Tennessee-Kentucky Four Factors Forecast

Here’s the GRT Four Factors Forecast for Tennessee’s game against Kentucky tomorrow.

What to Watch

Oh, good: Kentucky is the worst-shooting team of all of the Vols’ opponents to date. They’re also extremely careless with the ball and nothing special at getting to the free throw line.

But, but, but: The Wildcats are solid on the offensive glass, and despite their struggles this season, they are still a really good defensive team. What might a good defensive team do to an offense searching for consistency? Let’s see!

Score Prediction

You’ll recall that the last time these two met, Tennessee won 82, 71. KemPom projects this one as Tennessee 68, Kentucky 61, which equates to a 75% chance of winning.

Our Hoops Statsy Preview Machine likes the Vols by 10 (Tennessee 70, Kentucky 60) with 10 comps and by 12 with all comps (Tennessee 80, Kentucky 68).

Details below.


Current numbers:

Those defensive numbers look pretty good for them, but most everything else is coming up Vols.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

Conclusion: Wow. The worst shooting team on our schedule? Yes!

Turnover %

Conclusion: Wow. Bad at turning the ball over? Yes!

Offensive Rebound %

Conclusion: Okay, they’re good at getting second chances.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusion: Not terrible at getting to the stripe, although not nearly as good as the Vols. Let’s see how the teams’ respective defenses might impact those numbers.

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%


Despite Kentucky’s well-documented struggles this season, they’re still a pretty solid defensive team, which can mean trouble for a Vols’ offense well-known for its inconsistency.

On the other end, though, hoo-boy that’s a huge advantage for the good guys.

Turnover %


The Wildcats are not likely to steal but are oh-so-likely to give the thing away, especially to a team like Tennessee that is proficient at forcing turnovers.

Offensive Rebounding %


Odd. Kentucky is decidedly not good at defensive rebounding, but nipping at the heels of elite on the offensive glass. The funny thing is that the Vols’ advantage under their own basket is more drastic than the ‘Cats advantage under theirs. (When I say “advantage” here, I don’t mean to suggest that either team is going to get more rebounds than the other team under their own bucket, just that they should get a higher-than-normal percentage of their own missed shots.)

Free Throw Rate


If these numbers hold, the Vols should be able to get to the line more often than the ‘Cats.

Go Vols.

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