Author Archives: Joel Hollingsworth

Tennessee opened as a 20-point underdog to Alabama this week, and as I’m writing this, the line is currently Tennessee +21. Here’s what the GRT Statsy Preview Machine thinks about that.

From the perspective of Tennessee

Each team has played four games, so the SPM is using only 2020 data.

• Tennessee’s Scoring Offense this year: 23.5
• Alabama’s Scoring Offense this year: 48.5
• Tennessee’s Scoring Defense this year: 29.3
• Alabama’s Scoring Defense this year: 28.8

Tennessee’s offense against Alabama’s defense

The Alabama scoring defense of 28.8 is most similar to the following prior Tennessee opponent(s) (FBS only):

• South Carolina 24.5
• Kentucky 20

Tennessee scored only 7 points against Kentucky [FLAG — see below], but 31 against South Carolina. Taken together, that’s 85% of what those teams usually give up, which makes the estimated points for Tennessee against Alabama 24.4.

Tennessee’s defense against Alabama’s offense

The Alabama scoring offense of 48.5 is most similar to the following prior Tennessee opponent(s) (FBS only):

• Georgia 33
• South Carolina 30.5

Georgia got 44 and South Carolina got 27 against Tennessee. Combined, that’s 112% of what those teams usually score. So . . . estimated points for Alabama against Tennessee: 54.3

Estimated score: Tennessee 24.4, Alabama 54.3

From the perspective of Alabama

Alabama’s offense against Tennessee’s defense

The Tennessee scoring defense of 29.3 is most similar to the following prior Alabama opponent(s) (FBS only):

• Texas A&M 29
• Missouri 38

Alabama scored 38 points against Missouri but put 52 on Texas A&M. Together, that’s 134% of what those teams usually give up, which makes the estimated points for Alabama against Tennessee 39.2.

Alabama’s defense against Tennessee’s offense

The Tennessee scoring offense of 23.5 is most similar to the following prior Alabama opponent(s) (FBS only):

• Missouri 25.3
• Texas A&M 27.5

Missouri got only 19 points against Alabama, and Texas A&M got only 24. Combined, that’s 81% of what those teams usually score. Estimated points for Tennessee against Alabama: 19

Estimated score: Alabama 39.2, Tennessee 19

SPM Final Estimates

Combining the results from both perspectives, here’s what we get:

SPM Final estimated score: Alabama 46.8, Tennessee 21.7

SPM Final estimated spread: Alabama -25.1

Difference between the SPM and the Vegas opening spread: 5.1

That makes this yet another Category 1 game for the Statsy Preview Machine, meaning it’s not overly confident about its conclusion that Tennessee will cover because it is not far off from the Vegas spread.

Eyeball adjustments

Honestly, that looks about right to me. If there’s something to quibble about, it’s using Kentucky as a scoring defense comp from Tennessee’s perspective, as the Vols getting only 7 points in that game was (hopefully) an anomaly.

If you use all of Tennessee’s 2020 games as defensive comps instead, the offense is scoring 92% of what their opponents usually give up. If you remove the Kentucky game, that number is 106%. So, let’s call it 100%. Against Alabama, you’d expect the Vols to score what Alabama usually gives up, which is 28.8. That would make the score from Tennessee’s perspective Tennessee 28.8, Alabama 54.3, and that would change the final calculation to Alabama 46.8, Tennessee 23.9, a spread of 22.9.

Although that’s not much of a difference, I’ll go ahead and go with it and make my own prediction Alabama 47, Tennessee 24. Both I and the Statsy Preview Machine agree that Alabama will probably cover the 20- to 21-point spread this week.

Other predictions from other systems

Vegas had Alabama as a 20-point favorite when the lines opened this week. With an over/under of 64, that translates to something like Alabama 42, Tennessee 22.

Bill Connelly’s SP+ likes Alabama by 18.5 (Tide 37, Vols 19) and gives the Vols a mere 14% chance of winning. He’s using a 21-point spread and thus does not like the Tide to cover.

Bottom line

The GRT Statsy Preview Machine thinks Alabama will cover both the opening 20-point and the current 21-point spread. I do as well. But it’s close enough to not feel especially confident about it.

• Vegas: Alabama 42, Tennessee 22 (Tide -20)
• SP+: Alabama 37, Tennessee 19 (doesn’t cover)
• GRT’s SPM: Alabama 47, Tennessee 22 (covers)
• Me: Alabama 47, Tennessee 24 (covers)

Season results on Tennessee games

• Week 4: The SPM and I were both right (albeit overconfident) in saying the Vols would cover against South Carolina.
• Week 5: The SPM and I were both wrong in thinking the Vols would not cover and would win by only 6 points. They won by 23.
• Week 6: The SPM was right, but I was wrong. The SPM predicted Georgia to cover a 14.5-point spread with a score of Georgia 29, Tennessee 12, while my eyeball adjustment revised that to say the Bulldogs would not cover with a score of Georgia 24, Tennessee 20. Georgia covered with a score of Georgia 44, Tennessee 21.
• Week 7: Both the SPM and I were wrong in thinking the Vols would cover 6.5 points as a favorite over the Kentucky Wildcats. The Vols lost 34-7. Oof.

What do y’all think?

Against Vegas opening spreads last week, the GRT Statsy Preview Machine went 12-15 (44.44%) overall, 6-5 (54.55%) in Category 2, and 4-1 (80%) in Category 3. For the season, the SPM is now 69-73 (48.59%) in Category 1, 31-29 (51.67%) in Category 2, and 15-12 (55.56%) in Category 3.

The GRT SPM and SP+ had identical records this week, as SP+ also went 12-15 against the same Vegas opening spreads that we use. Both systems also had identical records using the spreads that SP+ uses: SP+ went 11-16 (40.74%) against its spreads for the second week in a row, as did the GRT machine. All of that said, SP+ is still way ahead of our machine for the season with a record of 82-60 (57.75%) overall (using our spreads). Using its own spreads, SP+ is 54% for the season.

Below are the GRT Statsy Preview Machine’s picks for Week 8 of the 2020 college football season. For what it’s worth, I am very wary of all of the Big 10 games, as our machine often isn’t especially good at the beginning of a season. As always, if you’re wondering why we do this or what I mean when I refer to “confidence” and when I place game predictions into different categories, check out this post. Also, keep in mind that spreads matter.

GRT SPM 2020 Week 8 Picks

Here’s what the machine is thinking this week:

There are 13 (!) Category 3 games that the SPM likes particularly well this week. Note, though, that there are some Big 10 games of which to be wary.

What are you favorite games this week?

The Vols host No. 2 Alabama at 3:30 on CBS this Saturday, and there is a full slate of great games on as well, as college football welcomes the Big 10 to the party this week.

First up is this week’s college football TV schedule curated just for Vols fans. A full and searchable college football TV schedule for this week is below the curated version.

Thursday, October 22, 2020

If you like Thursday night college football, this could be a fun one.

Friday, October 23, 2020

Hello, Big 10 football!

Gameday, October 24, 2020

The noon slot this Saturday features a Top 25 ACC matchup between No. 23 NC State and No. 14 North Carolina on ESPN, a first look at Ohio State on Fox, and future Vols opponent Auburn in action against Lane Kiffin’s Ole Miss team on the SEC Network.

The main feature for Vols fans this week kicks off at 3:30 on CBS when Tennessee hosts No. 2 Alabama. In case you or your DVR care, there’s also a Top 25 Big 12 matchup over on Fox between No. 17 Iowa State and No. 6 Oklahoma State and a couple of former Vols opponents in action on the SEC Network.

The evening slot features No. 18 Michigan vs. No. 21 Minnesota at 7:30 on ABC and also includes former Vols opponent South Carolina taking on LSU at 7:00 on ESPN.

Full searchable college football TV schedule

Here’s the entire 2020 college football TV schedule for this week:

Below is a look at Tennessee’s national stat rankings side-by-side with the counterpart rankings for the Alabama Crimson Tide.

When the Vols have the ball

Link to table

Where’s the opportunity?

Um, they appear to allow a lot of passing yards, but . . .

Where’s the danger?

. . . they pick off a lot of passes.

Gameplan for the Vols on offense

I would warn against falling prey to the promise of yards through the air, but honestly, what other options are there? It’s going to be even more difficult to run against the Tide. But the entire state of Tennessee is going to come unglued at the first interception. The Tennessee offense is just plain going to have to do a better job of finding something that works and doing that.

Here’s an idea: Pass on traditional running downs and run on traditional passing downs. It’s worth a try.

Vols on defense

Link to table

Where’s the opportunity?

These guys suck at 4th down. (Yes, that is sarcastic.) The Vols might be able to hold their own against the run on defense for a bit.

Where’s the danger?

The danger is here, there, and everywhere, and it’s big, fast, ferocious, and wearing the wrong colors.

Gameplan for the Vols on defense

Stop the run and hope for the best against the passing game. Get some turnovers, and when one comes your way, score.

Special teams

Link to table

Maybe there’s something there for the Vols in the punting and punt return game. If only we could get them to punt.

Turnovers and penalties

Link to table

Alabama’s not much better in the penalty department than Tennessee, so there’s an opportunity for some free, hidden yards there. Take them. And turnovers are villains, but they can be fickle. Let’s hope they switch jerseys this weekend.

Here’s our weekly color-coded look at how the Vols’ national rankings are trending in each of the official NCAA stat categories.

Offense

If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.

Currently doing well: 4th down conversion percentage, tackles for loss allowed

Took a hit this week: Passes had intercepted fell from No. 5 to No. 45, Red zone offense went from No. 25 to No. 44, and completion percentage fell from No. 27 to No. 36

Currently needs improvement: Deep breath . . . First downs offense, sacks allowed, team passing efficiency, passing offense, rushing offense, passing yards per completion, scoring offense, total offense, 3rd down conversion percentage

Improved this week: Rushing offense went from No. 66 to No. 57

Defense

If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.

Currently doing well: Defensive TDs, 4th down conversion percentage defense, total defense

Took a hit this week: Nothing major here, except that first downs defense went from No. 26 to No. 33, red zone defense went from No. 33 to No. 48, and 3rd down conversion percentage defense went from No. 46 to No. 54

Improved this week: Total defense went from No. 31 to No. 24, passing yards allowed went from No. 42 to No. 28

Currently needs improvement: 3rd down conversion percentage defense

Special Teams

If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.

Currently doing well: Punt returns, punt return defense, net punting, kickoff returns

Took a hit this week: Net punting went from No. 13 to No. 24

Improved this week: Nothing

Currently needs improvement: Kickoff return defense

Turnovers and Penalties

If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.

Currently doing well: Fumbles recovered

Took a hit this week: Turnovers lost (No. 13 to No. 51), turnover margin (No. 24 to No. 50), fumbles lost (No. 28 to No. 38), fewest penalties (No. 29 to No. 38), fewest penalty yards (No. 30 to No. 40)

Improved this week: Nothing, unless you want to count fumbles recovered going from No. 14 to No. 9

Appears to need improvement: Turnovers are not yet in the bottom third, but they are trending HARD in that direction.