Author Archives: Will Shelton

Of all the benchmarks we can use for this turnaround, the happiest one is Missouri.

On October 2, 2021, the Vols went to Columbia at 2-2. Vanquished at Florida the week before in a second half that got out of hand, 38-14. An announced attendance of 82,203 to watch them fight but fall to Pittsburgh two weeks before that. The surest thing was status quo, and Missouri was a 2.5-point favorite.

And then somewhere in here, something started:

Lots of things have started here over the last 15 years, and some of them even took those next few steps. But they all ultimately faltered, making those first steps more easily forgotten, and harder to appreciate the next time.

These Vols have more than followed through on theirs, climbing so high it’s hard to even connect all the dots on the fly. But that first one – just 13 months ago, the first fruits of labors begun just 22 months ago – it’s hard to miss. Tennessee outperformed the spread by 40.5 points, the program’s best mark since 1994. They did it effortlessly.

And in these next three weeks, making it look that easy would go a long way again.

Fans think the Vols will get to that 11-1 finish. But it’s not as clear-cut as it might seem on the surface. Maybe it’s the ghosts of 2016, maybe it’s trying to find our footing after the Georgia loss. But in this week’s expected win total machine, fans give the Vols an 82.7% chance of victory against Missouri, 80.5% at South Carolina, and 93.8% at Vanderbilt. Add all that up, and you get an expectation of 11 wins…barely.

We’ve come a long way not just since Missouri last year, but since week two this year, when fans believed 7-5 was a hair more likely than 9-3. And now, we’ve been feeling 11-1 since beating Bama…it’s just a matter of hanging on to it.

And for Tennessee to get where they want to go in the College Football Playoff poll, they may need to do more than hang on.

The good news: Josh Heupel and this team tend not to discriminate. Tennessee stays on the accelerator against all comers, as both Missouri and South Carolina can attest to from last year. The Tigers never stopped Tennessee on that glorious afternoon. The following week, South Carolina found a brief respite in the third quarter by doing the one thing you have to try to do against this offense: make it go backward.

Hooker was sacked on three consecutive drives, allowing South Carolina to turn a 38-7 game into a 38-20 game, plus get the ball back one more time. The defense held, and the Vols punched it in a final time for the final margin. But putting the Vols in negative situations remains the best and perhaps only way to get past this offense.

Here’s an updated version of our question from the Georgia preview last week:

What Made Tennessee Punt?

• Florida: never punted
• LSU: 2Q Leading 20-0, three straight incompletions from the LSU 38
• LSU: 3Q Leading 30-7, offensive pass interference created 1st-and-19, punted on 4th-and-6
• Alabama: 2Q Leading 21-10: no gain, incomplete, complete to Fant for 7, punted on 4th-and-3 (muffed)
• Kentucky: 1Q Leading 7-0, offensive pass interference created 1st-and-25, punted on 4th-and-27 after holding penalty
• Kentucky: 2Q Leading 20-6, sack on first down created 2nd-and-18, punted on 4th-and-8
• Kentucky: 3Q Leading 37-6, false start on first down created 1st-and-15, sack on third down created 4th-and-20
• Georgia: 1Q Trailing 7-3, false start on first down, punted on 4th-and-6
• Georgia: 1Q Trailing 7-3, 75-yard punt leads to sack on 3rd-and-6, punted from the end zone
• Georgia: 1Q Trailing 14-3: run for 2, run for 3, incomplete, punted on 4th-and-5 at the UT 41
• Georgia: 3Q Trailing 24-6: sacked on first down at the UGA 41, sacked again on 3rd down

In Tennessee’s 10 punts in five SEC contests, seven have come because of a sack or a penalty. No teams have had consistent success stopping this offense from going forward. But if you can make it go backward – or if the Vols do that to themselves via penalties – you can get it off the field.

Is this Missouri defense good enough to make the Vols go backward? Will we see them sell out to try, especially after last week? It’s a good test right away to see how the Vol offense will continue to adapt and go forward; they’ll get another chance next week to face a hostile environment and put those skills to the test on the road as well.

We’ve come a very long way, those first steps taken, over and over again, at Missouri and vs South Carolina last fall. Can the Vols take them again in these last few weeks? Can Tennessee learn and grow from Athens, and extend itself against these two defenses once more?

Do that, and the biggest goals – the ones we still dreamed of somewhere deep in our hearts and our memories all those months ago, even after all those years – will still be right in front of this team.

Go Vols.

Here’s the question now: how confident are you the Vols will go 3-0 the next three weeks?

That starts this week with Mizzou, who was blown out 40-12 at Kansas State in week two. The Wildcats are #23 in the land this week, so we probably weren’t giving them enough credit back then. Since then, Missouri has four one-possession losses to Auburn, Georgia, Florida, and Kentucky. The Tigers also beat Vanderbilt 17-14, and won at South Carolina in their best performance, 23-10. In each of those six SEC games, the Tigers scored between 17-23 points, and gave up between 10-26 points.

Much of the conversation about Tennessee will come into picture once we see the playoff poll tomorrow night. There are no opportunities left for quality wins on Tennessee’s regular season schedule (unless South Carolina beats Florida and Clemson on the way in, but that might get in the way of Florida becoming a quality win if they win out). But if Tennessee’s resume was good enough for #1 last week, one would assume it’s not going to fall so far to remove the Vols from the conversation this week.

Just keep winning.

I’ve been down with the flu for the past few days, and I feel like this game fit that mood perfectly: stuffy, sleepy, body aches, all that. Credit the defending champs for playing like it: Georgia’s defense may or may not have the first round picks of the 2021 squad, but they were a force today. Where Alabama largely tried to create pressure from its front and failed, Georgia got Tennessee out of rhythm – and the Vols did that to themselves plenty too – then blitzed repeatedly. It worked: Hooker was sacked seven times, and finished with 17 yards rushing on 18 attempts. In last year’s matchup: six sacks, 17 carries for 7 yards.

No disrespect to the 12:00 PM Baton Rouge crowd, but this was the first championship-level test for this group of players on the road, and like many things, we’re not great at it on the first try. The Vols did do some good things, especially defensively. I’m not sure how we properly rate the second half, or how much Georgia wanted to push the issue in the rain, wary of what Tennessee’s own offense had done coming in. But though the Vol offense struggled on this day, the defense held the Dawgs to 3.5 yards per carry, their lowest total in two years. Georgia, again, made several big third down conversions early, finishing 7-of-12. And they hit the big plays the Vols were never able to find.

#Vols coach Josh Heupel: We just weren't good enough today. We didn't make critical plays in critical spots.

— Wes Rucker (@wesrucker247) November 5, 2022

So, a tip of the cap to the champs for a well-deserved win. The Vols will be big favorites over Missouri, South Carolina, and Vanderbilt; win those, and the New Year’s Six is the worst thing that’s going to happen to you. The program goal is getting ready to be, “Can you make a 12-team playoff?” These Vols would be on their way.

Can this team make a four-team playoff? Sure. Here’s what we need now:

• Losses from Clemson and TCU. The Tigers are at Notre Dame tonight, then finish by hosting Louisville, Miami, and South Carolina. TCU is at Texas, at Baylor, then hosts Iowa State, plus a potential Big 12 Championship Game. Keep an eye on the playoff poll on Tuesday; the Vols starting at #1 is an obvious advantage, let’s see where UT lands in proximity to these other teams. (Notre Dame blocked punt right on cue let’s gooooooooooooooooo)
• Does Alabama really matter now? If the Tide win out, they’re in. If they lose anywhere along the way, that’s two losses. So I’m not sure how concerned we should be with Alabama’s placement as it relates to Tennessee (though sure, it would be crazy to have the Vols behind them, even if Bama blows LSU out…which we’ve already done).
• Is 11-1 Tennessee more attractive than the loser of Ohio State/Michigan? This part may not matter by Thanksgiving Weekend anyway, but if the field is still crowded, you’d like a blowout in that game if both teams arrive undefeated.

If you pencil in Georgia and the OSU/Michigan winner, two spots are left. An 11-1 Tennessee wouldn’t get in over an undefeated Clemson or TCU. But they’ll have a good case otherwise.

Lots of story left to be written here, and a good ending is still out there.

In a four-team playoff, there may still be opportunity for the loser on Saturday. Because of that, it’s hard to quantify exactly where this game falls on the list of, you know, “biggest ever.”

But I do know this: if Clemson, TCU, and the Ohio State/Michigan winner remain undefeated, it’s very unlikely the loser is getting in. You give up control of your own destiny. So I don’t know if this will end up being remembered as the biggest game since xyz…but it very well might be. Might as well win it.

The calendar is always such a factor, and the truth is, we never really know. Other than the BCS Championship Game, we didn’t really know our favorite memories from 1998 could become some of our favorite memories ever at kickoff. This is how 2001 Florida, the only non-98 comparison to what we’ve seen this year, gets so high up the list: you knew all the stakes, the rewards and the consequences.

We don’t know all the consequences here. But we absolutely know the rewards. So how can the Vols get them?

Tennessee may be evolving beyond its most reliable predictor of success: Hendon Hooker’s rushing/sacks allowed. The Vols remain 11-1 when Hooker averages 3+ yards per carry as a starter, with the lone loss coming against Ole Miss last year. He averaged 8.6 per carry against Florida, 5.6 at LSU, and 4.0 against Alabama.

But the Vols are now 3-4 when he doesn’t. One of those wins is the Pitt game, which turned ugly early and stayed that way for much of the day, an overtime affair the Vols won. But against Kentucky, Hooker ran just 10 times for 23 yards…and Tennessee rolled.

Clearly, the Vol offense can get it going even without Hooker’s legs. But I do still think pass protection is a huge piece of the equation.

Here’s a fun game I like to call:

What made Tennessee punt?

• Florida: never punted
• LSU: 2Q Leading 20-0, three straight incompletions from the LSU 38
• LSU: 3Q Leading 30-7, offensive pass interference created 1st-and-19, punted on 4th-and-6
• Alabama: 2Q Leading 21-10: no gain, incomplete, complete to Fant for 7, punted on 4th-and-3 (muffed)
• Kentucky: 1Q Leading 7-0, offensive pass interference created 1st-and-25, punted on 4th-and-27 after holding penalty
• Kentucky: 2Q Leading 20-6, sack on first down created 2nd-and-18, punted on 4th-and-8
• Kentucky: 3Q Leading 37-6, false start on first down created 1st-and-15, sack on third down created 4th-and-20

Of those seven punts in Tennessee’s four SEC wins, six came with the Vols already in front by at least two possessions. The other, of course, is the 4th-and-27 punt from last week. But you can sense a pattern: two drives stopped by OPIs, two others by sacks.

Again, not rocket science: the best way to slow down this offense is to put them in negative yardage, or hope the officials agree with your interpretation. Tennessee does remain one of the most penalized teams in the nation (122nd in penalties per game, 124th in penalty yards per game). The defending champs are fifth in flags per game and 15th in penalty yards per game. Something to keep an eye on, especially on the road.

One big question this week is impossible to answer until gametime: how much better was last year’s historic Georgia defense compared to this one? If you’re looking for Hooker’s worst performance as a runner, it’s easily that game last season: 17 carries for seven yards, sacked six times.

And yet, the Vols scored 17 points and had their chances for more:

• 1Q 7-7: 3rd-and-1 at the UT 34, Hooker run for no gain, punt
• 3Q 24-10 UGA: 4th-and-4 at the UGA 17, incomplete
• 3Q 27-10 UGA: 4th-and-13 at the UGA 39 (after sacked on 2nd-and-6), incomplete
• 4Q 34-10 UGA: 3rd-and-6 at the UGA 7, Hooker sacked and fumbled

Where’s the line between the improvement of Tennessee’s offense and the rebuild/reload of Georgia’s defense?

Perhaps more important to victory on Saturday: how often can Tennessee’s own defense get off the field?

Here’s how the Vols let Georgia off the hook last year:

• 1Q 7-0 UT: 3rd-and-7 at the UGA 44, Stetson Bennett run for 13 yards
• 2Q 10-7 UT: 3rd-and-8 at the UT 38, Bennett to McConkey for 14 yards
• 2Q 17-10 UGA: 3rd-and-7 at the UGA 30, Bennett to Mitchell for 11 yards
• 2Q 17-10 UGA: 3rd-and-5 at the UT 32, Bennett to Mitchell for 9 yards
• 3Q 24-10 UGA: 3rd-and-10 at the UT 40, Bennett to Bowers for 14 yards

The Dawgs ended the day just 5-of-12 on third down, but each of their five conversions was at 5+ yards to go. When you get the chance to get off the field against this bunch, you have to take it.

Georgia also gashed the Vols in the red zone last year, with no real down-and-distance opportunities for the Vols to stop them. I’ll be curious to see if Tennessee’s much-improved red zone defense can make that part a factor in this year’s game.

In our expected win total machine, fans are giving the Vols a 46.1% chance of victory. On the road, that feels like a toss-up number, which says a lot about how far we’ve come. Can the Vols protect Hooker and avoid going backwards on offense? And can the defense get off the field on third-and-medium?

Do that, and we’ll be projecting 12 regular season wins come Monday.

Go Vols.

For a while this season, I found myself waiting for enough distance to be sure we were out of the wilderness. Some of this is the ghosts of 2016, for sure. But coming in, that was a good goal for the 2022 season: put together the best year in 15 years, win 9 or 10 games, compete. Make progress. Have a season where, when it ended, we could all look back at it and say, “Yep, good job.”

And now, in part I find myself reminded of the Israelites: fresh out of Egypt, but because that was all they knew for so long, they still find themselves looking back. Meanwhile, the miraculous is happening all around them. And you don’t want to miss a single step of it.

That’s still the problem, in part: we believed there were steps to this, and maybe these Vols could take one or two this year. There are certainly supposed to be steps between 7-6 and 8-0. None of us ever dreamed it could happen so fast.

In fact, that’s one of my favorite things about blogging: there are more easily accessible ways to go back and see what you thought two years ago, or fifteen years ago, or whatever. And to do so is often humbling.

After a series of low points – Kiffin leaving, Kentucky in 2011, the back half of 2016, the vulnerability of Schiano Sunday – the Vols hit the last of these places in 2020. From halftime of the Georgia game, it was a steep fall to Kentucky, still the worst loss in terms of underperforming the spread in 40 years.

But after that, two trips to Arkansas and Auburn in November 2020 really put things in perspective. Against a Razorback team that went 2-10 in consecutive years in 2018 and 2019, Sam Pittman’s year one squad turned a 13-0 halftime deficit into a 24-13 Arkansas win. In that second half, Tennessee went three-and-out three times, then four-and-out, then three-and-out, then two interceptions. (Pittman’s Arkansas teams are a good example of the kind of step-based success that would’ve been welcomed here!)

At Auburn two weeks later (the covid year had all these bye weeks that made everything, you know, longer) the Vols again jumped to a two-possession lead, watched Auburn go back in front 13-10, then fired a 100-yard pick six late in the third quarter.

Around this time, we started writing about things in terms of exile, and not just wilderness. How a stiff neck won’t get you out any faster. And not to believe the prophets who tell you this can all be over soon.

And that, of course, is the thing.

Not only are the Vols clearly out of the wilderness, two years later.

Tennessee is the number one team in the country.

The miraculous is happening all around us.

It’s in my nature to be supportive, to rally around current coaches, all that. And I come up short on that plenty still.

And sometimes we just get it wrong. I was wrong about the amount of time it would take Tennessee to move forward from two years ago.

But I’m not sure I should have been.

We fans all want the sure thing, which never really exists. No one believed Josh Heupel was it two Januarys ago. And the longer you’ve been away, the more your stomach growls.

You don’t get out of the wilderness with a stiff neck. I think it’s more about simple obedience. Which, in this case, was the very non-rocket science answer of:

• Hire an athletic director who is really good at their job
• Let them hire a football coach who is also really good at his job

For all the ups and downs of a season that, if Tennessee makes it to the national championship game, is still only 53% over? My most emotional moment remains the morning of the Alabama game, watching the opening of College Gameday. Watching a song I’ve poked fun at more often than not. A song Tennessee used to be in, and then they took us out.

Even if Tennessee wins it all this year and Heupel stays forever, we won’t always be ranked number one. You can also miss the miracle of the moment by looking too far ahead. But right now, Tennessee is in the national championship conversation. One that’s getting ready to expand to 12 teams.

That’s the goal. Be there. And right now, the Vols certainly are.

And then when you make it all the way to the top? Man, be grateful.

I have no idea what’s left in these last 5-7 games. But we’re way past belief now, and into expectation. It’s Heupel’s own line about not putting a timetable on ourselves, just being as good as we can as fast as we can.

And this team is much better, much faster than it had any right to be.

There will be more time in the off-season to dive into all that. I simply use it today as a way of helping us not miss the miraculous.

Because it is happening all around us.

Go Vols.

Now two-thirds of the way home, we know a few things. The community will project the Vols to win 11 regular season games this week through some degree of rounding; we’re all mostly curious to see the Georgia number. During Alabama week, fans gave the Vols a 38.3% chance of victory in Knoxville. But once we got that victory, the Georgia numbers have consistently been higher than that. How high are we going this week? How many of us are going 51% or better?

Missouri’s win at South Carolina makes it easier to see that last stretch as a whole. The Tigers are now 4-4 with New Mexico State left on the schedule, so they need one for bowl eligibility. The Gamecocks are 5-3 and can get there via Vanderbilt this week, before closing with the Gators, Vols, and Tigers. We predict those expected win percentages will be high.

All the advanced math conversation will really be about the College Football Playoff poll, released tomorrow night at 7:00 PM ET. But even playing Georgia at any version of #1 through #3, we won’t really be able to learn a whole lot of relevant information about how the committee sees the Vols until next week. If Tennessee loses, where the Vols land in comparison to Clemson and TCU would be of particular importance, though they’ll both be tested on Saturday. The Horned Frogs host Texas Tech at noon; Clemson is at Notre Dame at 7:30.

And of course, if Tennessee beats Georgia, projections will be irrelevant.

Enjoy the week!

Early in the fourth quarter, a middle-aged thought occurred to me: we could leave. Tennessee was safely ahead 37-6, Kentucky showed no signs of aggression on offense, this thing was headed towards a certain finish. Fifteen years ago I was in my mid-20s, when you welcome night games. Now there are adult responsibilities to attend to, etc. We could leave.

We did not.

And I really enjoyed having different versions of that conversation at church this morning. There were more opportunities to leave early in those last fifteen years than any of us wanted. Now, every week feels like an opportunity – a gift – just to watch this team, to take it all in.

This week’s edition of that included:

Poor old Paxton Brooks, loneliest guy on the team, just tear-dropping a pair of punts inside the Kentucky three yard line. Just because we don’t do it don’t mean we ain’t good at it! Give him a chance! (…not really, but good to know it’s there when we need it!)

Doneiko Slaughter, who in 2020 started as a true freshman in game one at South Carolina, then fell far down the depth chart. The Vols continue to be thin and banged up in the secondary, here comes Will Levis, Kentucky looking to cut it to 20-13 with less than five minutes to play in the first half:

What a hit leading to the pick by Juwan Mitchell pic.twitter.com/NSSdOksP8w

— Joe Broback (@joebroback) October 30, 2022

This tweet, from the always helpful SportSource Analytics:

The @Vol_Football team is scoring an FBS-best 1.86 points per minute of possession. This is 18% better than any other FBS #CollegeFootball team in 2022. pic.twitter.com/KaPG84HE1R

— SportSource Analytics (@SportSourceA) October 30, 2022

And last, but certainly not least, Tennessee’s basketball team walking over to say hello to the Kentucky fans. Of all the is-this-an-alternate-dimension things we’ve seen in Neyland Stadium this year, this one impressively holds it own. They were greeted with the kind of response you get from a proud fanbase, frustrated and feeling it has few alternatives when you haven’t won enough recently to make a difference against the other team.

A funny moment from the 1st half: Tennessee recognized its men's basketball team. And the Volunteers looked like they were having some fun trash talk with the Kentucky fan section. pic.twitter.com/1cGsCsravn

— Tyler Greever (@Tyler_Greever) October 30, 2022

All of these things happened in game eight of this 2022 football season, just some of just one week’s worth of a season that is increasingly difficult to describe but has never been easier to enjoy.

And next, in game nine, it’s #1 Georgia vs #2 Tennessee.

On paper, we now have our second entry of the season on this list:

Highest Ranked vs Ranked Games since 1968

• 1998: #1 Tennessee vs #2 Florida State (BCS Championship) (W 23-16)
• 2022: #1 Georgia vs #2 Tennessee
• 1997: #2 Nebraska vs #3 Tennessee (Orange Bowl) (L 42-17)
• 1996: #2 Tennessee vs #4 Florida (L 35-29)
• 1997: #2 Florida vs #4 Tennessee (L 33-20)
• 1999: #2 Tennessee at #4 Florida (L 23-21)
• 2001: #2 Florida vs #5 Tennessee (W 34-32)
• 1990: #3 Auburn vs #5 Tennessee (T 26-26)
• 1995: #4 Tennessee vs #4 Ohio State (Citrus Bowl) (W 20-14)
• 1998: #2 Florida at #6 Tennessee (W 20-17 OT)
• 1999: #3 Nebraska vs #6 Tennessee (Fiesta Bowl) (L 31-21)
• 2022: #3 Alabama at #6 Tennessee (W 52-49)

Which, seen through this lens, would make this the biggest regular season game in the history of the program.

But these days are indeed new. All of those other contests took place in the BCS era or before. When Tennessee and Florida met in 1996-99 and in 2001, it felt like all or nothing, even in September. Win, and your dreams were not just available, but attainable. Lose, and the thrust of your entire season became about hoping Florida would lose twice.

Wherever Tennessee appears in Tuesday’s College Football Playoff poll, arguments about Georgia will get resolved four days later. You want to leave the Dawgs at #1 as the undefeated defending champs, fine. You like the Vols at #1 because of the resume, fine. Somebody’s going to win on Saturday.

But for the one who doesn’t, in a playoff world that we’re learning to navigate in real time together? It’s not over. And either us or Georgia wouldn’t need anything as unlikely as two mid-90s Florida losses to still get in.

I still worry about what a 12-team playoff might do to the regular season sometimes; that’s a conversation for a different day. But now, we’ll get to have it from personal experience. What last night’s win and next week’s clash would and wouldn’t mean, who knows.

But I know last night was incredible in ways that aren’t exclusively tied to being 8-0. And I know next week will be incredible in all the ways that are, no matter how many teams are in the playoffs.

Perfection is hard. And when you actually get it, like the Vols did in 1998, it becomes harder to live with anything less.

But introducing a little grace into the story – especially from the viewpoint of 15 years outside the national story – is usually a good idea.

It will not make us want to win any less on Saturday, a historic clash by any definition. But whether the loser gets in or not, I think grace helps put everything in perspective.

We’ve seen a lot in Neyland, and had plenty of notions to leave.

But stay, and you get to see the whole picture, the whole thing in motion. There is so much to take in, even more to enjoy right now. Wherever this story is headed next, the Vols are a gift.

And I cannot wait to see what they do with next week’s opportunity.

Tennessee is living this incredible combination of things that would be considered good in any season, plus x number of years since an entire season was considered good. At some point, the conversation has to include how you can’t include it all. Too much fun since much too long, etc.

Each week, I find myself drawn to some hilarious new representation of the intersection of these two ideas. This time, it’s the fact that the Vols have now overtaken the service academies on the yards per attempt leaderboard:

Passing Yards Per Attempt

1. Tennessee, 11.4, 226 attempts
2. Air Force, 11.0, 60 attempts
3. Army, 10.8, 63 attempts
4. Ohio State, 10.5, 208 attempts

No one else in college football is in double digits.

This is the whole team number, of course, so Joe Milton and others are in there. For individual quarterbacks, Hendon Hooker still leads the country at 10.8 yards per attempt. C.J. Stroud is just behind at 10.6. And tied for third: Will Levis, at 10.0.

The biggest difference between those two quarterbacks continues to be interceptions: five for Levis, just the one for Hooker. But for the entire offense, the Vols are still the much more explosive team.

And not just compared to Kentucky.

30+ Yard Plays

1. Tennessee, 32
2. TCU, 27
3. UCF, 26
4. North Texas, 26 (8 games)
5. Ohio State, 25
6. Alabama, 24 (8 games)

40+ Yard Plays

1. Tennessee, 21
2. North Texas, 17 (8 games)
3. Army & Memphis, 15

The Vols are averaging 4.6 30+ yard plays per game, and 3 40+ yard plays per game. Among power five schools that have played seven games, Ohio State and TCU are next on the 40+ yard play list at two per game.

If those numbers held for the Vols, here’s how they would compare to the national leaders in previous years:

Most 30+ Yard Plays Per Game, 2010-22

Year	Team	30+ Per Game
2022	Tennessee	4.6
2021	Liberty/UTEP	3.3
2020	Arkansas St	4.0
2019	UCF	4.9
2018	Ole Miss	4.3
2017	Oklahoma St	4.4
2016	Western KY	4.4
2015	Baylor	4.5
2014	Marshall	4.1
2013	Baylor	4.3
2012	Baylor	4.4
2011	Houston	4.0
2010	Hawaii	4.0

Most 40+ Yard Plays Per Game, 2010-22

Year	Team	40+ Per Game
2022	Tennessee	3.0
2021	Kent State	2.0
2020	UCF	2.4
2019	Memphis	2.5
2018	Oklahoma	2.4
2017	Oklahoma	2.6
2016	Oklahoma	2.5
2015	Baylor/TTU	2.4
2014	Baylor/ColoSt	2.2
2013	Baylor	2.8
2012	Baylor	2.5
2011	Houston	2.5
2010	San Diego St	2.1

In the last 12 years, no team has finished a season averaging 3+ 40 yard plays per game. The Vols are on that pace right now. And in the last 12 years, the only other team to average more than 4.6 30 yard plays per game is Josh Heupel’s 2019 UCF squad.

When we say this has a chance to be the most explosive offense of the playoff era, and beyond? It’s not just because we’re wearing orange.

You can see in the 40+ yard plays chart the spread of these concepts, from Baylor’s on-field rise following RGIII’s Heisman in 2011, to Oklahoma in the years following Heupel’s presence there. There’s a progression over the course of the last decade from “fun new Big 12 offense” to “best team in the Big 12 is doing it”. And now, to the Vols, who are so far doing it better than any of their predecessors.

Coming into the Alabama game, the Vols were averaging 2.8 40+ yard plays per game, and the Tide defense had only given up three 40+ yard plays the entire season. How will this work against these guys, we wondered?

Quite well, as it turns out. The Vols didn’t slow down for Bama. And that gives me reason to believe we won’t be doing something different with Kentucky, who is 14th nationally in 30+ yard plays allowed with just nine.

In fact, last year’s meeting between the Vols and Cats might be the current peak for Heupel’s offense at UT. It still is from a yards per play perspective against a ranked opponent. The Vols had 461 yards in 47 snaps last season in Lexington. They punted once.

And, of course, they almost lost. That game last year was not just informative as Heupel’s first ranked win here, but a picture of how two teams playing completely different styles can still go blow for blow. Kentucky never punted. Each team missed a field goal. The Vols fumbled inside the Kentucky 30, where they were looking to go up 21-7. And Levis fired a pick six to Alontae Taylor, giving Tennessee a crucial two-possession lead.

The Cats were also stopped on 4th-and-4, 4th-and-7, and finally 4th-and-10 to end the game.

It continues to be no joke to suggest that every stop the Tennessee defense gets creates an incredible opportunity for separation. History shows the Vols are going to swing for the fences, regardless of opponent, and did that better against this opponent last year than just about any other. Kentucky is capable of returning fire, just in a very different and frustrating fashion. In this week’s expected win total machine, fans give the Vols a 73.2% chance of victory and project 10.71 regular season wins.

That’s plenty of words to say this: Get stops. Hit bombs. The Vols are doing the first part better than they were last year. And they’re doing the second part better than any offense of the playoff era.

Don’t stop now.

Go Vols.

Last week our community win total moved to 10.72 regular season wins. Here’s the week-by-week total:

This week’s win total machine is at the bottom of this post; I wouldn’t be shocked to see that number come down just a hair, as last week’s total includes that Monday morning feeling of having just beaten Alabama. But no matter how you look at it…we’ve come a long way in a hurry.

On October 10, 2020, Tennessee led #3 Georgia 21-17 at halftime. After two turnovers, it was still within reach at 23-21 Georgia with 35 seconds left in the third quarter. The Dawgs found the end zone on 3rd-and-7 from the 21, the Vols went three-and-out, and Georgia added two more scores from there for a 44-21 win.

The Vols were close for a half, then had a turnover-induced setback to leave us with a similar end result to our previous three encounters with Georgia. Still, forward progress seemed available and attainable. The Vols welcomed Kentucky to Neyland Stadium the following Saturday.

In pre-covid days, October 17 was our bye week, so I was at my sister-in-law’s wedding. I wasn’t there in person to witness what happened or describe its atmosphere. The radio told me the Vols turned it over on four consecutive possessions, two of them pick sixes. Even so, it was only 17-7 at halftime.

To open the third quarter, the Vols had 3rd-and-2 at their own 29. Eric Gray got a yard, and Tennessee punted. And a Kentucky offense that had been completely bottled up in the first half came to life, and took it from Tennessee. 75 yards in 11 plays, never facing more than 3rd-and-1, and a three-possession lead. The Vols punted once more. Kentucky’s punter never saw the field again.

The 34-7 victory for the Wildcats remains Tennessee’s worst performance relative to the spread in 40+ years, favored by 6.5 and losing by 27. It wasn’t the last straw for the previous administration. But in hindsight, the Vols got no closer to forward progress than at halftime of the Georgia game the week before. And six quarters later, the bottom fell out.

That was two years ago. That was the last time Kentucky came to Neyland Stadium.

And there may be no better point from which to measure the growth of this program than what has transpired since then.

When this season is over, there will be plenty of time for the big picture of Tennessee Football. “So fast” will still be a perfect description for how this program went from total uncertainty to total jubilation in around 20 months.

But in an even shorter timetable, the Vols took the things they were worst at on both sides of the ball, and made them genuine strengths just one year later. Improvements not small, but significant. And they did so without a significant turnover in the players involved.

These would be remarkable accomplishments even if the Vols weren’t undefeated and ranked third in the nation. But that’s the thing: they’re a big part of why the team is as good as they are right now. Instead of, “If we can just be a little bit better…”, the Vols got good for real in two critical areas.

Pass Protection

Last year Tennessee quarterbacks were sacked on 10.88% of their pass attempts vs FBS competition. It was 123rd nationally, and the worst number of the post-Fulmer era.

2021 Tennessee Sack Rate Allowed vs Power Five

Opponent	Sacks	Pct.
Pittsburgh	5	13.2%
Florida	4	11.4%
Missouri	1	5.0%
South Carolina	6	20.7%
Ole Miss	5	14.7%
Alabama	3	9.7%
Kentucky	5	20.0%
Georgia	6	11.1%
Vanderbilt	0	0.0%
Purdue	2	4.5%

Even in victory, you can see how defenses played feast or famine with Tennessee last season. South Carolina’s brief run in the second half was fueled by getting to Hendon Hooker, and Kentucky got two sacks on Tennessee’s final drive to keep the Vols out of the end zone, leaving the outcome in doubt.

Last year, power five defenses got the quarterback 4+ times in six games.

This year, they’ve yet to do it.

2022 Tennessee Sack Rate Allowed vs Power Five

Opponent	Sacks	Pct.
Pittsburgh	3	6.7%
Florida	3	9.7%
LSU	0	0.0%
Alabama	1	3.1%

Now we’re talking.

Overall, the 2022 Vols allow a sack on 4.55% of their passing attempts, 42nd nationally. If it holds all year, that would be Tennessee’s lowest number since the 2012-2013 offensive lines that sent three players to the NFL Draft. One year after the worst performance in pass protection in the post-Fulmer era, the Vols are getting their best performance in pass protection in ten years.

The work Darnell Wright did on Will Anderson was spectacular, erasing an assumption that he would simply get there eventually. And Tennessee’s running backs are noticeably better here too, doing a beautiful job helping Hooker get a clean pocket to turn it loose. Keeping him clean is an enormous part of his Heisman conversation. And Hooker getting 3+ yards per carry continues to be the most reliable stat for Tennessee’s ultimate success, with the Vols now 10-1 in his starts when he hits that number.

A huge shout out to the offensive line and Tennessee’s pass protection. And that’s not the only place the Vols made a huge turnaround.

Red Zone Defense

We continue to revisit the, “How many stops do we need to win?” conversation, with Tennessee’s offense playing so well. One thing that fed into that narrative last season: when teams got into the red zone against the Vols, they scored almost every time. On 50 red zone visits, opponents scored 46 times in 2021. Two of the stops were against South Alabama, one was in garbage time. And one was a huge play, with Tennessee intercepting South Carolina’s trick play in the end zone, swiftly turning what could’ve been a 14-7 game into a 21-0 Vol lead.

And 36 of those 46 scores in the red zone last year were touchdowns, 72% overall. That ranked 119th nationally.

2021 Tennessee Red Zone TDs Allowed vs Power Five

Opponent	Red Zone	TDs
Pittsburgh	7	5
Florida	5	4
Missouri	2	2
South Carolina	4	2
Ole Miss	4	3
Alabama	7	7
Kentucky	5	5
Georgia	4	3
Vanderbilt	2	2
Purdue	6	2

After making just four total red zone stops last year, this season the Vols have turned teams away seven times already. And, amazingly, teams are scoring touchdowns in the red zone against the Vols less than 50% of the time.

2022 Tennessee Red Zone TDs Allowed vs Power Five

Opponent	Red Zone	TDs
Pittsburgh	5	1
Florida	6	4
LSU	4	2
Alabama	6	4

The defense was relentless against Pittsburgh in this department, a crucial factor in an overtime win. And in their three huge SEC contests, the defense turned Florida, LSU, and Alabama away twice each Saturday.

The Vols are one of just 17 teams to allow points in the red zone on less than 75% of an opponent’s trips, and one of just 23 teams to allow touchdowns in the red zone on less than 50%. After allowing a touchdown 72% of the time last season, this year it’s at 46%, 19th nationally.

In short: Tennessee’s pass protection is helping this offense go from great to elite. And with an elite offense, a great red zone defense allows the entire team play at a championship level.