Tennessee-Georgia Four Factors Forecast: Buckets, steals, and o-boards

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Here’s the GRT Four Factors Forecast for Tennessee’s game against Georgia tonight.

What to Watch

Challenges: The Bulldogs tend to hit a high percentage of their shots. In addition, they are exceptional on the offensive glass, and they know how to create chaos by forcing turnovers.

Happy thoughts: Although they’re generally active in the thievery trade, the Bulldogs must have a guilty conscience or something, because whatever they steal, they tend to give back with interest. Also, Georgia’s less-than-stellar defense should mean a decent shooting night for a Tennessee team still lacking consistency in that department.

Score Prediction

Vegas has Tennessee as a 12.5-point favorite, and with an over/under of 140.5, a score prediction of something like Tennessee 76, Georgia 64.

KemPom’s projection is exactly that (Tennessee 76, Georgia 64), which equates to an 87% chance of winning.

Our Hoops Statsy Preview Machine likes the Vols by 10 (Tennessee 75, Georgia 65) with 10 comps. Using all games as comps, it predicts a higher-scoring game and a bigger margin for the Vols: Tennessee 84, Georgia 71.

Details below.


Baseline

Current numbers:

Hmm. These guys can shoot, and they get a fair amount of offensive rebounds. They don’t really defend very well, though, and they like to give the ball away.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

Conclusion: Like I said, these guys can shoot. They’re not quite up to the standard of Colorado and Florida, but they lead the pack of Vanderbilt, Alabama (gulp), Arkansas, and Missouri.

Turnover %

Conclusion: Free turnovers!

Offensive Rebound %

Conclusion: Ugh. Elite-level offensive rebounding for the Bulldogs. Our hearts don’t generally get pierced by o-boards (but see Ole Miss), but that’s something to watch for sure.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusion: Okay, not bad. Among prior Vols’ opponents, Georgia is most like Vanderbilt and Ole Miss at getting to the line.

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

Conclusions

The Vols sometimes shoot well and sometimes don’t. Fortunately, Georgia’s defense should pave the way for a “sometimes shoot well” night.

On the other end, the Bulldogs usually shoot pretty well, but will be going up against an octopus with boa constrictors for appendages, so it could be tougher sledding than usual. Yes, that sentence includes a sea creature, a snake from the American West, and the elements and transportation indigenous to Anchorage. You’re welcome.

Turnover %

Conclusions

Well, shoot. The Bulldogs know how to force turnovers, too. Let’s just give the ball to each other and see who wins!

Fortunately, Georgia’s offense is much more generous than the Vols’. The odd thing is that the Bulldogs go to all that trouble to pull off a spree of exceptional heists but then just leave the valuables on the front lawn at night. But we’ll take it.

Offensive Rebounding %

Conclusions

Ooh, look at all of those second chances for both teams.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusions

Advantage, Tennessee, although the Vols are fouling much more now than they were earlier in the season.

Go Vols.

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