Category Archives: Basketball

Here’s the GRT Four Factors Forecast for Tennessee’s game against Kentucky tomorrow.

What to Watch

Oh, good: Kentucky is the worst-shooting team of all of the Vols’ opponents to date. They’re also extremely careless with the ball and nothing special at getting to the free throw line.

But, but, but: The Wildcats are solid on the offensive glass, and despite their struggles this season, they are still a really good defensive team. What might a good defensive team do to an offense searching for consistency? Let’s see!

Score Prediction

You’ll recall that the last time these two met, Tennessee won 82, 71. KemPom projects this one as Tennessee 68, Kentucky 61, which equates to a 75% chance of winning.

Our Hoops Statsy Preview Machine likes the Vols by 10 (Tennessee 70, Kentucky 60) with 10 comps and by 12 with all comps (Tennessee 80, Kentucky 68).

Details below.

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Baseline

Current numbers:

Those defensive numbers look pretty good for them, but most everything else is coming up Vols.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

Conclusion: Wow. The worst shooting team on our schedule? Yes!

Turnover %

Conclusion: Wow. Bad at turning the ball over? Yes!

Offensive Rebound %

Conclusion: Okay, they’re good at getting second chances.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusion: Not terrible at getting to the stripe, although not nearly as good as the Vols. Let’s see how the teams’ respective defenses might impact those numbers.

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

Conclusions

Despite Kentucky’s well-documented struggles this season, they’re still a pretty solid defensive team, which can mean trouble for a Vols’ offense well-known for its inconsistency.

On the other end, though, hoo-boy that’s a huge advantage for the good guys.

Turnover %

Conclusions

The Wildcats are not likely to steal but are oh-so-likely to give the thing away, especially to a team like Tennessee that is proficient at forcing turnovers.

Offensive Rebounding %

Conclusions

Odd. Kentucky is decidedly not good at defensive rebounding, but nipping at the heels of elite on the offensive glass. The funny thing is that the Vols’ advantage under their own basket is more drastic than the ‘Cats advantage under theirs. (When I say “advantage” here, I don’t mean to suggest that either team is going to get more rebounds than the other team under their own bucket, just that they should get a higher-than-normal percentage of their own missed shots.)

Free Throw Rate

Conclusions

If these numbers hold, the Vols should be able to get to the line more often than the ‘Cats.

Go Vols.

The Vols improved to 15-5 (8-5) with a 93-73 win over South Carolina late Wednesday night, a welcome offensive explosion via Victor Bailey’s seven threes and a return to form from John Fulkerson. It’s Kentucky next (1:00 PM Saturday CBS); the Cats have won two straight close games over Auburn and Vanderbilt to break a 1-7 skid. But the advantage should still belong to the Vols, who will look for their ninth win in 14 tries under Rick Barnes in the series.

This is normally when we enter the “last ten games” conversation, but that number is cut in half in 2021. For a season that has felt its share of ups and downs, some historical Tennessee context is helpful to frame this team as it moves toward the tournament.

In KenPom, the 2021 Vols are still in the tier below the 2019 squad. That’s no crime, considering the 2019 Vols put up the best number in program history (26.24) and would be a three-point favorite over anyone else that’s worn orange. But the current team is right in the thick of the conversation of who’s next best:

• 2008: 22.17
• 2014: 23.69
• 2018: 22.27
• 2021: 22.31

Those four plus the 2019 squad are the only Tennessee teams to finish above 20 in KenPom, which goes back to 2002. While the 2008 squad was generally a machine until running into Louisville in the Sweet 16, Cuonzo’s last team and Rick Barnes’ SEC Championship squad knew their share of frustrations in the regular season. If 2021 feels up and down, know it’s still in very good company as far as Tennessee goes.

Here are Tennessee’s NCAA Tournament teams in the last 15 years through their first 20 games:

Year	First 20	Seed	Result
2006	17-3 (8-1)	2	Round Two
2007	14-6 (2-3)	5	Sweet 16
2008	18-2 (5-1)	2	Sweet 16
2009	13-7 (4-2)	9	Round One
2010	16-4 (4-2)	6	Elite Eight
2011	13-7 (3-2)	9	Round One
2014	13-7 (4-3)	Dayton	Sweet 16
2018	15-5 (5-3)	3	Round Two
2019	19-1 (7-0)	2	Sweet 16
2021	15-5 (8-5)	TBD	TBD

While some of Tennessee’s best teams have been better than 15-5 through their first 20, the early SEC returns in 2010, 2014, and 2018 are similar to what we’ve seen so far. And the 2021 Vols have been particularly good at avoiding bad losses. Ole Miss is sneaking into Next Four Out conversations at the Bracket Matrix, and Tennessee’s other four defeats are all NCAA Tournament teams.

By contrast, the 2007 Vols lost six of eight from mid-January to early February, some of which came while Chris Lofton was out with a sprained ankle. But those six defeats included a loss at Auburn, who finished 17-15. The 2010 Vols infamously lost by 22 at USC in December, and by 15 at Georgia at the end of a seven-game winning streak. And if you were around seven years ago, you don’t need the details on Cuonzo Martin’s last season, featuring a pair of losses by four points (and one overtime) to Texas A&M, KenPom #110.

Barnes’ first tournament team in 2018 made their big splash by winning at Rupp Arena on February 6, improving to 18-5 (8-3). They were promptly blown out in Tuscaloosa by 28 four days later, and lost at Georgia by 11 the following Saturday. It happens; maybe it’ll happen to this team later, though later is getting thin. But so far, so good on the 2021 Vols generally taking care of their business.

Inconsistency will continue to be a talking point until it isn’t, and it may not get there with freshmen + covid. Perhaps Tennessee’s win/loss ceiling and NCAA seed possibilities have been diminished from what we thought in mid-January. But the Vols are among very good company in KenPom, don’t lose to bad teams, and may still find some of their best basketball ahead of them. And if they can get Kentucky again, we’ll find ourselves feeling quite good about Tennessee.

Go Vols.

UPDATE: This game has been moved to Wednesday.

Here’s the GRT Four Factors Forecast for Tennessee’s game against South Carolina tonight.

What to Watch

Oh, good: With the exception of offensive rebounding (see below), South Carolina is struggling in all of the key Four Factors. There are huge disparities between what the Vols generally do and what the Gamecocks generally do, and those disparities should result in a relatively comfortable Vols victory. Those differences are especially pronounced when the Gamecocks are shooting against the Vols’ defense, when the Gamecocks are trying not to turn it over to a thieving Vols squad, and when the Vols’ offense is forcing the issue and getting to the foul line.

But, but, but: Apart from the Vols’ own consistency problems, South Carolina is extremely active on the offensive glass and could earn a frustrating number of second chances and leverage them into a closer contest than it should be.

Score Prediction

Vegas has the Vols as 10-point favorites, and with an over/under of 142, the anticipated score should be something like Tennessee 76, South Carolina 66.

KemPom’s projection is Tennessee 75, South Carolina 65), which equates to an 83% chance of winning.

Our Hoops Statsy Preview Machine likes the Vols by 15 (Tennessee 78, South Carolina 63) with 10 comps and by 14 with all comps (Tennessee 80, South Carolina 66).

Details below.

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Baseline

Current numbers:

The Vols are better everywhere except the offensive glass.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

Conclusion: Among the Vols’ prior opponents, South Carolina is most like Cincinnati and Texas A&M. In other words, not especially good at getting the ball into the basket.

Turnover %

Conclusion: Similar story here; most like Cincinnati and Mississippi State, and not especially good.

Offensive Rebound %

Conclusion: This, however, is a very different story, as the Gamecocks are extremely good on the offensive boards, currently tied with Georgia and not far off Mississippi State. In this category, South Carolina will be one of the three best we’ve played.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusion: And back to the other story. Not good at getting to the free throw line. Most like Colorado and USC Upstate.

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

Conclusions

Tennessee’s inconsistency on the offensive side of the court has produced a very mediocre effective shooting percentage. Fortunately, South Carolina’s defense shouldn’t make things worse tonight. On the other end, that is an absolutely huge disparity with a team that struggles to find the bottom of the net going up against a team that is very good at keeping you from doing it.

Turnover %

Conclusions

Each defense appears to have an advantage over its opponent’s offense when it comes to creating turnovers. Fortunately for the Vols, SC’s advantage is not nearly as pronounced as Tennessee’s, which is massive. Expect the Vols’ offense to turn it over some — especially if the Gamecocks ramp up the pressure and the traps — but also expect the Vols’ defense to go racing the other direction quite often after forcing a ton of turnovers themselves.

Offensive Rebounding %

Conclusions

As good as South Carolina is at grabbing offensive rebounds, their advantage over Tennessee’s defense on that end of the court isn’t as big as it is for the Vols on the other end. Make no mistake, expect to be frustrated at the number of second chance opportunities for Carolina. But Tennessee should have an opportunity to mitigate that problem by doing pretty much the same thing under their own basket.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusions

Okay. If they want to, tonight could be a good time for the Vols to re-establish themselves at the free throw line.

Go Vols.

I don’t think the highs and lows quite qualify as a roller coaster, but Tennessee’s basketball season is definitely on a winding road. The hope, of course, is that this thing is still going up the mountain: the Vols were the 11th-best team in college basketball in the eyes of the selection committee on Saturday, before the loss to LSU. That followed a pair of statement wins over Kansas and at Kentucky the previous two Saturdays. It remains incredibly important this year to earn at least a #3 seed in the NCAA Tournament, ensuring you avoid Gonzaga and Baylor until at least the Elite Eight. The Zags, in particular, would now be at least an eight-point favorite over any team in the nation that isn’t Baylor via KenPom. And Baylor would be at least -5.5 on the non-Gonzaga field.

Despite what those two are accomplishing, inconsistency is still generally the theme. It comes with covid, and it comes with freshmen, though Tennessee’s most recent struggles have come from everyone else’s contributions while Keon Johnson and Jaden Springer move to the front. The Vols also have health issues, as Yves Pons was clearly at less than 100% at LSU and UT’s defense suffered for it.

Still, the Vols are third nationally in KenPom defense, and the schedule should provide some opportunity for retooling. A second date with Florida needs to be rescheduled, but the Gators represent the only NCAA Tournament team left on Tennessee’s schedule. The Vols’ five SEC losses – all Quad 1 – currently leave them in fifth place in the league, but KenPom projects them to fall just once more, with six losses good enough to finish tied for second.

The schedule should help. How can the Vols help themselves?

The good news: I don’t think we’re far away, and I don’t think we’re done getting better.

Points

• When UT scores 65 or fewer points: 3-5
• When UT scores 66+ points: 11-0

Offense is definitely the greater challenge, and while the freshmen have been good, this is still a work in progress. But when your defense is this good, this is the simplest way to explain it: so far, when the Vols score 66 points, they win.

Early on, Tennessee was able to beat Colorado (now #14 KenPom!) with just 56 points. That’s also how the Vols escaped against Mississippi State.

This number won’t do it alone: in four of Tennessee’s five losses, 66 points wouldn’t have been enough. Alabama, Florida, Missouri, and LSU all scored in the 70s. But it’s a good starting point for success. And what’s been the most effective way the Vols have scored points?

Free Throws

• When UT shoots 65% or less at the line: 1-4
• When UT shoots 66% or better at the line: 13-1

Tennessee leads the SEC in free throw rate. The freshmen both excel at drawing contact, and it’s still one of John Fulkerson’s real strengths as well. Throughout the year, getting to the line has been the steadying play for a struggling offense.

But you have to make them when you get there. In losses:

• Alabama: 17-of-26 (65.4%)
• Florida: 12-of-25 (48%)
• Missouri: 13-of-21 (61.9%)
• Ole Miss: 10-of-16 (62.5%)
• LSU: 13-of-17 (76.5%)

So not the problem on the Bayou, but problematic everywhere else in defeat. I’m sure there’s a confidence factor that comes into play here too. The freshmen are the team’s best at getting to the line, but the worst among regular contributors once there: Springer is okay at 75%, but Johnson just 68.9%.

In part, I think what happened at LSU is you had a physical game with few whistles. That’ll happen again. The Vols have to figure out how to respond when they can’t get it at the line, and will continue to be vulnerable if they don’t take advantage when there.

If you really want to lean into the team’s strengths:

Forcing Turnovers

• When UT’s opponent has 13 or fewer turnovers: 3-4
• When UT’s opponent has 14+ turnovers: 11-1

Just as getting to the line is the strength of the offense, turning it over continues to be the strength of the defense. The Vols are 18th nationally and second in the SEC in turnover rate, getting one on 23.1% of opponent possessions. The Vols can win without it: Kansas had a season-low seven turnovers and got waxed. The Ole Miss game continues to go in the weird category, the exception to the 14+ rule with 17 from the Rebels in their win.

But the others, all NCAA Tournament teams, had between 10-13 turnovers against the Vols. That jumps out to me, and can jump-start Tennessee’s offense if the Vols can get that going again.

When the Vols force turnovers, getting to 66 points shouldn’t be a problem because they generate offense, and 66 points should be enough. When it’s not, Tennessee needs to clean up its free throw shooting. Beyond that, there’s still plenty of room for offensive improvement. There’s also the notion that shots will still fall: for what it’s worth, Shot Quality has the Vols shooting 3.4% under their expected average from three, second-highest among ranked teams. That means a Tennessee team shooting 34% from the arc is getting good enough looks to be shooting 37%.

Maybe something like that will come around, maybe not. But if the Vols continue to force turnovers and clean it up at the line, Tennessee will create plenty of opportunities for themselves.

Here’s the GRT Four Factors Forecast for Tennessee’s game against LSU tomorrow.

What to Watch

Challenges: LSU shoots as well as anybody the Vols have played, they don’t turn the ball over much, and they look like an even matchup on the offensive glass and at getting to the free throw line.

Happy thoughts: When you factor in the teams’ respective defenses, Tennessee does appear to have an advantage in most of the Four Factors categories, although each of those apparent advantages is pretty slight.

Score Prediction

The line isn’t out yet, but KemPom’s projection is Tennessee 74, LSU 73), which equates to a 54% chance of winning.

Our Hoops Statsy Preview Machine is more optimistic, liking the Vols by 8 (Tennessee 78, LSU 70) with 10 comps and by 6 with all comps (Tennessee 83, LSU 77).

Details below.

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Baseline

Current numbers:

So that looks pretty even, except that their shooting offense is slightly better and Tennessee’s defense is quite a bit better.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

Conclusion: These guys shoot even better than Georgia. Basically, they’re tied with the best-shooting team that Tennessee has played so far this season in Florida, to whom they lost.

Turnover %

Conclusion: Okay, so they don’t turn the ball over, either.

Offensive Rebound %

Conclusion: This basically amounts to decent on the offensive glass. Essentially the same as Florida and Tennessee.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusion: Well, crud. These guys are good across the board, including at getting to the free throw line. Let’s see what adding in the respective defenses does to the analysis.

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

Conclusions

The shooting analysis is essentially the same as it was for the Georgia game except that LSU is even better on both ends. The Vols should be able to have a decent afternoon shooting the ball, and they’re going to need that spectacular defense because LSU is a real threat to shoot well and put up points. The Vols do appear to be the better team in this category, but the difference isn’t nearly as pronounced as it has been for most previews.

Turnover %

Conclusions

Ugh, all of this stuff is way too close. What those numbers don’t know is that the book is out on the Vols, and opponents can crank up those turnovers numbers just by pressuring our ball handlers. The only possible solution to that I can think of is to try to get the ball to Keon and let him dribble around the traps as they’re coming and before they get there.

To make matters worse, LSU’s offense isn’t nearly as generous as Georgia’s. As with shooting, the Vols do appear to be the better team, but not by much.

Offensive Rebounding %

Conclusions

This could be an opportunity for the Vols. They are decent on the offensive glass, but LSU’s defensive rebounding isn’t up to the same standard as the rest of their game. On the other end, LSU has a similar advantage, but it is not as pronounced.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusions

Ugh again, too close to call for Tennessee getting to the line, and LSU could make some hay there.

Go Vols.

The committee will reveal their Top 16 this Saturday (12:30 PM CBS), a month and a day from Selection Sunday. As Wayne Staats points out, the original grouping usually holds up, for the most part. In 2018 the Vols were the top #4 seed in the first reveal, and ended up earning a #3 seed. In 2019 the Vols were the second #1 seed in the first reveal, and ended up just missing the top line as the top #2 seed.

With no geography involved this year, the individual team rankings will matter much more in the bracket (as in, the top #1 seed should be grouped with the bottom #2 seed, etc., with a few exceptions to keep the best teams from the same conferences separate). And for those dreaming of deep tournament runs, nothing matters more in 2021 than this: stay away from Gonzaga and Baylor.

The Zags and Bears are currently at least seven-point favorites against anyone else via KenPom; they’d be 12 point favorites against Tennessee. Earlier this year we talked about the value of earning one of the other #1 seeds to ensure you stayed away from those two. But as the Vols are looking to advance to just their second Elite Eight (and potentially the first Final Four), there’s still extreme value in staying off the #4 line, ensuring you wouldn’t see either of those two until at least the Elite Eight. If you get lucky and are placed in one of the other “regions”, great. But if not, at least you make some history before getting the chance to make even more against those two.

Outside the Zags and Bears, we expect the Top 16 to be dominated by the Big 10 & 12. Villanova and Houston would certainly have compelling cases, as does Virginia as the best of the ACC.

But the SEC is also making a strong case with its top three teams. In yesterday’s Bracket Matrix, Alabama was a #2 seed, with Missouri and Tennessee at #3. And in Bart Torvik’s predictive bracketology, the Vols and Tide are both on the #2 line, with Missouri at #5. And those three teams are finished playing each other in the regular season.

Getting three teams in the Top 16 on Selection Sunday would be a major win for the SEC, especially with no Kentucky in the mix. How far has the league come? Since expansion to 14 teams nearly ten years ago now, here’s how often the SEC has placed teams on the Top 4 lines in the NCAA Tournmament:

• 2013: Florida (3)
• 2014: Florida (1)
• 2015: Kentucky (1)
• 2016: Texas A&M (3), Kentucky (4)
• 2017: Kentucky (2), Florida (4)
• 2018: Tennessee (3), Auburn (4)
• 2019: Tennessee (2), Kentucky (2), LSU (3)

In fact, in the last played tournament two years ago, Auburn and Mississippi State just missed the Top 16, both on the #5 line.

While Arkansas and LSU try to stay on the right side of the bubble, don’t discount Florida either: the Gators are currently a #7 seed in the Bracket Matrix, but have games left with Arkansas, Missouri and, if rescheduled, Tennessee. The league should be able to get six teams in the field, but the three (maybe four) teams at the top can be about as good a group as we’ve seen since expansion. The league continues to trend in the right direction in basketball, and Tennessee continues to be a big part of it. Getting to a #3 seed or higher means your season doesn’t end via Gonzaga or Baylor without making some history first. And with Saturday’s performance still fresh in our minds, Tennessee’s expanding ceiling suggests they’ll very much belong in the Top 16.

Here’s the GRT Four Factors Forecast for Tennessee’s game against Georgia tonight.

What to Watch

Challenges: The Bulldogs tend to hit a high percentage of their shots. In addition, they are exceptional on the offensive glass, and they know how to create chaos by forcing turnovers.

Happy thoughts: Although they’re generally active in the thievery trade, the Bulldogs must have a guilty conscience or something, because whatever they steal, they tend to give back with interest. Also, Georgia’s less-than-stellar defense should mean a decent shooting night for a Tennessee team still lacking consistency in that department.

Score Prediction

Vegas has Tennessee as a 12.5-point favorite, and with an over/under of 140.5, a score prediction of something like Tennessee 76, Georgia 64.

KemPom’s projection is exactly that (Tennessee 76, Georgia 64), which equates to an 87% chance of winning.

Our Hoops Statsy Preview Machine likes the Vols by 10 (Tennessee 75, Georgia 65) with 10 comps. Using all games as comps, it predicts a higher-scoring game and a bigger margin for the Vols: Tennessee 84, Georgia 71.

Details below.

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Baseline

Current numbers:

Hmm. These guys can shoot, and they get a fair amount of offensive rebounds. They don’t really defend very well, though, and they like to give the ball away.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

Conclusion: Like I said, these guys can shoot. They’re not quite up to the standard of Colorado and Florida, but they lead the pack of Vanderbilt, Alabama (gulp), Arkansas, and Missouri.

Turnover %

Conclusion: Free turnovers!

Offensive Rebound %

Conclusion: Ugh. Elite-level offensive rebounding for the Bulldogs. Our hearts don’t generally get pierced by o-boards (but see Ole Miss), but that’s something to watch for sure.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusion: Okay, not bad. Among prior Vols’ opponents, Georgia is most like Vanderbilt and Ole Miss at getting to the line.

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

Conclusions

The Vols sometimes shoot well and sometimes don’t. Fortunately, Georgia’s defense should pave the way for a “sometimes shoot well” night.

On the other end, the Bulldogs usually shoot pretty well, but will be going up against an octopus with boa constrictors for appendages, so it could be tougher sledding than usual. Yes, that sentence includes a sea creature, a snake from the American West, and the elements and transportation indigenous to Anchorage. You’re welcome.

Turnover %

Conclusions

Well, shoot. The Bulldogs know how to force turnovers, too. Let’s just give the ball to each other and see who wins!

Fortunately, Georgia’s offense is much more generous than the Vols’. The odd thing is that the Bulldogs go to all that trouble to pull off a spree of exceptional heists but then just leave the valuables on the front lawn at night. But we’ll take it.

Offensive Rebounding %

Conclusions

Ooh, look at all of those second chances for both teams.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusions

Advantage, Tennessee, although the Vols are fouling much more now than they were earlier in the season.

Go Vols.

Tonight was 20 minutes of everything you hate about Rupp Arena, then eight minutes of a really good basketball game, then 12 minutes of absolute joy.

If you watched, you don’t need much analysis on the foul situation early. Six Tennessee players had two fouls in the first half, including John Fulkerson in less than three minutes. Kentucky shot 13-of-15 at the line by halftime and built a 42-34 lead, the most points any team scored on the nation’s number one defense in any half this year. Different Rupp, same -erees.

Which just made it all the more fun to win anyway.

The Vols and Cats traded blows to open the second half, with what felt like a thousand possessions where one team would score and the other answered immediately. This time Tennessee found its way to the bonus early, but was still down 10 with 12 minutes to go. It seemed like the game had settled into a really nice flow.

And then it became one-way traffic.

Down ten with 12 to play, the Vols tied it up in less than three minutes. Keon Johnson and Jaden Springer hit four free throws around a score from Keon, then Yves Pons scored twice inside to tie it.

Keon again gave Tennessee the lead, then that really good basketball game broke out again for a minute. Kentucky scored four straight to retake the lead, then Keon Johnson did this:

Keon Johnson having himself a coming out party tonight for Tennessee. pic.twitter.com/SeNWlECrUA

— Trey Wallace (@TreyWallace_) February 7, 2021

He tried it again a minute later in a tie game, but was rejected on a sensational play by Davion Mintz. No worries: right back to Keon, who was fouled again, and knocked down two to put the Vols back in front 66-64 with 6:27 to play.

They wouldn’t trail again.

In a role reversal from Tuesday night in Oxford, Kentucky’s guards turned it over on consecutive possessions, and Tennessee suddenly had a six point lead. And with so much talk about the offense tonight – rightfully so – Tennessee’s defense kept Kentucky on 64 points for more than four minutes down the stretch. When the Cats cut it to eight with 1:54 to go, the Vols drained the shot clock, and Keon Johnson found Santiago Vescovi, who buried a three.

If you didn’t see it, just watch the last 12 minutes on a loop. From down 58-48 at that point, Tennessee closed on a 34-13 run to win by 11.

And if you didn’t see it, I’m not sure my or anyone’s words could do justice to what we saw from the freshmen tonight.

Fulkerson played less than three minutes in the first half and ten in the game with four fouls. He didn’t score, though he got plenty at Rupp last year. Vescovi’s dagger three? His only points. Yves, who hit those two big shots inside to bring it back even at the seven minute mark? Those were four of his six points.

Credit Victor Bailey for hitting enough shots to prevent a rout in the first half, where Tennessee also got some quality minutes from E.J. Anosike and Uros Plavsic. Credit Josiah-Jordan James for his first double-double, 10 points and 10 boards.

And when you envisioned what two five stars might do in the lineup at the same time? Tonight was that night.

After Pons scored back-to-back to tie it at 58-58, Keon Johnson and Jaden Springer scored Tennessee’s next 18 points. That’s everything from tie game to Vescovi’s dagger.

Jaden Springer had 23 points, five rebounds, and three blocks. Keon Johnson had 27 points, four rebounds, and three assists. Springer hit one three. Keon didn’t hit any. Go to the rim, baby. (And hit free throws, where a sometimes unsteady Keon hit 9-of-11.)

I said earlier I didn’t think anything about the Ole Miss loss changed my view of Tennessee’s ceiling, though it certainly made me look twice at the floor.

This tonight was a ceiling win.

There are seven games left (eight if they reschedule South Carolina), and if they’re over their own covid issues, Florida will present an immediate second opinion Wednesday night in Knoxville. There’s still more to see. But if what Tennessee got from its freshmen tonight can be duplicated, that ceiling might need some work. And if those freshmen become reliable first and second options, it might also help John Fulkerson’s game re-establish itself.

There’s more to watch, but tonight might’ve been the only chance to see Johnson and Springer at Rupp Arena. If so, “Remember that time those two freshmen had their coming out party?” goes right alongside, “Remember that time Fulkerson scored 27 up there?” Because now, after winning four times in Lexington in the first 40 years of Rupp Arena, the Vols have won three of the last four. And Rick Barnes is 8-5 against Kentucky at Tennessee.

It’s a weird year, new football coach, basketball team lost more games than you thought they might’ve to this point. But you don’t miss any chance to celebrate beating Kentucky. Once upon a time, in many of our lifetimes, we beat Alabama seven years in a row in football. This, in my lifetime, is as good as it’s every been against our biggest rival in basketball. Don’t miss it. Don’t waste it. Celebrate it, and then let’s get them again two weeks from today.

And that ceiling…you might want to look again.

Go Vols.

What we’re seeing from Tennessee right now is something we might’ve predicted at the start of the season, but a 10-1 flurry with the lone loss to hot-shooting Alabama made us believers in something more. Our program has little experience playing multiple freshmen heavy minutes, and mostly zero when two potential first round picks are asked to carry this kind of load offensively.

Rick Barnes probably knows what to expect in this situation from Texas. When his Longhorns asked big things from multiple freshmen, they tended to hit speed bumps along the way:

• 2014 (Isaiah Taylor, Martez Walker): Started 20-5, finished 3-6. Lost in the second round as a 7 seed to 2 seed Michigan.
• 2011 (Cory Joseph, Tristan Thompson): Started 23-3, finished 4-4. Lost by one point in the second round as a 4 seed to 5 seed Arizona.
• 2010 (J’Covan Brown, Avery Bradley, Jordan Hamilton): Started 17-0, finished 7-9. Lost in overtime in the first round as an 8 seed.
• 2007 (Kevin Durant, D.J. Augustin, Damion James, Justin Mason): Started 13-3, finished 11-6. Lost in the second round as a 4 seed to 5 seed USC.

Obviously there’s no Kevin Durant on this team, but that’s the kind of “inconsistency” you’d like to see: maybe not going to rampage through the regular season the way you thought they would early, but still plenty of big wins along the way so there’s not a before/after or, “And then they hit the wall,” moment.

What we hoped the Vols would have sorted out by the time they hit mid-January has carried through the most challenging part of their schedule into February. I don’t think Tennessee or its freshmen have hit any kind of wall – recall the 19-point win over Kansas six days ago – but they’re also clearly not done figuring themselves out, especially as more is being asked from the freshmen. Consistency is the current challenge.

The loss at Ole Miss didn’t do much to change my thoughts on Tennessee’s ceiling: the Vols played quite poorly down the stretch on offense, had an unusually high number of turnovers, and credit Ole Miss for hitting some big shots. A close road loss like that didn’t ding the Vols much in the advanced metrics. But it is the first time Tennessee lost to anything other than a really good team, which at least makes you wonder about Tennessee’s floor.

Via KenPom, the Vols are still the best defensive team in the nation, and school history. That part hasn’t suffered in these losses. But if Tennessee runs into an on-fire opponent (Alabama) or scores 49 (Florida) or 50 (Ole Miss) points on its own end, the Vols are clearly vulnerable. And the Rebels getting it done shows that vulnerability can be present before we get to the second weekend of the tournament.

In Oxford, Keon Johnson’s 27 minutes were the most he’s played in a game that Jaden Springer finished, and Springer’s 31 were a season high. All of Tennessee’s previous losses came when Springer was hurt, then Tuesday night he had his worst outing of the year: 1-of-7, 0-of-2 at the line, three turnovers, two points. That’ll happen to freshmen; let’s see a little more data with both of those guys playing big minutes, but it’s another argument for how valuable their ability to get their own shots and empower Tennessee’s offense is.

Speaking of vulnerability, tomorrow night it’s Rupp Arena. Kentucky is 5-11 (4-5) and has lost at home to Richmond, Notre Dame, and Alabama this year. In addition to the usual, the Cats make me nervous because they’re 352nd nationally in KenPom’s luck ratings: some of their losses have come from teams shooting wildly higher percentages than they’re accustomed to. It’s super frustrating to be a fan of one of these “bad luck” teams (see Cuonzo’s 2014 squad, 341st in luck), but they’re also the kind of teams that can still blow you out of the water when things do start falling their way (see also Cuonzo’s 2014 squad).

You’ll want to watch the whistles in this one, but where Tennessee is most likely to thrive is via turnovers: the Cats’ young guards have struggled mightily at times here, Tennessee’s defense is one of the best in the land at it, and Kentucky’s defense doesn’t force many on the other end.

And, of course, it’s Rupp. Tennessee’s thrilling come-from-behind win there last year lost some of its luster because it happened on March 3, and we stopped playing sports altogether ten days later. But if the Vols win tomorrow, it’ll be three wins in four years in Lexington. From 1977-2017, the Vols won there four times. And in this case, a W would make it four-of-five against Kentucky overall.

You throw a lot out this year with the pandemic, making it harder to understand both Kentucky’s struggles and Tennessee’s quest for consistency. Alabama is running away with the regular season league title and on track to earn their own one seed. From there, the Vols are one of five teams (Arkansas, Florida, LSU, Missouri) projected to finish with six or seven SEC losses via KenPom. Two of those teams won’t earn a double bye in the SEC Tournament. But that crowded field is also establishing itself well in the NCAA Tournament:

• February 4 Bracket Matrix: Alabama 2, Tennessee 3, Missouri 4, Florida 7, Arkansas 11, LSU 11
• February 5 Torvik Predictive Bracketology: Alabama 1, Tennessee 3, Missouri 5, Florida 6, Arkansas 8, LSU 10

The league’s top tier is still quite strong, and Tennessee is right in the thick of it. And the long game in college basketball this year is still about Gonzaga, Baylor, then everybody else. So there is extreme value in earning at least a three seed, meaning you wouldn’t see either of those teams until the Elite Eight at the earliest.

In some ways, we’ll still measure Tennessee by what they do against Kentucky, with a chance to make the kind of history at Rupp Arena that would’ve seemed absurd just four years ago. Overall, Tennessee is looking for more consistency, which means we won’t get all the answers tomorrow night. But if we get enough to beat Kentucky again, all will be quite well once more.

Saturday, 8:00 PM, ESPN. Go Vols.

Here’s the GRT Four Factors Forecast for Tennessee’s game against Ole Miss tonight.

What to Watch

Happy thoughts: The Rebels haven’t shot particularly well over the course of the season, and the Vols’ shooting defense has the potential to make them look downright silly this evening. Combine that with a posse of elite-level burglars and an advantage at getting to the free throw line, and Tennessee should get what they want tonight.

Challenges: But the Rebs are a rival gang of elite burglars themselves, and they appear to have an advantage on the offensive glass as well, so this is a no-coasting zone for the Vols.

Score Prediction

Vegas has Tennessee as a 4.5-point favorite, and with an over/under of 124.5, a score prediction of something like Tennessee 64, Ole Miss 60.

KemPom projects a 5-point win for the Vols (Tennessee 63, Ole Miss 58), which equates to a 64% chance of winning.

Our Hoops Statsy Preview Machine is slightly more optimistic, liking the Vols by 8 (Tennessee 69, Ole Miss 61). The Vols are scoring 111% of what their opponents usually allow, and allowing only 87% of what their opponents usually get.

Details below.

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Baseline

Current numbers:

Tennessee looks better across the board, with the exception of offensive rebounds. That one is close enough to essentially be a push.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

Conclusion: Among prior Vols’ opponents, Ole Miss looks most like Tennessee Tech and Cincinnati in effective field goal shooting percentage.

Turnover %

Conclusion: Most like Florida and Mississippi State here.

Offensive Rebound %

Conclusion: Hmm. Another very good offensive rebounding team. Most like Arkansas. The good news is that among other good offensive rebounding teams, only Florida has resulted in a loss, and that may have been for other reasons.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusion: Most like App State at getting to the free throw line, and not as good as the Vols.

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

Conclusions

The Vols dropped shots against Kansas, but it’s going to take several games like that to erase a season’s worth of shooting woes. Ole Miss’ defense shouldn’t make progress in that department too difficult this evening.

On the other end, not only do the Rebels shoot poorly, the Vols’ defense has the very real potential to make them look downright silly.

https://giphy.com/gifs/baby-funny-11PVuEm7Osdjoc

Turnover %

Conclusions

Hey, look. It’s Ocean’s 11 versus the Night Fox. We shall see about that, especially since we have our stuff locked up a little tighter than do the Rebs.

Offensive Rebounding %

Conclusions

Okay, a possible slight advantage here for Ole Miss. Both teams are decent on the offensive glass, but the Rebels are slightly better, and the teams look pretty much the same on the defensive end.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusions

Advantage, Tennessee.

Go Vols.