Expected Win Total Machine – My Clothes Smell Like Cigars Edition

Okay.

Tennessee’s path to Atlanta goes straight through Athens. While our schedule should lighten in the final three weeks, Georgia’s does get a little slippery. The Dawgs are off this week, then the Cocktail Party, then us. Should the Vols falter between the hedges, Georgia will still have a trip to Starkville and Lexington remaining. If both UT and UGA get to November 5 undefeated, we would need Georgia to lose both those road games to get back to Atlanta. Seems unlikely; we should just beat them, right?

So in the win total machine, we’re always looking at the overall picture, which this week should project 11-1 as Tennessee’s most likely outcome. But after beating Alabama (where fans gave us a 38.3% chance going in), how will our view of Georgia change? Last week, fans gave Tennessee a 29% chance of victory in Athens. I predict that number is going up.

Before then, the Vols will have to deal with Kentucky in Knoxville, another ranked vs ranked game with the Cats off this week. There will be plenty of time to speak of this next week…but consider the distance between the last time we played these guys in Neyland and right now.

The Vols, of course, could have other paths to the playoffs. A narrow loss at Georgia and an 11-1 finish would give the Vols a tough-to-beat resume among one-loss teams. And if Tennessee arrives in Atlanta undefeated, you’d need something really strange to keep the Vols out of the playoffs from that point.

The most dangerous of the really stranges: multiple undefeated teams from conferences outside the Big Ten. Right now, your top four will become a top two once the dust clears between the Vols and Dawgs, and Ohio State and Michigan. Alabama controls its own destiny to face the East winner.

Here’s the most complicated scenario: Georgia beats the Vols, then loses to Alabama in Atlanta. In our non-division future, that’s essentially a three-way tie. So what happens on Selection Sunday if you’ve got 12-1 Alabama, 12-1 Georgia, and 11-1 Tennessee? The winner of Ohio State and Michigan would certainly get in, and I think that would make a tidy field of four. But things would get murky in a hurry if you also had an undefeated Clemson, or TCU, or UCLA.

As long as Tennessee is undefeated, we don’t have to worry about any of that. We’re pretty safe along those lines this week. But along the way, if those other undefeated teams were to falter? That helps us. So too do things like Kentucky beating Mississippi State last week, and South Carolina continuing to win. All that continues to help our own resume should we need it as a fall back.

May I present to you:

Playoff Games of Interest This Week

• #14 Syracuse at #5 Clemson – 12:00 PM – ABC
• #7 Ole Miss at LSU – 3:30 PM – CBS
• #9 UCLA at #10 Oregon – 3:30 PM – FOX/FS1
• #17 Kansas State at #8 TCU – 8:00 PM – FOX/FS1

One undefeated will fall in Death Valley; Clemson would be the preference, right? In Baton Rouge, LSU can continue to bolster Tennessee’s resume…unless you want the version of events where we get Kiffin and Ole Miss in Atlanta. Oregon over UCLA and Kansas State over TCU are clear-cut outcomes that would benefit Tennessee.

When you think you can win every game, all of this is secondary. But especially in a week of welcoming our FCS friends, if you want some good insurance? Those would be good outcomes.

Enjoy your week.