The GRT Expected Win Total Machine: After Georgia

Use the form below to calculate your expected win total for the rest of the season.

The GRT Expected Win Total Machine

My assessment

The Vols appear to have improved despite failing to cover a huge spread against the Bulldogs at home. For that reason, I’m giving them a slight bump.

Meanwhile, Missouri’s looking better, Vanderbilt’s looking worse, and Mississippi State, Alabama, South Carolina, and Kentucky were all resting comfortably.

With this week’s adjustments, I now have an expected win total of . . . 3.85. Continuing to inch up.

  • Preseason: 6.55
  • After Week 0: 6.6
  • After Week 1: 2.87
  • After Week 2: 2.37
  • After Week 3: 3.65
  • After Week 4: 2.9
  • After Week 5: 3.25
  • After Week 6: 3.85

Details: Alabama remains at 5% and Missouri stays at 25%. South Carolina and Mississippi State both move to 40%, Kentucky and Vanderbilt move to 50%, and UAB moves to 75%.

Here’s a table with my expectations this week:

Tennessee Volunteers currently

Current record: 1-4 (0-2), 5th in the SEC East

The Vols’ past opponents

Georgia State Panthers

Current record: 3-2 (1-1), 2nd in the Sun Belt East

The Panthers had 722 yards of offense! It’s not that this loss wasn’t bad, but maybe not quite so horrendous as maybe we thought? Maybe?

BYU Cougars

Current record: 2-3 (0-0)

Off this week.

Chattanooga Mocs

Current record: 3-3 (2-0), 2nd in the Southern Conference

Florida Gators

Current record: 6-0 (3-0), 1st in the SEC East

Raise your hand if you hate the Gators! Will and I disagree a bit about how good Auburn is, but the Gators are looking good, so I’m giving the Vols a bit of a bump because this loss is looking (but not feeling) better.

Georgia Bulldogs

Current record: 5-0 (2-0), 2nd in the SEC East

Again, my thoughts on this one are here.

The Vols’ future opponents

The Bulldogs were also off this week.

Mississippi State Bulldogs

Current record: 3-2 (1-1), 5th in the SEC West

The Bulldogs were off last week, so getting stomped by Auburn the prior week is the last thing we have to go on. If this game moves on my list, it’s because of the Vols.

Alabama Crimson Tide

Current record: 5-0 (2-0), 1st in the SEC West

Alabama was also off.

South Carolina Gamecocks

Current record: 2-3 (1-2), 4th in the SEC East

Did anybody play this week besides us?

UAB Blazers

Current record: 4-1 (1-1), 4th in C-USA West

Rice has lost 17 of its last 18 games, so . . . .

Kentucky Wildcats

Current record: 2-3 (0-3), 6th in the SEC East


Missouri Tigers

Current record: 4-1 (1-0), 3rd in the SEC East

Missouri looking really good. QB Kelly Bryant left with an injury, but the reports are that he’s going to be ready to roll again this week. Linebacker Cale Garrett, who’s scored three defensive touchdowns this year alone, is out indefinitely, though.

Vanderbilt Commodores

Current record: 1-4 (0-3), 6th in the SEC East

Commodores not looking good. They gave up 413 rushing yards to Ole Miss in this game.

What about you? Where are your expectations for the Vols now?

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4.2 … up slightly. Looking better, but can we consistently perform and does Maurer stay healthy? Big questions going forward. JG did not look good in a back up role. I wonder how Shrout is doing? And what happened to “Special Teams”? Go Vols!

Will Shelton
Will Shelton

When I did this immediately after the UGA game I was at 4.4. Slightly cooler Monday morning vibes at 4.25. Again, 5-7 would be an accomplishment for Maurer.


up to a 4.06. I have a tiny glimmer of hope for getting to a bowl game still. this game will be the deciding factor it looks like to me

Gavin Driskill
Gavin Driskill

3.1…bah humbug.


July 25, 2019 (pre-season): 5.96
August 26, 2019 (after “Week Zero”): 5.92
September 3, 2019 (post-Georgia St.): 3.86
September 9, 2019 (post-BYU): 3.09
September 16, 2019 (post-Chattanooga): 3.61
September 24, 2019 (post-Florida): 2.71
September 30, 2019 (post open date): 2.61
October 10, 2019 (post-Georgia): 2.76

My opinion of us didn’t really change but my confidence in a couple of individual games was tweaked slightly upward (UAB and Vanderbilt.)