The math gets really easy at this point, and you don’t need a machine to tell you that you expect only one more win this football season — at the most. But is your mind thinking exactly one more win, or a little more or less than one more win? Let’s have a quick look and register our expectations as a community with the GRT Expected Win Total Machine.
Statsy Preview Machine Current Predictions for the Remainder of the season
| Opponent | Preseason | W7 | W8 | W9 | W10 | W11 | W12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC | TN -21.9 | ||||||
| MO | TN -10.1 | ||||||
| GA | GA -26.2 | ||||||
| KY | KY -.7 | ||||||
| AL | AL -27.9 | AL -25.1 | |||||
| AR | TN -14.1 | AR -.2 | AR -4.1 | TN -.5 | |||
| AUB | AUB -9.6 | AUB -4.8 | AUB -6.9 | AUB -18.7 | AUB -15.7 | AUB -21.9 | |
| VAN | TN -9.4 | TN -21 | TN -21.2 | TN -21 | TN -24 | TN -18.7 | TN -16.3 |
| FL | FL -22.8 | FL -13.6 | FL -14.4 | FL -21.8 | FL -24.9 | FL -30.8 | FL -33.7 |
| TAMU | TAMU -6.4 | TN -1 | TAMU -3.7 | TAMU -9.7 | TAMU -29.8 | TAMU -27.2 | TAMU -29.2 |
Yep. One win.
My assessment
My expected win total for this season is 2.8.
Here’s how I’ve tracked this season:
- Preseason: 5.4
- After beating South Carolina: 5.8
- After beating Missouri: No analysis, but would have gone up
- After the loss to Georgia: 5.45
- After the loss to Kentucky: 4.3
- After the loss to Alabama: 4.25
- After the bye week: 4.0
- After the loss to Arkansas: 2.95
- After the A&M postponement bye: 2.95
Details: I kept everything where it was last week: Florida at 5%, Texas A&M at 15%, and Vanderbilt at 60%.
Here’s a visual:
Tennessee Volunteers currently
Current record: 2-5, 5th in the SEC East
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
| Sat, Sep 26 | @ South Carolina | W | 31-27 |
| Sat, Oct 3 | vs Missouri | W | 35-12 |
| Sat, Oct 10 | @ 3 Georgia | L | 44-21 |
| Sat, Oct 17 | vs Kentucky | L | 34-7 |
| Sat, Oct 24 | vs 2 Alabama | L | 48-17 |
| Sat, Nov 7 | @ Arkansas | L | 24-13 |
| Sat, Nov 21 | @ 23 Auburn | L | 30-17 |
| Sat, Dec 5 | vs 6 Florida | ||
| Sat, Dec 12 | vs 5 Texas A&M | ||
| Sat, Dec 19 | @ Vanderbilt (??) |
The Auburn game was about what I expected result-wise, but I thought the team actually played better (except for the mistakes). If they can quit making mistakes, I feel better about them. But can they? And how much would it even matter against Florida and Texas A&M? I’m giving them a slight bump.
The Vols’ future opponents
Vanderbilt Commodores
Current record: 0-7, 7th in the SEC East
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
| Sat, Sep 26 | @ 10 Texas A&M | L | 17-12 |
| Sat, Oct 3 | vs 20 LSU | L | 41-7 |
| Sat, Oct 10 | vs South Carolina | L | 41-7 |
| Sat, Oct 31 | vs Ole Miss | L | 54-21 |
| Sat, Nov 7 | @ Mississippi State | L | 24-17 |
| Sat, Nov 14 | @ Kentucky | L | 38-35 |
| Sat, Nov 21 | vs 6 Florida | L | 38-17 |
| Sat, Nov 28 | @ Missouri | L | 41-0 |
| Sat, Dec 5 | @ 9 Georgia | ||
| Sat, Dec 12 | ??? |
You probably can’t tell from that score, but Vandy hung with Florida pretty good for much of the game. But really only enough to offset my slight bump for the Vols, so I’m keeping this game at 60%.
Florida Gators
Current record: 6-1, 1st in the SEC East
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
| Sat, Sep 26 | @ Ole Miss | W | 51-35 |
| Sat, Oct 3 | vs South Carolina | W | 38-24 |
| Sat, Oct 10 | @ 21 Texas A&M | L | 41-38 |
| Sat, Oct 31 | Missouri | W | 41-17 |
| Sat, Nov 7 | vs 5 Georgia | W | 44-28 |
| Sat, Nov 14 | vs Arkansas | W | 63-35 |
| Sat, Nov 21 | @ Vanderbilt | W | 38-17 |
| Sat, Nov 28 | vs Kentucky | W | 34-10 |
| Sat, Dec 5 | @ Tennessee | ||
| Sat, Dec 12 | vs LSU |
See above. The Gators stuggled a bit against Vanderbilt, but they won’t do that against Tennessee. It’s some universal law or something. I’m keeping this one at 5%.
Texas A&M
Current record: 5-1, 2nd in the SEC West
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
| Sat, Sep 26 | vs Vanderbilt | W | 17-12 |
| Sat, Oct 3 | @ 2 Alabama | L | 52-24 |
| Sat, Oct 10 | vs 4 Florida | W | 41-38 |
| Sat, Oct 17 | @ Mississippi State | W | 28-14 |
| Sat, Oct 31 | vs Arkansas | W | 42-31 |
| Sat, Nov 7 | @ South Carolina | W | 48-3 |
| Sat, Nov 21 | vs Ole Miss | Postponed | |
| Sat, Nov 28 | vs LSU | W | 20-7 |
| Sat, Dec 5 | @ 22 Auburn | ||
| Sat, Dec 12 | @ Tennessee |
These guys haven’t played a game since November 7, but their only loss is to Alabama, and all they have left is LSU, Auburn, us, and maybe Ole Miss if they can get it rescheduled. They’re a good team with a favorable schedule, and I’m keeping this one at 15%.
The Vols’ past opponents
South Carolina Gamecocks
Current record: 2-6, 6th in the SEC East
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
| Sat, Sep 26 | vs 16 Tennessee | L | 31-27 |
| Sat, Oct 3 | @ 3 Florida | L | 38-24 |
| Sat, Oct 10 | @ Vanderbilt | W | 41-7 |
| Sat, Oct 17 | vs Auburn | W | 30-22 |
| Sat, Oct 24 | @ LSU | L | 52-24 |
| Sat, Nov 7 | vs 7 Texas A&M | L | 48-3 |
| Sat, Nov 14 | @ Ole Miss | L | 59-42 |
| Sat, Nov 21 | vs Missouri | L | 17-10 |
| Sat, Nov 28 | vs 9 Georgia | L | 45-16 |
| Sat, Dec 5 | @ Kentucky |
Missouri Tigers
Current record: 3-3, 3rd in the SEC East
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
| Sat, Sep 26 | vs 2 Alabama | L | 38-19 |
| Sat, Oct 3 | @ 21 Tennessee | L | 35-12 |
| Sat, Oct 10 | @ 17 LSU | W | 45-41 |
| Sat, Oct 17 | vs Vanderbilt | Postponed | |
| Sat, Oct 24 | vs Kentucky | W | 20-10 |
| Sat, Oct 31 | @ 10 Florida | L | 41-17 |
| Sat, Nov 14 | vs 5 Georgia | Postponed | |
| Sat, Nov 21 | @ South Carolina | W | 17-10 |
| Sat, Nov 28 | vs Vanderbilt | W | 41-0 |
| Sat, Dec 5 | vs Arkansas | ||
| Sat, Dec 12 |
Georgia
Current record: 5-2, 2nd in the SEC East
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
| Sat, Sep 26 | @ Arkansas | W | 37-10 |
| Sat, Oct 3 | vs 7 Auburn | W | 27-6 |
| Sat, Oct 10 | vs 14 Tennessee | W | 44-21 |
| Sat, Oct 17 | @ 2 Alabama | L | 41-24 |
| Sat, Oct 31 | @ Kentucky | W | 14-3 |
| Sat, Nov 7 | vs 8 Florida | L | 44-28 |
| Sat, Nov 14 | @ Missouri | Postponed | |
| Sat, Nov 21 | vs Mississippi State | W | 31-24 |
| Sat, Nov 28 | @ South Carolina | W | 45-16 |
| Sat, Dec 5 | vs Vanderbilt |
Hmm. Struggled against Mississippi State? Interesting.
Kentucky Wildcats
Current record: 3-5, 4th in the SEC East
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
| Sat, Sep 26 | @ 8 Auburn | L | 29-13 |
| Sat, Oct 3 | vs Ole Miss | L | 42-41 (OT) |
| Sat, Oct 10 | vs Mississippi State | W | 24-2 |
| Sat, Oct 17 | @ Tennessee | W | 34-7 |
| Sat, Oct 24 | @ Missouri | L | 20-10 |
| Sat, Oct 31 | vs 5 Georgia | L | 14-3 |
| Sat, Nov 14 | vs Vanderbilt | W | 38-35 |
| Sat, Nov 21 | @ 1 Alabama | L | 63-3 |
| Sat, Nov 28 | @ 6 Florida | L | 34-10 |
| Sat, Dec 5 | vs South Carolina |
Kentucky got absolutely rolled by the Tide this week.
Alabama Crimson Tide
Current record: 7-0, 1st in the SEC West
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
| Sat, Sep 26 | @ Missouri | W | 38-19 |
| Sat, Oct 3 | vs 13 Texas A&M | W | 52-24 |
| Sat, Oct 10 | @ Ole Miss | W | 63-48 |
| Sat, Oct 17 | vs 3 Georgia | W | 41-24 |
| Sat, Oct 24 | @ Tennessee | W | 48-17 |
| Sat, Oct 31 | vs Mississippi State | W | 41-0 |
| Sat, Nov 14 | @ LSU | Postponed | |
| Sat, Nov 21 | vs Kentucky | W | 63-3 |
| Sat, Nov 28 | vs 22 Auburn | W | 42-13 |
| Sat, Dec 5 | @ Arkansas |
See Kentucky above. Looking like they’re going to roll right into another championship.
Arkansas Razorbacks
Current record: 3-5, 6th in the SEC West
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
| Sat, Sep 26 | vs 4 Georgia | L | 37-10 |
| Sat, Oct 3 | @ 16 Mississippi State | W | 21-14 |
| Sat, Oct 10 | @ 13 Auburn | L | 30-28 |
| Sat, Oct 17 | vs Ole Miss | W | 33-21 |
| Sat, Oct 31 | @ 8 Texas A&M | L | 42-31 |
| Sat, Nov 7 | vs Tennessee | W | 24-13 |
| Sat, Nov 14 | @ 6 Florida | L | 63-35 |
| Sat, Nov 21 | vs LSU | L | 27-24 |
| Sat, Dec 5 | @ Missouri |
The Hogs almost got LSU this week, but they didn’t, and some of the shine is fading.
Auburn Tigers
Current record: 5-2, 3rd in the SEC West
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
| Sat, Sep 26 | vs 23 Kentucky | W | 29-13 |
| Sat, Oct 3 | @ 4 Georgia | L | 27-6 |
| Sat, Oct 10 | vs Arkansas | W | 30-28 |
| Sat, Oct 17 | @ South Carolina | L | 30-22 |
| Sat, Oct 24 | @ Ole Miss | W | 35-28 |
| Sat, Oct 31 | vs LSU | W | 48-11 |
| Sat, Nov 21 | vs Tennessee | W | 30-17 |
| Sat, Nov 28 | @ 1 Alabama | L | 42-13 |
| Sat, Dec 5 | vs 5 Texas A&M | ||
| Sat, Dec 12 | @ Mississippi State |
Don’t forget to submit your own ballot to the GRT Win Total Machine.