Author Archives: Will Shelton

Alabama’s offense may not be operating at 2018-2020 levels, but it’s still plenty capable. The Tide are third nationally at 7.49 yards per play (the Vols are seventh at 7.21). And their tests – at Texas, at Arkansas, Texas A&M – are comparable to our own. While the Aggies got most of the usual Bama upset script – turnovers, missed field goals, etc. – it’s the Texas performance that offers the most hope for a defense. The Longhorns forced Alabama to punt on six consecutive drives, unheard of in the second half of Nick Saban’s administration.

Against those Tua Tagovailoa teams, there was real truth in saying that any drive that didn’t end in a touchdown was success for a defense. This time around, the window of opportunity is certainly wider. And the good news there: Tennessee’s defense continues to be far more opportunistic than last year.

Tennessee’s Defense & Drive-Ending Success, 2021 vs 2022

• Third Down Conversions Allowed 2022: 32%, 33rd nationally
• Third Down Conversions Allowed 2021: 42%, 101st nationally
• Fourth Down Conversions Allowed 2022: 50%, 47th nationally
• Fourth Down Conversions Allowed 2021: 54%, 76th nationally
• Turnovers Forced 2022: 10, 36th nationally (7th among teams playing only five games)
• Turnovers Forced 2021: 16, 68th nationally
• Red Zone Scoring Percentage Allowed 2022: 65%, 7th nationally
• Red Zone Scoring Percentage Allowed 2021: 92%, 121st nationally
• Red Zone TD Percentage Allowed 2022: 40%, 12th nationally
• Red Zone TD Percentage Allowed 2021: 72%, 119th nationally

Assumptions we might’ve developed about what kind of defense a Josh Heupel team will play? Those were clearly based too much on year one. In every way, this Tennessee defense is not only better, but downright great in crucial areas.

Teams have gone for it on fourth down 16 times against the Vols, the second-highest total in the nation among teams playing just five games. Add this odd fact into the mix: Alabama has only gone for it on fourth down eight times this year, and three of them came against Louisiana-Monroe. Will Bama operate with the same urgency in going for it against the Vols? Or will they assume their own defense will handle it (and, from their perspective, why wouldn’t they)?

In their biggest games, how many times did defenses get off the field without giving up a touchdown against the Crimson Tide?

Alabama Offense Drive Results vs Texas, Arkansas & Texas A&M

Opponent	TDs	FGs	TOs	Punts	4th
Texas	2	2	0	6	0
Arkansas	7	1	1	3	1
Texas A&M	3	3	4	4	0
TOTAL	12	6	5	13	1

This, of course, is around 50% Bryce Young and 50% Jalen Milroe. But given the success Texas’ defense had, it really balances out overall. There have been a decent number of opportunities to get off the field for teams who can take advantage, and the Vols have been not just better, but really good at getting off the field.

So, just for fun…

Tennessee Offense Drive Results vs Pitt, Florida & LSU

Opponent	TDs	FGs	TOs	Punts	4th
Pitt	3	2	1	6	1
Florida	5	1	2	0	1
LSU	4	5	0	2	0
TOTAL	12	8	3	8	2

We expect Tennessee’s offense to have its moments. But Tennessee’s defense could find themselves making more of those moments than we might have thought possible just a few short weeks ago.

The Vols are 5-0, and we will in all likelihood see their expected win total rise to 10-2 becoming the most likely outcome. Last week our community put that number at 9.26 expected regular season wins, and that was before the 40-13 beat down in Baton Rouge.

We’ve been running the win total machine since 2017, so we don’t have the apples to apples comparison available with 2016, the last time UT started 5-0. The Vols were #9 headed to Texas A&M that season, and stayed there to face Alabama the following week. This obviously turned out to be an incorrect assumption, but there was a belief at the time that UT’s schedule would become much, much easier after the Aggies and Tide.

All that to say: would our expected win total for the 2016 Vols going into Texas A&M have been higher than what it will be right now? There is, of course, no way to know for sure. Those Vols beat unranked (but later ranked) Virginia Tech on a neutral field, #19 Florida, and #25 Texas A&M Georgia (duh). These Vols won at #17 Pittsburgh, beat #20 Florida, and blew out #25 LSU on the road. These Vols also have defending national champion Kirby Smart instead of year one Kirby Smart on the schedule.

Anyway, I do think that 2016 group would’ve found themselves in the 10-win projection neighborhood going to A&M. And I think we’re going to find the same here.

We’ve also had so many years of doing this where we asked ourselves, “Is 5% too high for Alabama?” After being +13 against Bama in 2016, the last few years Tennessee has faced lines of +36, +29, +34, +21, and +25. Right now, it’s at +7.5.

Fun week ahead. Enjoy it.

The Vols go to #6 in the AP poll, continuing their highest climb of the post-Fulmer era. There are a couple of different ways to look at it from here.

This is technically Tennessee’s highest ranking since 2005, when the Vols opened the year at #3 in the preseason poll. A near miss with UAB in the opener left Tennessee at #5 when it lost in The Swamp two weeks later.

If we’re looking for the last time Tennessee was at #6 or better deeper into the season? The 2003 Vols went to #7 after starting league play 2-0 with wins over Florida and South Carolina. They fell all the way to #22 after back-to-back losses to Auburn and Georgia. But the win at Miami pushed them back into the Top 10. That team was 10-2 and ranked #6 at the end of the regular season, got the (very) short end of the bowl selection process, and lost to Clemson in the Peach Bowl.

If we’re looking for the last time Tennessee was #6 in October? That’s 1999, technically: the defending national champs were #2 before losing at Florida, when they dropped to #7. They opened October at #6, but scored a pair of Top 10 wins over Georgia and Alabama, moving them to #3 heading to November. But Arkansas got revenge in Fayetteville, knocking them out of the BCS title chase.

But I think the most recent comparison right now is probably 2001: #6 heading into October, then the Hobnailed Boot. That loss, of course, ultimately cost the Vols nothing: Tennessee climbed from #13 all the way back to #5 in the AP poll, #4 in the BCS, when they went to Gainesville to face #2 Florida in the last week of the regular season.

And that game might also be the answer to, “This Saturday is Tennessee’s biggest game since…”

We looked at the highest ranked vs ranked games at UT since 1968 in our LSU postgame. Alabama’s close call with Texas A&M and the uncertain status of Bryce Young sent the Tide to #3 in today’s AP poll, but a 3 vs 6 matchup is still tied for the 10th on that list.

In terms of where a win would rank, we usually find ourselves saying we still need the full picture of the season. Tennessee’s last win to truly stand the full test of time in meaning and memory is the 2007 regular season finale at Kentucky, when the Vols beat the Cats in four overtimes to win the SEC East. The 2016 wins over Florida and Georgia are good teachers in how we can’t say the 2022 win over Florida (or yesterday, for that matter) are the biggest x since y just yet. What felt at the time to be program-changing ended up being bittersweet. We need to see the full picture of Tennessee’s season to fully evaluate a streak-busting win over #20 Florida or a blowout at #25 LSU.

But trust me, if Tennessee beats Alabama in a Top Six matchup? We’ll have plenty of fun entering it into the “best win since…” conversation immediately.

The Vols have been to Atlanta three times since that 2001 win in The Swamp; if you want to say any of those was a bigger game than this Saturday coming in, you’ve got a good argument. Some of it is just the calendar: we’re not entirely sure what a win or a loss to Alabama will do in the final calculus. The Vols will still control their own destiny in the SEC East no matter what they do this week. There are legitimate playoff conversations to be had in just about any outcome. It’s much easier to say how big a game is when it takes place in Atlanta; even though the Vols were out of the national championship conversation (and underdogs to the eventual champions and/or undefeated teams) in two of those three appearances, you’re still literally sixty minutes away from an SEC title. The Vols will be a little farther from that particular glory this weekend, even if they blow the Tide out.

But in terms of the national conversation, a top six showdown, and this old, old friend of a rivalry…if you want to argue this is Tennessee’s biggest game since 2001 Florida? You’ve also got a good argument.

And that would make it Tennessee’s biggest game in Knoxville since…

…1998?

Enjoy your week.

We all know what’s coming next. We’ve got a whole week to do that.

And we all know where we’ve been, which is a huge part of what makes where we are so incredible. More on that in a bit.

But this team continues to be most about the present tense. And today, Tennessee gave us the kind of game we haven’t seen since…

…well, again, the comparisons would be so very long ago, and take away from the present. Let’s resist for at least a moment.

The Vols got their third ranked win of the season. But where Pittsburgh and Florida came down to the final play, today Tennessee asserted themselves with the quickness. And one hidden truth of the Pitt and Florida games not only came to light, but turned in Tennessee’s favor.

Against the Panthers, Tennessee fumbled, muffed a punt, and had a punt blocked in the last 1.5 quarters of regulation. The Gators, of course, recovered an onside kick. Credit the opposition for their role in those things, but they’re also components of football that involve a higher degree of luck than your average play. And when you put all those plays together? Snap for snap, Tennessee was the clearly better team both times.

Today, the Vols got the other end of those special teams plays, early and often. They left Tennessee with a 10-0 lead less than four minutes in. Credit LSU for keeping the game within reach for the remainder of the first half; on the day, they forced five Tennessee field goals. Credit Chase McGrath for making four of them, an upright away from making five.

And that’s the thing: Tennessee attempted five field goals and punted twice. We can do this better.

And the Vols won 40-13.

We won 40-13 because Tennessee’s defense did the following:

• Three-and-out
• A stop on 4th-and-4 at the 14
• A stop on 4th-and-1 near midfield
• A punt after a 3rd-and-4 sack from Byron Young
• LSU TD
• A stop on 4th-and-10 near midfield on another sack from Byron Young, giving the Vols eight yards to the good and another field goal just before halftime
• A punt after a 3rd-and-8 sack from, you guessed it, Byron Young on LSU’s first drive of the third quarter
• Three-and-out
• LSU TD
• End zone INT

The Vols outgained the Tigers 502 to 355. Tennessee did it with balance – 239 in the air, 263 on the ground – and where the Tigers went 0-for-3 on fourth down, the Vols were a Les Milesian 3-for-3.

Jabari Small followed his 90 yards against the Gators with 122 in Baton Rouge, the second-highest total of his career. Without Cedric Tillman once again, Bru McCoy provided the quantity with seven catches for 140 yards. And Jalin Hyatt provided the quality alongside Hendon Hooker:

https://twitter.com/PFF_College/status/1578790772174127104

The Vols, favored by three, won by 27 in Baton Rouge.

“Are we back?!”

I’ve been thinking a bit about one of the least talked about games in one of our most talked about seasons. It wasn’t least talked about on the way in: six years ago, #1 Alabama came to Knoxville to face #9 Tennessee. The Vols were banged up, and coming to the end of an impossible stretch of opponents and emotions. We don’t talk about it, in part, because more infamous things happened to the Vols later in that season. And, in part, because Alabama dominated, again. The Vols were +13 at kickoff on that day; I’ll be curious to see the comparison tomorrow.

But that, already, was the highest-ranked Third Saturday in October ever.

And as long as Alabama doesn’t do something strange tonight, next week will top it.

But as much as the Alabama rivalry means to us, even it isn’t the lone qualifier.

The opportunity that was before Tennessee six years ago came at the midpoint of year four under Butch Jones. It came through wins that will last forever on their own: Florida, Georgia, a unique environment with Virginia Tech. And the reasons the 2016 season itself won’t last forever came later with South Carolina and Vanderbilt. But year four also carried some of the frustrations of year three, when the Vols went 9-4 but were close to so much more.

And at the same time, those two seasons and those two 9-4s are the best it’s been around here in 15 years. No single-season breakthrough. In those 15 years, Tennessee’s three biggest rivals have won eight national championships. There have been so few opportunities for the kind of thing we saw Texas do to Oklahoma today, a statement win in a series that matters. The Longhorns may not be back to the rest of us, but I’m sure it feels like they are on their own terms today. Good for them!

But we are an Alabama win tonight away from Tennessee being back to everyone in the country this week.

In 15 years, we never found the middle ground between 9-4s in years three and four, and true national relevance. Almost all of our resets via coaching change were strange, the last two in both quality and quantity and carrying with them a change in athletic director. The Vols spent an entire month at the end of the 2020 season not knowing who their head coach would be in 2021. Tennessee seemed more vulnerable than ever.

In year one, the Vols blew out Missouri and South Carolina, the first signs of life. They showed an incredible atmosphere was still possible against Ole Miss. And they beat a ranked team, taking down #18 Kentucky, before finishing 7-6. Those were good first steps.

And now, it feels like we’ve skipped several again.

Because next Saturday, Tennessee is going to find itself on the following list.

On January 1, 1968, #2 Tennessee played #3 Oklahoma in the Orange Bowl. Since then – 55 years – here are the highest ranked vs ranked games the University of Tennessee has played in:

Highest Ranked vs Ranked Games since 1968

• 1998: #1 Tennessee vs #2 Florida State (BCS Championship) (W 23-16)
• 1997: #2 Nebraska vs #3 Tennessee (Orange Bowl) (L 42-17)
• 1996: #2 Tennessee vs #4 Florida (L 35-29)
• 1997: #2 Florida vs #4 Tennessee (L 33-20)
• 1999: #2 Tennessee at #4 Florida (L 23-21)
• 2001: #2 Florida vs #5 Tennessee (W 34-32)
• 1990: #3 Auburn vs #5 Tennessee (T 26-26)
• 1995: #4 Tennessee vs #4 Ohio State (Citrus Bowl) (W 20-14)
• 1998: #2 Florida at #6 Tennessee (W 20-17 OT)
• 1999: #3 Nebraska vs #6 Tennessee (Fiesta Bowl) (L 31-21)

If Alabama wins tonight, next week is going to be, from a national standpoint, one of the ten biggest games Tennessee has played in for most of our lifetimes.

That’s the list for me. That’s the test. That’s the question, and we’ll spend the week trying to figure out how Tennessee will answer it.

You can think whatever you want about “back”; that’s a question we already learned we can’t really even answer until the entire story of this season has been written. This team has skipped so many steps in this rebuild – in that rebuild? – comparisons are hard to come by.

So never mind back.

The Vols are here.

Beat Bama.

This week, Tennessee fans give the Vols a 60.7% chance to beat LSU in Baton Rouge in our Expected Win Total Machine. The season expectation creeps north again this week, currently at 9.26 wins in the regular season:

If the Vols do tame the Tigers, it’ll make three ranked wins on the still-young season. That’s a feat Tennessee hasn’t pulled since 2016. And going back through the media guide, you realize pretty quickly how three ranked wins in one year is a bigger deal than our memories probably give it credit for.

The AP poll expanded to 25 teams in 1989, which is a convenient starting point for Tennessee anyway. In those last 33 seasons, the Vols have only beaten three ranked teams in the same year a dozen times. The 1998 Vols have the record at six, followed by 2001 and 1991 with four. The ’91 Vols also played a UT record seven ranked vs ranked games. But this Tennessee team is getting close to making not just recent history, but joining lists that include some of our favorite teams ever.

Tennessee Teams with Three+ Ranked Wins since 1989

• 2016: #19 Florida, #25 Georgia, #24 Nebraska
• 2007: #12 Georgia, #15 South Carolina, #18 Wisconsin
• 2004: #11 Florida, #3 Georgia, #22 Texas A&M
• 2001: #14 LSU, #12 South Carolina, #2 Florida, #17 Michigan
• 1999: #10 Georgia, #10 Alabama, #24 Notre Dame
• 1998: #17 Syracuse, #2 Florida, #7 Georgia, #10 Arkansas, #23 Mississippi State, #2 Florida State
• 1997: #13 Georgia, #24 Southern Miss, #11 Auburn
• 1995: #18 Arkansas, #12 Alabama, #4 Ohio State
• 1994: #23 Georgia, #17 Washington State, #17 Virginia Tech
• 1992: #14 Georgia, #4 Florida, #16 Boston College
• 1991: #21 UCLA, #23 Mississippi State, #13 Auburn, #5 Notre Dame
• 1989: #6 UCLA, #4 Auburn, #10 Arkansas

One thing you’ll notice about this list too: seven of these teams got their third ranked win in the bowl game. Of this group, only 2001, 1999, 1998, and 1991 got three or more ranked wins in the regular season; 1997 got their third in the SEC title game.

I realize beating #17 Pittsburgh, #20 Florida, and #25 LSU would still leave Tennessee without a Top 15 win, but there are plenty of chances to do that coming soon. On quantity alone, a win in Baton Rouge would put the 2022 Vols in very good company.

The lines between “this is our best season since…” and “…this is one of our better seasons, period” are getting blurrier by the week.

Go Vols.

There’s a temptation to say, “Anytime our defense doesn’t give up a touchdown, that’s a win.” It’s a reflection of the offense, currently operating at levels we really have no context for. My favorite stat of the moment: the national leaders in passing yards per attempt are two service academies with 71 combined throws in nine games.

The Vols are third, with 1,463 yards on 130 throws, 11.3 yards per attempt. Only three other teams are north of 10.

And Tennessee does all that while completing 73.8% of its passes, also third nationally. Only five other teams in America are yet to throw an interception, and again, one of them is a service academy. In efficiency, explosiveness, security, you name it, Tennessee is doing it better than anyone right now. It is truly remarkable.

So, when an offense does that, what does a defense need to do?

This is where small improvements can go a long way. And so far, one of the things Tennessee’s defense struggled with the most in 2021 has become a true strength in 2022.

Tennessee Red Zone Defense

• 2021: 50 red zone attempts, 46 scores (92%, 121st nationally), 36 TDs (72%, 119th nationally)
• 2022: 16 red zone attempts, 11 scores (69%, 16th nationally), 6 TDs (38%, 7th nationally)

The Vols have already turned teams away with no points more than they did in all of last season. When we wrote on this in the off-season, we talked about how even a small improvement here could be significant. And it’s not a statistic inflated by inferior competition: Ball State scored on both its red zone trips, Akron on two of three.

But we’ve seen both parts of a red zone defense’s strength in the power five games. At Pitt, the Panthers had five red zone visits but scored just a single touchdown. Against Florida, the Gators scored four red zone touchdowns, but came away with no points at all two other times: the fourth down stop on the game’s opening drive, and the forced fumble early in the fourth quarter.

(Tennessee’s offense, by the way: 22 red zone visits, 19 touchdowns and three field goals, getting points 100% of the time.)

The last Vol defense to keep opponents out of the end zone on more than half of their red zone visits: Monte Kiffin’s 2009 defense, which allowed 20 touchdowns on 44 visits (45%, 18th nationally). In the last ten years, only the 2015 defense hit better than 60% (23 touchdowns on 41 visits, 56%).

Tennessee’s defense has made a similar significant improvement on third down, so far giving up just 17-of-60 conversion attempts (28%, 16th nationally). But it doesn’t feel that way because teams are 8-of-13 on fourth down against UT. Those 13 attempts lead the nation among teams who’ve played only four games. I’m sure there’s a component here of offenses feeling like they have to try against us because of the potency of our own offense.

What does an offense like this need from its defense? If the Vols keep turning teams away in the red zone at a rate even close to 50% of the time, that could create all the separation we need. Tennessee still has just a pair of one-possession wins, but in SP+ they had a 92% win expectancy against the Gators, and 89% at Pitt. Translation: the Vols could be winning these games by even more, if we can avoid pesky things like fumbles and onside kicks.

For whatever conversation has taken place about what this defense can do better this week? It’s what they’re already doing so much better in the part of the field that matters most that should stand out more. It can help the offense continue to stretch their legs and their lead. And whether in Baton Rouge, against #1 Alabama or beyond, holding teams to three instead of seven (or continuing to turn them away entirely!) could keep making the difference in wins and losses for the undefeated Vols.

LSU squeaked past Auburn and into the poll, coming in at #25 this week. It sets up the third ranked vs ranked game of this still-young season for Tennessee, and a chance for Josh Heupel to get his fourth ranked win overall.

In 2016, the Vols played four ranked vs ranked games in four weeks. Outside of that fateful stretch, Tennessee played just four other ranked vs ranked games from 2008-2021: one each in 2012, 2015, 2017, and 2020. In the 19 previous seasons from 1989-2007, the Vols averaged 4.4 ranked vs ranked games per year, and never played fewer than three.

With #1 Alabama, #13 Kentucky, and #2 Georgia still to come in the next five weeks, we’ve got a shot at some strength of schedule history. The Vols have played 5+ ranked vs ranked games in a single season 10 times in school history. They hit six in 1998, with 1991 holding the record at seven. Plenty of football left out there this year, but the Vols and their competition continue to look strong.

The season heads to Baton Rouge this week, with the #8 Vols opening as a four-point favorite. How are you feeling this week on Tennessee’s chances to tame the Tigers? And how many wins will we project for Tennessee this week, after landing at 9.21 during the bye week?

Every season tells a story, and a new chapter is written each week. In preseason, our Expected Win Total Machine had the Vols at 8.03 wins, just barely tipping the scales to 9-3 being more likely than 7-5. But 8-4 – which would tie the best record at Tennessee in the last 15 years – was the clear cut expectation.

One month and two huge wins in, 9-3 has become the clear cut expectation. And 10-2 is significantly more likely than 8-4 in this week’s responses:

So our best season in 15 years has become the baseline expectation. And there’s still a better chance of reaching the ceiling than the floor from here.

Tennessee continues to find itself in the Sugar Bowl in many a bowl projection. That’s still most often attached to projections that send both Georgia and Alabama to the College Football Playoff. If that happens, the third best team in the SEC is going to New Orleans. And this week, Tennessee looks the part.

The Vols will have their own opportunity to answer questions about whether that third best team is actually Kentucky (or LSU, for that matter). But it’s been helpful to see other candidates who are not on Tennessee’s schedule already take losses: Texas A&M to Appalachian State, then Arkansas to Texas A&M. Auburn now seems fully removed from that conversation.

Keep an eye on Ole Miss. Should the Rebels beat Kentucky in Oxford tomorrow, their other cross-divisional game is their annual date with Vanderbilt. So a win tomorrow likely means Ole Miss just needs to go 4-2 against the SEC West to end the season at 10-2.

A 9-3 finish for Tennessee would almost certainly end nowhere worse than the Citrus Bowl. But it can also get to New Orleans if Georgia and Alabama are in the playoffs and there’s not another 10-2 SEC squad out there somewhere.

I think there’s also a good conversation in here about Tennessee’s historical methods of defining success, and how to marry them with the changing realities of the SEC and college football. A 9-3 finish speaks for itself, since the Vols haven’t done that since 2007. If you want to talk about the Vols going 10-2 themselves, that’s a conversation for after you’ve beaten LSU, because then we’re likely talking about an expected win total greater than 9.5.

Beating LSU would also leave the Vols in control of their own destiny in the SEC East no matter the outcome of the Alabama game. That’s the first old goal: the idea that any season ending in Atlanta was a successful one. But things have changed in this division since 2007, or even 2016. Georgia’s place as defending national champions and top team in the country, depending on who you ask, is a new variable in the equation.

So we wouldn’t define the season’s full success or failure by whether the Vols win the division. But if you want to entertain the argument? You can do so even if you lose to Alabama, so long as the Vols beat LSU. The Vols would then need to beat Kentucky to keep that conversation going, but the Top 10 Cats should hold enough weight on their own to avoid the lookahead.

We’ll get our chance to shoot our shot against Georgia and Alabama; plenty to talk about in those weeks, and plenty to talk about next week headed to Baton Rouge. But in the big picture on the bye week, consider the goals Tennessee’s athletic department now sets for itself: in addition to winning SEC and national championships, earning Top 16 finishes is in the master plan. While that translates to Sweet 16 and Super Regional appearances in tournament sports, it will roughly translate to, “Can we make the playoffs?” in college football very soon.

Consider the conversations we would be having if the 12-team playoff format was in place right now. We’d still need to see more before we felt like the Vols could straight up beat Alabama or Georgia with greater certainty, and thus need to see more before we felt like the Vols could win the title. But in the current format, there are only four seats at that table to begin with. In a 12-team format, we still might be talking about the difference between 9-3 and 10-2 for the Vols…but we might also be talking about making the playoffs instead of making the Sugar Bowl.

Either way, present or future, the Vols are fully on track for a memorable season. The expectation now is that it’s our best in 15 years. And in the direction college football is headed, we would find ourselves in the conversations every team in the country wants to be in.

Much, much more to come.

Go Vols.

It’s Wednesday post-Florida, and much of the conversation around town feels like it’s on concerns with our pass defense. That’s not all bad! Way to keep moving forward and focus on how we can improve!

But in the bye week, I’m going to stay in celebration mode, thanks. Let’s spend another minute talking about that offensive performance from Saturday before we have to move on to LSU. Because what the Vols did – and did to Florida – wasn’t any other Saturday.

With Josh Heupel’s offense, we’ve come to expect fireworks. Just last week the Vols sliced up Akron for 9.66 yards per play and 63 points. Even early in year two, it’s easier to take things for granted.

And even in leaner years, we’ve seen some great offensive performances around here. Jeremy Pruitt’s 2019 team featured three 100-yard receivers in a single game, now all in the NFL. The 2016 Vols led the nation in yards per play in the month of November. And Tyler Bray’s 2012 Vols still hold a number of school records from their performance against Troy.

You can also find some truly absurd performances from out best days against bad teams. Tee Martin’s NCAA record-setting performance at South Carolina in 1998 came at 8.9 yards per play for the offense. The school record in yards per play is from the 2000 win over Kentucky, where freshman Casey Clausen threw for 362, Travis Henry ran for 139, and Travis Stephens added 93 more. The Vols averaged 10.93 yards per play.

We’ve also seen some single-game performances that were both extraordinary and important: Josh Dobbs and the Vols at South Carolina in 2014, or even what Tennessee did at Missouri last season to kick-start a ride we’re still on.

But it’s one thing to dominate against lesser competition, and another to do what the Vols did on a stage like Saturday’s.

So where does the offense’s performance against the Gators rank?

I’ve really enjoyed going back through old media guides and Tennessee’s online stats the last few days to try to put Saturday into context. To me, the most jarring stat is Tennessee’s 8.23 yards per play. How does that compare to the best the Vols have done against ranked foes? Here’s the list:

Top 10 Tennessee Offensive Performances 1989-2022

(Yards Per Play vs Ranked Teams)

10. 2001: #8 Tennessee 45 #17 Michigan 17 (Citrus Bowl) (6.99 yards per play)

Casey Clausen went for 393 yards and five touchdowns, Jason Witten outran the Michigan secondary, and the Vols ended the day with 503 total yards. Tennessee scored its 45th and final points with 13 minutes still to play.

9. 1994: Tennessee 45 #17 Virginia Tech 23 (Gator Bowl) (7.07 yards per play)

The finale of Peyton Manning’s freshman season was also the final performance for James “Little Man” Stewart, who ran for three touchdowns in a game the Vols led 35-10 at halftime. Tennessee finished with 495 yards and plenty of momentum, which they carried into a 45-5 record over the next four seasons.

8. 2001: #4 Tennessee 34 #2 Florida 32 (7.32 yards per play)

Still the greatest play-for-play football game I’ve ever seen the Vols involved in, Travis Stephens was a hero and Bobby Graham his sidekick on offense. Tennessee beat what might’ve been Steve Spurrier’s most talented Florida team by gaining 410 yards on just 56 plays; Florida gained 407 but had 20 more snaps, with a number of long drives deep into the Gainesville night. There were a total of three punts in this game. Stephens’ 226 yards came on just 19 carries, an obscene 11.9 per touch. With everything on the line, the Vols won a truly amazing football game.

7. 1996: #9 Tennessee 48 #11 Northwestern 28 (Citrus Bowl) (7.37 yards per play)

What many assumed to be Peyton Manning’s last game, before he announced his return for one more year. Peyton was 27-of-39 for 408 yards, still one of just eight 400+ yard performances in school history and at the time the most yards a Vol QB had ever thrown for in victory.

6. 1995: #6 Tennessee 41 #12 Alabama 14 (7.4 yards per play)

Tennessee’s last win over Alabama was in 1985. Enter Manning, who went 20-of-29 for 301 yards, including a touchdown to Joey Kent on play number one. Jay Graham added 114 on the ground, and this team gave us one of the greatest days to be a Tennessee Vol. As we know, streaks like this one don’t often bust easily. But on this night in Birmingham, it came apart at the seams on the first play and unraveled for hours to come. Still my favorite Tennessee memory outside of anything from 1998.

5. 1989: #8 Tennessee 31 #10 Arkansas 27 (Cotton Bowl) (7.7 yards per play)

In his freshman finale, Chuck Webb ran for a cool 250 yards against the Razorbacks, three years before they’d enter the SEC. The champs of the old SWC couldn’t keep up with the champs of the SEC, as Tennessee finished off an 11-1 campaign that ushered the program into the Decade of Dominance.

4. 2022: #11 Tennessee 38 #20 Florida 33 (8.23 yards per play)

One truth you’ll find about most of these games: they include a few snaps at the end where we’re not necessarily working the same game plan. Tennessee had 576 yards on 70 plays last week, but there has been some conversation on the play-calling after the Vols recovered Florida’s first onside kick. Leading 38-27 with four minutes to play, the Vols benefitted from a substitution penalty for 1st-and-5 at the Florida 46. From there, the next five snaps were runs for a total of 11 yards, followed by Hendon Hooker’s fourth down completion short of the sticks to Princeton Fant for another yard. That means Tennessee’s last six offensive plays of the day gained just two yards per play. Before that drive, the Vols had 564 yards on 64 snaps, 8.8 yards per play. That number would’ve ranked #2 on this Top 10, but again, most of these games feature kneel downs, clock management, etc.

Don’t lose the forest for the trees: Tennessee’s offensive performance against the Gators was an all-timer in just about any way you consider it. The Vols never punted. Hendon Hooker, in yards per attempt, had his second-best day as a Vol against Power Five competition, giving Tennessee 12.5 yards every time let one go. And I thought his diversity among targets was impressive without Cedric Tillman: five catches each for Bru McCoy, Jalin Hyatt, and Princeton Fant; three for Ramel Keyton and Jabari Small. That’s really good for a team playing without its number one receiver in a system that really doesn’t throw to tight ends and running backs much.

All told, Saturday was a Top 5 offensive performance at UT in the last 30+ years against a good team on a per play basis. Here are the three that were better:

3. 1997: #10 Tennessee 38 #13 Georgia 13 (8.26 yards per play)

Peyton Manning, meet Jamal Lewis. In the true freshman tailback’s first start, he ran for 232 yards on 22 carries, 10.5 per. Peyton Manning went 31-of-40 for 343 yards and four touchdowns. Speaking of target diversity: 11 different players caught a pass from Manning, with what I’m sure was an annoyingly similar stat line from Marcus Nash (6 for 59), Peerless Price (5 for 57), and Jermaine Copeland (also 5 for 57). This offense was simply unfair.

2. 2006: #23 Tennessee 35 #9 California 18 (8.43 yards per play)

Hello, David Cutcliffe. In the “would’ve been more but we changed the game plan” department, remember the Vols were up 35-0 on Montario Hardesty’s one-play drive of 43 yards…with 8:20 to play in the third quarter. Erik Ainge took a seat for Jonathan Crompton after that one. I’ve got Tennessee’s backups getting 88 yards in 24 plays in the final 1.5 quarters. That means Tennessee’s starters got 426 yards on 37 snaps! That’s 11.5 yards per play. Tennessee’s first three drives of the third quarter: 2 plays 80 yards, 3 plays 72 yards, 1 play 43 yards. Is that good?

1. 2021: Tennessee 45 #18 Kentucky 42 (9.81 yards per play)

Hello, Josh Heupel. In a game that still featured three kneel downs, the Vols got 461 yards in 47 snaps. Tennessee’s drives in this one:

• 1 play 75 yards TD
• 3 plays 75 yards TD
• 4 plays 39 yards fumble
• 3 plays -9 yards punt
• 7 plays 52 yards TD
• 4 plays 35 yards FG
• 3 plays 49 yards TD
• 6 plays 32 yards fumble
• 3 plays 47 yards TD
• 12 plays 57 yards missed FG
• 3 plays -8 yards kneel downs

Take away the kneel downs, and the Vols averaged 10.66 yards per play. Oddly enough, Tennessee’s last five snaps went backwards: the Vols had 2nd-and-Goal at the 5 on the previous drive to put Kentucky away, but Hendon Hooker was sacked twice for -8. So before those last five plays, the Vols averaged 11.35 yards per play. Ridiculous. How much of this game will be a blueprint, or at least a point of reference, for teams looking to beat Tennessee in the future? Control the ball and score as many points as you can, blitz the quarterback and either get a sack or give up a touchdown?

We shall see. But as a direct comparison, Tennessee’s defense was actually better against Florida than they were against Kentucky last season. The Vols led the Gators by 17 midway through the fourth quarter, and it was only truly close via onside kick. This Kentucky game was much more tight the entire ride. Hopefully, what we’re seeing in 2022 is more of an indicator of what’s to come…which is high praise, considering what we saw on this day in 2021 is, per play, the best it’s ever been done against a ranked foe at Tennessee.

Okay, so I’m fairly confident we’re going to come out pretty close to nine wins this week, making that the baseline expectation going forward. That means we expect this to be our best season in at least 15 years; the Top 10 ranking follows suit.

The real fun this week – the kind of fun you can have in the bye week – is this question:

Which is more likely: 8-4 or 10-2?

Find out here: