Gameday on Rocky Top

(furiously deletes 700 words on the Music City Bowl)

Actually, let me say this: Nashville’s bowl runs a good show. I went in 2010 and really enjoyed it (until the end, of course). I think it’s good for the state to have the Music City Bowl do well. And there are seasons in rebuild mode when it really isn’t a bad destination for the Vols, like 2010.

That just wasn’t the case when the Gator Bowl was a realistic possibility, which it has been since Tennessee beat South Carolina, or a rightful one, which it has been since Tennessee finished a 6-1 run to end the regular season.

And now, after much deliberation and plenty of false starts:

Here’s what I wrote when it looked like Nashville:

The Music City Bowl is not as prestigious as the Gator Bowl, full stop. It may be more desirable to individual fans depending on where you live, it may pay a little more, and it may create a nice recruiting setup in the mid-state. And a bowl can change its own fate – see the Peach Bowl, once a sign of a disappointing season at UT, now a New Year’s Six bowl – and perhaps Nashville will earn that reputation. None of that changes the prestige of January vs December 30, or the fact that Nashville’s bowl is 21 years old and Jacksonville’s has been played since the end of World War II.

It looked like the Vols were just going to be on the wrong side of bad luck. There’s no argument for Kentucky as a more deserving or desirable option than Tennessee in a vacuum. But in 2019, circumstances appeared to be working for the Cats and against the Vols. The Gator Bowl took an ACC team three years in a row and was contractually obligated, whatever that’s worth, to take a Big Ten team. Because of the final College Football Playoff rankings, Indiana was the best available option. In any other year of the last six, Indiana and Kentucky play in Nashville. But with the Music City obligated to an ACC team on the other half of their deal with Jacksonville, and Louisville being a good fit there…we didn’t have to like Nashville, but it at least made sense.

The Vols also just missed the Outback Bowl by 10-3 Wisconsin staying at #8 in the final College Football Playoff poll and Penn State staying ahead of an Auburn team that beat Oregon and Alabama. If the New Year’s Six used the AP poll instead, #9 Auburn would be in the Cotton Bowl, Alabama in the Citrus Bowl, and the Vols in the Outback Bowl. Instead, we have three Big Ten teams in the New Year’s Six and the SEC’s teams going down a peg.

But the Vols didn’t fall any further than that, earning the January bid to Jacksonville at the 11th hour and 58th minute. And here’s something we can say with greater certainty now: even if the Vols beat Georgia State and BYU to open the year, they’re probably still playing Indiana in the Gator Bowl. Tennessee would be ranked, but still in the Group of Six and still less deserving than Auburn. You’d always prefer to be 9-3 than 7-5, but perhaps the Vols learned a few things along the way this season that will prove to be more valuable than a pair of early escapes would’ve revealed.

Also: now we’re in-between two scenarios. The Outback Bowl was desirable not just for its own prestige, but a shot at a ranked opponent like Minnesota. Tennessee is hot, and did beat three bowl-bound teams plus 6-6 Missouri in this run. But the Vols only faced three ranked teams this season. Via the media guide, that hasn’t happened to Tennessee since 2003 (#17 Florida, #8 Georgia, #6 Miami). Tennessee would’ve been an underdog to the Golden Gophers by around eight points in SP+. It’s a bigger ask on a question this team hasn’t answered yet.

On the other hand, play Louisville in the Music City, and you’re likely a big favorite (around -10 in SP+). Given what our friends from Kentucky just did to them, you have little to gain here.

Instead, it’s Indiana. The name doesn’t do much traditionally in football, but the 8-4 Hoosiers would be a four-point favorite in SP+. It’s an also receiving votes bowl in the Coaches’ Poll; a great performance from either team could earn them a ranked finish.

It’s not a huge opportunity to level up like the Outback Bowl. But Indiana would likely be Tennessee’s best win this season. It’s the right bowl, and the right opportunity.

And it’s January, in primetime, the only game happening on the evening of January 2. This Tennessee team, led by its seniors, has given the program hope when it seemed furthest away. They can be forever tied to a turnaround if the Vols to follow in the 2020’s continue down this path. The Gator Bowl can be a bridge. I’m thrilled to see if they can cross it.

See you in the new year.

With apologies to Peaches & Herb, the theme to Tennessee’s 2019 football season could be sung to the tune of the duo’s “Reunited” song:

“Me-di-oc-re and it feels so gooooooood!”

Indeed, rarely has a season so far below UT’s lofty historical standards felt like such a step forward. The Vols are 7-5 and likely headed either to Jacksonville’s Gator Bowl or Nashville’s Music City Bowl, but the excitement buzzing around the fan base would make you think the Vols leapt to 9-3 in Jeremy Pruitt’s second full season.

Part of the reason, of course, is UT actually SHOULD BE 9-3, had it not been for a debacle of a season-opening loss to Georgia State that was arguably the worst in program history and another sleepwalking fest that ended with Alontae Taylor getting lost against BYU on a prayer pass, sending a game into overtime the Vols ultimately lost and fell to 0-2. (It’s a start that’s keeping a lot of us from jumping 100 percent on board, too…)

Part of the reason is the Vols rallying to win five consecutive games to end the season and six of their final seven, with the only setback being a referee-aided, competitive loss to Alabama in Tuscaloosa.

Both of those are good enough reasons to be okay with a Season 2 Step Forward. But here’s the real reason we all should be cautiously optimistic:

The development is real.

Not since the strides in Lane Kiffin’s lone 2009 season looked so much more promising for the future than the growth the Vols have witnessed this year. Not only were there upperclassmen who’ve shown no signs of life blossom into difference-makers as the season matured, the freshman class has produced arguably more impact guys than any since Butch Jones’ 2014 class. That group of players was loaded, though it largely fell apart throughout his tenure, leading to guys leaving, getting injured or failing to develop.

Could those things happen under Pruitt? Sure. We’re not fortune tellers, after all. But the improvement of the upperclassmen this year is an indicator it won’t happen. He was a proven developer of players as a coordinator during successful stops at Alabama, Florida State and Georgia, and he has surrounded himself with expensive assistants who’ve had success at multiple stops, as well. Those who aren’t producing in the coaching ranks or in recruiting are getting demoted or heading elsewhere.

Pruitt seems determined to make this work, and athletic director Phil Fulmer is giving him the resources with which to work.

When you combine the development with the talent Pruitt has been able to compile, that could be a winning formula for the Vols to get “back,” even though it’s certainly premature to say they’re “back” right now. A stellar end to the 2020 recruiting class is necessary, and another step forward next year could go a long way in solidifying Tennessee’s return. All the Vols did, really, this year is re-emerge ahead of several mediocre-to-bad programs they’ve always been better than. So, while that was a necessary step, it does nothing to help you gain ground on the Alabamas, Georgias and Floridas of the world.

That comes later. For now, we have to look at the overall ’19 body of work and try to glean reasons for excitement. Here are a few:

1. Nigel Warrior’s turnaround: Just how remarkable was the Tennessee senior safety’s season? He went from being a maligned player whose career was written off as late as this year’s Florida game to being named a Pro Football Focus Honorable Mention All-American. Pruitt is known for developing defensive backs, and that’s DC Derrick Ansley’s specialty, too. The light came on in a big way for Warrior, and as we saw positives from other safeties like true freshman Jaylen “Tank” McCullough and Theo Jackson, there’s plenty of reason for excitement moving forward. Toss in Shawn Shamburger going from the doghouse to the penthouse, and it’s obvious the Vols can generate some quality burn out of guys who looked like burned scholarships. Did you ever think a guy like, say, Kenneth George Jr. would blossom into a quality SEC cornerback who shut receivers down at times? Me neither. But he has. That’s coaching and development, folks.
2. The Best Got Better: Warrior is just the poster child for improvement, but one thing to look at as another positive is how much Tennessee’s top-echelon players carried this year’s team. Does it suck they’ll be gone next year? Yes. But some of the Jones recruits who were big parts of bad teams got to be big parts of better teams this year, and they earned our adoration in the process. Jauan Jennings came back from injuries and even being off the team to become near-immortal, Daniel Bituli was a hard-hitting star all year, Marquez Callaway made big play after big play, Darrell Taylor was among the SEC’s sack leaders, and Trey Smith got a huge assist from UT’s medical staff to return from his blood clots issue and become one of the league’s top offensive linemen. You can say all these guys were recruits of the previous regime and try not to give the Pruitt staff credit for this, but this group went from being on a team full of problems to part of a solution. They got to go out winners.
3. A Rejuvenated Rush: The numbers aren’t a ton different from a season ago, but the Vols went from 11th in the league with 25 sacks in 2018 to fourth with 30 sacks this year. In scoring defense, UT went from 12th (27.9) a season ago to seventh this year (21.7). But over the last half of the season, those numbers soared. Did the competition worsen? Yes, but Alabama’s competition was awful all year and the Tide don’t have any asterisks by their name, huh? If you can’t get excited about what Tennessee did to generate a pass rush this year, you don’t know football. It’s still not good enough, but it got much, much better. Besides Taylor, Pruitt seemed to dial up that Shamburger corner blitz at opportune times all season. Then, you’ve got guys like Kivon Bennett and Deandre Johnson, who blossomed into excellent situational players for UT. When you add elite freshmen like Quavaris Crouch and Roman Harrison and their potential to get after the quarterback, you’ve got reasons to be excited about the future. Beyond those guys, there appear to be quality players across the DL with the development of players such as Darel Middleton, Matthew Butler, Kurott Garland, John Mincey, and LaTrell Bumphus. If Greg Emerson and Elijah Simmons can develop, along with perhaps Kingston Harris, Tennessee could have the makings of a deep, versatile defensive line that can get after QBs from all angles.
4. A Trench We Can All Dig: A year ago, I wanted to fire offensive line coach Will Friend. There. I said it. This year, the unit showed signs of life, improving in run blocking throughout the season despite lacking consistency. The group was pretty strong pass-blocking for the majority of the season, despite nearly getting Brian Maurer killed. Darnell Wright and Wanya Morris had growing pains, but they also showed flashes of the cornerstones they’re expected to be. Smith likely won’t return, but if he does, Tennessee could have one of the SEC’s top three lines next year. Brandon Kennedy getting a sixth year of eligibility would be massive, too. K’Rojhn Calbert was a stalwart at times this year, and the freshman duo of Chris Akporghene and Jackson Lampley have bright futures, too. UT has a bunch of potential road-grading maulers on the line, and this was a nice step-forward year. The group still has a ways to go.
5. Help is on the Way: It’s easy to forget Tennessee’s best defensive lineman (Emmit Gooden) was lost for the year before the season started and Aubrey Solomon battled injuries all year but has another season of eligibility. There also are reports DeAngelo Gibbs (a Georgia transfer) was a terror to guard as a receiver this year playing against the scout team. With Jennings and Calloway gone, Gibbs should have a huge role as a redshirt junior. Speaking of redshirts, Brandon Johnson has another season after redshirting and delaying his senior year until next season when he can be a big factor. Could Pruitt be recruiting a bit better from a stars standpoint? Yeah, and I wish he’d do a little better instate. But you can’t fault the guy’s identification of quality players. Another Pruitt class will go a long way in getting “his” players in there, guys with attributes and skill sets he believes he can develop.
6. So Many Potential Stars: How long has it been since Tennessee had a freshman linebacker as elite as Henry To’oto’o? Is he the best first-year ‘backer ever? Better than A.J. Johnson and Curt Maggitt? Better than Jerod Mayo? He may be. There’s no doubt he’ll be calling the defense next year, and he looks like a three-year player early on. Throw in Crouch and Harrison, and that’s a trio of difference-makers on the second level. Eric Gray showed everybody what he can do against Vanderbilt, and he has the type of speed and field vision you cannot teach. All he needs is an opportunity and an offensive line, and there are reasons to believe he’s going to have both. Wright and Morris are going to be special along the offensive front, even if both had freshman blunders. McCullough and Warren Burrell are going to be dynamic defensive backs. Maurer was going to be the future and the present at quarterback until he wasn’t, but there are certainly some moldable traits for the first-year signal-caller, and the future is bright, especially when the competition improves. There are others with plenty of potential, too.

When you look at Tennessee’s roster, there are still holes. But there are also bright spots of players who showed glimpses of potential. Are they role players, or can Pruitt and Co. build them into SEC players capable of helping Tennessee get back to the top of the SEC East? Only time will tell, but that’s the reason you should be excited about 7-5.

This is a mediocre team, but there are plenty of players on it who have the ability to be much better than that.

The LSU Tigers opened as a 7-point favorite over the Georgia Bulldogs in the SEC Championship Game this week, although several online sites had them as only a 3.5-point favorite. As of Friday morning, there seems to be a consensus of LSU -7. We posted earlier that the GRT Statsy Preview Machine likes Georgia to not only cover but win, but here’s the detail on how it arrived at that conclusion and whether I think it’s right.

If you’re new here and wondering what the SPM is and whether it’s reliable, check out this post.

Georgia Bulldogs vs. LSU Tigers

From the perspective of Georgia

Georgia’s points:

• Georgia scoring offense for the season: 32.9
• LSU scoring defense for the season: 22.1

The LSU scoring defense is most similar to the following prior Georgia opponent(s) (FBS only):

• Tennessee 21.7
• Texas A&M 22.7

Georgia scored only 19 points against Texas A&M but 43 against Tennessee. Based on that, the SPM estimates 30.9 points for Georgia against LSU.

LSU’s points:

• Georgia scoring defense for the season: 10.4
• LSU scoring offense for the season: 48.7

The LSU scoring offense is most similar to the following prior Georgia opponent(s):

• Notre Dame 37.1
• Auburn 34

Auburn scored only 14 points against Georgia, and Notre Dame got only 17. That’s under half of what those teams usually get, and based on that, the SPM estimates only 21.4 points for LSU against Georgia.

Estimated score: Georgia 30.9, LSU 21.4

From the perspective of LSU

LSU’s points:

• LSU scoring offense for the season: 48.7
• Georgia scoring defense for the season: 10.4

The Georgia scoring defense is most similar to the following prior LSU opponent(s) (FBS only):

• Florida 14.4
• Auburn 18.6

LSU scored 23 points against Auburn and 42 against Florida, nearly triple against the Gators, but only slightly more than what the Tigers usually allow. Based on that, the SPM estimates 20.5 points for LSU against Georgia.

Georgia’s points:

• LSU scoring defense for the season: 22.1
• Georgia scoring offense for the season: 32.9

The Georgia scoring offense is most similar to the following prior LSU opponent(s):

• Florida 33
• Auburn 34

Auburn scored 20 against LSU, and Florida got 28. Based on that, the SPM estimates 23.7 points for Georgia against LSU.

Estimated score: LSU 20.5, Georgia 23.7

SPM Final Estimates

Throw it in, cook it up, take a peek:

SPM Final estimated score: Georgia 27.3, LSU 21

SPM Final estimated spread: Georgia -6.3

Difference between the SPM and the current spread: 13.3

That difference between the SPM and the current spread makes this game one of the SPM’s favorites this week.

Eyeball adjustments

I’m uncomfortable with some of the volatility in the comps. For example, from Georgia’s perspective, LSU’s scoring defense is nearly identical to both Tennessee’s and Texas A&M’s, but Georgia got 43 against Tennessee and only 19 against A&M. I feel like A&M has pretty much been the same team all year, but the Vols have improved since they played Georgia, and Georgia’s offense seems to have regressed a bit. Basically, I think the estimate for Georgia’s points from Georgia’s perspective of 30.9 is a bit high. I’m thinking more like 24.

The same can be said of LSU’s points from LSU’s perspective. Georgia’s defense is not only much better than the two closest comps of Florida and Auburn, LSU’s results against those comps vary greatly, getting only slightly more against Auburn than what the Tigers usually give up but nearly triple against the Gators of what they usually give up. If Florida is a different team now than it was when those results were posted, then I think LSU’s estimated points of 20.5 might be a bit high as well. On the other hand, LSU’s offense has the feel of a juggernaut, so despite all of that, I’m inclined think that maybe it has that one pegged.

So, my eyeball-adjusted prediction is Georgia 24, LSU 21. I don’t like Georgia as much as the SPM does, but I still like them to not only cover but win outright.

Other predictions from other systems

As I said before, LSU opened as 7-point favorites from most sources, and those that had it there stayed there while the other sites adjusted to get there. With an over/under of 55 or so, that translates to something like LSU 31, Georgia 24.

Bill Connelly’s SP+ likes LSU 29-26, and gives the Tigers a 56% chance of winning.

ESPN’s FPI gives LSU a 55.7% chance of winning.

Bottom line

The SPM likes Georgia to not only cover the -7 spread, it likes the Bulldogs to win outright, and the game is actually in its “favorites” category. After eyeball adjustments, I don’t like them quite as much, but I do also like them to not only cover but win.

• Vegas: LSU -7 (~LSU 31, Georgia 24)
• SP+: LSU 29, Georgia 26 (doesn’t cover)
• SPM: Georgia 27, LSU 21 (doesn’t cover)
• Me: Georgia 24, LSU 21 (doesn’t cover)

What do y’all think?

The SPM was barely up over .500 last week, which is honestly pretty good for Rivalry Week, a notoriously difficult week to predict. Last week, the SPM went 33-31(51.56%) overall, 11-8 (57.89%) over the confidence threshold, and 10-4 (71.43%) on its favorites. (If you’re wondering whether those favorites numbers are different from those in this post, it’s because the numbers above compare to SP+ and therefore use the same spreads that SP+ uses, while the favorites that were posted last week were posted early and therefore used Vegas opening spreads. The SPM is trying to catch SP+, so when possible, we compare to the same spreads.)

For the season, the SPM is now 359-344 (51.07%) overall, 147-114 (56.32%) over the confidence threshold, and 90-52 (63.38%) for the favorites.

SP+ had a difficult time last week, going only 26-38 (41%) overall. One bad week doesn’t undo a terrific season, though, as it’s still sitting pretty at 54% over the entire season.

SPM favorite picks this week

There’s only a handful of games this week, and the SPM only likes two of them: (these are based on the same spreads SP+ is using):

What do y’all think?

Here’s what we think after the release of the final College Football Playoff poll before the real thing on Sunday:

Let’s start with the simple: if Ohio State, LSU, and Clemson win, they’re in. For Tennessee’s purposes, it may not matter if the committee chooses Utah or Oklahoma if they both win. But because Baylor is ranked six spots ahead of Oregon, it’s better for the Vols if Oklahoma earns the #4 spot.

That scenario would give you the top three and the Sooners in the playoff. The Sugar Bowl would take Georgia (assuming the Dawgs don’t drop below a Florida team they beat) and Baylor.

The Rose Bowl would take Utah and either Wisconsin or Penn State. Assuming a team that does not play this week will not jump another team that does not play this week, Florida has the advantage for the Orange Bowl by being ranked ahead of Penn State, and would probably play Virginia (if there are zero non-Clemson, non-Notre Dame ACC teams ranked in the final playoff poll, the Orange Bowl gets to pick itself, but Virginia is the most deserving no matter what happens against the Tigers).

From there, the Cotton Bowl will take the next-highest-ranked team. And this is where everything will get decided as far as Tennessee and the Outback Bowl: is that next-highest-ranked team Wisconsin or Auburn? Or, if the committee takes Utah over Oklahoma, is it Wisconsin, Auburn, or Baylor?

If it’s the Tigers, the Tua-less Tide go to Orlando, and Tennessee’s path to the Outback Bowl is clear. If Wisconsin is ranked ahead of Auburn in the final poll (or Baylor if the committee puts Utah in the playoff), Alabama and Auburn should split the Citrus and Outback, sending the Vols back to the Jacksonville conversation.

Also, if it’s Wisconsin, the Big Ten bowl opponents cycle up, meaning you’re not going to catch anything better than Indiana or an ACC trade-off in the Gator Bowl. If you want to see the Vols level up, it looks like that can only happen in Tampa now.

So, in order of what would be most helpful for Tennessee:

• Ohio State blows out #8 Wisconsin enough for them to fall behind #11 Auburn in the final poll
• The committee takes Oklahoma for its final playoff spot
• Or, the committee takes Utah, and Oklahoma blows out #7 Baylor enough for them to fall behind #11 Auburn in the final poll (an odd scenario probably requiring Utah to simultaneously blow out Oregon)

You get that, you should get Tampa. The Athletic reported earlier today that the Citrus Bowl was locked in on Michigan, meaning Minnesota is still the most likely opponent in the Outback Bowl.