.

Joel:
It.

Will:
That was not worth more wins, as it

Joel:
It

Will:
Turns out.

Joel:
Was not so in the other thing I think about this. You know, it's like Josh Ward's podcast, which as long as we're plugging it, that last week we plugged the athletic. You really need to subscribe to that. Will says you need to subscribe to vol quest. I'm telling you right now, you need to listen to Josh Palmer podcast every day. It's great stuff. Although he did say something this week that he was kind of rough on on Pruitt basically refusing to name quarterbacks, saying we're not going to give Georgia scouting report. And his point was, well, that's going to help. Right. But the thing is, Prue is trying to win. You know what? Even if you aren't going to win, you still want the guy to try to win. Right. And I get this theory about Pruitt that he doesn't know how to play, not to win. He doesn't know how to play like an underdog. He just doesn't have that that mindset. And I think that's why maybe you see these huge score disparities like like we haven't seen part of that is because we're bad. OK, I'll concede that. All right. But I think part of it is also is that he doesn't, you know, say, OK, well, how can I keep this close into the fourth quarter so we can maybe sneak out a win? I don't think he thinks like that. And so, you know, if he thinks a mobile quarterback is where Georgia might be weak and, you know, he's got Georgia Intel, right? He knows Georgia.

Will:
Oh. Yeah.

Joel:
Yeah. So if he thinks that that might be a way to score an extra touchdown or something and maybe actually make a game of it, that might be what he's trying to do. So that's my theory. I'm a stick to it and I'm going to delete the podcast if it turns out to be wrong.

Will:
I

Joel:
So.

Will:
Think, you know, if we're a year from now having this conversation about Jeremy Pruitt or having a conversation about who's Tennessee needs a new coach, who's that coach going to be, and we do the thing that we always do, which is we pendulum swing to the other side. That Pendleton swing next time will be. We need someone that knows how to grow a program, knows how to take a losing thing and make it a winning thing. If that happens, you could talk a lot about Will Healy. That's at Charlotte right now. That was it. S&P, which, by the way, that Tennessee's opening opponent next season. Woods It's not one you want to lose if you're Jeremy Pruitt because folks will be talking about that guy for a while. But anyway, something like that somewhere we're talking about. We need someone that's been in the SCC and understands the expectations the way Butch Jones didn't knows what it's like to develop five star talent. All that stuff. Yeah. I think the Florida game last year is proof of that proof. And he said outright that the reason they lost by 26 and not 19 is because he played a goal on defense there to try to create a stop that Florida just went to the outside and scored a late touchdown. So, yeah, I mean, I think I think there's some truth in that, that he doesn't know how to win as an underdog. Yeah. And I'm trying to think of games. I think he's conservative. Defensive nature can play into that a little bit in terms of getting a lead and then milking the clock and hanging onto it and that sort of stuff. It's a big fan of the onside kick last year. Also, if it doesn't work, is is a very risk reward situation. So, yeah, you could be onto something there. I will say two were terrific quarterbacks and I've been thinking about do you know what I think the phrase in the podcast I was trying to think of that the translator has so much fun with. You know what I think it is?

Joel:
What's it?

Will:
I think it's Jarrett Guarantano SEC.

Joel:
Ok.

Will:
So it just goes to show like how much we're just kind of writing off. Or at least I am just kind of writing off this guy who has just been the quarterback here at a not fun time to be at Tennessee. And, you know, if he doesn't have transferring or going somewhere else. Man, I hope he does awesome and does great because this is this is not going the way anybody thought it would.

Joel:
No. So in search of maybe just a little bit of hope. I was hoping that maybe you could help us remember 2009. So my feeble old memory is that. Even as late as the Georgia game, we were still sort of reeling from some disappointment and the fact that we thought we had a quarterback who couldn't throw a couldn't complete the screen pass, right. And we were heading into the Georgia game, basically not hoping for anything positive to happen. And we got something totally unexpected. So I was wondering, can you and your vault of a mind sort of remind us of that story? Did I get part of it wrong or how did it all go down?

Will:
No. We touched on this a little bit the last time that Crompton. I think similar to what we're seeing with Garen, no now folks who are out on Crompton going into 2009 because he had struggled along with Nick Stevens and B.J. Coleman struggled so much with the claw offense in 2008. There was just the assumption that he could not get it done. And then when Tennessee couldn't beat UCLA in a game, everyone said was important. On the way in. You know, I knew it from miles away how important it was to win that game. And your defense played lights out. But Cincy could not just couldn't do it and turned the ball over and all that stuff. I think everybody we were waiting for Nick Stevens. He lost to Florida. You were ugly. Kind of in a win over Ohio. You lost to Auburn by 4. But Kiffin was steadfast. Never. Never. Nick Stevens never sniffed an opportunity. And then that Georgia game. Yeah. I mean, this sort of story on that now is that they just took half the field away from crops and and said, all right, you're going to do with this. We're simplifying everything you're gonna do with this half of the field. And Tennessee also had an excellent defense and they had Montreal Hardesty, but the first half in particular of that game. I just remember saying it and writing it at at Rocky Top.

Will:
Talk that at halftime his stat line was like the Ark of the Covenant. That's like, just don't look at it because it was so unbelievable that it would just melt your face off. And, you know, he stayed hot the rest of the game. Tennessee wins that game. Forty five to 19. And then he simultaneously had the ability the next time at Alabama to not get them beat. That's that's a game where you could tell right away. Even though Alabama's rank number one or two or whatever they were, the Tennessee's defense was going to keep them around. And it did. And Crompton, they wanted him to do the mistake free stuff. And he did. And then he hit the one big throw, I think, to Luke Stocker. Right. Right before that infamous field goal that was blocked hit one big throw to put him into a field goal range. That didn't work out, obviously. And then, you know, bounced right around and beat South Carolina right after that heat. And after that, you know, they give up a ton of points to Ole Miss. It's not really Compton's fault. They play a good overtime game against Kentucky where they get the win and that game, and then they run into an extremely underrated Virginia Tech team. The chick's label and they lose. And then twelve hours later is when we get four Tennessee basketball players arrested for guns and drugs in a car.

Will:
And so that story kind of goes away. And then Kiffin leaves, you know, nine days after that. So there was there was a tumultuous, tumultuous time at Tennessee. But, yeah, again, I think we're talking about I mean, truly one of the most surprising things that I have ever seen. But the other one to me that I think is more than just that Crompton game is probably the most surprising individual performance that I've ever seen. So I don't know that we want to hold that up and say maybe that will happen again. But I would go back to Dobbs. If you think about Dobbs in 2014 against Alabama and Knoxville, where Worley has been knocked out for the year again. You've got Peterman who starts that game, plays a couple of series, doesn't do anything. Alabama scores touchdowns with Kiffin as the offensive coordinator. Bama scores touchdowns in our first four possessions. We're down twenty seven and nothing at the end of the first quarter. And you're thinking I was at that game and I'm thinking, you know, these guys could score 100 if they want to. And that's that's just the reality of the situation. And then Dobbs just all of the sudden was a revelation. And Tennessee ends up only losing against the Jeremy Pruitt defense only loses thirty four to twenty.

Joel:
Running quarterback.

Will:
Yeah. And and, you know, just very, very solid all the way through. I mean, just just really surprising the way that Tennessee handled that that entire thing. And one thing you remember, too. DOBBS Other than Peterman, no one has ever looked worse than Dobbs when he played against Vanderbilt the last game of his freshman year when Tennessee had to have it to get bowl eligible. Dobbs is awful. I mean, it made me think this guy will never be the answer at at Tennessee and the last game of that 2013 season. Turns out that was wrong, too. He was a freshman. So you don't know. It's just with guaranteed snow in this, I guess, is where it was more similar to Crompton. We just have so much data already and there hasn't been it's been regression instead of progression. So, you know, I don't know if that shows up Saturday. I'd be wonderful, but I'm I just don't. I don't have warm fuzzy is about it showing up against Georgia and I don't have a lot of warm fuzzy about it showing up against Mississippi State either.

Joel:
Olmert added that last part out because that isn't where I was going. Yeah. So 2014, Alabama, that that was in the midst of, you know, Saban's Alabama writes or really good team. They didn't win the national championship that year. I don't think at least if I got this right in the magazine.

Will:
That's

Joel:
Oh,

Will:
Ohio State.

Joel:
I'll state.

Will:
I think.

Joel:
Yes. Good job. But how good was was Georgia in 2009? I mean, they're there number three this year. Well, what? You know, because you said it was a huge surprise. We weren't very good. I'm assuming we weren't ranked at the time. But how good was Georgia in 2009? Why was it such a surprise?

Will:
So Georgia, let's see, Georgia would have been. Georgia was never one of the country pre-season in 0 8. They were the black jerseys and got killed by Alabama that year and then in nine. I'm going to say I have my tablet in front of it to look this up and be sure. I think in nine they lost to South Carolina early and that's caused some snow and that sort of stuff. So, no, I wasn't. It was not a top 10 Georgia team or anything like that. In fact, I think the South Carolina Tee Martin beat was ranked higher than them. I think that's the highest ranked team that Kiffin beat was Spurs team. But still, you even then a Georgia team. That's OK. We've lost games. Is Rick still the guy that sort of experience? I think one thing about Tennessee then two is Tennessee smoked Georgia in 2007, the year that Georgia finished number two and Tennessee smoked him in the second half in 2006. So I didn't lie. There's a story on the athletic, I think this week about Georgia. You know, the time this rivalry turned in 2010 when both teams were bad and then Georgia rolled Dooley's team the week after we lost at LSU for putting a thousand men on the field at the end of the game. But this was a one possession game from 2011 through 2016. So the last two duly years, it was a one possession game. And the first Bush year, it was the smoking grey pig Howard fumble game. It was a one possession game in Athens the next year, then Tennessee, one in 15 and 16. So I get under Kirby Smart. Tennessee needed a Hail Mary to win it all and then got waxed in 17 and and pulled away from in the fourth quarter last year. I get that. But I don't buy the notion that, well, this rivalry really turned in 2010. This was just a really competitive rivalry for seven years there. Six years there in the middle.

Joel:
That sounds like it was not up in.

Will:
No, it was the Georgia. Georgia

Joel:
Yeah.

Will:
Ryder.

Joel:
Yeah.

Will:
But.

Joel:
All right. So.

Will:
Yeah, I mean, it would have been typical, again, Tennessee fans of a certain age. If you were like me and you grew up when Tennessee was putting it on Georgia every year in the 90s, there's still a part of us that's like we should beat those guys. But, you know, that is obviously not dealing in reality right now.

Joel:
Yeah, so I don't think this game is going to go well. I know, but the thing is, I'm trying to brace against drawing too many conclusions from it. That's my it's my whole sort of frame of mind going into this game is that even if you total that, you look the worst, you've looked all season long, which is saying something. I don't I don't know that you can really say that it's anything other than having to play Georgia. I mean, things are just not not positioned well for the Vols on Saturday. I don't know if you saw this actually put the head to head stat rankings up this morning. The first time I've done this. And Tennessee is one hundred and 13th on first downs offense and Georgia is seventh in first down defense for on fourth down. We're one hundred and sixteenth in their twenty first and it's only slightly better on third down where was 70 first and their 18th. So we don't have stats for second down, but I'm guessing they're not very good either. So.

Will:
Well, yes, this may take on the flavor of. A significant percentage of the Alabama gains of this decade, where even in in years when Tennessee was interesting and the season was interesting overall and Tennessee was able to get bowl eligibility and things like that. The like two thousand ten two thousand two thousand thirteen Bush's first year, like the times we used to get killed by Alabama, you just we've just kind of looked at the like. All right. Next. Like, I'm not looking at this to pull a lot of detail about it or anything like that. So, yeah, I mean, it may turn into some of this. Some of that this Saturday is to just say, OK, you know, Georgia won by a thirty one. OK. Next, I will say the event's numbers like Tennessee a little better. The spread was games in Knoxville. So it's twenty four and a half, something like that. Now, I know S&P is like 20.

Joel:
Mm hmm.

Will:
So, again, how how do we get there? Is it like last year where Tennessee is within two possessions in the fourth quarter and Georgia attacks on one late and then Tennessee stumbles and Georgia takes on another one? I mean, that's what happened last year. But, you know, some of it depends on how we get there. But, yeah, I can buy the idea that if Tennessee just gets smoked and not in a self-destructive way, but just in and obviously this team is a lot better than us way. Then again, I think we then I think this time next week we're talking about let's see if we can learn anything different against Mississippi State and just carry it forward from there.

Joel:
All right, freestyle time. Anything you want to bring up?

Will:
Now go to the Braves on Friday night, as beforehand, you. Tennessee has taught me you should never use the phrase I'll just go next time because you the note near next times are not guaranteed. So if I die this weekend is because my Cardinals superfan in laws have murdered me at SunTrust Park when the Braves something good and I try to celebrate it. So celebrate your sports teams. We've been saying for years going back to the console, Martin Day, you don't don't miss opportunities to celebrate. So for the percentage of fans listening to this who are also Braves fans, much to celebrate this year so far and hopefully much beyond this weekend and again for Tennessee, unless two quarterbacks get hurt or, you know, something really unusual happens, which, hey, I mean, we're no stranger to really unusual. Next, we gonna be a gonna be an important week. I mean, it's a big week next week for four narratives and all that stuff where I think we can't actually say something about the outcome as opposed to this week. So I feel like you can't. No one's playing with house money when you're 1 3. But in terms of Pruitt and quarterbacks and all that stuff, we're going to get a good data point against Mississippi State. It looks like. So we'll we'll see what happens.

Joel:
So I think there are a lot of people listening that actually do keep up with the Braves. But for those of us who don't, what is the nutshell? What are they doing?

Will:
The Braves. They're they're awesome. So this is the first round of the playoffs. The Braves and the Cardinals. Game 1 is tomorrow night. Game 2 is Friday night in Atlanta. Unlike last year when the Braves play the Dodgers in the first round and the game spirit like eight thirty five. And people with children are asleep by the third inning. This is this is actually the Braves play at five o'clock tomorrow and 430 on Friday. It's good for adults, but they're just fun. You know, anybody that's watched this team all year, they have some bullpen adventures, but they're running Laconia Junior and Ozzie Albee's. And a lot of these guys are fun and young. And Atlanta has not won a postseason series since 2001. So high time to get that turned back around. So, yeah, I just just, you know, enjoy celebrate that. It's worth celebrating and don't miss opportunities to do so. And I hope that happens for one of my sports teams this weekend.

Joel:
And basketball is coming into the month,

Will:
Yes,

Joel:
So.

Will:
It's coming as fast as it can. It

Joel:
Hold

Will:
Will get here.

Joel:
On, I'm coming. Yeah.

Will:
Yeah, it's. It's going to get here. The will w had a poll on Twitter earlier tonight about. Tennessee plays an exhibition basketball game on October 30th. Who will win next? The football team or the basketball team on October 30th? So if you're taking it, you're taking basketball. That means you think Tennessee is going to lose to both Mississippi State and South Carolina, which could happen. So we could we could have a basketball victory before we have a football victory, in which case we can talk about basketball a lot on this podcast and risk the rest of this season. But yeah, there's there's not much that basketball schedule is loaded. And so some of those basketball conversations may be about, oh, my gosh, where four and 2 is Rick Barnes, should he be fired or whatever, because not having granted ADM and those guys did not keep Barnes from scheduling. We play Washington in Toronto. That is the dumbest thing I have ever heard is Tennessee and Washington getting together. Like, what is the farthest point from both of those schools in it, not just in the United States, but in North America? Is it Toronto? Let's play there. All right. So that's that's all coming up. You could get a shot at Purdue in it over Thanksgiving for a little revenge. Penny Hardaway and Memphis Penny Hardaway had an interview today with the athletic. Ray said Memphis is going to win the national championship this year. He was put out of that and I'd in the second round last year. They're going to win it all this year like basketball. Gonna be fun. Gonna be awesome. Coming as fast as it can.

Joel:
You know, I've heard that Phillip Fulmer is actually working behind the scenes to submarine Rick Barnes so he can get on the sidelines of the basketball court.

Will:
Right. I don't think if I don't know if he specified football coaching career is

Joel:
He

Will:
Not

Joel:
Left

Will:
At all.

Joel:
That door open.

Will:
Tune in next week at Calhoun's on the river and we'll see what happens.

Joel:
All right. That will put a wrap on this episode of the Gameday on Rocky Top podcast. Thanks for tuning in. Make sure you subscribe, give us a rating, give us a review, bonus points and you get a single face for the bonus paint bonus bonus points.

Will:
Jarrett Guarantano.

Joel:
Jerry.

Will:
Yeah.

Joel:
So you just want to see the see

Will:
Yeah.

Joel:
The robot transcriber. Mess it

Will:
The.

Joel:
Up again. All right. Jerry again. Garen Tanto Jarrett Guarantano. Jerry Garen Tanto. See if it gets it wrong. Three similar ways all in a row. So for Will Shelton, I'm Joel Hollingsworth and this has been the Gameday on Rocky Top podcast. Yee ha.

Will:
I legitimately feel bad about that, saying I can't think of what the phrase is. I was the starting quarterback at.

Joel:
Well.

Will:
There are some good ones in there.

Joel:
Jeff, good trip.

Will:
Yeah. I ran through the airport, which I've never done before. So

Joel:
Nice. Yeah.

Will:
I ran I ran past those rocking chairs and Charlotte and thought there's a rocking chairs joke told me

Joel:
Yeah,

Will:
About.

Joel:
Yeah. I didn't get a chance to use them.

Will:
They I'd looked to the people eating chicks, lay in them with disdain and scorn.

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What the SPM comps say about Tennessee-Georgia

The SPM went 24-27 (47.06%) in Week 5 on all games, excluding those involving FCS teams and those for which there were insufficient comps. It broke even at 50% both above the pre-chosen confidence level and within the pre-chosen confidence range.

For the season, it’s 106-123 (46.29%) overall, 54-54 (50%) above the confidence level, and 28-18 (60.87%) within the confidence range. It’s not doing as well as I’d like, but it is behaving quite consistently. I’m hoping for gradual improvement as the relevant data grows. This week, we incorporated a tweak to account for those situations where the comps were available but weren’t very close.

Because the Vols didn’t play last week, I didn’t mention this, so I’ll mention it now. The SPM muffed on the Tennessee-Florida game, saying Florida wouldn’t cover the 14-point spread. It did warn us that it wasn’t very confident about it.

Let’s take a look to see what it says this week about the Georgia Bulldogs.

Vols-Bulldogs

From the perspective of Georgia

Georgia points:

  • Georgia scoring offense for the season: 42.8
  • Tennessee scoring defense for the season: 25.3

The Tennessee scoring defense is most similar to the following prior Georgia opponent(s) (FBS only):

  • Notre Dame 18.5
  • Arkansas State 36

Georgia scored 55 points against Arkansas State and 23 points against Notre Dame. Basically, they’re scoring 1.43% of what those teams usually give up. From this perspective, the SPM estimates that Georgia will score 36.1 points against Tennessee.

Tennessee points:

  • Georgia scoring defense for the season: 10
  • Tennessee scoring offense for the season: 26

The Tennessee scoring offense is most similar to the following prior Georgia opponent(s):

  • Vanderbilt 23
  • Arkansas State 32.8

Georgia held Arkansas State scoreless and allowed Vanderbilt only 6 points. That’s 0.11% of what those teams usually score, so from this perspective, the SPM estimates that Tennessee will manage only 2.9 points against Georgia. Ouch.

Estimated score: Georgia 36.1, Tennessee 2.9

From the perspective of Tennessee

Tennessee points:

  • Tennessee scoring offense for the season: 26
  • Georgia scoring defense for the season: 10

The Georgia scoring defense is most similar to the following prior Tennessee opponent(s) (FBS only):

  • Florida 8.8
  • BYU 31.2

Against BYU, Tennessee scored 26 points. They scored only 3 against Florida, so they’re basically getting about 0.73% of what those teams usually give up. From this perspective, the SPM estimates 7.3 points for the Vols against the Bulldogs.

Georgia points:

  • Tennessee scoring defense for the season: 25.3
  • Georgia scoring offense for the season: 42.8

The Georgia scoring offense is most similar to the following prior Tennessee opponent(s):

  • Florida 34
  • Georgia State 32.5

Tennessee allowed Florida 34 points and Georgia State 38, which means they let those two teams get 1.08% of what they usually get. So, from this perspective, the SPM estimates 46.2 points for Georgia against the Vols.

Estimated score: Tennessee 7.3, Georgia 46.2

SPM Final Estimates

Putting all of that together, here’s what the SPM gets:

SPM Final estimated score: Georgia 41.2, Tennessee 5.1

SPM Final estimated spread: Georgia -36.1

SPM Confidence level: 19.6

The SPM is feeling pretty good about this one. I hate you, SPM.

Eyeball adjustments

I’d say that looks about right for Georgia’s points, but man do I hope Tennessee scores more than 6. This game has been weird, so I’m just going to go with my gut and say that the Vols score at least an extra touchdown. Let’s call it 13 points for the good guys. So, my eyeball-adjusted prediction is Georgia 42, Tennessee 13, a spread of 29. That’s still a prediction that they won’t cover.

Other predictions from other systems

The Vegas line opened with Georgia a 16.5-point favorite and by Sunday night had already moved to Georgia -24.5. As of Wednesday morning, it’s Georgia -25 to -26. The over/under of 51.5-52.5 translates to something like Georgia 38, Tennessee 13.

Bill Connelly’s SP+ likes Georgia, 36-16, and gives the Vols a 12% chance of winning. That’s a spread of -20.7, so it likes Tennessee to cover. SP+ is HOT, HOT, HOT right now, notching 58% for the season, including 64% last week.

ESPN’s FPI gives the Vols an 8.7% chance of winning.

Bottom line

I and the SPM think Tennessee loses this one by 29-36 points and thus fails to cover the spread.

What are y’all thinking?

Tennessee-Georgia: Head-to-head statistical rankings

Putting Tennessee’s national stat rankings side-by-side with the oppositional rankings for Georgia suggests (1) that the Bulldogs’ defense is going to make the Vols’ offense look bad even if they’ve improved, (2) that the Vols might be able to hold on for a while on defense, and (3) that any opportunity to make this a game will probably come courtesy of special teams or the Maxim 1 categories of turnovers and penalties.

Vols on offense

When Tennessee’s offense goes up against Georgia’s defense, the Vols have only one slight advantage, in Tackles for Loss Allowed. Note that even that is offset by Sacks Allowed, where Georgia has a big advantage, so it’s not that the Bulldogs aren’t getting through the line.

Other than that, the Georgia defense has huge advantages all over the board, most notably on 1st downs. And 4th downs. And Total Defense. They also have the advantage on 3rd downs. Second downs aren’t measured. Sigh. The biggest disparity when the Vols have the ball is on first downs, where the Vols rank only 113th, and they’re going up against a defense ranking No. 7.

Bottom line, expect the Vols’ offense to have a long, long day. Even if they have improved since the beginning of the season, Georgia’s defense is going to make it difficult to see. They’re going to look bad even if they’re actually better, so just brace for it.

Vols on defense

It’s a little more even on the other side of the ball, with Tennessee’s defense having slightly better numbers than Georgia’s defense in the passing game and on 1st and 4th downs.

But Georgia still has more and bigger advantages, most notably in tackles for loss, which is the biggest disparity when the Dawgs have the ball. There’s a similar disparity in sacks. The numbers suggest that the Vols defense is not getting at the guy holding or carrying the ball behind the line of scrimmage.

Special teams

Tennessee might have an actual advantage in special teams. The biggest disparity in the entire matchup comes when Tennessee is kicking off, as the Vols rank 1st in the nation in defense (presumably because our kicker is the King of Touchbacks) and the Bulldogs rank 114th in returning kicks.

There’s also an opportunity for Marquez Callaway to maybe make something happen in the punt return game. This, of course, assumes Georgia punts.

Where the numbers favor Georgia on special teams, it’s only slightly.

Turnovers and penalties

Well look at this. The optimist in me perked up at discovering that the Vols rank better than Georgia at nearly every penalty and turnover category. Unfortunately, rivals will point to this to mock Neyland and his First Maxim.