SPM picks: Championship Week

The SPM was barely up over .500 last week, which is honestly pretty good for Rivalry Week, a notoriously difficult week to predict. Last week, the SPM went 33-31(51.56%) overall, 11-8 (57.89%) over the confidence threshold, and 10-4 (71.43%) on its favorites. (If you’re wondering whether those favorites numbers are different from those in this post, it’s because the numbers above compare to SP+ and therefore use the same spreads that SP+ uses, while the favorites that were posted last week were posted early and therefore used Vegas opening spreads. The SPM is trying to catch SP+, so when possible, we compare to the same spreads.)

For the season, the SPM is now 359-344 (51.07%) overall, 147-114 (56.32%) over the confidence threshold, and 90-52 (63.38%) for the favorites.

SP+ had a difficult time last week, going only 26-38 (41%) overall. One bad week doesn’t undo a terrific season, though, as it’s still sitting pretty at 54% over the entire season.

SPM favorite picks this week

There’s only a handful of games this week, and the SPM only likes two of them: (these are based on the same spreads SP+ is using):

What do y’all think?

Vols take care of business against Florida A&M, 72-43

Yesterday’s four-factors preview of the Tennessee-Florida A&M game suggested the following:

  1. Tennessee should both shoot well and keep A&M from shooting well.
  2. The game could provide the Vols an opportunity to improve their turnover numbers.
  3. Tennessee had huge advantages rebounding the ball on both sides of the court.
  4. The Vols should be able to get to the foul line a bit more than usual, and the Rattlers should get there no more than what is normal for them.

The score prediction (from KenPom) was Tennessee 79, Florida A&M 50. Vols by 29.

So, how’d they do?

  1. The Vols went 24-55 for 43.6% while holding the Rattlers to 16-45 for 35.6%. The team was cold from three, though, hitting only 3-16 (18.8%). That has to get better.
  2. Tennessee turned the ball over 15 times to A&M’s 20.
  3. The rebounding advantages showed up. Overall, it was 43-25, Vols. Tennessee had 27 defensive rebounds to FAMU’s 20 and 16 offensive rebounds to FAMU’s 5.
  4. Tennessee got to the foul line 28 times (and hit 21 of them). The Rattlers got there 16 times and hit 9 of them.

The score was 72-43, Vols by 29.

John Fulkerson led the way with 15 points, but five different players hit double figures, and Olivier Nkamhoua had a double-double with 11 points and 13 rebounds. Jordan Bowden struggled, scoring only 3 points and going only 1-7.

With that, the team extended its home winning streak to 31, the longest active home streak in Division I. Rick Barnes will be going for win number 700 when Memphis comes to town on December 14.

The Portal, the 25-Limit, and the Case for “Oversigning”

All season long, Coach Jeremy Pruitt lamented the fact that the Vols were well below the 85-scholarship limit.  Between preseason injuries, inseason departures, and redshirts, at times the Vols were operating with below even 70 scholarship players.  What he didn’t say was that the NCAA’s relatively recent restriction on enrolling more than 25 players in a given class makes it incredibly difficult to catch back up to that number even over time, putting programs who started well below 85 scholarships at an very large competitive disadvantage.  With the news earlier this week that two redshirt senior-to-be OL Ryan Johnson and Marcus Tatum are entering the transfer portal, the scholarship situation facing Tennessee came into even more focus.  It wasn’t that long ago that guys like them would make a leap in their final season, especially on the OL – how many Fulmer teams were built around OL who had stuck around, paid their dues, and were given a chance in their final season?  As it’s become so easy for players to transfer, especially for young men looking who have graduated and are simply for more playing time in their final year of eligibility like Johnson and Tatum, it’s a reasonable question to ask: How can anyone actually catch up?

In our look at Edge Rushers earlier in the week, we noted that the Vols have around 7 spots remaining in the class, but caveated that statement with the following question: “Will the Vols try and greyshirt someone like Darrion Williamson (ACL injury) or Will Albright to fit another player into the class?  Does Melvin McBride’s medical retirement give the Vols room to enroll 26 in this class?  Both are questions that the answers to will determine how many more spots there actually are.”  It should also be noted that Tennessee commitments WR Jimmy Calloway and OLB Jimari Butler are taking visits elsewhere, and Calloway particularly looks like a potential flight risk, so even the current number of 18 commitments (and therefore 7 spots) is a little tentative.

Looking at those specific situations above a little further, one can see how they each make sense:

*Williamson suffered an ACL injury in the fall.  Before even getting to the fact that he’s a relatively raw prospect to begin with, the injury itself makes it incredibly unlikely that he can meaningfully contribute in 2020 if he can physically get on the field at all.  Why start his eligibility clock now?  Instead, let him enroll in January 2021 and have his five years to play four start with the 2021 season.  That’s a win-win for both parties

*Albright is a Longsnapper, and as Longsnappers go he’s a great prospect as evidenced by his spot on the All-American Bowl roster.  Forgetting any argument about whether a program should use one of its precious 25 scholarships at that position (we’re neither for nor against, per se), the Vols will lose a steady senior in Riley Lovingood after the season and need someone to replace him immediately.  Is that something a freshman can do?  Again, not being knowledgeable enough about the intricacies of the position it’s tough to say, but what we do know is that Tennessee’s current roster lists two other LS’s – RS Senior-to be Jake Yelich (rated as a five-star LS by Chris Sailer Kicking/Rubio Long Snapping coming out of high school) and RS Sophomore-to be Matthew Salansky.  So Tennessee does have players who’ve been in the program that could potentially step in at least for 2020.  That would allow Albright to greyshirt and like Williamson start his 5-to-play-4 in 2021

*When it comes to McBride’s 2019 initial counter, there is just so much gray area here.  Further to the point about counters from 2019, however, Tennessee was by all accounts all set to sign longtime commitment Anthony Harris.  He would have had to have had a spot, and one would think that the fact that he did not enroll would mean that spot is now available.  So what Tennessee can roll over from 2019 is incredibly opaque

Again, all of this is speculation.  It’s likely no one outside of Pruitt and his compliance team knows the exact situation.  What we do know is that the existing 18 commitments collectively represent a large step forward in terms of depth and talent across the board for the program.  Even the most ardent “NegaVol” would be hard-pressed to find a commitment that doesn’t look like a really good prospect or, more importantly, a position group that doesn’t clearly look like it’s being improved.  There is a reason that despite having only those 18 commitments the class is ranked #20 nationally, with a clear path to being at worst in the Top 15 and even a “If things break perfectly” path to inside the Top 10.

What’s left for the staff to accomplish is filling as many needs as possible while leaving themselves wiggle room to go the Best Player Available route if necessary/possible.  How they plan on doing that beyond simply building as big of a board of top-shelf realistic options (which they have done and continue to do during the contact period) remains to be seen.  TE Darnell Washington has a spot, of that we are sure.  Do they take both ILBs Vai Kaho and Desmond Tisdol?  What would that, and the potential addition of RB Jabari Small, do for Len’neth Whitehead?  How many of DL Tyler Baron, Octavius Oxendine, Omari Thomas, Reginald Perry, and Nazir Stackhouse would they take if they could take ALL of them? What about the aforementioned Edge Rushers Morven Joseph and Khari Coleman, a group they’ve added former Ole Miss commitment and December 13th official visitor Jaqwondis Burns to all the while according to Volquest still pursuing former commitment BJ Ojulari?  How many Offensive Playmakers can they take, with QB/WR Jimmy Holiday along with Small, WR Ramon Henderson, and RB Zaquandre White – the latter three December 13th official visitors – firmly on the board and even WRs Rakim Jarrett and Thaiu Jones-Bell at least on the periphery?  Heck, even JUCO DB Emmanuel Appiah is scheduled to OV December 13th, too, and he’s a very promising prospect who also happens to be an EE.  Again, there are still needs across the roster, so it wouldn’t be unreasonable for Pruitt and his staff to just rank their board and go from there, positions be damned. 

Ultimately what we’re advocating is for Pruitt to use any means necessary to sign *as many of the above prospects as possible*.  Greenshirts, Greyshirts, Redshirts, Blueshirts (h/t: Dr. Seuss). Backcounting, frontloading, anything in between.  Even, frankly, borrowing from 2021.  Because right now, despite the strong classes of 2018 and 2019 and the incredible development of the players from prior classes that Pruitt and his staff have done, the program simply needs better talent and more of it.  And with the transfer portal changing the game and no other recourse to catch up scholarship-wise, it would behoove Tennessee to take advantage of as many loopholes and avenues as possible to replenish the roster.  They’ve done the work to put themselves in position to land – in a vacuum – all of the players above.  Now they should do whatever it takes to sign as many of them as they can.

Tennessee-Florida A&M four-factors preview: TCB

Here’s a look at the four factors numbers for Tennessee’s game tonight against Florida A&M. The conclusions are up front, and the details follow:

Summary and Score Prediction

The goals for the Vols:

  1. Make the most of their shooting advantages on both sides of the court.
  2. Make the most of their rebounding advantages on both sides of the court.
  3. Be aggressive and get to the foul line.
  4. Take care of business.

Prediction: Vols 79, A&M 50

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

  • Tennessee 51.2 (No. 110)
  • Florida A&M 39.3 (No. 347)

Prior opponents:

UNC Asheville54.341
VCU51117
Florida St.51118
Washington50.3133
Chattanooga48.5188
Murray St.48.1207
Alabama St.42.5327

Conclusion: To Tennessee, Florida A&M is most like Alabama State when it comes to Effective FG%.

Turnover %

  • Tennessee 20.1 (No. 201)
  • Florida A&M 22 (No. 296)

Prior opponents:

Chattanooga18.9135
Florida St.19.4164
VCU19.9190
Washington20.4216
Murray St.20.4218
UNC Asheville20.7232
Alabama St.24.3333

Conclusion: Again, A&M basically looks like Alabama State from a Turnover % perspective.

Offensive Rebound %

  • Tennessee 30.5 (No. 115)
  • Florida A&M 27.5 (No. 196)

Prior opponents:

Florida St.32.273
UNC Asheville31.489
Tennessee30.5115
VCU30126
Washington27.5198
Murray St.27.2201
Chattanooga25.5234
Alabama St.18.9343

Conclusion: Huh. These guys are rebounding as well as Washington. (But that’s not exactly as good as you might think it should be.)

Free Throw Rate

  • Tennessee 38.5 (No. 69)
  • Florida A&M 36.8 (No. 88)

Prior opponents:

Murray St.4225
Florida St.39.354
Washington3961
VCU36.889
UNC Asheville36.690
Alabama St.34125
Chattanooga24.7304

Conclusion: These guys are most like VCU and UNC Asheville when it comes to free throws.

Those are the straight-up comparisons of the teams’ respective averages in the four factors, but what about the fact that those numbers are impacted in any given game by the opponent?

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s EFG% is 51.2 (No. 110), and it will be going up against a defense that is 53.9 (No. 297).

When Florida A&M has the ball

A&M’s EFG% is 39.3 (No. 347), while Tennessee’s shooting defense is 41.4 (No. 12). Tennessee should make it pretty difficult for the Rattlers.

Conclusions

Expect Tennessee to both shoot well and make it really difficult for A&M to shoot well.

Turnover %

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee is struggling with a turnover % of 20.1 (No. 201). A&M’s defensive counterpart to this stat is 20.9 (No. 118).

When A&M has the ball

FAMU’s turnover % is 22 (No. 296), while’s Tennessee’s ability to force turnovers is 18.8 (No. 199).

Conclusions

Tennessee needs to get its turnovers straightened out, and the Rattlers may provide an opportunity to make up some ground there.

Offensive Rebounding %

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s OR% is 30.5 (No. 115), while A&M’s defense in that category is 37.3 (No. 348).

When FAMU has the ball

The Rattlers’ OR% is 27.5 (No. 196), while the Vols’ defense in that category is 23.4 (No. 41).

Conclusions

The Vols have a huge advantage in rebounding on both sides of the court.

Free Throw Rate

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s FT Rate is 38.5 (No. 69), while Florida A&M’s defense against that is 38.2 (No. 285).

When A&M has the ball

The Rattlers’ FT Rate is 36.8 (No. 88), while Tennessee’s defense against that is 25.9 (No. 72).

Conclusions

Tennessee is really good at getting to the foul line, and A&M is pretty generous in that regard. The other side is pretty much even, so although the Rattlers are used to getting to the foul line themselves, the Vols are pretty good at defending without fouling.

Summary and Score Prediction

The Vols appear to have big advantages in shooting, rebounding, and getting to the foul line, all of which should make this a fairly easy game for the good guys tonight.

The goals for the Vols:

  1. Make the most of their shooting advantages on both sides of the court.
  2. Make the most of their rebounding advantages on both sides of the court.
  3. Be aggressive and get to the foul line.
  4. Take care of business.

KenPom gives Tennessee a 99% chance of winning and puts the score at Tennessee 79, Florida A&M 50. The current line is Tennessee -30.

Go Vols.

Tennessee Bowl Projections: Playoff Poll Surprises and Simplifies

Here’s what we think after the release of the final College Football Playoff poll before the real thing on Sunday:

https://twitter.com/CFBPlayoff/status/1202018158338555906

Let’s start with the simple: if Ohio State, LSU, and Clemson win, they’re in. For Tennessee’s purposes, it may not matter if the committee chooses Utah or Oklahoma if they both win. But because Baylor is ranked six spots ahead of Oregon, it’s better for the Vols if Oklahoma earns the #4 spot.

That scenario would give you the top three and the Sooners in the playoff. The Sugar Bowl would take Georgia (assuming the Dawgs don’t drop below a Florida team they beat) and Baylor.

The Rose Bowl would take Utah and either Wisconsin or Penn State. Assuming a team that does not play this week will not jump another team that does not play this week, Florida has the advantage for the Orange Bowl by being ranked ahead of Penn State, and would probably play Virginia (if there are zero non-Clemson, non-Notre Dame ACC teams ranked in the final playoff poll, the Orange Bowl gets to pick itself, but Virginia is the most deserving no matter what happens against the Tigers).

From there, the Cotton Bowl will take the next-highest-ranked team. And this is where everything will get decided as far as Tennessee and the Outback Bowl: is that next-highest-ranked team Wisconsin or Auburn? Or, if the committee takes Utah over Oklahoma, is it Wisconsin, Auburn, or Baylor?

If it’s the Tigers, the Tua-less Tide go to Orlando, and Tennessee’s path to the Outback Bowl is clear. If Wisconsin is ranked ahead of Auburn in the final poll (or Baylor if the committee puts Utah in the playoff), Alabama and Auburn should split the Citrus and Outback, sending the Vols back to the Jacksonville conversation.

Also, if it’s Wisconsin, the Big Ten bowl opponents cycle up, meaning you’re not going to catch anything better than Indiana or an ACC trade-off in the Gator Bowl. If you want to see the Vols level up, it looks like that can only happen in Tampa now.

So, in order of what would be most helpful for Tennessee:

  • Ohio State blows out #8 Wisconsin enough for them to fall behind #11 Auburn in the final poll
  • The committee takes Oklahoma for its final playoff spot
  • Or, the committee takes Utah, and Oklahoma blows out #7 Baylor enough for them to fall behind #11 Auburn in the final poll (an odd scenario probably requiring Utah to simultaneously blow out Oregon)

You get that, you should get Tampa. The Athletic reported earlier today that the Citrus Bowl was locked in on Michigan, meaning Minnesota is still the most likely opponent in the Outback Bowl.

Do the Vols Have the Room (or Need) for Another Edge Rusher?

With around* 7 spots remaining to fill in the 2020 class, Tennessee has set itself up with a nice board on both offense and defense, and its existing 18 commitments collectively represent a step forward in terms of depth and talent across the board for the program.  What’s left for the staff to accomplish is filling as many needs as possible while leaving themselves wiggle room to go the Best Player Available route if necessary/possible.  At the same time they’ll need to keep all of their existing commitments, with the main focus on WR Jimmy Calloway (UK, OU, UGA in contention) and OLB Jimari Butler (Nebraska). 

At the specific position of Edge Rusher (OLB in a 3-4, DE in a 4-3), the aforementioned Butler is Tennessee’s only current commitment.  Theoretically, especially with the upcoming departure of senior Darrell Taylor, the Vols could use another prospect at the position.  To that end, the Vols hosted Kansas commitment Khari Coleman and FSU commitment Morven Joseph this past weekend on official visits.  Tennessee has been involved with both players since the summer, having them on campus for camp and offering them scholarships around that time.  Coleman is a New Orleans native who had an incredibly productive season and at around 6’1-6’2 and 210-215 pounds uses his speed around the edge as his calling card.  Joseph is a bit more physically imposing at 6’3 and 215-220 pounds and is also a more well-known prospect than Coleman, having formerly been a Florida commitment before flipping to the Seminoles over the summer. 

While Coleman came out of the weekend calling Tennessee his leader, Joseph was a bit more muted in his post-visit interviews although seemingly still being pretty impressed.  At the same time, both will be taking other visits, with Coleman scheduled to see TCU and then Vanderbilt before the Early Signing Period begins December 18th and Joseph set to see the Gators this coming weekend.  Therefore, there is no reason to think that Tennessee can definitely land either or both of these players should the staff decide to push.  What’s perhaps more pertinent is whether or not Tennessee truly needs either of them in this class – assuming Butler is solid – unless it were as a Best Player Available with a final spot.  With the emergence of junior-to-be Kivon Bennett over the course of the season and the continued development of true freshmen Quarvaris Crouch and Roman Harrison – all three of whom had a sack in Saturday’s season finale – there is perhaps a less immediate need for the 2020 season.  The team will also return senior-to-be Deandre Johnson, a solid contributor and certainly a rotational SEC player, along with Butler.  Commitments Martavius French and Bryson Eason, both of whom have played all over the field for their Memphis Whitehaven High School team including as pass rushers, could also figure into that mix both immediately in 2020 and also into the future.  Finally, Knoxville Catholic’s Tyler Baron, thought at this point to be a heavy lean to Tennessee, has the potential to give the Vols some immediate help on the edge in 2020 even if his future position is likely more as a true DL as his body fills out.

Tennessee 100% wants to add Baron along with DL Omari Thomas and Octavius Oxendine, and the Vols are at worst co-leaders for each of the three. DL Reggie Perry took an official visit to Tennessee this weekend as well and apparently made a huge move, and the Vols even got Georgia DL commitment Nazir Stackhouse on campus unofficially – Pruitt and Ansley will be in with him today, likely to try and see how serious Stackhouse really is and try and secure an OV.  They want at least one more ILB, with Vai Kaho, Desmond Tisdol, and Len’neth Whitehead (not a RB) all very much in play.  There is also speculation that Coach Pruitt would like to sign another DB, and JUCO Emmanuel Appiah is scheduled to officially visit the December 13th weekend.  TE Darnell Washington will have a spot reserved for him until his signed LOI is announced by another school.  And at least from this writer’s perspective the Vols could absolutely use at least one more playmaker, with ATHs Jimmy Holiday and Ramon Henderson, WRs Dee Beckwith and Jaylon Barden, and RB Jabari Small and Zaquandre White all in the mix (not to mention longshots Thaiu Jones-Bell and Rakim Jarrett).   Obviously Tennessee wouldn’t win out for all of these prospects whether it had the room or not.  The Vols are battling programs like Georgia, Alabama, Auburn, Florida and Notre Dame for many of them, and some of them are committed elsewhere for now.  But the fact that Tennessee is in the mix with such a number of high quality prospects with such a relatively low number of spots gives one a sense for the kinds of decisions that Pruitt and his staff are going to have to make.

Both Coleman and Joseph are high-quality prospects in their own right and one could absolutely make the case that there is a real need for Tennessee to add another Edge Rusher in this class, especially in a vacuum.  However, although Pruitt has gotten the program into a much better spot than it was when he arrived (through both recruiting and development) there are still multiple needs across the roster.  And this position does have a good (if not great, where it needs to be) blend of depth and talent.  Therefore it won’t be a surprise to see the Vols go either way on this question, but the view here is that there are greater needs elsewhere and that if they do decide to push for one or both of them it will and should be as a Best Player Available with a final spot in the class.

*Will the Vols try and greyshirt someone like Darrion Williamson (injury) or Will Albright to fit another player into the class?  Does Melvin McBride’s medical retirement give the Vols room to enroll 26 in this class?  Both are questions that the answers to will determine how many more spots there actually are

Read: The word of the day is “Resilience”

If you read only one thing about the Vols today . . .

. . . make it this, from 247Sports:

Other Vols stuff worth reading today

  1. Tennessee Bowl Projections: 7-5, What’s Next? | Gameday on Rocky Top, via Gameday on Rocky Top
  2. Vols report card: Vanderbilt, via 247Sports
  3. How and when Tennessee will learn its bowl assignment, via 247Sports
  4. Turner’s Buzzer-Beating Bomb Lifts Vols Past VCU, 72-69 – University of Tennessee Athletics, via UTSports

Behind the paywalls

  • Tennessee takeaways: What we learned from the Vols’ fifth consecutive win – The Athletic, via The Athletic
  • Ten Class of 2020 targets who could flip to Tennessee, via 247Sports
  • The 2010s: The players, moments and games that defined Tennessee football – The Athletic, via The Athletic

Tennessee Bowl Projections: 7-5, What’s Next?

At the start of fall camp, our GRT Expected Win Total Machine came back at an average of 6.9 wins. We ran it again the week leading up to Georgia State, and August optimism drove it north to 7.2.

And then it hung out in the twos and threes for a while.

But here, at the end, Tennessee may have gotten the most bang for their 7-5 buck: a 6-1 run, the only loss a could’ve-been at Bama, and lessons one might not have learned along any other way. Not all 7-5’s are created equal; if you’re looking for the one that helps Tennessee most in 2020, this might be it.

But first, the final piece of 2019’s puzzle. And there’s a chance it too could be the one that helps the Vols most next season: January 1 in Florida should mean a shot at the most meaningful victory of the year.

The Straightforward Path & Four SEC Teams in the CFP/NY6

No drama, all chalk this week could lead us to something like this:

  • College Football Playoff: Ohio State, LSU, Clemson, Oklahoma/Utah
  • Sugar: Georgia vs Oklahoma/Baylor
  • Rose: Penn State vs Utah/Oregon
  • Orange: Florida vs Virginia
  • Cotton: Alabama vs Group of Five

(For more on automatic bids and the SEC selection process, see last week’s bowl projections)

Automatic bids leave few questions here. After the four playoff teams, only two at-large selections are available: the highest-ranked SEC/Big Ten team to go opposite an ACC school in Miami, and the highest-ranked remaining team to face the best Group of Five team in JerryWorld. If Penn State is ranked higher than Wisconsin in the final College Football Playoff poll, the Nittany Lions will go to the Rose Bowl and clear the path for both Florida and Alabama to play in the New Year’s Six.

If this happens, Auburn will go to the Citrus Bowl. From there, the SEC’s Group of Six will choose between Tennessee, Texas A&M, Kentucky, and Mississippi State.

Last week, the assumption was the Outback Bowl would take 7-5 Texas A&M with losses to Clemson, Alabama, Auburn, Georgia, and LSU. But the Aggies were non-competitive in a 50-7 loss, and have become popular in projections to stay home and play in the Texas Bowl. Remember: A&M played in the Gator Bowl last year. That performance against LSU makes them even less likely to return there in my opinion.

If, in fact, Tennessee is now more desirable than Texas A&M, the Aggies could go to Houston and clear a path to Tennessee in Tampa. The only way I can see the Vols in the Outback Bowl is if four SEC teams are in the CFP/NY6. Getting four there means the Big Ten gets just two, which we’ll assume to be Ohio State and Penn State. That scenario should then send Wisconsin to the Citrus Bowl, where they haven’t been since 2014. And that would make Minnesota the most likely opponent in the Outback Bowl: the Gophers have never played in Tampa, and simplifies what comes next with Iowa and Michigan available for the Holiday and Gator Bowls. Tennessee vs Minnesota (currently #15 in the AP poll) in the Outback Bowl is now the projection from both ESPN analysts.

What to watch here on Tuesday: how close are Penn State, Wisconsin, and Minnesota in the College Football Playoff poll? Does the committee reward Minnesota’s head-to-head win over Penn State the way the AP poll did not (PSU 12, Minnesota 15)? Is Wisconsin so far up the ladder that a competitive game with Ohio State could keep them in the New Year’s Six mix?

What if only three SEC teams make the CFP/NY6?

Let’s say the playoff committee really takes it out on Alabama and drops the Tide way down the list and out of New Year’s Six contention. If a Big Ten team earns an at-large bid to the Orange or Cotton, the quality of opponent other SEC teams would face will drop, and we’re all going back one in the pecking order without a fourth SEC team in the CFP/NY6.

In this scenario, let’s say Wisconsin plays a close game with Ohio State and stays ahead of Alabama in the final poll. The Badgers go to the Cotton Bowl, knocking the Tide back to the Citrus Bowl. That knocks Auburn to the Outback Bowl, and would in all likelihood send the Vols to Jacksonville. The Big Ten pecking order then goes like this: Minnesota to the Citrus Bowl, then a real conundrum for the Outback Bowl. The last three years Tampa had Iowa, Michigan, and Iowa. The Big Ten has written rules to push for five different teams in their second-tier bowls in six years. But the drop-off from Michigan and Iowa to everyone else is steep. If they just kept it straightforward, you’d have Michigan in the Outback Bowl, Iowa in the Holiday Bowl and Indiana in the Gator Bowl. This is the scenario 247 takes for Tennessee: Vols vs Hoosiers in Jacksonville. Jason Kirk at Banner Society still has the Vols in Charlotte for reasons that are unclear to me, but does make the ACC/Big Ten swap we discussed last week to send Indiana to the Music City Bowl to face Kentucky (win-win). This week Jason sends Florida State instead of Virginia Tech to the Gator Bowl, where he has them playing Western Kentucky. I cannot fathom the SEC sending the Vols to Charlotte but leaving Jacksonville void.

So, to recap:

  • If the SEC gets four teams in the CFP/NY6, the Vols would be a favorite for the Outback Bowl in Tampa, with #15 Minnesota the most likely opponent. This scenario likely depends on Texas A&M going to the Texas Bowl.
  • If the SEC gets three teams in the CFP/NY6, the Vols would be a favorite for the Gator Bowl in Jacksonville, with Indiana or an ACC #3 substitute like Florida State or Virginia Tech the most likely opponent.
  • On Tuesday, keep an eye on Penn State and Alabama in the College Football Playoff poll. I think you want Alabama still in range for the New Year’s Six, and Penn State in position to make the Rose Bowl over Minnesota and Wisconsin after they presumably lose to Ohio State.

More to come after Tuesday night.

Ltvol99 wins Week 14 of the 2019 GRT Pick ‘Em, PAVolFan remains in the lead overall

Congratulations to ltvol99, who finished first this week with a record of 18-2 and 205 confidence points.

Here are the full results for this week:

Rank Player W-L Points Tiebreaker
1 ltvol99 18-2 205 10-27
2 Jahiegel 18-2 203 11-31**
2 rsbrooks25 17-3 203 9-35
2 Sam 19-1 203 13-35
5 PAVolFan 17-3 202 17-34
6 trdlgmsr 18-2 201 3-28**
6 joeb_1 18-2 201 15-31
8 wedflatrock 17-3 200 10-27**
8 hounddog3 17-3 200 9-33
8 Anaconda 17-3 200 13-35
8 UTSeven 17-3 200 10-49
12 corn from a jar 18-2 199 17-28**
12 birdjam 17-3 199 10-45
14 daetilus 17-3 198 10-27**
14 C_hawkfan 18-2 198 14-31
16 GeorgeMonkey 17-3 197 14-35
17 keepontruckin 17-3 196 9-27**
17 memphispete 16-4 196 10-35
19 bluelite 17-3 195 7-35**
19 Joel @ GRT 17-3 195 10-33
19 jfarrar90 17-3 195 17-37
22 Rossboro 17-3 194 0-42**
22 Phonies 16-4 194 14-35
22 ChuckieTVol 16-4 194 10-45
25 boro wvvol 17-3 193 14-31**
25 mariettavol 18-2 193 15-38
25 Bulldog 85 16-4 193 13-42
28 ddayvolsfan 16-4 192 10-31**
28 LuckyGuess 16-4 192 14-31
30 mmmjtx 15-5 191 10-34**
30 DinnerJacket 15-5 191 10-38
32 Crusher 18-2 190 14-31**
32 TennRebel 16-4 190 17-31
32 Displaced_Vol_Fan 16-4 190 13-38
35 Hixson Vol1 17-3 189 17-33
36 alanmar 18-2 187 27-34
37 ctull 16-4 186 14-28**
37 Raven17 14-6 186 45-10
39 Neil Neisner 16-4 185 10-21**
39 Timbuktu126 16-4 185 0-12
41 claireb7tx 17-3 184 14-35
42 cnyvol 16-4 180 17-33**
42 Harley 15-5 180 17-41
44 vols95 13-7 178 17-35**
44 Wilk21 14-6 178 14-41
44 rollervol 17-3 178 34-13
47 TennVol95 in 3D! 15-5 175 17-45
48 doritoscowboy 14-6 173 0-0
49 ga26engr 16-4 171 12-27**
49 Hjohn 15-5 171 13-45
51 tbone 13-7 168 14-28
52 patmd 15-5 150 24-28
53 HUTCH 13-7 145 20-21
54 PensacolaVolFan 12-8 129 0-50
55 Will Shelton 0-20 128 0-0**
55 Knottfair 0-20 128 -
55 Aaron Birkholz 0-20 128 -
55 mmb61 0-20 128 -
55 UTVols18 0-20 128 -
55 Salty Seth 0-20 128 -
55 Teri28 0-20 128 -
55 tpi 0-20 128 -
55 Jayyyy 0-20 128 -
55 aaron217 0-20 128 -
55 If you ain’t first you’re 0-20 128 -
55 tallahasseevol 0-20 128 -
55 dgibbs 0-20 128 -
55 waltsspac 0-20 128 -
55 Willewillm 0-20 128 -
55 Orange Swarm 0-20 128 -
55 Dmorton 0-20 128 -
55 RockyPopPicks 0-20 128 -
55 VillaVol 0-20 128 -
55 Jrstep 0-20 128 -
55 ed75 0-20 128 -
55 jeremy.waldroop 0-20 128 -
55 rockytopinKy 0-20 128 -
55 OriginalVol1814 0-20 128 -
55 BristVol 0-20 128 -
55 orange_devil87 0-20 128 -
55 Orange On Orange 0-20 128 -
55 VFL49er 0-20 128 -
55 ddutcher 0-20 128 -
55 BZACHARY 0-20 128 -
55 Caban Greys 0-20 128 -
55 cactusvol 0-20 128 -
55 Techboy 0-20 128 -
55 JLPasour 0-20 128 -
55 waitwhereami 0-20 128 -

PAVolFan holds on to the season lead with a record of 211-69 and 2,415 confidence points. It’s a tight race, though, with several players within striking distance.

Will can correct me if I’m wrong about this, but I think next week will be the last week of the regular GRT Pick ‘Em Contest. We will start fresh with the bowls.

Rank Player W-L % Points
1 PAVolFan 211-69 75.36 2415
2 wedflatrock 208-72 74.29 2412
3 birdjam 208-72 74.29 2411
4 GeorgeMonkey 203-77 72.50 2396
5 corn from a jar 204-76 72.86 2392
6 memphispete 207-73 73.93 2381
7 LuckyGuess 200-80 71.43 2370
8 C_hawkfan 214-66 76.43 2355
9 joeb_1 198-82 70.71 2349
10 Hixson Vol1 208-72 74.29 2346
11 jfarrar90 201-79 71.79 2343
12 hounddog3 201-79 71.79 2336
13 Displaced_Vol_Fan 200-80 71.43 2335
14 Joel @ GRT 205-75 73.21 2331
15 UTSeven 193-87 68.93 2327
16 trdlgmsr 197-83 70.36 2319
17 cnyvol 203-77 72.50 2317
18 daetilus 196-84 70.00 2312
18 Anaconda 190-90 67.86 2312
20 ChuckieTVol 203-77 72.50 2305
21 boro wvvol 196-84 70.00 2301
22 Phonies 197-83 70.36 2299
23 Raven17 191-89 68.21 2288
24 alanmar 202-78 72.14 2287
25 TennRebel 194-86 69.29 2286
26 Bulldog 85 197-83 70.36 2285
27 Rossboro 194-86 69.29 2283
28 DinnerJacket 195-85 69.64 2276
29 mmmjtx 198-82 70.71 2275
30 keepontruckin 188-92 67.14 2264
31 Sam 199-81 71.07 2257
32 Harley 194-86 69.29 2252
33 Crusher 197-83 70.36 2239
34 ga26engr 198-82 70.71 2233
35 ltvol99 203-77 72.50 2228
36 Jahiegel 191-89 68.21 2222
37 claireb7tx 193-87 68.93 2216
38 ctull 184-96 65.71 2207
39 doritoscowboy 191-89 68.21 2191
40 rsbrooks25 199-81 71.07 2180
41 ddayvolsfan 194-86 69.29 2166
42 tbone 185-95 66.07 2161
43 rollervol 192-88 68.57 2145
44 TennVol95 in 3D! 181-99 64.64 2140
45 bluelite 183-97 65.36 2139
46 Jayyyy 158-122 56.43 2124
47 Wilk21 182-98 65.00 2122
48 Neil Neisner 177-103 63.21 2098
49 HUTCH 182-98 65.00 2092
50 Hjohn 177-103 63.21 2072
51 Orange On Orange 146-134 52.14 2053
52 mariettavol 155-125 55.36 2048
53 Timbuktu126 165-115 58.93 2025
54 patmd 182-98 65.00 2016
55 vols95 146-134 52.14 1997
56 waitwhereami 136-144 48.57 1995
57 Knottfair 132-148 47.14 1990
58 PensacolaVolFan 176-104 62.86 1981
59 dgibbs 136-144 48.57 1969
60 jeremy.waldroop 108-172 38.57 1887
61 VillaVol 103-177 36.79 1726
62 rockytopinKy 95-185 33.93 1721
63 Orange Swarm 85-195 30.36 1706
64 Will Shelton 52-228 18.57 1593
65 OriginalVol1814 56-224 20.00 1591
66 aaron217 63-217 22.50 1586
67 BZACHARY 74-206 26.43 1583
68 tpi 54-226 19.29 1528
69 RockyPopPicks 33-247 11.79 1521
70 Willewillm 25-255 8.93 1434
71 Jrstep 34-246 12.14 1428
72 BristVol 26-254 9.29 1409
73 Dmorton 27-253 9.64 1406
74 Caban Greys 13-267 4.64 1396
75 tallahasseevol 14-266 5.00 1386
76 If you ain�t first you�re 13-267 4.64 1384
76 JLPasour 14-266 5.00 1384
76 orange_devil87 15-265 5.36 1384
79 Aaron Birkholz 13-267 4.64 1375
80 ed75 13-267 4.64 1371
81 Salty Seth 12-268 4.29 1361
82 Techboy 11-269 3.93 1360
83 waltsspac 11-269 3.93 1357
84 cactusvol 12-268 4.29 1351
85 VFL49er 4-276 1.43 1300
86 Teri28 5-275 1.79 1253
87 ddutcher 0-280 0.00 1252
87 mmb61 0-280 0.00 1252
87 UTVols18 0-280 0.00 1252