Tennessee-LSU Four Factors Forecast: Too close to call

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Here’s the GRT Four Factors Forecast for Tennessee’s game against LSU tomorrow.

What to Watch

Challenges: LSU shoots as well as anybody the Vols have played, they don’t turn the ball over much, and they look like an even matchup on the offensive glass and at getting to the free throw line.

Happy thoughts: When you factor in the teams’ respective defenses, Tennessee does appear to have an advantage in most of the Four Factors categories, although each of those apparent advantages is pretty slight.

Score Prediction

The line isn’t out yet, but KemPom’s projection is Tennessee 74, LSU 73), which equates to a 54% chance of winning.

Our Hoops Statsy Preview Machine is more optimistic, liking the Vols by 8 (Tennessee 78, LSU 70) with 10 comps and by 6 with all comps (Tennessee 83, LSU 77).

Details below.


Baseline

Current numbers:

So that looks pretty even, except that their shooting offense is slightly better and Tennessee’s defense is quite a bit better.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

Conclusion: These guys shoot even better than Georgia. Basically, they’re tied with the best-shooting team that Tennessee has played so far this season in Florida, to whom they lost.

Turnover %

Conclusion: Okay, so they don’t turn the ball over, either.

Offensive Rebound %

Conclusion: This basically amounts to decent on the offensive glass. Essentially the same as Florida and Tennessee.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusion: Well, crud. These guys are good across the board, including at getting to the free throw line. Let’s see what adding in the respective defenses does to the analysis.

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

Conclusions

The shooting analysis is essentially the same as it was for the Georgia game except that LSU is even better on both ends. The Vols should be able to have a decent afternoon shooting the ball, and they’re going to need that spectacular defense because LSU is a real threat to shoot well and put up points. The Vols do appear to be the better team in this category, but the difference isn’t nearly as pronounced as it has been for most previews.

Turnover %

Conclusions

Ugh, all of this stuff is way too close. What those numbers don’t know is that the book is out on the Vols, and opponents can crank up those turnovers numbers just by pressuring our ball handlers. The only possible solution to that I can think of is to try to get the ball to Keon and let him dribble around the traps as they’re coming and before they get there.

To make matters worse, LSU’s offense isn’t nearly as generous as Georgia’s. As with shooting, the Vols do appear to be the better team, but not by much.

Offensive Rebounding %

Conclusions

This could be an opportunity for the Vols. They are decent on the offensive glass, but LSU’s defensive rebounding isn’t up to the same standard as the rest of their game. On the other end, LSU has a similar advantage, but it is not as pronounced.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusions

Ugh again, too close to call for Tennessee getting to the line, and LSU could make some hay there.

Go Vols.

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