Grant Williams averaged 11.3 minutes per game in Boston’s first 10 playoff battles, along the way hitting a surprising 8-of-12 from three and playing solid defense. He was a nice bench piece for the Celtics, especially with Gordon Hayward out with injury.
Tonight, in Game 7, Brad Stevens elected to leave Williams on the bench in the first three quarters. But when Boston center Daniel Theis picked up his fifth foul and Toronto went small, Williams entered the game with 7:13 to play and Boston up six.
The list of Tennessee players in the regular rotation making it to the second round since Allan Houston is small already: two appearances for C.J. Watson, Josh Richardson’s rookie year, Tobias Harris last year, and Grant this season. It’s one thing to play, especially as a rookie. It’s another to get crunch time minutes in Game 7.
Toronto went right at him, to no surprise, but Williams largely held his own, coming up with a big steal and an offensive rebound. When Theis returned with 1:32 to play and the Celtics up four, he lasted 11 seconds before picking up his sixth foul. So Williams returned for the final stretch.
He drew the sixth foul on Kyle Lowry with 35.7 to play and Boston up two.
He missed both free throws, which made me think fondly of his performance at Vanderbilt.
But then, with Boston up three with 12 seconds to play and Toronto looking for one more big shot in a series full of them…
I know, I’m surprised I haven’t caught the virus too!
But you know, they got me for trespassing at Bridgestone Arena back when all this went down. I drove down because I knew Big John Fulkerson and all them were winnin’ that SEC Tournament, no doubt about it. And when they told me it’d been cancelled, I figured it was some kinda conspiracy from ol’ John Calipari to keep them from losing to us again, so I refused to leave the premises. So that, combined with unpaid gambling debts from last year and being picked up naked outside Neyland Stadium the day we switched to Nike…well, that’s three strikes, boys.
But hey, turns out you don’t really go to jail for that stuff in coronavirus times, so now I got me one of these (motions to ankle monitor with Power T in pantone 151 duct tape). My wife cried when she found out I’d be on house arrest, though I’m still unclear if they were tears of joy.
We don’t leave the house, so I don’t need a mask, but I made one with Jauan Jennings catching that football in Georgia on it just because. Sometimes I just wear it around the house to make myself feel better. My therapist says it’s the last time I was truly happy.
She also says I should just be happy to have football this fall, and maybe she’s right. I mean, all my happiness last fall went away so fast, it was one of the most confusing times of my life, I won’t lie to you boys. When we started 0-2 after the end of that BYU game, I started reading the Mormon literature. I stuck with it until Guarantano fumbled at the goal line at Alabama, which is when I knew I must’ve had it wrong. But then, we started winning! So now I’m a little unsure which church I should attend when all this is over, but surely the time of God’s testing has passed! The Vols are back! Phillip said so himself!
He also sent out a letter asking us to send our ticket money to the university even if we don’t get seats this fall, because they could use our help. I tried to find a place to reply in the comments that I’d gladly send that and an advance on next year’s seats as soon as I have it, but my wife changed all my passwords. She’s a smart one. I figure if I just keep asking her to log in to Volquest every 15 minutes she’ll break eventually.
But you know, the program is hurting financially. Everywhere is. I saw Texas is going to have sponsors for each one of their games, which seems like a great idea to raise funds without having to put a Pilot Flying J on General Neyland’s face or whatever. So I’ve got it all figured out:
Tennessee vs Missouri, presented by the Town of Blacksburg. Blacksburg: if the alternative is Columbia, Missouri, I promise you’d rather play here every other year.
Tennessee vs Kentucky, presented by Back to the Future 35th Anniversary Edition. Celebrate 35 years of protecting the timeline and Kentucky losing in Knoxville!
Tennessee vs Alabama, presented by the SEC League Office in Birmingham. You already know how this one’s going to go down; that’s why we’ve gotta find the right church, boys, because only the power of prayer can stop those referees. Also brought to you by: Butch Jones. Butch Jones: he’s getting paid either way!
Tennessee vs Texas A&M, presented by The Estate of David By God Crockett. You’re welcome.
Tennessee vs Florida, presented by Top Gun: Maverick Iceman. The plaque for the alternates is down in the ladies room. Ain’t no way we lose to these guys in December.
(Author’s note: The Idiot Optimist tips his hat to this line from Pat Forde’s 2002 story on Casey Clausen: “Many Tennesseans still have more affection for Peyton Manning than for their own children.” Sounds about right.)
I mean look, if they want to have every game sponsored by Weigel’s, that’s okay with me too. Anything to help the program. But I figure we’re going to make all the money we need when we run the table this fall.
They said we couldn’t have played this past Saturday because we had too many kids in quarantine. But really, how many guys do we need to beat South Carolina? If that o-line is healthy, we need those five and Eric Gray. Maybe throw in Austin Pope as an extra blocker. If we have seven offense players, I say let’s kick it off and see what happens.
We get Georgia while they’re still figuring out their quarterback situation, which as long as it’s not Justin Fields should be fine. Though truly, I think Justin Fields would have a better chance at immediate eligibility at Georgia than Cade Mays does at Tennessee. They gave us Auburn and Texas A&M as a bonus, but hey, Jeremy’s got Gus’s number and, knowing Auburn, they’ll probably want to fire him by November anyway. Texas A&M is an overdue chance for revenge, the first moment that happiness was taken away four years ago. It’s all coming back around, boys. I mean, you go through a ten game schedule in this league, plus Atlanta, does it really matter who else is in the College Football Playoff? Maybe they’ll let Memphis in there this year, that’d be adorable. A national champion from the SEC would finish 13-0 this year. Feels like 98!
I will be grateful for football. I will be grateful for football. I will be grateful for football.
And I will be most grateful for that (Fulmerzied) whipping we’re ‘bout to put on everybody.
What’s the one place where improvement would be most meaningful for Tennessee in 2020? Without question, it’s scoring touchdowns in the red zone.
Last season the Vols made 47 trips inside the 20, but came away with six just 23 times. That’s 48.94%, good for 112th nationally, and of course means the Vols scored a touchdown on less than half of their red zone visits. That’s very bad. Take away Chattanooga and UAB, and the Vols went 17-of-38 (44.7%). That’s even worse.
In 2018, the Vols actually did a pretty good job in the red zone: 34 visits obviously wasn’t ideal, but 22 touchdowns was good for a 64.71% TD percentage, 48th nationally. Larry Scott’s 2017 group went 19-of-35 for 54.29%, painfully flaming out at Florida (0-for-3) after starting the season with eight touchdowns in nine visits, including 5-for-5 must-haves against Georgia Tech. And in 2016, the high-powered Vol offense was one of the best in the nation with 36-of-49 (73.47%), 11th nationally…making it all the more puzzling when they went 2-of-5 against Vanderbilt.
More importantly, here’s what Jim Chaney has done (data from SportSource Analytics):
Jim Chaney in the Red Zone
Year
Team
Red Zone
TD
%
Rank
2010
Tennessee
40
20
50%
105
2011
Tennessee
38
24
63.20%
44
2012
Tennessee
59
36
61.02%
63
2013
Arkansas
38
23
60.53%
72
2014
Arkansas
56
36
64.29%
48
2015
Pittsburgh
48
30
62.50%
53
2016
Georgia
45
25
55.56%
100
2017
Georgia
55
39
70.91%
18
2018
Georgia
60
40
66.67%
35
2019
Tennessee
47
23
48.94%
112
In the good news department: not only is last season at Tennessee his worst performance, all of his teams got better from year one to year two in his system. Before Tyler Bray’s injury in 2011, the Vols scored touchdowns on 16-of-22 appearances (72.7%) in the first four games, including 5-of-6 against Cincinnati.
It’s always the ones you don’t get that stand out, of course. After a spectacular year in the red zone in 2017, the Dawgs were solid in 2018 but went 1-for-3 in the loss to LSU. And for Tennessee last year, as you’ll see, it’s what could’ve been that stands out.
Again, I don’t think beating Georgia State and/or BYU would’ve changed Tennessee’s postseason destiny last year; I think 9-3 Tennessee is still playing Indiana in the Gator Bowl the way the conference shook out, so maybe you take the lessons instead. But the Vols, of course, settled for a pair of field goals in the middle portion of the Georgia State game. And against BYU (and Mississippi State, and Indiana), Tennessee failed to jump on a team early, missing a pair of chances for a two-possession lead on the Cougars.
One outlier stat: Tennessee threw four interceptions in the red zone last year, most in the nation. But two of those were from Brian Maurer in the Mississippi State game, when he may or may not have had a concussion. A third was a ball Jauan Jennings caught just about every other time in his career in the Florida game. I’m not overly worried about Guarantano throwing picks in the end zone. But we also know he can’t go to #15 and #1 anymore. Jennings was fifth nationally with 118 yards in the red zone last year, his seven touchdowns tied for tenth, and he had eight other catches for a first down, fourth nationally. So figuring out who that guy is for Guarantano is job number one.
Two years ago Tennessee was one of the worst short yardage rushing teams in the nation. Now the Vols should have the horses, up front and in the backfield, to be a terror there. So perhaps an answer to all this is just line up and go right at them, and leave less up to the passing game inside the 20. The Vols don’t necessarily have to be spectacular here; even an average red zone performance last year likely makes the difference in two outcomes. But finding out who Guarantano can look for inside the 20 – and on third down, where Jennings was also one of the nation’s best – could be the biggest key to Tennessee’s red zone success in 2020.
Every 2019 Red Zone series
(via ESPN play-by-play data)
Georgia State – Four appearances, two touchdowns:
1Q GSU 7-0: Touchdown
2Q Tied 14-14: FG as half expires; from 2nd-&-Goal at the 3, Vols went incomplete, interception overturned by pass interference, incomplete, FG
Early 4Q GSU 21-20: FG to take the lead; pass complete to Austin Pope for no gain on 3rd-and-2 at the 14
Late 4Q GSU 38-23: Touchdown pass with two seconds left
BYU – Four appearances, two touchdowns:
1Q 0-0: Touchdown (Jennings bobbled catch), went for it on 4th-and-3 at the 5
2Q Vols 7-3: Turnover on downs, Eric Gray stopped on 4th-and-1 at the 19
Early 4Q Vols 13-10: FG; 1st-and-Goal at the 9 led to run for zero, Guarantano run for 4, incomplete
OT1 BYU 23-16: Touchdown, Guarantano to Jennings on 3rd-and-10 at the 13
Chattanooga – Four appearances, three touchdowns:
1Q 0-0: Touchdown
1Q 14-0: Touchdown
2Q 35-0: FG (J.T. Shrout drive)
3Q 38-0: Touchdown (Brian Maurer drive)
Florida – Two appearances, zero touchdowns:
1Q 7-0 FLA: Interception in the end zone (bobbled by Jennings)
3Q 17-0 FLA: FG (Brian Maurer drive)
Georgia – Two appearances, one touchdown:
2Q 10-7 UGA: Touchdown (Maurer to Jennings)
Late 4Q 43-14 UGA: Turnover on downs, Guarantano four straight incompletions from the five yard line
Mississippi State – Four appearances, one touchdown:
1Q 0-0: Interception in the end zone (Maurer)
1Q 0-0: Touchdown, Tim Jordan 15-yard run
2Q 7-3 Vols: Interception in the end zone (Maurer)
3Q 10-3 Vols: FG, Guarantano drive, three Tim Jordan runs for eight yards from 1st-and-10 at the 13
Alabama – Four appearances, one touchdown:
1Q 7-0 Bama: Touchdown (Maurer two yard run)
2Q 14-7 Bama: FG (Maurer injured this drive); Vols had 1st-and-Goal at the 5 and went false start, no gain, holding, two incomplete passes
3Q 21-10 Bama: FG; holding on 1st-and-Goal at the 7
4Q 28-13 Bama: COVER YOUR EYES! Fumble returned for TD on Guarantano sneak; Vols had 1st-and-Goal at the 2 but couldn’t get in on three previous runs
South Carolina – Three appearances, one touchdown:
2Q 7-3 USC: Turnover on downs, 3rd-and-Goal at the 1 led to no gain, incomplete. 17 play drive, no points, but ensuing punt was returned for a TD
When we get excited about the 2020 Vols, the conversation usually centers on the offensive line, or the individual breakout potential of sophomores Eric Gray and Henry To’o To’o. But one of our favorite big picture metrics heavily favors the Tennessee defense.
Bill Connelly’s SP+ ratings got a Week 1 update at ESPN.com this week. Tennessee checks in at 19th, with the usual caveat of, “Yeah, but we play five of the Top 11.” The biggest takeaway in the new ratings to me: while Tennessee’s offense is a pedestrian 50th overall, the defense is sixth. Not in the SEC. In the nation. With all 130 teams accounted for.
(A quick reality check here: Georgia is first at 6.8, miles ahead of #2 Oregon at 12.1. So any conversation on, “Does Tennessee have one of college football’s best defenses,” would start with, “After Georgia, of course.”)
It feels like the Vols lost their most productive player in getting to the quarterback (Darrell Taylor), in setting up the defense (Daniel Bituli), and in the secondary (Nigel Warrior). But the strength of Tennessee’s 2019 defense (which finished 19th in SP+) was less about individual accolades – with one notable exception – and more about the basic building blocks the 2020 defense could replicate:
No big plays. The 2019 Vols finished first in the nation in 30+ yard plays allowed and first in 30+ passing plays allowed (data via SportSource Analytics). Last year Tennessee allowed just 10 plays of 30+ yards. By comparison, in 2016 the Vols allowed 37 plays of 30+ yards.
Interceptions. Nigel Warrior led the way with four, but Bryce Thompson added three and seven other Vols got one as well. Fifteen interceptions last season was good for 13th nationally, the most for Tennessee since 2014.
Solid finish all around. In the 2-5 start, Tennessee allowed 5.44 yards per play. In the 6-0 finish, Tennessee allowed 4.51 yards per play, with none of the victims in that streak getting more than five yards per play against the Vol defense.
Even without Taylor, Bituli, and Warrior, can the 2020 Vols follow that same blueprint? The biggest question to answer: who gets to the quarterback? Darrell Taylor had 8.5 of Tennessee’s 34 sacks, also their highest total since 2014. The Vols seem unlikely to put a pass rusher in the first two rounds of the 2021 NFL Draft. Can a committee replace some/all of that production?
On the other hand, there’s also room for improvement. Tennessee was average on third down last year, allowing a conversion on 39.34% of opponent attempts, 68th nationally. A year ago yesterday, Georgia State went 10-of-17 on third down against the Vols. Alabama went 6-of-10 in Tuscaloosa before we even throw in the referees; Georgia was 5-of-11. But again in the winning streak, Tennessee made significant strides: South Carolina went 4-of-18, Missouri 4-of-15, Indiana 4-of-13. There’s a whole chunk here about the quality of offense the Vols faced in that winning streak. But if we’re finding nice things to say about the new SEC schedule, outside of Alabama the Vols won’t face anything like the Oklahoma offense we lost.
If Jeremy Pruitt, Derrick Ansley, and the defensive staff continue to get improvement from the returning pieces, the Vols could keep doing those building blocks well while finding critical improvement on third down. The sack totals will probably come down without Darrell Taylor, but the defense overall could still be noticeably better in 2020. Be great again at taking away explosive plays, create turnovers in similar fashion, and improve on third down? That’s the makings of a great defense.
We don’t often outright credit the defense for individual wins at the end of last year, not beyond a goal line stop at Kentucky that probably doesn’t get enough praise. And maybe enough upperclassman star power was lost to not make us think of it as a unit that can go out there and win games by itself. But if we’re looking for realistic versions of how the Vols make significant progress in 2020? A defense that leads the way might be more of a factor than we’re giving it credit for.
It’s a weird year, but hey, there’s college football this week! For the first time in the history of our contest, prepare to pick every FBS vs FBS game on the schedule this week!
Normally, we pick 20 games each week straight up with confidence points: place 20 points on the outcome you’re most confident in, 1 point on the outcome you’re least confident in, etc. This year we’ll start with five games this week, then expand next week, and go from there.
If you have any questions, you can leave them here in the comments. The picks contest is one of my favorite things to do all year; there was a strange sense of, “Hey, this season might actually happen!” in putting it together. Hope you find some fun in these crazy times from this pool too.
Historical poll data will become meaningless in week two, with no Big Ten and Pac-12 teams around to fill out the nation’s best 25 teams in a given week. Take them out of the preseason AP poll today, and the Vols would be 16th. But whatever perception is worth, we get one look at Tennessee compared to the rest of the nation, and the Vols grabbed the last spot in this year’s initial AP poll at #25.
This is year three for Jeremy Pruitt. In the preseason poll before Derek Dooley’s third year, the Vols were also receiving votes at 33rd. Tennessee moved into the poll at #23 after a 2-0 start, then lost to Florida. It was the only appearance in three years for Dooley’s Vols. (Poll data from College Poll Archive)
In the preseason poll before Butch Jones’ third year, the Vols were, you guessed it, 25th. They moved up to #23 with the win over Bowling Green, fell out after losing to Oklahoma, and only reappeared in the season finale, finishing #22 after throttling Northwestern in the Outback Bowl.
For Tennessee’s last three coaching staffs, the outset of year three is when the college football world gives you just enough benefit of the doubt to slide in the poll, then asks you to prove it. Dooley, Butch, and Pruitt never flirted with the Top 25 in years one or two; the Vols finished 34th in votes received after beating Indiana in the Gator Bowl last year. Dooley’s Vols were 34th after beating Jones and Cincinnati in week two of the 2011 season, but lost to Florida and never got close again that year due to injury. So each of Tennessee’s last three coaches has come to this moment in more or less the same spot: we think you might have it in you, but now you have to prove it.
When it was clear Butch Jones was on his way out, we talked about how we might measure progress between rebuilding and championships the next time around. One good metric: longevity in the polls, which is probably worth more than where you finish the season when it comes to relevance. That was the case in 2015, when the Vols were clearly competitive with championship-caliber teams, but because they lost those games by the thinnest of margins, never got back into the Top 25 until the very end.
There’s plenty of good historical context in the post linked above from 2017, but in short:
From Tennessee’s return to the Top 25 in September 1989 through the end of the Fulmer Era in 2008,it’s easier for me to tell you when Tennessee wasn’t ranked:
October-November in 1994, playing freshman Peyton Manning at quarterback. The Vols finished #24 in the final poll after beating Virginia Tech in the Gator Bowl.
Mid-October through early November in 2000 after a 2-3 start in a rebuilding year. The loss to Kansas State in the Cotton Bowl bounced the Vols from the final poll.
November of 2002 through the final poll
Late October of 2005 through the final poll
The week after losing to Alabama in 2007
From 1989-2007, that’s it.
From 2008-2019, it’s easier for me to tell you when Tennessee was ranked:
2008 preseason poll
The week of the Florida game in 2012
The first two weeks and the final poll in 2015
The first nine weeks of 2016, plus the week of the Vanderbilt game and the final poll after beating Nebraska in the Music City Bowl
The first three weeks in 2017
So now, we’re back in the poll for the first time since September 10, 2017. The point about staying ranked will be less potent if the Vols jump 10+ spots by beating South Carolina and nine other teams being removed from the poll because they’re not playing. But the point about staying relevant very much remains. These year three Vols, similar to their Butch Jones predecessors, got here by a strong finish in year two without beating any ranked teams along the way. They’re good enough to be dangerous, and in no way good enough to avoid danger themselves. Staying relevant this year will look like staying alive in the SEC East race; a 6-4 finish with a loss to Florida in December will feel different than, say, a 6-4 finish that started 2-3.
We’ve been here before, more than once. The way forward looks much different in a pandemic. But it’s up to the 2020 Vols to see that being ranked in the preseason poll is more than just a brief historical footnote this time around.
We fired up our Expected Win Total Machine this week as soon as the SEC released the new 2020 schedule. If you haven’t already, you can go there and put in your win probabilities for every game on Tennessee’s new schedule, and the machine will give you how many games you think the Vols will win this season. It’s one thing to say you think the Vols will go 6-4 with wins over abc and losses to xyz. But we find it to be a better, healthier exercise to assign win probabilities for each game to get a record projection.
What does a successful season look like now? Our community projects the Vols to win 5.82 games against this schedule. If you round up to a 6-4 finish, that would guarantee Tennessee beat at least one of its five preseason Top 15 opponents. Pre-pandemic, an 8-4 finish against the original schedule felt like the head-nod verdict: yep, okay, that’s probably what we should expect, moving on. But whereas an 8-4 finish against the original schedule didn’t guarantee you a marquee win, a 6-4 finish against a 10-game SEC slate should include at least one signature win.
As we know, not all 8-4’s are created equal, and neither will all 6-4’s this year. But some of the things we use to measure success – like a traditional January 1 bowl – may not be available this season. Signature wins will be more important than ever, but so too will overall progress in metrics like SP+. It still holds that one of the best ways to measure progress for the 2020 Vols is the, “We have a chance to win this game,” test. After 2001, the only Tennessee team not to lose at least one three-possession game is 2015. That would be a good list for the 2020 Vols to be on.
Everything is about the SEC East race. That should really always be the case. The original move of the Georgia game to November would’ve kept the Vols in the SEC East chase much longer than usual, just for the hope of knocking off the Dawgs in Athens towards the end of the season. Now Georgia is in week three, but I think Tennessee actually benefits from that trade: Florida is the season finale instead of a mid-November date, and the Gators’ schedule offers them a better chance to be the team to beat. Lose in week three to Georgia and you’re behind, but the Dawgs are in Tuscaloosa the very next week, where Tennessee could instantly get a game back. Simply by playing Alabama, Georgia is the easier team to catch in the standings if you don’t beat them head-to-head. And even if the Gators do find success against their lighter load, Tennessee can still knock them off in Knoxville in December. The Vols should stay in the race for a long time this season, and that in and of itself will feel very much like progress.
Trap opponents out of trap weeks. If we assume Vanderbilt and Arkansas don’t qualify as trap games because the Vols should be able to overwhelm them with talent, the remaining candidates are South Carolina, Missouri, and Kentucky…and the Cats only qualify because they haven’t won in Knoxville since 1984. But now, Tennessee gets trap opponents in weeks one and two. If we learned anything at all from Georgia State, the Vols shouldn’t be caught off guard out the gate. So while we didn’t want to play two non-Top 15 opponents back-to-back to help with the schedule’s overall rhythm, it’s a really good setup on the front end.
Here’s how our community rates Tennessee’s chances in each game:
“Not one with Auburn and Texas A&M,” you might say. But with those two added to the docket, the order of opponents becomes much more important: if you’re playing five preseason Top 15 teams for only the second time ever, you don’t want to play any of them in consecutive weeks if you can help it.
The Vols, of course, can’t help it: they’ll get what the league office gives them, which clearly didn’t work to our advantage last time. Today we’ll discover our week one opponent at 3:00 PM ET and the full slate at 7:00. Aside from putting some distance between our five marquee opponents, what would be most advantageous for the Vols?
If you gave me the authority to set Tennessee’s entire schedule, I’d go with something like this:
Week 1: Missouri – the Vols face two year one coaches in 2020, and with one of them at struggling Arkansas, I’ll take my chances in week one with Missouri. The assumption here is no spring practice is especially cruel to new coaches, and the Vols get a shot at Eli Drinkwitz’s squad before they get their feet set. And if fans are allowed in the stands, it’s nice to open at home.
Week 2: at Auburn – The rhythm you want puts a Top 15 opponent between a not-Top 15 opponent, and I’m taking the Tigers first. Auburn now has Chad Morris running the offense, another disadvantage with no spring practice. It fills the week two hole where Oklahoma would’ve been, and is a lower-risk entry to big-time football as a cross-divisional opponent: lose and it’s not an enormous setback in the SEC East, win and you do wonders early.
Week 3: at Vanderbilt – I put Tennessee’s two easiest games around two of their most difficult:
Week 4: Florida – The Gators maintain their traditional place on Tennessee’s schedule, and the healthy distance from the Georgia game the Vols would’ve enjoyed for the first time in 2020 anyway.
Week 5: bye – It may seem more advantageous to put the bye in the dead center of the schedule the following week, but I like it better here to do things this way:
Week 6: Alabama – The Vols retain their bye the week before the Crimson Tide come to Knoxville, and avoid whatever emotional response would come from winning or losing to the Gators in playing the following week.
Week 7: at Arkansas – What might be Tennessee’s easiest game on the schedule needs to surround one of their big three rivalries and preseason Top 10 games, so we’ve got Arkansas in the aftermath of Alabama, where it also serves as a nice buffer for…
Week 8: Texas A&M – Whatever you want to believe about the Aggies’ ceiling in preseason will surely be known by now, so you either get another marquee game or a frustrated squad with less to play for. Similar logic comes into play with:
Week 9: at South Carolina – I was tempted to make the Gamecocks Tennessee’s week one opponent, but you’d rather catch a potentially embattled coach later in the season when things might already be lost.
Week 10: Kentucky – As it originally existed on Tennessee’s schedule, this is the warm-up…
Week 11: at Georgia – …and this is the finisher. Having Georgia at the end could keep SEC East hopes alive throughout the season, just by having the possibility of an upset win in Athens on the table. Having spent our entire SEC East existence playing Florida (other than 2001) and Georgia in the first half of the season, we’re used to our fate being sealed by the second week of October. I hope the league office keeps the Dawgs at the end of our road; it’s an enticing option if they want to keep the Cocktail Party’s place in the order intact, and keep Alabama and Auburn on the final weekend. The Dawgs and Gators are used to facing key rivals this weekend anyway, so I’d love for Tennessee to get one of those Week 11 spots on their schedule.
Anything you’d most like to see when the schedule is released today?
Three weeks ago we had some fun with post-pandemic fantasy booking, creating a 32-team college football super division. It was a fun exercise to pass the late-July time, but only fun because Tennessee would easily make any cut of 32: if you want to know who’s most likely to be left standing on the other side of all this, follow the money.
It’s no surprise then, in the present, which schools from the Big Ten are arguing loudest for fall football in any form or fashion.
Last night, the Big Ten began hypothetically discussing what teams would do in the fall *if* the season got moved to the spring. It was contentious, as the bigger programs still want to play this fall. It marked one of the first hypothetical conversations about this topic.
Who are the bigger programs? That’s a pretty easy answer in each of the power five conferences. What might be noteworthy, from the data in our fantasy booking story, is how much bigger those programs are than their league brethren.
Half the SEC (Six traditional powers plus Texas A&M)
Big Ten: Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State
Big 12: Texas & Oklahoma
Notre Dame
ACC: zero
Pac-12: zero
Thirty-two programs are valued at $250+ million:
SEC: 11 of 14
Big Ten: 8 of 14
Big 12: 4 of 10
Notre Dame
ACC: 3 of 14
Pac-12: 5 of 12
Sometimes the dividing line between the haves and the have-nots is easy to spot. In the SEC, Mississippi State ($223 mil.) just misses making it 12 of 14 to clear $250 million in value. From there, it’s a steep drop to Missouri ($122) and Vanderbilt ($81). A “no” from Nashville isn’t going to be worth much.
In the ACC, there’s clear separation between the top three (Clemson, Florida State, and Virginia Tech all between $275-300 million) and the rest of the league (Georgia Tech is next at $215; no one else is above $200). But those top three are starting so much farther back than the biggest fish in the SEC, Big Ten, and Big 12 ponds, it’s uncertain how much weight they carry among the other 11 ACC institutions in a basketball conference, even when two have rings from the last decade. Washington has a healthy lead on the rest of the Pac-12 ($440 million; Oregon is second at $348), but there’s no clear separation between an upper and lower class there either, and no financial superpowers.
Who wants to play in the Big Ten? Take a guess:
It seems contractually unlikely anyone could break ranks and play out-of-conference this fall. But if you’re looking at who might be itching for something different – especially if other power conferences do play this fall – it’s the top half of that chart. They can share revenue all they want, but the longer this goes the more it becomes about survival for college athletics. And the top half of that chart is far more likely to find a way.
So now, if so much hangs on what the Big 12 wants to do?
How much of that conversation is really about what Texas and Oklahoma want to do? Especially considering half of the remaining conference also resides in one of those two states with the same politicians?
I don’t know if playing this fall is the best idea or not. But if you’re looking for teams who are most likely to come alongside it, keep following the money.
There’s no historical context for a 10-game SEC season in the modern era, so sure, you can make the argument that this kind of gauntlet, absent any FCS cupcakes or mid-major challengers, is harder than anything else the Vols have faced before. But as the major talking point is how the Vols are playing five teams in the preseason Top 15 (in the coaches’ poll), it’s a good way to compare what the 2020 Vols might/will face to what Tennessee teams of the past have seen.
(For this piece I used the preseason AP poll data from College Poll Archive, which goes back much farther than their coaches’ poll data.)
Tennessee’s schedule, as you know, is always hard: Florida, Georgia, and Alabama are ever present, ever elite. Alabama has been ranked no lower than third in the preseason AP poll for 11 years in a row, no big deal. Georgia has been ranked third or fourth in the preseason poll the last three years. And though not quite that high in the present, Florida was preseason top five three times under Urban Meyer and eight under Steve Spurrier, including six years in a row from 1994-99. Those teams are always going to be there. The Vols have two top five and three top ten teams on their 2020 schedule, but nothing about that is unusual for Tennessee.
The Vols have also played a historically difficult non-conference opponent each year. Since the league expanded to divisional play in 1992 nearly 30 years ago, Tennessee has faced a preseason Top 15 non-conference foe eight times; Oklahoma would’ve made nine this year.
So, how does playing five preseason Top 15 teams (#3 Alabama, #4 Georgia, #8 Florida, #11 Auburn, #13 Texas A&M) compare to Tennessee’s recent history? Since divisional play began in 1992, only one season can match it: Butch Jones’ first year in 2013, when the Vols played five preseason Top 10 teams: #1 Alabama, #3 Oregon, #5 Georgia, #6 South Carolina, and #10 Florida. (Preseason poll only, so that fun doesn’t include eventual national runner-up Auburn or SEC East champion Missouri, which finished fifth.) Remember that?
In four other seasons since 1992, the Vols have faced four preseason Top 15 teams:
2014: #2 Alabama, #4 Oklahoma, #9 South Carolina, #12 Georgia
2011: #2 Alabama, #4 LSU, #12 South Carolina, #15 Arkansas
2009: #1 Florida, #5 Alabama, #8 Ole Miss, #13 Georgia
Again, the preseason poll is prone to error: the Vols beat South Carolina in 2014 and dominated Cal in the 2006 opener. It’s all perception at this point, and an accurate one to say 2020 would be one of the most difficult schedules the Vols have ever faced going in…just not quite at the top of that list. And those Butch Jones Vols in year one were both less talented and had their chances. So if we do play this thing, there’s still reason, even in the midst of nearly unprecedented difficulty, to see opportunity.
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