The Vols are 5-0, and we will in all likelihood see their expected win total rise to 10-2 becoming the most likely outcome. Last week our community put that number at 9.26 expected regular season wins, and that was before the 40-13 beat down in Baton Rouge.
We’ve been running the win total machine since 2017, so we don’t have the apples to apples comparison available with 2016, the last time UT started 5-0. The Vols were #9 headed to Texas A&M that season, and stayed there to face Alabama the following week. This obviously turned out to be an incorrect assumption, but there was a belief at the time that UT’s schedule would become much, much easier after the Aggies and Tide.
All that to say: would our expected win total for the 2016 Vols going into Texas A&M have been higher than what it will be right now? There is, of course, no way to know for sure. Those Vols beat unranked (but later ranked) Virginia Tech on a neutral field, #19 Florida, and #25 Texas A&M Georgia (duh). These Vols won at #17 Pittsburgh, beat #20 Florida, and blew out #25 LSU on the road. These Vols also have defending national champion Kirby Smart instead of year one Kirby Smart on the schedule.
Anyway, I do think that 2016 group would’ve found themselves in the 10-win projection neighborhood going to A&M. And I think we’re going to find the same here.
We’ve also had so many years of doing this where we asked ourselves, “Is 5% too high for Alabama?” After being +13 against Bama in 2016, the last few years Tennessee has faced lines of +36, +29, +34, +21, and +25. Right now, it’s at +7.5.
Fun week ahead. Enjoy it.
Your expected win total is 9.9.Your details: vs Ball State: 100% at Pittsburgh: 100% vs Akron: 100% vs Florida: 100% at LSU: 100% vs Alabama: 40% vs UT-Martin: 99% vs Kentucky: 75% at Georgia: 25% vs Missouri: 85% at South Carolina: 75% at Vanderbilt: 90% Screw it.. Let’s go! Positive Moves: Bama to 40% up 20% I knew it wasn’t Young playing, but Bama should not have had that much trouble with A&M. Lackluster performances against Texas, Arkansas, and now A&M drives me to give in and feel like we have a realistic shot at knocking off the tide. UK to… Read more »
Your expected win total is 10.2.
Your details:
vs Ball State: 100%
at Pittsburgh: 100%
vs Akron: 100%
vs Florida: 100%
at LSU: 100%
vs Alabama: 45%
vs UT-Martin: 100%
vs Kentucky: 84%
at Georgia: 37%
vs Missouri: 84%
at South Carolina: 82%
at Vanderbilt: 87%
I’m at 9.89 wins this week
What was the ceiling now becomes the floor. Great win on Saturday, and even if Bryce Young is back I think we have a realistic shot at Alabama. Of course, that outlook could change if any more starters are arrested. . . . (sigh).
Your expected win total is 10.1.Your details:
vs Ball State: 100%
at Pittsburgh: 100%
vs Akron: 100%
vs Florida: 100%
at LSU: 100%
vs Alabama: 45%
vs UT-Martin: 99%
vs Kentucky: 75%
at Georgia: 40%
vs Missouri: 85%
at South Carolina: 80%
at Vanderbilt: 90%
Who got arrested?
Jaylen McCollough, starting safety. https://gamedayonrockytop.com/tennessee-volunteers-football/expected-win-total-machine-third-saturday-in-october/#comment-6918
Sorry, That was obviously the wrong link. Here’s the one I meant. https://www.rockytoptalk.com/2022/10/11/23398373/josh-heupel-comments-jaylen-mccollough-arrest-tennessee-vols-football
It is so fun to see this keep creeping up. And I am feeling better about Bama and Georgia than I have at any point this season. I always through we had a puncher’s chance because of our offense. But now I think we have actual chances because of flaws each team has. Georgia’s offense is not great, and if Bama is without Young, my percent goes even higher. I still worry about them having bigger and faster players at multiple positions, and that will wear us down by the end. Put another way, if you told me right now… Read more »
Uncharted territory for me here!Your expected win total is 10.2. Your details: vs Ball State: 100% at Pittsburgh: 100% vs Akron: 100% vs Florida: 100% at LSU: 100% vs Alabama: 40% vs UT-Martin: 100% vs Kentucky: 80% at Georgia: 20% vs Missouri: 90% at South Carolina: 92% at Vanderbilt: 99% Also, re: “The Vols were #9 headed to Texas A&M that season, and stayed there to face Alabama the following week. This obviously turned out to be an incorrect assumption, but there was a belief at the time that UT’s schedule would become much, much easier after the Aggies and Tide.”… Read more »
Optimism reigns supreme… Go Vols!
Your expected win total is 10.1.
Your details:
vs Ball State: 100%
at Pittsburgh: 100%
vs Akron: 100%
vs Florida: 100%
at LSU: 100%
vs Alabama: 40%
vs UT-Martin: 100%
vs Kentucky: 70%
at Georgia: 40%
vs Missouri: 80%
at South Carolina: 80%
at Vanderbilt: 95%
Your expected win total is 10.4.
Your details:
vs Alabama: 40%
vs UT-Martin: 99%
vs Kentucky: 68%
at Georgia: 33%
vs Missouri: 99%
at South Carolina: 99%
at Vanderbilt: 99%
Your expected win total is 9.6.
Your details:
vs Ball State: 100%
at Pittsburgh: 100%
vs Akron: 100%
vs Florida: 100%
at LSU: 100%
vs Alabama: 30%
vs UT-Martin: 98%
vs Kentucky: 70%
at Georgia: 20%
vs Missouri: 75%
at South Carolina: 75%
at Vanderbilt: 95%
Your expected win total is 10.2.Your details:
vs Ball State: 100%
at Pittsburgh: 100%
vs Akron: 100%
vs Florida: 100%
at LSU: 100%
vs Alabama: 30%
vs UT-Martin: 99%
vs Kentucky: 80%
at Georgia: 25%
vs Missouri: 95%
at South Carolina: 95%
at Vanderbilt: 99%
Let’s get (fulmerized) crazy!!!!I’m feeling like Bama is a tossup game. What world is this?!
Your expected win total is 10.0.Your details:
vs Ball State: 100%
at Pittsburgh: 100%
vs Akron: 100%
vs Florida: 100%
at LSU: 100%
vs Alabama: 50%
vs UT-Martin: 99%
vs Kentucky: 70%
at Georgia: 40%
vs Missouri: 80%
at South Carolina: 75%
at Vanderbilt: 85%
big jump this week