Two bits of good news this week: the Pac-12 is back, giving as full a meaning and purpose to our college football institutions as is available in 2020. The College Football Playoff will select from a full field, though they’ll now have the unenviable task of picking four teams from (at least) five conferences that didn’t play the same number of games. ESPN’s FPI currently projects conference championship games that include something like 10-1 Clemson vs 9-2 Notre Dame, 9-1 Alabama vs 8-2 Georgia, 9-1 Texas vs 8-2 Oklahoma, and 7-1 Ohio State vs 7-1 Wisconsin. In such a mess, I’m not sure any team that doesn’t win its division would have enough of an argument to get in, but I’m sure that won’t stop anyone from trying.
The Pac-12’s return also puts the polls in their proper historical context. Tennessee is ranked 16th in the AP poll, which doesn’t include Big Ten/Pac-12 teams, and 21st in the coaches’ poll, which doesn’t include the Pac-12. It’s probably most helpful to think of the Vols at #25, their preseason ranking, and go from there. But at least the final polls will include the all the major options.
Those final polls are one way to measure a season that will surely need some additional data than the final record. 6-4 will be worth much more than it normally would with everyone playing a more difficult schedule. And you could also have a host of teams with the same record, all a little unsure how to feel about it. So that’s where the second bit of good news this week comes in: not only does it appear we’re still getting bowl games this year, but everyone is eligible. Taken out by the virus at 3-7? Welcome to Shreveport, baby!
We all deserve a participation ribbon this year; I’ve got no problem with it. But more to the point, the possibility of a bowl trip we’d normally be excited about, even if it’s light on the trip portion this year, can help validate a good result for Tennessee.
If everybody hit their most likely outcome, the SEC would finish like this:
SEC East
- Florida/Georgia winner at 8-2
- Florida/Georgia loser at 8-2
- Tennessee/Kentucky winner at 5-5
- Tennessee/Kentucky loser at 5-5
- South Carolina 4-6
- Missouri 3-7
- Vanderbilt 0-10
SEC West
- Alabama 8-2
- Texas A&M 7-3
- Auburn/LSU winner at 6-4
- Auburn/LSU loser at 6-4
- Ole Miss 4-6
- Mississippi State 3-7
- Arkansas 1-9
Let’s assume the SEC Champion is making the playoff either way, even with two losses. In this scenario, we might find the loser in Atlanta and the second place SEC East team also making the New Year’s Six. If the traditional structure holds, 7-3 Texas A&M would be the Citrus Bowl pick, and the 5-5 Vols would find themselves in the group of six bowls, with Nashville the most likely destination.
But if the Vols got to 6-4, they might find themselves a prime candidate for the Outback Bowl. A 6-4 season that ended with a shot at, say, Michigan in what would join our 2015 (and 2006, and 2007) Tampa appearance as Tennessee’s most prestigious bowl destination since 2004? That would give some extra juice to 6-4.
In a year when final record will be a terrible way to compare teams from one conference to another but a much better way to compare teams from the same conference, every win could make a big difference come bowl time. Our best benchmarks for forward progress this year remain:
- Having a real chance to win every single Saturday
- Staying in the SEC East race deep into the season
But if Tampa (or Orlando!) is out there as a reasonable destination? Everyone deserves the participation ribbon, but the Outback or Citrus Bowl would be an excellent exclamation point for Tennessee this year, and they could get there at 6-4 or better.
I wonder how the schedule will affect this process. We don’t have the frontloaded schedule that we usually do, with FL, AL, and GA in the first four conference games, and VU, UK, and Mizzou to finish the season. Will we be able to hold on longer because we don’t start the conference slate down 0-3?