The SPM was barely up over .500 last week, which is honestly pretty good for Rivalry Week, a notoriously difficult week to predict. Last week, the SPM went 33-31(51.56%) overall, 11-8 (57.89%) over the confidence threshold, and 10-4 (71.43%) on its favorites. (If you’re wondering whether those favorites numbers are different from those in this post, it’s because the numbers above compare to SP+ and therefore use the same spreads that SP+ uses, while the favorites that were posted last week were posted early and therefore used Vegas opening spreads. The SPM is trying to catch SP+, so when possible, we compare to the same spreads.)
For the season, the SPM is now 359-344 (51.07%) overall, 147-114 (56.32%) over the confidence threshold, and 90-52 (63.38%) for the favorites.
SP+ had a difficult time last week, going only 26-38 (41%) overall. One bad week doesn’t undo a terrific season, though, as it’s still sitting pretty at 54% over the entire season.
SPM favorite picks this week
There’s only a handful of games this week, and the SPM only likes two of them: (these are based on the same spreads SP+ is using):
| Away | Home | Favorite | Spread | SPM Favorite | SPM Spread | SPM Pick ATS |
| UAB | Florida Atlantic | Florida Atlantic | -7.5 | UAB | -2 | UAB |
| Georgia | LSU | LSU | -7 | Georgia | -6.3 | Georgia |
What do y’all think?