Author Archives: Will Shelton

Two bits of good news this week: the Pac-12 is back, giving as full a meaning and purpose to our college football institutions as is available in 2020. The College Football Playoff will select from a full field, though they’ll now have the unenviable task of picking four teams from (at least) five conferences that didn’t play the same number of games. ESPN’s FPI currently projects conference championship games that include something like 10-1 Clemson vs 9-2 Notre Dame, 9-1 Alabama vs 8-2 Georgia, 9-1 Texas vs 8-2 Oklahoma, and 7-1 Ohio State vs 7-1 Wisconsin. In such a mess, I’m not sure any team that doesn’t win its division would have enough of an argument to get in, but I’m sure that won’t stop anyone from trying.

The Pac-12’s return also puts the polls in their proper historical context. Tennessee is ranked 16th in the AP poll, which doesn’t include Big Ten/Pac-12 teams, and 21st in the coaches’ poll, which doesn’t include the Pac-12. It’s probably most helpful to think of the Vols at #25, their preseason ranking, and go from there. But at least the final polls will include the all the major options.

Those final polls are one way to measure a season that will surely need some additional data than the final record. 6-4 will be worth much more than it normally would with everyone playing a more difficult schedule. And you could also have a host of teams with the same record, all a little unsure how to feel about it. So that’s where the second bit of good news this week comes in: not only does it appear we’re still getting bowl games this year, but everyone is eligible. Taken out by the virus at 3-7? Welcome to Shreveport, baby!

We all deserve a participation ribbon this year; I’ve got no problem with it. But more to the point, the possibility of a bowl trip we’d normally be excited about, even if it’s light on the trip portion this year, can help validate a good result for Tennessee.

2020 SEC win total odds, per SP+

* The "8-2 SEC team vs. 7-1 B1G team" debate is gonna be fascinating (and loud)
* I'm back so hard on the LSU bandwagon that their win odds seem REALLY low to me
* MSU, Mizzou, Ole Miss & SC = 4-way pointing Spiderman meme
* oof, Vandy pic.twitter.com/mFqueEi8s5

— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) September 22, 2020

If everybody hit their most likely outcome, the SEC would finish like this:

SEC East

1. Florida/Georgia winner at 8-2
2. Florida/Georgia loser at 8-2
3. Tennessee/Kentucky winner at 5-5
4. Tennessee/Kentucky loser at 5-5
5. South Carolina 4-6
6. Missouri 3-7
7. Vanderbilt 0-10

SEC West

1. Alabama 8-2
2. Texas A&M 7-3
3. Auburn/LSU winner at 6-4
4. Auburn/LSU loser at 6-4
5. Ole Miss 4-6
6. Mississippi State 3-7
7. Arkansas 1-9

Let’s assume the SEC Champion is making the playoff either way, even with two losses. In this scenario, we might find the loser in Atlanta and the second place SEC East team also making the New Year’s Six. If the traditional structure holds, 7-3 Texas A&M would be the Citrus Bowl pick, and the 5-5 Vols would find themselves in the group of six bowls, with Nashville the most likely destination.

But if the Vols got to 6-4, they might find themselves a prime candidate for the Outback Bowl. A 6-4 season that ended with a shot at, say, Michigan in what would join our 2015 (and 2006, and 2007) Tampa appearance as Tennessee’s most prestigious bowl destination since 2004? That would give some extra juice to 6-4.

In a year when final record will be a terrible way to compare teams from one conference to another but a much better way to compare teams from the same conference, every win could make a big difference come bowl time. Our best benchmarks for forward progress this year remain:

1. Having a real chance to win every single Saturday
2. Staying in the SEC East race deep into the season

But if Tampa (or Orlando!) is out there as a reasonable destination? Everyone deserves the participation ribbon, but the Outback or Citrus Bowl would be an excellent exclamation point for Tennessee this year, and they could get there at 6-4 or better.

Last year, before kickoff, it was, “It’s nice to play a cupcake for a change!” So lesson one: whatever we say, say it very carefully.

Georgia State was supposed to be the first easy Week 1 opponent for the Vols since Butch Jones’ debut against Austin Peay in 2013. If there’s any good news in that, it’s that we’re used to a challenge right away, expected or otherwise. That means a job well done in week one is incredibly rewarding…and incredibly difficult to come by.

That incredibly rewarding feeling? We’ve only seen it once on opening weekend in these last six years. On a Sunday night in Neyland, Tennessee scored on its second drive against Utah State, recovered a fumble on the ensuing kickoff, and scored again on the very next play. The Vols routed Chukie Keeton and the Aggies 38-7 behind a solid 27-of-38 for 273 and three touchdowns from Justin Worley. It’s not that you thought the Vols were going to win it all after that one, and it’s not that Tennessee didn’t disappoint mightily against Florida a month later. But a good first impression, especially in unusual times, is valuable beyond fan expectations. And since 2014, week one has gone differently:

• 2015: This Kamara kid might be the real deal, but will we ever stop a go route again? Did we really give up 557 yards to Bowling Green?
• 2016: Never schedule Appalachian State. Ever. Never ever.
• 2017: Well, we gave up 655 yards to Georgia Tech, but we won woooooooooooooooooooooo (what a spectacularly insane football game that ultimately amounted to nothing).
• 2018: Hmm, so not having Butch Jones out there didn’t automatically make us good enough to beat West Virginia. Okay.
• 2019: (Fulmerized)

How often does the first impression stick? The 2015 Vols did indeed stop a go route, and ended up coming closer to the promised land than any other team post-Fulmer. The warning signs from 2016, 2017, and 2018 turned out to be true. And the story of last season was about Georgia State, then about how they were able to make it not about Georgia State, and give this season a chance to make us remember it again as a starting point for something much bigger than 8-5.

If future schedules hold, the Vols will open 2021 with Bowling Green and 2022 with Ball State before traveling to Provo to open 2023. So maybe this is a temporary issue. But for the next 11 weeks, the only break is the bye week. This will be an entirely new experience for all of us, not only watching Tennessee but watching Georgia and Florida have real opportunities to lose almost every Saturday. Much like conference play in basketball, every win is a good win. So if we get a grumpy win, we’ll take it and move on to Missouri. We’ll take one every Saturday in the chase for the SEC East.

But man…wouldn’t it be fun to get off to a good start?

Go Vols.

Even for a team on a six-game winning streak, little came easy for Tennessee last year. In the Vols’ four-game sweep of the SEC East’s second tier (South Carolina, Kentucky, Missouri, and Vanderbilt) – our first such sweep since 2015 – Tennessee had to come from behind in all four games.

That’s because the Vols struggled mightily on the game’s opening drive, on both sides of the ball.

Take out the win over Chattanooga, and in a dozen FBS contests last year, Tennessee’s opening drives ended this way:

2019 OFFENSE

• Three-and-out: 4
• Punt: 3
• Turnover: 3
• Touchdown: 1
• Field Goal: 1

The lone touchdown: 15 plays, 80 yards against BYU, ending on a batted ball fourth down conversion in the end zone. The lone field goal came after intercepting UAB on the game’s first play, then only advancing the ball a single yard from the 19 in three plays.

The defense? Well, they didn’t help each other out:

2019 DEFENSE

• Touchdown: 6
• Field Goal: 2
• Turnover: 2
• Three-and-out: 1
• Punt: 1

The Vols gave up six on the opening drive against Georgia State (short field), Florida, Georgia, Alabama, South Carolina (first play), and Kentucky. Especially when you’re looking for the upset, that’s not the way you want to get started.

So this made me curious: is this a pattern?

Different coordinators, but here’s what the Vols did on the opening drive in 2018 against FBS competition:

2018 OFFENSE

• Three-and-out: 4
• Punt: 4
• Turnover: 2
• Field Goal: 1

In Jeremy Pruitt’s two seasons and 23 contests against FBS foes, the Vols have scored a touchdown on the opening drive once, and scored points only three times. Of those three scores, a field goal at Auburn in 2018 was the only one against a Power 5 opponent.

The defense in Pruitt’s first year:

2018 DEFENSE

• Punt: 4
• Touchdown: 3
• Field Goal: 2
• Three-and-out: 2

So better than their 2019 counterparts, but still surrendered points on 45% of the opponent’s opening drives. In Pruitt’s 23 FBS games, the Vols have scored on the opening drive three times, and allowed points on the opening drive 13 times. Simply put: the Vols have to start faster. Play from behind for so long and you can only expect so much success.

I was curious about Jim Chaney here too, and was a little alarmed when I ran the 2012 numbers for Tennessee (all via ESPN.com’s play-by-play data). Even the vaunted Bray-Hunter-CP offense scored just three times on their opening drives, though they were all touchdowns. Those Vols went three-and-out four times, punted twice, and turned it over twice.

But Chaney’s run at Georgia ended with far more success. In his last year at Georgia in 2018, Chaney’s offense scored a touchdown on the opening drive six times in 13 FBS games, plus two field goals. Those dudes were not messing around and almost never played from behind.

Tennessee probably isn’t good enough to jump on everyone they play this fall. But even if they’re better than last year, you can’t keep falling behind and expect it not to cost you. The Vols got away with it at the end of last season against the SEC East. But a faster start in 2020 could lead to more breathing room at the end, setting an initial tone the Vols have struggled to establish going back to the Butch Jones years. I’ll be curious to see how they come out of the gate on Saturday night.

“Less.” Let’s start there.

The college football I’ve seen sounds more like its high school equivalent, but that still sounds more daunting than bubbles and empty arenas. The notion of home court advantage has been obliterated in the NBA Playoffs; the traditional road team has won 12 games in a row in contests featuring the Boston Celtics, for instance. In SP+ projections, home field advantage is now worth just a single point.

For Tennessee and South Carolina? Home field has been worth quite a bit.

In Knoxville, the Vols have won five of the last seven, and 2019’s 20-point margin of victory was the largest in the series since 2008. In Columbia, South Carolina has won five of the last six, and the Vols needed the miraculous to get that one in 2014.

Even as Tennessee’s program struggled and South Carolina’s ascended in the last decade, the games have always been close in Columbia: Tyler Bray’s debut against the eventual East champions in 2010, Derek Dooley’s last chance against an equally good Carolina team in 2012, both coming up just short in the fourth quarter. After Dobbs’ comeback in 2014, the Gamecocks pulled the shocking upset as a two-touchdown underdog to derail the 2016 season two years later. And two years ago, Jeremy Pruitt’s first team had a 21-9 lead after the opening drive of the third quarter, but gave up two touchdowns and a field goal on South Carolina’s next three drives for a 27-24 loss.

Tennessee’s luck in Columbia as opposed to the other second-tier SEC East foes:

Vols on the road since 2008:

Opponent	W	L
South Carolina	1	5
Kentucky	4	2
Missouri	2	2
Vanderbilt	3	3

Before the Vols blew last year’s game open, games in this series from 2012-18 were decided by three, two, three in overtime, three, three, six at the one yard line, and three. It may be easy for Tennessee fans to still hold onto notions of who South Carolina isn’t. Likewise, it may be easy for South Carolina fans to still hold onto notions of who the Vols still aren’t. Either way, the history here suggests something very close…and home field being worth even a little less is good news for Tennessee in this series.

A few months ago in the uncertain haze of the pandemic, we started counting down Tennessee’s most important stories of the decade. We did numbers 10-5 before it felt more certain we’d actually get SEC football this fall. If you’ll forgive the abrupt ending, it’s no surprise the top two stories of Tennessee’s last decade happened off the field: Kiffin’s midnight run to California, and the insanity of Schiano Sunday. But among on-field results, ranking for importance? That’s why those 2016 wins only came in at number five overall: because they were immediately overshadowed by those 2016 losses to South Carolina and Vanderbilt, which I had at number four. But I think those two losses were even more painful because of what Tennessee and Butch Jones had already been through. I think the most consequential on-field results for Tennessee in the last decade came against Oklahoma and Florida in 2015: a what-could-have-been so potent, it was still waiting for us on the other side of all those 2016 wins. The Vols had their best chance to cash in on everything Butch Jones had been building to that point against the Sooners and Gators, had them both and let them get away in spectacular fashion. It would have taken a championship to let that go. You just can’t miss those opportunities.

And that’s what year three is often about.

It happened much the same for Derek Dooley, only in the final game of year two against Kentucky, in his most consequential outcome. Year three is typically the, “I’ve seen enough to decide,” moment in the minds of many, even if it sometimes takes another year or two for those decisions to carry the weight of real consequence.

It’s Dooley’s “year zero” phrase we’ve come back to a lot under Jeremy Pruitt, in part because the early signing period has changed the year two math and magic for almost everyone, and in part because Tennessee was digging out of an even deeper hole. So even before the pandemic, 2020 wasn’t championship-or-bust for the Vols. Having a chance to win every Saturday was a great goal. It still is…if the Vols are playing at full strength every week.

The ifs will get fast and furious from here, the day before the week before kickoff. This is always the real end of the off-season for me, because Monday it’s game week, time to talk a specific opponent. This weekend is the last chance to take a clear look at the big picture. Our community’s expected win totals hover just above 5.8, meaning 6-4 is our best guess and 5-5 is more likely than 7-3. We’re always guessing anyway – see Georgia State and the last six games – but in 2020 none of us have studied for this particular exam.

So three thoughts as this season prepares to write its opening chapter:

On knowing it’s the Apocrypha before you read it

We’re deep into the multiverse now, if you like. This is a story that may or may not be canon, but will certainly influence the canon either way.

Everything we want to assume or believe about year three? Preconceived notions that Jeremy ain’t the guy since Georgia State or Jeremy’s definitely leaving for Alabama after we go undefeated this fall? We should unburden ourselves of all that.

It’s not one we’d pick or rank high in ultimate importance, but I think one of the toughest stretches for Tennessee fans in the last decade came when Justin Hunter and Tyler Bray were hurt after looking so unstoppable against Cincinnati in 2011. It’s so hard to create expectations and then have to let them go. What if the Vols roll South Carolina and Missouri, play Georgia to one possession, then lose a ton of guys to quarantine and lose to Kentucky? That would suck! And it could happen!

I don’t think we’re going to see a ton of coaching changes in the midst of the pandemic. Before all this, the most important story of the last decade was really about how it will get told in this decade. Is what happened three Novembers ago a story about Schiano and Currie? Or can it become a story about Pruitt and Fulmer? We won’t get those or any other complete answers in a year like this. But I’ve been grateful for their presence and leadership these last six months.

The Vols still need to put a compelling product on the field to help them recruit at the level they’re currently enjoying – this is perhaps the most important outcome this fall. But if this thing gets sideways and the Vols go 3-7, no one has the energy for a coaching hot board. This season counts. But it doesn’t count. But it does. Don’t overburden yourself with expectations and the overall narrative.

But that doesn’t mean this individual story can’t be a lot of fun.

Good news: it’s more important than ever to cheer against Florida and Georgia!

My camp is small, but steadfast: I always cheer for Florida (and Georgia, and Alabama, and Kentucky in basketball) until they beat us, because it’s more meaningful and valuable to us to beat them at their best. This is one part growing up with the Vols at their peak from 1989-2001, and one part idiot optimism. But I’ve always been this way.

Not this year.

This year is going to feel much more like the last two weeks of a pennant race: you may have a head-to-head shot at the team you’re trying to beat/catch/hold off, but you want them to lose every time they play. With Florida in December (like Georgia in November pre-pandemic), the Vols should have a chance to stay in the SEC East race longer than we’re used to. That, by itself, would feel like progress. ESPN’s FPI projects two losses for Georgia and three for Florida. Things should be tighter than usual. That’s good news for the underdog.

You’ll get a shot at this right away: next week Florida is at Ole Miss at noon on ESPN, Kentucky at Auburn at noon on the SEC Network. If the Vols are a half game up on either of their East counterparts when they kick off at 7:30, I’d enjoy it very much. Which brings me to my last point:

Joy is so valuable right now

When you turn on college football after the long pandemic summer, there’s an initial thrill: we made it! I wasn’t sure we’d get here! But, if you’re like me, the thrill only lasts so long when it’s BYU and Navy or Georgia Tech and Florida State or whomever in front of minimal fans. And then you wonder if you’ll feel the same way – absence with presence – when the Vols play.

Your mileage may vary. But my experience watching the Boston Celtics (and Grant Williams!) in the playoffs the last few weeks suggests we’re going to be just fine in the feels department.

Granted, basketball is something we often experience in front of no fans in a pickup game. Football (and baseball) are almost never played at full roster capacity without a crowd involved. So it might feel different, and it might feel a little like high school.

But I think it’s going to feel good. And I don’t think you’ll have to wait until 7:30 next Saturday night. When Florida and Ole Miss kick off, it matters to Tennessee. That’s what we’re looking for. That’s what we need.

This season matters enough. Maybe not for Jeremy Pruitt’s ultimate legacy, maybe not when different starters out different weeks produces very different outcomes.

But I think we will feel the things we want to feel when the orange and white hit the field, when cheering against the colors we despise. Different, sure, and for many of us not in person for the first time in a long time. Different, but still good. It’s always more about the thing itself than the thing when it wins. I have no idea how much winning Tennessee is going to do; I’m hopeful they’re going to have a chance every single Saturday.

But more than six months after wearing orange to work even knowing the Vols probably weren’t going to play Alabama in the SEC Tournament, next Saturday the Vols probably are. However different, our team is going to play.

That’s good news.

Go Vols.

I know, I’m surprised I haven’t caught the virus too!

But you know, they got me for trespassing at Bridgestone Arena back when all this went down. I drove down because I knew Big John Fulkerson and all them were winnin’ that SEC Tournament, no doubt about it. And when they told me it’d been cancelled, I figured it was some kinda conspiracy from ol’ John Calipari to keep them from losing to us again, so I refused to leave the premises. So that, combined with unpaid gambling debts from last year and being picked up naked outside Neyland Stadium the day we switched to Nike…well, that’s three strikes, boys.

But hey, turns out you don’t really go to jail for that stuff in coronavirus times, so now I got me one of these (motions to ankle monitor with Power T in pantone 151 duct tape). My wife cried when she found out I’d be on house arrest, though I’m still unclear if they were tears of joy.

We don’t leave the house, so I don’t need a mask, but I made one with Jauan Jennings catching that football in Georgia on it just because. Sometimes I just wear it around the house to make myself feel better. My therapist says it’s the last time I was truly happy.

She also says I should just be happy to have football this fall, and maybe she’s right. I mean, all my happiness last fall went away so fast, it was one of the most confusing times of my life, I won’t lie to you boys. When we started 0-2 after the end of that BYU game, I started reading the Mormon literature. I stuck with it until Guarantano fumbled at the goal line at Alabama, which is when I knew I must’ve had it wrong. But then, we started winning! So now I’m a little unsure which church I should attend when all this is over, but surely the time of God’s testing has passed! The Vols are back! Phillip said so himself!

He also sent out a letter asking us to send our ticket money to the university even if we don’t get seats this fall, because they could use our help. I tried to find a place to reply in the comments that I’d gladly send that and an advance on next year’s seats as soon as I have it, but my wife changed all my passwords. She’s a smart one. I figure if I just keep asking her to log in to Volquest every 15 minutes she’ll break eventually.

But you know, the program is hurting financially. Everywhere is. I saw Texas is going to have sponsors for each one of their games, which seems like a great idea to raise funds without having to put a Pilot Flying J on General Neyland’s face or whatever. So I’ve got it all figured out:

• Tennessee vs Missouri, presented by the Town of Blacksburg. Blacksburg: if the alternative is Columbia, Missouri, I promise you’d rather play here every other year.
• Tennessee vs Kentucky, presented by Back to the Future 35^th Anniversary Edition. Celebrate 35 years of protecting the timeline and Kentucky losing in Knoxville!
• Tennessee vs Alabama, presented by the SEC League Office in Birmingham. You already know how this one’s going to go down; that’s why we’ve gotta find the right church, boys, because only the power of prayer can stop those referees. Also brought to you by: Butch Jones. Butch Jones: he’s getting paid either way!
• Tennessee vs Texas A&M, presented by The Estate of David By God Crockett. You’re welcome.
• Tennessee vs Florida, presented by Top Gun: Maverick Iceman. The plaque for the alternates is down in the ladies room. Ain’t no way we lose to these guys in December.

(Author’s note: The Idiot Optimist tips his hat to this line from Pat Forde’s 2002 story on Casey Clausen: “Many Tennesseans still have more affection for Peyton Manning than for their own children.” Sounds about right.)

I mean look, if they want to have every game sponsored by Weigel’s, that’s okay with me too. Anything to help the program. But I figure we’re going to make all the money we need when we run the table this fall.

They said we couldn’t have played this past Saturday because we had too many kids in quarantine. But really, how many guys do we need to beat South Carolina? If that o-line is healthy, we need those five and Eric Gray. Maybe throw in Austin Pope as an extra blocker. If we have seven offense players, I say let’s kick it off and see what happens.

We get Georgia while they’re still figuring out their quarterback situation, which as long as it’s not Justin Fields should be fine. Though truly, I think Justin Fields would have a better chance at immediate eligibility at Georgia than Cade Mays does at Tennessee. They gave us Auburn and Texas A&M as a bonus, but hey, Jeremy’s got Gus’s number and, knowing Auburn, they’ll probably want to fire him by November anyway. Texas A&M is an overdue chance for revenge, the first moment that happiness was taken away four years ago. It’s all coming back around, boys. I mean, you go through a ten game schedule in this league, plus Atlanta, does it really matter who else is in the College Football Playoff? Maybe they’ll let Memphis in there this year, that’d be adorable. A national champion from the SEC would finish 13-0 this year. Feels like 98!

I will be grateful for football. I will be grateful for football. I will be grateful for football.

And I will be most grateful for that (Fulmerzied) whipping we’re ‘bout to put on everybody.

What’s the one place where improvement would be most meaningful for Tennessee in 2020? Without question, it’s scoring touchdowns in the red zone.

Last season the Vols made 47 trips inside the 20, but came away with six just 23 times. That’s 48.94%, good for 112th nationally, and of course means the Vols scored a touchdown on less than half of their red zone visits. That’s very bad. Take away Chattanooga and UAB, and the Vols went 17-of-38 (44.7%). That’s even worse.

In 2018, the Vols actually did a pretty good job in the red zone: 34 visits obviously wasn’t ideal, but 22 touchdowns was good for a 64.71% TD percentage, 48th nationally. Larry Scott’s 2017 group went 19-of-35 for 54.29%, painfully flaming out at Florida (0-for-3) after starting the season with eight touchdowns in nine visits, including 5-for-5 must-haves against Georgia Tech. And in 2016, the high-powered Vol offense was one of the best in the nation with 36-of-49 (73.47%), 11th nationally…making it all the more puzzling when they went 2-of-5 against Vanderbilt.

More importantly, here’s what Jim Chaney has done (data from SportSource Analytics):

Jim Chaney in the Red Zone

Year	Team	Red Zone	TD	%	Rank
2010	Tennessee	40	20	50%	105
2011	Tennessee	38	24	63.20%	44
2012	Tennessee	59	36	61.02%	63
2013	Arkansas	38	23	60.53%	72
2014	Arkansas	56	36	64.29%	48
2015	Pittsburgh	48	30	62.50%	53
2016	Georgia	45	25	55.56%	100
2017	Georgia	55	39	70.91%	18
2018	Georgia	60	40	66.67%	35
2019	Tennessee	47	23	48.94%	112

In the good news department: not only is last season at Tennessee his worst performance, all of his teams got better from year one to year two in his system. Before Tyler Bray’s injury in 2011, the Vols scored touchdowns on 16-of-22 appearances (72.7%) in the first four games, including 5-of-6 against Cincinnati.

It’s always the ones you don’t get that stand out, of course. After a spectacular year in the red zone in 2017, the Dawgs were solid in 2018 but went 1-for-3 in the loss to LSU. And for Tennessee last year, as you’ll see, it’s what could’ve been that stands out.

Again, I don’t think beating Georgia State and/or BYU would’ve changed Tennessee’s postseason destiny last year; I think 9-3 Tennessee is still playing Indiana in the Gator Bowl the way the conference shook out, so maybe you take the lessons instead. But the Vols, of course, settled for a pair of field goals in the middle portion of the Georgia State game. And against BYU (and Mississippi State, and Indiana), Tennessee failed to jump on a team early, missing a pair of chances for a two-possession lead on the Cougars.

One outlier stat: Tennessee threw four interceptions in the red zone last year, most in the nation. But two of those were from Brian Maurer in the Mississippi State game, when he may or may not have had a concussion. A third was a ball Jauan Jennings caught just about every other time in his career in the Florida game. I’m not overly worried about Guarantano throwing picks in the end zone. But we also know he can’t go to #15 and #1 anymore. Jennings was fifth nationally with 118 yards in the red zone last year, his seven touchdowns tied for tenth, and he had eight other catches for a first down, fourth nationally. So figuring out who that guy is for Guarantano is job number one.

Two years ago Tennessee was one of the worst short yardage rushing teams in the nation. Now the Vols should have the horses, up front and in the backfield, to be a terror there. So perhaps an answer to all this is just line up and go right at them, and leave less up to the passing game inside the 20. The Vols don’t necessarily have to be spectacular here; even an average red zone performance last year likely makes the difference in two outcomes. But finding out who Guarantano can look for inside the 20 – and on third down, where Jennings was also one of the nation’s best – could be the biggest key to Tennessee’s red zone success in 2020.

Every 2019 Red Zone series

(via ESPN play-by-play data)

Georgia State – Four appearances, two touchdowns:

• 1Q GSU 7-0: Touchdown
• 2Q Tied 14-14: FG as half expires; from 2nd-&-Goal at the 3, Vols went incomplete, interception overturned by pass interference, incomplete, FG
• Early 4Q GSU 21-20: FG to take the lead; pass complete to Austin Pope for no gain on 3rd-and-2 at the 14
• Late 4Q GSU 38-23: Touchdown pass with two seconds left

BYU – Four appearances, two touchdowns:

• 1Q 0-0: Touchdown (Jennings bobbled catch), went for it on 4th-and-3 at the 5
• 2Q Vols 7-3: Turnover on downs, Eric Gray stopped on 4th-and-1 at the 19
• Early 4Q Vols 13-10: FG; 1st-and-Goal at the 9 led to run for zero, Guarantano run for 4, incomplete
• OT1 BYU 23-16: Touchdown, Guarantano to Jennings on 3rd-and-10 at the 13

Chattanooga – Four appearances, three touchdowns:

• 1Q 0-0: Touchdown
• 1Q 14-0: Touchdown
• 2Q 35-0: FG (J.T. Shrout drive)
• 3Q 38-0: Touchdown (Brian Maurer drive)

Florida – Two appearances, zero touchdowns:

• 1Q 7-0 FLA: Interception in the end zone (bobbled by Jennings)
• 3Q 17-0 FLA: FG (Brian Maurer drive)

Georgia – Two appearances, one touchdown:

• 2Q 10-7 UGA: Touchdown (Maurer to Jennings)
• Late 4Q 43-14 UGA: Turnover on downs, Guarantano four straight incompletions from the five yard line

Mississippi State – Four appearances, one touchdown:

• 1Q 0-0: Interception in the end zone (Maurer)
• 1Q 0-0: Touchdown, Tim Jordan 15-yard run
• 2Q 7-3 Vols: Interception in the end zone (Maurer)
• 3Q 10-3 Vols: FG, Guarantano drive, three Tim Jordan runs for eight yards from 1st-and-10 at the 13

Alabama – Four appearances, one touchdown:

• 1Q 7-0 Bama: Touchdown (Maurer two yard run)
• 2Q 14-7 Bama: FG (Maurer injured this drive); Vols had 1st-and-Goal at the 5 and went false start, no gain, holding, two incomplete passes
• 3Q 21-10 Bama: FG; holding on 1st-and-Goal at the 7
• 4Q 28-13 Bama: COVER YOUR EYES! Fumble returned for TD on Guarantano sneak; Vols had 1st-and-Goal at the 2 but couldn’t get in on three previous runs

South Carolina – Three appearances, one touchdown:

• 2Q 7-3 USC: Turnover on downs, 3rd-and-Goal at the 1 led to no gain, incomplete. 17 play drive, no points, but ensuing punt was returned for a TD
• 3Q 21-17 USC: Touchdown, Jennings back-of-end-zone incredible catch, Guarantano hurt
• Early 4Q 31-21 Vols: FG

UAB – Five appearances, three touchdowns:

• 1Q 0-0: FG (UAB intercepted on first play, Vols from the 19 went one yard, no gain, incomplete with Shrout playing QB)
• 1Q 3-0 Vols: Touchdown
• 2Q 16-0 Vols: Touchdown
• 2Q 23-0 Vols: Interception in the end zone (Guarantano)
• 3Q 23-0 Vols: Touchdown

Kentucky – Three appearances, two touchdowns:

• 2Q 13-0 UK: FG (Maurer)
• 3Q 13-3 UK: Touchdown (Guarantano)
• 3Q 13-10 UK: Touchdown (Guarantano)

Missouri – Five appearances, three touchdowns:

• 1Q 3-0 MIZ: Missed FG
• 2Q 3-0 MIZ: Touchdown
• 2Q 10-7 MIZ: Touchdown
• 2Q 14-10 Vols: FG as half expires
• 3Q 17-17: Touchdown

Vanderbilt – Two appearances, two touchdowns:

• 2Q 7-3 Vols: Touchdown
• Mid 4Q 21-10 Vols: Touchdown

Indiana – Five appearances, two touchdowns:

• 1Q 0-0: Turnover on downs, incomplete on 4th-and-Goal from the 2
• 2Q 0-0: FG
• 2Q 3-0 Vols: FG
• Late 4Q 22-9 IU: Touchdown
• Late 4Q 22-16 IU: Touchdown

The answer may surprise you!

When we get excited about the 2020 Vols, the conversation usually centers on the offensive line, or the individual breakout potential of sophomores Eric Gray and Henry To’o To’o. But one of our favorite big picture metrics heavily favors the Tennessee defense.

Bill Connelly’s SP+ ratings got a Week 1 update at ESPN.com this week. Tennessee checks in at 19th, with the usual caveat of, “Yeah, but we play five of the Top 11.” The biggest takeaway in the new ratings to me: while Tennessee’s offense is a pedestrian 50th overall, the defense is sixth. Not in the SEC. In the nation. With all 130 teams accounted for.

(A quick reality check here: Georgia is first at 6.8, miles ahead of #2 Oregon at 12.1. So any conversation on, “Does Tennessee have one of college football’s best defenses,” would start with, “After Georgia, of course.”)

It feels like the Vols lost their most productive player in getting to the quarterback (Darrell Taylor), in setting up the defense (Daniel Bituli), and in the secondary (Nigel Warrior). But the strength of Tennessee’s 2019 defense (which finished 19th in SP+) was less about individual accolades – with one notable exception – and more about the basic building blocks the 2020 defense could replicate:

• No big plays. The 2019 Vols finished first in the nation in 30+ yard plays allowed and first in 30+ passing plays allowed (data via SportSource Analytics). Last year Tennessee allowed just 10 plays of 30+ yards. By comparison, in 2016 the Vols allowed 37 plays of 30+ yards.
• Interceptions. Nigel Warrior led the way with four, but Bryce Thompson added three and seven other Vols got one as well. Fifteen interceptions last season was good for 13th nationally, the most for Tennessee since 2014.
• Solid finish all around. In the 2-5 start, Tennessee allowed 5.44 yards per play. In the 6-0 finish, Tennessee allowed 4.51 yards per play, with none of the victims in that streak getting more than five yards per play against the Vol defense.

Even without Taylor, Bituli, and Warrior, can the 2020 Vols follow that same blueprint? The biggest question to answer: who gets to the quarterback? Darrell Taylor had 8.5 of Tennessee’s 34 sacks, also their highest total since 2014. The Vols seem unlikely to put a pass rusher in the first two rounds of the 2021 NFL Draft. Can a committee replace some/all of that production?

On the other hand, there’s also room for improvement. Tennessee was average on third down last year, allowing a conversion on 39.34% of opponent attempts, 68th nationally. A year ago yesterday, Georgia State went 10-of-17 on third down against the Vols. Alabama went 6-of-10 in Tuscaloosa before we even throw in the referees; Georgia was 5-of-11. But again in the winning streak, Tennessee made significant strides: South Carolina went 4-of-18, Missouri 4-of-15, Indiana 4-of-13. There’s a whole chunk here about the quality of offense the Vols faced in that winning streak. But if we’re finding nice things to say about the new SEC schedule, outside of Alabama the Vols won’t face anything like the Oklahoma offense we lost.

If Jeremy Pruitt, Derrick Ansley, and the defensive staff continue to get improvement from the returning pieces, the Vols could keep doing those building blocks well while finding critical improvement on third down. The sack totals will probably come down without Darrell Taylor, but the defense overall could still be noticeably better in 2020. Be great again at taking away explosive plays, create turnovers in similar fashion, and improve on third down? That’s the makings of a great defense.

We don’t often outright credit the defense for individual wins at the end of last year, not beyond a goal line stop at Kentucky that probably doesn’t get enough praise. And maybe enough upperclassman star power was lost to not make us think of it as a unit that can go out there and win games by itself. But if we’re looking for realistic versions of how the Vols make significant progress in 2020? A defense that leads the way might be more of a factor than we’re giving it credit for.