Author Archives: Will Shelton

Tennessee vs Kansas: Here’s Our Chance

One year ago today, Tennessee beat #18 Purdue in the Battle 4 Atlantis. It was, at the time, an important win to get Tennessee a shot at Villanova and bolster their RPI for what we thought would be a run at the bubble.

One year later, #5 Tennessee will face #2 Kansas on Friday night.

There’s more, of course: #3 Gonzaga’s win over #1 Duke could propel the Bulldogs to the top of the polls, and they’ll face the Vols on December 9. They’ve got work to do between now and then, dates with Creighton and Washington. The Vols shouldn’t be threatened by Eastern Kentucky and Texas A&M Corpus Christi. There’s a chance Gonzaga and Tennessee could meet as #1 and #2.

All that’s down the road. The opportunity with Kansas is enough for one day.

The difference in Tennessee then and now was particularly striking against Louisville. The Vols, once the hunters, watched Louisville play that role against them really well for most of the game. Jeff Greer’s game story from The Athletic speaks of the Cardinals in language that fit Tennessee for years, and speaks of the Vols in terms we haven’t heard since Bruce Pearl’s days. Louisville was within one with less than nine minutes to play.

And then the Vols unleashed the kind of run a Top 5 team makes. A 14-0 run over the span of four minutes included only one point from Grant Williams, who finished with 24 total. Admiral Schofield did plenty of damage in that span though, finishing with 20 points. The Vols survived 11 Louisville threes, missed nine free throws, and still won by 11 while scoring 92 points. Through increasing degrees of difficulty, the Vols have ultimately handled Louisiana, Georgia Tech, and Louisville. Now it’s the boss level.

The Jayhawks beat Duke in the Elite Eight last year before falling to Villanova in the Final Four. Seven-footer Udoka Azubuike is back, currently 10th in the KenPom Player of the Year standings. Dedric Lawson, a 6’9″ Memphis transfer, is fourth.

Grant Williams is first.

The first question for any Vol opponent – “Does this team have anyone who can guard Grant Williams?” – should be an affirmative this time. Louisville had no answers, but I’d expect more from the Jayhawks. Azubuike sends back 12.8% of the shots he faces, and Lawson will bang in there as well. He was a volume scorer at Memphis, finishing in the top six among AAC players in his percentage of total team shots taken in both 2016 and 2017. That shouldn’t be as necessary at Kansas, but he’s averaging 16.3 points and 9.8 rebounds in the early going. Lagerald Vick leads the team in scoring with 20.8 points in 35.3 minutes, and is a scorching 18-of-29 from the arc so far this year.

Kansas has been giving up a really high percentage from the arc and winning anyway. Michigan State hit 12-of-23 (53.3%), and Marquette was 14-of-31 (45.2%). Neither was enough against the Jayhawks: the Spartans were undone by 18 turnovers, Marquette by only attempting five free throws. And on the other end, Kansas has shot well too: 10-of-23 (43.5%) against Michigan State, 5-of-10 (50%) last night, plus 12-of-19 (63.2%) against Vermont. And they don’t turn it over, with just 48 in four games despite playing a Top 50 pace.

The Jayhawks also take away almost any opportunity for an offensive rebound. In four games they’ve only surrendered 27 total offensive boards; that’s the eighth best percentage in the country. The Vols will need to be good on their first shot.

The good news: the Vols are once again one of the best teams in the nation in creating good shots via assist percentage. It’s currently at 70.1%, fourth in the nation, leading to the Vols shooting 51.7% from the floor, 18th nationally in the early going. In better news, the Vols are shooting 57.6% from two, 52nd nationally. Last year: 47.3%, 293rd nationally. It’s early. But shooting better from inside the arc was the most obvious place the Vols could improve from last year, and so far, so good.

They’ll need to be good against Kansas. Tennessee has lived on offensive rebounds in the past, but that may be a luxury they can’t afford against the Jayhawks. This could be an excellent test of how much Tennessee’s best basketball is worth; they should need every bit of it to win, but the prize for winning could be a shot at number one.

It’s the late shift: 9:00 PM ET, ESPN2. Go Vols.

 

Tennessee vs Louisville Preview

The one good thing about your rival being at the peak of their powers is the reward for beating them. And when your rival is operating at the peak of their powers with a head coach that’s especially fun to hate, bonus points.

Louisville is certainly not Tennessee’s rival – the Vols won the first six meetings from 1913-1922, and the Cardinals have won 12 of the other 13 since – but Rick Pitino used to be. He went 14-3 against the Vols at Kentucky, winning the last nine in a row by an average of 25 points. Those nine games were my middle and high school days, and those blowouts gave me a significant amount of disdain for Pitino. But then he left for my beloved Boston Celtics; it was an odd feeling but, hey, the way he dominated at UK, surely he’ll bring championships back to Boston, right?

Nope: 36-46, 19-31 in the shortened 1999 season, 35-47, then fired after a 12-22 start. Larry Bird wasn’t walking through that door, but half the guys who played at Kentucky were.

Pitino went to Louisville, which had a four-year home-and-home agreement with Buzz Peterson’s Vols. And…one-point loss, three-point loss, three-point loss, blow out. Three years later the most successful Tennessee team in program history went to the Sweet 16, ran into Louisville as a three-seed…and lost by 19.

All of that to say this: no individual has done more damage with less return to more teams that I care about than Rick Pitino. And I’m mad he’s not on the sideline to get beat tonight.

Instead it’s Chris Mack, a great coach who made four Sweet 16’s and an Elite Eight in nine years at Xavier, plus won the Big East outright over Villanova last year. It’s been a minute since we’ve seen Louisville on the national stage for something other than Pitino and drama: after going Final Four, National Champs, Sweet 16, Elite Eight from 2012-15, the Cardinals were ineligible in 2016, got bounced in the second round in 2017, and fell to the NIT during their tumultuous 2018.

A 9-9 finish in the ACC is still nothing to sneeze at; the Cardinals finished 38th in KenPom but graduated their starting point guard and lost three others early to the NBA. They’ve played a lot of no one in their 3-0 start – Nicholls State, Southern, and Vermont – but do jump out at you statistically in a couple of ways.

The Cardinals are fifth nationally in effective field goal percentage and first in the country in free throw rate. In the opener against Nicholls, Louisville went 42-of-55 (!!!!!!) at the line. Nicholls went 12-of-16. In a 50-point win over Southern, they were 31-of-39. Against Vermont, 26-of-33. The Cardinals are 27th nationally in free throws attempted and 21 of the teams ahead of them have played at least five games; Louisville has played three.

So yeah, these dudes get to the line. Jordan Nwora (6’7″) averages 18-6, V.J. King (6’6″) averages 11-4, and Akoy Agau (6’8″) averages 7-7. Throw in 6’11” Malik Williams, and you’ve got plenty of length to go around in the rotation, plus a really hot shooting guard in Darius Perry. It looks like a Pitino team. The good news: Tennessee, so far, has been much better at defending without fouling this year. Their 50 personal fouls on the season rank 327th in the nation.

The good guys have been playing their starting five a bunch of minutes early: between 28.6 for Kyle Alexander and 33.7 for Admiral Schofield. Fulkerson and Pons have been the go-to’s off the bench, but it’ll be interesting to see how Lamonte Turner factors into the equation in his first game back.

Of course, Kansas is out there waiting. There’s a scenario here where the Vols could sweep the week and find themselves ranked second in the nation next week, behind the winner of Duke and, I’m assuming, Gonzaga in Maui. The Vols are currently ranked fifth and could/should get a shot at the #2 Jayhawks on Friday. Virginia is at #4, but their Battle 4 Atlantis field isn’t as strong this year, with only #25 Wisconsin ranked in the rest of the bracket.

That’s all getting ahead of ourselves, but when you’re ranked this high that’s what Thanksgiving basketball is all about: let’s see what we’ve got against the best of the best and file it away for March. The Vols are certainly playing to win the SEC again, but also to get as far up the bracket as possible. A shot at Kansas lets you take your temperature; beating the Jayhawks allows you to stay in the top-line national conversation.

But to get there, we’ll have to go through Louisville first. 5:00 PM ET, ESPN2. Happy Thanksgiving.

 

Pace and Space and Total Plays

Two years ago Tennessee beat Missouri 63-37, part of a sterling November performance for Josh Dobbs and the Vol offense. Tennessee led the nation in yards per play that month (stats via SportSource Analytics), averaging 8.96 per snap against Tennessee Tech, Kentucky, Missouri, and Vanderbilt. The next-closest team in November was Colorado State at 8.51. It was incredibly impressive.

But against Missouri, some of the post-game press went to what the Tigers did against the Vol defense: 740 yards! 420 on the ground! Oh the humanity!

It was a huge day for the Tigers…mostly because they ran 110 plays.

Mizzou’s 6.73 yards per play that day certainly didn’t represent a great effort by Bob Shoop’s unit. But Texas A&M, Alabama, Kentucky, and Vanderbilt were all more successful per-play against the Vol defense. They just didn’t snap it 110 times while giving up 63 points in just 67 plays on the other end.

Much has changed for Tennessee since then, but not a whole lot for Missouri. Derek Dooley now calls the plays, but the Tigers still love to get up and go. And this is the biggest difference between these two teams: Missouri has run 776 plays, eighth nationally among teams playing 10 games or fewer so far, and the fastest pace in the SEC. Tennessee has run 620 plays, fourth-slowest nationally among teams playing 10 games or more, and dead last in the SEC. Missouri essentially averages two whole drives more than Tennessee per game.

Missouri isn’t so much explosive as they are relentless. In their advanced statistical profile from Bill Connelly, the Tiger offense ranks only 98th in explosiveness but 16th in efficiency. For a team running more plays than almost anyone else, the Tigers are only fifth in the SEC in gains of 10+ yards on the year. Here they have a clear advantage on the Vols, who rank 12th in the league. But when you start increasing the denomination, the gap narrows quickly.

MIZ UT
10+ 148 122
20+ 54 45
30+ 28 24
40+ 18 12
50+ 7 7

With the Tigers averaging 15+ snaps a game more than Tennessee, you would expect these differences to be greater. But Missouri hasn’t been beating people with sheer explosiveness. It’s instead an efficient, relentless offense that’s been good at creating more chances and making the most of them.

Tennessee, on the other hand, is more explosive than we give it credit for because it runs so few plays. We looked at this in-depth after the Charlotte win – Tennessee’s pace of 62 plays per game is still the second-slowest of the post-Fulmer era, bested only by last year at 61 because the offense struggled so much it couldn’t stay on the field. This team is much more deliberate about its pace, averaging 31:02 in time of possession, nearly three minutes more than last season. No doubt the Vols will look to do that again on Saturday, seeking to limit Missouri’s chances. This is exactly what Kentucky did, holding the Tigers to 62 plays. Only two of Kentucky’s five punts in that game came via three-and-outs. The Cats weren’t overly efficient – 3-of-14 on third down, 0-for-3 on fourth down – but they did a good enough job keeping the chains moving to limit Missouri’s chances.

For Tennessee’s offense, the formula for success here is a familiar one: make it count on third down, and sprinkle in enough big plays. I’m not as worried about Missouri decimating Tennessee’s defense over the top as I am about the Tigers simply eating it up one play at a time. When the Vols did well against Kentucky’s offense last week, they did well on first down and put the Cats in situations they didn’t want to be in. There are fewer situations the Tigers don’t want to be in. But I think this will be less about explosive plays allowed, and more about limiting Missouri’s overall chances by way of Tennessee’s own efficiency.

 

Tennessee vs Georgia Tech Preview

Two big truths from Tennessee’s last outing against Louisiana: one, “Does this team have anyone who can guard Grant Williams?” is still the first question to ask. When the answer is no, you get Friday’s performance: 31 points and 7 rebounds made Williams #2 in the early KenPom Player of the Year standings. (Zion Williamson is third, for what it’s worth.)

But we already knew about him. The bigger news: as we speculated in our season preview, the Vols gave some of the minutes that went to James Daniel last year to Yves Pons. Then they put the 6’6″ Pons on Louisiana’s point guard. And it worked.

Aside from all the excitement about what Pons’ athleticism can do on the offensive end, if he can give the Vols quality bench minutes while harassing the other team’s point guard? That levels up an already-great Tennessee defense. It’s early, but it was a very encouraging sign. We’ll get our chance to see more against major conference competition now: Georgia Tech, then Louisville, with #1 Kansas lurking.

First, Georgia Tech. A four-year series with the Yellow Jackets comes to an end tonight. Rick Barnes’ first team fell by two points in his second game, victimized by a 35/27/53 shooting line (FG/3P/FT%). One of the earliest signs of what could be under Barnes was the second game with the Yellow Jackets: after near misses against Wisconsin and Oregon in Maui, the Vols obliterated Georgia Tech 81-58 in Knoxville. Tennessee’s leading scorers that day were a freshman named Grant Williams and point guard Shembari Phillips, who eventually transferred to…Georgia Tech. He had to sit out last year, when the Vols won 77-70 in Atlanta behind 24 off the bench from Lamonte Turner. But he started GT’s season opener against Lamar, scoring 10 points with four assists and three steals in an 88-69 win.

Josh Pastner’s crew started ACC play 3-1 last year with wins over Miami and Notre Dame. They were still 11-11 (4-5) at the end of January. Then they lost seven straight, six by double digits. A first round exit in the ACC Tournament made them 13-19 (6-12) on the season, a disappointing end after an NIT runner-up finish the year before.

Josh Okogie is now a Minnesota Timberwolf, but the Yellow Jackets bring back guards Brandon Alston and Jose Alvarado to team with Phillips in the back court. Alvarado excelled in stealing the ball last season, finishing 131st nationally in steal percentage.

What to know about tonight’s match-up:

  • This was simply a bad shooting team last year. Georgia Tech finished 283rd in FG% and 325th in three point percentage (31.8%). Alvarado is their best returning shooter from the arc and he hit only 37%.
  • Last year Georgia Tech’s best basketball was about defending inside the arc. The Yellow Jackets surrendered just 45.4% from two, 24th nationally. They finished 23rd in blocked shots; 6’10” Sylvester Ogbonda looks to be the primary threat there, who played sparingly last year due to injuries. By contrast, teams splashed 37.9% from behind the arc against the Yellow Jackets last year, 320th nationally. The Vols are already good at creating open threes, but it could be an even easier task tonight.
  • A patient pace? Last year Georgia Tech was 277th in tempo, almost even with the Vols at 282nd. Tennessee looked plenty good against Louisiana, who loves to go up-tempo. The Yellow Jackets will be a good early test to see if the Vols want to go any faster this season against a team that won’t encourage them to do so. We know the Vols can win in a number of different ways. Let’s see if they prefer to speed Georgia Tech up just a bit.

It’s a late start: 9:00 PM ET on ESPN2. Last chance to catch the Vols before they’re in New York for Thanksgiving next week.

 

Sunday Stats: Vols & Guarantano Moving Up

Tennessee made the third-biggest move of the week in S&P+, up a dozen spots from 82nd to 70th overall (shout out to Minnesota’s 41-10 beat down of Purdue, leaping 23 spots). The bad news: Missouri is a Top 25 team in S&P+. The Tigers actually fell three spots after a narrow victory over Vanderbilt, but are 23rd in the S&P+ rankings and would be favored by about a touchdown on the Vols. The good news: Vanderbilt is now the worst team in the league by the same metric.

Jarrett Guarantano in national rankings (via Sports Source Analytics): 27th in completion percentage, 24th in yards per attempt, and one of only eight quarterbacks with 200+ passing attempts and two or fewer interceptions. They showed this on the Jumbotron yesterday and I didn’t believe it, but it’s true (via Sports Reference): Guarantano’s career completion percentage of 63.8% is currently the best in school history. Daryl Dickey completed 63% of his passes, Peyton Manning 62.5%. Guarantano is at 65.1% in 2018; no Vol quarterback has hit that mark since Erik Ainge in 2006 (67%).

Things we’re still bad at: the Vols are 126th nationally in tackles for loss allowed, surrendering 8.3 per game. This is still a worse pace than last year (7.42 per game), but also still an improvement in terms of how far we’re going backward. Last year the Vols lost an average of 4.1 yards per TFL. This year it’s only an average of three yards lost. More runs for -1, fewer total disasters, etc.

Tennessee continues to be far more explosive this season. Last year the Vols had 38 plays of 20+ yards and 18 plays of 30+ yards. This year, through ten games: 45 plays of 20+ yards, 24 plays of 30+ yards.

Guarantano only has a pair of interceptions, but the Vols have now lost ten fumbles (and put it on the ground an additional five times). The ten fumbles lost is good for 111th nationally.

 

Tennessee 24 Kentucky 7 – Almost Always, Almost Never

Tennessee used three turnovers and an unreal third-and-long performance to beat Auburn. And despite a 21-9 third quarter lead, the right team won in Columbia two weeks ago with the Gamecocks dominant in their comeback. We assumed this – third downs, turnovers, etc. – was Tennessee’s specific path to victory, and it would take more talent for the Vols to be the right team.

Today, against the #11 Kentucky Wildcats, Tennessee was the right team.

It’s felt weird all week, Kentucky being favored and (rightly) ranked so high. And so now, on the heels of Tennessee’s 24-7 victory, there’s a tendency to treat it like business as usual; the Vols haven’t lost to Kentucky, ranked or otherwise, in Knoxville since 1984.

Let’s be clear: this was not business as usual. Not just for Jeremy Pruitt, but for the Vols in recent memory.

Two second half fumbles made the score look more respectable. But Tennessee gained 412 yards in 60 snaps, 6.86 yards per play. Kentucky gained 262 yards in 73 plays, 3.59 yards per play. That difference of 3.27 yards per play is the best for any Vol squad against power five competition since Lane Kiffin’s 2009 Vols beat Georgia 45-19 with a difference of 3.49 yards per play.

That day felt like validation. Again, it’s hard for a Tennessee coach to earn validation by beating Kentucky in football. But those Dawgs were unranked, and these Cats just outside the Top 10. It feels a bit like Tennessee’s blowout of #12 Northwestern in the Outback Bowl at the end of the 2015 season: the name can carry more weight than the ranking, so much so we might fail to appreciation the level of domination.

Much of the validation we’re looking for – as much as is available this year – is one more win away. Butch Jones beat a South Carolina team that finished fourth nationally, but a failure to earn bowl eligibility made that memory fade. As we’ve mentioned before, those Gamecocks might have been the best team Jones beat in his entire tenure. But at Tennessee, 5-7 is never going to qualify as a memorable year.

For today to last, the Vols need to win one more. But for now…today was quite memorable indeed.

Jarrett Guarantano averaged 9.9 yards per attempt and tear-dropped several balls, including the end-of-half hail mary. For a team that couldn’t run all year? Ty Chandler and Tim Jordan combined for 152 yards on 31 carries, plus 59 more for Jordan Murphy on the reverse. Two school records were tied or broken today, as Darrell Taylor notched four sacks and Guarantano continues to just not throw interceptions. He’s got a shot at Peyton Manning’s single-season record of four picks.

Tennessee wasn’t lucky or gimmicky. They simply dominated Kentucky on both sides of the ball, the type of performance that raises the ceiling of everyone involved.

Jeremy Pruitt now has two ranked wins in ten games. Lane Kiffin got one in his only season, Derek Dooley infamously went oh-for-three-years, and Butch Jones got the Gamecocks in year one and Georgia in year three. It’s a big deal.

Pruitt also got a schedule that some might rank the toughest in the nation through this week. Kentucky is the sixth Tennessee foe to have spent time in the Top 15 this season. The next two won’t make that list, but the Vols still need one of them to earn bowl eligibility. Missouri will present in many ways the opposite challenge from today; if Vanderbilt beats Ole Miss next week the Vols and ‘Dores could face each other with only one going through to the postseason.

There’s work left to do. But today was some of the best work we’ve seen in this decade. We almost always beat Kentucky. But we almost never beat a ranked team – or anyone – like this.

Go Vols.

 

Tennessee vs Louisiana Preview

It’s a progressive opening run for Tennessee: after a D-II blowout win, the Vols will be tested up the ladder by Louisiana tonight (120th in KenPom), Georgia Tech (90th) on Tuesday, then Louisville (66th) in the preseason NIT with a chance to face #1 Kansas.

The Ragin’ Cajuns went 27-7 last year, easily winning the Sun Belt at 16-2 before a 71-68 loss in the conference tournament sent them to the NIT. They lost in the opening round to LSU 84-76, book-ending their season with losses to SEC teams with a 94-76 beat down from Ole Miss in the opener.

Their leading scorer graduated, but there are plenty of points left to go around: Louisiana dropped 121 on the University of the Virgin Islands in the opener, with six players in double figures. They scored 100+ six times last year, and they dominated the rest of the Sun Belt on the glass, leading the league in offensive and defensive rebounding percentage (via KenPom). Overall the Cajuns were sixth nationally in offensive rebounding percentage, but they also graduated Bryce Washington (6’6″ 255) who led those efforts.

Louisiana started a three-forward lineup that went 6’6″, 6’6″, and 6’8″ in the opener. None have the bulk of Washington, but they also didn’t need many offensive rebounds while shooting 14-of-24 from the arc. Last year these guys were just really good at taking advantage everywhere: 76.1% from the free throw line and 46.4% from the floor. Their defense also seemed to chase people away from the three point line, giving up the 52nd-fewest threes attempted on the season despite playing at such a fast pace and playing from in front so often in the Sun Belt.

Jakeenan Grant also excelled as a shot blocker, sending back 9.1% of the shots against him, 39th nationally. Point guard Marcus Stroman was 14th nationally in assist rate (10 assists in the season opener), 80th in steal rate, and fourth nationally in free throw rate. He clearly makes things go for the rest of their offense. 

This is an experienced team that’s used to winning and each other. It’ll be interesting to see what Tennessee elects to do with a team that wants to score a bunch of points in an efficient manner. They were 55th nationally in KenPom offense last season, and could continue to excel even without their best scorer and rebounder from last season.

It’s a good early test for the Vols as they continue to build toward New York City. 7:00 PM, SEC Network.

 

Rotation, Rotation, Rotation

It all starts tonight for the #6 Vols. That’s the highest preseason ranking in program history, and better than any preseason ranking in football since 2005. These are good days. Enjoy them.

Lenoir-Rhyne shouldn’t find much to enjoy tonight, the Division II alma mater of Rick Barnes. As such, we shouldn’t learn a whole lot about the Vols, at least not until Friday when the Rajun Cajuns (a 27-7 NIT squad last year) come calling. More on them later. For now, in the absence of specific details to watch for against a D-II squad, here’s something to keep an eye on as the season unfolds:

So, what will this look like?

Last year the Vols had two primary lineups: one with Kyle Alexander and two of Bone, Bowden, and Turner. And one without Alexander where all three guards played together with Schofield and Williams. Lineups with some combination of those six players made up 42.9% of Tennessee’s minutes down the stretch of the season last year according to KenPom’s data.

Derrick Walker’s minutes varied by the opponent last year: before getting 18 minutes in Alexander’s absence against Loyola-Chicago, Walker played 9-22 minutes four times and 2-6 minutes three times in the last seven games. John Fulkerson got lots of run early, then played only a single minute (when Grant Williams fouled out?) against Georgia around three DNPs in late February/early March. Then he played 7-15 minutes in the last four games of the year.

The winner of the preseason chatter award on this team seems to be Yves Pons, who saw no SEC action until late January, then became a four minutes per game guy, then averaged seven per game in the last four. There are guard minutes up for grabs with James Daniel’s graduation. Yves isn’t going to run the point, but could he guard one on the other end for a few minutes?

The tenth man, if you believe freshman DJ Burns is headed for a redshirt, should be Jalen Johnson. He gave the Vols nine minutes in the win over Texas A&M, but otherwise wasn’t relied on for more than a couple minutes here and there in non-blowouts. Will Barnes utilize Johnson as a true member of the rotation, or will he just earn the same spot minutes?

Tennessee can be the same team in crunch time, both the with-and-without Kyle Alexander versions, if they choose to be. But in the other 36ish minutes, how will Barnes tinker? After needing 31+ minutes from Armani Moore, Kevin Punter, and Robert Hubbs his first two years, last season Barnes had the luxury of not needing any more than 28 minutes from Williams and Schofield. If the Vols go 10-deep, how consistent will the rotations be? Is there room for a breakthrough from Pons or Walker with so much traffic ahead of them? And how long will it take for this team to find its groove?

It all starts tonight.

The Better and Worse of Tennessee’s Deliberate Offense

Not everything is the best or worst you’ve ever seen, though it may feel like it in the moment. Such was the case for portions of the day against Charlotte, when the Vols ran it 26 times for 20 yards against a Conference USA opponent and scored only a single offensive touchdown. It wasn’t good at 4.09 yards per play, Tennessee’s lowest output of the season. But per play, it was better than three games from last season, including both the obvious (Georgia and Alabama) and the similar (Southern Miss, 3.56 in victory). On the year Tennessee averages 5.35 yards per play, a significant improvement on the 4.77 from last year. The running game yesterday certainly didn’t fit the “competent, not excellent” theme the Vols have been building from after last year, but both the result and the other phases of the game were acceptable.

At the end of this year, when the offense’s total yards are held against them (currently 333 per game, 313 against power five competition), one thing to keep in mind: Tennessee is playing at a much slower pace than in most of the last ten years. The Vols ran just 47 plays yesterday, the second time this year (46 at Georgia) we’ve been under 50 offensive snaps.

Tennessee averages 62.2 plays per game. The Vols were actually a tick slower last year at 61 plays per game. But in time of possession, you can see a significant difference between 2017 and 2018:

Year Plays YPP TOP
2018 62.2 5.35 31:09
2017 61 4.77 28:14
2016 68.9 6.44 27:24
2015 76 5.56 30:32
2014 75.2 4.93 30:14
2013 67 5.27 28:49
2012 74.2 6.42 26:58
2011 66 5.04 30:45
2010 63.6 5.72 28:52
2009 67.5 5.69 30:24

(Stats via Sports Source Analytics)

Last year the Vols ran essentially the same number of plays, but took almost three fewer minutes off the clock at a difference of nearly half a yard less per snap. There are several key differences from last year: one is third down conversions, the lifeblood of Tennessee’s offense. The Vols are converting 41.13% in 2018, 50th nationally, and have picked up 37 first downs through the air on third down, 11th nationally. Last year Tennessee converted just 30.67% of their third downs overall, 120th nationally.

How else are the Vols staying on the field? Take away the Florida game, and how many turnovers do you remember?

For the record: two against UTEP, the late fumble against Georgia, and the sack-fumble of Guarantano early in the Alabama game. Six against the Gators still stings, but the Vols have turned it over just four times in the other eight games. Last year, by contrast, the Vols had 18 turnovers in 12 games.

The narrative of Tennessee’s season will essentially be written by what they do in the next three games, and whether they can find two wins to get bowl eligible. But there’s enough data to this point to begin to establish Tennessee’s identity. The Vols continue to run on first down, even though they’re not very good at it (4.05 yards per carry, 101st nationally). Tennessee’s 69 passing attempts on first down rank 119th nationally, despite playing from behind so often in four of the five losses.

Part of me still believes the Vols are running it so often on first down to protect their defense: keep the clock moving, limit opportunities, etc. Tennessee is also snapping it deeper into the play clock than at any point under Butch Jones.

The real question here is how we’ll see the Vols open things up not just in the next three weeks, but next season when, in theory, all of the skill players could return along with Guarantano. Maybe the most surprising number of all: Guarantano’s 8.1 yards per attempt are on par with the best numbers of the post-Fulmer era (8.3 for Dobbs in 2016 and Tyler Bray’s last five games in 2010, 8.0 for Bray in 2011 and 2012). The Vols appear more than capable in the passing game, but remain deliberate in their commitment to the ground game, even when it’s not working well. Again, I have to believe this is in part to protect their defense.

So what now? The offensive staff put together a different, effective gameplan at South Carolina. Needing two wins in three games to get home, will we see more passing attempts? Will that lead to opposing offenses taking advantage of more shots against Tennessee’s defense? Tennessee’s plan beat Auburn and gave itself a chance against South Carolina. Is there anything left up the offense’s sleeve?

 

What Can Tennessee Do Better?

One of the greatest indicators of health for last year’s basketball team was the absence of any real blueprint for success. From our post on the eve of the NCAA Tournament:

  • The Vols are 19-3 when shooting at least 33.3% from three. But they also beat Florida, Texas A&M, and won at Rupp Arena shooting less than that.
  • The Vols are 17-0 when holding their opponent under 40% from the floor. But they also beat Kentucky twice when the Cats shot above that.
  • The Vols are 14-0 when assisting on at least 64% of their made shots. But they beat Purdue and Kentucky when assisting on less than half of their makes.
  • Grant Williams has scored 20+ eight times, but the Vols lost two of those games. Meanwhile one of their best performances of the year was at Mississippi State, when he had eight.
  • Admiral Schofield has scored 20+ seven times, but only two of those came against tournament teams (Kentucky twice). Meanwhile the Vols beat nine-seed NC State in the Bahamas when Schofield had zero.
  • The Vols are 13-2 when Jordan Bowden scores double digits, but just annihilated Arkansas in the SEC Tournament when he had two points.

(All these stats come from the fine folks at Sports Reference)

After two years of needing big numbers from Kevin Punter or Robert Hubbs in seasons that went south when their health did, the 2018 Vols were far more than one-dimensional. They beat big-name opponents in multiple ways, and finished in the Top 50 nationally in a variety of stats: three-point shooting percentage, free throw shooting percentage, offensive rebounding, assist percentage, blocked shot percentage, field goal percentage defense, and three-point percentage defense.

The Vols are well-rounded and get almost everyone back. They’re defending SEC Champions with the highest preseason ranking in program history. Things look really good.

How can the Vols be even better?

Two-Point Field Goal Percentage

Last year only two tournament teams – not at-large teams, but the entire field of 68 – had a worse shooting percentage inside the arc than Tennessee: 16-seed Radford (shout out to my southwest Virginia neighbors), and 11-seed Syracuse who played in the First Four. The Vols made 47.3% of their shots from two, 278th nationally.

Kyle Alexander is tremendous at this, ranking 18th nationally on shooting percentage inside the arc at 67.9%. The rest of the Vols? Not so much.

The short version: the Vols don’t have a bunch of guys who finish well at the rim, or guards who create their own shot. The latter is probably by design in part: as you can see above, Tennessee excels at offensive rebounding, getting to the free throw line, and knocking them down. And the Vols’ exceptional ball movement – remember, Tennessee led the nation in assist percentage for much of the year and finished seventh – created plenty of open looks from three. It was an offense that finished 36th nationally in KenPom. It’s certainly not broken. But to get to a championship level, Tennessee needs to be more efficient from two.

Jordan Bowden was a better shooter from three (39.5%) than two (39.2%). Jordan Bone and Lamonte Turner were only slightly better. On the other end of the spectrum, one player to watch here is Derrick Walker. He’s the only player on the roster (with freshman DJ Burns looking at a possible redshirt) with the size and strength to get away with it, but he made 59.6% of his attempts from two. Will Tennessee run more of its offense through big men down low to get higher percentage looks? This is the other side of the coin of something else the Vols could do better:

Shoot More Threes…?

We looked at this at the end of the season back in March. The Vols shot 38% from three, 45th nationally. But only 35.7% of Tennessee’s shot attempts were threes, 220th nationally. If 65ish% of your attempts are twos, and you’re not a great two-point shooting team…should the Vols just jack it up more?

Tennessee’s three-point shooting last year was bolstered by so many players knocking them down. Bowden, Turner, Bone, and Schofield were all 38-40% shooters from three. The Vols do lose James Daniel, who hit 37.2%.

We know Tennessee can create good looks inside-out thanks to Williams and Schofield. Should the Vols take more of those looks? Or will the greatest room for improvement come from Alexander and Walker growing their scoring footprint in the paint, thus improving Tennessee’s percentage inside the arc?

Foul Less

Tennessee was 36th nationally in fouls last year, despite playing the 282nd fastest pace in college basketball. Some of this is the nature of the beast when you have undersized bigs and are aggressive defensively. And the Vols didn’t necessarily lose because of this alone, as teams shot 71% at the line against UT, an average 151st nationally.

But Grant Williams averaged 3.3 fouls per game, and fouled out six times. It was most costly in the loss at Arkansas, but the Vols also fell to Villanova, Missouri, and at Georgia when Williams was disqualified. They did beat Georgia Tech, and famously won the SEC by beating Georgia in the rematch after he fouled out. And when you run the numbers per minute, the Vols had lots of foul-happy reserves, led by Derrick Walker and Yves Pons. This isn’t just one player’s issue.

There’s clearly no need for a team that finished sixth in KenPom defensive efficiency to change its identity. But even fouling a little less, with guys like Williams playing fewer minutes with four fouls, can make a difference this season.