Use the form below to calculate your expected win total for the rest of the season.
The GRT Expected Win Total Machine
My assessment
The Vols appear to have improved despite failing to cover a huge spread against the Bulldogs at home. For that reason, I’m giving them a slight bump.
Meanwhile, Missouri’s looking better, Vanderbilt’s looking worse, and Mississippi State, Alabama, South Carolina, and Kentucky were all resting comfortably.
With this week’s adjustments, I now have an expected win total of . . . 3.85. Continuing to inch up.
- Preseason: 6.55
- After Week 0: 6.6
- After Week 1: 2.87
- After Week 2: 2.37
- After Week 3: 3.65
- After Week 4: 2.9
- After Week 5: 3.25
- After Week 6: 3.85
Details: Alabama remains at 5% and Missouri stays at 25%. South Carolina and Mississippi State both move to 40%, Kentucky and Vanderbilt move to 50%, and UAB moves to 75%.
Here’s a table with my expectations this week:
Tennessee Volunteers currently
Current record: 1-4 (0-2), 5th in the SEC East
| Sat, Aug 31 | Lost to Georgia State, 30-38 |
| Sat, Sep 7 | Lost to BYU, 29-26 2OT |
| Sat, Sep 14 | Beat Chattanooga, 45-0 |
| Sat, Sep 21 | Lost @ No. 9 Florida, 34-3 |
| Sat, Oct 5 | Lost to No. 3 Georgia, 43-14 |
| Sat, Oct 12 | Beat Mississippi State, 20-10 |
| Sat, Oct 19 | Lost @ 1 Alabama, 35-13 |
| Sat, Oct 26 | Beat South Carolina, 41-21 |
| Sat, Nov 2 | Beat UAB, 30-7 |
| Sat, Nov 9 | Beat Kentucky, 17-13 |
| Sat, Nov 23 | Beat Missouri, 24-20 |
| Sat, Nov 30 | vs Vanderbilt |
The Vols’ past opponents
Georgia State Panthers
Current record: 3-2 (1-1), 2nd in the Sun Belt East
| Sat, Aug 31 | Beat Tennessee, 38-30 |
| Sat, Sep 7 | Beat Furman, 48-42 |
| Sat, Sep 14 | Lost to Western Michigan, 57-10 |
| Sat, Sep 21 | Lost @ Texas State, 37-34 3OT |
| Sat, Oct 5 | Beat Arkansas State, 52-38 |
| Sat, Oct 12 | Beat Coastal Carolina, 31-21 |
| Sat, Oct 19 | Beat Army, 28-21 |
| Sat, Oct 26 | Beat Troy, 52-33 |
| Sat, Nov 9 | Lost @ UL Monroe, 45-31 |
| Sat, Nov 16 | Lost to No. 25 Appalachian State, 56-27 |
| Sat, Nov 23 | Beat South Alabama, 28-15 |
| Sat, Nov 30 | @ Georgia Southern |
The Panthers had 722 yards of offense! It’s not that this loss wasn’t bad, but maybe not quite so horrendous as maybe we thought? Maybe?
BYU Cougars
Current record: 2-3 (0-0)
| Thu, Aug 29 | Lost to No. 14 Utah, 12-30 |
| Sat, Sep 7 | Beat Tennessee, 29-26 2OT |
| Sat, Sep 14 | Beat No. 24 USC, 30-27 OT |
| Sat, Sep 21 | Lost to No. 22 Washington, 45-19 |
| Sat, Sep 28 | Lost @ Toledo, 28-21 |
| Sat, Oct 12 | Lost @ South Florida, 27-23 |
| Sat, Oct 19 | Beat No. 14 Boise State, 28-25 |
| Sat, Nov 2 | Beat Utah State, 42-14 |
| Sat, Nov 9 | Beat Liberty, 31-24 |
| Sat, Nov 16 | Beat Idaho State, 42-10 |
| Sat, Nov 23 | Beat UMass, 56-24 |
| Sat, Nov 30 | @ San Diego State |
Off this week.
Chattanooga Mocs
Current record: 3-3 (2-0), 2nd in the Southern Conference
| Thu, Aug 29 | Beat Eastern Illinois, 24-10 |
| Sat, Sep 7 | Lost to Jacksonville State, 41-20 |
| Sat, Sep 14 | Lost at Tennessee, 45-0 |
| Sat, Sep 21 | Lost to James Madison, 37-14 |
| Sat, Sep 28 | Beat Western Carolina, 60-36 |
| Sat, Oct 5 | Beat Mercer, 34-17 |
| Thu, Oct 17 | Beat East Tennessee State, 16-13 |
| Sat, Oct 26 | Lost @ Wofford, 35-34 OT |
| Sat, Nov 2 | Lost to Furman, 35-20 |
| Sat, Nov 9 | Beat Samford, 35-27 |
| Sat, Nov 16 | Beat The Citadel, 34-33 |
| Sat, Nov 23 | Lost to VMI, 31-24 |
Florida Gators
Current record: 6-0 (3-0), 1st in the SEC East
| Sat, Aug 24 | Beat Miami, 24-20 |
| Sat, Sep 7 | Beat UT Martin, 45-0 |
| Sat, Sep 14 | Beat Kentucky, 29-21 |
| Sat, Sep 21 | Beat Tennessee, 34-3 |
| Sat, Sep 28 | Beat Towson, 38-0 |
| Sat, Oct 5 | Beat No. 7 Auburn, 24-13 |
| Sat, Oct 12 | Lost @ No. 5 LSU, 42-28 |
| Sat, Oct 19 | Beat South Carolina, 38-27 |
| Sat, Nov 2 | Lost to No. 8 Georgia, 24-17 |
| Sat, Nov 9 | Beat Vanderbilt, 56-0 |
| Sat, Nov 16 | Beat Missouri, 23-6 |
| Sat, Nov 30 | vs Florida State |
Raise your hand if you hate the Gators! Will and I disagree a bit about how good Auburn is, but the Gators are looking good, so I’m giving the Vols a bit of a bump because this loss is looking (but not feeling) better.
Georgia Bulldogs
Current record: 5-0 (2-0), 2nd in the SEC East
| Sat, Aug 31 | Beat Vanderbilt, 30-6 |
| Sat, Sep 7 | Beat Murray State, 63-17 |
| Sat, Sep 14 | Beat Arkansas State, 55-0 |
| Sat, Sep 21 | Beat No. 7 Notre Dame, 23-17 |
| Sat, Oct 5 | Beat Tennessee, 43-14 |
| Sat, Oct 12 | Lost to South Carolina, 20-17 2OT |
| Sat, Oct 19 | Beat Kentucky, 21-0 |
| Sat, Nov 2 | Beat No. 6 Florida, 24-17 |
| Sat, Nov 9 | Beat Missouri, 27-0 |
| Sat, Nov 16 | Beat No. 12 Auburn, 21-14 |
| Sat, Nov 23 | Beat Texas A&M, 19-13 |
| Sat, Nov 30 | @ Georgia Tech |
Again, my thoughts on this one are here.
The Vols’ future opponents
The Bulldogs were also off this week.
Mississippi State Bulldogs
Current record: 3-2 (1-1), 5th in the SEC West
| Sat, Aug 31 | Beat Louisiana, 38-28 |
| Sat, Sep 7 | Beat Southern Mississippi, 38-15 |
| Sat, Sep 14 | Lost to Kansas State, 31-24 |
| Sat, Sep 21 | Beat Kentucky, 28-13 |
| Sat, Sep 28 | Lost @ No. 7 Auburn, 56-23 |
| Sat, Oct 12 | Lost @ Tennessee, 20-10 |
| Sat, Oct 19 | Lost to No. 2 LSU |
| Sat, Oct 26 | Lost @ Texas A&M, 49-30 |
| Sat, Nov 2 | Beat Arkansas, 54-24 |
| Sat, Nov 16 | Lost to No. 5 Alabama, 38-7 |
| Sat, Nov 23 | Beat Abilene Christian, 45-7 |
| Thu, Nov 28 | vs Ole Miss |
The Bulldogs were off last week, so getting stomped by Auburn the prior week is the last thing we have to go on. If this game moves on my list, it’s because of the Vols.
Alabama Crimson Tide
Current record: 5-0 (2-0), 1st in the SEC West
| Sat, Aug 31 | Beat Duke, 42-3 |
| Sat, Sep 7 | Beat New Mexico State, 62-10 |
| Sat, Sep 14 | Beat South Carolina, 47-23 |
| Sat, Sep 21 | Beat Southern Miss, 49-7 |
| Sat, Sep 28 | Beat Ole Miss, 59-31 |
| Sat, Oct 12 | Beat No. 24 Texas A&M, 47-28 |
| Sat, Oct 19 | Beat Tennessee, 35-13 |
| Sat, Oct 26 | Beat Arkansas, 48-7 |
| Sat, Nov 9 | Lost to No. 2 LSU, 46-41 |
| Sat, Nov 16 | Beat Mississippi State, 38-7 |
| Sat, Nov 23 | Beat Western Carolina, 66-3 |
| Sat, Nov 30 | @ No. 11 Auburn |
Alabama was also off.
South Carolina Gamecocks
Current record: 2-3 (1-2), 4th in the SEC East
| Sat, Aug 31 | Lost to North Carolina, 24-20 |
| Sat, Sep 7 | Beat Charleston Southern, 72-10 |
| Sat, Sep 14 | Lost to No. 2 Alabama, 47-23 |
| Sat, Sep 21 | Lost @ Missouri, 34-14 |
| Sat, Sep 28 | Beat Kentucky, 24-7 |
| Sat, Oct 12 | Beat No. 3 Georgia, 20-17 2OT |
| Sat, Oct 19 | Lost to No. 9 Florida, 38-27 |
| Sat, Oct 26 | Lost @ Tennessee, 41-21 |
| Sat, Nov 2 | Beat Vanderbilt, 24-7 |
| Sat, Nov 9 | Lost to Appalachian State, 20-15 |
| Sat, Nov 16 | Lost @ Texas A&M, 30-6 |
| Sat, Nov 30 | vs 4 Clemson |
Did anybody play this week besides us?
UAB Blazers
Current record: 4-1 (1-1), 4th in C-USA West
| Thu, Aug 29 | Beat Alabama State, 24-19 |
| Sat, Sep 7 | Beat Akron, 31-20 |
| Sat, Sep 21 | Beat South Alabama, 35-3 |
| Sat, Sep 28 | Lost @ Western Kentucky, 20-13 |
| Sat, Oct 5 | Beat Rice, 35-20 |
| Sat, Oct 12 | Beat UTSA, 33-14 |
| Sat, Oct 19 | Beat Old Dominion, 38-14 |
| Sat, Nov 2 | Lost @ Tennessee, 30-7 |
| Sat, Nov 9 | Lost @ Southern Miss, 37-2 |
| Sat, Nov 16 | Beat UTEP, 37-10 |
| Sat, Nov 23 | Beat Louisiana Tech, 20-14 |
| Sat, Nov 30 | @ North Texas |
Rice has lost 17 of its last 18 games, so . . . .
Kentucky Wildcats
Current record: 2-3 (0-3), 6th in the SEC East
| Sat, Aug 31 | Beat Toledo, 38-24 |
| Sat, Sep 7 | Beat Eastern Michigan, 38-17 |
| Sat, Sep 14 | Lost to No. 8 Florida, 29-21 |
| Sat, Sep 21 | Lost @ Mississippi State, 28-13 |
| Sat, Sep 28 | Lost @ South Carolina, 24-7 |
| Sat, Oct 12 | Beat Arkansas, 24-20 |
| Sat, Oct 19 | Lost to No. 10 Georgia, 21-0 |
| Sat, Oct 26 | Beat Missouri, 29-7 |
| Sat, Nov 9 | Lost to Tennessee, 17-13 |
| Sat, Nov 16 | Beat Vanderbilt, 38-14 |
| Sat, Nov 23 | Beat UT Martin, 50-7 |
| Sat, Nov 30 | vs Louisville |
Off.
Missouri Tigers
Current record: 4-1 (1-0), 3rd in the SEC East
| Sat, Aug 31 | Lost to Wyoming, 37-31 |
| Sat, Sep 7 | Beat West Virginia, 38-7 |
| Sat, Sep 14 | Beat Southeast Missouri State, 50-0 |
| Sat, Sep 21 | Beat South Carolina, 34-14 |
| Sat, Oct 5 | Beat Troy, 42-10 |
| Sat, Oct 12 | Beat Ole Miss, 38-27 |
| Sat, Oct 19 | Lost to Vanderbilt, 21-14 |
| Sat, Oct 26 | Lost @ Kentucky, 29-7 |
| Sat, Nov 9 | Lost @ No. 6 Georgia, 27-0 |
| Sat, Nov 16 | Lost to No. 11 Florida, 23-6 |
| Sat, Nov 23 | Lost to Tennessee, 24-20 |
| Fri, Nov 29 | @ Arkansas |
Missouri looking really good. QB Kelly Bryant left with an injury, but the reports are that he’s going to be ready to roll again this week. Linebacker Cale Garrett, who’s scored three defensive touchdowns this year alone, is out indefinitely, though.
Vanderbilt Commodores
Current record: 1-4 (0-3), 6th in the SEC East
| Sat, Aug 31 | Lost to No. 3 Georgia, 30-6 |
| Sat, Sep 7 | Lost to Purdue, 42-24 |
| Sat, Sep 21 | Lost to No. 4 LSU, 66-38 |
| Sat, Sep 28 | Beat Northern Illinois, 24-18 |
| Sat, Oct 5 | Lost to Ole Miss, 31-6 |
| Sat, Oct 12 | Lost to UNLV, 34-10 |
| Sat, Oct 19 | Beat No. 22 Missouri, 21-14 |
| Sat, Nov 2 | Lost @ South Carolina, 24-7 |
| Sat, Nov 9 | Lost @ No. 10 Florida, 56-0 |
| Sat, Nov 16 | Lost to Kentucky, 38-14 |
| Sat, Nov 23 | Beat ETSU, 38-0 |
| Sat, Nov 30 | @ Tennessee |
Commodores not looking good. They gave up 413 rushing yards to Ole Miss in this game.
What about you? Where are your expectations for the Vols now?
4.2 … up slightly. Looking better, but can we consistently perform and does Maurer stay healthy? Big questions going forward. JG did not look good in a back up role. I wonder how Shrout is doing? And what happened to “Special Teams”? Go Vols!
When I did this immediately after the UGA game I was at 4.4. Slightly cooler Monday morning vibes at 4.25. Again, 5-7 would be an accomplishment for Maurer.
up to a 4.06. I have a tiny glimmer of hope for getting to a bowl game still. this game will be the deciding factor it looks like to me
3.1…bah humbug.
July 25, 2019 (pre-season): 5.96
August 26, 2019 (after “Week Zero”): 5.92
September 3, 2019 (post-Georgia St.): 3.86
September 9, 2019 (post-BYU): 3.09
September 16, 2019 (post-Chattanooga): 3.61
September 24, 2019 (post-Florida): 2.71
September 30, 2019 (post open date): 2.61
October 10, 2019 (post-Georgia): 2.76
My opinion of us didn’t really change but my confidence in a couple of individual games was tweaked slightly upward (UAB and Vanderbilt.)