Gameday on Rocky Top

Tennessee opened as a 2.5-point underdog to the Kentucky Wildcats this week, and since then it’s moved to Vols -1. So . . . will the Vols cover against Kentucky? Here’s what the GRT Statsy Preview Machine has to say and whether I think it’s right this week.

The SPM’s performance so far in 2019

The SPM rebounded this week with its second-best week of the season after a sub-50% Week 9. For the past five weeks, it’s done this: 56.52%, 55.10%, 63.93%, 45.45%, and 63.04%. The breakdown this week: 29-17 (63.04%), which is for all games. When the difference between the SPM spread and the Vegas spread was 9 or more (the “confidence threshold”), the SPM was 10-4 (71.43%), and when the difference was between 9 and 14 (the “confidence range”), the SPM was 8-3 (72.73%).

For the season, the SPM is now 252-234 (51.85%) overall, 109-84 (56.48%) over the confidence threshold, and 63-35 (64.29%) in the confidence range.

For the fourth week in a row, the SPM got the Tennessee game wrong, although we knew not to trust it. The SPM isn’t the only system whiffing on the Vols, though. As Will has pointed out several times in several places, even Vegas has been really wrong on the Tennessee all season long.

So what does the SPM have to say about the Tennessee-Kentucky game this week?

Vols-Wildcats

From the perspective of Tennessee

Tennessee’s points:

• Tennessee scoring offense for the season: 24.7
• Kentucky scoring defense for the season: 21.3

The Kentucky scoring defense is most similar to the following prior Tennessee opponent(s) (FBS only):

• UAB 17.5
• South Carolina 25

Tennessee scored 30 points against UAB and 41 points against South Carolina. That’s 167% of what those teams usually give up.

The SPM still doesn’t know who UAB really is, so I would normally be inclined to ignore the Blazers as a comp, but the South Carolina number by itself pretty much gives the same result. So . . . the SPM estimates 35.5 points for Tennessee against Kentucky.

Kentucky’s points:

• Tennessee scoring defense for the season: 24.1
• Kentucky scoring offense for the season: 21.3

The Kentucky scoring offense is most similar to the following prior Tennessee opponent(s):

• BYU 25.5
• UAB 27

UAB scored 7 on Tennessee and BYU scored 29. That’s 69% of what those teams usually score. Taken together, the SPM estimates 14.7 points for Kentucky against the Vols. This is probably low, as the SPM is still confused about who UAB really is.

Estimated score: Tennessee 35.5, Kentucky 14.7

From the perspective of Kentucky

Kentucky’s points:

• Kentucky scoring offense for the season: 21.3
• Tennessee scoring defense for the season: 24.1

The Tennessee scoring defense is most similar to the following prior Kentucky opponent(s) (FBS only):

• South Carolina 25
• Toledo 28

Kentucky scored 7 points against South Carolina and 38 against Toledo, which is 85% of what those teams usually give up. Thus, the SPM estimates 20.5 points for Kentucky against the Vols.

Tennessee’s points:

• Kentucky scoring defense for the season: 21.3
• Tennessee scoring offense for the season: 24.7

The Tennessee scoring offense is most similar to the following prior Kentucky opponent(s):

• Eastern Michigan 26.2
• Arkansas 22.7

Kentucky allowed 20 points to Arkansas and 17 to Eastern Michigan. That’s 76% of what those teams usually score, so the SPM estimates 18.8 points for Tennessee against Kentucky.

Estimated score: Kentucky 20.5, Tennessee 18.8

SPM Final Estimates

Throw it in, cook it up, take a peek:

SPM Final estimated score: Tennessee 27.1, Kentucky 17.6

SPM Final estimated spread: Tennessee -9.5

Difference between the SPM and the Vegas opening spread): 12

That spread difference of 12 is right in the sweet spot that would normally be in our favorite “confidence range.” But so far this season, the numbers have been outright defamatory when it comes to the Vols. So while the machine is confident, I remain skeptical both on the actual score estimate and even more so on the level of confidence it’s spitting out.

Eyeball adjustments

I’m mostly comfortable with the comps for the Vols points from their perspective. As I said, I wouldn’t trust UAB as a comp except that the South Carolina comp says the same thing. The SPM’s only giving the Vols 19 points from Kentucky’s perspective, but I trust the South Carolina comp more than Kentucky’s results against Arkansas and Eastern Michigan. Still, 35 points seems high, especially since there were two special teams scores against the Gamecocks, so I’m thinking more like 28.

I don’t like Kentucky’s points from Tennessee’s perspective, as the number resulting from the UAB comp (26%) is too low, but the number resulting from the BYU comp (114%) is too high. I like the comps from Kentucky’s perspective better, as they include common opponent South Carolina, so I’m going with 21 points for the Wildcats.

So, my eyeball-adjusted prediction is Tennessee 28, Kentucky 21. Yeah, I like the Vols to win outright and cover. Am I confident about this? Nope.

Other predictions from other systems

As I said before, the Vols opened as 2.5-point underdogs but are now one-point favorites. With an over/under of 41, that translates to something like Tennessee 21, Kentucky 20.

ESPN’s FPI gives the Vols a 42.8% chance of winning.

Bill Connelly’s SP+ likes the Vols 25-23, and gives them a 55% chance of winning. That’s picking the Vols to cover.

SP+ finished 25-21-1 (54%) last week and is still at 55% for the season.

As I said earlier, the SPM is now 252-234 (51.85%) overall for the season and 63-35 (64.29%) in the confidence range.

Bottom line

The SPM and I both like the Vols to win and cover against Kentucky this week.

What do y’all think?

The Tennessee Volunteers kick off against the Kentucky Wildcats at 7:30 p.m. this Saturday on the SEC Network, but that’s just the capper on what should be an awesome week of college football. The sparks come early and often as there are a handful of games each weeknight heading into the weekend. That’s when the thing catches fire, and it does so right at noon on Saturday and rages all the live long day.

Here’s when and where to find the games that matter most to Vols fans, along with some suggestions on how and why to watch them.

The list curated just for Vols fans is up first, but there’s a full schedule following that so you can curate your own if you like.

Wednesday, November 6, 2019

Thursday, November 7, 2019

Friday, November 8, 2019

Gameday, November 9, 2019

Hoo boy, this could be an awesome day of college football. We jump right into the fire with a Top 15 matchup of unbeatens No. 5 Penn State and No. 13 Minnesota in the noon slot. Go Gophers. That time slot also features future Vols opponent Vanderbilt against former Vols opponent No. 10 Florida, so check in on that when the Lions/Gophers action breaks and DVR it for scouting after the dust has settled.

The noon fire converts into a foundry at 3:30 when No. 1 LSU takes on No. 2 Alabama on CBS at 3:30. It may not be for all the marbles, but it’s for a bunch of them. If you’re interested and/or a multi-tasker, there’s another Top 20 matchup on at 4:00 on Fox featuring No. 18 Iowa and No. 16 Wisconsin. I’m the former but not the latter, so I didn’t include this on the recommended viewing list. Both of my eyes will be intensely focused on Tuscaloosa.

But pace yourself, my Big Orange friends, as there’s still TV to watch. At 7:00 on ESPN, future Vols opponent Missouri takes on former Vols opponent No. 6 Georgia. Watch this live, but only for a half hour. Then hit the record button and switch over to Tennessee-Kentucky at 7:30 on the SEC Network and hope the Vols take care of business against the Wildcats.

Enjoy!

Full searchable college football TV schedule

Below is a look at Tennessee’s national stat rankings side-by-side with the counterpart rankings for the Kentucky Wildcats. Bottom line for the Vols this week: Run the ball, stop the run, and all eyes on Lynn Bowden.

Details below.

When the Vols have the ball

Where’s the opportunity?

We might be okay on third downs? We might be able to run the ball? With Tennessee’s offense struggling, there’s not much to work with here. Fortunately, Kentucky’s not especially good defending the run or at intercepting passes, so while those things aren’t necessarily strengths for the Vols, at least it’s not weakness against strength in those categories. And the Vols offense isn’t bad on third downs and will be going against a Wildcats defense that is. Kind of.

Where’s the danger?

Where else? The Red Zone, and not just because the Vols are in the Bottom 30 there. Kentucky is nearly in the Top 30 at keeping folks knocking on the door out of the house. Also, they don’t allow many passing yards (and we don’t get many) and they’re tough on first downs (and we’re not.) Boo.

Gameplan for the Vols on offense

Hope that you can run the ball and then convert on third down.

Vols on defense

Where’s the opportunity?

Well, this is more like it, as there’s a whole lotta blood in Kentucky’s offensive stat rankings. Although the Vols defense isn’t yet elite at anything other than intercepting passes, it does appear to have advantages nearly across the board, and where it doesn’t, it’s nearly a push.

Tennessee should make things very difficult for a Kentucky offense really not accomplishing much through the air and should be able to turn all guns on the ground game.

Where’s the danger?

The run game. Kentucky’s putting up over 200 yards per game on the ground, ranking 32nd nationally and 5th in the SEC. Wide receiver/quarterback Lynn Bowden is leading the way with nearly 75 rushing yards per game, and he not only leads the conference in all-purpose yards, he’s 5th in the nation.

And he’s not alone. True running backs Asim Rose and Kavosiey Smoke are adding 64 and 43 yards per game to the total. If the Wildcats are going to have success, it’s likely going to come from some combination of those three.

The other danger is game-planning for a one-dimensional attack led by Bowden at QB only to have quarterback Sawyer Smith return from injury instead. Having to contend with Bowden out at receiver would double the dimension, stretch the field, and make more room for Rose and Smoke to operate in the running game. I think the Vols would still be alright against that offense, but that could prove to be more difficult.

Gameplan for the Vols on defense

If it’s Bowden at quarterback, turn all the cannons on him and whichever running back is in the game. If it’s Smith, fight on both fronts but still focus primarily on stopping the run first.

Special teams

Beware a field position battle with these guys, as punter Max Duffy is 2nd in the nation in net punting with an average of 48.8 yards. The team is first in the nation in net punting.

Also, when kicking off, Paxton Brooks better get it over Bowden’s head and into the end zone for a touchback. If Bowden’s receiving punts, the best play would probably be to kick it as deep as possible but definitely out of bounds.

Turnovers and penalties

Turnovers. They’re important.

After winning three of the last four games, how are the Vols’ statistical rankings trending now?

Offense

Currently doing well: Passing Yards per Completion

Needs attention: Total Offense, Passes Had Intercepted, Red Zone Offense, 4th Down Conversion Pct

Climbed out of the Bottom 30: Nothing

Fell out of the Top 30: Nothing

Climbed into the Top 30: Nothing

Fell into the Bottom 30: Nothing

I’m calling that “status quo.” Only minor movement, including in the categories we want to see improvement. Is it possible that UAB really does have a good defense, or are the Vols stuck in the mud? Tune in next week!

Defense

Currently doing well: Intercepting passes, 4th Down Conversion Pct Defense

Needs attention: Same as last week — First Downs Defense, 3rd Down Conversion Pct Defense, Tackles for Loss

Climbed out of the Bottom 30: Nothing in the Bottom 30 last week

Fell out of the Top 30: Nothing.

Climbed into the Top 30: 4th Down Conversion Pct Defense

Fell into the Bottom 30: Team Tackles for Loss

Don’t look now, but this team is elite at intercepting passes. Woo. The only real bad news here is the lack of improvement on first downs, third downs, and TFLs. UAB did max protect most of the night, though, so the TFL number isn’t exactly unexpected.

Special Teams

Currently doing well: Punt Returns (woo!), Kickoff Return Defense, Blocked Punts (woo!!), Blocked Kicks

Needs attention: Net Punting, Kickoff Returns, Punt Return Defense

Again with The Weirdness. On special teams, Tennessee’s extremely good at some things and not very good at all at others.

Turnovers and Penalties

Currently doing well: Turnovers Gained

Needs attention: Turnovers lost

On turnovers, the news isn’t terrible overall, but with the team intercepting passes like me at a candy store, a national Turnover Margin ranking of only 49th means something is equally as bad. See “Turnovers Lost” next to that “99.”

Penalties appeared to improve this week.

It’s easy, and perhaps now natural, to take a Tennessee performance like this against a group-of-five school and lament what it wasn’t. A hallmark of Tennessee’s post-2007 swoon is some combination of inability and unwillingness to dominate mid-majors. Starting with a four-point win over Northern Illinois and a loss to Wyoming in 2008, every single season has included a “meh” moment. Some calls are closer than others: UAB in 2010, Troy in 2012, South Alabama in 2013, UMass in 2017, and of course Georgia State in September. But these years also include plenty of scores like 24-0 over North Texas, 28-19 over Ohio, and 14-3 over Charlotte last year.

UAB was 6-1 and 16-3 over its last 19, but it was clear from the outset the 2019 Blazers were painfully short on competition. Tennessee’s defense dominated, included a record-tying performance from Bryce Thompson. Tennessee’s offense had their moments, but didn’t capitalize the way you wanted with such great field position. The red zone performance was more of the unfortunate same: five trips but only three touchdowns, leaving the Vols with only 14 touchdowns on 32 trips this season, 126th nationally in red zone touchdown percentage. (Stats via SportSource Analytics)

That remains Tennessee’s greatest statistical weakness, and an important one in these last three games. The decision to play Jarrett Guarantano most of the night, even with a surgically-repaired non-throwing hand, resurfaced some of our anxiety at quarterback after a brief spark from Brian Maurer and, truly, one of the best passing performances of the decade from Guarantano and J.T. Shrout just last week. Last night’s performance makes last week look even better, but mixes in old fears with new hopes.

But viewed through the lens of the entire season, Tennessee is still moving hard and fast in the right direction. In that long list of mid-major disappointments, you get lines like -22.5 in a 14-3 win over Charlotte, -28 in a 17-13 win over UMass, -27 in a 28-19 win over Ohio, etc.

Last night, due both to Tennessee’s start and UAB’s consistency, the Vols were only -13.5, and won by 23. The Vols have now covered the spread four weeks in a row for the first time since 2010, and just the 10th time in the last 35 years (closing lines via covers.com). Tennessee made it five weeks in a row at the end of the 2010 regular season thanks to Tyler Bray, who helped the Vols cover in defeat at South Carolina, then went 4-0 straight up and against Vegas in November. Before that, the last time Tennessee covered five straight weeks: the first five games of 1998.

Vegas, like the rest of us, hasn’t had a good feel for Tennessee all year. The Vols were overvalued by 62.5 points in their first four FBS games, and have now been undervalued by 61 points in the last four games. It’s a tangible sign of an actual turnaround. But the Vols have to get this thing to six wins to still call it that in the off-season.

Tennessee was 4-5 headed into this stretch last season, but got what felt like a revelation in the 24-7 win over #12 Kentucky. And then it turned out the prophets were false.

This time, there will be no revelations unless Missouri creates one first: Kentucky is 4-4, Missouri 5-3 and set to face Georgia and Florida back-to-back, and Vanderbilt is 2-6. The journey ventured through the upside-down, but the end result we wanted in preseason – rise above the SEC East’s second tier, close the gap on your biggest rivals – is here for the taking. The turnaround narrative – and its chance to last us all off-season, and spend eight months thinking about what will be instead of what could’ve been – is alive. Whether the Vols cover or not, play Guarantano or not, or any number of the uncertainties that have defined this season, the Vols need two wins in three games. Three in three, and I still believe the Vols can be in line for a much nicer bowl opportunity than we thought even in preseason.

Hope lives, even if we saw some glimpses of what tried to take it away against UAB. The Vols still played better than expected all things considered, and by Vegas’ standards have done so more consistently now than in nine years. The margins remain small and the questions many, but for the last month Tennessee has found the right answer again and again. Hope lives. It should probably hang on tight.

Go Vols.