Truly, truly a privilege to write about this game.
The Vols are good, playing at such a high level right now I find a new stat every week that makes me laugh. This week: Tennessee is only 81st nationally in 10+ yard plays from scrimmage, with 79 in five games. But the Vols are first in the nation with 14 plays of 40+ yards. It’s like we don’t have time for your pitiful 10-yard gains, we’re just erasing the whole field at once.
Last year the Vols finished with 23 40+ yard plays, seventh nationally. That’s 1.8 of these huge plays per game in 2021, 2.8 per game so far this year. And again: we’ve played three ranked teams.
I’m sure you would not be surprised that 23 40+ yard plays last season was UT’s highest total in at least the last 12 years. You may have forgotten or moved on enough to not know that this season’s 14 40+ yard plays are already more than the Vols had in all of 2011, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2017, 2019, and 2020. In that last one, the season before Josh Heupel took over, the Vols had three 40+ yard plays in ten games.
And three is the same number of 40+ yard plays Alabama’s defense has given up this season.
It’s not a guarantee of success: Iowa leads the nation in that department, yet to surrender a single 40+ yard play. But the Hawkeyes are 3-3. Georgia Tech and Temple have only given up one.
I think it’s more a question of game plan and game management: do you take a ton of shots against this defense? It worked for three quarters last year, when the Vols hit touchdowns of 57 and 70 yards, and had a 39-yard completion to set up a score on the opening drive. Is there any such thing as too aggressive for Tennessee?
One thing worth watching early in this game: last year Vol running backs combined for only 38 yards on 14 carries. We couldn’t run on them – not the first time we’ve seen that problem against Bama or Georgia – and we saw a bit of this earlier in the year at Pittsburgh. Ten of the Vols’ first dozen play calls in that one were pass plays, and UT ended that overtime affair with just 19 carries and 64 yards for running backs. There was an admission that running into the teeth of that defensive front just wasn’t going to be fruitful, and UT didn’t spend much time banging its head against that particular wall.
Flash forward to LSU, and six of Tennessee’s first eight play calls were runs. Tennessee’s backs had 36 carries for exactly 200 yards. All of that to say this: Tennessee’s offense is flexible. The Vols don’t have to hit home runs to beat you, especially when the defense is playing well.
Do the Vols have to hit home runs to beat Alabama? And if so, how many?
There’s that question. There’s the question of how many times Tennessee’s defense can get off the field.
But I’m a big believer in dancing with the one who brung you. And over two seasons now, no stat tells that story better than what Hendon Hooker does with his legs, and how often he’s brought down behind the line.
Last year, the thing Tennessee was absolutely worst at was pass protection: Vol QBs were sacked on 10.94% of their passing attempts vs FBS foes, 123rd in the nation. That was the highest percentage of sacks allowed in the post-Fulmer era, and I’m sure that number goes back farther than that.
This year, Tennessee has so far trimmed that number to 4.82%, 48th nationally. If it held there the entire season, it would be the best job UT’s pass protection did since the 2011-2013 group sent Ja’Wuan James, Zach Fulton, and Dallas Thomas to the NFL Draft. That number, of course, is also getting ready to face Will Anderson and friends.
Here’s the best way to explain it: since Hendon Hooker became the starting quarterback, the Vols are 9-1 when he averages 3+ yards per carry, 2-4 when he doesn’t.
- In 11 wins: 118 carries for 578 yards (4.9 per carry), 24 sacks
- In 5 losses: 85 carries for 217 yards (2.6 per carry), 20 sacks
Like anything else, it’s not a perfect number: Hooker was really good on the ground against Ole Miss last year (23 carries for 108 yards) in Tennessee’s narrow loss. But as you can see, that performance accounts for right at half of his rushing yards in the Vols’ five losses he started.
The Vols are good. Are they good enough to beat Alabama with or without Bryce Young, and without any weirdness? Can Tennessee continue to focus on themselves, play their game, and have it be good enough against the very best?
If so, I think these are the questions:
- Can Hendon Hooker find success with his legs?
- Can the Vols protect him as a passer?
- How many times can Tennessee’s defense get off the field without giving up a touchdown?
- How many home runs did the Vols hit?
In our expected win total machine this week, fans are giving Tennessee a 38.3% chance of victory. We can talk about the past here, the number of times that number has been in the single digits. And we can talk about the future, where fans are now projecting a tantalizing 9.98 regular season wins for this team:
But I still like the present tense. It’s the biggest game for the Vols in at least 15 years and maybe 20+. There will be playoff talk no matter the outcome. But it still comes down to the sentence that has meant more than any other to Volunteers through all the years: can Tennessee beat Alabama?
Do that, and anything is possible.
Go Vols.
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