Author Archives: Will Shelton

It will not surprise you to find (via data from Sports Source Analytics) the Vols are still near the bottom in running the football in the first quarter: 46 carries for 74 yards, a robust 1.61 yards per carry. That first quarter average is 128th nationally (good news: Charlotte is 130th). The Vols are a not-great-but-not-terrible 78th nationally in rushing average overall (4.2 yards per carry); of note, that’s better than Auburn (4.17), among others. Tennessee averages 4.02 yards in the second quarter, 7.33 in the third (bolstered by Ty Chandler’s 81-yard touchdown), and back to 4.02 in the fourth. In our running theme (no pun intended) for this year, the ground game never achieves excellence, but becomes competent as the game goes on. But that is far from the truth in the first quarter.

When you look at each player’s overall stats, it seems more simple than it actually is: Ty Chandler has 40 carries for 247 yards (6.18 per), and Madre London has 36 for 205 (5.69). But Chandler had only four carries before getting hurt against West Virginia, and had a good-but-not-great 19-for-66 (3.47 per) against Florida. London had 11-for-66 against the Gators, but only six yards on three carries last week. Tim Jordan, who looked very much like the answer against West Virginia, has just 43 carries for 140 yards in the last four games. It’s tough when you’re trying to rotate carries among four backs. But none of them are getting the Vols off to a good start in the first quarter.

The Vols are also 24th nationally in carries on first down: 105 runs, 39 passes. If the desire is to make defenses expect the run early, it’s working fairly well when the Vols actually do throw it on first down: 28-of-39 for 407 yards (10.4 yards per attempt). A 71.8% completion percentage is 13th nationally on first down.

But a lot of the issues in the run game aren’t just about running early in the game or a series, but on third-and-short. Tennessee has repeatedly tried to muscle their way forward on 3rd-and-1, and the results haven’t been pretty. On 3rd-and-1-to-3, the Vols have 12 carries for 11 yards. Only five of those 12 runs have picked up the first down. I’ve found myself almost wishing for the Vols to be in 3rd-and-4 than 3rd-and-1, because they’ll at least give themselves more options. The numbers back this up too: on 3rd-and-4-to-6, the Vols have converted five first downs on nine passing attempts. Tennessee is more successful throwing the ball on third-and-medium than running it on third-and-short.

 

Last year my wife and I brought our firstborn home from the hospital the day Tennessee played Georgia, the best of all ways to not be thinking about the game. “Did we really fumble it right back to them? Hey, he peed on the floor!” But from there, I’d imagine your October and November with the Vols were a little like mine no matter what ages you had at home: outcomes a little blurry, details inconsequential, lots of losing and little hope.

Yesterday friends and family gathered round to celebrate our son’s first birthday in the morning, then watch the Georgia game at 3:30. It seemed like another well-timed teacher of perspective. And we were all, spoken or unspoken, afraid of the same thing happening to the Vols again. Not the result, which seemed automatic with Tennessee at +32.5. But the outcome: a we’re-so-bad-none-of-this-matters hopelessness.

Tennessee made it matter. Right now, that’s a win.

It wasn’t simply in beating Vegas or playing better than last year against this particular opponent. The 2017 version featured not only a shutout but, far worse, 2.73 yards per play from the Vol offense. This time around Tennessee averaged 4.54. Not great, but it had a pulse. As has been the case since the West Virginia game, this is a theme for 2018: far from excellent, but capable of competence (when not turning it over six times).

Heart failure was a major concern coming in: new coach not used to losing, brutal loss to your most relevant rival last week, players sent to the locker room, uh oh. We’ve been staring down the oncoming train of this particular gauntlet for a long time. If what happened last year happened again this year, we wouldn’t have liked it but we might’ve understood it. And, as was the case when the calendar turned to October last year, the rest of the season would have been about next season.

But Tennessee showed heart on both sides of the ball, particularly on defense. They got little help from an offense that ran only 42 plays before Jeremy Banks fumbled with less than four minutes to go. The Vols seem committed to running the football, even if they’re not running it particularly well: Jarrett Guarantano remains fourth among SEC quarterbacks in yards per attempt (8.6), but the Vols are still last in the league in attempts (21.2 per game). Tennessee runs it almost literally twice as much as they throw it (211-106).

And this answer, like many things with this team, may simply come back to what they believe about the offensive line. Guarantano stayed relatively clean on Saturday – another big win – but you still feel nervous every time we don’t run. The gameplan for a while felt like Lane Kiffin’s against Urban Meyer when the Vols were 30-point underdogs on the road in 2009, with a quarterback we thought was fragile behind patchwork offensive line. Tennessee leaned on its defense, which worked to prevent big plays, and took few chances on the offensive end. Keep it close, and keep everyone – players, fans, etc. – invested.

It worked, eventually, in 2009. And it seemed to work this week too.

And it’s really selling our defense short to say they just worked to prevent big plays. In the run game, if you take out Isaac Nauta’s 31-yard gift with our defense in pass coverage, Georgia averaged 4.4 yards per carry. The only defenses to hold them to less than that the last two years: Notre Dame, Auburn (the first time), and Alabama. It’s a full day even trying to slow down Georgia’s run game. The Vol defense put in a full day’s work.

Speaking of heart, you’ll probably see what you want to see out of this:

“We’ve got fight in us.”

Jeremy Pruitt was asked what he learned about his team today. His response evoked emotion we haven’t seen from the head coach since he arrived at Tennessee. #Vols pic.twitter.com/JRvjIcKVAK

— Marc Whiteman (@MarcWhiteman) September 29, 2018

…but regardless of whatever way you lean on coach emotion, etc., the Vols had already proven Pruitt’s point before he got choked up. I’m not in the locker room to see it behind the scenes, but you saw it on the field yesterday.

So far, the Vols are better than they were last year. That part you can back up statistically, but we’re aiming for a higher bar than that. Given the opportunity to write themselves off, or be written off by the number two team in the country, Tennessee’s heart is instead still beating. Six wins still feels like an uphill climb, but the Vols still have their hands on the rope. Just as important, the Vols are still relatively healthy. Brandon Kennedy’s loss was obviously unhelpful, and one hopes Marquez Callaway can get out of concussion protocol by the Auburn game. But on the whole, Tennessee seems largely intact in mind, body, and quarterback.

Alabama, of course, is still to come; we all know what we’re getting into there. But the rest feels a little less known today. Auburn, despite their persistence in the Top 10, could drift slowly toward “trap game” territory in the next two weeks. Kentucky is in the Top 15 in both the polls and S&P+. I don’t know.

I don’t know about Tennessee either. But on a day when many were worried about us being put out of our misery on the last weekend of September, the Vols showed signs of life. It’s enough to get us through the bye week, and send us to Auburn with a spark. I don’t know if it’ll catch fire. But I’m eager to find out. Hope remains valuable around these parts. And while it may have gone to Athens to die, it came back to Knoxville alive.

Go Vols.

(This is a real list!)

It’s not easy to measure progress when you’ve taken a pair of 26-point losses to teams you talked yourself into beating leading up to game week. It’s only Friday, but I don’t think many of us are talking ourselves into much against Georgia. But it’s also possible – especially after a six-turnover performance – to swing too hard the other way.

It may feel like baby steps, but so far this team does a couple things really well, especially compared to their predecessors.

Third Down Defense

Let’s start with the most straightforward way to understand it: the Vols allow a conversion on 24.5% of opponent attempts (stats from Sports Source Analytics). That’s currently sixth-best in the nation. Last year the Vols allowed conversions on 45.2% of opponent attempts, 113th nationally.

But there’s more. What caught my eye on this stat was Bill Connelly’s advanced statistical profiles, where Tennessee is currently first in the country in defending third-and-medium.

We charted every one of the 49 third downs against the Vol defense this season. Jeremy Pruitt’s troops have allowed a dozen conversions. Five of them were in the second half of the West Virginia game. Tennessee hasn’t been great at stopping third-and-short: teams are 6-of-9 when needing three yards or less on third down. The Vols are 83rd nationally in Connelly’s categorization of thid-and-short.

But once it gets to 3rd-and-4+, it’s been a very different story. The Vols have allowed first downs on just 6-of-40 (15%) attempts of 3rd-and-4+. One of those was in garbage time on the final drive last week.

Tennessee may not be built to handle third-and-short right now, but they’ve done an excellent job so far handling everything else, especially when not facing West Virginia’s offense.

Explosive Plays in the Passing Game

As you’ve probably heard, Tennessee already has more plays of 50+ yards (six) in four games than they had all of last season (four). Five of those have come via the passing game, plus Ty Chandler’s run against UTEP. Only Hawaii, with the benefit of an extra game in week zero, has more 50+ yard passing plays so far this year; the Vols are tied with five other teams for second nationally.

What’s most impressive about that: Tennessee has only attempted 85 passes this year, 115th nationally.

Here are the SEC leaders in adjusted completion percentage on throws 10+ yards downfield: pic.twitter.com/2tvNLuCg2N

— CFB Film Room (@CFBFilmRoom) September 27, 2018

The Vols do indeed run the ball a lot, and I worry about our quarterback getting hit every single time we don’t. But when he gets it off, Guarantano has been pretty good at getting the most out of his attempts. He is currently fourth among SEC quarterbacks and 20th nationally at 9.1 yards per attempt. The bad news: Jake Fromm is third (10.7), and Tua Tagovailoa is first at…12.9? Get out of here with that. (Fulmerized).

These numbers, like many other things for Tennessee, may go south the next few weeks. But in the first four games, we may have also seen enough to suggest some truth here that might show up in November. And they are significant steps of progress from last year, even in the middle of a frustrating start in the win column.

I don’t know if the Florida series just feels like it’s full of weirdness to us because they’ve won around three-out-of-four times we’ve faced each other since 1990 and, of course, all but one of them since 2004. I think about some of the ways we beat Kentucky over the years, games that felt like the right team winning to us but, I assume, incredibly cruel and unfortunate to them. And I hate that comparison, sharing Kentucky’s past but not their present.

But last night goes on a crowded list with the second half of ’95, first half of ’96, Alex Brown, Jabar Gaffney, fumbled snaps in the rain, Nathan Peterman, and everything that’s gone wrong in the last five years against this team. Tennessee lost a chance for its new coach to write a new chapter in this rivalry, instead taking a well-worn page from the past: Florida wins, something inexplicable happens to Tennessee.

No matter who you root for, consider the near-impossibility of Tennessee’s first 11 possessions ending without a punt or a touchdown, the two most likely outcomes of any drive. It felt a bit like the reverse Battle of Bristol: I’m quite sure Tennessee wasn’t actually 42 points better than Virginia Tech in the midst of their five fumbles that turned a 14-0 game into a 45-17 hole, but we were happy to oblige if they wanted to keep putting it on the ground. Last night Florida had three touchdown drives of less than 25 yards, and only one required more than 70 yards.

So yes, we know Florida can dominate Tennessee when the Vols turn it over six times. Did we learn anything else that could be useful going forward?

Pruitt’s Aggressiveness

One way the Vols attempted to write a new story in this rivalry, especially after erring on the conservative side under Butch Jones, was to be incredibly aggressive:

• 1Q 4th-and-4 at FLA 38 (14-0 FLA): Incomplete
• 2Q Onside Kick (14-3 FLA): Florida recovers
• 2Q 4th-and-1 at TEN 45 (23-3 FLA): 54-yard completion, fumbled out of the end zone for a touchback

It’s interesting to note that none of these decisions directly hurt the Vols. Florida fumbled immediately following the failed fourth down, the Gators went three-and-out after the onside kick (but did pin the Vols deep for a safety), and obviously the fumble through the end zone was the equivalent of a punt doing the same. Tennessee didn’t lose because they were overly aggressive, but they failed to make those aggressive choices count.

What did those decisions tell us about Jeremy Pruitt? Time will tell if that was big-game aggressiveness or something we can expect from him every week. But, if anything can be refreshing in a six-turnover loss, that was. His decision to go for two and try another onside kick when the Vols cut it to 19 with five minutes to go falls in line here too, and I thought this…

Pruitt said he called goal line defense on the final long TD run. Wanted to give his team a chance to try and win. “We knew if they broke the line, they were going to score. … What’s the difference in 40 and 47?”

— David Ubben (@davidubben) September 23, 2018

…was straight out of Madden. We’ll always be quick to praise the new guy for not being what the guy who got fired was. But I like having a coach who’d rather try every last thing to win and lose by 26 than worry about how that might make him look and settle for losing by 19.

Just Because It’s Not Shotgun…

Much the same as the West Virginia game, the Vols put themselves in bad situations on third down for much of the first quarter. For the second week in a row, Tennessee is ranked 129th nationally in yards per carry in the first quarter (via Sports Source Analytics).

But once the Vols started getting their act together on first and second down, they still couldn’t get it done on third-and-short. Tennessee had to settle for a 32-yard field goal that cut it to 14-3 when Ty Chandler was stuffed on 3rd-and-1. Two cracks at coming off their own two yard line ended in a safety. The long pass to Austin Pope happened because Madre London was denied on 3rd-and-1. And on Tennessee’s first touchdown drive, the Vols had 1st-and-goal at the 4 and went no gain, incomplete, pass interference, one yard, no gain, and finally a one yard touchdown on 3rd-and-goal at the one.

I like seeing the Vols in the I-formation instead of shotgun too, but it hasn’t made us much more fruitful in short yardage. If Tennessee can’t line up and get a yard against the Gators, they almost certainly won’t the next three times out. Maybe this particular unit can have more success in November, maybe not. But we simply do not block well enough to impose our will on third-and-short.

What Now?

The game and the opportunity in this rivalry were lost. But I think much of what we’re also feeling comes from who Tennessee plays next.

It’s just awfully tough to imagine Tennessee beating Georgia, Auburn, or Alabama (plus a bye week). Some will throw South Carolina in Columbia in there too. If that’s the case, you’re 2-6 with Charlotte and the usual SEC East November left, needing to win all four to get bowl eligible. Derek Dooley’s Vols did it in his first season, sparked by the switch to Tyler Bray. But they did not face anything as good as the 2018 versions of Kentucky, Missouri, and Vanderbilt appear to be. The Cats, in particular, are at this point almost the equal of Auburn in S&P+.

I’m an optimist by trade and design, and I’ll have us at around 4.25 wins when our weekly win total calculator comes out tomorrow. That’s depressing. We knew it would be more about progress than results this year, but I know we hoped that would be the difference between 5-7 and 6-6. Instead, it’s trying to find anything positive from a six turnover performance against our most relevant rival while our secondary rivals look like the very best versions of themselves. This is bad, it might be very bad, and it might be somewhere between a long and very long time before we’re something more.

This is, in some ways, both the challenge and the opportunity now before Jeremy Pruitt. Expectations are lower than ever. Can he keep his team together over the next few weeks? Can they still be better, regardless of result, in November than they are in September? Can he rally these guys around the idea that, nevermind Georgia or Alabama, nobody believes they can win six games?

The long-term answer is in recruiting, where the Vols are currently fine despite a bad on-field impression on a lot of high-level prospects last night. Pruitt’s boss, who knows both the value of recruiting at Tennessee and the pain of impossible things happening to you against the Gators, can be helpful in reminding us all to keep pulling in the same direction even if we’re not as strong as we thought we were at first.

Objectively, the Vols are 59th in S&P+ right now. Last year they finished 107th. That metric currently projects the Vols to lose by 27, 18, and 27 in their next three games. Like it or not, progress is going to feel like the pursuit of moral victories for a minute here. But last year Quinten Dormady lost to Georgia by 41 and Jarrett Guarantano to Alabama by 38, both averaging less than three yards per play.

There’s only one way to feel after losing to Florida like that, and we know it well. There are few warm fuzzies available over the next few weeks, and we knew that coming in. So it may not be a lot of fun for now. But it doesn’t mean the Vols haven’t made baby steps of progress already. And it doesn’t mean there isn’t progress available every week, if Pruitt can keep this team together and moving forward. I’m sure this wasn’t the start he envisioned, especially the way the game went last night. We lost an opportunity. What will we find in the next few weeks?

In spite of everything – coaching changes, 4-8, a 26-point loss to West Virginia, Florida’s loss to Kentucky – this still feels like the Friday morning of Florida week is supposed to feel. The slow burn of anticipation has taken us to the end of the work week and, for the first time since 2012, it will build to the evening hours on Saturday.

The stakes have changed, not just from the 90’s but two years ago, when ducks pulled trucks and you knew the division was on the line. Now those same two teams are fighting for the first step of a rebuild. There are tickets available in the last ten rows of the upper deck, where the Gators would normally reside, though their $105 face value may be keeping some people away. But this is still Friday, still Florida week, and I’d imagine it will feel just right on Saturday night too.

The close proximity of Tennessee and Florida the last few years, both head-to-head and in the overall health of their respective programs, is in some ways progress for the Vols, even though we only beat them once. In the last few years, the sense of dread that comes with an 11-year losing streak shifted: once we feared Florida doing bad things to us, then we feared us doing bad things to ourselves.

But with a new coach and new athletic director (who 26 years ago knew a thing or two about beating Florida on your first try), there’s an opportunity for separation: from the past and, in a first, small step, from the Gators.

The foundation for such a thing was indeed built brick-by-brick. But often in the last four years, the Vols turned into Clark Griswold in critical moments when they faced the Gators.

Tennessee has out-gained Florida four years in a row. In every one of those games, the turnover margin was even. And the Vols won the vaunted rushing battle the last three years.

And yet, the Gators won three of those four and had a 21-0 lead in the other.

What felt like weirdness in the red zone in 2014 and an extraordinary set of bad things happening in 2015 ceased to be coincidence when both of them happened in this game last year. When we suggest the Vols have been better than Florida the last four years head-to-head, the numbers back it up. And a piece from Will Sammon in The Athletic this week pointed out the Vols have recruited slightly better than the Gators from 2015-18 too.

There’s much more to beating Florida than changing the head coach; obviously there’s a new man on the other sideline too. But if there is confidence to be found on either sideline, there are Tennessee players who have to know they should’ve had this team the last few years. And there are still a few guys on this team – Jauan Jennings, Chance Hall, Drew Richmond, and Todd Kelly, Jr., among others – who know what it’s like to play for and make the breaks against this Florida team in victory. And any “we always beat these guys” vibes on the other bench have to be a bit tainted, having already lost to a team they always beat for three decades.

For Jeremy Pruitt, who earned plenty of confidence as a defensive coordinator, one of the most important issues in his first year is getting his team to believe: not just in him, but in themselves. That will be a tougher task in the next few weeks. But tomorrow night – surrounded by champions past, and inspired by the pain and knowledge of what should have been the last four years – the Vols can take a big step forward, in confidence and result.

This is a big one; it always will be. But after years of finding a way to lose, a new coach can inspire confidence by getting his team to play with it.

#DontLetUp

 

It seems fair to say Tennessee isn’t asking Jarrett Guarantano to do too much so far. He only attempted 25 passes despite trailing all day against West Virginia. And the Vols didn’t seek to step on the gas to create additional separation from UTEP on the scoreboard, thus Guarantano attempted only 16 passes. His 54 attempts through three weeks rank 11th in the SEC, ahead of only the starters from Alabama, Georgia, and Mississippi State, whose assistance hasn’t been required much beyond halftime.

But in those 54 attempts, however restrained the offense may or may not have been…Guarantano has been pretty good.

He’s hit on 39 of them, for a 72.2% completion percentage. That’s 10th nationally through three weeks. His 9.1 yards per attempt are tied for 22nd nationally. And the Vols are one of just 14 teams yet to throw an interception.

It’s one game against an FCS foe, one game against what may be the worst team in FBS, and one against a West Virginia team not known for its defense. But what he’s been asked to do, he’s done well.

How much more will the Vols ask of him this week?

The coaches change, but the first rule of Tennessee-Florida remains: the team that runs the ball best has the best chance to win. The best chance doesn’t guarantee victory – the Vols have won the rushing battle three years in a row now – but it’s still the best philosophy. And it’s one Jeremy Pruitt should enjoy.

Tennessee has run the ball 132 times this year to Guarantano’s 54 passes (plus six for Keller Chryst). So far they’ve kept the ball on the ground 68.8% of the time. It sounds like a winning formula in this series…but the results have been mixed thus far. The Vols are clearly more explosive this year: after just 46 runs of 10+ yards and 13 of 20+ yards last season, Tennessee has 21 and six, respectively, in 2018.

But slow starts are both perception and reality. What do we make of this:

• 1st Quarter: 28 carries, 35 yards, 1.6 ypc (129th nationally)
• 1st Half: 69 carries, 237 yards, 3.4 ypc (97th nationally)
• 2nd Half: 63 carries, 427 yards, 6.8 ypc (9th nationally)

(Stats from Sports Source Analytics)

Are the Vols simply wearing down lower-level competition as the game goes on? Ty Chandler’s 81-yard run in the third quarter certainly helps, and that first series against West Virginia certainly hurt the first quarter numbers. But Tennessee clearly has to get off to a better start.

And this is where the rubber will meet the road for Jeremy Pruitt and Tyson Helton: how long do you stay patient with the ground game against the Gators? How much more do you give Guarantano to do instead?

Of his 54 passes, I can’t remember many (if any) that were in danger of being intercepted. The Vols will have to take more chances. How this new staff manages risk will matter a lot; it’ll feel like even more to us watching after the way the previous staff often failed to manage it well. Tennessee is built on Maxim #1, and Jeremy Pruitt seems like a guy who likes coaching the team that makes the fewest mistakes. But it takes all seven maxims to beat the Gators. How the new coach plays for and makes the breaks will go a long way Saturday night.

 

Two weeks into the season, our top two thoughts about the SEC East remain unchanged:

• Georgia is waaaaaaayyyyyyy better than everyone else; the Vols shouldn’t compare themselves to UGA right now.
• There’s little separation between the rest of the division; the Vols may have finished last in 2017, but how they do against the non-UGA East is still a good barometer in 2018.

South Carolina was the most popular choice to come in second; they got dusted by Georgia at home, trailing 41-10 until a late touchdown trimmed the final margin to 24. And on the other end of the spectrum, Kentucky beat Florida – in Gainesville – for the first time in more than three decades.

There’s an anything-can-happen feel to the rest of the division behind the Dawgs. Case in point: look who’s leading the non-UGA pack in S&P+ through two weeks:

Team	S&P+	FPI
Missouri	16	27
Vanderbilt	23	53
Kentucky	35	47
South Carolina	43	33
Florida	46	32
Tennessee	57	61

Wyoming-over-Missouri was a trendy preseason pick; the Tigers routed the Cowboys 40-13 and now face a suddenly 0-2 Purdue team this week. And if your reflex is still to pick against Vanderbilt no matter what, you paid dearly for it the first two weeks: 35-7 over MTSU, 41-10 over Nevada.

These numbers will be tested over the next two weeks. Vanderbilt is in South Bend Saturday afternoon, Missouri hosts Georgia next week. We’ll see how good those two are against top-level competition. But the anything-can-happen-ness among the rest of the division is still good news for a Tennessee team looking to move its way up the ladder.

Recruiting is still the long-term solution, and Vanderbilt, Kentucky, and Missouri are still not threats there. The Vols (11th) have the lead on South Carolina (16th) and Florida (18th) in the 247 Composite Rankings, but the Gators (53.3%) and Gamecocks (44.4%) now lead the Vols (40%) in blue chip ratio. Without the on-field results, it will be difficult for Jeremy Pruitt and staff to separate themselves from Muschamp and Mullen in recruiting.

That makes whatever separation can be earned on the field even more important. Thus Tennessee’s five most important games are all against the non-UGA SEC East, all of them some version of up for grabs. The Vols get one more tune-up this week, then the Gators, then three straight “brace yourself” opponents with a bye week thrown in for good measure. But whatever happens there or even against Florida, four of those most important games are in the last five down the stretch (plus Charlotte). What happens against those big rivals in the middle may feel like it carries more weight, but it may be what the Vols can do against their secondary rivals from the SEC East down the stretch that becomes the best sign of progress. For Tennessee to be successful, historically speaking, it has to separate itself from Kentucky, Vanderbilt, and South Carolina. The Vols can’t allow those secondary rivalries to become actual rivalries in the long-term.

In the short-term, though, we should be in for interesting outcomes when these six teams face each other.

 

History suggested Tyson Helton would change the Vol passing attack, and we’ve seen it already in the first two games. Butch Jones’ offense targeted running backs more than any team in the SEC, essentially making the tailback the number three receiver. Not only has that changed dramatically in Helton’s offense – two catches for Tim Jordan, one for Jeremy Banks – a number one receiver has emerged in ways it never did in the last five years.

Marquez Callaway has 11 catches for 141 yards in the first two games. At this pace he’ll eclipse last season’s total – when he was the number one receiver in theory – by the end of the month (24 catches for 406 yards). And through the first two games, no other Vol has more than four receptions (Josh Palmer and Jordan Murphy).

We’ll see what happens with Jauan Jennings, the presumed top target going into last season and even this one by some. But so far, Callaway is the clear preference of Jarrett Guarantano. Sports Source Analytics has Callaway with seven catches for 115 yards (29th nationally) on first down, plus three for 15 and a pair of first downs on third down. The early returns show Callaway targeted early and often.

Callaway has 36.7% of Tennessee’s total receptions and 44% among wide receivers. We never saw percentages like those under Butch Jones:

Year	Receiver #1	Catches	Receiver #2	Catches
2017	Brandon Johnson	37	Marquez Callaway	24
2016	Josh Malone	50	Jauan Jennings	40
2015	Von Pearson	38	Josh Malone	31
2014	Pig Howard	54	Von Pearson	38
2013	Pig Howard	44	Marquez North	38

(Von Pearson played only 11 games in 2014)

You have to go back to the last two years under Derek Dooley to find true number one targets. Da’Rick Rogers easily stood out in 2011: 67 catches for 1,040 yards and nine touchdowns. The following year we remember Cordarrelle Patterson fondly, but many of his highlights were in the return game and on carries. Justin Hunter was easily the top target in the passing game with 73 catches for 1,083 yards to 46 for 778 for Patterson.

I’m not sure if this offense is built for Callaway to accumulate those kind of numbers. But he is clearly the number one option in an offense that’s going to receivers far more often than we’re used to. It’ll be interesting to see how his numbers change as defenses adjust to stop him, and if Guarantano can establish the same kind of rhythm with someone else. But through two games, Callaway is on track to be the kind of top target we haven’t seen in a long time.

 

When Derek Dooley was taking his first steps as Tennessee’s coach, the Vols faced an elite Oregon team in week two. Tennessee led 13-3 early and was still alive midway through the third quarter, down 20-13 but driving into Duck territory. Then Matt Simms was pick-sixed, and the floodgates opened: 21 additional fourth quarter points from Oregon turned a competitive game at halftime into a 35-point blowout.

Dooley noted Tennessee’s inability to handle adversity in the postgame: “I was real disappointed from then on (the pick six) with how we competed. You would have thought we were down 40 (instead of 14).” This became a recurring theme with Dooley’s teams: the head coach would (correctly) point out that they didn’t handle adversity well, while never making successful adjustments to help them do just that. The Vols folded against Florida two years later in much the same fashion, and Dooley was on the way out.

In his second full week on the job, Jeremy Pruitt noted Tennessee’s struggles when faced with adversity against West Virginia, specifically when getting denied thrice at the goal line in the second quarter as the offense was coming off the field on 4th-and-1 almost as a reflex. Even without being overly critical of the previous administration, it’s fair to say the Vols need to build confidence after a 4-8 season and a steep fall from the Top 10 in mid-October the year before. We all wanted to believe the new staff could make some of that happen right away; I’d imagine the players hoped for the same thing. Pruitt has the rings as a coordinator to sell that argument.

When it didn’t happen, and the Vols lost by 26 to West Virginia instead, players and fans alike had to reset their baseline. It was just one data point – and hey, maybe West Virginia will turn out to have as much in common with 2010 Oregon as possible – but it was the first impression, and it didn’t inspire as much confidence as we were wishing for.

Today was the second data point. And while you won’t be talking about what the Vols did against ETSU when the season is over, today was important in beginning to rebuild that confidence. How did the Vols do?

Defensively, very well. ETSU gained only 194 yards on 58 snaps (3.34 yards per play) and were just 2-of-15 on third down. The Vols grabbed a pair of interceptions, a particularly welcome sight for freshman Bryce Thompson after facing West Virginia the week before. Tennessee still struggled to get pressure on the quarterback, but gave hope that what we saw last week had plenty to do with the opponent. As I write, Will Grier is 20-of-25 for 292 yards and three touchdowns against Youngstown State.

Jarrett Guarantano was sharp again: 8-of-13 for 154 yards, hitting a couple of deep balls to Josh Palmer and Marquez Callaway. The latter followed up his 6-for-63 performance from last week with 5-for-78. Last year only two Vol receivers (Callaway and Brandon Johnson) finished the year with more than 200 yards; Callaway is off to another strong start and is fast establishing himself as Tennessee’s top target.

The running backs all had individual moments that popped. But the Vols weren’t as effective as you’d like against FCS competition: Tim Jordan (15-for-65) and Jeremy Banks (13-for-62) were okay, but the run blocking didn’t inspire the confidence we’re looking for.

The good news: UTEP is next, 0-12 last year and a 30-10 victim to FCS Northern Arizona last week. There’s more confidence to be built and more fine-tuning the Vols will need to face the Gators.

One early difference between Pruitt and Dooley (and Butch): the new guy admitted his own mistakes from last week, noting poor clock management at the end of the second quarter gave West Virginia a shot at three more points. Confidence is only, always earned. The new coach is doing it one play at a time too.