Author Archives: Will Shelton

For a while this season, I found myself waiting for enough distance to be sure we were out of the wilderness. Some of this is the ghosts of 2016, for sure. But coming in, that was a good goal for the 2022 season: put together the best year in 15 years, win 9 or 10 games, compete. Make progress. Have a season where, when it ended, we could all look back at it and say, “Yep, good job.”

And now, in part I find myself reminded of the Israelites: fresh out of Egypt, but because that was all they knew for so long, they still find themselves looking back. Meanwhile, the miraculous is happening all around them. And you don’t want to miss a single step of it.

That’s still the problem, in part: we believed there were steps to this, and maybe these Vols could take one or two this year. There are certainly supposed to be steps between 7-6 and 8-0. None of us ever dreamed it could happen so fast.

In fact, that’s one of my favorite things about blogging: there are more easily accessible ways to go back and see what you thought two years ago, or fifteen years ago, or whatever. And to do so is often humbling.

After a series of low points – Kiffin leaving, Kentucky in 2011, the back half of 2016, the vulnerability of Schiano Sunday – the Vols hit the last of these places in 2020. From halftime of the Georgia game, it was a steep fall to Kentucky, still the worst loss in terms of underperforming the spread in 40 years.

But after that, two trips to Arkansas and Auburn in November 2020 really put things in perspective. Against a Razorback team that went 2-10 in consecutive years in 2018 and 2019, Sam Pittman’s year one squad turned a 13-0 halftime deficit into a 24-13 Arkansas win. In that second half, Tennessee went three-and-out three times, then four-and-out, then three-and-out, then two interceptions. (Pittman’s Arkansas teams are a good example of the kind of step-based success that would’ve been welcomed here!)

At Auburn two weeks later (the covid year had all these bye weeks that made everything, you know, longer) the Vols again jumped to a two-possession lead, watched Auburn go back in front 13-10, then fired a 100-yard pick six late in the third quarter.

Around this time, we started writing about things in terms of exile, and not just wilderness. How a stiff neck won’t get you out any faster. And not to believe the prophets who tell you this can all be over soon.

And that, of course, is the thing.

Not only are the Vols clearly out of the wilderness, two years later.

Tennessee is the number one team in the country.

The miraculous is happening all around us.

It’s in my nature to be supportive, to rally around current coaches, all that. And I come up short on that plenty still.

And sometimes we just get it wrong. I was wrong about the amount of time it would take Tennessee to move forward from two years ago.

But I’m not sure I should have been.

We fans all want the sure thing, which never really exists. No one believed Josh Heupel was it two Januarys ago. And the longer you’ve been away, the more your stomach growls.

You don’t get out of the wilderness with a stiff neck. I think it’s more about simple obedience. Which, in this case, was the very non-rocket science answer of:

• Hire an athletic director who is really good at their job
• Let them hire a football coach who is also really good at his job

For all the ups and downs of a season that, if Tennessee makes it to the national championship game, is still only 53% over? My most emotional moment remains the morning of the Alabama game, watching the opening of College Gameday. Watching a song I’ve poked fun at more often than not. A song Tennessee used to be in, and then they took us out.

Even if Tennessee wins it all this year and Heupel stays forever, we won’t always be ranked number one. You can also miss the miracle of the moment by looking too far ahead. But right now, Tennessee is in the national championship conversation. One that’s getting ready to expand to 12 teams.

That’s the goal. Be there. And right now, the Vols certainly are.

And then when you make it all the way to the top? Man, be grateful.

I have no idea what’s left in these last 5-7 games. But we’re way past belief now, and into expectation. It’s Heupel’s own line about not putting a timetable on ourselves, just being as good as we can as fast as we can.

And this team is much better, much faster than it had any right to be.

There will be more time in the off-season to dive into all that. I simply use it today as a way of helping us not miss the miraculous.

Because it is happening all around us.

Go Vols.

Now two-thirds of the way home, we know a few things. The community will project the Vols to win 11 regular season games this week through some degree of rounding; we’re all mostly curious to see the Georgia number. During Alabama week, fans gave the Vols a 38.3% chance of victory in Knoxville. But once we got that victory, the Georgia numbers have consistently been higher than that. How high are we going this week? How many of us are going 51% or better?

Missouri’s win at South Carolina makes it easier to see that last stretch as a whole. The Tigers are now 4-4 with New Mexico State left on the schedule, so they need one for bowl eligibility. The Gamecocks are 5-3 and can get there via Vanderbilt this week, before closing with the Gators, Vols, and Tigers. We predict those expected win percentages will be high.

All the advanced math conversation will really be about the College Football Playoff poll, released tomorrow night at 7:00 PM ET. But even playing Georgia at any version of #1 through #3, we won’t really be able to learn a whole lot of relevant information about how the committee sees the Vols until next week. If Tennessee loses, where the Vols land in comparison to Clemson and TCU would be of particular importance, though they’ll both be tested on Saturday. The Horned Frogs host Texas Tech at noon; Clemson is at Notre Dame at 7:30.

And of course, if Tennessee beats Georgia, projections will be irrelevant.

Enjoy the week!

Early in the fourth quarter, a middle-aged thought occurred to me: we could leave. Tennessee was safely ahead 37-6, Kentucky showed no signs of aggression on offense, this thing was headed towards a certain finish. Fifteen years ago I was in my mid-20s, when you welcome night games. Now there are adult responsibilities to attend to, etc. We could leave.

We did not.

And I really enjoyed having different versions of that conversation at church this morning. There were more opportunities to leave early in those last fifteen years than any of us wanted. Now, every week feels like an opportunity – a gift – just to watch this team, to take it all in.

This week’s edition of that included:

Poor old Paxton Brooks, loneliest guy on the team, just tear-dropping a pair of punts inside the Kentucky three yard line. Just because we don’t do it don’t mean we ain’t good at it! Give him a chance! (…not really, but good to know it’s there when we need it!)

Doneiko Slaughter, who in 2020 started as a true freshman in game one at South Carolina, then fell far down the depth chart. The Vols continue to be thin and banged up in the secondary, here comes Will Levis, Kentucky looking to cut it to 20-13 with less than five minutes to play in the first half:

What a hit leading to the pick by Juwan Mitchell pic.twitter.com/NSSdOksP8w

— Joe Broback (@joebroback) October 30, 2022

This tweet, from the always helpful SportSource Analytics:

The @Vol_Football team is scoring an FBS-best 1.86 points per minute of possession. This is 18% better than any other FBS #CollegeFootball team in 2022. pic.twitter.com/KaPG84HE1R

— SportSource Analytics (@SportSourceA) October 30, 2022

And last, but certainly not least, Tennessee’s basketball team walking over to say hello to the Kentucky fans. Of all the is-this-an-alternate-dimension things we’ve seen in Neyland Stadium this year, this one impressively holds it own. They were greeted with the kind of response you get from a proud fanbase, frustrated and feeling it has few alternatives when you haven’t won enough recently to make a difference against the other team.

A funny moment from the 1st half: Tennessee recognized its men's basketball team. And the Volunteers looked like they were having some fun trash talk with the Kentucky fan section. pic.twitter.com/1cGsCsravn

— Tyler Greever (@Tyler_Greever) October 30, 2022

All of these things happened in game eight of this 2022 football season, just some of just one week’s worth of a season that is increasingly difficult to describe but has never been easier to enjoy.

And next, in game nine, it’s #1 Georgia vs #2 Tennessee.

On paper, we now have our second entry of the season on this list:

Highest Ranked vs Ranked Games since 1968

• 1998: #1 Tennessee vs #2 Florida State (BCS Championship) (W 23-16)
• 2022: #1 Georgia vs #2 Tennessee
• 1997: #2 Nebraska vs #3 Tennessee (Orange Bowl) (L 42-17)
• 1996: #2 Tennessee vs #4 Florida (L 35-29)
• 1997: #2 Florida vs #4 Tennessee (L 33-20)
• 1999: #2 Tennessee at #4 Florida (L 23-21)
• 2001: #2 Florida vs #5 Tennessee (W 34-32)
• 1990: #3 Auburn vs #5 Tennessee (T 26-26)
• 1995: #4 Tennessee vs #4 Ohio State (Citrus Bowl) (W 20-14)
• 1998: #2 Florida at #6 Tennessee (W 20-17 OT)
• 1999: #3 Nebraska vs #6 Tennessee (Fiesta Bowl) (L 31-21)
• 2022: #3 Alabama at #6 Tennessee (W 52-49)

Which, seen through this lens, would make this the biggest regular season game in the history of the program.

But these days are indeed new. All of those other contests took place in the BCS era or before. When Tennessee and Florida met in 1996-99 and in 2001, it felt like all or nothing, even in September. Win, and your dreams were not just available, but attainable. Lose, and the thrust of your entire season became about hoping Florida would lose twice.

Wherever Tennessee appears in Tuesday’s College Football Playoff poll, arguments about Georgia will get resolved four days later. You want to leave the Dawgs at #1 as the undefeated defending champs, fine. You like the Vols at #1 because of the resume, fine. Somebody’s going to win on Saturday.

But for the one who doesn’t, in a playoff world that we’re learning to navigate in real time together? It’s not over. And either us or Georgia wouldn’t need anything as unlikely as two mid-90s Florida losses to still get in.

I still worry about what a 12-team playoff might do to the regular season sometimes; that’s a conversation for a different day. But now, we’ll get to have it from personal experience. What last night’s win and next week’s clash would and wouldn’t mean, who knows.

But I know last night was incredible in ways that aren’t exclusively tied to being 8-0. And I know next week will be incredible in all the ways that are, no matter how many teams are in the playoffs.

Perfection is hard. And when you actually get it, like the Vols did in 1998, it becomes harder to live with anything less.

But introducing a little grace into the story – especially from the viewpoint of 15 years outside the national story – is usually a good idea.

It will not make us want to win any less on Saturday, a historic clash by any definition. But whether the loser gets in or not, I think grace helps put everything in perspective.

We’ve seen a lot in Neyland, and had plenty of notions to leave.

But stay, and you get to see the whole picture, the whole thing in motion. There is so much to take in, even more to enjoy right now. Wherever this story is headed next, the Vols are a gift.

And I cannot wait to see what they do with next week’s opportunity.

Tennessee is living this incredible combination of things that would be considered good in any season, plus x number of years since an entire season was considered good. At some point, the conversation has to include how you can’t include it all. Too much fun since much too long, etc.

Each week, I find myself drawn to some hilarious new representation of the intersection of these two ideas. This time, it’s the fact that the Vols have now overtaken the service academies on the yards per attempt leaderboard:

Passing Yards Per Attempt

1. Tennessee, 11.4, 226 attempts
2. Air Force, 11.0, 60 attempts
3. Army, 10.8, 63 attempts
4. Ohio State, 10.5, 208 attempts

No one else in college football is in double digits.

This is the whole team number, of course, so Joe Milton and others are in there. For individual quarterbacks, Hendon Hooker still leads the country at 10.8 yards per attempt. C.J. Stroud is just behind at 10.6. And tied for third: Will Levis, at 10.0.

The biggest difference between those two quarterbacks continues to be interceptions: five for Levis, just the one for Hooker. But for the entire offense, the Vols are still the much more explosive team.

And not just compared to Kentucky.

30+ Yard Plays

1. Tennessee, 32
2. TCU, 27
3. UCF, 26
4. North Texas, 26 (8 games)
5. Ohio State, 25
6. Alabama, 24 (8 games)

40+ Yard Plays

1. Tennessee, 21
2. North Texas, 17 (8 games)
3. Army & Memphis, 15

The Vols are averaging 4.6 30+ yard plays per game, and 3 40+ yard plays per game. Among power five schools that have played seven games, Ohio State and TCU are next on the 40+ yard play list at two per game.

If those numbers held for the Vols, here’s how they would compare to the national leaders in previous years:

Most 30+ Yard Plays Per Game, 2010-22

Year	Team	30+ Per Game
2022	Tennessee	4.6
2021	Liberty/UTEP	3.3
2020	Arkansas St	4.0
2019	UCF	4.9
2018	Ole Miss	4.3
2017	Oklahoma St	4.4
2016	Western KY	4.4
2015	Baylor	4.5
2014	Marshall	4.1
2013	Baylor	4.3
2012	Baylor	4.4
2011	Houston	4.0
2010	Hawaii	4.0

Most 40+ Yard Plays Per Game, 2010-22

Year	Team	40+ Per Game
2022	Tennessee	3.0
2021	Kent State	2.0
2020	UCF	2.4
2019	Memphis	2.5
2018	Oklahoma	2.4
2017	Oklahoma	2.6
2016	Oklahoma	2.5
2015	Baylor/TTU	2.4
2014	Baylor/ColoSt	2.2
2013	Baylor	2.8
2012	Baylor	2.5
2011	Houston	2.5
2010	San Diego St	2.1

In the last 12 years, no team has finished a season averaging 3+ 40 yard plays per game. The Vols are on that pace right now. And in the last 12 years, the only other team to average more than 4.6 30 yard plays per game is Josh Heupel’s 2019 UCF squad.

When we say this has a chance to be the most explosive offense of the playoff era, and beyond? It’s not just because we’re wearing orange.

You can see in the 40+ yard plays chart the spread of these concepts, from Baylor’s on-field rise following RGIII’s Heisman in 2011, to Oklahoma in the years following Heupel’s presence there. There’s a progression over the course of the last decade from “fun new Big 12 offense” to “best team in the Big 12 is doing it”. And now, to the Vols, who are so far doing it better than any of their predecessors.

Coming into the Alabama game, the Vols were averaging 2.8 40+ yard plays per game, and the Tide defense had only given up three 40+ yard plays the entire season. How will this work against these guys, we wondered?

Quite well, as it turns out. The Vols didn’t slow down for Bama. And that gives me reason to believe we won’t be doing something different with Kentucky, who is 14th nationally in 30+ yard plays allowed with just nine.

In fact, last year’s meeting between the Vols and Cats might be the current peak for Heupel’s offense at UT. It still is from a yards per play perspective against a ranked opponent. The Vols had 461 yards in 47 snaps last season in Lexington. They punted once.

And, of course, they almost lost. That game last year was not just informative as Heupel’s first ranked win here, but a picture of how two teams playing completely different styles can still go blow for blow. Kentucky never punted. Each team missed a field goal. The Vols fumbled inside the Kentucky 30, where they were looking to go up 21-7. And Levis fired a pick six to Alontae Taylor, giving Tennessee a crucial two-possession lead.

The Cats were also stopped on 4th-and-4, 4th-and-7, and finally 4th-and-10 to end the game.

It continues to be no joke to suggest that every stop the Tennessee defense gets creates an incredible opportunity for separation. History shows the Vols are going to swing for the fences, regardless of opponent, and did that better against this opponent last year than just about any other. Kentucky is capable of returning fire, just in a very different and frustrating fashion. In this week’s expected win total machine, fans give the Vols a 73.2% chance of victory and project 10.71 regular season wins.

That’s plenty of words to say this: Get stops. Hit bombs. The Vols are doing the first part better than they were last year. And they’re doing the second part better than any offense of the playoff era.

Don’t stop now.

Go Vols.

Last week our community win total moved to 10.72 regular season wins. Here’s the week-by-week total:

This week’s win total machine is at the bottom of this post; I wouldn’t be shocked to see that number come down just a hair, as last week’s total includes that Monday morning feeling of having just beaten Alabama. But no matter how you look at it…we’ve come a long way in a hurry.

On October 10, 2020, Tennessee led #3 Georgia 21-17 at halftime. After two turnovers, it was still within reach at 23-21 Georgia with 35 seconds left in the third quarter. The Dawgs found the end zone on 3rd-and-7 from the 21, the Vols went three-and-out, and Georgia added two more scores from there for a 44-21 win.

The Vols were close for a half, then had a turnover-induced setback to leave us with a similar end result to our previous three encounters with Georgia. Still, forward progress seemed available and attainable. The Vols welcomed Kentucky to Neyland Stadium the following Saturday.

In pre-covid days, October 17 was our bye week, so I was at my sister-in-law’s wedding. I wasn’t there in person to witness what happened or describe its atmosphere. The radio told me the Vols turned it over on four consecutive possessions, two of them pick sixes. Even so, it was only 17-7 at halftime.

To open the third quarter, the Vols had 3rd-and-2 at their own 29. Eric Gray got a yard, and Tennessee punted. And a Kentucky offense that had been completely bottled up in the first half came to life, and took it from Tennessee. 75 yards in 11 plays, never facing more than 3rd-and-1, and a three-possession lead. The Vols punted once more. Kentucky’s punter never saw the field again.

The 34-7 victory for the Wildcats remains Tennessee’s worst performance relative to the spread in 40+ years, favored by 6.5 and losing by 27. It wasn’t the last straw for the previous administration. But in hindsight, the Vols got no closer to forward progress than at halftime of the Georgia game the week before. And six quarters later, the bottom fell out.

That was two years ago. That was the last time Kentucky came to Neyland Stadium.

And there may be no better point from which to measure the growth of this program than what has transpired since then.

When this season is over, there will be plenty of time for the big picture of Tennessee Football. “So fast” will still be a perfect description for how this program went from total uncertainty to total jubilation in around 20 months.

But in an even shorter timetable, the Vols took the things they were worst at on both sides of the ball, and made them genuine strengths just one year later. Improvements not small, but significant. And they did so without a significant turnover in the players involved.

These would be remarkable accomplishments even if the Vols weren’t undefeated and ranked third in the nation. But that’s the thing: they’re a big part of why the team is as good as they are right now. Instead of, “If we can just be a little bit better…”, the Vols got good for real in two critical areas.

Pass Protection

Last year Tennessee quarterbacks were sacked on 10.88% of their pass attempts vs FBS competition. It was 123rd nationally, and the worst number of the post-Fulmer era.

2021 Tennessee Sack Rate Allowed vs Power Five

Opponent	Sacks	Pct.
Pittsburgh	5	13.2%
Florida	4	11.4%
Missouri	1	5.0%
South Carolina	6	20.7%
Ole Miss	5	14.7%
Alabama	3	9.7%
Kentucky	5	20.0%
Georgia	6	11.1%
Vanderbilt	0	0.0%
Purdue	2	4.5%

Even in victory, you can see how defenses played feast or famine with Tennessee last season. South Carolina’s brief run in the second half was fueled by getting to Hendon Hooker, and Kentucky got two sacks on Tennessee’s final drive to keep the Vols out of the end zone, leaving the outcome in doubt.

Last year, power five defenses got the quarterback 4+ times in six games.

This year, they’ve yet to do it.

2022 Tennessee Sack Rate Allowed vs Power Five

Opponent	Sacks	Pct.
Pittsburgh	3	6.7%
Florida	3	9.7%
LSU	0	0.0%
Alabama	1	3.1%

Now we’re talking.

Overall, the 2022 Vols allow a sack on 4.55% of their passing attempts, 42nd nationally. If it holds all year, that would be Tennessee’s lowest number since the 2012-2013 offensive lines that sent three players to the NFL Draft. One year after the worst performance in pass protection in the post-Fulmer era, the Vols are getting their best performance in pass protection in ten years.

The work Darnell Wright did on Will Anderson was spectacular, erasing an assumption that he would simply get there eventually. And Tennessee’s running backs are noticeably better here too, doing a beautiful job helping Hooker get a clean pocket to turn it loose. Keeping him clean is an enormous part of his Heisman conversation. And Hooker getting 3+ yards per carry continues to be the most reliable stat for Tennessee’s ultimate success, with the Vols now 10-1 in his starts when he hits that number.

A huge shout out to the offensive line and Tennessee’s pass protection. And that’s not the only place the Vols made a huge turnaround.

Red Zone Defense

We continue to revisit the, “How many stops do we need to win?” conversation, with Tennessee’s offense playing so well. One thing that fed into that narrative last season: when teams got into the red zone against the Vols, they scored almost every time. On 50 red zone visits, opponents scored 46 times in 2021. Two of the stops were against South Alabama, one was in garbage time. And one was a huge play, with Tennessee intercepting South Carolina’s trick play in the end zone, swiftly turning what could’ve been a 14-7 game into a 21-0 Vol lead.

And 36 of those 46 scores in the red zone last year were touchdowns, 72% overall. That ranked 119th nationally.

2021 Tennessee Red Zone TDs Allowed vs Power Five

Opponent	Red Zone	TDs
Pittsburgh	7	5
Florida	5	4
Missouri	2	2
South Carolina	4	2
Ole Miss	4	3
Alabama	7	7
Kentucky	5	5
Georgia	4	3
Vanderbilt	2	2
Purdue	6	2

After making just four total red zone stops last year, this season the Vols have turned teams away seven times already. And, amazingly, teams are scoring touchdowns in the red zone against the Vols less than 50% of the time.

2022 Tennessee Red Zone TDs Allowed vs Power Five

Opponent	Red Zone	TDs
Pittsburgh	5	1
Florida	6	4
LSU	4	2
Alabama	6	4

The defense was relentless against Pittsburgh in this department, a crucial factor in an overtime win. And in their three huge SEC contests, the defense turned Florida, LSU, and Alabama away twice each Saturday.

The Vols are one of just 17 teams to allow points in the red zone on less than 75% of an opponent’s trips, and one of just 23 teams to allow touchdowns in the red zone on less than 50%. After allowing a touchdown 72% of the time last season, this year it’s at 46%, 19th nationally.

In short: Tennessee’s pass protection is helping this offense go from great to elite. And with an elite offense, a great red zone defense allows the entire team play at a championship level.

Okay.

Tennessee’s path to Atlanta goes straight through Athens. While our schedule should lighten in the final three weeks, Georgia’s does get a little slippery. The Dawgs are off this week, then the Cocktail Party, then us. Should the Vols falter between the hedges, Georgia will still have a trip to Starkville and Lexington remaining. If both UT and UGA get to November 5 undefeated, we would need Georgia to lose both those road games to get back to Atlanta. Seems unlikely; we should just beat them, right?

So in the win total machine, we’re always looking at the overall picture, which this week should project 11-1 as Tennessee’s most likely outcome. But after beating Alabama (where fans gave us a 38.3% chance going in), how will our view of Georgia change? Last week, fans gave Tennessee a 29% chance of victory in Athens. I predict that number is going up.

Before then, the Vols will have to deal with Kentucky in Knoxville, another ranked vs ranked game with the Cats off this week. There will be plenty of time to speak of this next week…but consider the distance between the last time we played these guys in Neyland and right now.

The Vols, of course, could have other paths to the playoffs. A narrow loss at Georgia and an 11-1 finish would give the Vols a tough-to-beat resume among one-loss teams. And if Tennessee arrives in Atlanta undefeated, you’d need something really strange to keep the Vols out of the playoffs from that point.

The most dangerous of the really stranges: multiple undefeated teams from conferences outside the Big Ten. Right now, your top four will become a top two once the dust clears between the Vols and Dawgs, and Ohio State and Michigan. Alabama controls its own destiny to face the East winner.

Here’s the most complicated scenario: Georgia beats the Vols, then loses to Alabama in Atlanta. In our non-division future, that’s essentially a three-way tie. So what happens on Selection Sunday if you’ve got 12-1 Alabama, 12-1 Georgia, and 11-1 Tennessee? The winner of Ohio State and Michigan would certainly get in, and I think that would make a tidy field of four. But things would get murky in a hurry if you also had an undefeated Clemson, or TCU, or UCLA.

As long as Tennessee is undefeated, we don’t have to worry about any of that. We’re pretty safe along those lines this week. But along the way, if those other undefeated teams were to falter? That helps us. So too do things like Kentucky beating Mississippi State last week, and South Carolina continuing to win. All that continues to help our own resume should we need it as a fall back.

May I present to you:

Playoff Games of Interest This Week

• #14 Syracuse at #5 Clemson – 12:00 PM – ABC
• #7 Ole Miss at LSU – 3:30 PM – CBS
• #9 UCLA at #10 Oregon – 3:30 PM – FOX/FS1
• #17 Kansas State at #8 TCU – 8:00 PM – FOX/FS1

One undefeated will fall in Death Valley; Clemson would be the preference, right? In Baton Rouge, LSU can continue to bolster Tennessee’s resume…unless you want the version of events where we get Kiffin and Ole Miss in Atlanta. Oregon over UCLA and Kansas State over TCU are clear-cut outcomes that would benefit Tennessee.

When you think you can win every game, all of this is secondary. But especially in a week of welcoming our FCS friends, if you want some good insurance? Those would be good outcomes.

Enjoy your week.

Man, am I happy to see Tennessee-Martin at the end of this week.

Tennessee’s Top 5 Wins, Last 50 Years

• #1: 1985 Auburn
• #2: 1982 Alabama, 1985 Miami, 1998 Florida, 1998 Florida State, 2001 Florida
• #3: 2004 Georgia, 2022 Alabama
• #4: 1989 Auburn, 1992 Florida, 1995 Ohio State, 2005 LSU
• #5: 1991 Notre Dame

This baker’s dozen is, as you’d expect, as good as it gets. Remember that graphic they always run about, “No Top 10 wins since…”? We skipped that one entirely and went straight to this one, even though the difference was only one year from 2006 Georgia to 2005 LSU. Your mileage may vary on your favorites, and we need the rest of this season for full context. But put last night in the conversation for anything you consider to be our biggest win.

Most Ranked Wins in a Season

• 6: 1998 (#17 Syracuse, #2 Florida, #7 Georgia, #10 Arkansas, #23 Mississippi State, #2 Florida State)
• 4: 1991 (#21 UCLA, #23 Mississippi State, #13 Auburn, #5 Notre Dame)
• 4: 2001 (#14 LSU, #12 South Carolina, #2 Florida, #17 Michigan)
• 4: 2022 (#17 Pittsburgh, #20 Florida, #25 LSU, #3 Alabama)

The 1991 team played a record seven ranked vs ranked games. All the other comparisons right now, on this and multiple levels, are 1998 and 2001. The Vols will get at least two more of those opportunities with #19 Kentucky off this week, and the Vols and Georgia ranked so high. If those two teams stay at #1 and #3, it will be the highest ranked game Tennessee has played in outside of the 1998 BCS title game.

Offense Yards Per Play vs Ranked Opponent (since 1989)

• 2021 at #18 Kentucky, 9.81 yards per play
• 2006 vs #9 California, 8.43
• 1997 vs #13 Georgia, 8.26
• 2022 vs #20 Florida, 8.23
• 2022 vs #3 Alabama, 8.10

Hello, Josh Heupel. Hendon Hooker’s yards per attempt in these games: 15.8 vs Kentucky, 12.5 vs Florida, 12.8 vs Alabama. Mercy.

Whatever your question, tonight the answer is yes.

Are we back? Can we win it all? Is that the best win since ___________? Are these actual questions? Is this really happening?

Can Hendon Hooker win the Heisman? Can Jalin Hyatt? Didn’t we lose like 338 players to the portal and not know who our head coach would be for an entire month? Was that really just 20 months ago?

Did we miss an extra point and fumble away a touchdown and it just didn’t matter? Against Alabama?

Is this really happening?

Yes. Yes. Yes.

Tonight in Neyland Stadium, the past, the present, and the future collided, and they made the prettiest orange. It’s tonight, not today, because that thing lasted three hours and fifty-five minutes and one hundred and one points.

It lasted fifteen years, but only once you realized we could actually do it. And that took one drive for each team. Any “maybe we’re not quite ready for Bama yet”s were gone after that. If the Florida streak was the Red Sox, this one was the Cubs: constant futility, little hope, but we’re trying to have a good time anyway.

But tonight, this became the sort of game where you knew, even if the Vols lost it, Tennessee had made its case. The Vols belonged on the national stage, with Bama and thus with anyone. The kind of case where you feel like you can still make the playoffs even if you don’t win.

But we might as well win.

TENNESSEE TAKES DOWN ALABAMA AND THE FANS ARE STORMING THE FIELD AT NEYLAND STADIUM.

WHAT A WIN FOR THE VOLS. pic.twitter.com/1MkxrkyxBA

— CBS Sports (@CBSSports) October 15, 2022

You want more?

#Vols played a walk-on DB on the final series because literally everyone else was hurt, and they beat Alabama.

Incredible.

— Wes Rucker (@wesrucker247) October 15, 2022

Prior to today, AP top-3 teams were 476-0 when scoring 49+ points

They are now 476-1

— Matt Brown (@MattBrownCFB) October 16, 2022

Also, remember Cedric Tillman? Do you think Kentucky and Georgia will?

Did Jalin Hyatt really have six catches for 207 yards and five touchdowns? Is that in the conversation for the best game we’ve ever seen a UT wide receiver play, including that time Peerless Price had four for 199 in the national championship?

Remember when Kelley Washington had like 18723104 catches for 238472104720148 yards against LSU and they just kept going to him because it just kept working? Who was the coach of that LSU team, whatever happened to that guy?

That’s right, that’s a 2001 LSU joke! We can even do that now!

Because now, the Vols are at the adult table. And when you think your team can beat anybody? You stop worrying about how long it’s been and start thinking about when we get to play again.

There are thousands of words to be said about this game, thousands more about what’s ahead. It’s a good week to welcome an FCS team to the schedule! I’ve felt for a while Josh Heupel’s Tennessee teams make the sport feel more like basketball, where you’re always just a couple of threes away from things changing. But this felt more like tennis tonight, with every broken serve a gift.

Every stop from a defense was like gold. And we may move to a time where, realistically, the best measure to predict Tennessee’s ultimate success is how many stops they can get. They got three tonight, then added a fourth when Bama missed the field goal. Even against the vaunted Crimson Tide, four was enough. Meanwhile, the Vols only punted once (which worked out great!), but were stopped on fourth down twice and turned it over twice more. And still: both offenses were spectacular. Every Tennessee possession felt like possibility and every Alabama possession felt like a threat.

But in such an even game, the ultimate beauty tonight: all three phases were there in the final minute when Tennessee absolutely had to have it.

Alabama had 1st-and-10 at the 32 yard line with 34 seconds left. And the defense got three straight incompletions, leaving the Tide with a 50-yard field goal that didn’t go in.

Tennessee had 1st-and-10 from the 32 yard line with 15 seconds left. And the offense couldn’t have drawn it up any better: 18 yards to Ramel Keyton, 27 yards to Bru McCoy.

And then special teams, where Chase McGrath wrote his name into Tennessee legend. It wasn’t perfect. But it was good.

Nothing has been perfect for Tennessee in a long time. Some of you all reading this have been following along with us since the Lane Kiffin hiring. We’ve been together through lots of difficult days, interesting though they were. And you learn along the way that it’s not the winning that keeps you around, clearly. It’s the thing itself. The relationship between a team and its fans. The atmosphere. The everything.

This team has put itself in position to do everything. There are no comparisons, there’s no unhealthy connection to the past and no concern about the future. This team is writing its own story, and it’s an incredible one so far. There is so much left to do.

It won’t be perfect. But it can continue to be good.

And right now, Tennessee’s good is good enough to do anything.

Yes, even this.

Yes, even that.

Yes.

Go Vols.

Truly, truly a privilege to write about this game.

The Vols are good, playing at such a high level right now I find a new stat every week that makes me laugh. This week: Tennessee is only 81st nationally in 10+ yard plays from scrimmage, with 79 in five games. But the Vols are first in the nation with 14 plays of 40+ yards. It’s like we don’t have time for your pitiful 10-yard gains, we’re just erasing the whole field at once.

Last year the Vols finished with 23 40+ yard plays, seventh nationally. That’s 1.8 of these huge plays per game in 2021, 2.8 per game so far this year. And again: we’ve played three ranked teams.

I’m sure you would not be surprised that 23 40+ yard plays last season was UT’s highest total in at least the last 12 years. You may have forgotten or moved on enough to not know that this season’s 14 40+ yard plays are already more than the Vols had in all of 2011, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2017, 2019, and 2020. In that last one, the season before Josh Heupel took over, the Vols had three 40+ yard plays in ten games.

And three is the same number of 40+ yard plays Alabama’s defense has given up this season.

It’s not a guarantee of success: Iowa leads the nation in that department, yet to surrender a single 40+ yard play. But the Hawkeyes are 3-3. Georgia Tech and Temple have only given up one.

I think it’s more a question of game plan and game management: do you take a ton of shots against this defense? It worked for three quarters last year, when the Vols hit touchdowns of 57 and 70 yards, and had a 39-yard completion to set up a score on the opening drive. Is there any such thing as too aggressive for Tennessee?

One thing worth watching early in this game: last year Vol running backs combined for only 38 yards on 14 carries. We couldn’t run on them – not the first time we’ve seen that problem against Bama or Georgia – and we saw a bit of this earlier in the year at Pittsburgh. Ten of the Vols’ first dozen play calls in that one were pass plays, and UT ended that overtime affair with just 19 carries and 64 yards for running backs. There was an admission that running into the teeth of that defensive front just wasn’t going to be fruitful, and UT didn’t spend much time banging its head against that particular wall.

Flash forward to LSU, and six of Tennessee’s first eight play calls were runs. Tennessee’s backs had 36 carries for exactly 200 yards. All of that to say this: Tennessee’s offense is flexible. The Vols don’t have to hit home runs to beat you, especially when the defense is playing well.

Do the Vols have to hit home runs to beat Alabama? And if so, how many?

There’s that question. There’s the question of how many times Tennessee’s defense can get off the field.

But I’m a big believer in dancing with the one who brung you. And over two seasons now, no stat tells that story better than what Hendon Hooker does with his legs, and how often he’s brought down behind the line.

Last year, the thing Tennessee was absolutely worst at was pass protection: Vol QBs were sacked on 10.94% of their passing attempts vs FBS foes, 123rd in the nation. That was the highest percentage of sacks allowed in the post-Fulmer era, and I’m sure that number goes back farther than that.

This year, Tennessee has so far trimmed that number to 4.82%, 48th nationally. If it held there the entire season, it would be the best job UT’s pass protection did since the 2011-2013 group sent Ja’Wuan James, Zach Fulton, and Dallas Thomas to the NFL Draft. That number, of course, is also getting ready to face Will Anderson and friends.

Here’s the best way to explain it: since Hendon Hooker became the starting quarterback, the Vols are 9-1 when he averages 3+ yards per carry, 2-4 when he doesn’t.

• In 11 wins: 118 carries for 578 yards (4.9 per carry), 24 sacks
• In 5 losses: 85 carries for 217 yards (2.6 per carry), 20 sacks

Like anything else, it’s not a perfect number: Hooker was really good on the ground against Ole Miss last year (23 carries for 108 yards) in Tennessee’s narrow loss. But as you can see, that performance accounts for right at half of his rushing yards in the Vols’ five losses he started.

The Vols are good. Are they good enough to beat Alabama with or without Bryce Young, and without any weirdness? Can Tennessee continue to focus on themselves, play their game, and have it be good enough against the very best?

If so, I think these are the questions:

• Can Hendon Hooker find success with his legs?
• Can the Vols protect him as a passer?
• How many times can Tennessee’s defense get off the field without giving up a touchdown?
• How many home runs did the Vols hit?

In our expected win total machine this week, fans are giving Tennessee a 38.3% chance of victory. We can talk about the past here, the number of times that number has been in the single digits. And we can talk about the future, where fans are now projecting a tantalizing 9.98 regular season wins for this team:

But I still like the present tense. It’s the biggest game for the Vols in at least 15 years and maybe 20+. There will be playoff talk no matter the outcome. But it still comes down to the sentence that has meant more than any other to Volunteers through all the years: can Tennessee beat Alabama?

Do that, and anything is possible.

Go Vols.